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Marquette Law School Supreme Court Poll March 18-28, 2024
Likely voters
(Percentages are rounded to whole numbers for reporting of results. Frequencies have been rounded to whole numbers but percentages are calculated based on non-integer weighted sample sizes.)
Results for survey items among likely voters are presented here (unless otherwise indicated). Please note that some questions are only asked of particular groups of respondents. In these instances, the row “NA’s” includes the number and percent of total respondents omitted from the question. These omitted cases are ignored when calculating the “Valid” and “Cumulative” percent columns.
A1: interest in politics
| Some people seem to follow what's going on in politics most of the time, whether there's an election going on or not. Others aren't that interested. How often do you follow what's going on in politics…? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most of the time | 307 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Some of the time | 221 | 36 | 36 | 86 |
| Only now and then | 63 | 10 | 10 | 96 |
| Hardly at all | 23 | 4 | 4 | 100 |
A2: voter registration
| Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 614 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
A2B: registration intention
| Do you plan to register to vote, or is there a chance that you may not register? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Missing) | 614 | 100 | NA | NA |
A3: voting intention
| What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2024 general election for president, Congress, and other offices -- are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolutely certain | 614 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
A4: voting enthusiasm
| How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very enthusiastic | 281 | 46 | 46 | 46 |
| Somewhat enthusiastic | 171 | 28 | 28 | 74 |
| Not too enthusiastic | 112 | 18 | 18 | 92 |
| Not at all enthusiastic | 49 | 8 | 8 | 100 |
B1: Trump vs Biden
| If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Former President Donald Trump, the Republican] and [President Joe Biden, the Democrat] would you vote for [Donald Trump] or for [Joe Biden]? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 272 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Joe Biden | 276 | 45 | 45 | 89 |
| Someone else | 65 | 11 | 11 | 100 |
| Wouldn't vote | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
B1B: Trump vs Biden, lean
| If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [Trump]? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Definitely Donald Trump | 5 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Probably Donald Trump | 17 | 3 | 27 | 34 |
| Probably Joe Biden | 31 | 5 | 48 | 82 |
| Definitely Joe Biden | 12 | 2 | 18 | 100 |
| (Missing) | 548 | 89 | NA | NA |
B1: Trump vs Biden, with lean
| [combination of i4i and preference in i4leani] | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 294 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
| Joe Biden | 320 | 52 | 52 | 100 |
B2: Ballot w/3rd parties
| If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for [Democrat Joe Biden], [Republican Donald Trump], [independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr], [independent Cornel | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat, Joe Biden | 250 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Republican, Donald Trump | 251 | 41 | 41 | 82 |
| Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 77 | 13 | 13 | 94 |
| Independent Cornel West | 23 | 4 | 4 | 98 |
| The Green Party's Jill Stein | 13 | 2 | 2 | 100 |
| Web blank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
B3: Congressional generic ballot
| If the elections were held today for US Congress in your state, would you be more likely to vote for the [Republican candidate] or the [Democratic candidate]? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican candidate | 313 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| The Democratic candidate | 301 | 49 | 49 | 100 |
C1: SCOTUS approval
| Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Supreme Court is handling its job? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly approve | 60 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Somewhat approve | 238 | 39 | 39 | 48 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 173 | 28 | 28 | 77 |
| Strongly disapprove | 144 | 23 | 23 | 100 |
C1: SCOTUS approval (2-cat)
| Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Supreme Court is handling its job? | ||||
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approve | 297 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
| Disapprove | 316 | 52 | 52 | 100 |