Public Opinion and U.S. Supreme Court cases
Cases of the Oct. 2024 term
The Marquette Law School poll has conducted multiple national polls of opinion on cases before the U.S. Supreme Court in the October 2024 term. This post shows this results for cases that have been decided or are still pending. Additional polling will be conducted in July following the end of the term.
Links to SCOTUSBlog page for each case provide more details of the cases.
Classified documents
A federal judge in Florida has dismissed the case charging Trump with illegally retaining classified documents and obstructing government efforts to recover the documents. The judge ruled that the appointment of the special counsel violated the Constitution. Do you favor or oppose this ruling?
| Poll dates | Favor | Oppose | Don’t know |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 37 | 43 | 19 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Favor | Oppose | Don’t know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 7/24-8/1/24 | 66 | 12 | 21 |
| Independent | 7/24-8/1/24 | 25 | 30 | 45 |
| Democrat | 7/24-8/1/24 | 12 | 76 | 12 |
TikTok Ban
In January the Supreme Court upheld a law requiring the social media app TikTok, which is owned by a Chinese company, to be sold or banned in the U.S. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
| Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|
| 1/27-2/6/25 | 62 | 38 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1/27-2/6/25 | 73 | 27 |
| Independent | 1/27-2/6/25 | 53 | 47 |
| Democrat | 1/27-2/6/25 | 54 | 46 |
Halt Trump criminal sentencing
In January the Supreme Court rejected Donald Trump’s request to halt his criminal sentencing in New York where he was convicted in May on 34 felony counts, allowing sentencing to proceed. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
| Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|
| 1/27-2/6/25 | 65 | 35 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1/27-2/6/25 | 43 | 57 |
| Independent | 1/27-2/6/25 | 70 | 30 |
| Democrat | 1/27-2/6/25 | 87 | 12 |
Texas porn access
Free Speech Coalition, Inc. v. Paxton
In January the Supreme Court heard arguments concerning a Texas law meant to prevent minors from accessing sexual materials on the internet, through a requirement that adults prove they are 18 or over by submitting government-issued IDs in order to access sexually oriented websites. Do you think the court should uphold this law or strike it down for infringing on the rights of adults?
| Poll dates | Uphold the law | Strike it down |
|---|---|---|
| 1/27-2/6/25 | 69 | 31 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Uphold the law | Strike it down |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1/27-2/6/25 | 78 | 22 |
| Independent | 1/27-2/6/25 | 74 | 26 |
| Democrat | 1/27-2/6/25 | 57 | 43 |
Freeze foreign aid payments
Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition
[In March, the Supreme Court rejected President Trump’s request to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid, sending the case back to a lower court for further proceedings.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
| Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|
| 3/17-27/25 | 58 | 42 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 3/17-27/25 | 39 | 61 |
| Independent | 3/17-27/25 | 60 | 40 |
| Democrat | 3/17-27/25 | 76 | 24 |
EPA regulation limits
City and County of San Francisco v. Environmental Protection Agency
[In March, the Supreme Court ruled that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was entitled to impose specific requirements on permit holders to prevent pollution but not to make the permit holders responsible simply because water quality has fallen below the agency’s standards.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
| Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|
| 3/17-27/25 | 48 | 52 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 3/17-27/25 | 59 | 41 |
| Independent | 3/17-27/25 | 45 | 55 |
| Democrat | 3/17-27/25 | 38 | 62 |
Religious charter school
Oklahoma Statewide Charter School Board v. Drummond
[In April, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in a case asking whether a state that generally funds charter schools as alternatives to traditional public schools may refuse to fund a charter school simply because it is explicitly religious.] How do you think the Court should rule?
| Poll dates | The state may refuse to fund the religious charter school | The state is required to fund a religious charter school |
|---|---|---|
| 3/17-27/25 | 57 | 43 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | The state may refuse to fund the religious charter school | The state is required to fund a religious charter school |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 3/17-27/25 | 45 | 55 |
| Independent | 3/17-27/25 | 60 | 40 |
| Democrat | 3/17-27/25 | 68 | 32 |
Ban transition treatment for minors
[In December, the Supreme Court heard arguments challenging a Tennessee law that prohibits medical providers from prescribing puberty-delaying medication or performing gender transition surgery for youth under 18.] How do you think the Court should rule?
| Poll dates | Uphold the Tennessee law | Overturn the law |
|---|---|---|
| 3/17-27/25 | 72 | 27 |
| 5/5-15/25 | 70 | 30 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Uphold the Tennessee law | Overturn the law |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 3/17-27/25 | 90 | 10 |
| Republican | 5/5-15/25 | 92 | 8 |
| Independent | 3/17-27/25 | 79 | 21 |
| Independent | 5/5-15/25 | 73 | 27 |
| Democrat | 3/17-27/25 | 52 | 48 |
| Democrat | 5/5-15/25 | 44 | 56 |
Trump administration must facilitate return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia
In April, the Supreme Court ruled that federal law requires the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a man erroneously deported to El Salvador. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
| Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|
| 5/5-15/25 | 67 | 33 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 5/5-15/25 | 41 | 59 |
| Independent | 5/5-15/25 | 65 | 34 |
| Democrat | 5/5-15/25 | 94 | 6 |
Must provide due process before deportation
In April, the Supreme Court said that those the administration is seeking to deport under the Alien Enemies Act must receive notice that they are subject to deportation within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to actually seek court review before such deportation occurs. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
| Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|
| 5/5-15/25 | 65 | 35 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Favor | Oppose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 5/5-15/25 | 43 | 57 |
| Independent | 5/5-15/25 | 61 | 39 |
| Democrat | 5/5-15/25 | 90 | 10 |
Parents can opt kids out of LGBTQ readings
In April, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a case asking whether parents of elementary school students should be able to opt their children out of reading classes concerning stories about LGBTQ+ characters, if those stories conflict with the families’ religious beliefs. How do you think the Court should rule?
| Poll dates | Parents should be able to opt out | The schools should set the curriculum for all |
|---|---|---|
| 5/5-15/25 | 70 | 30 |
| Party ID | Poll dates | Parents should be able to opt out | The schools should set the curriculum for all |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 5/5-15/25 | 91 | 9 |
| Independent | 5/5-15/25 | 69 | 31 |
| Democrat | 5/5-15/25 | 48 | 52 |
Cases not yet polled
Reverse Discrimination
Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services
Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit’s “background circumstances” rule — which requires members of a majority group to satisfy a heightened evidentiary standard to prevail on a Title VII discrimination claim — cannot be squared with either the text of Title VII or the Supreme Court’s precedents.
Judgment: Vacated and remanded, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Jackson on June 5, 2025. Justice Thomas filed a concurring opinion, in which Justice Gorsuch joined.
Smith & Wesson v Mexico
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos
Holding: Because Mexico’s complaint does not plausibly allege that the defendant gun manufacturers aided and abetted gun dealers’ unlawful sales of firearms to Mexican traffickers, the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act bars the lawsuit.
Judgment: Reversed, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Kagan on June 5, 2025. Justices Thomas and Jackson filed concurring opinions.
Police excessive use of force
Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit’s moment-of-threat rule — a framework for evaluating police shootings which requires a court to look only to the circumstances existing at the precise time an officer perceived the threat inducing him to shoot — improperly narrows the Fourth Amendment analysis of police use of force.
Judgment: Vacated and Remanded , 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Kagan on May 15, 2025. Justice Kavanaugh filed a concurring opinion, in which Justices Thomas, Alito, and Barrett joined.
Regulation of Flavored Vapes
Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments
Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit erred in setting aside as arbitrary and capricious the FDA’s orders denying respondents’ applications for authorization to market new e-cigarette products pursuant to The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009; the 5th Circuit also relied on an incorrect standard to reject the FDA’s claim of harmless error regarding the agency’s failure to consider marketing plans submitted by respondents.
Judgment: Vacated and remanded, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Alito on April 2, 2025. Justice Sotomayor filed a concurring opinion.
Ghost guns
Emergency application for stay is granted on Aug. 8, 2023. Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh would deny the application for stay.
Issue: Whether the Supreme Court should stay the judgment of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas baring the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives from enforcing a 2022 rule regulating “ghost guns” as firearms.
Birthright Citizenship or Universal Injunction
Emergency application for partial stay
Issue: Whether the Supreme Court should stay the district courts’ nationwide preliminary injunctions on the Trump administration’s Jan. 20 executive order ending birthright citizenship except as to the individual plaintiffs and identified members of the organizational plaintiffs or states.
Race and Congressional districting
Issue: (1) Whether the majority of the three-judge district court in this case erred in finding that race predominated in the Louisiana legislature”s enactment of S.B. 8; (2) whether the majority erred in finding that S.B. 8 fails strict scrutiny; (3) whether the majority erred in subjecting S.B. 8 to the preconditions specified in Thornburg v. Gingles; and (4) whether this action is non-justiciable.