Confidence in juries remains high compared to other institutions; public remains opposed to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, supportive of gun rights outside home
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 40% of adults approve of the job that the Supreme Court of the United States is doing, while 60% disapprove. In November, 41% approved and 59% disapproved. Approval of the Court has remained below 50% in surveys since March 2022, when it stood at 54%. While approval is up from the low point of 38% in July 2022, it has declined from its recent high of 45% in July 2023.
The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: U.S. Supreme Court approval
Among adults
Poll dates
Approval
Approve
Disapprove
2/5-15/24
40
60
11/2-7/23
41
59
9/18-25/23
43
57
7/7-12/23
45
55
5/8-18/23
41
59
3/13-22/23
44
56
1/9-20/23
47
53
11/15-22/22
44
56
9/7-14/22
40
60
7/5-12/22
38
61
5/9-19/22
44
55
3/14-24/22
54
45
1/10-21/22
52
46
11/1-10/21
54
46
9/7-16/21
49
50
7/16-26/21
60
39
9/8-15/20
66
33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
Views of the Court have come to be substantially structured by partisanship, more so in recent years. In 2020, the first year the Marquette Law School Poll asked this question about the Court, national majorities of Republicans, independents, and Democrats approved of the job the Court was doing, as shown in Table 2, with Republican approval being especially high. In the current survey, there are substantially larger partisan differences, with a majority of Republicans approving of the Court’s job performance, while majorities of independents and Democrats disapprove, as shown in Table 3. (Throughout this report, party identification includes independents who say that they are closer to a party, while independents are those who say they are not closer to either party.)
Table 2: U.S. Supreme Court approval, by party identification, 2020
Among adults
Party ID
Approval
Approve
Disapprove
Total
66
33
Republican
78
20
Independent
50
46
Democrat
60
39
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 8-15, 2020
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Table 3: U.S. Supreme Court approval, by party identification, 2024
Among adults
Party ID
Approval
Approve
Disapprove
Total
40
60
Republican
57
43
Independent
28
72
Democrat
27
73
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Political ideological identification also shapes views of the Court, as shown in Table 4. Self-described conservatives are strongly approving of the Court, while self-described liberals are sharply disapproving. A majority of moderates also disapprove.
Table 4: U.S. Supreme Court approval, by self-described ideology, 2024
Among adults
Ideology
Approval
Approve
Disapprove
Total
40
60
Very conservative
62
38
Somewhat conservative
54
46
Moderate
37
63
Somewhat liberal
25
75
Very liberal
17
83
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?
Substantial percentages of respondents say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion about a case concerning Colorado’s decision to remove former President Donald Trump from the ballot under the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment, or about a case concerning the possession of firearms by people under domestic violence restraining orders. On the former, 31% say they haven’t heard anything or haven’t heard enough to have an opinion, while on the gun possession case 42% haven’t heard anything or haven’t heard enough.
Of those with an opinion, 50% favor the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning the Colorado decision to disqualify Trump from the ballot, while 50% oppose overturning that decision.
Of those with an opinion, 91% say the Court should uphold a federal law that prohibits people under domestic violence restraining orders from possessing firearms, while 9% think that the Court should hold it unconstitutional.
Attention among the public to news about the Supreme Court has increased since November but remains rather limited. Table 5 shows the trend in attention to news about the Court from September 2023 to February 2024. In both September and November, few respondents had heard a lot about the Court in the previous month, but in February attention rose as the Court heard arguments in some major cases. Almost a quarter have heard a lot about the Court in the last month, while about one in five say they’ve heard no news about the Court in that time. A majority say they have heard just a little.
Table 5: Attention to news about the Court
Among adults
Poll dates
How much heard or read
A lot
A little
Nothing at all
2/5-15/24
24
56
20
11/2-7/23
15
60
25
9/18-25/23
17
61
22
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?
Opinions about recent decisions concerning abortion, gun possession outside the home, and the use of race in college admissions have remained stable in recent months.
In June 2022, the Supreme Court issued the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that made abortion legal in all 50 states. The Court also ruled then in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen that the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. A year later, in June 2023, the Court ruled in Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College that use of race in university admissions violates the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.
Table 6 shows the trend in opinion about the Dobbs decision. A substantial majority, 67%, oppose the decision, while 33% favor it. In polling from November 2022 to February 2024, these percentages have fluctuated by only a few percentage points, with no consistent trend.
Table 6: Favor or oppose Dobbs decision striking down Roe v. Wade
Among adults
Poll dates
Favor or oppose *Dobbs*
Favor
Oppose
2/5-15/24
33
67
11/2-7/23
35
65
9/18-25/23
36
64
7/7-12/23
38
62
5/8-18/23
35
65
3/13-22/23
33
67
1/9-20/23
35
64
11/15-22/22
33
66
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Opinion of the Bruen decision is shown in Table 7. A solid majority, 64%, favor Bruen’s affirmation of a right to possess a firearm outside the home, while 36% are opposed to the decision. There has been little change in these views in polls from September 2023 to the present.
Table 7: Favor or oppose Bruen decision on gun rights
Among adults
Poll dates
Favor or oppose *Bruen*
Favor
Oppose
2/5-15/24
64
36
11/2-7/23
67
33
9/18-25/23
64
36
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Regarding the 2023 Students for Fair Admissions case, in the current poll, 75% favor the decision banning the use of race in admissions, while 25% oppose that ruling. Table 8 shows that the majority opinion among the public has remained stable since September 2023.
Table 8: Favor or oppose Students for Fair Admissions decision on race in college admissions
Among adults
Poll dates
Favor or oppose decision
Favor
Oppose
2/5-15/24
75
25
11/2-7/23
79
21
9/18-25/23
77
23
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 9. Juries in criminal cases enjoy the highest confidence of the five institutions, with the lowest percentage saying they have little or no confidence in juries. The U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Supreme Court, and the presidency each have the same percentage, 25%, saying they have a great deal or a lot of confidence, with small differences in those saying little or no confidence. Congress has the lowest confidence rating, with 10% of the public expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence and 57% saying they have little or no confidence in Congress. That is a decline: In July 2023, 14% said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in Congress, while 43% had little or no confidence.
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?
Confidence in the Court as an institution has declined from its recent high in July 2023, when 31% expressed a great deal or a lot of confidence, 32% some confidence, and 37% little or no confidence in the Court. The full trend is shown in Table 10.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?
Since 2019, there has been an increase in the percentage of the public who think the justices’ decisions are motivated by politics, rising from 35% in 2019 to 54% in the current poll, with a sharp increase beginning in January 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 11.
Table 11: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics?
Among adults
Poll dates
Perceived motivation
Mainly politics
Mainly the law
2/5-15/24
54
46
11/2-7/23
55
45
9/18-25/23
52
48
7/7-12/23
58
42
1/9-20/23
49
51
7/5-12/22
52
48
1/10-21/22
47
53
11/1-10/21
30
70
9/7-16/21
39
61
7/16-26/21
29
71
9/8-15/20
37
62
9/3-13/19
35
64
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?
There has been a small fluctuation in the ratings of the honesty and ethical standards of the justices of the Supreme Court from May 2023 to the present. In the current poll, 27% rate the standards of the justices as very high or high, 36% rate them as low or very low, and 37% call them average. In July 2023, 32% rated the justices’ ethical standards very high or high, while 35% rated them low or very low, while in May 2023 the numbers were very close to the current ones. The full trend is shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Honesty and ethical standards of justices
Among adults
Poll dates
Honesty & ethical standards
Very high/high
Average
Low/Very low
2/5-15/24
27
37
36
11/2-7/23
28
39
34
9/18-25/23
30
41
29
7/7-12/23
32
33
35
5/8-18/23
26
39
35
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?
Despite their position on the high court, Supreme Court justices are not well known to the public. While perceptions of the individual justices vary, more than half of the public lacks an opinion of each of the justices other than Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The favorability ratings of the justices are shown in Table 13.
Table 13: Favorability ratings of U.S. Supreme Court justices
Among adults
Favorability
Candidate
Net favorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
Not heard/not enough
Alito
0
16
16
67
Barrett
-5
19
24
57
Gorsuch
1
15
14
70
Jackson
7
23
16
61
Kagan
6
15
9
76
Kavanaugh
-7
23
30
47
Roberts
11
25
14
60
Sotomayor
15
31
16
53
Thomas
-7
26
33
41
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Some justices of the Supreme Court are better known than others. For each of these names, have you never heard of them, heard of them but don’t know enough to have an opinion of them, have a favorable opinion or have an unfavorable opinion?
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 1,003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.
Wording of questions about past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.
The wording of questions about previous decisions include:
Opinion of Dobbs decision, striking down Roe v. Wade
In 2022 the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Opinion of decision concerning possession of guns outside the home
In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Opinion of decision banning use of race in college admissions
In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Haley continues to hold large lead over Biden in hypothetical matchup but wins just 22% in Republican primary polling
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds the presumptive presidential race tied, with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump each supported by 49% of registered voters. Among the somewhat smaller group who are considered likely voters, Trump is at 50% and Biden at 49%.
In November, Biden received 50% and Trump 48% among both registered and likely voters.
These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates. Among registered voters, 12% were initially undecided, as were 10% among likely voters.
When third-party candidates are included, Trump receives 40% and Biden 37% among registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 16%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein is the choice of 4%, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2%.
Among likely voters in the five-way race, Trump is the choice of 41%, Biden 39%, Kennedy 13%, Stein 4%, and West 2%.
The survey was conducted Jan. 24-31, 2024, interviewing 930 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. The sample includes 408 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.
In a head-to-head match between Biden and Republican candidate Nikki Haley, Haley continues to hold sizable advantage as the choice of 57% registered voters, compared to 41% who chose Biden. Among likely voters, Haley receives 57% and Biden 42%. In November, 53% of registered voters favored Haley compared to 44% who chose Biden.
Table 1 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Biden and Trump receive nearly equal support from their respective parties, while independents lean to Biden. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Haley runs especially well against Biden, as shown in Table 2, winning a larger share of Republicans than Trump and taking a majority of the vote from independents. She also wins 15% from Democratic voters, larger than does Trump.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
In the five-way ballot test, Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans, 16%, than from Democrats, 12%, and an especially large share from independents, 28%. Stein takes 8% of the vote from Democrats but only 1% from Republicans, while West does better among independents than among partisans. These results are shown in Table 3.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or Green Party’s Jill Stein?
As the primaries have begun, most respondents expect Trump and Biden to be the nominees of their respective parties, but some don’t think so, especially those of the opposite party. Table 4 shows expectation that Biden will be the Democratic nominee. Among all respondents, 40% say Biden will definitely be the nominee and 40% say he probably will be. However, 9% say he probably won’t be and 5% say he definitely won’t be the Democratic nominee. Republicans are especially doubtful, with more than 1 in 5 saying he probably or definitely won’t be the nominee and another 9% saying they don’t know.
Table 4: Will Biden be the nominee, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Biden the nominee
Definitely will be the nominee
Probably will be the nominee
Probably will not be the nominee
Definitely will not be the nominee
Don’t know
Total
40
40
9
5
6
Republican
25
45
11
10
9
Independent
37
42
6
7
7
Democrat
58
34
7
0
2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How likely is it that Joe Biden will be the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the November election?
Trump is seen as definitely the Republican nominee by 34% and probably the nominee by 51%, while 6% say he probably won’t be and 2% think he definitely won’t be the nominee. Democrats are more skeptical Trump will win the nomination and Republicans less doubtful, as shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Will Trump be the nominee, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Trump the nominee
Definitely will be the nominee
Probably will be the nominee
Probably will not be the nominee
Definitely will not be the nominee
Don’t know
Total
34
51
6
2
5
Republican
50
44
2
1
4
Independent
29
57
4
2
7
Democrat
20
58
12
4
6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How likely is it that Donald Trump will be the presidential nominee of the Republican Party in the November election?
Respondents were also asked, regardless of whom they plan to support, who they think would win in the presidential election in November in a hypothetical Biden-Trump rematch from 2020. Trump is seen as more likely to win, with 23% saying he would definitely win and 25% saying he probably would win. Biden is seen as definitely winning by 14% and probably winning by 27%, while 12% say they don’t know who will win.
Majorities of each party think their party’s candidate is likely to win. Independents slightly lean to think of Trump winning, although over a quarter say they don’t know, as shown in Table 6.
Table 6: Who is likely to win, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Who is likely to win
Definitely Biden
Probably Biden
Probably Trump
Definitely Trump
Don’t know
Total
14
27
25
23
12
Republican
2
16
30
45
7
Independent
17
18
23
16
26
Democrat
26
41
20
2
12
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election if Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump is the Republican candidate?
In the Republican primary, Trump is supported by 64% and Haley is the choice of 22%, with 14% saying they are undecided. In the Marquette Law School Poll in November, Trump was the choice of 38% and Haley the choice of 11%, with 24% undecided and other candidates taking the remainder.
The favorability ratings for Trump, Haley, and Florida Gov, Ron DeSantis, who dropped out +of the race very shortly before the survey began, are shown in Table 7, among Republican registered voters. Trump’s net favorable rating has increased, while Haley’s has decreased since November. DeSantis’ net favorable rating also went down from the fall. Trump is now seen favorably by 77% of Republicans, up from 69% in November. Haley’s favorable rating has not changed much, but her unfavorable rating rose to 31%, up from 18%, while those saying they haven’t heard enough about her declined to 17% from 27% in November.
Table 7: Favorability to Trump, Haley and DeSantis
Among Republican registered voters
Candidate
Favorability
Poll dates
Net favorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
Haven’t heard enough
Don’t know
Donald Trump
1/24-31/24
56
77
21
2
0
Donald Trump
10/26-11/2/23
41
69
28
3
0
Nikki Haley
1/24-31/24
21
52
31
17
0
Nikki Haley
10/26-11/2/23
36
54
18
27
2
Ron DeSantis
1/24-31/24
47
67
20
13
0
Ron DeSantis
10/26-11/2/23
58
73
15
11
1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?
Haley’s support in the primary largely comes from the 21% of Republicans with an unfavorable view of Trump, as shown in Table 8. Haley does nearly as well with those unfavorable to Trump as Trump does among those favorable to him. However, there are too few Republicans unfavorable to Trump to provide a large enough GOP base for Haley to match Trump in the primary polling.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the Republican primary were today, whom would you vote for or haven’t you decided?
Question: Next, we’d like to get your opinion of some people you may or may not be familiar with. For each name, please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them or if you haven’t heard enough about them yet to have an opinion. Donald Trump
Registered voters are less enthusiastic about voting than they were in January 2020, as shown in Table 9. In the current survey, 49% say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November, compared to 70% at the comparable time four years ago.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Those who are most enthusiastic substantially prefer Trump to Biden, while those less enthusiastic prefer Biden to Trump, as shown in Table 10.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Enthusiasm is related to likelihood of voting, but these are measured separately. Those who are classified as likely voters slightly prefer Trump, while those who are less likely to vote prefer Biden, as shown in Table 11. How, or if, enthusiasm and likelihood of voting (the latter ultimately becoming turnout) change over the campaign may shift the candidates’ advantages.
Table 11: Vote for Biden or Trump, by likelihood of voting
Among registered voters
Likelihood of voting
Vote choice 2024
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Haven’t decided
Likely voter
50
49
1
Less likely to vote
46
51
3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Table 12 shows the trend in favorability to presidential candidates among all registered voters. All the candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably with the exception of Kennedy, who has a net favorability of +2 percentage points. Haley and the independent or third-party candidates are much less well known than Biden or Trump.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?
Both Biden and Trump are seen more unfavorably than favorably. A significant share of voters, 18%, see both of them unfavorably. Their combined favorability trend is shown in Table 13.
Table 13: Combined favorability to Biden and Trump
Among registered voters
Wave
Combined Favorability
Biden fav, Trump fav
Biden fav, Trump unfav
Biden unfav, Trump fav
Biden unfav, Trump unfav
DK Biden or Trump
1/24-31/24
2
40
38
18
2
10/26-11/2/23
1
41
36
18
4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?
Biden’s job approval in January stands at 41%, with disapproval at 58%, a one-point decline in approval since November. Table 14 shows the trend in job approval.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Vote choice generally is strongly related to approval. But Biden wins a majority of voters among those who somewhat disapprove of the job he is doing, as shown in Table 15.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Perceptions of Biden and Trump
Table 16 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and, to a smaller degree, the Israel-Hamas war. The two are virtually tied on foreign relations. Biden is seen as slightly better on health care and on Medicare and Social Security, with a larger advantage on abortion policy.
On each different issue, a substantial percentage, 15%-24%, say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing an opportunity for the candidates.
Table 16: Which candidate would do a better job on issues
Among registered voters
Issue
Who better
Biden
Trump
Both about the same
Neither good
Immigration and border security
28
54
6
11
The Economy
31
52
7
10
Israel-Hamas war
31
44
8
16
Foreign relations
42
43
5
10
Health care
40
36
12
12
Medicare and Social Security
42
37
11
10
Abortion policy
44
36
7
11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?
Table 17 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden is seen as too old to be president by 61%, compared to 29% who see Trump as too old.
On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than say that of Biden, but more are emphatic that this does not describe Trump for them than say the same of Biden.
Corruption allegations have been leveled against both candidates. In this poll, 49% say “has behaved corruptly” describes Trump very well, with 30% saying this describes Biden very well.
On their records as president, Trump has an advantage, with 35% saying “strong record of accomplishments” describes him very well, while 19% say this describes Biden very well.
Table 17: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
Issue
How well phrase describes
Very well
Somewhat well
Not too well
Not at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden
61
22
8
9
Trump
29
27
21
23
Shares your values
Biden
18
28
13
40
Trump
22
20
11
47
Has behaved corruptly
Biden
30
19
15
35
Trump
49
18
12
20
Strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden
19
24
19
37
Trump
35
17
18
30
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?
With respect to Trump’s indictment for his actions following the 2020 election, 53% believe Trump did something illegal, 22% say he did something wrong but not illegal, 22% say he did nothing wrong, and 3% say they don’t know.
Asked if Joe Biden did something illegal related to his son’s business dealings, 42% believe he did something illegal, 17% say he did something wrong but not illegal, 29% say he did nothing wrong, and 13% say they don’t know.
A majority (57%) of registered voters say that Wisconsin generally is on the wrong track, while 42% say it is headed in the right direction. In November, 62% said the state was on the wrong track and 36% said it was headed in the right direction. The trend for this opinion is shown in Table 18.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?
A majority of Democrats see the state headed in the right direction, while a majority of Republicans and independents say the state is on the wrong track, as shown in Table 19.
Table 19: Right direction or wrong track, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Direction of the state
Right direction
Wrong track
Total
42
57
Republican
23
77
Independent
44
56
Democrat
62
36
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?
The national economy is seen as excellent by only 6%, as good by 32%, as not so good by 34%, and as poor by 28%. Views of the economy improved from November to January, as shown in Table 20.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
These views of the economy differ sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 21, with Republicans quite negative and Democrats quite positive. Independents are more negative than positive, though less negative than Republicans.
Table 21: Views of the national economy, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Description of national economy
Excellent
Good
Not so good
Poor
Total
6
32
34
28
Republican
2
14
40
44
Independent
7
31
37
25
Democrat
11
51
26
11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Respondents see the Wisconsin economy as better than the national economy. The comparison is shown in Table 22.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days?
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Partisan differences are also strong in views of Wisconsin’s economy, although views of the state are more positive than for the nation across each partisan category, as shown in Table 23.
Table 23: Views of the Wisconsin economy, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Description of Wisconsin economy
Excellent
Good
Not so good
Poor
Total
6
42
38
14
Republican
3
28
48
21
Independent
3
41
43
13
Democrat
9
58
26
7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days?
Respondents’ family financial situation is little changed since November. Among registered voters, 49% say they are living comfortably, 38% say they are just getting by, and 13% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 24.
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?
Partisan differences in personal financial situation are shown in Table 25. Republicans are less likely to say they are living comfortably than either independents or Democrats.
Table 25: Family financial situation, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Family financial situation
Living comfortably
Just getting by
Struggling
Total
49
38
13
Republican
42
42
17
Independent
49
38
13
Democrat
56
33
10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?
Table 26 shows the job approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers’ approval is 51% and disapproval is 44%. In November, Evers’ approval was 53% and disapproval was 46%.
Table 26: Approval of governor, the legislature, and state Supreme Court
Among registered voters
Approval of
Approval
Poll dates
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know
Tony Evers
1/24-31/24
51
44
5
Tony Evers
10/26-11/2/23
53
46
2
The Wisconsin legislature
1/24-31/24
34
58
8
The Wisconsin legislature
10/26-11/2/23
40
57
3
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court
1/24-31/24
45
43
13
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court
10/26-11/2/23
51
43
5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?
Favorability ratings of U.S. Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson, Evers, and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 27. Vos is far less known statewide than are the others. Also included are three potential Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, though none had declared at the time of the survey. These potential candidates—Eric Hovde, Scott Mayer, and David Clarke—are little known at this point.
In December the state Supreme Court ruled the existing legislative districts violated the state Constitution and required new maps to be drawn. This survey was conducted after new maps had been submitted, but before any ruling on which map will be adopted. The decision to draw new districts is favored by 42% of registered voters and opposed by 34%, while 23% say they don’t know.
Opinions of this decision are divided by party, as shown in Table 28. Yet a substantial portion of each party say they don’t have an opinion on this topic.
Table 28: Favor or oppose decision to redraw legislative districts
Among registered voters
Party ID
Favor or oppose decision
Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
Total
29
13
16
18
23
Republican
4
15
26
29
25
Independent
26
12
15
22
25
Democrat
57
11
7
4
20
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: In December the state Supreme Court ordered the redrawing of district maps for the state Assembly and Senate, replacing existing districts with new ones for the 2024 elections. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
In January, the legislature discussed legislation that would legalize the use of marijuana for medical purposes. Eighty-six percent say they support legalization for medical purposes, with 10% opposed and 4% saying they don’t know. When last asked about this in April 2019, 83% favored and 12% opposed legalizing medical marijuana.
A smaller majority, 63%, favor legalization of marijuana for any purpose, while 29% are opposed. This question was last asked in October 2022, with 64% in favor and 30% opposed.
Table 29 shows opinion of legalizing medical marijuana by party identification. Substantial majorities, including more than three-quarters of Republicans, favor legalization.
Table 29: Legalize medical marijuana, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Opinion
Yes, legal
No, illegal
Total
86
10
Republican
78
17
Independent
84
11
Democrat
95
2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think the use of marijuana for medical purposes with a doctor’s prescription should be made legal, or not?
Opinion is somewhat more divided by party on legalization of marijuana beyond medicinal uses. Republicans are split evenly on this issue, with majorities of independents and Democrats in favor, as shown in Table 30.
Table 30: Legalize marijuana, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Opinion
Yes, legal
No, illegal
Total
63
29
Republican
46
46
Independent
62
27
Democrat
83
11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?
The legislature is considering a measure that could place a referendum on the ballot that would ban abortion after 14 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for the life and health of the mother and in cases of rape or incest. Opinion is closely divided on this issue, with 45% in favor, 48% opposed, and 8% saying they don’t know.
The partisan divide on this issue is shown in Table 31.
Table 31: Ban abortion after 14 weeks, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Preference
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
Total
45
48
8
Republican
72
19
8
Independent
43
50
8
Democrat
15
77
7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Would you favor or oppose a proposal to ban abortions in Wisconsin after 14 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for the life and health of the mother and for cases of rape or incest?
Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 presidential election (the casting and counting of votes) remains a sharp dividing line in Wisconsin. Overall, 66% are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the election in Wisconsin, with 31% not too or not at all confident. However, among Republicans, these percentages are almost reversed, with 40% very or somewhat confident and 59% not too or not at all confident.
These percentages have hardly changed since August 2021 when the question was first asked. At that time, 67% were very or somewhat confident and 31% not too or not at all confident.
Confidence in the 2020 election by party identification is shown in Table 32. While a majority of Republicans lack confidence, majorities of independents and Democrats are very or somewhat confident in the election.
Table 32: Confidence in the 2020 election, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Confidence in election
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don’t know
Total
49
17
15
16
2
Republican
19
21
25
34
1
Independent
56
18
13
9
4
Democrat
79
13
4
1
3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?
Aid to Ukraine and to Israel, and U.S. role in the world
Views of the role the United States should play in the world have been shifting in recent years. In Wisconsin, 57% think it is better for the country if the U.S. plays an active role in world affairs, while 30% say it would be better to stay out of world affairs. Table 33 shows how these views differ by party identification.
Table 33: Better for U.S. to play active role in world or to stay out of world affairs
Among registered voters
Party ID
Role in world
Take an active part in world affairs
Stay out of world affairs
Don’t know
Total
57
30
13
Republican
52
36
11
Independent
51
36
14
Democrat
64
21
15
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?
Thirty-one percent say the U.S. is providing too much support to Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza, while 17% say the U.S. is not giving enough support for Israel and 36% say the U.S. is giving about the right amount of support to Israel. Table 34 shows how views of aid to Israel vary by party. Democrats are more likely to say the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel than are Republicans or independents.
Table 34: Amount of U.S. support to Israel, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Support to Israel
Too much support
Not enough support
About the right amount of support
Don’t know
Total
31
17
36
16
Republican
26
26
36
12
Independent
27
18
39
15
Democrat
37
7
36
20
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Israel, not enough support to Israel, or about the right amount of support to Israel?
Thirty-three percent say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine, 25% say the country is not giving enough support, and 30% say the amount of support to Ukraine is about right. Party differences on aid to Ukraine are the reverse of those for aid to Israel, with Republicans most likely to say too much support is being given to Ukraine, while Democrats are least likely to say this, as shown in Table 35.
Table 35: Amount of U.S. support to Ukraine, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Support to Ukraine
Too much support
Not enough support
About the right amount of support
Don’t know
Total
33
25
30
11
Republican
54
13
22
10
Independent
35
30
26
8
Democrat
10
37
40
12
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Jan. 24-31, 2024, interviewing 930 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. The sample includes 408 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.
The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 727 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 203 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 814 respondents and with 116 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.
The partisan makeup of the sample is 32% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 37% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican, 28% Democratic, and 41% independent.
The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.
