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Marquette Law School Supreme Court Poll May 6-15, 2024

Registered voters

(Percentages are rounded to whole numbers for reporting of results. Frequencies have been rounded to whole numbers but percentages are calculated based on non-integer weighted sample sizes.)

Results for survey items among registered voters are presented here (unless otherwise indicated). Please note that some questions are only asked of particular groups of respondents. In these instances, the row “NA’s” includes the number and percent of total respondents omitted from the question. These omitted cases are ignored when calculating the “Valid” and “Cumulative” percent columns.

A1: interest in politics

Some people seem to follow what's going on in politics most of the time, whether there's an election going on or not. Others aren't that interested. How often do you follow what's going on in politics…?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Most of the time 350 43 43 43
Some of the time 309 38 38 81
Only now and then 116 14 14 96
Hardly at all 36 4 4 100

A2: voter registration

Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Yes 811 100 100 100

A2B: registration intention

Do you plan to register to vote, or is there a chance that you may not register?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
(Missing) 811 100 NA NA

A3: voting intention

What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2024 general election for president, Congress, and other offices -- are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Absolutely certain 624 77 77 77
Very Likely 113 14 14 91
Chances 50-50 64 8 8 99
Don't think will vote 9 1 1 100

A4: voting enthusiasm

How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Very enthusiastic 349 43 43 43
Somewhat enthusiastic 212 26 26 69
Not too enthusiastic 170 21 21 90
Not at all enthusiastic 79 10 10 100

B1: Trump vs Biden

If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Former President Donald Trump, the Republican] and [President Joe Biden, the Democrat] would you vote for [Donald Trump] or for [Joe Biden]?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Joe Biden 328 40 40 40
Donald Trump 356 44 44 84
Someone else 110 14 14 98
Wouldn't vote 17 2 2 100

B1B: Trump vs Biden, lean

If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [Trump]?
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Definitely Joe Biden 23 3 18 18
Probably Joe Biden 50 6 40 58
Probably Donald Trump 43 5 34 92
Definitely Donald Trump 10 1 8 100
(Missing) 684 84 NA NA

B1: Trump vs Biden, with lean

[combination of i4i and preference in i4leani]
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Joe Biden 402 50 50 50
Donald Trump 409 50 50 100

B2: Ballot w/3rd parties