{"id":25981,"date":"2016-11-03T09:50:43","date_gmt":"2016-11-03T14:50:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/?p=25981"},"modified":"2016-11-03T09:50:43","modified_gmt":"2016-11-03T14:50:43","slug":"remember-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/2016\/11\/remember-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Remember Us?"},"content":{"rendered":"

It was a long time coming, but Wisconsin seems to have finally regained its \u201ckey battleground state\u201d status in this year\u2019s presidential election. At least for the moment, anyway.\u00a0 For much of this election cycle, we\u2019ve been missing out on the action, a second tier state that Democrats believed would be theirs on Election Day, never seriously in jeopardy.<\/p>\n

If it takes two to tango, Wisconsin has been missing a dance partner. \u00a0While Republican nominee Donald Trump has been to Wisconsin five times, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton hasn\u2019t been here once. It might be argued that given Clinton\u2019s struggles in Wisconsin\u2014a crushing primary loss in 2008 to then-Sen. Barack Obama and a 2016 April primary defeat which saw her lose 71 of 72 counties to Sen. Bernie Sanders\u2014surrogates like Sanders and Chelsea Clinton might be more effective campaigners than the nominee herself. Whatever the reason, Clinton has focused her personal attention on other states. Her campaign only recently began running ads in Wisconsin, a true indicator of a state\u2019s relative importance in the election.<\/p>\n

But if you believe recent public opinion surveys in the first tier battleground states of North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio, the race has tightened considerably.\u00a0 Wednesday, Real Clear Politics released its latest Electoral College \u201cNo Toss Ups\u201d Map. <\/a>Using the latest state-by-state polling, Clinton would squeeze out the narrowest of victories in the Electoral College, 273 votes for her, 265 for Trump.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s why Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes suddenly matter.\u00a0 Again.\u00a0 You need 270 votes to win, and under at least one scenario, Wisconsin could be the state to put Trump over the top. Let that sink in for a moment.\u00a0 Donald Trump needs<\/em> Wisconsin, the state that rejected him in the April GOP primary.\u00a0 The state where influential conservative media figures still refuse to support him.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the Marquette Law School Poll <\/a>released on Wednesday. It showed Trump trailing 46%-40% in Wisconsin.\u00a0 That, despite the same poll showing Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson running neck and neck against former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold.\u00a0 So it\u2019s possible the Trump campaign might focus more on Michigan or Pennsylvania in the remaining days of the campaign, meaning our \u201ckey battleground state\u201d status might be fleeting.<\/p>\n

Then again, Trump could decide it\u2019s worth making a stand in Wisconsin. It\u2019s easy to understand the allure. \u00a0First, there\u2019s a huge potential cache of Republican votes in the WOW counties\u2014Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington\u2014still available to Trump.\u00a0 But so far, the Law School Poll has shown the GOP nominee struggling to win over voters in the Milwaukee suburbs, an area that went overwhelmingly for Ted Cruz in the April primary. Given his strong performance in the Green Bay market, Trump may not need to replicate the 68% -32% percent margin Mitt Romney had over President Barack Obama in the WOW counties in 2012. \u00a0What he can\u2019t afford is to have a dramatic drop off in a part of the state that has been as reliably Republican as any region in the country.<\/p>\n

Second, Johnson\u2019s showing in the Law School Poll offers hope for Trump.\u00a0 The Republican incumbent\u2019s performance in the WOW counties has been consistently better than Trump\u2019s. Tuesday night in Eau Claire, Johnson made his first campaign appearance with Trump. He was joined by Governor Scott Walker and Congressman Sean Duffy, a show of support that essentially told reluctant Republicans that it\u2019s okay to cast a ballot for Trump.<\/p>\n

Third, the state Republican Party has built a battle-tested get-out-the-vote operation that rivals any in the country.\u00a0 Party officials believe if polling has the race within two or three points by Election Day, their GOTV operation can make up the difference.<\/p>\n

And finally, Trump seems to genuinely believe that this election will be \u201cBrexit times five.\u201d In Trump\u2019s world view, the pollsters and pundits aren\u2019t accurately capturing the deep disillusionment found in places like Wisconsin, with its older, white, blue collar population.<\/p>\n

The path to victory for Trump is a narrow one, so winning Wisconsin appears to be as good a bet as any. That won\u2019t be easy, but it could mean we\u2019re a key battleground state again. If only for a few days.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It was a long time coming, but Wisconsin seems to have finally regained its \u201ckey battleground state\u201d status in this year\u2019s presidential election. At least for the moment, anyway.\u00a0 For much of this election cycle, we\u2019ve been missing out on the action, a second tier state that Democrats believed would be theirs on Election Day, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[162,44,122],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-marquette-law-school-poll","category-political-processes-rhetoric","category-public","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25981\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}