{"id":30800,"date":"2024-05-21T14:05:13","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T19:05:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/?p=30800"},"modified":"2024-05-21T14:05:13","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T19:05:13","slug":"how-population-is-changing-in-wisconsin-and-the-upper-midwest-since-the-pandemic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/facultyblog\/2024\/05\/how-population-is-changing-in-wisconsin-and-the-upper-midwest-since-the-pandemic\/","title":{"rendered":"How population is changing in Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest since the pandemic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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(This post also appeared in The Recombobulation Area<\/a>).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The official census count occurs just once every ten years, and it\u2019s out of date by the time it gets released.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last census was officially conducted on April 1, 2020, so it missed essentially all the population changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. But each year, the U.S. Census Bureau also releases \u201cintercensal\u201d population estimates. These are based on carefully collected<\/a> administrative records (births, deaths, tax returns, etc.), and they give us the best look at how our current population is changing. The estimates cover 12-month periods beginning on July 1. The latest data covers the year from July 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pandemic and its aftermath is still the big story in this data. Cities across the country shrank. Some, like Detroit<\/a>, have begun to grow. Despite Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson\u2019s well-publicized goal of \u201c1 million Milwaukeeans<\/a>,\u201d the city\u2019s population recovery has yet to begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates show positive signs for Wisconsin, but continued struggles for Milwaukee, relative to our midwestern peers. Wisconsin has largely returned to pre-pandemic form, while Milwaukee County is continuing to shrink at twice the rate of the 2010s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wisconsin added 20,000 net new residents from July 2022 to July 2023, a growth rate of 0.35%, which is practically identical to the state\u2019s average growth rate during the previous decade. That growth was nearly double the state\u2019s increase of 11,000 in 2022, which came on the heels of a 17,000-person loss in the first year of the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Population change can be broken down into two components \u2014 net migration and natural change (births minus deaths). The next graph shows why each state grew or shrank over the past three years. Wisconsin\u2019s 2023 growth rate falls below Minnesota and Indiana but above Michigan and Iowa. Illinois is still shrinking badly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"bar<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Each state has followed a different trajectory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n