By now, we\u2019ve seen the ads.\u00a0 We\u2019ve heard the talking points. We have at least some idea of which policy positions Scott Walker and Mary Burke favor or oppose.\u00a0 But with only hours remaining before the votes are counted, there is still plenty we don\u2019t know about the 2014 gubernatorial election in Wisconsin.<\/p>\n
Some of it has been hashed over pretty thoroughly.\u00a0 Turnout, for instance.\u00a0 Simply put, the Burke campaign needs less-likely Democratic voters to go to the polls in numbers that more closely resemble a presidential election, or at the very least, the 2012 recall election for governor.\u00a0 Three million people in Wisconsin voted in the November 2012 presidential contest.\u00a0 Two-point-five million voted in the June recall election.\u00a0 If turnout looks more like the governor\u2019s race of 2010, when 2.1 million people went to the polls, the Burke campaign will face enormous odds, given historically strong turnout by Republican voters in the state. \u00a0But turnout is hardly the only \u201cgreat unknown\u201d Tuesday.\u00a0 Here are a handful of others to consider.<\/p>\n
1) Do Democrats return to the fold?\u00a0 Exit polling data from the June 2012 recall election suggests a number of Democrats voted for Governor Walker because they didn\u2019t agree with the recall. Even AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka told me recently that some of his members supported Walker in 2012 because of their discomfort with the recall.\u00a0 And Trumka is hardly a fan of the governor.\u00a0 Walker acknowledges that those voters exist.\u00a0 The question is will they stick with him in this election, or return to their Democratic-voting ways.\u00a0 <\/p>\n
2) How will Republicans and Democrats fare out-state? \u00a0Much of the focus in this election or any election for that matter, is on turnout in Dane, Milwaukee, and the WOW counties\u2014Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington.\u00a0 But keep an eye to the north and west.\u00a0 For example, a top Republican operative calls the Green Bay market the Walker campaign\u2019s \u201choly grail.\u201d\u00a0 The governor has had particularly strong showings in northeast Wisconsin in his prior two elections.\u00a0 Democrats say they need to hold down Walker margins in that part of the state and in central Wisconsin, but aren\u2019t being helped by less-than-competitive congressional races in those areas.<\/p>\n
3) What impact will the gender gap have?\u00a0 Polls show Walker fares better with men.\u00a0 Burke does better with women.\u00a0 But the size of the gender gap will be key to each candidate\u2019s fortunes.\u00a0 In November of 2012, the Democratic candidate, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, was able to defeat former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson by winning women voters by a significant margin, and by keeping it close with male voters.<\/p>\n
4) Will secondary issues matter?\u00a0 This has been an election about jobs and the performance of the Wisconsin economy.\u00a0 But at the beginning of the campaign, Democrats said they were not only looking to boost turnout, but were hoping to peel away two percent of female GOP voters, who may have reservations about the governor\u2019s education policies or new GOP-backed abortion laws in the state.<\/p>\n
5) What about those \u201cother\u201d questions on the ballot? In some communities in Wisconsin, you\u2019ll need to plan on spending extra time in the voting booth. That\u2019s because non-binding referenda questions have been added to a number of county and city ballots. \u00a0Twelve municipalities will weigh in on whether to raise the minimum wage.\u00a0 Twenty will vote on whether to accept federal dollars to expand Medicaid. And six municipalities will consider measures related to the Supreme Court\u2019s Citizens United ruling. Republicans say the additional items are a waste of money and a cynical effort by Democrats to boost turnout.\u00a0 Supporters of the non-binding referenda say they serve an important purpose, letting people voice their opinion on major policy issues and even influencing elected officials. What we don\u2019t know is whether these ballot measures will actually motivate potential voters to go to the polls.<\/p>\n
6) Is President Obama on the ballot in Wisconsin?\u00a0 Obviously, there is no presidential contest this year.\u00a0 There\u2019s not even a U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin.\u00a0 But the governor and his supporters are attempting to nationalize the election by linking Mary Burke to the president.\u00a0 The latest Marquette Law School Poll shows why.\u00a0 Obama\u2019s job approval rating in Wisconsin is now decidedly negative, the lowest in the poll\u2019s history.\u00a0 Burke has apparently decided the president is a risk\/reward proposition, the risk of appearing with Obama offset by the potential reward of increased turnout. \u00a0It\u2019s doubtful that Obama will decide the governor\u2019s race in Wisconsin, but it\u2019s safe to say that a more popular president would have made Burke\u2019s job just a little bit easier.<\/p>\n
Of course, after Election Day, the questions keep right on coming.\u00a0 If Governor Walker is re-elected, will he run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016?\u00a0 If Mary Burke is elected, where will she find common ground with Republicans, who are likely to be more conservative and in control of both houses of the legislature?\u00a0 But those are unknowns for another day. Wednesday, at least.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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