{"id":22105,"date":"2014-01-27T23:12:45","date_gmt":"2014-01-28T04:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/?p=22105"},"modified":"2014-01-28T12:23:44","modified_gmt":"2014-01-28T17:23:44","slug":"the-promise-revisited","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/2014\/01\/the-promise-revisited\/","title":{"rendered":"The Promise Revisited"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last July, I wrote a post for the Marquette Law School Faculty Blog that was premised on The Promise. The one Scott Walker made when he ran for governor four years ago. Walker pledged that at least 250,000 jobs would be created in Wisconsin during his first term in office. The thrust of the blog post was to look at whether that promise could come back to haunt the Governor in a reelection campaign. You can find my earlier thoughts <a href=\"http:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/2013\/07\/17\/the-promise\/ \">here.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>We won\u2019t know for sure what role The Promise will have played in this year\u2019s race until Election Day, but there are early indications that it may not be the all-powerful political weapon Democrats had hoped for.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not to say job creation isn\u2019t a potential problem for the governor. Wisconsin, according to the most reliable jobs numbers, has lagged behind the national average during Walker\u2019s tenure. The latest tally of \u201cjobs added\u201d shows Wisconsin ranks 37th in private-sector jobs created. With roughly a year left in office, the governor is only <a href=\"http:\/\/www.jsonline.com\/news\/128099318.html      \">42 percent of the way<\/a> to his promise of 250,000.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Walker prefers to talk about the decline in the state\u2019s jobless rate since he took office\u2014from 7.7 to 6.2 percent\u2014and the number of new businesses created during his first three years, which he says exceeds the 10,000 he promised. In his State of the State Address last week, he referred to the 250,000 jobs pledge as \u201can aggressive goal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However you view it, the Marquette Law School Poll released Monday shows that most voters in Wisconsin, 79 percent, now believe the state won\u2019t reach the 250,000 number. That includes a majority of survey respondents who identified themselves as Republicans. Could that have political consequences for the governor? At first glance, the answer might be \u201cyes.\u201d Nearly 70 percent of the 802 people surveyed said meeting or falling short of the 250,000 jobs pledge would be somewhat or very important in determining how they would vote.<\/p>\n<p>But another poll result suggests that while job creation will be a factor in the fall election, it will hardly be the only factor. How else to explain the results of the poll\u2019s \u201cright track\/wrong track\u201d question? Voters were asked, \u201cDo you feel things in Wisconsin are going in the right direction, or on the wrong track?\u201d Fifty-four per cent said in the \u201cright direction.\u201d Forty per cent said \u201cwrong track.\u201d Are reports of a state surplus influencing voter opinion? Is talk of property tax cuts moving the electorate? There are even signs of a shift in public sentiment on the jobs issue. In May of 2013, 49 percent said the state was lagging other states in job creation. In this latest survey, that number had fallen to 40 percent. You can find the complete poll results <a href=\"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/ \">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As I wrote last July, The Promise was a calculated political gamble for then-candidate Walker at the time he made it, and it still carries potential risk. In a head-to-head matchup with the likely Democratic candidate, Mary Burke, Walker leads, 47-41 percent. But while Burke\u2019s number is down slightly, Walker\u2019s number remains below 50, unchanged from the final Law School Poll of 2013. Burke is still not known by most Wisconsin voters. Her campaign still has time to remind voters of Walker\u2019s words. Yet these new poll numbers suggest Burke will have to make a compelling case that she could do better, or tap into \u201cfairness\u201d issues such as the push for a hike in the minimum wage. In the 2014 election, the prospect of a broken jobs promise may not be enough.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last July, I wrote a post for the Marquette Law School Faculty Blog that was premised on The Promise. The one Scott Walker made when he ran for governor four years ago. Walker pledged that at least 250,000 jobs would be created in Wisconsin during his first term in office. The thrust of the blog [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,44,122],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-marquette-law-school","category-political-processes-rhetoric","category-public","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22105","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22105"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22105\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}