The title of Paul Taylor\u2019s recent book refers to \u201ca looming generational showdown\u201d as America changes. But Taylor, a senior fellow at the Pew Research Center in Washington, didn\u2019t strike a particularly ominous tone as he described what lies ahead during an \u201cOn the Issues with Mike Gousha\u201d session at Eckstein Hall on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
There were three reasons for that. First, Taylor described himself as \u201ca glass half-full guy,\u201d generally inclined to be optimistic. Second, he said America has dealt successfully with many challenges in its history. And third, he said the foremost challenge \u2013 how a big surge in Social Security and Medicare benefits for retirees will be supported by the workforce of a few years from now \u2013 can be handled successfully if Congress and the president are willing to do so.<\/p>\n
In his book, “The Next America: Boomers, Millenials and the Looming Generational Showdown,” and in his conversation in the Appellate Courtroom, Taylor gave a wide-ranging, insightful, and occasionally light-hearted tour of big changes in the demographics of America.<\/p>\n
That starts with two major shifts: The baby-boomers, born in the post-World War II years, are reaching retirement age, and the nation as a whole is heading toward becoming a \u201cmajority-minority\u201d nation with more people who are not white than who are. Furthermore, the baby boomers are predominantly white and younger segments of the population are much more diverse in race and ethnicity, and the older population generally votes differently and has different attitudes toward social issues than the younger portion. The result is a population where, in broad strokes, you have older and younger segments that don\u2019t look alike or think alike, Taylor said.<\/p>\n
But, Taylor said, the story doesn\u2019t need to end badly. He cited trends that show that \u201cmillennials,\u201d even as they deal with different career and financial prospects than their parents faced, are leading more stable lives, with positive trends on such fronts as health and education, than some experts feared would be true. He said young adults are general optimistic and \u201caspirational\u201d about their lives, and he joked that, when it came to their social practices overall, people might label them \u201ckids gone mild.\u201d<\/p>\n
One reason for optimism about the future, in Taylor\u2019s view: The impact of immigration. While immigration is the source of great controversy, Taylor said recent immigrants, with only one out of ten among them from Europe, are following much of the traditional immigrant pattern of putting down solid roots economically and socially in the US. Without the current immigrants, the American economy would be weaker and the prospects of supporting baby boomers in their retirement years would not be as good, Taylor said. He called immigration \u201cthe gift that keeps on giving\u201d to American vitality.<\/p>\n
Taylor described dramatic shifts in American practices and thinking when it comes to marriage, including the percentage of younger people who are not married, the percentage of marriages that cross ethnic or racial lines, and the acceptance of marriages or relationships involving single-sex couples. He described how the Super Bowl telecast in January 2014 included commercials from Chevrolet, Cheerios, and Coke that featured couples that you would not have seen in such commercials even relatively recently. Major corporations know that the country is changing and want to be sure they are appealing to the current population, he said.<\/p>\n
Taylor\u2019s research found that, every day, about 10,000 baby boomers are retiring. He told Gousha, the Law School\u2019s distinguished fellow in law and public policy, that Social Security and Medicare both have overwhelming support, even among young adults who doubt they will benefit from them in the long run. At the same time, \u201cthe math of these programs doesn\u2019t work, and everyone knows it.\u201d The proportion of tax-paying current workers to retirees who expect to collect benefits is shifting in ways that are concerning.<\/p>\n
The longer we wait to fix this, the harder it will be to fix, Taylor said. But Congress hasn\u2019t done it yet, since most solutions involve steps, such as altering benefits or increasing taxes, that are politically unpopular. \u201cThis is not an easy thing, but it\u2019s a necessary thing,\u201d Taylor said.<\/p>\n
But Taylor was generally positive about the future of the country. \u201cWarts and all, we\u2019re a pretty tough society,\u201d he said, and that will help in dealing with the challenges of today and the future.<\/p>\n