Have to admit that I was a little taken aback when I saw this post (and chart) from Nate Silver at 538.com:

Gallup recently found sympathy toward labor unions is at an all-time low, at 48 percent. but then again, unemployment is close to its post-WWII highs. Gallup did not happen to ask this question in late 1982 or early 1983, when unemployment exceeded 10 percent. They did ask in August 1981, when unemployment was up to 7.4 percent and rising rapidly, and at that point support for labor was at 55 percent, which was the lowest figure it had achieved before this year’s survey.

The regression line finds that, for every point’s worth of increase in the unemployment rate, approval of labor unions goes down by 2.6 points. Alternatively, we can add a time trend to the regression model, to account for the fact that participation in labor unions has been declining over time. This softens the relationship slightly, but still implies a decrease in approval of 2.1 points for unions for every point increase in unemployment. Both relationships are highly statistically significant.

So why does support for labor unions go down when unemployment rates rise? Here are some possibility, but would love to hear other thoughts from the reader:

1. The Blame Game:  “It is because of unions and their unreasonable demands for higher wages and benefits that American companies are losing jobs to global competition.”

2. We Need More Unions: “The decrease is union support has actually caused higher unemployment rates, not vice versa. If there were more supports for union, we would have a large middle class, greater consumer spending, and more jobs for everyone.”

3. Need More Safety Nets: “Unions have shot themselves in the foot. Rather than working for saftey net legislation like their European peers, unemployment means that those unemployed blame the unions for not helping them negotiate this difficult economic climate.”

4. Resentment of Unions: “When unemployment is high, the non-unionized working class resent unions for giving their members greater job security while they’re left out in the cold.”

There are many more explanations/theories obviously, so please provide your own in the comments.

Steve Greenhouse over at the New York Times gives us the scoop about an interesting new workplace study by Ruth Milkman, among others:

Low-wage workers are routinely denied proper overtime pay and are often paid less than the minimum wage, according to a new study based on a survey of workers in New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.

The study, the most comprehensive examination of wage-law violations in a decade, also found that 68 percent of the workers interviewed had experienced at least one pay-related violation in the previous work week.

“We were all surprised by the high prevalence rate,” said Ruth Milkman, one of the study’s authors and a sociology professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the City University of New York. The study, to be released on Wednesday, was financed by the Ford, Joyce, Haynes and Russell Sage Foundations.

In surveying 4,387 workers in various low-wage industries, including apparel manufacturing, child care and discount retailing, the researchers found that the typical worker had lost $51 the previous week through wage violations, out of average weekly earnings of $339. That translates into a 15 percent loss in pay.

Part of the study’s findings were that employers of low-income workers were successful in intimidating them not to bring workplace claims, including worker compensation claims.

I actually think this study resonates with the current fight between unions and companies over the Employee Free Choice Act and the need for voluntary recognition of unions versus the need to keep secret ballot elections.

Really what this argument is all about is whether you are more concerned about union intimidation or management intimidation in the workplace.  I think, at least in the low income world, this study is further proof that employer intimidation is much more prevalent and impactful.  As someone recently put it to me: there is just something about an employer having the ultimate power of hiring and firing workers.