Marquette Law School Poll finds very close presidential, U.S. Senate races in Wisconsin
Enthusiasm gap in presidential race, favoring Trump; enthusiasm overall for voting considerably lower than four years ago
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 51% of registered voters and Democratic President Joe Biden by 49%. Among likely voters also, Trump is the choice of 51% and Biden of 49%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% and Republican challenger Eric Hovde by 47% among registered voters. Among likely voters, the race is a tie, with 50% for both Baldwin and Hovde. These results include initially undecided voters who are then asked which candidate they would pick if they had to decide. The initial question, including undecided voters, produces slightly different results, with Baldwin at 44%, Hovde at 37%, and undecided at 18% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin was favored by 45%, Hovde by 41%, and 15% were initially undecided.
In January, Trump received 49% and Biden 49% among registered voters, and Trump received 50% and Biden 49% among likely voters. Those results included initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose between Biden and Trump. The recent trend in vote choice is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump
| Poll dates | Vote choice | ||
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Haven’t decided/Neither | |
| Registered voters | |||
| 4/3-10/24 | 49 | 51 | 0 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 49 | 2 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 50 | 48 | 1 |
| Likely voters | |||
| 4/3-10/24 | 49 | 51 | 0 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 50 | 1 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 50 | 48 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | |||
The survey was conducted April 3-10, 2024, interviewing 814 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. Of the full sample, 736 are considered likely voters, and the margin of error for that group is +/-5 percentage points.
The initial question on the presidential race includes the option for “haven’t decided.” Among registered voters, the undecided have declined from 12% in November to 8% in April. The trend in vote choice, including undecided, is shown in Table 2. A higher proportion of registered voters remain undecided than among likely voters. In each case, the undecided group remains larger than the margin between the candidates.
Table 2: Vote for Biden or Trump, including initially undecided
| Poll dates | Vote choice | ||
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Haven’t decided | |
| Registered voters | |||
| 4/3-10/24 | 44 | 47 | 8 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 44 | 44 | 12 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 45 | 42 | 12 |
| Likely voters | |||
| 4/3-10/24 | 45 | 48 | 6 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 44 | 46 | 10 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 47 | 45 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? | |||
When third-party candidates are included (and the undecided are asked to pick), Trump receives 41% and Biden 40% among registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 13%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein is the choice of 3%, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2%.
Among likely voters in the five-way race, Trump is the choice of 42%, Biden 41%, Kennedy 12%, Stein 3%, and West 1%. The trend is shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Vote including third party candidates
| Poll dates | Vote choice | |||||
| Biden | Trump | Kennedy, Jr. | Stein | West | Don’t know | |
| Registered voters | ||||||
| 4/3-10/24 | 40 | 41 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 37 | 40 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Likely voters | ||||||
| 4/3-10/24 | 41 | 42 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 39 | 41 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? | ||||||
Presidential vote by party identification
Table 4 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Among Democrats, 97% support Biden with 3% crossing over to Trump. Among Republicans, 91% say they will vote for Trump with 9% crossing over to Biden. Independents lean substantially to Trump in this month’s survey, with 59% for Trump and 41% voting for Biden. Partisan loyalty is at its highest level since November for both parties in the April poll.
Independents have varied in which candidate they support in recent polling, as seen in Table 5. The variability in independent vote is due to both lack of partisan attachment and to the small sample size among independents, who make up 12% of registered voters in this survey.
Table 4: Vote for Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | ||
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Haven’t decided/Neither | |
| 4/3-10/24 | |||
| Republican | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Independent | 41 | 59 | 0 |
| Democrat | 97 | 3 | 0 |
| 1/24-31/24 | |||
| Republican | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Independent | 49 | 42 | 8 |
| Democrat | 91 | 9 | 0 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | |||
| Republican | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Independent | 47 | 47 | 4 |
| Democrat | 94 | 6 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | |||
In the five-way ballot test, Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans than from Democrats and an especially large share from independents. Stein and West take more votes from Democrats than from Republicans. Independents are much more likely to support one of the third-party candidates than are either Democrats or Republicans. These results are shown in Table 6.
Table 5: Five-way ballot, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||||
| Biden | Trump | Kennedy, Jr. | Stein | West | Don’t know | |
| 4/3-10/24 | ||||||
| Republican | 4 | 79 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Independent | 23 | 32 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Democrat | 85 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 1/24-31/24 | ||||||
| Republican | 5 | 76 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Independent | 33 | 27 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Democrat | 73 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or Green Party’s Jill Stein? | ||||||
Senate vote by party identification
Among Democratic registered voters, Baldwin receives the support of 94% and Hovde wins 6%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 85%, while Baldwin takes 13%. Independents substantially favor Baldwin by 61% to Hovde’s 37%.
With likely voters, partisan loyalty is slightly higher for both parties, but independents split almost evenly, 51% for Baldwin and 49% for Hovde.
Table 6: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||
| Poll dates | Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde | Haven’t decided | |
| Registered voters | ||||
| Republican | 4/3-10/24 | 13 | 85 | 2 |
| Independent | 4/3-10/24 | 61 | 37 | 2 |
| Democrat | 4/3-10/24 | 94 | 6 | 0 |
| Likely voters | ||||
| Republican | 4/3-10/24 | 11 | 87 | 2 |
| Independent | 4/3-10/24 | 51 | 49 | 1 |
| Democrat | 4/3-10/24 | 95 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between Eric Hovde, the Republican, and Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat, would you vote for Eric Hovde or for Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you decided? | ||||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Hovde or for Baldwin? | ||||
Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting
Registered voters are less enthusiastic about voting than they were in March 2020, as shown in Table 7. In the current survey, 47% say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in November, compared to 67% in late March 2020. Enthusiasm has fluctuated over the most recent three polls, with a small increase in “not at all enthusiastic,” rising from 6% in November to 12% in April.
Table 7: Enthusiasm to vote in November election
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Enthusiasm | |||
| Very | Somewhat | Not too | Not at all | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 47 | 22 | 18 | 12 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 25 | 17 | 9 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 46 | 28 | 19 | 6 |
| 3/24-29/20 | 67 | 21 | 7 | 5 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
| Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
Those who are more enthusiastic substantially prefer Trump to Biden, while those less enthusiastic prefer Biden to Trump, as shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm
Among registered voters
| Enthusiasm | Vote choice 2024 | ||
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Haven’t decided/Neither | |
| Very enthusiastic | 41 | 59 | 0 |
| Somewhat enthusiastic | 45 | 55 | 0 |
| Not too enthusiastic | 64 | 36 | 0 |
| Not at all enthusiastic | 62 | 37 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | |||
| Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | |||
Favorability of presidential candidates
Table 9 shows the trend in favorability to presidential candidates among all registered voters. All the candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably, and the independent or third-party candidates are much less well known than Biden or Trump.
Biden’s net favorability has been increasingly negative, while Trump’s is less net negative than in November. Biden is now more net negative than Trump, reversing the order of November.
Table 9: Favorability to presidential candidates
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| Joe Biden | ||||
| 4/3-10/24 | -19 | 40 | 59 | 1 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -17 | 41 | 58 | 1 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | -14 | 42 | 56 | 2 |
| Donald Trump | ||||
| 4/3-10/24 | -13 | 43 | 56 | 1 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -18 | 40 | 58 | 1 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | -24 | 37 | 61 | 2 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | ||||
| 4/3-10/24 | -15 | 30 | 45 | 25 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 2 | 35 | 33 | 32 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | -8 | 31 | 39 | 30 |
| Cornel West | ||||
| 4/3-10/24 | -8 | 7 | 15 | 75 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -12 | 7 | 19 | 73 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | -14 | 6 | 20 | 69 |
| Jill Stein | ||||
| 4/3-10/24 | -13 | 8 | 21 | 69 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -14 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? | ||||
A significant share of voters, 17%, see both Biden and Trump unfavorably, a number that has held quite steady. Their combined favorability trend is shown in Table 10.
Table 10: Combined favorability to Biden and Trump
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Combined Favorability | ||||
| Biden fav, Trump fav | Biden fav, Trump unfav | Biden unfav, Trump fav | Biden unfav, Trump unfav | DK Biden or Trump | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 2 | 38 | 41 | 17 | 2 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 2 | 40 | 38 | 18 | 2 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 1 | 41 | 36 | 18 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? | |||||
Baldwin’s net favorability has improved since January, rising to +5 from -3. Hovde’s net favorability has declined slightly, from -2 to -5. Both candidates are better known in April than they were last June. The percent saying they haven’t heard enough about Baldwin has decreased from 22% in June to 11% in April. Hovde is much less well known but has seen dramatically improved public awareness of him, going from 85% who didn’t know enough about him in June to 56% in April. These trends are shown in Table 11.
Table 11: Favorability to Senate candidates
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| Tammy Baldwin | ||||
| 4/3-10/24 | 5 | 47 | 42 | 11 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -3 | 42 | 45 | 13 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | -2 | 41 | 43 | 15 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 3 | 40 | 37 | 22 |
| Eric Hovde | ||||
| 4/3-10/24 | -5 | 19 | 24 | 56 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -2 | 7 | 9 | 82 |
| 6/8-13/23 | -4 | 4 | 8 | 85 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? | ||||
Coincidentally, in 2012 both Baldwin and Hovde were non-incumbent candidates in their respective party’s Senate primaries, allowing a comparison of current results to their first efforts in statewide campaigns.
Baldwin, a member of Congress in 2012, was better known than Hovde throughout the pre-primary season, though over 30% said they did not know enough about her up to the date of the August primary. After the primary Baldwin became better known, with those not knowing enough to give an opinion about her falling to 15% in the final poll before the November election. Her net favorability was generally in the negative single digits. Baldwin was unopposed in the 2024 Democratic primary.
Hovde was somewhat less well known through most of the 2012 pre-primary campaign than he is in this year’s April poll, with more than 60% then saying they didn’t know enough to have an opinion of him. This declined to 49% in the final 2012 pre-primary poll. His net favorability fluctuated in the positive single digits, but fell to -4 in the final pre-primary poll. Hovde faced a four-person Republican primary, losing to former Gov. Tommy Thompson, 34% to 31%.
These trends are shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Favorability to Senate candidates in 2012
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| Tammy Baldwin | ||||
| 10/25-28/12 | -8 | 36 | 44 | 15 |
| 10/11-14/12 | -16 | 31 | 47 | 18 |
| 9/27-30/12 | -2 | 37 | 39 | 20 |
| 9/13-16/12 | 5 | 36 | 31 | 28 |
| 8/16-19/12 | -5 | 32 | 37 | 27 |
| 8/2-5/12 | -5 | 30 | 35 | 32 |
| 7/5-8/12 | -5 | 26 | 31 | 38 |
| 6/13-16/12 | -3 | 27 | 30 | 39 |
| 5/23-26/12 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 39 |
| 3/22-25/12 | -6 | 20 | 26 | 46 |
| 2/16-19/12 | -6 | 21 | 27 | 49 |
| 1/19-22/12 | 2 | 23 | 21 | 50 |
| Eric Hovde | ||||
| 8/2-5/12 | -4 | 21 | 25 | 49 |
| 7/5-8/12 | 7 | 19 | 12 | 61 |
| 6/13-16/12 | 1 | 14 | 13 | 62 |
| 5/23-26/12 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 61 |
| 3/22-25/12 | -3 | 6 | 9 | 69 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Jan.-Oct. 2012 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? | ||||
Issues in the campaign
Table 13 shows which presidential candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy, and holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Biden has an advantage in perceptions on Medicare and Social Security, abortion policy, and health care.
A substantial percentage, between 15%-26%, say on each issue that both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing an opportunity for change in these perceptions.
Table 13: Which candidate would do a better job on issues
Among registered voters
| Issue | Who better | |||
| Biden | Trump | Both about the same | Neither good | |
| Immigration and border security | 28 | 53 | 8 | 11 |
| Israel-Hamas war | 26 | 46 | 8 | 18 |
| The economy | 34 | 52 | 9 | 6 |
| Foreign relations | 41 | 44 | 5 | 10 |
| Medicare and Social Security | 45 | 37 | 12 | 6 |
| Abortion policy | 46 | 37 | 7 | 10 |
| Health care | 45 | 35 | 12 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue? | ||||
Respondents were asked which of seven issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration, abortion policy, and Medicare and Social Security. The other issues remain in single digits, as shown in Table 14.
Table 14: Most important issues
Among registered voters
| Response | Percent |
| The economy | 33 |
| Immigration and border security | 21 |
| Abortion policy | 13 |
| Medicare and Social Security | 11 |
| Foreign relations | 6 |
| Health care | 5 |
| The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | 2 |
| Don’t know | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | |
| Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? | |
Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 15. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy and immigration as their two top issues, with Medicare and Social Security as their third highest concern. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, closely followed by the economy and Medicare and Social Security.
Table 15: Most important issues by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Issue | |||||||
| The economy | Immigration and border security | Health care | Foreign relations | Abortion policy | Medicare & Social Security | The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | Don’t know | |
| Republican | 43 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Independent | 31 | 23 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| Democrat | 22 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 11 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||||||||
| Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? | ||||||||
Immigration
Views of immigration and the policy that should be pursued concerning people who are in the country illegally vary with how the question is framed. The question that has been asked since 2012 is framed in terms of undocumented people currently working in the U.S.
Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.?
- They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship
- They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship
- They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.
Just under half say undocumented workers should be allowed to stay and eventually apply for citizenship, while nearly a third say they should be required to leave the country and about a sixth say they should stay only as guest workers.
The option to stay and eventually apply for citizenship for undocumented immigrants is favored by 49% in the current poll, down from 67% in February 2020 and 64% in April 2022.
There has been an increase in the percentage saying that these immigrants should be required to leave the U.S., which is 30% in the April poll. That is up from 13% in Feb. 2020 and 16% in April 2022. This is the highest support for requiring undocumented residents to leave the country in the 22 polls that have asked this question. The full trend is shown in Table 16.
Table 16: Policy toward undocumented immigrants working in the U.S.
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Policy options | |||
| Stay and apply for citizenship | Stay as temporary guest workers | Required to leave jobs and U.S. | Don’t know | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 49 | 16 | 30 | 5 |
| 4/19-24/22 | 64 | 16 | 16 | 4 |
| 2/19-23/20 | 67 | 15 | 13 | 3 |
| 10/24-28/18 | 65 | 15 | 15 | 3 |
| 9/12-16/18 | 68 | 15 | 14 | 3 |
| 2/25-3/1/18 | 71 | 14 | 9 | 4 |
| 3/13-16/17 | 66 | 17 | 14 | 2 |
| 9/15-18/16 | 62 | 19 | 16 | 2 |
| 8/25-28/16 | 62 | 19 | 15 | 3 |
| 8/4-7/16 | 60 | 19 | 17 | 3 |
| 6/9-12/16 | 60 | 18 | 17 | 4 |
| 3/24-28/16 | 60 | 22 | 16 | 2 |
| 1/21-24/16 | 57 | 17 | 21 | 4 |
| 8/13-16/15 | 49 | 25 | 23 | 3 |
| 10/23-26/14 | 52 | 20 | 24 | 3 |
| 10/21-24/13 | 61 | 20 | 16 | 2 |
| 5/6-9/13 | 58 | 19 | 20 | 2 |
| 3/11-13/13 | 57 | 17 | 21 | 4 |
| 10/25-28/12 | 53 | 19 | 22 | 5 |
| 10/11-14/12 | 52 | 21 | 21 | 4 |
| 9/27-30/12 | 52 | 19 | 22 | 6 |
| 9/13-16/12 | 51 | 23 | 20 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S. | ||||
An alternative framing of the issue with no mention of working or options for staying in the U.S., asked later in the survey, is worded as:
“Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?”
With this wording, a majority, 56%, favor deportations, while 39% are opposed and 5% say they don’t know.
Those who favor an eventual-citizenship path, as well as those who favor deportation, when worker status is mentioned in the first question, hold those opinions in the second framing of the question. Those who favor allowing undocumented workers to stay but only as guest workers are substantially in favor of deportation when the worker status in not mentioned.
The relationship between the two questions is shown in Table 17. Of those saying stay and apply for citizenship, 68% oppose deportation of those in the U.S. illegally on the second question. Of those who favor guest worker status, 73% say they favor deportation on the second question. Those who favored requiring undocumented workers to leave almost all, 94%, favor deportation of immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
Table 17: Relationship between policy framings on immigration
Among registered voters
| Undocumented workers | Deport those illegally in U.S. | ||
| Favor | Oppose | Don’t know | |
| Stay and apply for citizenship | 25 | 68 | 6 |
| Stay as temporary guest workers | 73 | 26 | 0 |
| Required to leave jobs and U.S. | 94 | 4 | 2 |
| Don’t know | 73 | 8 | 19 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? 1. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship 2. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship 3. They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S. | |||
| Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries? | |||
Abortion
A majority of the public continues to oppose the Dobbs decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion recognized in Roe v. Wade, with 62% opposed and 37% in favor of the decision. Opinion has been generally stable since August 2022, as shown in Table 18.
Table 18: Favor or oppose the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favor or oppose | ||
| Favor | Oppose | DK/Ref | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 37 | 62 | 1 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 34 | 66 | 0 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 35 | 57 | 8 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 31 | 64 | 4 |
| 10/24-11/1/22 | 37 | 55 | 8 |
| 10/3-9/22 | 33 | 60 | 7 |
| 9/6-11/22 | 30 | 63 | 7 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 33 | 60 | 7 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? | |||
A majority, 54%, favor a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life and health of the mother, while 43% are opposed and 3% didn’t know. This is the first time this question has been asked.
In January, a question was asked about a state policy for a 14-week ban, which was then being discussed in the legislature. In that poll, 45% favored such a policy, while 48% were opposed and 8% said they didn’t know.
Health care
Health care did not rise to the top of the most important problems, but there has been increased political discussion of the Affordable Care Act or “Obamacare” in recent months. In April, a majority, 51%, have a favorable view of the law, with 38% unfavorable and 11% who don’t know. Views of the ACA have improved since 2017, the year efforts to replace the law failed in Congress, as shown in Table 19.
Table 19: Views of the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | View of ACA | ||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Don’t know | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 51 | 38 | 11 |
| 2/19-23/20 | 48 | 48 | 4 |
| 4/3-7/19 | 45 | 49 | 6 |
| 9/12-16/18 | 47 | 45 | 7 |
| 6/22-25/17 | 41 | 51 | 7 |
| 3/13-16/17 | 45 | 46 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010, often called the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? | |||
Biden and Trump presidential job approval
Biden’s job approval in April stands at 40%, a one-point decline in approval since January, with disapproval at 57%. Table 20 shows the recent trend in job approval.
Table 20: Biden job approval
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Job approval | |||||
| Total approve | Total disapprove | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 40 | 57 | 16 | 24 | 8 | 49 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 41 | 58 | 18 | 23 | 10 | 48 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 42 | 57 | 17 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? | ||||||
Biden approval by party identification is shown in Table 21. Republicans are nearly unanimous in their disapproval of Biden at 95%, with independents’ disapproval at 55% and approval at 34%. Democrats are quite approving of Biden at 81%, with16% disapproving.
Table 21: Biden job approval, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Job approval | ||
| Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | |
| Republican | 5 | 95 | 1 |
| Independent | 34 | 55 | 9 |
| Democrat | 81 | 16 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? | |||
The April poll also asked respondents if they approved or disapproved of the job Trump did when he was president. Forty-seven percent approved and 52% disapproved. This matches Trump’s approval in the last Marquette Law School Poll survey before the 2020 election, when 47% approved and 52% disapproved.
Table 22 shows Trump approval by party identification. Virtually all Democrats, 97%, disapprove of how Trump handled his job as president, while a large majority of Republicans, 86%, approved. Independents are closely balanced, with 49% approving and 47% disapproving.
Table 22: Trump job approval, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Job approval | ||
| Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | |
| Republican | 86 | 14 | 0 |
| Independent | 49 | 47 | 1 |
| Democrat | 3 | 97 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president? | |||
Vote choice is strongly related to approval, though Biden wins a majority of voters among those who somewhat disapprove of the job he is doing, as shown in Table 23.
Table 23: Biden vs. Trump, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
| Biden job approval | Vote choice | |
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |
| Total | 49 | 51 |
| Strongly approve | 100 | 0 |
| Somewhat approve | 96 | 3 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 56 | 43 |
| Strongly disapprove | 8 | 92 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? | ||
In contrast with Biden, those who somewhat disapprove of the job Trump did as president give a majority of their vote to Biden: 59%, compared with 40% who prefer Trump. Table 24 shows vote by approval of Trump’s job as president.
Table 24: Biden vs. Trump, by Trump job approval
Among registered voters
| Trump job approval | Vote choice | |
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |
| Total | 49 | 51 |
| Strongly approve | 1 | 99 |
| Somewhat approve | 7 | 92 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 59 | 40 |
| Strongly disapprove | 95 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president? | ||
Characteristics of Biden and Trump
Table 25 shows how well voters regard various phrases as describing Biden and Trump.
Corruption charges have been leveled against both candidates, with 61% saying “has behaved corruptly” describes Trump and 47% saying this describes Biden.
Biden is seen as having the right temperament to be president by 52%, while 41% say Trump has the right temperament.
Biden is seen as too old to be president by 80%, compared to those who see Trump as too old, 58%.
On “shares your values,” 48% say this describes Biden and 45% say it describes Trump.
On their records as president, Trump has an advantage, with 58% saying “strong record of accomplishments” describes him while 44% say this describes Biden.
Table 25: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
| Candidate | How well phrase describes | ||
| Poll dates | Very/somewhat well | Not too/not at all well | |
| Has behaved corruptly | |||
| Biden | 4/3-10/24 | 47 | 53 |
| Biden | 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 50 |
| Biden | 10/26-11/2/23 | 47 | 52 |
| Trump | 4/3-10/24 | 61 | 38 |
| Trump | 1/24-31/24 | 67 | 32 |
| Trump | 10/26-11/2/23 | 67 | 32 |
| Has the right temperament to be president | |||
| Biden | 4/3-10/24 | 52 | 48 |
| Trump | 4/3-10/24 | 41 | 59 |
| Is too old to be president | |||
| Biden | 4/3-10/24 | 80 | 18 |
| Biden | 1/24-31/24 | 82 | 17 |
| Biden | 10/26-11/2/23 | 77 | 22 |
| Trump | 4/3-10/24 | 58 | 41 |
| Trump | 1/24-31/24 | 56 | 44 |
| Trump | 10/26-11/2/23 | 54 | 45 |
| Shares your values | |||
| Biden | 4/3-10/24 | 48 | 52 |
| Biden | 1/24-31/24 | 46 | 53 |
| Biden | 10/26-11/2/23 | 46 | 54 |
| Trump | 4/3-10/24 | 45 | 55 |
| Trump | 1/24-31/24 | 42 | 58 |
| Trump | 10/26-11/2/23 | 42 | 58 |
| Strong record of accomplishments as president | |||
| Biden | 4/3-10/24 | 44 | 56 |
| Biden | 1/24-31/24 | 43 | 57 |
| Biden | 10/26-11/2/23 | 41 | 58 |
| Trump | 4/3-10/24 | 58 | 42 |
| Trump | 1/24-31/24 | 52 | 48 |
| Trump | 10/26-11/2/23 | 50 | 50 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)? | |||
Direction of the state, economic conditions, and personal financial situation
A majority of registered voters say the state of Wisconsin is on the wrong track, 59%, while 41% say it is headed in the right direction. In January, 57% said the state was on the wrong track, and 42% said it was headed in the right direction. The recent trend for this opinion is shown in Table 26.
Table 26: Right direction or wrong track
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Direction of state | ||
| Right direction | Wrong track | Don’t know | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 41 | 59 | 0 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 42 | 57 | 0 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 36 | 62 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? | |||
A majority of Democrats see the state headed in the right direction, while a majority of Republicans and independents say the state is on the wrong track, as shown in Table 27.
Table 27: Right direction or wrong track, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Direction of the state | |
| Right direction | Wrong track | |
| Total | 41 | 59 |
| Republican | 21 | 79 |
| Independent | 36 | 62 |
| Democrat | 65 | 34 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||
| Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? | ||
The national economy is seen as excellent by only 5%, as good by 28%, as not so good by 38%, and as poor by 28%. Views of the economy dipped slightly from January to April, as shown in Table 28.
Table 28: Views of the national economy
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | National economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 5 | 28 | 38 | 28 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 6 | 32 | 34 | 28 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 3 | 24 | 36 | 37 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
Views of the economy differ sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 29, with Republicans quite negative and Democrats quite positive. Independents are more negative than positive, though less negative than Republicans.
Table 29: Views of the national economy, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Description of national economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| Total | 5 | 28 | 38 | 28 |
| Republican | 0 | 9 | 46 | 44 |
| Independent | 2 | 31 | 34 | 33 |
| Democrat | 12 | 50 | 31 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
Respondents see the Wisconsin economy as better than the national economy. The comparison is shown in Table 30.
Table 30: Wisconsin economy vs. national economy
Among registered voters
| State or national | View of economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| Wisconsin economy | 6 | 38 | 42 | 14 |
| National economy | 5 | 28 | 38 | 28 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days? | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
Partisan differences are also strong in views of Wisconsin’s economy, though views of the state are more positive than of the nation across each partisan category, as shown in Table 31.
Table 31: Views of the Wisconsin economy, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Description of Wisconsin economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| Total | 6 | 38 | 42 | 14 |
| Republican | 0 | 23 | 55 | 21 |
| Independent | 6 | 34 | 42 | 17 |
| Democrat | 11 | 56 | 26 | 6 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days? | ||||
Their family financial situation is seen by respondents as a little worse in April than in January. Among registered voters, 45% say they are living comfortably. That is a four-point drop from January, with a two-point increase each for “just getting by” to 40% and “struggling” to 15%. This trend is shown in Table 32.
Table 32: Family financial situation
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Financial situation | ||
| Living comfortably | Just getting by | Struggling | |
| 4/3-10/24 | 45 | 40 | 15 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 38 | 13 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 48 | 36 | 15 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? | |||
Partisan differences in personal financial situation are shown in Table 33. Republicans are less likely to say they are living comfortably than either independents or Democrats.
Table 33: Family financial situation, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Family financial situation | ||
| Living comfortably | Just getting by | Struggling | |
| Total | 45 | 40 | 15 |
| Republican | 38 | 47 | 14 |
| Independent | 44 | 33 | 23 |
| Democrat | 54 | 34 | 13 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | |||
| Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? | |||
Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court
Table 34 shows the job approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers’ approval is 52% and disapproval is 44%. In January, Evers’s approval was 51% and disapproval was 44%.
Table 34: Approval of governor, the legislature, and state Supreme Court
Among registered voters
| Approval | ||||
| Approval of | Poll dates | Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know |
| Tony Evers | 4/3-10/24 | 52 | 44 | 3 |
| Tony Evers | 1/24-31/24 | 51 | 44 | 5 |
| Tony Evers | 10/26-11/2/23 | 53 | 46 | 2 |
| The Wisconsin legislature | 4/3-10/24 | 34 | 56 | 9 |
| The Wisconsin legislature | 1/24-31/24 | 34 | 58 | 8 |
| The Wisconsin legislature | 10/26-11/2/23 | 40 | 57 | 3 |
| The Wisconsin state Supreme Court | 4/3-10/24 | 46 | 39 | 15 |
| The Wisconsin state Supreme Court | 1/24-31/24 | 45 | 43 | 13 |
| The Wisconsin state Supreme Court | 10/26-11/2/23 | 51 | 43 | 5 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? | ||||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job? | ||||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job? | ||||
Favorability of state elected officials
Favorability ratings of Sen. Ron Johnson, Evers, and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 35. Vos is far less known statewide than are the others.
Table 35: Favorability of state political figures
Among registered voters
| Favorability to | Favorability | |||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | |
| Ron Johnson | 39 | 51 | 11 | NA |
| Tony Evers | 50 | 45 | 5 | 0 |
| Robin Vos | 17 | 37 | 44 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? | ||||
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted April 3-10, 2024, interviewing 814 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. The sample contains 736 likely voters, those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 588 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 226 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 653 respondents and with 161 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.
The partisan makeup of the sample is 34% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 34% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.
The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.