Marquette Law School Supreme Court Poll May 9-19, 2022

(Percentages are rounded to whole numbers for reporting of results. Frequencies have been rounded to whole numbers but percentages are calculated based on non-integer weighted sample sizes.)

Results for survey items among all respondents are presented here (unless otherwise indicated). Please note that some questions are only asked of particular groups of respondents. In these instances, the row “NA’s” includes the number and percent of total respondents omitted from the question. These omitted cases are ignored when calculating the “Valid” and “Cumulative” percent columns.

A1: interest in politics

Some people seem to follow what's going on in politics most of the time, whether there's an election going on or not. Others aren't that interested. How often do you follow what's going on in politics…?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Most of the time 385 38 38 38
Some of the time 407 41 41 79
Only now and then 142 14 14 93
Hardly at all 70 7 7 100

A2: enthusiasm about voting

How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections this November for congressional and state offices?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Very enthusiastic 371 37 37 37
Somewhat enthusiastic 311 31 31 68
Not too enthusiastic 219 22 22 90
Not at all enthusiastic 102 10 10 100
Skipped/Ref 2 0 0 100

B1: Biden approval

Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly approve 123 12 12 12
Somewhat approve 299 30 30 42
Somewhat disapprove 202 20 20 62
Strongly disapprove 370 37 37 99
Skipped/Ref 10 1 1 100

B1: Biden approval, 2-cat

Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Approve 422 42 42 42
Disapprove 572 57 57 99
Skipped/Ref 10 1 1 100

B2: Supreme Court approval

Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Supreme Court is handling its job?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly approve 78 8 8 8
Somewhat approve 365 36 36 44
Somewhat disapprove 316 31 31 76
Strongly disapprove 233 23 23 99
Skipped/Ref 12 1 1 100

B2: Supreme Court approval, 2-cat

Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Supreme Court is handling its job?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Approve 443 44 44 44
Disapprove 550 55 55 99
Skipped/Ref 12 1 1 100

C1: Justice nomination majority

What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current US Supreme Court Justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Definitely a majority appointed by Democratic presidents 52 5 5 5
Probably a majority appointed by Democratic presidents 255 25 25 31
Probably a majority appointed by Republican presidents 387 39 39 69
Definitely a majority appointed by Republican presidents 307 31 31 100
Skipped/Ref 3 0 0 100

C2: Heard about cases before Court

How much have you heard or read about recent cases being considered by the US Supreme Court?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
A lot 339 34 34 34
A little 560 56 56 89
Nothing at all 105 11 11 100

D1: Fav/Unfav Biden

[Joe Biden] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favorable opinion 399 40 40 40
Unfavorable opinion 556 55 55 95
Haven't heard enough 43 4 4 99
Skipped/Ref 6 1 1 100

D2: Fav/Unfav Trump

[Donald Trump] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favorable opinion 352 35 35 35
Unfavorable opinion 613 61 61 96
Haven't heard enough 33 3 3 99
Skipped/Ref 5 1 1 100

D3: Fav/Unfav Pence

[Mike Pence] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favorable opinion 247 25 25 25
Unfavorable opinion 541 54 54 79
Haven't heard enough 211 21 21 100
Skipped/Ref 5 0 0 100

D4: Fav/Unfav DeSantis

[Ron DeSantis] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favorable opinion 243 24 24 24
Unfavorable opinion 371 37 37 61
Haven't heard enough 385 38 38 100
Web blank 5 0 0 100

D5: Fav/Unfav Brown Jackson

[Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favorable opinion 389 39 39 39
Unfavorable opinion 227 23 23 61
Haven't heard enough 381 38 38 99
Skipped/Ref 7 1 1 100

D6: SCOTUS ideology

[The US Supreme Court] In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Very conservative 233 23 23 23
Somewhat conservative 328 33 33 56
Moderate 342 34 34 90
Somewhat liberal 76 8 8 97
Very liberal 17 2 2 99
Skipped/Ref 9 1 1 100

D7: Biden ideology

[Joe Biden] In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Very conservative 48 5 5 5
Somewhat conservative 89 9 9 14
Moderate 290 29 29 43
Somewhat liberal 259 26 26 68
Very liberal 309 31 31 99
Skipped/Ref 10 1 1 100

D8: Democratic party ideology

[The Democratic party] In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Very conservative 24 2 2 2
Somewhat conservative 88 9 9 11
Moderate 230 23 23 34
Somewhat liberal 268 27 27 61
Very liberal 385 38 38 99
Skipped/Ref 9 1 1 100

D9: Republican party ideology

[The Republican party] In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Very conservative 453 45 45 45
Somewhat conservative 317 32 32 77
Moderate 158 16 16 92
Somewhat liberal 49 5 5 97
Very liberal 22 2 2 99
Skipped/Ref 5 1 1 100

D10: SCOTUS ideology trend

Over the past 15 years or so would you say the Supreme Court has generally become…?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Much more conservative 233 23 23 23
Somewhat more conservative 294 29 29 52
Hasn't changed much 275 27 27 80
Somewhat more liberal 159 16 16 96
Much more liberal 41 4 4 100
Skipped/Ref 2 0 0 100

H1: Overturn Roe

[Overturn Roe versus Wade, thus strike down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.] Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Heard nothing at all 70 7 7 7
Heard of but not enough for an opinion 152 15 15 22
Favor 243 24 24 46
Oppose 539 54 54 100

H1: (those with opinions only)

[THOSE WITH OPINIONS ONLY] [Overturn Roe versus Wade, thus strike down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.] Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favor 243 24 31 31
Oppose 539 54 69 100
(Missing) 222 22 NA NA

H2: Expand 2nd Amendment

[Rule that the 2nd Amendment right to “keep and bear arms” protects the right to carry a gun outside the home.] Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Heard nothing at all 147 15 15 15
Heard of but not enough for an opinion 228 23 23 37
Favor 408 41 41 78
Oppose 210 21 21 99
Skipped/Ref 11 1 1 100

H2: (those with opinions only)

[THOSE WITH OPINIONS ONLY] [Rule that the 2nd Amendment right to “keep and bear arms” protects the right to carry a gun outside the home.] Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favor 408 41 66 66
Oppose 210 21 34 100
(Missing) 386 38 NA NA

H3: Uphold 15-week abortion ban

[Rule to uphold a state law that (except in cases of medical emergencies or fetal abnormalities) bans abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy.] Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Heard nothing at all 83 8 8 8
Heard of but not enough for an opinion 199 20 20 28
Favor 368 37 37 65
Oppose 348 35 35 99
Skipped/Ref 7 1 1 100

H3: (those with opinions only)

[THOSE WITH OPINIONS ONLY] [Rule to uphold a state law that (except in cases of medical emergencies or fetal abnormalities) bans abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy.] Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favor 368 37 51 51
Oppose 348 35 49 100
(Missing) 289 29 NA NA

J1: Favor/Opppose same-sex marriage right

In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 443 44 44 44
Somewhat favor 249 25 25 69
Somewhat oppose 147 15 15 84
Strongly oppose 163 16 16 100
Skipped/Ref 3 0 0 100

J2: Favor/Oppose LGBT discrimination ban

In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 584 58 58 58
Somewhat favor 246 25 25 83
Somewhat oppose 100 10 10 93
Strongly oppose 64 6 6 99
Skipped/Ref 10 1 1 100

J3: Favor/Oppose licensed concealed carry

Do you favor or oppose laws that allow most people to obtain a license to carry concealed handguns?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 315 31 31 31
Somewhat favor 305 30 30 62
Somewhat oppose 208 21 21 82
Strongly oppose 172 17 17 100
Skipped/Ref 4 0 0 100

J4: Favor/Oppose unlicensed concealed carry

Do you favor or oppose laws that allow most people to carry concealed handgunswithout needing to obtain a license?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 94 9 9 9
Somewhat favor 97 10 10 19
Somewhat oppose 191 19 19 38
Strongly oppose 617 61 61 99
Skipped/Ref 5 1 1 100

J5: Abortion legality

Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Legal in all cases 294 29 29 29
Legal in most cases 380 38 38 67
Illegal in most cases 243 24 24 91
Illegal in all cases 81 8 8 99
Skipped/Ref 6 1 1 100

J6: Heard off leaked Roe reversal

How much have you heard or read about the leak of a draft US Supreme Court opinion concerning abortion that was published by news organizations on May 2?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
A lot 402 40 40 40
A little 364 36 36 76
Nothing at all 237 24 24 100
Skipped/Ref 1 0 0 100

J7: Personal importance of abortion issue

How important is the abortion issue to you--would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
One of the most important issues 401 40 40 40
Somewhat important 395 39 39 79
Not very important 148 15 15 94
Not important at all 56 6 6 100
Skipped/Ref 5 0 0 100

J8: Abortion position election implications

Thinking about this year's (2022) elections, if one candidate favors keeping abortion legal and widely available and the other candidate favors strictly limiting abortion except to protect the mother’s life, which candidate would you support?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal 547 54 54 54
The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion 313 31 31 86
The abortion issue would not matter to me 140 14 14 100
Skipped/Ref 4 0 0 100

J9: Total abortion ban

[Ban abortions at any time during pregnancy] Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 144 14 14 14
Somewhat favor 130 13 13 27
Somewhat oppose 173 17 17 45
Strongly oppose 553 55 55 100
Skipped/Ref 4 0 0 100

J10: 6-week abortion ban

[Ban abortions after six weeks of pregnancy] Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 207 21 21 21
Somewhat favor 132 13 13 34
Somewhat oppose 191 19 19 53
Strongly oppose 464 46 46 99
Skipped/Ref 10 1 1 100

J11: 15-week abortion ban

[Ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy] Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 315 31 31 31
Somewhat favor 184 18 18 50
Somewhat oppose 196 20 20 69
Strongly oppose 298 30 30 99
Skipped/Ref 10 1 1 100

J12: 6-month abortion ban

[Ban abortions after 6 months of pregnancy] Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 461 46 46 46
Somewhat favor 188 19 19 65
Somewhat oppose 134 13 13 78
Strongly oppose 215 21 21 99
Skipped/Ref 5 1 1 100

J13: No abortion restrictions

[Place no restrictions on when a woman can obtain an abortion] Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strongly favor 237 24 24 24
Somewhat favor 158 16 16 39
Somewhat oppose 191 19 19 58
Strongly oppose 414 41 41 100
Skipped/Ref 5 0 0 100

J14: Texas abortion ban

A new Texas law bans abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy, once cardiac activity can be detected, and it allows any private citizen to sue anyone who performs an abortion or assists someone in obtaining an abortion. Do you favor or oppose this law, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favor 234 23 23 23
Oppose 553 55 55 78
Haven't heard enough 215 21 21 100
Skipped/Ref 2 0 0 100

J14: those with opinions only

[THOSE WITH OPINIONS ONLY] A new Texas law bans abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy, once cardiac activity can be detected, and it allows any private citizen to sue anyone who performs an abortion or assists someone in obtaining an abortion. Do you favor or oppose this law, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favor 234 23 30 30
Oppose 553 55 70 100
(Missing) 217 22 NA NA

J15: States banning abortion travel

Should a state be able to make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion by travelling to a different state where abortion is legal?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Yes 218 22 22 22
No 783 78 78 100
Skipped/Ref 3 0 0 100

P1: Chances will vote in Nov.

What are the chances that you will vote in the November general election for congressional and state offices-- are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Absolutely certain to vote 540 54 54 54
Very likely to vote 177 18 18 71
Chances are 50-50 178 18 18 89
Don't think will vote 80 8 8 97
Not eligible to vote 29 3 3 100

P2: Trump endorsement influence

Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Donald Trump, or would that not make a difference to your vote?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
More likely 232 23 23 23
Less likely 496 49 49 73
No difference 274 27 27 100
Skipped/Ref 2 0 0 100

P3: Trump endorsement knowledge

Do you know if Donald Trump has endorsed any of this year’s candidates in your state or not?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Yes, has endorsed 200 20 20 20
No, has not endorsed 74 7 7 27
Don't know if he has endorsed 724 72 72 99
Skipped/Ref 6 1 1 100

P4: Confidence in election

How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in [the 2020] election? Very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident.
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Very confident 404 40 40 40
Somewhat confident 171 17 17 57
Not too confident 209 21 21 78
Not at all confident 219 22 22 100
Skipped/Ref 2 0 0 100

P5: Donald Trump 2024

Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Yes 327 33 33 33
No 672 67 67 100
Skipped/Ref 4 0 0 100

P6: Fav/Unfav: Black Lives Matter movement

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the Black Lives Matter movement or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Favorable opinion 456 45 45 45
Unfavorable opinion 417 42 42 87
Haven't heard enough 130 13 13 100
Skipped/Ref 1 0 0 100

X1: Trust in government

How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?...Just about always, most of the time, only some of the time, never?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Just about always 15 1 1 1
Most of the time 212 21 21 23
Only some of the time 567 56 56 79
Never 209 21 21 100
Skipped/Ref 1 0 0 100

X2: Trust in others

Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted, or most people can't be trusted?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Most people can be trusted 536 53 53 53
Most people can't be trusted 467 46 46 100
Skipped/Ref 2 0 0 100

Z1: Party ID

Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Republican 278 28 28 28
Democrat 289 29 29 57
Independent 270 27 27 83
Other/No preference 164 16 16 100
Skipped/Ref 3 0 0 100

Z2A: Party ID strenth

Would you call yourself a strong [Republican/Democrat] or a not very strong [Republican/Democrat]?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Strong 359 36 63 63
Not very strong 208 21 37 100
Skipped/Ref 1 0 0 100
(Missing) 436 43 NA NA

Z2B: Party ID lean

Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Republican 107 11 25 25
Democratic 137 14 32 56
Neither 186 19 43 99
Skipped/Ref 3 0 1 100
(Missing) 570 57 NA NA

Z3: religious service attendance

Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
More than once a week 74 7 7 7
Once a week 158 16 16 23
Once or twice a month 82 8 8 31
A few times a year 147 15 15 46
Seldom 252 25 25 71
Never 291 29 29 100

Z4: born-again or evangelical

Would you describe yourself as a "born-again" or evangelical Christian, or not?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Yes, would 264 26 26 26
No, would not 740 74 74 100
Skipped/Ref 0 0 0 100

Z5: political ideology

Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Very conservative 126 13 13 13
Somewhat conservative 227 23 23 35
Moderate 347 35 35 70
Somewhat liberal 171 17 17 87
Very liberal 130 13 13 100
Skipped/Ref 3 0 0 100

Z6: talk to neighbors

Thinking back to the months prior to the COVID-19 outbreak in the US, how often did you talk with any of your neighbors?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Basically, every day 117 12 12 12
A few times a week 261 26 26 38
A few times a month 269 27 27 65
Once a month 92 9 9 74
Less than once a month 153 15 15 89
Not at all 112 11 11 100

Z7: volunteering

We are interested in volunteer activities for which people are not paid, except perhaps expenses.  In the last 12 months, have you done any volunteer activities through or for an organization?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Yes 261 26 26 26
No 741 74 74 100
Skipped/Ref 2 0 0 100

party ID, 5-cat

Party ID with leaners separate
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Republican 278 28 28 28
Lean Republican 107 11 11 38
Independent 189 19 19 57
Lean Democrat 137 14 14 71
Democrat 289 29 29 100
Refused 4 0 0 100

party ID, leaners as partisans

Party ID with leaners included
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Republican 385 38 38 38
Independent 189 19 19 57
Democrat 427 42 42 100
Refused 4 0 0 100

gender

sex
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Male 456 45 45 45
Female 527 52 52 98
Another gender 8 1 1 99
Skipped/Ref 14 1 1 100

age

age, 4 categories
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
18-29 206 20 20 20
30-44 248 25 25 45
45-59 249 25 25 70
60+ 301 30 30 100

education

education - 5 categories
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Less than HS 92 9 9 9
HS graduate 287 29 29 38
Vocational/tech school/some college/ associates 270 27 27 65
Bachelor's degree 175 17 17 82
Post grad study/professional degree 178 18 18 100
(Missing) 3 0 NA NA

income

income recode
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Less than $30k 332 33 33 33
$30k to less than $50k 179 18 18 51
$50k to less than $75k 172 17 17 68
$75k to less than $100k 125 12 12 80
$100k or more 190 19 19 99
DK/NA/Ref 6 1 1 100

marital status

marital status
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Married 462 46 46 46
Widowed 39 4 4 50
Divorced 89 9 9 59
Separated 26 3 3 61
Single, never married 256 25 25 87
Single, cohabitating 129 13 13 100
Skipped/Ref 3 0 0 100

race/ethnicity

race and hispanic origin
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
White 620 62 62 62
Black 114 11 11 73
Hispanic 169 17 17 90
Other/Multiple 82 8 8 98
Skipped/Ref 18 2 2 100

religious affiliation

religious identification
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Born-again Protestant 181 18 18 18
Mainline Protestant 133 13 13 31
Roman Catholic 200 20 20 51
No religion 314 31 31 82
Other religion 170 17 17 99
Skipped/Ref 5 1 1 100