- Marquette Law School Poll finds very close presidential, U.S. Senate races in Wisconsinby Charles Franklin
Enthusiasm gap in presidential race, favoring Trump; enthusiasm overall for voting considerably lower than four years ago
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 51% of registered voters and Democratic President Joe Biden by 49%. Among likely voters also, Trump is the choice of 51% and Biden of 49%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% and Republican challenger Eric Hovde by 47% among registered voters. Among likely voters, the race is a tie, with 50% for both Baldwin and Hovde. These results include initially undecided voters who are then asked which candidate they would pick if they had to decide. The initial question, including undecided voters, produces slightly different results, with Baldwin at 44%, Hovde at 37%, and undecided at 18% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin was favored by 45%, Hovde by 41%, and 15% were initially undecided.
In January, Trump received 49% and Biden 49% among registered voters, and Trump received 50% and Biden 49% among likely voters. Those results included initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose between Biden and Trump. The recent trend in vote choice is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump
Poll dates Vote choice Joe Biden Donald Trump Haven’t decided/Neither Registered voters 4/3-10/24 49 51 0 1/24-31/24 49 49 2 10/26-11/2/23 50 48 1 Likely voters 4/3-10/24 49 51 0 1/24-31/24 49 50 1 10/26-11/2/23 50 48 1 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? The survey was conducted April 3-10, 2024, interviewing 814 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. Of the full sample, 736 are considered likely voters, and the margin of error for that group is +/-5 percentage points.
The initial question on the presidential race includes the option for “haven’t decided.” Among registered voters, the undecided have declined from 12% in November to 8% in April. The trend in vote choice, including undecided, is shown in Table 2. A higher proportion of registered voters remain undecided than among likely voters. In each case, the undecided group remains larger than the margin between the candidates.
Table 2: Vote for Biden or Trump, including initially undecided
Poll dates Vote choice Joe Biden Donald Trump Haven’t decided Registered voters 4/3-10/24 44 47 8 1/24-31/24 44 44 12 10/26-11/2/23 45 42 12 Likely voters 4/3-10/24 45 48 6 1/24-31/24 44 46 10 10/26-11/2/23 47 45 8 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? When third-party candidates are included (and the undecided are asked to pick), Trump receives 41% and Biden 40% among registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 13%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein is the choice of 3%, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2%.
Among likely voters in the five-way race, Trump is the choice of 42%, Biden 41%, Kennedy 12%, Stein 3%, and West 1%. The trend is shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Vote including third party candidates
Poll dates Vote choice Biden Trump Kennedy, Jr. Stein West Don’t know Registered voters 4/3-10/24 40 41 13 3 2 1 1/24-31/24 37 40 16 4 2 1 Likely voters 4/3-10/24 41 42 12 3 1 1 1/24-31/24 39 41 13 4 2 1 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? Presidential vote by party identification
Table 4 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Among Democrats, 97% support Biden with 3% crossing over to Trump. Among Republicans, 91% say they will vote for Trump with 9% crossing over to Biden. Independents lean substantially to Trump in this month’s survey, with 59% for Trump and 41% voting for Biden. Partisan loyalty is at its highest level since November for both parties in the April poll.
Independents have varied in which candidate they support in recent polling, as seen in Table 5. The variability in independent vote is due to both lack of partisan attachment and to the small sample size among independents, who make up 12% of registered voters in this survey.
Table 4: Vote for Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
Party ID Vote choice Joe Biden Donald Trump Haven’t decided/Neither 4/3-10/24 Republican 9 91 0 Independent 41 59 0 Democrat 97 3 0 1/24-31/24 Republican 10 90 0 Independent 49 42 8 Democrat 91 9 0 10/26-11/2/23 Republican 10 88 1 Independent 47 47 4 Democrat 94 6 0 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? In the five-way ballot test, Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans than from Democrats and an especially large share from independents. Stein and West take more votes from Democrats than from Republicans. Independents are much more likely to support one of the third-party candidates than are either Democrats or Republicans. These results are shown in Table 6.
Table 5: Five-way ballot, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Vote choice Biden Trump Kennedy, Jr. Stein West Don’t know 4/3-10/24 Republican 4 79 13 3 0 1 Independent 23 32 32 5 4 5 Democrat 85 1 8 4 2 0 1/24-31/24 Republican 5 76 16 1 1 0 Independent 33 27 28 3 4 2 Democrat 73 5 12 8 2 1 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or Green Party’s Jill Stein? Senate vote by party identification
Among Democratic registered voters, Baldwin receives the support of 94% and Hovde wins 6%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 85%, while Baldwin takes 13%. Independents substantially favor Baldwin by 61% to Hovde’s 37%.
With likely voters, partisan loyalty is slightly higher for both parties, but independents split almost evenly, 51% for Baldwin and 49% for Hovde.
Table 6: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde
Among registered voters
Party ID Vote choice Poll dates Tammy Baldwin Eric Hovde Haven’t decided Registered voters Republican 4/3-10/24 13 85 2 Independent 4/3-10/24 61 37 2 Democrat 4/3-10/24 94 6 0 Likely voters Republican 4/3-10/24 11 87 2 Independent 4/3-10/24 51 49 1 Democrat 4/3-10/24 95 5 0 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between Eric Hovde, the Republican, and Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat, would you vote for Eric Hovde or for Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you decided? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Hovde or for Baldwin? Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting
Registered voters are less enthusiastic about voting than they were in March 2020, as shown in Table 7. In the current survey, 47% say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in November, compared to 67% in late March 2020. Enthusiasm has fluctuated over the most recent three polls, with a small increase in “not at all enthusiastic,” rising from 6% in November to 12% in April.
Table 7: Enthusiasm to vote in November election
Among registered voters
Poll dates Enthusiasm Very Somewhat Not too Not at all 4/3-10/24 47 22 18 12 1/24-31/24 49 25 17 9 10/26-11/2/23 46 28 19 6 3/24-29/20 67 21 7 5 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? Those who are more enthusiastic substantially prefer Trump to Biden, while those less enthusiastic prefer Biden to Trump, as shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm
Among registered voters
Enthusiasm Vote choice 2024 Joe Biden Donald Trump Haven’t decided/Neither Very enthusiastic 41 59 0 Somewhat enthusiastic 45 55 0 Not too enthusiastic 64 36 0 Not at all enthusiastic 62 37 1 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? Favorability of presidential candidates
Table 9 shows the trend in favorability to presidential candidates among all registered voters. All the candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably, and the independent or third-party candidates are much less well known than Biden or Trump.
Biden’s net favorability has been increasingly negative, while Trump’s is less net negative than in November. Biden is now more net negative than Trump, reversing the order of November.
Table 9: Favorability to presidential candidates
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough Joe Biden 4/3-10/24 -19 40 59 1 1/24-31/24 -17 41 58 1 10/26-11/2/23 -14 42 56 2 Donald Trump 4/3-10/24 -13 43 56 1 1/24-31/24 -18 40 58 1 10/26-11/2/23 -24 37 61 2 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 4/3-10/24 -15 30 45 25 1/24-31/24 2 35 33 32 10/26-11/2/23 -8 31 39 30 Cornel West 4/3-10/24 -8 7 15 75 1/24-31/24 -12 7 19 73 10/26-11/2/23 -14 6 20 69 Jill Stein 4/3-10/24 -13 8 21 69 1/24-31/24 -14 10 24 66 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? A significant share of voters, 17%, see both Biden and Trump unfavorably, a number that has held quite steady. Their combined favorability trend is shown in Table 10.
Table 10: Combined favorability to Biden and Trump
Among registered voters
Poll dates Combined Favorability Biden fav, Trump fav Biden fav, Trump unfav Biden unfav, Trump fav Biden unfav, Trump unfav DK Biden or Trump 4/3-10/24 2 38 41 17 2 1/24-31/24 2 40 38 18 2 10/26-11/2/23 1 41 36 18 4 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? Baldwin’s net favorability has improved since January, rising to +5 from -3. Hovde’s net favorability has declined slightly, from -2 to -5. Both candidates are better known in April than they were last June. The percent saying they haven’t heard enough about Baldwin has decreased from 22% in June to 11% in April. Hovde is much less well known but has seen dramatically improved public awareness of him, going from 85% who didn’t know enough about him in June to 56% in April. These trends are shown in Table 11.
Table 11: Favorability to Senate candidates
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough Tammy Baldwin 4/3-10/24 5 47 42 11 1/24-31/24 -3 42 45 13 10/26-11/2/23 -2 41 43 15 6/8-13/23 3 40 37 22 Eric Hovde 4/3-10/24 -5 19 24 56 1/24-31/24 -2 7 9 82 6/8-13/23 -4 4 8 85 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? Coincidentally, in 2012 both Baldwin and Hovde were non-incumbent candidates in their respective party’s Senate primaries, allowing a comparison of current results to their first efforts in statewide campaigns.
Baldwin, a member of Congress in 2012, was better known than Hovde throughout the pre-primary season, though over 30% said they did not know enough about her up to the date of the August primary. After the primary Baldwin became better known, with those not knowing enough to give an opinion about her falling to 15% in the final poll before the November election. Her net favorability was generally in the negative single digits. Baldwin was unopposed in the 2024 Democratic primary.
Hovde was somewhat less well known through most of the 2012 pre-primary campaign than he is in this year’s April poll, with more than 60% then saying they didn’t know enough to have an opinion of him. This declined to 49% in the final 2012 pre-primary poll. His net favorability fluctuated in the positive single digits, but fell to -4 in the final pre-primary poll. Hovde faced a four-person Republican primary, losing to former Gov. Tommy Thompson, 34% to 31%.
These trends are shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Favorability to Senate candidates in 2012
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough Tammy Baldwin 10/25-28/12 -8 36 44 15 10/11-14/12 -16 31 47 18 9/27-30/12 -2 37 39 20 9/13-16/12 5 36 31 28 8/16-19/12 -5 32 37 27 8/2-5/12 -5 30 35 32 7/5-8/12 -5 26 31 38 6/13-16/12 -3 27 30 39 5/23-26/12 0 26 26 39 3/22-25/12 -6 20 26 46 2/16-19/12 -6 21 27 49 1/19-22/12 2 23 21 50 Eric Hovde 8/2-5/12 -4 21 25 49 7/5-8/12 7 19 12 61 6/13-16/12 1 14 13 62 5/23-26/12 2 15 13 61 3/22-25/12 -3 6 9 69 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, Jan.-Oct. 2012 Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? Issues in the campaign
Table 13 shows which presidential candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy, and holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Biden has an advantage in perceptions on Medicare and Social Security, abortion policy, and health care.
A substantial percentage, between 15%-26%, say on each issue that both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing an opportunity for change in these perceptions.
Table 13: Which candidate would do a better job on issues
Among registered voters
Issue Who better Biden Trump Both about the same Neither good Immigration and border security 28 53 8 11 Israel-Hamas war 26 46 8 18 The economy 34 52 9 6 Foreign relations 41 44 5 10 Medicare and Social Security 45 37 12 6 Abortion policy 46 37 7 10 Health care 45 35 12 8 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue? Respondents were asked which of seven issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration, abortion policy, and Medicare and Social Security. The other issues remain in single digits, as shown in Table 14.
Table 14: Most important issues
Among registered voters
Response Percent The economy 33 Immigration and border security 21 Abortion policy 13 Medicare and Social Security 11 Foreign relations 6 Health care 5 The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza 2 Don’t know 8 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 15. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy and immigration as their two top issues, with Medicare and Social Security as their third highest concern. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, closely followed by the economy and Medicare and Social Security.
Table 15: Most important issues by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Issue The economy Immigration and border security Health care Foreign relations Abortion policy Medicare & Social Security The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza Don’t know Republican 43 37 1 4 5 3 1 6 Independent 31 23 8 9 5 14 0 10 Democrat 22 1 9 8 24 19 4 11 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? Immigration
Views of immigration and the policy that should be pursued concerning people who are in the country illegally vary with how the question is framed. The question that has been asked since 2012 is framed in terms of undocumented people currently working in the U.S.
Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.?
- They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship
- They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship
- They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.
Just under half say undocumented workers should be allowed to stay and eventually apply for citizenship, while nearly a third say they should be required to leave the country and about a sixth say they should stay only as guest workers.
The option to stay and eventually apply for citizenship for undocumented immigrants is favored by 49% in the current poll, down from 67% in February 2020 and 64% in April 2022.
There has been an increase in the percentage saying that these immigrants should be required to leave the U.S., which is 30% in the April poll. That is up from 13% in Feb. 2020 and 16% in April 2022. This is the highest support for requiring undocumented residents to leave the country in the 22 polls that have asked this question. The full trend is shown in Table 16.
Table 16: Policy toward undocumented immigrants working in the U.S.
Among registered voters
Poll dates Policy options Stay and apply for citizenship Stay as temporary guest workers Required to leave jobs and U.S. Don’t know 4/3-10/24 49 16 30 5 4/19-24/22 64 16 16 4 2/19-23/20 67 15 13 3 10/24-28/18 65 15 15 3 9/12-16/18 68 15 14 3 2/25-3/1/18 71 14 9 4 3/13-16/17 66 17 14 2 9/15-18/16 62 19 16 2 8/25-28/16 62 19 15 3 8/4-7/16 60 19 17 3 6/9-12/16 60 18 17 4 3/24-28/16 60 22 16 2 1/21-24/16 57 17 21 4 8/13-16/15 49 25 23 3 10/23-26/14 52 20 24 3 10/21-24/13 61 20 16 2 5/6-9/13 58 19 20 2 3/11-13/13 57 17 21 4 10/25-28/12 53 19 22 5 10/11-14/12 52 21 21 4 9/27-30/12 52 19 22 6 9/13-16/12 51 23 20 4 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S. An alternative framing of the issue with no mention of working or options for staying in the U.S., asked later in the survey, is worded as:
“Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?”
With this wording, a majority, 56%, favor deportations, while 39% are opposed and 5% say they don’t know.
Those who favor an eventual-citizenship path, as well as those who favor deportation, when worker status is mentioned in the first question, hold those opinions in the second framing of the question. Those who favor allowing undocumented workers to stay but only as guest workers are substantially in favor of deportation when the worker status in not mentioned.
The relationship between the two questions is shown in Table 17. Of those saying stay and apply for citizenship, 68% oppose deportation of those in the U.S. illegally on the second question. Of those who favor guest worker status, 73% say they favor deportation on the second question. Those who favored requiring undocumented workers to leave almost all, 94%, favor deportation of immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
Table 17: Relationship between policy framings on immigration
Among registered voters
Undocumented workers Deport those illegally in U.S. Favor Oppose Don’t know Stay and apply for citizenship 25 68 6 Stay as temporary guest workers 73 26 0 Required to leave jobs and U.S. 94 4 2 Don’t know 73 8 19 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? 1. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship 2. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship 3. They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S. Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries? Abortion
A majority of the public continues to oppose the Dobbs decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion recognized in Roe v. Wade, with 62% opposed and 37% in favor of the decision. Opinion has been generally stable since August 2022, as shown in Table 18.
Table 18: Favor or oppose the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favor or oppose Favor Oppose DK/Ref 4/3-10/24 37 62 1 1/24-31/24 34 66 0 10/26-11/2/23 35 57 8 6/8-13/23 31 64 4 10/24-11/1/22 37 55 8 10/3-9/22 33 60 7 9/6-11/22 30 63 7 8/10-15/22 33 60 7 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? A majority, 54%, favor a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life and health of the mother, while 43% are opposed and 3% didn’t know. This is the first time this question has been asked.
In January, a question was asked about a state policy for a 14-week ban, which was then being discussed in the legislature. In that poll, 45% favored such a policy, while 48% were opposed and 8% said they didn’t know.
Health care
Health care did not rise to the top of the most important problems, but there has been increased political discussion of the Affordable Care Act or “Obamacare” in recent months. In April, a majority, 51%, have a favorable view of the law, with 38% unfavorable and 11% who don’t know. Views of the ACA have improved since 2017, the year efforts to replace the law failed in Congress, as shown in Table 19.
Table 19: Views of the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare
Among registered voters
Poll dates View of ACA Favorable Unfavorable Don’t know 4/3-10/24 51 38 11 2/19-23/20 48 48 4 4/3-7/19 45 49 6 9/12-16/18 47 45 7 6/22-25/17 41 51 7 3/13-16/17 45 46 8 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010, often called the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? Biden and Trump presidential job approval
Biden’s job approval in April stands at 40%, a one-point decline in approval since January, with disapproval at 57%. Table 20 shows the recent trend in job approval.
Table 20: Biden job approval
Among registered voters
Poll dates Job approval Total approve Total disapprove Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 4/3-10/24 40 57 16 24 8 49 1/24-31/24 41 58 18 23 10 48 10/26-11/2/23 42 57 17 25 12 44 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? Biden approval by party identification is shown in Table 21. Republicans are nearly unanimous in their disapproval of Biden at 95%, with independents’ disapproval at 55% and approval at 34%. Democrats are quite approving of Biden at 81%, with16% disapproving.
Table 21: Biden job approval, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Job approval Approve Disapprove Don’t know Republican 5 95 1 Independent 34 55 9 Democrat 81 16 3 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? The April poll also asked respondents if they approved or disapproved of the job Trump did when he was president. Forty-seven percent approved and 52% disapproved. This matches Trump’s approval in the last Marquette Law School Poll survey before the 2020 election, when 47% approved and 52% disapproved.
Table 22 shows Trump approval by party identification. Virtually all Democrats, 97%, disapprove of how Trump handled his job as president, while a large majority of Republicans, 86%, approved. Independents are closely balanced, with 49% approving and 47% disapproving.
Table 22: Trump job approval, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Job approval Approve Disapprove Don’t know Republican 86 14 0 Independent 49 47 1 Democrat 3 97 0 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president? Vote choice is strongly related to approval, though Biden wins a majority of voters among those who somewhat disapprove of the job he is doing, as shown in Table 23.
Table 23: Biden vs. Trump, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
Biden job approval Vote choice Joe Biden Donald Trump Total 49 51 Strongly approve 100 0 Somewhat approve 96 3 Somewhat disapprove 56 43 Strongly disapprove 8 92 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? In contrast with Biden, those who somewhat disapprove of the job Trump did as president give a majority of their vote to Biden: 59%, compared with 40% who prefer Trump. Table 24 shows vote by approval of Trump’s job as president.
Table 24: Biden vs. Trump, by Trump job approval
Among registered voters
Trump job approval Vote choice Joe Biden Donald Trump Total 49 51 Strongly approve 1 99 Somewhat approve 7 92 Somewhat disapprove 59 40 Strongly disapprove 95 4 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president? Characteristics of Biden and Trump
Table 25 shows how well voters regard various phrases as describing Biden and Trump.
Corruption charges have been leveled against both candidates, with 61% saying “has behaved corruptly” describes Trump and 47% saying this describes Biden.
Biden is seen as having the right temperament to be president by 52%, while 41% say Trump has the right temperament.
Biden is seen as too old to be president by 80%, compared to those who see Trump as too old, 58%.
On “shares your values,” 48% say this describes Biden and 45% say it describes Trump.
On their records as president, Trump has an advantage, with 58% saying “strong record of accomplishments” describes him while 44% say this describes Biden.
Table 25: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
Candidate How well phrase describes Poll dates Very/somewhat well Not too/not at all well Has behaved corruptly Biden 4/3-10/24 47 53 Biden 1/24-31/24 49 50 Biden 10/26-11/2/23 47 52 Trump 4/3-10/24 61 38 Trump 1/24-31/24 67 32 Trump 10/26-11/2/23 67 32 Has the right temperament to be president Biden 4/3-10/24 52 48 Trump 4/3-10/24 41 59 Is too old to be president Biden 4/3-10/24 80 18 Biden 1/24-31/24 82 17 Biden 10/26-11/2/23 77 22 Trump 4/3-10/24 58 41 Trump 1/24-31/24 56 44 Trump 10/26-11/2/23 54 45 Shares your values Biden 4/3-10/24 48 52 Biden 1/24-31/24 46 53 Biden 10/26-11/2/23 46 54 Trump 4/3-10/24 45 55 Trump 1/24-31/24 42 58 Trump 10/26-11/2/23 42 58 Strong record of accomplishments as president Biden 4/3-10/24 44 56 Biden 1/24-31/24 43 57 Biden 10/26-11/2/23 41 58 Trump 4/3-10/24 58 42 Trump 1/24-31/24 52 48 Trump 10/26-11/2/23 50 50 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)? Direction of the state, economic conditions, and personal financial situation
A majority of registered voters say the state of Wisconsin is on the wrong track, 59%, while 41% say it is headed in the right direction. In January, 57% said the state was on the wrong track, and 42% said it was headed in the right direction. The recent trend for this opinion is shown in Table 26.
Table 26: Right direction or wrong track
Among registered voters
Poll dates Direction of state Right direction Wrong track Don’t know 4/3-10/24 41 59 0 1/24-31/24 42 57 0 10/26-11/2/23 36 62 2 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? A majority of Democrats see the state headed in the right direction, while a majority of Republicans and independents say the state is on the wrong track, as shown in Table 27.
Table 27: Right direction or wrong track, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Direction of the state Right direction Wrong track Total 41 59 Republican 21 79 Independent 36 62 Democrat 65 34 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? The national economy is seen as excellent by only 5%, as good by 28%, as not so good by 38%, and as poor by 28%. Views of the economy dipped slightly from January to April, as shown in Table 28.
Table 28: Views of the national economy
Among registered voters
Poll dates National economy Excellent Good Not so good Poor 4/3-10/24 5 28 38 28 1/24-31/24 6 32 34 28 10/26-11/2/23 3 24 36 37 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? Views of the economy differ sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 29, with Republicans quite negative and Democrats quite positive. Independents are more negative than positive, though less negative than Republicans.
Table 29: Views of the national economy, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Description of national economy Excellent Good Not so good Poor Total 5 28 38 28 Republican 0 9 46 44 Independent 2 31 34 33 Democrat 12 50 31 8 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? Respondents see the Wisconsin economy as better than the national economy. The comparison is shown in Table 30.
Table 30: Wisconsin economy vs. national economy
Among registered voters
State or national View of economy Excellent Good Not so good Poor Wisconsin economy 6 38 42 14 National economy 5 28 38 28 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days? Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? Partisan differences are also strong in views of Wisconsin’s economy, though views of the state are more positive than of the nation across each partisan category, as shown in Table 31.
Table 31: Views of the Wisconsin economy, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Description of Wisconsin economy Excellent Good Not so good Poor Total 6 38 42 14 Republican 0 23 55 21 Independent 6 34 42 17 Democrat 11 56 26 6 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days? Their family financial situation is seen by respondents as a little worse in April than in January. Among registered voters, 45% say they are living comfortably. That is a four-point drop from January, with a two-point increase each for “just getting by” to 40% and “struggling” to 15%. This trend is shown in Table 32.
Table 32: Family financial situation
Among registered voters
Poll dates Financial situation Living comfortably Just getting by Struggling 4/3-10/24 45 40 15 1/24-31/24 49 38 13 10/26-11/2/23 48 36 15 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? Partisan differences in personal financial situation are shown in Table 33. Republicans are less likely to say they are living comfortably than either independents or Democrats.
Table 33: Family financial situation, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Family financial situation Living comfortably Just getting by Struggling Total 45 40 15 Republican 38 47 14 Independent 44 33 23 Democrat 54 34 13 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court
Table 34 shows the job approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers’ approval is 52% and disapproval is 44%. In January, Evers’s approval was 51% and disapproval was 44%.
Table 34: Approval of governor, the legislature, and state Supreme Court
Among registered voters
Approval Approval of Poll dates Approve Disapprove Don’t know Tony Evers 4/3-10/24 52 44 3 Tony Evers 1/24-31/24 51 44 5 Tony Evers 10/26-11/2/23 53 46 2 The Wisconsin legislature 4/3-10/24 34 56 9 The Wisconsin legislature 1/24-31/24 34 58 8 The Wisconsin legislature 10/26-11/2/23 40 57 3 The Wisconsin state Supreme Court 4/3-10/24 46 39 15 The Wisconsin state Supreme Court 1/24-31/24 45 43 13 The Wisconsin state Supreme Court 10/26-11/2/23 51 43 5 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest April 3-10, 2024 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job? Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job? Favorability of state elected officials
Favorability ratings of Sen. Ron Johnson, Evers, and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 35. Vos is far less known statewide than are the others.
Table 35: Favorability of state political figures
Among registered voters
Favorability to Favorability Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough Don’t know Ron Johnson 39 51 11 NA Tony Evers 50 45 5 0 Robin Vos 17 37 44 1 Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, April 3-10, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted April 3-10, 2024, interviewing 814 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. The sample contains 736 likely voters, those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 588 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 226 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 653 respondents and with 161 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.
The partisan makeup of the sample is 34% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 34% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.
The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.
- New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Biden and Trump each supported by 50% of registered votersby Charles Franklin
Among likely voters, Biden draws support of 52%, Trump draws 48%
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump each to be the choice of 50% of registered voters. Among likely voters, Biden receives 52% and Trump 48%.
In the most recent prior Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, Trump was the choice of 51% and Biden the pick of 49% among registered voters, while Trump won 52% and Biden 48% among likely voters.
These results include voters who initially said they would vote for someone else or would not vote, but were then asked their preference if they had to choose one of the two candidates. In the initial question, 15% said they would vote for someone else or they would not vote. Trump received initial support from 44% and Biden from 42%.
Table 1 shows that Biden does best with “likely voters”—those who are registered and say they are certain they will vote. Trump has a substantial margin with those who are registered but say they are not certain if they will vote. Trump’s largest advantage is with those adults who are not registered to vote. This highlights the potential impact of voter registration and turnout efforts in the upcoming campaign. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump, by registration and certainty of voting
Among adults
Registration & certainty of voting Vote choice Donald Trump Joe Biden Registered & certain to vote 48 52 Registered but not certain to vote 56 44 Not registered 64 36 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Question: Are you registered to vote at your present address, or not? Question: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2024 general election for president, Congress, and other offices — are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote? The survey was conducted March 18-28, 2024, interviewing 868 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size was 674, with a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points. The sample size for all adults was 1,000, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.
The Marquette Law School Poll’s national surveys have seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May 2023, with the trend shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Presidential vote choice, Biden v. Trump, national surveys, May 2023–March 2024
Among registered voters
Poll dates Vote Donald Trump Joe Biden 3/18-28/24 50 50 2/5-15/24 51 49 11/2-7/23 52 48 9/18-25/23 51 48 7/7-12/23 50 50 5/8-18/23 52 47 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden? Table 3 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification in February and March national surveys. Trump’s support among Republicans slipped by 5 percentage points from February to March, while Biden’s support among Democrats rose by 2 percentage points. In March, a majority of independents said they would vote for Biden, reversing Trump’s advantage with independents in February.
Table 3: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Vote choice Donald Trump Joe Biden 3/18-28/24 Republican 88 12 Independent 46 53 Democrat 7 93 2/5-15/24 Republican 93 7 Independent 54 43 Democrat 9 91 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Feb. 5-15, 2024, and March 18-28, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Among likely voters, the trend in vote choice is shown in Table 4. The likely-voter measure was not included before September.
Table 4: Presidential vote choice, Biden v. Trump, Sept. 2023–March 2024
Among likely voters
Poll dates Vote Donald Trump Joe Biden 3/18-28/24 48 52 2/5-15/24 52 48 11/2-7/23 51 49 9/18-25/23 49 51 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden? Five-way race
When the ballot question is expanded to include independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump receives 41% and Biden 38%. Kennedy is supported by 14%, West wins 5%, and Stein is the choice of 2%.
The national trend in the five-way race is shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Five-candidate ballot choice, Feb-March 2024
Among registered voters
Poll dates Vote Biden Trump Kennedy West Stein 3/18-28/24 38 41 14 5 2 2/5-15/24 39 42 15 3 2 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? The five-way vote by party is shown in Table 6. The additional candidates draw partisan support away from both Trump and Biden. Trump holds 77% support from Republicans, and Biden 76% support from Democrats. Kennedy draws 12% equally from both Republicans and Democrats, while West does one point better with Republicans. Stein takes 4% from Democrats but wins no Republican support. Independent voters are widely spread across the candidates, with the independent and third-party candidates doing much better with independents than with partisans. Trump and Biden both win 20% from independents, while Kennedy takes 37%, West 15%, and Stein 7%.
Table 6: Five-candidate ballot, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Vote choice Biden Trump Kennedy West Stein 3/18-28/24 Republican 7 77 12 4 0 Independent 20 20 37 15 7 Democrat 76 5 12 3 4 2/5-15/24 Republican 4 80 15 0 1 Independent 18 34 29 13 4 Democrat 78 5 12 4 2 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? Favorability
All the candidates, as well as Vice President Kamala Harris, have a net negative favorability rating, as shown in Table 7, with more unfavorable than favorable ratings. The independent candidates, Kennedy and West, have high rates of “haven’t heard enough.” Harris has the highest net negative favorability rating at -25, with Biden at -20 and Trump at -13. Favorability to Stein was not included in this survey.
Table 7: Favorability ratings
Among registered voters
Candidate Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough Kamala Harris -25 35 60 5 Joe Biden -20 40 60 1 Donald Trump -13 43 56 1 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. -9 30 39 30 Cornel West -6 12 18 70 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? Biden’s favorability rating over time is shown in Table 8. Biden’s net favorability has fallen from -5 in November 2021 to -20 in the current survey; it is little changed in the past year.
Table 8: Biden favorability trend
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough 3/18-28/24 -20 40 60 1 2/5-15/24 -20 40 60 1 11/2-7/23 -19 40 59 1 9/18-25/23 -21 39 60 1 7/7-12/23 -17 41 58 1 5/8-18/23 -23 37 60 3 3/13-22/23 -15 41 56 3 1/9-20/23 -11 43 54 2 11/15-22/22 -6 46 52 3 9/7-14/22 -9 44 53 2 7/5-12/22 -26 35 61 3 5/9-19/22 -17 40 57 3 3/14-24/22 -10 44 54 2 1/10-21/22 -6 46 52 3 11/1-10/21 -5 45 50 5 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? The favorability trend for Trump is shown in Table 9. Trump’s net favorability has improved from -34 in November 2021 to -13 in the current poll, although it is 4 points more negative than in February.
Table 9: Trump favorability trend
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough 3/18-28/24 -13 43 56 1 2/5-15/24 -9 45 54 1 11/2-7/23 -15 42 57 2 9/18-25/23 -15 42 57 1 7/7-12/23 -28 35 63 2 5/8-18/23 -21 38 59 2 3/13-22/23 -29 34 63 2 1/9-20/23 -26 36 62 2 11/15-22/22 -36 31 67 1 9/7-14/22 -30 34 64 2 7/5-12/22 -27 35 62 3 5/9-19/22 -23 37 60 2 3/14-24/22 -22 38 60 2 1/10-21/22 -37 31 68 1 11/1-10/21 -34 32 66 2 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? For Biden and Trump, 19% of respondents are unfavorable to both candidates. The percentage of those unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 10. Biden had an advantage in favorability over Trump in most of the early polling, but Trump has held the advantage over the last four polls.
Table 10: Favorability to Biden and Trump, Nov. 2021–March 2024
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability to both Fav Biden, Fav Trump Fav Biden, Unfav Trump Unfav Biden, Fav Trump Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump DK either 3/18-28/24 3 37 40 19 1 2/5-15/24 2 37 42 17 1 11/2-7/23 3 36 38 20 2 9/18-25/23 3 36 39 20 2 7/7-12/23 1 39 33 23 3 5/8-18/23 2 35 36 23 5 3/13-22/23 2 39 32 23 5 1/9-20/23 1 42 34 19 4 11/15-22/22 1 44 30 21 4 9/7-14/22 1 43 32 21 3 7/5-12/22 0 35 34 26 5 5/9-19/22 1 39 36 20 4 3/14-24/22 2 41 35 18 3 1/10-21/22 2 44 29 22 4 11/1-10/21 1 43 30 20 6 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? Those who are unfavorable to both have varied in their vote choices over recent polls, as shown in Table 11. In the current poll, those unfavorable to both support Biden by 59% to 41% for Trump, while in February Biden got 63% and Trump 36%. However, in November 2023, those unfavorable to both supported Trump 52% to 48% for Biden. (The sample size of those favorable to both Biden and Trump is too small for meaningful analysis and thus is not included in the table.)
Table 11: Biden vs. Trump vote, by favorability to both
Among registered voters
Favorability to Biden and Trump Vote Donald Trump Joe Biden 3/18-28/24 Fav Biden, Unfav Trump 0 100 Unfav Biden, Fav Trump 100 0 Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump 41 59 2/5-15/24 Fav Biden, Unfav Trump 2 98 Unfav Biden, Fav Trump 100 0 Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump 36 63 11/2-7/23 Fav Biden, Unfav Trump 2 98 Unfav Biden, Fav Trump 99 1 Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump 52 48 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? Presidential approval
Biden’s job approval in March was 40%, with 60% disapproving—a slight improvement from February’s 38% approval and 62% disapproval.
Asked if they approved or disapproved of how Trump handled his job when he was president, 47% approved and 53% disapproved. This the first time the retrospective approval of Trump has been asked.
A strength of Biden, despite his high disapproval rating, has been his ability to win votes from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president, typically winning a small majority of this group of voters. Table 12 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval of Biden’s job performance. Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approval, while Trump dominates the strongly-disapproving voters. Biden wins 61% for those somewhat disapproving of his job performance, while Trump is favored by 39% of those. In February, Biden took 60% to Trump’s 40% among the somewhat disapproving. Biden’s share among those who somewhat disapprove was slightly lower, 55%, in November.
Table 12: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
Biden job approval Vote Donald Trump Joe Biden 3/18-28/24 Strongly approve 1 99 Somewhat approve 6 94 Somewhat disapprove 39 61 Strongly disapprove 92 8 2/5-15/24 Strongly approve 2 98 Somewhat approve 9 91 Somewhat disapprove 40 60 Strongly disapprove 95 4 11/2-7/23 Strongly approve 3 97 Somewhat approve 9 91 Somewhat disapprove 45 55 Strongly disapprove 94 6 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? Perceptions of Biden and Trump
Table 13 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, and, to a lesser degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen as better on abortion policy and health care. Slightly more see him as better than Biden on handling Medicare and Social Security, as well. These views of the candidates have remained quite stable over the last three polls.
The percentage say that neither candidate would be good on an issue, or they would both be about the same, ranges from 18% to 26%, an indication that even with two such well-known candidates, there remains considerable uncertainty over how successfully each would handle these issues.
Table 13: Who would handle issues better
Registered voters
Who better on issue Poll dates Biden Trump Both about the same Neither good Immigration and border security 3/18-28/24 27 54 7 12 2/5-15/24 25 53 6 15 11/2-7/23 27 50 7 16 The economy 3/18-28/24 32 51 9 9 2/5-15/24 32 52 7 10 11/2-7/23 30 51 7 11 Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza 3/18-28/24 32 42 9 17 2/5-15/24 28 43 11 18 11/2-7/23 31 42 11 16 Foreign relations 3/18-28/24 39 41 8 12 2/5-15/24 37 44 7 12 11/2-7/23 38 44 7 11 Medicare & Social Security 3/18-28/24 39 36 14 11 2/5-15/24 40 36 13 11 11/2-7/23 38 39 11 12 Health care 3/18-28/24 40 34 13 13 2/5-15/24 42 34 13 11 Abortion policy 3/18-28/24 42 33 10 15 2/5-15/24 42 34 11 12 11/2-7/23 41 34 10 14 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues? Healthcare not asked in November Table 14 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden, particularly, is seen as too old to be president, with 55% saying this describes him very well. For Trump, 23% say he is too old to be president.
On “shares your values,” more say this describes Trump very well than Biden, but more also say this describes Trump not at all well than say the same of Biden.
Corruption assertions have been leveled against both candidates; 29% say “has behaved corruptly” describes Biden very well, and 42% say the same for Trump.
On having a strong record of accomplishment as president, 17% say this describes Biden very well, while 28% say this describes Trump very well.
“Has the right temperament to be president” is seen as describing Biden very well by 24% and as describing Trump very well by 15%.
Table 14: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
Issue How well phrase describes Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Is too old to be president Biden 55 22 13 10 Trump 23 29 26 22 Shares your values Biden 15 28 18 39 Trump 17 28 12 43 Has behaved corruptly Biden 29 18 23 30 Trump 42 21 19 19 Strong record of accomplishments as president Biden 17 24 20 38 Trump 28 23 19 30 Has the right temperament to be president Biden 24 27 16 33 Trump 15 21 17 47 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024 Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)? Undocumented-immigrant policy
On the issue of illegal immigration and border control, 47% strongly agree with the statement, “The Biden administration’s border policies have created a crisis of uncontrolled illegal migration into the country.” An additional 22% somewhat agree. Fifteen percent strongly disagree with the statement, and 16% somewhat disagree.
Thirty-six percent strongly favor “deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries,” with 26% who somewhat favor that. Twelve percent strongly oppose deportations and 25% somewhat oppose.
Views of deportation are somewhat different when people were asked a question focused on how to deal with undocumented immigrants already in the country. Two versions of this question were asked, each to a random half of the sample. One question asked about undocumented immigrants “currently working” in the U.S. and one asking about undocumented immigrants “currently living” in the U.S.
The questions are:
- Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.?
- They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship
- They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship
- They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.
The alternate wording is:
- Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently living in the U.S.?
- They should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship
- They should be allowed to stay in the U.S. temporarily but not to apply for U.S. citizenship
- They should be required to leave the U.S.
The results are shown in Table 15.
Table 15: Undocumented immigrant policy, by question wording
Among registered voters
Question wording Undocumented immigrant policy Stay & apply for citizenship Stay temporarily, no citizenship Required to leave U.S. Working in U.S. 41 25 34 Living in U.S. 47 11 42 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024 Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently living in the U.S.? As compared to the question that asks simply about those “living in the U.S.,” mention of “working in the U.S.” increases support for a middle sort of approach—a temporary-guest-worker option—while lowering support for both the options of a path to citizenship and of requiring undocumented immigrants to leave the U.S. In either question, substantially fewer respondents say undocumented immigrants should be required to leave the country than in the earlier-discussed question where 62% strongly or somewhat favor “deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries.”
Attention to topics in the news
Of recent events in the news, 59% said they had heard a lot about a New York court’s decision finding Trump liable for conspiring to manipulate his net worth and ordering him to pay a penalty of nearly $355 million plus interest, 28% had heard a little, and 12% had heard nothing at all.
Thirty-eight percent had heard a lot about Biden’s recent State of the Union address, while 44% heard a little and 18% heard nothing at all.
Considerably fewer, 23%, heard a lot about Sen. Katie Britt’s Republican response to the State of the Union, while 33% heard a little and 44% heard nothing at all.
The results of the Super Tuesday presidential primaries drew 33% who said they heard a lot, 45% who heard a little, and 22% who heard nothing.
Respondents are more likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. The survey asks about the latest estimates of the Consumer Price Index and the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey, February in this case. Table 16 shows attention paid to this news for inflation and for unemployment.
Table 16: How much heard about economic news
Registered voters
How much heard or read Issue A lot A little Nothing at all Inflation rate 43 46 11 Unemployment rate 22 53 25 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024 Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.2% over the past 12 months (as of February) Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.9% (as of February) Economic perceptions
Views of the nation’s economy have improved somewhat since September, though more say it is not so good or poor than say it is excellent or good. Table 17 shows the trend over the past four polls, with a dip in positive views and rise in negative views in the March survey.
Table 17: View of the national economy
Among registered voters
Poll dates View of the economy Excellent Good Not so good Poor 3/18-28/24 5 28 38 29 2/5-15/24 6 29 40 25 11/2-7/23 3 24 40 33 9/18-25/23 3 20 45 32 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? Republicans and independents are quite negative and Democrats considerably more positive about the economy. Table 18 shows opinion of the economy overall and by party identification.
Table 18: View of the national economy by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID View of the economy Excellent Good Not so good Poor Total 5 28 38 29 Republican 1 13 45 42 Independent 1 19 44 36 Democrat 11 46 31 12 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024 Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? Asked about their personal financial situation, in March 46% said they are living comfortably, 38% are just getting by, and 16% say they are struggling. That is a small increase in those saying they are living comfortably, compared to February when 42% said they were living comfortably, 41% were just getting by, and 17% said they were struggling.
International issues
Forty-seven percent say Biden has been working to negotiate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, while 25% say he has not and 28% say they don’t know.
Those saying the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel declined slightly, to 37% from 41% in February, while those saying not enough aid is being given rose to 24% from 21%. Those saying about the right amount of support is being given barely changed: 39% in March from 38% in February.
Those saying not enough support is being given to Ukraine rose to 32% from 27% in February, while those saying too much aid is being given to Ukraine dipped one percentage point to 36% from 37%. Those saying the right amount of aid is being given declined to 32% from 37% in February.
Abortion
Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 70% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 30% saying it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 19 shows the full trend on these preferences.
Table 19: Abortion policy preference trend
Among registered voters
Poll dates Policy preference Legal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Illegal in all cases 3/18-28/24 31 39 24 6 2/5-15/24 30 40 24 6 11/2-7/23 28 38 25 9 9/18-25/23 33 36 25 6 7/7-12/23 29 36 29 6 5/8-18/23 32 36 26 6 3/13-22/23 28 36 29 6 1/9-20/23 26 38 29 7 11/15-22/22 31 37 24 8 9/7-14/22 32 35 27 6 7/5-12/22 29 35 28 8 5/9-19/22 29 37 25 8 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024 Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted March18-28, 2024, interviewing 868 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 674, with a margin of error is +/-4.9 percentage points. The sample of all adults is 1,000, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.
Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample, with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on April 3. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.
