{"id":2885,"date":"2023-03-29T23:53:59","date_gmt":"2023-03-30T04:53:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/?p=2885"},"modified":"2023-03-30T00:00:39","modified_gmt":"2023-03-30T05:00:39","slug":"new-marquette-law-school-national-survey-finds-a-very-close-race-for-president-in-2024-trump-and-desantis-top-gop-primary-field-biden-job-approval-rating-declines-to-39","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/2023\/03\/29\/new-marquette-law-school-national-survey-finds-a-very-close-race-for-president-in-2024-trump-and-desantis-top-gop-primary-field-biden-job-approval-rating-declines-to-39\/","title":{"rendered":"New Marquette Law School national survey finds a very close race for president in 2024; Trump and DeSantis top GOP primary field; Biden job approval rating declines to 39%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

MILWAUKEE \u2013 A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds very close races between President Joe Biden and either former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in hypothetical 2024 presidential elections. Among registered voters, Biden and Trump each receive 38% of the vote, with 20% saying that they would vote for someone else and 4% that they would not vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a matchup between Biden and DeSantis, DeSantis receives 42% and Biden is the choice of 41%, with 13% saying they would vote for someone else and 4% saying they would not vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 1: Biden vs. Trump trend, among registered voters<\/strong><\/em><\/td><\/tr>
Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Donald Trump<\/strong><\/td>Joe Biden<\/strong><\/td>Someone else<\/strong><\/td>Wouldn\u2019t vote<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
11\/1-10\/21<\/td>35<\/td>43<\/td>18<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
1\/10-21\/22<\/td>33<\/td>45<\/td>18<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
3\/14-24\/22<\/td>38<\/td>43<\/td>16<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>36<\/td>42<\/td>19<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>34<\/td>44<\/td>19<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>40<\/td>40<\/td>17<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>38<\/td>38<\/td>20<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

 The trend in the Biden vs. Trump matchup is shown in Table 1<\/em><\/a> and the Biden vs DeSantis trend is shown in Table 2<\/em><\/a>. While Biden led Trump through 2022, the two have been tied in the first two 2023 polls. DeSantis has also moved into a very close race with Biden, leading Biden in January by 7 points but holding just a 1-point edge in March. In both matchups, the relatively high percentages saying they would vote for \u201csomeone else\u201d or would not vote indicates the potential for volatility in coming months as candidate choices become clarified. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
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Table 2: Biden vs. DeSantis trend, among registered voters<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Ron DeSantis<\/strong><\/td>Joe Biden<\/strong><\/td>Someone else<\/strong><\/td>Wouldn\u2019t vote<\/strong><\/td>Web blank<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1\/10-21\/22<\/td>34<\/td>43<\/td>17<\/td>5<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
3\/14-24\/22<\/td>35<\/td>39<\/td>19<\/td>5<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>38<\/td>43<\/td>15<\/td>5<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>42<\/td>42<\/td>11<\/td>4<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>45<\/td>38<\/td>13<\/td>4<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>42<\/td>41<\/td>13<\/td>4<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The latest Marquette Law School Poll\u2019s national survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +\/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +\/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +\/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +\/-5.9 percentage points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republican primary choices<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump leads in the presidential nomination race, with 40% among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican, while DeSantis is the choice of 35%. Former Vice President Mike Pence is supported by 5% and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by 5%. No other potential candidate received more than 1% support, while 12% said they were undecided or did not support any of the 11 names offered in the question. Table 3<\/em><\/a> shows the full results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 3: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, who would you vote for? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican. *=less than 0.5%<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Candidate<\/strong><\/td>Percent<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Donald Trump<\/td>40<\/td><\/tr>
Ron DeSantis<\/td>35<\/td><\/tr>
Mike Pence<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
Nikki Haley<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
Mike Pompeo<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
Chris Sununu<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
Kristi Noem<\/td>*<\/td><\/tr>
Chris Christie<\/td>*<\/td><\/tr>
Tim Scott<\/td>*<\/td><\/tr>
Asa Hutchinson<\/td>*<\/td><\/tr>
Glenn Youngkin<\/td>*<\/td><\/tr>
Undecided<\/td>10<\/td><\/tr>
None of these<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

When asked to choose if the choice were between only Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 54% and Trump is the choice of 46%. That represents a sharp tightening of the race since January, when DeSantis received 64% to Trump\u2019s 36%. The trend is shown in Table 4<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 4: If it were a choice between just the two of them, who would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Donald Trump<\/strong><\/td>Ron DeSantis<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>40<\/td>60<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>36<\/td>64<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>46<\/td>54<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Among those who choose a candidate other than DeSantis or Trump in the multi-candidate question, DeSantis picks up almost three-quarters of the support when they are asked to decide between DeSantis and Trump. A handful of respondents shift away from their first choice of Trump or DeSantis in the subsequent two-candidate question. Those initially undecided or not choosing any named candidate split close to evenly when offered only Trump or DeSantis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 5: Choice between Trump or DeSantis only, by first choice in multi-candidate question, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Respondent\u2019s multi-candidate choice<\/strong><\/td>Donald Trump<\/strong><\/td>Ron DeSantis<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Trump<\/td>91<\/td>9<\/td><\/tr>
DeSantis<\/td>3<\/td>97<\/td><\/tr>
Other candidate<\/td>26<\/td>74<\/td><\/tr>
Undecided\/None<\/td>43<\/td>56<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DeSantis holds a slight lead among those who call themselves \u201cRepublicans,\u201d but sees a larger advantage among independents who say they lean Republican, as shown in Table 6<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 6: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by strength of Republican identification among registered voters<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strength of Republican identification<\/strong><\/td>Donald Trump<\/strong><\/td>Ron DeSantis<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Republican<\/td>48<\/td>52<\/td><\/tr>
Lean Republican<\/td>40<\/td>60<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DeSantis has more support than Trump among those Republicans and Republican leaners who describe themselves as very or somewhat conservative, while Trump does better among those who consider themselves moderate or liberal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 7: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by ideology among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ideology<\/strong><\/td>Donald Trump<\/strong><\/td>Ron DeSantis<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Very conservative<\/td>46<\/td>54<\/td><\/tr>
Somewhat conservative<\/td>41<\/td>59<\/td><\/tr>
Moderate or liberal<\/td>53<\/td>46<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Trump has greater support among Republicans without a college degree while DeSantis does better among those with at least a bachelor\u2019s degree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 8: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by education among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

College grad<\/strong><\/td>Donald Trump<\/strong><\/td>Ron DeSantis<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Non-college grad<\/td>51<\/td>49<\/td><\/tr>
College grad<\/td>37<\/td>63<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DeSantis is well-liked among Republicans who also hold a favorable view of Trump, making him a competitor to Trump from inside Trump\u2019s coalition. DeSantis is less well-liked among Republicans unfavorable to Trump. Table 9<\/em><\/a> shows favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 9: DeSantis favorability, by Trump favorability among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump favorability<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion of DeSantis<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion of DeSantis<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Favorable opinion<\/td>80<\/td>8<\/td>12<\/td><\/tr>
Unfavorable opinion<\/td>51<\/td>32<\/td>17<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Despite leading Trump among those who prefer a candidate other than Trump or DeSantis, DeSantis has negative favorability among those respondents, and it is notably less favorable than among those who make Trump their top pick in the multi-candidate choice question. DeSantis has a quite favorable rating among those for whom Trump is their first choice for the presidential nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 10: DeSantis favorability, by multi-candidate first choice among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Multi-candidate 1st choice<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Trump<\/td>71<\/td>10<\/td>19<\/td><\/tr>
DeSantis<\/td>93<\/td>5<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Other candidate<\/td>36<\/td>42<\/td>23<\/td><\/tr>
Undecided\/None<\/td>30<\/td>35<\/td>35<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Favorability toward potential GOP candidates<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Republican voters, Trump is nearly universally known and Pence and DeSantis are fairly well-known. Most other potential Republican candidates are far less familiar to Republican voters. Table 11<\/em><\/a> shows the favorable, unfavorable, and haven\u2019t-heard-enough responses to eight potential candidates.
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Table 11: Favorability ratings of potential Republican candidates, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Name<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Trump<\/td>66<\/td>31<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Pence<\/td>48<\/td>41<\/td>11<\/td><\/tr>
DeSantis<\/td>69<\/td>15<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr>
Pompeo<\/td>31<\/td>24<\/td>45<\/td><\/tr>
Haley<\/td>40<\/td>13<\/td>47<\/td><\/tr>
Scott<\/td>30<\/td>7<\/td>63<\/td><\/tr>
Noem<\/td>26<\/td>9<\/td>64<\/td><\/tr>
Youngkin<\/td>23<\/td>11<\/td>66<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s favorability rating among Republicans and independents who lean Republican has declined since July 2022, when he peaked in the Marquette survey at 76%, to 66%, despite a 70% favorable rating in January. The full trend is shown in Table 12<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 12: Trump favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
11\/1-10\/21<\/td>70<\/td>29<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
1\/10-21\/22<\/td>71<\/td>28<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
3\/14-24\/22<\/td>75<\/td>23<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
5\/9-19\/22<\/td>75<\/td>22<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
7\/5-12\/22<\/td>76<\/td>22<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>74<\/td>25<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>67<\/td>32<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>70<\/td>28<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>66<\/td>31<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DeSantis\u2019s favorable ratings also dipped slightly in March after steadily rising in the previous year of polling, as shown in Table 13<\/em><\/a>.
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Table 13: DeSantis favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1\/10-21\/22<\/td>57<\/td>9<\/td>34<\/td><\/tr>
3\/14-24\/22<\/td>57<\/td>7<\/td>35<\/td><\/tr>
5\/9-19\/22<\/td>58<\/td>15<\/td>27<\/td><\/tr>
7\/5-12\/22<\/td>62<\/td>9<\/td>29<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>65<\/td>10<\/td>25<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>68<\/td>10<\/td>22<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>71<\/td>10<\/td>19<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>69<\/td>15<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Favorability to governors<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For comparison with widely mentioned possible presidential candidates, the survey also asked about five Republican and five Democratic governors. These figures are all prominent in their own states but are not well-known nationally. For these ratings, each was identified as a governor and the state was mentioned, but not the governor\u2019s party. The potential presidential candidates, discussed above, were not identified by current or past office. (Youngkin was included in both lists. Identifying him as governor of Virginia in the governors\u2019 list only slightly reduced the percentage saying they hadn\u2019t heard enough about him.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 14<\/em><\/a> shows the favorability ratings for five Republican governors among Republicans and independents who lean Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 14: Favorability ratings of Republican governors, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Name<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Greg Abbott, Texas<\/td>59<\/td>9<\/td>32<\/td><\/tr>
Brian Kemp, Georgia<\/td>28<\/td>12<\/td>60<\/td><\/tr>
Glenn Youngkin, Virginia<\/td>30<\/td>9<\/td>61<\/td><\/tr>
Mike DeWine, Ohio<\/td>20<\/td>10<\/td>69<\/td><\/tr>
Chris Sununu, New Hampshire<\/td>13<\/td>12<\/td>75<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Favorability ratings for five Democratic governors, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, are shown in Table 15<\/em><\/a>.
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Table 15: Favorability ratings of Democratic governors, among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Name<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Gavin Newsom, California<\/td>48<\/td>16<\/td>35<\/td><\/tr>
Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan<\/td>43<\/td>5<\/td>52<\/td><\/tr>
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania<\/td>22<\/td>7<\/td>72<\/td><\/tr>
Wes Moore, Maryland<\/td>12<\/td>6<\/td>82<\/td><\/tr>
Jared Polis, Colorado<\/td>13<\/td>5<\/td>83<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Presidential approval<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Approval of Biden\u2019s handling of his job as president declined in March to 39%, with 61% disapproving. In January, 43% approved and 56% disapproved. Biden\u2019s approval in March is the second-lowest of his presidency in the Marquette Law School Poll. The full trend for Biden approval in Marquette Law School Poll national surveys is shown in Table 16<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 16: Biden job approval, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Approve<\/strong><\/td>Disapprove<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
7\/16-26\/21<\/td>58<\/td>42<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-16\/21<\/td>48<\/td>52<\/td><\/tr>
11\/1-10\/21<\/td>49<\/td>51<\/td><\/tr>
1\/10-21\/22<\/td>46<\/td>53<\/td><\/tr>
3\/14-24\/22<\/td>44<\/td>55<\/td><\/tr>
5\/9-19\/22<\/td>42<\/td>57<\/td><\/tr>
7\/5-12\/22<\/td>36<\/td>64<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>45<\/td>55<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>45<\/td>55<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>43<\/td>56<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>39<\/td>61<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Biden\u2019s favorability ratings among all adults also closely mirrors his approval rating and also declined in March, as shown in Table 17<\/em><\/a>.
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Table 17: Biden favorability rating, among all adults<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
11\/1-10\/21<\/td>45<\/td>49<\/td>6<\/td><\/tr>
1\/10-21\/22<\/td>45<\/td>51<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
3\/14-24\/22<\/td>44<\/td>53<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
5\/9-19\/22<\/td>40<\/td>55<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
7\/5-12\/22<\/td>34<\/td>62<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>43<\/td>54<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>43<\/td>53<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>41<\/td>54<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>37<\/td>59<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As shown in Table 18<\/em><\/a>, Vice President Kamala Harris\u2019s favorability is a bit below that of Biden, which is common for vice presidents, as is her higher \u201chaven\u2019t heard enough\u201d percentage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 18: Harris favorability rating, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
11\/1-10\/21<\/td>38<\/td>46<\/td>16<\/td><\/tr>
1\/10-21\/22<\/td>37<\/td>49<\/td>14<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>36<\/td>52<\/td>13<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>34<\/td>50<\/td>16<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>32<\/td>54<\/td>13<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>31<\/td>54<\/td>16<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was mentioned frequently in recent coverage of a train derailment and chemical spill in Ohio. His favorable rating has barely changed since September, although his unfavorable ratings have increased since November and fewer people say they lack an opinion of him, as shown in Table 19<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 19: Buttigieg favorability rating, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1\/10-21\/22<\/td>28<\/td>27<\/td>45<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>26<\/td>33<\/td>42<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>26<\/td>29<\/td>45<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>25<\/td>32<\/td>43<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>26<\/td>36<\/td>38<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The freight train derailment and hazardous chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio, were widely known, with 62% saying they had heard a lot about this, 25% saying they had heard a little, and 13% having heard nothing at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those who heard a lot were more unfavorable to Buttigieg than those who heard less, although there was no difference on the favorable side of the ratings by amount heard concerning the derailment, as shown in Table 20<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 20: Buttigieg favorability rating by amount heard about train derailment, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heard about derailment<\/strong><\/td>Favorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Unfavorable opinion<\/strong><\/td>Haven\u2019t heard enough<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
A lot<\/td>29<\/td>41<\/td>30<\/td><\/tr>
A little<\/td>28<\/td>32<\/td>40<\/td><\/tr>
Nothing at all<\/td>7<\/td>25<\/td>69<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Abortion issues<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As stated in a release yesterday concerning the same national survey but focusing on public opinion about the Supreme Court, a majority, 67%, of all those polled oppose the Court\u2019s 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization<\/em>, which overturned abortion rights established in Roe v. Wade<\/em> in 1973, while 33% favor the Dobbs<\/em> decision. Opposition to the Dobbs<\/em> decision has remained stable since November 2022, as shown in Table 21<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 21: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Favor<\/strong><\/td>Oppose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>33<\/td>66<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>35<\/td>64<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>33<\/td>67<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That is the only table repeated from yesterday\u2019s release, given the relationship of its topic with the topics of the next two tables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opinion about abortion policy has fluctuated only slightly since May 2022, as shown in Table 22<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 22: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Legal in all cases<\/strong><\/td>Legal in most cases<\/strong><\/td>Illegal in most cases<\/strong><\/td>Illegal in all cases<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
5\/9-19\/22<\/td>29<\/td>38<\/td>24<\/td>8<\/td><\/tr>
7\/5-12\/22<\/td>28<\/td>36<\/td>27<\/td>8<\/td><\/tr>
9\/7-14\/22<\/td>31<\/td>37<\/td>26<\/td>6<\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>29<\/td>36<\/td>26<\/td>9<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>26<\/td>38<\/td>28<\/td>8<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>28<\/td>39<\/td>27<\/td>6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As states have adopted widely varying laws concerning abortion following the Dobbs<\/em> ruling, public opinion has strongly favored allowing abortion in cases of rape or incest, with 88% in favor and 11% saying abortion should not be allowed in these circumstances. In September 2022, 90% said abortion should be allowed and 10% said it should not be in this circumstance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A large majority, 74%, oppose states being able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill prescriptions for medication to induce an abortion from out of state providers, while 26% favor states having that ability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The public is substantially opposed to restrictions on travel to another state to obtain a legal abortion, with 81% saying states should not be able to make such travel illegal and 19% saying states should be able to ban out-of-state travel for abortions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opinion is evenly divided on a proposal to pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Table 23<\/em><\/a> shows opinion on this, with partisan differences. Republicans and Democrats are virtual mirror images on this question, while independents are more evenly divided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 23: Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party ID<\/strong><\/td>Favor<\/strong><\/td>Oppose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Total<\/td>49<\/td>51<\/td><\/tr>
Republican<\/td>74<\/td>26<\/td><\/tr>
Independent<\/td>46<\/td>53<\/td><\/tr>
Democrat<\/td>25<\/td>75<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vouchers for private schools<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several states recently have passed or are considering proposals to provide state funding for vouchers to pay for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools. Opinion is closely divided on this among adults nationally, with substantial partisan differences as shown in Table 24<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 24: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party ID<\/strong><\/td>Favor<\/strong><\/td>Oppose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Total<\/td>53<\/td>47<\/td><\/tr>
Republican<\/td>62<\/td>38<\/td><\/tr>
Independent<\/td>60<\/td>37<\/td><\/tr>
Democrat<\/td>42<\/td>58<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Support for such vouchers is stronger among those with school-age children in the home than those without children, shown in Table 25<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 25: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, by school-age children in home, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

School-age children?<\/strong><\/td>Favor funding<\/strong><\/td>Oppose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Kids at home<\/td>63<\/td>37<\/td><\/tr>
No kids at home<\/td>49<\/td>51<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Those who say they are born-again Protestants or are Roman Catholics are more supportive of school vouchers than are those of other faiths or those without a religious identification, as shown in Table 26<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 26: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools by religious identification, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Religion<\/strong><\/td>Favor<\/strong><\/td>Oppose<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Born-again Protestant<\/td>67<\/td>33<\/td><\/tr>
Mainline Protestant<\/td>49<\/td>51<\/td><\/tr>
Roman Catholic<\/td>67<\/td>33<\/td><\/tr>
No religion<\/td>36<\/td>63<\/td><\/tr>
Other religion<\/td>48<\/td>51<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Views of the police<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forty-four percent of respondents in this national poll say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police, 33% have some confidence, and 23% have little or no confidence. Confidence is higher among white respondents and lower among Hispanic and mixed-race people and is especially low among Black respondents, as shown in Table 27<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 27: The police: here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? by race, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Race and ethnicity<\/strong><\/td>Great deal\/quite a lot<\/strong><\/td>Some<\/strong><\/td>Very little\/None<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
White<\/td>52<\/td>31<\/td>17<\/td><\/tr>
Black<\/td>17<\/td>39<\/td>44<\/td><\/tr>
Hispanic<\/td>33<\/td>38<\/td>28<\/td><\/tr>
Other\/Multiple<\/td>37<\/td>33<\/td>29<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A majority, 57%, say that recent killings of Black Americans by the police is part of a larger pattern of police treatment of Black people, while 43% say these are isolated incidents. Table 28<\/em><\/a> shows how these views differ by race and ethnicity of respondents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 28: Do you think recent killings of Black Americans by police are isolated incidents or part of a larger pattern in the police\u2019s treatment of Black Americans? by race, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Race and ethnicity<\/strong><\/td>Isolated incidents<\/strong><\/td>Part of a larger pattern<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
White<\/td>54<\/td>46<\/td><\/tr>
Black<\/td>8<\/td>90<\/td><\/tr>
Hispanic<\/td>35<\/td>65<\/td><\/tr>
Other\/Multiple<\/td>21<\/td>79<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Aid to Ukraine<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opinion on U.S. military aid to Ukraine has shown partisan divisions in recent months. In this March poll, 34% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 41% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. The percentage saying \u201ctoo much support\u201d increased by 5 percentage points from January, as shown in Table 29<\/em><\/a>.<\/a>
<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 29: When it comes to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll dates<\/strong><\/td>Too much support<\/strong><\/td>Not enough support<\/strong><\/td>About the right amount of support<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
11\/15-22\/22<\/td>32<\/td>23<\/td>45<\/td><\/tr>
1\/9-20\/23<\/td>29<\/td>24<\/td>46<\/td><\/tr>
3\/13-22\/23<\/td>34<\/td>24<\/td>41<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Table 30<\/em><\/a> shows partisan differences on aid to Ukraine in the March poll. Just over half of Republicans, 52%, say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 36% of Independents and 16% of Democrats agree with that view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 30: When it comes to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party ID<\/strong><\/td>Too much support<\/strong><\/td>Not enough support<\/strong><\/td>About the right amount of support<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Total<\/td>34<\/td>24<\/td>41<\/td><\/tr>
Republican<\/td>52<\/td>15<\/td>33<\/td><\/tr>
Independent<\/td>36<\/td>18<\/td>45<\/td><\/tr>
Democrat<\/td>16<\/td>36<\/td>48<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 55% say it is better for the country to take an active part, while 45% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out and a minority, 41%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are evenly split on international involvement, and Democrats are substantially in favor of a U.S. role in the world, as shown in Table 31<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 31: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?, among all adults<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party ID<\/strong><\/td>Take an active part in world affairs<\/strong><\/td>Stay out of world affairs<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Total<\/td>55<\/td>45<\/td><\/tr>
Republican<\/td>48<\/td>52<\/td><\/tr>
Independent<\/td>41<\/td>56<\/td><\/tr>
Democrat<\/td>67<\/td>33<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

About the Marquette Law School Poll<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest Marquette Law School Poll\u2019s national Supreme Court survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +\/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +\/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +\/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +\/-5.9 percentage points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, March 29, 2023, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/category\/results-and-data\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MILWAUKEE \u2013 A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds very close races between President Joe Biden and either former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in hypothetical 2024 presidential elections. Among registered voters, Biden and Trump each receive 38% of the vote, with 20% saying that they would vote for someone […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[19],"class_list":["post-2885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-poll-release","tag-poll-release","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2885"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2885\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2887,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2885\/revisions\/2887"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/law.marquette.edu\/poll\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}