Cases of the Oct. 2024 term

The Marquette Law School poll has conducted multiple national polls of opinion on cases before the U.S. Supreme Court in the October 2024 term. This post shows this results for cases that have been decided or are still pending. Additional polling will be conducted in July following the end of the term.

Links to SCOTUSBlog page for each case provide more details of the cases.

Classified documents

A federal judge in Florida has dismissed the case charging Trump with illegally retaining classified documents and obstructing government efforts to recover the documents. The judge ruled that the appointment of the special counsel violated the Constitution. Do you favor or oppose this ruling?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
7/24-8/1/24	37	43	19

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Republican	7/24-8/1/24	66	12	21
Independent	7/24-8/1/24	25	30	45
Democrat	7/24-8/1/24	12	76	12

TikTok Ban

TikTok v. Garland

In January the Supreme Court upheld a law requiring the social media app TikTok, which is owned by a Chinese company, to be sold or banned in the U.S. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
1/27-2/6/25	62	38

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	1/27-2/6/25	73	27
Independent	1/27-2/6/25	53	47
Democrat	1/27-2/6/25	54	46

Halt Trump criminal sentencing

Trump v. New York

In January the Supreme Court rejected Donald Trump’s request to halt his criminal sentencing in New York where he was convicted in May on 34 felony counts, allowing sentencing to proceed. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
1/27-2/6/25	65	35

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	1/27-2/6/25	43	57
Independent	1/27-2/6/25	70	30
Democrat	1/27-2/6/25	87	12

Texas porn access

Free Speech Coalition, Inc. v. Paxton

In January the Supreme Court heard arguments concerning a Texas law meant to prevent minors from accessing sexual materials on the internet, through a requirement that adults prove they are 18 or over by submitting government-issued IDs in order to access sexually oriented websites. Do you think the court should uphold this law or strike it down for infringing on the rights of adults?

Poll dates	Uphold the law	Strike it down
1/27-2/6/25	69	31

Party ID	Poll dates	Uphold the law	Strike it down
Republican	1/27-2/6/25	78	22
Independent	1/27-2/6/25	74	26
Democrat	1/27-2/6/25	57	43

Freeze foreign aid payments

Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition

[In March, the Supreme Court rejected President Trump’s request to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid, sending the case back to a lower court for further proceedings.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
3/17-27/25	58	42

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	3/17-27/25	39	61
Independent	3/17-27/25	60	40
Democrat	3/17-27/25	76	24

EPA regulation limits

City and County of San Francisco v. Environmental Protection Agency

[In March, the Supreme Court ruled that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was entitled to impose specific requirements on permit holders to prevent pollution but not to make the permit holders responsible simply because water quality has fallen below the agency’s standards.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
3/17-27/25	48	52

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	3/17-27/25	59	41
Independent	3/17-27/25	45	55
Democrat	3/17-27/25	38	62

Religious charter school

Oklahoma Statewide Charter School Board v. Drummond

[In April, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in a case asking whether a state that generally funds charter schools as alternatives to traditional public schools may refuse to fund a charter school simply because it is explicitly religious.] How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll dates	The state may refuse to fund the religious charter school	The state is required to fund a religious charter school
3/17-27/25	57	43

Party ID	Poll dates	The state may refuse to fund the religious charter school	The state is required to fund a religious charter school
Republican	3/17-27/25	45	55
Independent	3/17-27/25	60	40
Democrat	3/17-27/25	68	32

Ban transition treatment for minors

United States v. Skrmetti

[In December, the Supreme Court heard arguments challenging a Tennessee law that prohibits medical providers from prescribing puberty-delaying medication or performing gender transition surgery for youth under 18.] How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll dates	Uphold the Tennessee law	Overturn the law
3/17-27/25	72	27
5/5-15/25	70	30

Party ID	Poll dates	Uphold the Tennessee law	Overturn the law
Republican	3/17-27/25	90	10
Republican	5/5-15/25	92	8
Independent	3/17-27/25	79	21
Independent	5/5-15/25	73	27
Democrat	3/17-27/25	52	48
Democrat	5/5-15/25	44	56

Trump administration must facilitate return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia

Noem v. Abrego Garcia

In April, the Supreme Court ruled that federal law requires the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a man erroneously deported to El Salvador. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/5-15/25	67	33

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	5/5-15/25	41	59
Independent	5/5-15/25	65	34
Democrat	5/5-15/25	94	6

Must provide due process before deportation

Trump v. J.G.G.

In April, the Supreme Court said that those the administration is seeking to deport under the Alien Enemies Act must receive notice that they are subject to deportation within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to actually seek court review before such deportation occurs. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/5-15/25	65	35

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	5/5-15/25	43	57
Independent	5/5-15/25	61	39
Democrat	5/5-15/25	90	10

Parents can opt kids out of LGBTQ readings

Mahmoud v. Taylor

In April, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a case asking whether parents of elementary school students should be able to opt their children out of reading classes concerning stories about LGBTQ+ characters, if those stories conflict with the families’ religious beliefs. How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll dates	Parents should be able to opt out	The schools should set the curriculum for all
5/5-15/25	70	30

Party ID	Poll dates	Parents should be able to opt out	The schools should set the curriculum for all
Republican	5/5-15/25	91	9
Independent	5/5-15/25	69	31
Democrat	5/5-15/25	48	52

Cases not yet polled

Reverse Discrimination

Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit’s “background circumstances” rule — which requires members of a majority group to satisfy a heightened evidentiary standard to prevail on a Title VII discrimination claim — cannot be squared with either the text of Title VII or the Supreme Court’s precedents.

Judgment: Vacated and remanded, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Jackson on June 5, 2025. Justice Thomas filed a concurring opinion, in which Justice Gorsuch joined.

Smith & Wesson v Mexico

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos

Holding: Because Mexico’s complaint does not plausibly allege that the defendant gun manufacturers aided and abetted gun dealers’ unlawful sales of firearms to Mexican traffickers, the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act bars the lawsuit.

Judgment: Reversed, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Kagan on June 5, 2025. Justices Thomas and Jackson filed concurring opinions.

Police excessive use of force

Barnes v. Felix

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit’s moment-of-threat rule — a framework for evaluating police shootings which requires a court to look only to the circumstances existing at the precise time an officer perceived the threat inducing him to shoot — improperly narrows the Fourth Amendment analysis of police use of force.

Judgment: Vacated and Remanded , 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Kagan on May 15, 2025. Justice Kavanaugh filed a concurring opinion, in which Justices Thomas, Alito, and Barrett joined.

Regulation of Flavored Vapes

Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit erred in setting aside as arbitrary and capricious the FDA’s orders denying respondents’ applications for authorization to market new e-cigarette products pursuant to The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009; the 5th Circuit also relied on an incorrect standard to reject the FDA’s claim of harmless error regarding the agency’s failure to consider marketing plans submitted by respondents.

Judgment: Vacated and remanded, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Alito on April 2, 2025. Justice Sotomayor filed a concurring opinion.

Ghost guns

Garland v. VanDerStok

Emergency application for stay is granted on Aug. 8, 2023. Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh would deny the application for stay.

Issue: Whether the Supreme Court should stay the judgment of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas baring the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives from enforcing a 2022 rule regulating “ghost guns” as firearms.

Birthright Citizenship or Universal Injunction

Trump v. CASA

Emergency application for partial stay

Issue: Whether the Supreme Court should stay the district courts’ nationwide preliminary injunctions on the Trump administration’s Jan. 20 executive order ending birthright citizenship except as to the individual plaintiffs and identified members of the organizational plaintiffs or states.

Race and Congressional districting

Louisiana v. Callais

Issue: (1) Whether the majority of the three-judge district court in this case erred in finding that race predominated in the Louisiana legislature”s enactment of S.B. 8; (2) whether the majority erred in finding that S.B. 8 fails strict scrutiny; (3) whether the majority erred in subjecting S.B. 8 to the preconditions specified in Thornburg v. Gingles; and (4) whether this action is non-justiciable.