Poll Release

New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds rise in support for DeSantis candidacy for president and a tie in a possible Biden-DeSantis race

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pulled into a tie with President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with each receiving 42% support from registered voters nationwide. DeSantis has increased his support in polling since January, while Biden’s support has remained stable. Some 15% say they would prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in support is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden? (among registered voters)

Poll datesRon DeSantisJoe BidenSomeone elseWouldn’t vote
1/10-21/223443175
3/14-24/223539195
9/7-14/223843155
11/15-22/224242114

Biden continues to lead former President Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch with 44% to Trump’s 34%, while 23% say they prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in preference between Biden and Trump is shown in Table 2.

 

Table 2: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (among registered voters)

Poll datesDonald TrumpJoe BidenSomeone elseWouldn’t vote
11/1-10/213543184
1/10-21/223345184
3/14-24/223843164
9/7-14/223642193
11/15-22/223444194

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. The survey included 840 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The Republican subsample has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points, and the Democratic subsample margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.

Both Republicans and Democrats are divided over Trump or Biden as their party’s nominee in 2024. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (hereafter “Republicans”), 55% would like to see Trump run in 2024, while 45% said they would not like him to run. (Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican nomination on Nov. 15.) In the immediate previous national Marquette poll in September, 60% wanted Trump to run and 40% did not. The full trend since November 2021 is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll datesYesNo
11/1-10/216040
1/10-21/225644
3/14-24/226139
5/9-19/226138
7/5-12/226435
9/7-14/226040
11/15-22/225545

Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic (hereafter “Democrats”), 49% would like to see Biden run in 2024 and 51% would not. In September, 44% wanted him to run and 56% did not. This question had not been asked before September.

Among Republican registered voters, DeSantis has become steadily better known and seen more favorably since January, with 68% holding a favorable opinion, 10% unfavorable, and 22% saying they don’t know enough to give a rating. In January, 57% were favorable, 9% were unfavorable, and 34% lacked an opinion of DeSantis. The full trend is shown in Table 4.

 

Table 4: Ron DeSantis: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republicans and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
1/10-21/2257934
3/14-24/2257735
5/9-19/22581527
7/5-12/2262929
9/7-14/22651025
11/15-22/22681022

Among Republican registered voters, Trump is seen favorably by 67% and unfavorably by 32%, with 1% failing to give an opinion. Trump’s recent high-water mark for favorability was in July when 76% had a favorable opinion and 22% an unfavorable opinion. The full trend since Nov. 2021 is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Donald Trump: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
11/1-10/2170291
1/10-21/2271281
3/14-24/2275231
5/9-19/2275222
7/5-12/2276222
9/7-14/2274251
11/15-22/2267321

Former Vice President Mike Pence is seen favorably by 51% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%, with 9% failing to give an opinion. Pence’s favorable rating has declined and unfavorable increased since November 2021, as shown in Table 6.

 

Table 6: Mike Pence: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21652114
1/10-21/22573112
3/14-24/22592813
5/9-19/22503416
7/5-12/22493120
9/7-14/22543214
11/15-22/2251409

DeSantis appeals to many of Trump’s GOP supporters, being seen favorably among Republicans who are also favorable to Trump, and, to a lesser but still-notable degree, he is also seen favorably among those unfavorable to Trump. Table 7 shows the relationship between Trump and DeSantis favorability, among Republican registered voters.

Table 7: Favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Trump FavorabilityFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion76420
Unfavorable opinion512327

This high favorability does not carry over to opinion of Trump’s former vice president, Pence. In this case, just over half of Republicans who have a favorable opinion of Trump are also favorable to Pence, while 39% are unfavorable to him. Favorability to Pence is evenly divided among those Republicans who are unfavorable to Trump: 44% are favorable to Pence and 45% unfavorable, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Favorability to Pence by favorability to Trump (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Trump FavorabilityFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion54398
Unfavorable opinion444510

Issues for 2023

Survey respondents were asked if they favor or oppose each of 20 policy proposals drawn from recent Republican and Democratic congressional policy statements. The most popular issue is “limit the cost of prescription drugs,” favored by 92% of all adult respondents. This issue is the top choice among independents and Democrats and has the third highest support among Republicans. The least popular of the 20 proposals is “require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically,” favored by 32% and opposed by 68% among all respondents. This proposal ranks last among Republicans, is 4th from the bottom with Democrats, and 3rd from the bottom with independents.

The support for all 20 policies is shown in Table 9 for all adults, and in Table 10 through Table 12 for Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The preferences differ substantially by party, although some policies rank relatively high across partisan groups. In addition to limiting prescription drug costs, “pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote” ranks 7th with Republicans and 2nd with both Democrats and independents. Among the largest partisan divides is “pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy,” which ranks 8th with 69% support among Republicans, but 18th among Democrats (19% support) and 17th with independents (40% support.) “Impeach Joe Biden” is also sharply partisan, as the 9th ranked issue among Republicans but the bottom-ranked with Democrats and 19th of 20 with independents.

Table 9: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

IssueFavorOppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs928
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote8416
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation7822
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools7723
Increase tax credits for low-income workers7525
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,0007426
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.7426
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar7426
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs7327
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions7030
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border6931
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide6733
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI5941
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools5544
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition5148
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine4555
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy4159
Impeach Joe Biden3466
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden3466
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically3268

 

Table 10: Among Republicans: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

IssueFavorOppose
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border946
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.937
Limit the cost of prescription drugs8911
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide8317
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI8020
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition7921
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote7227
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy6931
Impeach Joe Biden6733
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools6733
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden6634
Increase tax credits for low-income workers6535
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation6139
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools6139
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine5842
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs5644
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,0005347
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar4951
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions4753
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically4060


Table 11: Among Democrats: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

IssueFavorOppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs964
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote946
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar928
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000919
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation9010
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools9010
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions8910
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs8416
Increase tax credits for low-income workers8416
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.5842
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide5743
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border5149
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools4555
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI4258
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine3466
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition2871
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically2377
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy1981
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden991
Impeach Joe Biden793

 

Table 12: Among independents: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

IssueFavorOppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs8713
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote8416
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation8119
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs8020
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar7822
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools7821
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,0007524
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.7424
Increase tax credits for low-income workers7129
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions6732
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI6139
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border6040
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools5940
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide5643
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition5149
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine4752
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy4060
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically3763
Impeach Joe Biden3268
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden2773

Aid to Ukraine

A substantial percentage of respondents, 70%, say they have heard a lot about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while 23% say they have heard a little and 7% have heard nothing at all. Table 13 shows exposure to news about this overall and by party identification. Republicans and Democrats report equal exposure to news about the Ukraine conflict, while independents report substantially less exposure.

 

Table 13: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party IDA lotA littleNothing at all
Total70237
Republican73225
Independent513316
Democrat74206

U.S. military aid to Ukraine has emerged as a bit of a partisan divide in recent months. Table 14 shows overall opinion and by party (taken from the tables above.)

Table 14: Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Party IDFavor reducing aidOppose
Total4555
Republican5842
Independent4752
Democrat3466

These results shift somewhat when the issue is framed differently, later in the survey. There the question explicitly mentions that Russia invaded Ukraine: “When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?”

Table 15 shows that with this framing, explicitly mentioning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is less of a view, both overall and in each partisan category, that the U.S. is providing too much support, than with the previous “sharply reduce” framing that did not mention the Russian invasion. Almost half of Republicans (48%) say there is too much U.S. support, while 36% of independents and 17% of Democrats say the U.S. is providing too much support. Only a little over 20% of each partisan group say the U.S. is not providing enough support.

Table 15: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine? (in percentages)

Party IDToo much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of support
Total322345
Republican482131
Independent362043
Democrat172657

Respondents say that what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States, with fewer than 20% of all respondents, and fewer than 25% in all partisan groups, saying the conflicts matter “not much” or “not at all” to life in the United States. More than a third say it matters “a great deal” and around 40% say it matters “some,” as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: How much do you think what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States?

Party IDA great dealSomeNot muchNot at all
Total3942145
Republican3443166
Independent3739176
Democrat4342104

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 60% say it is better for the country to take an active part, whereas 40% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out, and a minority, 44%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are on balance in favor of international involvement, and Democrats are especially so, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Party IDTake an active part in world affairsStay out of world affairs
Total6040
Republican5545
Independent4456
Democrat7030

Confidence in the 2022 and 2020 elections

Seventy-one percent say they are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the 2022 elections, while 29% are not too or not at all confident in the results. Republicans remain less confident in election outcomes than are independents or Democrats, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for state and national offices were accurately cast and counted in the elections this November, 2022?

Party IDVery confidentSomewhat confidentNot too confidentNot at all confident
Total3734218
Republican14363316
Independent23392910
Democrat613091

Doubts about the 2020 election, especially among Republicans, are higher than for the 2022 vote. Table 19 shows confidence in the 2020 election in total and by party.

 

Table 19: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Party IDVery confidentSomewhat confidentNot too confidentNot at all confident
Total39251718
Republican13262536
Independent21372913
Democrat682174

Biden job approval

Biden’s job approval is unchanged since September at 45% approval and 55% disapproval. The trend in presidential approval since July 2021 is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Poll datesApproveDisapprove
7/16-26/215842
9/7-16/214852
11/1-10/214951
1/10-21/224653
3/14-24/224455
5/9-19/224257
7/5-12/223664
9/7-14/224555
11/15-22/224555

Presidential favorability, past and present

Favorability to the current and recent past presidents shows considerable variation in overall opinion and by party, among adults nationwide.

Biden’s favorability rating closely resembles his job approval, as shown in Table 21, and shows large partisan differences. Biden is seen positively among Democrats, but independents and Republicans are quite unfavorable to him.

 

Table 21: Joe Biden: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Total43533
Republican6922
Independent315811
Democrat78202

Trump has lower favorable ratings than Biden overall and is also less favorably viewed among Republicans than Biden is viewed among Democrats. Independents are also more unfavorable to Trump than to Biden. Democrats are as negative towards Trump as Republicans are towards Biden. Table 22 shows these details.

Table 22: Donald Trump: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Total32662
Republican66322
Independent26668
Democrat5950

Two other former presidents, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, are seen more favorably by the public than are the current or immediately previous presidents. Obama is viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by 34% of all adults. He is seen favorably by one-in-four Republicans, far more than see Biden in that light, and by substantial majorities of independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Barack Obama: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Total62344
Republican25733
Independent63288
Democrat9353

Former President Bush is seen favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 40% of adults. A majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats see him favorably, though independents are more unfavorable than favorable, as shown in Table 24.

 

Table 24: George W. Bush: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Total51409
Republican59347
Independent364518
Democrat49438

Secret documents at Mar-a-Lago

The investigation of Trump’s possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago continues, with courts considering various issues. Among the public, 66% say they believe Trump had top-secret and other classified material at his Florida home, while 34% do not believe this. In September, 67% believed he had secret documents and 34% did not believe that.

Table 25 shows how these beliefs differ by party in the November survey.

Table 25: Do you believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago this summer?

Party IDYesNo
Total6634
Republican3466
Independent6436
Democrat937

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, and 840 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The Republican subsample of 368 respondents has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points and the Democratic subsample of 383 respondents has a margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, Nov. 30, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds small rebound in approval of U.S. Supreme Court, continued opposition to use of race as a factor in college admissions

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 44% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 56% disapprove. In September, 40% approved and 60% disapproved. Approval declined sharply between July and September 2021, then fell further in May 2022 following the leaked draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, the decision in June overturning Roe v. Wade, which had permitted abortion nationwide. The trend in approval of the Court since 2020 is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Poll datesApproveDisapproveSkipped/Ref
9/8-15/2066331
7/16-26/2160391
9/7-16/2149501
11/1-10/2154461
1/10-21/2252462
3/14-24/2254451
5/9-19/2244551
7/5-12/2238611
9/7-14/2240600
11/15-22/2244560

Approval of the Court is quite high among Republicans, among whom 70% approve and 30% disapprove. Among independents, however, 40% approve and 60% disapprove. Among Democrats, 28% approve and 72% disapprove.

The latest Marquette Law School Supreme Court Survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.

In the current term, the Court will hear cases on whether race may be considered in college admissions, whether religious beliefs and free speech rights entitle businesses to deny some services to LGTBQ customers, and how states can set the rules for federal elections, among other cases.

The Marquette survey finds that the public is skeptical of the use of race in college admissions, with 41% in favor of a decision that would find a legal ban on the use of race and 16% opposed. The case is not yet on the top of mind for most respondents, however, with 42% saying they haven’t heard anything about such a case or haven’t heard not enough to have an opinion.

Marquette polling since September 2021 has shown a consistent opposition among the public to the use of race in admissions, as shown in Table 2. Those saying they haven’t heard or haven’t heard enough increased over the summer, from 33% in March to 50% in September. Table 2 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 2 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 2: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll datesHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
9/7-16/21335313
3/14-24/22334917
9/7-14/22503713
11/15-22/22424116

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll datesFavorOppose
9/7-16/218119
3/14-24/227525
9/7-14/227426
11/15-22/227228

While large percentages say they haven’t heard enough about the college admissions case, more respondents within each race and ethnic group favor banning use of race as a factor in admissions than think consideration of race should continue to be permitted. Table 3 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 3 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 3: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By race of the respondent.

Race & ethnicityHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
White384516
Black522721
Hispanic493713
Other/Multiple43489

(b) Among those with an opinion

Race & ethnicityFavorOppose
White7327
Black5644
Hispanic7426
Other/Multiple8416

The margins favoring an end to allowing race as a factor in admissions are larger among those who see racism as less of a problem in the country today than among those who see racism as a bigger problem. Yet even those who say racism is a very big problem more favor ending the consideration of race in admissions than continuing its use. Among those with an opinion on this case, majorities in each group also favor ending the consideration of race in admissions, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By view of how big a problem is racism.

How big a problem is racismHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
A very big problem492723
A moderately big problem434115
A small problem/not a problem at all32608
How big a problem is racismFavorOppose
A very big problem5446
A moderately big problem7327
A small problem/not a problem at all8812

There are substantial partisan differences on this issue, but, within every partisan group, more favor ending the consideration of race than support its continued use, as shown in Table 5

Table 5: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party IDHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
Republican37549
Lean Republican276111
Independent523414
Lean Democrat483616
Democrat462925

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party IDFavorOppose
Republican8614
Lean Republican8515
Independent7030
Lean Democrat6931
Democrat5347

Another case set for argument on Dec. 5, 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, poses the question whether the religious beliefs or free speech rights of business owners can justify refusing to provide some services to LGBTQ customers. Among those surveyed in this national Marquette poll, a plurality, 40%, oppose allowing a business to refuse services, while 25% favor a ruling that would permit a business to do this. As with college admissions, a substantial group, 35% in this instance, has not heard of this case or has not heard enough to have an opinion. The trend in opinion on this question is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll datesHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
3/14-24/22292843
9/7-14/22442135
11/15-22/22352540

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll datesHeard of and favorHeard of and oppose
3/14-24/223961
9/7-14/223763
11/15-22/223961

Those who favor the Court’s 2015 decision finding a constitutional right to same-sex marriage are strongly opposed to allowing businesses to refuse services, while those who oppose same-sex marriage favor allowing businesses to choose not to provide services, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By opinion of same-sex marriage ruling.

(a) Among all respondents

Opinion on same sex marriage rulingHeard nothing/not heard enoughFavorOppose
Favor351550
Oppose345313

(b) Among those with an opinion

Favor/oppose same sex marriage rulingFavor the possible decisionOppose the possible decision
Favor2377
Oppose8020

Those who identify as born-again Protestants are strongly in favor of allowing businesses to deny services, but mainline Protestants, Roman Catholics, members of other religions, and those with no religion are opposed to allowing businesses to choose not to serve gay or lesbian customers, shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By religion.

(a) Among all respondents

ReligionHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
Born-again Protestant404416
Mainline Protestant342541
Roman Catholic392239
No religion281755
Other religion352440

(b) Among those with an opinion

ReligionFavor the possible decisionOppose the possible decision
Born-again Protestant7327
Mainline Protestant3862
Roman Catholic3565
No religion2377
Other religion3862

On Dec. 7, 2022, the Court will hear arguments in Moore v. Harper, addressing the “independent state legislature” theory, which holds that, under the Constitution, only the state legislature has the power to regulate congressional elections in a state, and that state courts cannot overturn or revise the legislature’s decisions.

Most respondents (70%) have not heard anything or have not heard enough to have an opinion about this case, while 7% favor a ruling that state legislatures have sole authority and 22% oppose holding state courts to be without authority to alter the legislatures’ decisions.

Among those who do have an opinion on this case, 25% favor the independent power of legislatures, while 75% are opposed to this view of legislative authority.

These results are shown in Table 9. This is the first time this question has been asked.

Table 9: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that under the Constitution, the state legislatures have the power to regulate federal elections and are not subject to review by state courts.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll datesHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
11/15-22/2270722

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll datesFavor the possible decisionOppose the possible decision
11/15-22/222575

The independent state legislature theory is not well known, as the fact of 70% saying they’ve not heard enough to have an opinion attests. Of those with an opinion, Republicans are closely divided, with 55% in favor of and 45% opposed to this view of legislative authority. Among independents with an opinion, 9% favor and 91% oppose ruling for expansive legislative authority, while among Democrats with an opinion 22% favor and 78% oppose such a ruling.

Prior decisions

In the current survey, 33% favor the June decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning the Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision, while 66% oppose that ruling.

Previous Marquette polls have also found a majority opposed to overturning Roe among those who had heard enough to have an opinion. This trend is shown in Table 10. The question wording in the November poll does not invite respondents to say if they haven’t heard enough, while previous polls included that invitation. Among those who had heard enough, the responses were quite similar to the results with the current wording.

 

Table 10: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade in past surveys. Among those with an opinion.

Poll datesHeard of and favor the decisionHeard of and oppose the decision
9/7-16/212872
11/1-10/213070
1/10-21/222872
3/14-24/223268
5/9-19/223169
7/5-12/223664
9/7-14/223367

A majority of the public favors the June 2022 ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, which established a right to possess a gun outside the home, with 64% in favor of that decision and 35% opposed.

Support for this ruling, among those with an opinion, was consistently high prior to the decision in June, as shown in Table 11. As with the abortion decision above, the question wording in the November poll does not invite respondents to say if they haven’t heard enough, while previous polls included that invitation.

Table 11: Favor or oppose ruling that Second Amendment protects right to possess a gun outside the home. Among those with an opinion.

Poll datesHeard of and favor the decisionHeard of and oppose the decision
9/7-16/216337
11/1-10/216535
1/10-21/226733
3/14-24/226337
5/9-19/226634
7/5-12/225644
9/7-14/225743

Looking back to earlier decisions, a substantial majority favor the Court’s 2015 ruling establishing a right to same-sex marriage, 72%, while 28% are opposed. This trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
5/9-19/226931
7/5-12/226634
9/7-14/227129
11/15-22/227228

The public also strongly favors the Court’s 2020 ruling the federal law protects LGBTQ workers from employment discrimination, with 83% in favor of that decision and 17% opposed. The trend on this is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
5/9-19/228316
7/5-12/228416
9/7-14/228712
11/15-22/228317

The public is evenly divided on the Court’s 2019 decision that federal courts have no role in adjudicating challenges to partisan gerrymandering. That ruling is favored by 52% and is opposed by 47%.

Perceptions of the ideology of the Court

The perceived ideology of the Court has moved in the conservative direction since 2019, with 61% in November 2022 saying the Court is very conservative or conservative, compared to 38% in September 2019. The percentage seeing the Court as moderate has decreased from 50% in 2019 to 32% in November 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: In general, would you describe each of the following as very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal or very liberal? The Supreme Court

Poll datesVery conservativeSomewhat conservativeModerateSomewhat liberalVery liberal
9/3-13/195335093
9/8-15/205305492
7/16-26/2113374261
9/7-16/2116354072
11/1-10/2115353981
1/10-21/2217383582
3/14-24/22153736102
5/9-19/2223333482
7/5-12/2234332173
9/7-14/2229352753
11/15-22/2225363262

Knowledge of the Court

The public varies widely in awareness of the Court and of its decisions. One measure of this is knowledge of which party’s president appointed the majority of the Court. Table 15 shows how this awareness of the makeup of the Court has varied since 2019. Given the prominence of appointments and debates about the Court, it is notable that only a bit more than a third are certain that the majority of justices were appointed by Republicans. On the other hand, nearly three-quarters think that Republican appointees are probably or definitely the majority. The remaining quarter are incorrect as to the majority.

Table 15: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Poll datesDefinitely/Probably Dem majorityProbably Rep majorityDefinitely Rep majority
9/3-13/19275319
9/8-15/20285121
7/16-26/21244530
9/7-16/21254629
11/1-10/21284428
1/10-21/22234433
3/14-24/22284724
5/9-19/22313931
7/5-12/22204040
9/7-14/22224037
11/15-22/22244035

Partisans differ somewhat in their awareness of the Court’s majority, with Republicans more likely than Democrats or independents to think that Democratic appointees form the majority and less certain that their own party appointed the majority. In contrast, Democrats are the most likely to correctly identify the Court majority as Republican appointees.

Table 16: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents? By party identification

(a) In all surveys since 2019

Party IDDefinitely/Probably Dem majorityProbably Rep majorityDefinitely Rep majority
Republican304722
Lean Republican284923
Independent344619
Lean Democrat164736
Democrat204039


(b) In November 2022 survey only

Party IDDefinitely/Probably Dem majorityProbably Rep majorityDefinitely Rep majority
Republican274330
Lean Republican264331
Independent354320
Lean Democrat184339
Democrat183448

Knowledge of the party of the presidents appointing a majority is also related to knowledge of and ability to give a favorable or unfavorable rating for each justice. Table 17 shows the relationship.

Table 17: Number of justices known well enough for respondent to give favorability rating, by knowledge of the Court majority (pooling 2019-2022 surveys)

Know party of the presidents appointing a majorityMedianMean0123456789
Definitely/Probably Dem majority12.44215107664425
Probably Rep majority33.722111111988658
Definitely Rep majority75.9105667109111124

While there are partisan differences in knowledge of the Court majority (i.e., of the party of the presidents who appointed a majority), there are only small differences in knowledge of the justices, with the exception of independents who do not lean (to either party), a group that is also less involved in politics generally.

Table 18: Number of justices known well enough for respondent to give favorability rating, by party identification (pooling 2019-2022 surveys)

Party IDMedianMean0123456789
Republican44.023119881077611
Lean Republican44.127101098877510
Independent12.8421378555348
Lean Democrat44.22389108996711
Democrat44.517111099889713

Author of Dobbs

Few cases in recent decades have received the attention given to the Dobbs decision. One would not imagine that the general public is often aware of which justice authors individual opinions, but given the prominence of this decision, the question seemed worth asking.

Among all respondents, 25% correctly identified Justice Samuel Alito as the author of the opinion for the Court, with 25% incorrectly saying Justice Clarence Thomas was the author. Thomas wrote a concurring opinion. The full set of responses is shown in Table 19. Respondents were asked to “just give your best guess” if they weren’t sure. Note that if respondents simply guessed randomly, we would expect about 11% to pick each justice. Only Chief Justice John Roberts exceeds this “guessing rate,” and by only a single percentage point. The three dissenting justices are all chosen by 6% or less.

Table 19: Which justice wrote the Supreme Court’s opinion in the Dobbs case, this past June, overturning the 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade that had made abortion legal in all 50 states?

ResponsePercent
Samuel Alito25
Amy Coney Barrett9
Stephen Breyer6
Neil Gorsuch5
Elena Kagan2
Brett Kavanaugh11
John Roberts12
Sonia Sotomayor5
Clarence Thomas25

Here, knowledge of the Court majority appointment clearly plays a role in awareness of the author. Table 20 shows presumed author by this knowledge. Among those who erroneously believe the Court majority were appointed by Democratic presidents, or who think a majority were appointed by Republicans but aren’t sure, more think Thomas was the author than think Alito. But among those who are (correctly) sure there is a Republican-appointed majority, 43% say Alito, and 23% say Thomas. While this is not a majority, there is a clear progression of knowledge of the Dobbs authorship in line with general knowledge of the Court.

Table 20: Which justice wrote the Supreme Court’s opinion in the Dobbs case, this past June, overturning the 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade that had made abortion legal in all 50 states? By knowledge of which party’s presidents appointed a Court majority

Knowledge of majoritySamuel AlitoAmy Coney BarrettStephen BreyerNeil GorsuchElena KaganBrett KavanaughJohn RobertsSonia SotomayorClarence Thomas
Definitely/Probably Dem majority131484212151319
Probably Rep majority1787721411431
Definitely Rep majority436331811123

A large share of the public says it has “heard a lot” about the Court’s Dobbs decision, and this has remained at high levels since July, as shown in Table 21.

 

Table 21: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court decision on abortion.

Poll datesA lotA littleNothing at all
7/5-12/2281153
9/7-14/2284133
11/15-22/2276203

In contrast with the abortion ruling, the amount of news that respondents have heard concerning the Second Amendment ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen has decreased substantially since July, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court decision on the right to possess a gun outside the home.

Poll datesA lotA littleNothing at all
7/5-12/22473616
9/7-14/22314821
11/15-22/22254728

Much of the public says it has heard little or nothing about the pending cases concerning consideration of race in college admissions. Arguments were heard on Oct. 31.

Table 23: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions.

Poll datesA lotA littleNothing at all
11/15-22/22204534

Awareness of issues before the Court, or recently decided cases, thus varies considerably depending on the topic. For further comparison, awareness of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is shown in Table 24 (a), and awareness of the Jan. 6th committee hearings is shown in Table 24 (b).

Table 24: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hearings of the House Select Committee on January 6th.

(a) Russian invasion of Ukraine

Poll datesA lotA littleNothing at all
11/15-22/2270237

(b) January 6th committee hearings

Poll datesA lotA littleNothing at all
7/5-12/22433819
9/7-14/22523118
11/15-22/22433719

The public has come to think that the Court should pay more attention to public opinion in reaching its decisions than was the case in September 2020, when 44% said the Court should consider public opinion and 55% said it should not. In the current survey, two years later, 61% say public opinion should be considered and 39% say it should not be considered. The trend is shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Should justices of the Supreme Court consider public opinion about a case when making decisions or should they ignore public opinion?

Poll datesShould consider public opinionShould ignore public opinion
9/8-15/204455
9/7-16/214159
7/5-12/225446
9/7-14/226139
11/15-22/226139

Support for increasing the size of the Supreme Court has been narrowly divided for some time. In September, a slight majority favored adding justices, but in November, the slight majority favors keeping the current number of justices.

Table 26: How much do you favor or oppose a proposal to increase the number of justices on the U.S. Supreme Court?

Poll datesStrongly favorSomewhat favorSomewhat opposeStrongly oppose
9/3-13/198353917
9/8-15/2010363914
7/16-26/2112362823
9/7-16/2116322031
11/1-10/2115332329
7/5-12/2217322229
9/7-14/2218332029
11/15-22/2213342528

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has declined since 2019, when 37% had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. That declined to 30% who have similar confidence in November 2022. Those with very little or no confidence increased from 20% in September 2019 to 33% in November 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 27.

 

Table 27: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The U.S. Supreme Court.

Poll datesA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
9/3-13/1982942164
9/8-15/20122845133
7/5-12/22919282816
9/7-14/221020342610
11/15-22/22822362310

Respondents were also surveyed on confidence in the state supreme court where they live (or the highest court in the state). Results for confidence in their state’s highest court are not much different than for confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court, although more people pick the middle category of “some confidence.” Views of state courts have not changed much since 2019, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Your state Supreme Court or highest court in your state

Poll datesA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
9/3-13/1952746175
9/8-15/2082747144
9/7-14/2282745156
11/15-22/2292740177

The most common view of Congress is “some” confidence, at 43%. Few respondents express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress, a combined 17%. While this is a long-running finding, there has been a small decline in those with “very little” or no confidence at all, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Congress

Poll datesA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
9/3-13/1928393813
9/8-15/20310423510
7/5-12/2237354016
9/7-14/22412373512
11/15-22/22314432911

Confidence in state legislatures is slightly better than for Congress. Twenty-eight percent say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in their legislature, compared to just 17% saying the same of Congress. Thirty percent say they have little or no confidence in their legislatures versus 40% who say the same of Congress. As with Congress, the most common response to legislatures is “some” confidence, at 42%, shown in Table 30.

 

Table 30: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Your state legislature

Poll datesA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
11/15-22/2242442237

Confidence in the presidency is shown in Table 31. The percentage with no confidence has declined since 2020, with some increase in the “some confidence” category, and modest fluctuations in the other categories.

Table 31: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The Presidency

Poll datesA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
9/3-13/191315252224
9/8-15/201516232025
7/5-12/22614313018
9/7-14/221320292414
11/15-22/221218332314

Views of two law enforcement institutions, the police and the FBI, are similar, but partisan differences are pronounced. Table 32 shows confidence in the police and Table 33 reflects confidence in the FBI, which is not as high as for the police.

Table 32: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The police

Poll datesA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
9/8-15/20202932126
9/7-14/22213028146
11/15-22/22183130157

Table 33: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The FBI

Poll datesA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
9/7-14/221925301610
11/15-22/221327341711

Partisan views are distinct concerning the police and the FBI. Republicans are more positive to the police and less so to the FBI, while Democrats are more positive to the FBI and less positive to the police, as shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The police, the FBI by party identification

(a) The police, by party identification

Party IDA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
Republican35372071
Independent928331811
Democrat142836166

(b) The FBI, by party identification

Party IDA great dealQuite a lotSomeVery littleNone at all
Republican919302516
Independent923371812
Democrat21373273

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey (more generally about political topics) are held for a separate release tomorrow (Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022).

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about cases before the Court in the October 2022 Term include:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of Dobbs decisions, striking down Roe v. Wade

Opinion of ruling that the Second Amendment protects the right to possess a gun outside the home

Opinion on ruling the federal courts have no role in adjudicating challenges to gerrymandering

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

Opinion of decision that anti-discrimination laws protect LGBTQ people:

In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?