Home sale trends
While housing prices have grown tremendously, sales trends have moderated during the past two years.
- The volume of home sales is down from the frenzied market of 2021 and 2022, but it is similar to the prepandemic level of sales.
- Compared to before the pandemic, landlords make up a slightly greater share of sellers and buyers. This is because landlords sell properties between each other more frequently than owner-occupiers.
- The number of houses owned by an owner-occupier has continued to increase in 2023 and 2024, albeit at a lower pace than the previous several years.
- The “big 3” private equity firms operating in Milwaukee’s house rental market have all sold homes in the last year, while ceasing new acquisitions.
- Far fewer homes are being sold in package sales than in past years.
| Homes sales recorded in Milwaukee | ||
|---|---|---|
| September | year-to-date | |
| 2018 | 555 | 5,024 |
| 2019 | 570 | 4,960 |
| 2020 | 697 | 4,808 |
| 2021 | 915 | 6,474 |
| 2022 | 643 | 6,463 |
| 2023 | 587 | 4,555 |
| 2024 | 560 | 4,789 |
| Includes non-tax-exempt sales using a warranty/condo deed between unrelated owners. | ||
Landlords own about 29% of houses in Milwaukee, but they are the seller in about 57% of transactions and the buyer in 42%. That is an increase since 2018, when landlords owned closer to 31% of properties but were the sellers in 50% of transactions and the buyers in 38%.
This reflects the greater propensity of landlords to sell their properties, often to each other, in contrast to owner-occupiers who tend to hold their properties for longer.
| Share of home sales involving landlords vs. owner occupiers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in the City of Milwaukee, includes non-tax-exempt sales using a warranty/condo deed between unrelated owners | ||||
| landlord is | owner occupier is | |||
| seller | buyer | seller | buyer | |
| 2018 | 50.4% | 38.2% | 45.0% | 61.6% |
| 2019 | 54.8% | 39.8% | 41.1% | 60.1% |
| 2020 | 52.3% | 36.7% | 45.5% | 63.2% |
| 2021 | 57.0% | 40.4% | 42.0% | 59.5% |
| 2022 | 58.9% | 43.5% | 40.1% | 56.5% |
| 2023 | 58.1% | 42.1% | 40.6% | 57.9% |
| 2024 | 57.2% | 42.0% | 41.6% | 58.0% |
| Source: a custom dataset of transaction records matched to ownership data. | ||||
During the first 9 months of 2024, owner-occupiers bought 76% of houses sold by other owner occupiers, 49% of those sold by Milwaukee landlords, 50% of suburban landlord sales, 36% of sales by landlords from the rest of Wisconsin, and 35% of home sold by landlords outside Wisconsin. These numbers might suggest that the number of owner-occupied homes should be growing quickly, but owner-occupancy suffers significant attrition from owner-occupiers moving out of homes without selling them.
| 2024 home sale flows in the City of Milwaukee | ||||||
| sold by | total1 | sold to | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| owner occupier | Milwaukee-based landlord | suburbs landlord | rest of Wisconsin landlord | outside WI landlord | ||
| owner occupier | 1910 | 76% | 7% | 11% | 2% | 4% |
| Milwaukee-based landlord | 1012 | 49% | 21% | 17% | 2% | 10% |
| suburbs landlord | 932 | 50% | 15% | 22% | 2% | 10% |
| rest of Wisconsin landlord | 200 | 36% | 28% | 9% | 8% | 18% |
| outside WI landlord | 482 | 35% | 19% | 16% | 4% | 27% |
| Includes non-tax-exempt sales using a warranty/condo deed between unrelated owners | ||||||
| 1 Only includes sales for which data was available | ||||||
Still, the number of homes owned by owner-occupiers has continued to grow. Losses by Milwaukee-based landlords lessened in 2023 and 2024, while suburban landlords narrowly increased their net holdings. Out-of-state landlords posted their first net declines in over a decade.
My analysis of property records shows a net increase of 336 more owner-occupiers in 2023 followed by another 338 through about August of 2024.
| Owner occupied houses in the City of Milwaukee | ||||
| includes single family homes, duplexes, triplexes, and condos | ||||
| owner occupied | share owner occupied | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| total | change | total | change | |
| 2006 | 106,348 | — | 78.9% | — |
| 2007 | 106,021 | −327 | 78.1% | −0.8% |
| 2008 | 104,874 | −1,147 | 76.9% | −1.2% |
| 2009 | 103,208 | −1,666 | 75.5% | −1.4% |
| 2010 | 101,580 | −1,628 | 74.2% | −1.2% |
| 2011 | 99,732 | −1,848 | 73.1% | −1.1% |
| 2012 | 97,343 | −2,389 | 71.5% | −1.6% |
| 2013 | 95,648 | −1,695 | 70.5% | −1.0% |
| 2014 | 94,685 | −963 | 70.0% | −0.5% |
| 2015 | 93,390 | −1,295 | 69.1% | −0.9% |
| 2016 | 92,467 | −923 | 68.5% | −0.6% |
| 2017 | 92,375 | −92 | 68.6% | 0.0% |
| 2018 | 92,137 | −238 | 68.4% | −0.2% |
| 2019 | 92,703 | 566 | 68.7% | 0.3% |
| 2020 | 93,417 | 714 | 69.2% | 0.5% |
| 2021 | 94,222 | 805 | 69.8% | 0.7% |
| 2022 | 95,121 | 899 | 70.4% | 0.6% |
| 2023 | 95,457 | 336 | 70.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 2024 | 95,795 | 338 | 70.9% | 0.2% |
| Source: analysis of tax assessor records | ||||
| 1 2024 data is as of August. Other years are as of December. | ||||
Both VineBrook Homes, Highgrove Holdings, and SFR3 sold houses in 2024. My analysis of transaction records shows no acquisitions by any of them. VineBrook sold the most (66), followed by SFR3 (20). Highgrove parted with 8 homes, but one of those losses came via tax foreclosure.
| Sales by Vinebrook, Highgrove, and SFR3 in Milwaukee during 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| parcels | foreclosures | to_owner_occupier | tot_value | |
| Vinebrook Homes | 66 | 0 | 8 | $6,828,126 |
| Highgrove Holdings | 8 | 1 | 0 | $589,891 |
| SFR3 | 20 | 0 | 15 | $3,310,550 |
None of those three companies sold any houses in a package (multi-property) sale. The number of such sales and the homes sold in them fell in 2023 and 2024.
| Residential properties sold in multi-property sales | ||
| in the City of Milwaukee | ||
| sales | parcels | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 104 | 344 |
| 2018 | 121 | 495 |
| 2019 | 125 | 481 |
| 2020 | 148 | 441 |
| 2021 | 183 | 633 |
| 2022 | 213 | 799 |
| 2023 | 110 | 254 |
| 1 2024 | 75 | 258 |
| I restrict this analysis to conveyances meeting the following criteria: (1) there is no stated relationship between the grantor and grantee, (2) the grantor’s address is different than the grantee’s, and (3) the conveyance is either arm’s length or not arm’s length but still subject to a transfer fee. | ||
| 1 Includes conveyances reported through September 2024. | ||