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MILWAUKEE\u2013 A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Democratic primary voters finds state Rep. Francesca Hong leading with 38%, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes with 16% and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 7%. Former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan is supported by 2%, and State Sen. Kelda Roys is also the choice of 2%. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll survey conducted July 8-16, Hong had 26% and Barnes had 15%. Crowley was not a candidate at the time of the earlier poll, while Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who subsequently suspended her campaign, had 11%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this poll, 34% of primary voters remain undecided, down from 45% in the previous poll. The primary election is on Aug. 11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Asked for their second choice in the primary, 20% pick Barnes, 13% choose Crowley, 12% prefer Roys, with Hong receiving 8% of second choices and Brennan 7%. The remaining 40% say they haven\u2019t decided on a second choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Among those who are initially undecided, 22% say they lean to Hong if they had to choose, with 15% leaning to Barnes, 11% to Crowley, 6% toward Brennan, and 6% to Roys. A considerable 40% of the initially undecided say they don\u2019t know how they lean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When those who lean to a candidate are combined with first choices, Hong\u2019s support expands to 46%, ahead of Barnes at 21%, Crowley at 11%, Brennan at 4%, and Roys at 4%. Fourteen percent are undecided and not leaning to any candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The poll was conducted July 22-27, 2026, with 407 registered voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, including early absentee voters, with a margin of error of +\/-6.6 percentage points. The sample includes 254 respondents who were also previously interviewed July 8-16 and 153 new respondents. Interviews were attempted with all Democratic primary respondents from the July 8-16 poll, with a 59% success (reinterview) rate, as well as an additional fresh sample.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Among respondents, Crowley is seen favorably by 22%, unfavorably by 10%, and 67% say they haven\u2019t heard enough to have an opinion. When the question was last asked in March, 16% of Democratic primary voters had a favorable opinion of Crowley, 4% were unfavorable, and 79% hadn\u2019t heard enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Crowley\u2019s reentry into the race was accompanied with an endorsement by Gov. Tony Evers. In this poll of Democratic primary voters, 62% say they have heard of the endorsement and 38% have not heard of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Among primary voters, 36% say the Evers endorsement makes them more likely to support Crowley, 9% say less likely, and 56% say the endorsement doesn\u2019t make any difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sources of support<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n As in the previous poll, Hong draws her strongest support from younger voters and from those who describe themselves as very liberal. Her support in each group is stronger in this week\u2019s poll than in the previous one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hong wins two-thirds of those 18-29 and just over half of those 30-44, as well as 37% of those 45-59 and 14% of voters 60 or older. By contrast, Barnes\u2019 support rises with age, as does Crowley\u2019s to a lesser extent. These relationships are stronger in the current poll than in the previous one. Candidate support by age is shown for each poll in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table <\/strong>1<\/strong>: Democratic primary vote, by age<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Among registered voters in the Democratic primary<\/p>\n\n\n\n Those who were initially undecided were asked which candidate they leaned toward if they had to choose. Combining these leaning voters with first choices of candidates provides a measure of votes including these leaners. Vote choice, including those who lean to a candidate, is shown by age in Table 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table <\/strong>2<\/strong>: Democratic primary vote including leaners, by age<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Among registered voters in the Democratic primary<\/p>\n\n\n\n As with the last poll, Hong trails Barnes among moderate and conservative primary voters, but develops a lead with those who describe themselves as liberal and extends that to an overwhelming advantage among very liberal voters. This pattern is stronger in the current poll. Vote choice by the respondent\u2019s self-described political ideology is shown in Table 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table <\/strong>3<\/strong>: Democratic primary vote, by ideology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Among registered voters in the Democratic primary<\/p>\n\n\n\n Vote choice, including those who lean to a candidate, is shown by ideology in Table 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table <\/strong>4<\/strong>: Democratic primary vote including leaners, by ideology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Among registered voters in the Democratic primary<\/p>\n\n\n\n As for Evers\u2019 endorsement, those who say it makes them more likely to support Crowley nonetheless prefer Barnes with 20%. Hong is second in this group at 19%, while Crowley is third at 13%. Hong has 83% support among those who say the Evers endorsement makes them less likely to support Crowley and 43% among those who say the endorsement makes no difference. The vote choice by how the Evers endorsement affects the vote is shown in Table 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table <\/strong>5<\/strong>: Democratic primary vote, by Evers endorsement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Among registered voters in the Democratic primary<\/p>\n\n\n\n The relationship of the Evers endorsement and vote including those who lean to a candidate is shown in Table 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table <\/strong>6<\/strong>: Democratic primary vote including leaners, by Evers endorsement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Among registered voters in the Democratic primary<\/p>\n\n\n\n About the Marquette Law School Poll<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted July 22-27, 2026, interviewing 407 Wisconsin registered voters who say they are voting, or have voted, in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of +\/-6.6 percentage points. The sample includes 254 respondents who were previously interviewed in the survey of July 8-16, 2026, and 153 new respondents. Interviews were attempted with all Democratic primary respondents from the July 8-16 poll, with a 59% reinterview rate, as well as an additional fresh sample.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 176 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list, and 231 registered voters selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The partisan makeup of the sample of Democratic primary voters is 4% Republican, 36% independent (including those who lean to a party), and 59% Democratic. Wisconsin has open primaries in which any voter can participate.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAge<\/strong><\/td> Vote choice<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Mandela Barnes<\/td> Joel Brennan<\/td> David Crowley<\/td> Francesca Hong<\/td> Kelda Roys<\/td> Haven’t decided<\/td> Sara Rodriguez<\/td><\/tr><\/thead> July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> 18-29<\/td> 6<\/td> 0<\/td> 4<\/td> 66<\/td> 3<\/td> 22<\/td> NA<\/td><\/tr> 30-44<\/td> 9<\/td> 2<\/td> 7<\/td> 51<\/td> 0<\/td> 31<\/td> NA<\/td><\/tr> 45-59<\/td> 21<\/td> 1<\/td> 9<\/td> 37<\/td> 1<\/td> 31<\/td> NA<\/td><\/tr> 60+<\/td> 24<\/td> 3<\/td> 9<\/td> 14<\/td> 5<\/td> 46<\/td> NA<\/td><\/tr> July 8-16, 2026<\/td><\/tr> 18-29<\/td> 14<\/td> 0<\/td> NA<\/td> 43<\/td> 4<\/td> 35<\/td> 4<\/td><\/tr> 30-44<\/td> 12<\/td> 1<\/td> NA<\/td> 37<\/td> 0<\/td> 44<\/td> 6<\/td><\/tr> 45-59<\/td> 17<\/td> 4<\/td> NA<\/td> 20<\/td> 1<\/td> 45<\/td> 13<\/td><\/tr> 60+<\/td> 17<\/td> 1<\/td> NA<\/td> 9<\/td> 1<\/td> 53<\/td> 19<\/td><\/tr> Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Question: In the Democratic primary for Governor, will you vote for…<\/td><\/tr> Question: In the Democratic primary for Governor, will you vote for, and please bear with me as I read the 5 candidates\u2026<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Age<\/strong><\/td> Vote choice including leaners<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Mandela Barnes<\/td> Joel Brennan<\/td> David Crowley<\/td> Francesca Hong<\/td> Kelda Roys<\/td> Haven’t decided<\/td><\/tr><\/thead> July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> 18-29<\/td> 8<\/td> 0<\/td> 4<\/td> 68<\/td> 7<\/td> 13<\/td><\/tr> 30-44<\/td> 14<\/td> 5<\/td> 9<\/td> 61<\/td> 0<\/td> 11<\/td><\/tr> 45-59<\/td> 25<\/td> 5<\/td> 10<\/td> 42<\/td> 3<\/td> 15<\/td><\/tr> 60+<\/td> 31<\/td> 4<\/td> 18<\/td> 25<\/td> 7<\/td> 15<\/td><\/tr> Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Question: In the Democratic primary for Governor, will you vote for…<\/td><\/tr> Question: If you had to choose now, which candidate are you leaning towards?<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Ideology<\/strong><\/td> Vote choice<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Mandela Barnes<\/td> Joel Brennan<\/td> David Crowley<\/td> Francesca Hong<\/td> Kelda Roys<\/td> Haven’t decided<\/td> Sara Rodriguez<\/td><\/tr><\/thead> July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Moderate\/conservative<\/td> 23<\/td> 3<\/td> 9<\/td> 19<\/td> 4<\/td> 42<\/td> NA<\/td><\/tr> Liberal<\/td> 17<\/td> 2<\/td> 9<\/td> 30<\/td> 1<\/td> 40<\/td> NA<\/td><\/tr> Very liberal<\/td> 6<\/td> 0<\/td> 3<\/td> 74<\/td> 0<\/td> 17<\/td> NA<\/td><\/tr> July 8-16, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Moderate\/conservative<\/td> 15<\/td> 3<\/td> NA<\/td> 8<\/td> 1<\/td> 60<\/td> 12<\/td><\/tr> Liberal<\/td> 18<\/td> 0<\/td> NA<\/td> 26<\/td> 0<\/td> 39<\/td> 16<\/td><\/tr> Very liberal<\/td> 10<\/td> 0<\/td> NA<\/td> 58<\/td> 4<\/td> 24<\/td> 3<\/td><\/tr> Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Question: In the Democratic primary for Governor, will you vote for…<\/td><\/tr> Question: In the Democratic primary for Governor, will you vote for, and please bear with me as I read the 5 candidates\u2026<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Ideology<\/strong><\/td> Vote choice including leaners<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Mandela Barnes<\/td> Joel Brennan<\/td> David Crowley<\/td> Francesca Hong<\/td> Kelda Roys<\/td> Haven’t decided<\/td><\/tr><\/thead> July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Moderate\/conservative<\/td> 30<\/td> 7<\/td> 14<\/td> 27<\/td> 6<\/td> 16<\/td><\/tr> Liberal<\/td> 21<\/td> 3<\/td> 12<\/td> 40<\/td> 2<\/td> 22<\/td><\/tr> Very liberal<\/td> 9<\/td> 1<\/td> 5<\/td> 79<\/td> 4<\/td> 3<\/td><\/tr> Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Question: In the Democratic primary for Governor, will you vote for…<\/td><\/tr> Question: If you had to choose now, which candidate are you leaning towards?<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Evers endorsement effect on support for Crowley<\/strong><\/td> Vote choice<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Mandela Barnes<\/td> Joel Brennan<\/td> David Crowley<\/td> Francesca Hong<\/td> Kelda Roys<\/td> Haven’t decided<\/td><\/tr><\/thead> More likely<\/td> 20<\/td> 0<\/td> 13<\/td> 19<\/td> 1<\/td> 46<\/td><\/tr> Less likely<\/td> 6<\/td> 4<\/td> 0<\/td> 83<\/td> 0<\/td> 8<\/td><\/tr> Doesn’t make any difference<\/td> 15<\/td> 2<\/td> 5<\/td> 43<\/td> 4<\/td> 31<\/td><\/tr> Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Question: In the Democratic primary for Governor, will you vote for…<\/td><\/tr> Question: Does Gov. Evers\u2019 endorsement of Crowley make you more likely to support Crowley, less likely or doesn\u2019t it make any difference?<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Evers endorsement effect on support for Crowley<\/strong><\/td> Vote choice including leaners<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Mandela Barnes<\/td> Joel Brennan<\/td> David Crowley<\/td> Francesca Hong<\/td> Kelda Roys<\/td> Haven’t decided<\/td><\/tr><\/thead> More likely<\/td> 28<\/td> 4<\/td> 19<\/td> 28<\/td> 3<\/td> 17<\/td><\/tr> Less likely<\/td> 7<\/td> 4<\/td> 0<\/td> 86<\/td> 0<\/td> 4<\/td><\/tr> Doesn’t make any difference<\/td> 19<\/td> 4<\/td> 7<\/td> 50<\/td> 6<\/td> 13<\/td><\/tr> Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey July 22-27, 2026<\/td><\/tr> Question: In the Democratic primary for Governor, will you vote for…<\/td><\/tr> Question: If you had to choose now, which candidate are you leaning towards?<\/td><\/tr> Question: Does Gov. Evers\u2019 endorsement of Crowley make you more likely to support Crowley, less likely or doesn\u2019t it make any difference?<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n