{"id":29157,"date":"2020-04-01T12:56:28","date_gmt":"2020-04-01T17:56:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/?p=29157"},"modified":"2020-04-01T19:21:20","modified_gmt":"2020-04-02T00:21:20","slug":"an-anything-but-normal-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/2020\/04\/an-anything-but-normal-election\/","title":{"rendered":"An Anything But Normal Election"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the press release for today\u2019s Marquette University Law School Poll<\/a>, you\u2019ll find the following sentence: \u201cGiven the uncertainty created by historically high levels of absentee voting and the unknown levels of election day turnout, these results should be viewed with more than the usual caution.\u201d<\/p>\n

Poll Director Charles Franklin is referring specifically to the polling numbers in the Democratic presidential primary. But his note of caution seems wise as we careen toward next Tuesday\u2019s election.<\/p>\n

Put another way, we don\u2019t know what we don\u2019t know about this spring election.<\/p>\n

After reporting, writing, and talking about Wisconsin politics for 40 years, I thought I had seen it all. I was wrong.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s spring election cycle has been overwhelmed by a modern-day pandemic.\u00a0 Political contests \u00a0that would have been front and center have understandably taken a backseat to a life and death matter. \u00a0<\/em>This will be anything but a normal election. \u00a0At least by Wisconsin standards.<\/p>\n

Despite a record request for absentee ballots, turnout is likely to be down, perhaps significantly.\u00a0 Because of COVID-19 concerns, Governor Evers is urging people to stay in their homes and cast their ballots by mail. \u00a0Thousands of poll workers\u2014often older citizens\u2014are choosing not to work next Tuesday \u00a0because they\u2019re worried about getting sick. \u00a0As a result, some early voting locations in Milwaukee closed. \u00a0As few as 10 of the city\u2019s usual 180 polling locations will be open next Tuesday. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel <\/em>reports that the city of Waukesha\u2014a city of 67,000 people\u2014will operate only one of its 15 poll locations on Election Day. The governor has asked members of the Wisconsin National Guard to help out by acting as poll workers.<\/p>\n

In-person voting on Tuesday will almost certainly show a steep drop-off, but the findings in the MU Law School survey raise an interesting question: Will Republican voters be more likely to go to the polls than Democratic voters? The poll shows Republican voters are somewhat less worried about getting the coronavirus. So far, typically red counties in Wisconsin have been less affected by the outbreak, perhaps making a trip to the polls seem less risky.<\/p>\n

Adding to the uniqueness of this election is the likelihood that we may not know the winners of some races until after election day. That\u2019s because of the enormous increase in absentee ballots, all of which will have to be counted.<\/p>\n

When the final tally is done, there will be winners and losers.\u00a0 Just like in a typical spring election. But while the winners will serve, the losers will wonder what might have happened in a more normal April election?<\/p>\n

Overshadowed by the current health threat, lesser known candidates on the April ballot have had fewer opportunities to introduce themselves to potential voters, to break into the public consciousness.\u00a0 Except for a Milwaukee County Executive debate aired on WISN-TV before the governor told residents to stay home, most head-to-head matchups in key local races were canceled because of health concerns.\u00a0 That included two events scheduled for this week at Marquette University Law School: the only debate in the race for mayor of Milwaukee, and the final debate in the April election for Supreme Court justice. Both debates, part of a decade-long partnership with WISN-TV, would have been watched by thousands on live television.<\/p>\n

In normal times, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and challenger State Senator Lena Taylor would be discussing the city\u2019s fiscal, safety, housing, and racial issues.\u00a0 Instead, Barrett finds himself in the news almost daily, talking about the city\u2019s efforts to fight the coronavirus. The virus has made the race more challenging for Taylor. She has criticized the mayor\u2019s handling of public health matters.\u00a0 But as the incumbent, Barrett is in a leadership position at a time of crisis. \u00a0COVID-19 has dominated the final weeks of the contest in a way that couldn\u2019t have been anticipated.\u00a0 Barrett even had to self-quarantine.<\/p>\n

The COVID-19 threat may have also deprived Wisconsin of having at least some significance in the nation\u2019s Democratic presidential primary.\u00a0 While Joe Biden had become the clear frontrunner in the nomination process, Wisconsin was a state Sen. Bernie Sanders had easily won in 2016.\u00a0 It might have served as the Sanders campaign\u2019s last, best chance to change momentum in the race.\u00a0 On the other hand, a convincing win by Biden after a competitive primary battle might have effectively ended the race for the nomination.<\/p>\n

But that scenario never played out. \u00a0Biden and Sanders had to pause their campaigns.\u00a0 Wisconsin is no longer a \u201cnormal\u201d primary election. The results matter less.\u00a0 Sanders said this week his campaign will continue.<\/p>\n

In turn, the lack of a robust primary battle in Wisconsin also has implications for the race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court.\u00a0 A year ago, Democrats, buoyed by expectations of a competitive presidential primary, were optimistic about their chances of defeating Justice Daniel Kelly in the officially non-partisan race.\u00a0 But the candidate Democrats prefer, Judge Jill Karofsky, may not get the turnout boost her campaign was hoping for. It\u2019s also unclear how an election heavily reliant on absentee ballots will affect the race.<\/p>\n

There are still some signs of normalcy in this election cycle.\u00a0 We get campaign literature in the mail. We see TV ads that remind us that election day is near. Social media continues to churn.<\/p>\n

Should the election have been moved?\u00a0 The electorate seems split on that question.\u00a0 In the latest MU Law Poll, 51% of voters said the date of the April 7 election should be moved, while 44% said it should be held as scheduled.<\/p>\n

As of today, the election will be held April 7.\u00a0 But while there will be winners and losers, it will be anything but normal.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the press release for today\u2019s Marquette University Law School Poll, you\u2019ll find the following sentence: \u201cGiven the uncertainty created by historically high levels of absentee voting and the unknown levels of election day turnout, these results should be viewed with more than the usual caution.\u201d Poll Director Charles Franklin is referring specifically to the 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