The promise.\u00a0 It\u2019s long been a staple of political campaigns and it\u2019s easy to understand why.\u00a0 Candidates need to find a way to connect with voters, to cut through the messaging clutter, and nothing does the trick quite like a simple, direct \u201cthis is what I\u2019m going to do\u201d statement.\u00a0 The promise, after all, is about much more than words.\u00a0 It reflects a candidate\u2019s vision and confidence.\u00a0 I mean, who wants to vote for someone who\u2019s not-so-sure what the future holds?\u00a0 We want our candidates to be bold, decisive, and optimistic.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s just one danger.\u00a0 What if a candidate gets elected and fails to deliver on a promise or falls short of it?\u00a0 Is a broken promise fatal or do voters today see the promise as a different animal: more a statement of goals and aspirations rather than a contract with (as we say in television) no \u201couts\u201d?<\/p>\n
They\u2019re questions worth asking, because in Wisconsin\u2019s 2014 race for governor, a promise will almost certainly be front and center.\u00a0 It\u2019s the one Governor Scott Walker made in February of 2010, when he said Wisconsin would create 250,000 new private sector jobs in his first term in office (fewer Wisconsinites are likely to remember Democratic candidate Tom Barrett\u2019s goal of creating 180,000 new jobs).\u00a0 Then-candidate Walker based his pledge on numbers that had been achieved by former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in his first four years, and he repeated it again and again to voters and media around the state.\u00a0 When Walker appeared on my \u201cUpFront\u201d television show in late February, I asked him, \u201cIs this a campaign promise?\u00a0 Something you want to be held to?\u201d Walker didn\u2019t hesitate. \u201cAbsolutely,\u201d he replied.\u00a0 \u201cTo me, 250,000 is a minimum.\u00a0 Just a base.\u201d<\/p>\n
The governor is now more than half-way through his first term.\u00a0 At the current pace, businesses in the state would create about half of the 250,000 jobs he promised in his first four years. \u00a0Walker says he\u2019s making progress and still working to achieve the 250,000 goal, but has acknowledged it won\u2019t be easy.<\/p>\n
So here\u2019s the question.\u00a0 What would be the political fallout if the governor fell short of his goal?\u00a0 While he still has another 18 months in his term, Democrats are already hammering Walker on his jobs record, accusing him of backing away from his pledge.\u00a0 To be sure, the state\u2019s job performance will play a major role in next year\u2019s race, but will \u201cthe promise\u201d be a make-or-break issue?<\/p>\n
Recent history provides some interesting food for thought. \u00a0In 1988, Republican presidential nominee George H.W. Bush brought down the house at the GOP national convention by promising, \u201cRead my lips: no new taxes.\u201d\u00a0 But by 1990, President Bush had been forced to raise taxes, and by 1992, his opponents in the fall election, Democrat Bill Clinton and Independent Ross Perot, were questioning Bush\u2019s trustworthiness.\u00a0 While a slumping economy may have had more to do with his defeat, the \u201cread my lips\u201d promise dogged Bush throughout the fall campaign, hurting him with conservative and independent voters.<\/p>\n
Breaking a political promise may have kept the Brewers in Milwaukee, but it cost former Republican state Senator George Petak his job. \u00a0It was 1995, and Petak had promised his Racine County constituents that he would oppose any bill that included their county in the stadium tax district. But at the last minute, with the Miller Park funding legislation in jeopardy, Petak had a change of heart.\u00a0 He voted for the legislation.\u00a0\u00a0Voters were furious and their punishment was swift.\u00a0 Petak faced a recall election in June of 1996, and his Democratic opponent, state Representative Kimberly Plache, pummeled Petak with his promise. His political career was over.\u00a0 Petak would have the distinction of being the first Wisconsin legislator to be successfully recalled from office.<\/p>\n
In contrast, what was perceived as a broken promise did not prove fatal in the 2012 presidential election.\u00a0 In January of 2009, Obama administration officials projected that because of the $825 billion dollar stimulus spending package, unemployment would not climb above 8 per cent.\u00a0 By October of 2009, unemployment stood at 10 per cent.\u00a0 It was still above 8 per cent as the 2012 election year began.\u00a0 Republicans claimed the President had broken his \u201cpromise.\u201d\u00a0 While the report from his administration referred to \u201csignificant margins of error\u201d in its projections and Obama didn\u2019t specifically use the word \u201cpromise,\u201d it was viewed as such by millions of voters.\u00a0 But Obama overcame the criticism to win re-election.\u00a0 He won easily in Wisconsin, by seven percentage points.<\/p>\n
Which brings us to 2014 and how the Walker promise of 2010 might play with voters. First, Walker\u2019s promise is somewhat different than the ones made by Bush and Petak.\u00a0 They pledged specifically not to do something, and then did it.\u00a0\u00a0 For some voters, the flip-flop\u2014no matter what the explanation\u2014is unforgiveable.\u00a0 Combine that with a red-hot issue (tax hikes or Miller Park), and you have an enraged, engaged electorate.\u00a0 But would Walker\u2019s failure to deliver on his 250,000 jobs pledge generate the same intense voter reaction? \u00a0Or have most voters already made up their minds about the governor? \u00a0Polling suggests Walker supporters are fiercely loyal to the candidate.\u00a0 The question is whether failure to hit his 250,000 target would sufficiently motivate enough dissatisfied Democrats and independents to impact an election.<\/p>\n
Second, the broken promise as a campaign weapon is only as effective as its Democratic messenger. In the hands of Bill Clinton, George Bush\u2019s \u201cread my lips\u201d promise was a gift from the political gods. It\u2019s not clear who Walker\u2019s Democratic challenger will be, but he or she will have to articulate not only a convincing critique of Walker\u2019s promise, but an appealing economic roadmap for the future.<\/p>\n
Finally, whether some Wisconsin voters are in the mood to overlook an un-kept promise will depend on what happens to the state\u2019s jobs numbers in the next 12 months. If the pace of job growth improves, the 250,000 pledge may seem less important to voters. \u00a0The governor is already beginning to use a \u201cwe\u2019re on the right track, don\u2019t turn back\u201d theme in interviews and speeches. \u00a0He makes no apologies for aiming high, and says that initial job growth was slowed by the recall turmoil.\u00a0But if Wisconsin continues to trail its Midwestern neighbors in job creation, his explanation could ring hollow with voters. \u00a0Ironically, the governor may have to hope that Wisconsin residents come to the same conclusion about him that they did about President Obama: \u00a0that enough progress has been made on the jobs issue to warrant a second term in office.<\/p>\n
There is a certain peril in the political promise.\u00a0 But for most candidates, it\u2019s a risk worth taking.\u00a0\u00a0 The promise Governor Walker made three-and-a-half years ago helped lead him to victory.\u00a0 And as any political strategist will tell you, you can\u2019t govern unless you win.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The promise.\u00a0 It\u2019s long been a staple of political campaigns and it\u2019s easy to understand why.\u00a0 Candidates need to find a way to connect with voters, to cut through the messaging clutter, and nothing does the trick quite like a simple, direct \u201cthis is what I\u2019m going to do\u201d statement.\u00a0 The promise, after all, is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,122],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-political-processes-rhetoric","category-public","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20675\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}