{"id":22411,"date":"2014-04-07T08:24:33","date_gmt":"2014-04-07T13:24:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/?p=22411"},"modified":"2014-04-07T08:37:43","modified_gmt":"2014-04-07T13:37:43","slug":"violence-in-the-heartland-part-v-wisconsins-cities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/2014\/04\/violence-in-the-heartland-part-v-wisconsins-cities\/","title":{"rendered":"Violence in the Heartland, Part V: Wisconsin’s Cities"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since 1985, Wisconsin’s seven largest cities have followed markedly different paths in their rates of reported violent crime. \u00a0Two, Waukesha and Appleton, have consistently had lower rates than the state as a whole, while two others, Milwaukee and Racine, have typically had rates that are two to three times higher than the state as a whole. \u00a0Kenosha and Racine have significantly reduced their rates of violence since the 1980s, while the other five cities have experienced sizable net increases.<\/p>\n

Here are the overall trends, in the form of reported violent crimes per 100,000 city residents:<\/p>\n

\"Cities<\/a><\/p>\n

In recent years, as you can see, Waukesha has easily had the lowest rates and Milwaukee the highest. \u00a0Earlier, Appleton used to compete with some success for lowest and Racine for highest.<\/p>\n

Here are the net changes in the cities’ crime rates from 1985-1987 to 2010-2012: \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Racine<\/td>\n-52%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kenosha<\/td>\n-26%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Milwaukee<\/td>\n28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Madison<\/td>\n53%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Green Bay<\/td>\n77%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Waukesha<\/td>\n95%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Appleton<\/td>\n210%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

By this measure, Waukesha and Appleton appear to have done the worst in resisting the general state-wide trend to increased violent crime since the mid-1980s, but, of course, their increases were only large relative to very low baseline numbers. \u00a0Thus, they continue to rank in the top three safest cities on the list. \u00a0In 2012, Waukesha’s rate of violent crime was about half that of the state as a whole, while Appleton’s was about equal to the state’s.<\/p>\n

Kenosha and Racine appear to be the “biggest losers,” although Kenosha’s apparent progress comes with an asterisk. \u00a0The FBI notes of Kenosha, “Due to changes in reporting practices, annexations, and\/or incomplete data, 2002 figures are not comparable to previous years’ data.” \u00a0In 2001, Kenosha reported 547 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, but only 207 the following year — an extraordinary one-year drop that must, at least in part, reflect the issue flagged by the FBI. \u00a0Continued low numbers since 2002 may also result in part from that issue.<\/p>\n

Breaking down the overall violent crime numbers also reveals notable differences among the cities. \u00a0Milwaukee has the highest rate of homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault, but Madison leads in rape. \u00a0Racine leads in burglary (although that crime is not counted in the violent-crime statistics). \u00a0Interestingly, Waukesha, which has the lowest crime rate in most categories, doesn’t do much better than Milwaukee when it comes to rape.<\/p>\n

Here was the breakdown of reported violent crimes in each city in 2012:<\/p>\n

\"violent<\/a><\/p>\n

Note that homicide is such a small part of the violent-crime picture in each of the cities as to be practically invisible on the graph.<\/p>\n

The other three types of violent crime play very different roles in each city. \u00a0For instance, robbery is the major driver of Racine’s violent-crime rate, but is hardly in the picture at all in Appleton. \u00a0Aggravated assaults dominate in Appleton and Green Bay, but are much less prominent in Racine. \u00a0It would be interesting to know why Racine has a robbery rate that is triple Green Bay’s and almost nine times that of Appleton, but an aggravated assault rate that is much lower than those of its northern peers.<\/p>\n

Rape also varies a lot. \u00a0For instance, in Milwaukee, rape is hardly in the picture at all, but, in Waukesha, rape is a major driver of the overall rate of reported violence. \u00a0Waukesha and Appleton are the only two cities in which it seems that your risk of being raped is higher than your risk of being robbed.<\/p>\n

If we look at the breakdowns in 1985, we see a very different picture:<\/p>\n

\"violent<\/a><\/p>\n

In comparing these numbers with those of 2012, what stands out most is the increased prominence of aggravated assault in \u00a0the more recent time period. \u00a0In four of the cities, the aggravated-assault share of violent crime has grown by a large amount. \u00a0Indeed, in all five cities that have reported net increases in violent crime since 1985, aggravated assault has been the major driver of the overall change. \u00a0Conversely, the two cities with net decreases in violence, Kenosha and Racine, have benefitted the most from reductions in reported aggravated assaults.<\/p>\n

This is a good time to note, as I have earlier in this series, that aggravated-assault numbers do not have a great reputation for reliability. \u00a0The line is often fuzzy between aggravated assault, which counts as a violent crime in the official FBI numbers, and simple assault, which does not. \u00a0The uncertainties invite inconsistent or erroneous classifications by police departments, whether inadvertent or intentional. \u00a0To the extent that aggravated assaults are driving the violent-crime trends depicted in my first graph above, those trends must be interpreted with caution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since 1985, Wisconsin’s seven largest cities have followed markedly different paths in their rates of reported violent crime. \u00a0Two, Waukesha and Appleton, have consistently had lower rates than the state as a whole, while two others, Milwaukee and Racine, have typically had rates that are two to three times higher than the state as a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[30,122,14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-criminal-justice","category-public","category-criminal-law","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22411\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}