The Registered and the Likely \u2013 maybe that could be the name of a political soap opera, although I doubt it would attract high ratings in the general public. But it would attract high ratings among those involved in election campaigns and those eager to understand those campaigns and politics overall.<\/p>\n
New results from the Marquette Law School Poll, released Wednesday, put the Registered and the Likely in the spotlight. Among 815 registered voters across the state, Republican Gov. Scott Walker led Democratic challenger Mary Burke 47.5 percent to 44.1 percent in the race for governor. But among 609 participants in the poll who were labeled likely to vote in November, Burke led Walker, 48.6 percent to 46.5 percent.<\/p>\n
So who\u2019s ahead, Walker or Burke? The best answer is that it\u2019s too close to say \u2013 by both measures, the race is within the margin of error of the poll.<\/p>\n
But that doesn\u2019t mean the distinction between registered and likely voters is unimportant, as was shown in other results. Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Law School Poll, described them during the \u201cOn the Issues with Mike Gousha\u201d event at which the poll results were unveiled.<\/p>\n
As part of the poll, people are asked whether they intend to vote in November. Franklin said those who say they are certain to vote are considered likely voters. \u201cAs pollsters, we try to measure both opinions and the likelihood that voters will act on their opinions by voting,\u201d Franklin said in the news release accompanying the poll. \u201cSome registered voters may cast a ballot who today are not certain that they will; on the other hand, even among people registered who say they are absolutely certain to vote, we know that a portion of them won\u2019t actually do so, for turnout on election day is invariably lower than the percentage who say they won\u2019t miss the chance. Still, the differences in involvement and enthusiasm about voting are enormous between the likely voters, who say they are certain to vote, and those who admit there is at least some chance they will stay home from the polls. The difference in vote between likely voters and all registered voters is a measure of the roles turnout and enthusiasm play in the election and tells us which party, at the moment, is enjoying greater intensity.\u201d<\/p>\n
Franklin gave examples of the differences between the likely and less-voters in the new round of results.<\/p>\n
One example: Among those likely to vote, 69 percent said they follow politics \u201cmost of the time.\u201d Among the less likely, the number was 27 percent. A second example: Among likely voters, 26 percent said they had not heard or didn\u2019t know enough about Burke to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her yet; among less likely voters, the figure was 61 percent. Also, less likely voters were more undecided about their choice for governor (14 percent) than likely voters (2 percent).<\/p>\n
And the key to the two different overall outcomes was that less likely voters favored Walker over Burke by 50 percent to 31 percent, while likely voters favored Burke by the 2.1 percentage point margin listed above.<\/p>\n
Building up turnout and taking advantage of the enthusiasm of supporters are central factors in how each campaign is being conducted. Voter turnout is always lower in a non-presidential election, and both campaigns will push in every way they can to get their core supporters to vote on Nov. 4. But one implication of the poll results is that the Walker campaign particularly will have reason to try to convince those who are less committed to voting and Burke campaign strategists will want to do whatever they can to make sure likely voters become actual voters.<\/p>\n