MILWAUKEE\n\u2014 Just as there is a partisan split at the top of Wisconsin\u2019s state government,\npartisan divisions remain a key fact of public opinion in Wisconsin, according\nto a new Marquette Law School Poll. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The\nfirst poll since the November election finds voters split generally along party\nlines on state issues such as whether Wisconsin should drop out of a lawsuit\nchallenging the Affordable Care Act, often known as Obamacare, increase the\nminimum wage or prioritize increasing school spending over holding down\nproperty taxes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However,\nopinion on some issues was less divided, including support for having\nlegislative district boundaries be determined by a nonpartisan commission,\nsupport for increases in state funding for special education and support for\nWisconsin\u2019s accepting federal money to expand Medicaid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In\nother state issues: Determining a plan to pay for road improvements that\nattracts majority support remains a challenge. And many voters have not yet reached\nan opinion, favorable or unfavorable, on new Gov. Tony Evers or other new\nstatewide officeholders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
On\nnational issues, a majority oppose a border wall with Mexico, and more voters\nblame President Donald Trump than congressional Democrats for the partial\nshutdown of the federal government. A majority also say there is not enough\ncause to begin impeachment hearings against Trump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The\npoll was conducted January 16-20, 2019. The sample included 800 registered\nvoters in Wisconsin, interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of\nerror of +\/- 3.9 percentage points. Ten questions were asked of half the\nsample. Questions on Form A have a sample size of 399 and a margin of error of\n+\/- 5.5 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a sample size of 401 and a\nmargin of error of +\/- 5.5 percentage points. The half-sample items are listed\nat the end of this release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Forty-eight\npercent of registered voters think that Wisconsin should withdraw from a\nfederal lawsuit seeking to overturn the Affordable Care Act, also known as\nObamacare, while 42 percent think that the state should continue to participate\nin the suit. Nine percent say they do not have an opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A\nmajority, 62 percent, say the state should accept federal funds to expand\nMedicaid, which is called Badgercare in Wisconsin, while 25 percent oppose the\nexpansion, and 12 percent say they do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Views\non the Affordable Care Act lawsuit are sharply divided along partisan lines,\nwith 75 percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican (hereafter\n\u201cRepublicans including leaners\u201d) saying the state should continue in the\nlawsuit, while 20 percent want the state to withdraw. Among Democrats including\nleaners, 11 percent would continue in the suit, while 81 percent want the state\nto withdraw. Among independents who do not lean to a party, 32 percent want to\ncontinue and 39 percent want to withdraw from the suit. Twenty-four percent of\nindependents say they have no opinion on the lawsuit, as do 5 percent of\nRepublicans including leaners and 7 percent of Democrats including leaners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Partisans\nare less divided on expanding Medicaid. Among Republicans including leaners,\n43 percent say the state should expand Medicaid coverage while 41 percent\nreject the expansion. Among Democrats including leaners, 88 percent support the\nexpansion while 7 percent oppose it. Among independents who do not lean to\na party, 55 percent support the expansion while 28 percent oppose expanding\nMedicaid. Seventeen percent of independents and 16 percent of Republicans\nincluding leaners say they do not have an opinion, while 5 percent of Democrats\nincluding leaners are without an opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fifty-five\npercent of respondents prefer increasing spending on K-12 public schools, while\n39 percent say they prefer reducing property taxes. Sixty-two percent of\nRepublicans including leaners prefer reducing property taxes, while 32 percent\nsupport increased school spending. Among Democrats including leaners, 18\npercent prefer reduced taxes, while 76 percent favor additional spending on\nschools. Thirty-six percent of independents prefer lower taxes and 57 percent\nprefer increased spending on schools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Majorities\nacross partisan groups support a major increase in state aid for special\neducation. Overall, 73 percent favor such an increase, with 20 percent opposed.\nAmong Republicans including leaners, 62 percent support and 30 percent oppose\nincreased aid for special education. Among Democrats including leaners, 89\npercent support and 7 percent oppose more spending for special education. Among\nindependents, 65 percent support and 25 percent oppose more such spending. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Voters\nare reluctant to raise taxes and fees for roads and highways. Fifty-two percent\nprefer to keep gas taxes and fees where they are, while 42 percent favor\nincreasing taxes and fees to pay for increased spending on roads. Among\nRepublicans including leaners, 69 percent oppose a tax and fee increase for\nhighway spending, while 27 percent favor such an increase. Thirty-six percent\nof Democrats including leaners oppose raising taxes and fees to increase\nspending on roads, while 58 percent favor it. Among independents, 51 percent\noppose a tax and fee increase and 34 percent support an increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fifty-five\npercent of respondents say that they support increasing the minimum wage in\nWisconsin, while 39 percent oppose raising it. Thirty-two percent of\nRepublicans including leaners favor an increase, while 64 percent are opposed.\nAmong Democrats including leaners, 82 percent favor raising the minimum wage\nand 9 percent are opposed. Fifty percent of independents favor an increase and\n43 percent are opposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Criminal\njustice reform<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Voters\nare willing to consider releasing some prisoners before they have completed\ntheir full sentence, but support depends on how much of the sentence has been\nserved. Half the sample was asked if they agreed or disagreed with the\nstatement, \u201cOnce a prisoner has served at least half of their sentence, they\nshould be released from prison and given a less costly form of punishment if\nthey can demonstrate that they are no longer a threat to society.\u201d The other\nhalf of those polled were asked a question that specified release after\ntwo-thirds of the sentence was completed. For those asked about release after\nhalf of the sentence was served, 42 percent agreed with early release while 43\npercent opposed early release. When the time served was set at two-thirds of\nthe sentence, 51 percent supported early release and 34 percent were opposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Redistricting<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Seventy-two\npercent of voters say they prefer redistricting of legislative and\ncongressional districts to be done by a nonpartisan commission, while 18\npercent prefer redistricting be done by the legislature and governor.\nMajorities in each partisan group favor a nonpartisan commission for\nredistricting, with 63 percent of Republicans including leaners, 83 percent of\nDemocrats including leaners, and 76 percent of independents favoring a\nnonpartisan commission. Less than 30 percent of each group preferred\nredistricting be done by the legislature and governor, with support for the\ncurrent system coming from 27 percent of Republicans including leaners, 10\npercent of Democrats including leaners, and 10 percent of independents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Marijuana\nlegalization<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Fifty-nine\npercent of respondents say that use of marijuana should be made legal, while\n35 percent oppose legalization. When this question was last asked in\nSeptember 2014, 46 percent favored legalization and 51 percent were\nopposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n An\nalternative wording of the question produced similar results. When asked if\nmarijuana should be \u201cfully legalized and regulated like alcohol,\u201d 58 percent\nfavored legalization and 36 percent opposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lame-duck\nlegislation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Fifteen\npercent of voters strongly approve of the limits placed on the governor and\nattorney general by the lame-duck session of the legislature, with 16 percent\napproving somewhat. Forty-one percent strongly disapprove and 14 percent\ndisapprove somewhat. Fourteen percent lack an opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Concerning\nformer Gov. Scott Walker\u2019s decision to sign the lame duck legislation, 18 percent\nstrongly approve, 15 percent somewhat approve, 11 percent somewhat disapprove\nand 41 percent strongly disapprove. Fourteen percent lack an opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After\nleaving office, Walker said in interviews that he might consider a future run\nfor office in Wisconsin. Thirty-seven percent say they would like to see him\nrun for governor or senator in 2022, while 53 percent say they do not want him\nto run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cooperation\nbetween governor and legislature<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forty-seven\npercent say that Gov. Tony Evers is trying to cooperate with Wisconsin\nlegislative leaders, while 25 percent say Evers really is not interested in\ncooperating. Twenty-eight percent say they do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Twenty-two\npercent of respondents say Wisconsin legislative leaders are trying to\ncooperate with Evers, while 46 percent say the leaders are not really\ninterested in cooperating. Thirty-two percent say they do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n National\nissues<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forty-four\npercent of respondents favor building a wall along the border with Mexico,\nwhile 51 percent oppose the wall. In March 2017, when the question was first\nasked, 37 percent favored and 59 percent opposed building a wall. When asked\nmost recently, in August 2018, 41 percent favored and 54 percent opposed\nbuilding a wall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Twenty-nine\npercent of respondents support the partial shutdown of the federal government\nover the issue of funding a border wall, with 66 percent opposed to the\nshutdown. Fifty-five percent of Republicans including leaners support the\nshutdown, while 41 percent oppose it. Five percent of Democrats including\nleaners support the shutdown, while 92 percent oppose it. Among independents,\n25 percent support the shutdown, with 69 percent opposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Respondents\nwere asked, \u201cRegardless of how you feel about the shutdown, who do you think is\nmost responsible for it?\u201d Forty-three percent say Trump, 7 percent say\nRepublicans in Congress, 34 percent say Democrats in Congress and 14 percent\nsay all are equally responsible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Opinions\nof President Trump<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Forty-four\npercent approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52 percent\ndisapprove. When last asked October 24-28, 2018, 47 percent approved and 50\npercent disapproved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Forty-two\npercent say the phrase \u201ccares about people like me\u201d describes Trump, while 55\npercent say this does not describe him. When last asked in August 2018, 39\npercent said \u201ccares about people like me\u201d described Trump and 57 percent said\nit did not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Thirty-one\npercent say \u201chonest\u201d describes Trump, while 62 percent say this does not\ndescribe him. When last asked in June 2017, 35 percent said \u201chonest\u201d described\nTrump and 59 percent said it did not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Twenty\npercent say Trump has changed the Republican party for the better, 44 percent\nsay he has changed it for the worse, and 31 percent say he has not changed the\nparty either way. In late October 2018, 28 percent said he had changed the\nparty for the better, 47 percent said he had changed it for the worse, and 21\npercent said he had not changed the party either way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Asked\nif there is \u201cenough cause right now\u201d for Congress to begin hearings on whether\nto impeach Trump, 33 percent say there is enough cause and 59 percent say there\nis not enough cause to begin hearings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Among\nall registered voters, 27 percent say they would definitely vote to reelect\nTrump if the 2020 elections were held today, 12 percent say they would probably\nvote to reelect him. Eight percent would probably vote for someone else and 49\npercent would definitely vote for someone else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Democratic\npresidential primary outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Democrats\nand independents were asked about eight announced and potential candidates for\nthe Democratic presidential nomination. With more than a year to go until the\nWisconsin presidential primary, many of these candidates are little known to\nvoters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For\neach candidate, respondents were asked if this would be a top choice for them,\nan acceptable choice, someone they would not support, or if they did not know\nenough about them yet. The results are shown in Table 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table 1:\nOpinion of potential Democratic candidates<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n State\nof the state<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Fifty-seven\npercent of Wisconsin registered voters see the state as headed in the right\ndirection, while 33 percent think the state is off on the wrong track. In late\nOctober 2018, 55 percent said right direction and 40 percent said wrong track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In\nthe first Marquette Law School Poll since he took office, Evers\u2019 job approval\namong registered voters stands at 39 percent, with 22 percent disapproving and\n38 percent saying they do not have an opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nWisconsin legislature has a 52-percent approval rating, with 31 percent\ndisapproval and 16 percent without an opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Evers\nis viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 24 percent. Another 28\npercent say they have not heard enough about him, and 6 percent say they do not\nknow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Assembly\nSpeaker Robin Vos is viewed favorably by 13 percent and unfavorably by 17\npercent, with 59 percent saying they have not heard enough about him and 11\npercent saying they do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Senate\nMajority Leader Scott Fitzgerald is viewed favorably by 24 percent and\nunfavorably by 19 percent, with 47 percent saying they have not heard enough\nabout him and 10 percent saying they do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For\nAttorney General Josh Kaul, 16 percent have a favorable view and 7 percent have\nan unfavorable view. Sixty-seven percent say they have not heard enough about\nhim and 10 percent say they do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For\nLieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, the numbers are 16 percent favorable, 7\npercent unfavorable, 67 percent who say they have not heard enough about him,\nand 9 percent who say they do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n About\nthe Marquette Law School Poll<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nMarquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in\nWisconsin history. This poll interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by\nlandline or cell phone, January 16-20, 2019. The margin of error is +\/-3.9\npercentage points for the full sample.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ten\nissue questions were asked of half the sample. Questions on Form A have a\nsample size of 399 and a margin of error of +\/- 5.5 percentage points.\nQuestions on Form B have a sample size of 401 and a margin of error of +\/- 5.5\npercentage points. Form A items include marijuana legalization, early prison\nrelease after half of sentence, possible Walker candidacy in 2022, preference\nfor property tax cuts or more school spending, and preference for holding gas\ntax and fees at current level or increasing them to pay for roads. Form B items\ninclude marijuana legalization (with regulation like alcohol), early prison\nrelease after two-thirds of sentence, expansion of Medicaid, minimum wage\nincrease and an increase in aid for special education. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The\npartisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45\npercent Republican, 43 percent Democratic and 11 percent independent. The\nlong-term total for the previous 50 statewide Marquette polls, with 44,952\nrespondents, is 43 percent Republican and 47 percent Democratic, with 9 percent\nindependent. The partisan makeup of the current sample, excluding those who\nlean to a party, is 29 percent Republican, 28 percent Democratic and 42\npercent independent, compared to the long-term totals of 28 percent\nRepublican, 31 percent Democratic and 40 percent independent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n \n <\/td> \n Top\n Choice\n <\/td> \n Acceptable\n <\/td> \n Not\n support\n <\/td> \n Not\n heard enough\n <\/td><\/tr> \n Joe\n Biden\n <\/td> \n 32\n <\/td> \n 44\n <\/td> \n 16\n <\/td> \n 7\n <\/td><\/tr> \n Bernie\n Sanders\n <\/td> \n 23\n <\/td> \n 38\n <\/td> \n 28\n <\/td> \n 9\n <\/td><\/tr> \n Elizabeth\n Warren\n <\/td> \n 15\n <\/td> \n 36\n <\/td> \n 17\n <\/td> \n 30\n <\/td><\/tr> \n Kamala\n Harris\n <\/td> \n 8\n <\/td> \n 23\n <\/td> \n 11\n <\/td> \n 54\n <\/td><\/tr> \n Cory\n Booker\n <\/td> \n 8\n <\/td> \n 24\n <\/td> \n 8\n <\/td> \n 56\n <\/td><\/tr> \n Beto\n O\u2019Rourke\n <\/td> \n 12\n <\/td> \n 21\n <\/td> \n 8\n <\/td> \n 56\n <\/td><\/tr> \n Amy\n Klobuchar\n <\/td> \n 5\n <\/td> \n 20\n <\/td> \n 8\n <\/td> \n 62\n <\/td><\/tr> \n Julian\n Castro\n <\/td> \n 4\n <\/td> \n 16\n <\/td> \n 10\n <\/td> \n 65\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n