Poll Release

New Marquette Law School Poll finds strong support for coronavirus closings, even as it shows substantial economic impact

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds strong support for government actions to control the coronavirus pandemic, even as the poll also shows these actions to be having a substantial financial impact on voters.

Eighty-six percent say that it was appropriate to close schools and businesses, and restrict public gatherings, while 10 percent say that this was an overreaction to the pandemic. Fifty-one percent strongly approve of legislation providing direct cash payments to individuals, and 28 percent somewhat approve, while 9 percent somewhat disapprove and 6 percent strongly disapprove.

A large majority of voters approve of Gov. Tony Evers’ handling of the coronavirus issue, with 76 percent saying they approve and 17 percent saying they disapprove. A majority, 51 percent, approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the pandemic, while 46 percent disapprove.

The economic impact is clear in this poll with 9 percent saying they have lost a job or been laid off. An additional 21 percent say someone else in the family has lost employment. Sixty-eight percent say there has not been a job loss in the family.

Work hours have been reduced for 22 percent of respondents. A further 29 percent say someone else in the family has had work hours reduced while 48 percent say no one in their family has had hours reduced.

Twenty-six percent say they have had to work from home. An additional 30 percent say someone else in the family has begun to work from home while 43 percent say no one in the family has been required to work from home.

Fifty-seven percent say their life has been disrupted a lot by the coronavirus epidemic and 28 percent say it has been disrupted some, while 12 percent say only a little and 3 percent say there has been no disruption at all.

The poll was conducted March 24-29, 2020. The sample included 813 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

Seventy-six percent say they are following the news about coronavirus very closely, and 22 percent are following the news somewhat closely. One percent are following the news not very closely, and 1 percent are not following coronavirus news at all.

Concern about the coronavirus pandemic itself is also high, with 68 percent saying they are very concerned about the epidemic in the United States, 25 percent saying they are somewhat concerned, 5 percent saying they are not very concerned and 2 percent saying they are not at all concerned.

With respect to both the risk of contracting and the seriousness of the coronavirus illness, 30 percent say they are very worried about getting the illness and 40 percent are somewhat worried, while 18 percent are not very worried and 11 percent say they are not at all worried.

Forty-four percent think the coronavirus outbreak will be under control by the end of May, 27 percent say by the end of August, and 11 percent say it will be under control sometime next fall. Seven percent say it will take about a year and 2 percent say it will take more than a year to control the epidemic.

Sixty-two percent think the Democratic National Convention, scheduled to meet in Milwaukee in July, should not be held as an in-person event, while 22 percent say it should meet as planned.

Opinion is divided on holding the April 7 spring election as scheduled, with 51 percent saying the date should be moved and 44 percent saying it should be held as scheduled.

Difference in opinion by partisanship

There is strong support for school and business closures across party lines, though Democrats are more supportive than are Republicans.

Approval of how Tony Evers has handled the coronavirus outbreak is high across partisan groups though there remain differences.

Approval of how Donald Trump has handled the coronavirus epidemic is sharply partisan.

Concern over coronavirus in the U.S. reflects significant partisan differences, despite high overall concern.

Democratic presidential primary

Since the last Marquette Law School poll in February, the Democratic primary field has shrunk to two candidates, Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Table 5 shows how support for each candidate has changed each month since November 2019. Biden held a small lead in November through January, while Sanders moved into first place in February. Those results are much different in the March poll, with Biden at 62 percent and Sanders at 34 percent. Among those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, or have already voted, in the Democratic primary, Biden receives 65 percent and Sanders 32 percent. Given the uncertainty created by historically high levels of absentee voting and the unknown levels of election day turnout, these findings should be viewed with more than the usual caution.

Democratic presidential primary preference items were asked of those who said they will vote in the Democratic primary in April. That sample size is 394, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

General election matchups

General election matchups between Trump and both Democratic candidates indicate a very close race. In the March poll, Biden receives 48 percent and Trump receives 45 percent. In the other matchup, Sanders is the choice of 45 percent and Trump the choice of 47 percent.

The full trend in general election support is shown in Table 6 for Biden vs. Trump and in Table 7 for Sanders vs. Trump.

Health care policy

Support for a “Medicare for all policy,” which would provide a single government program for all health coverage, has declined from October to March, as shown in Table 8.

There has been no change in support for a government-provided public option in competition with private insurance, as shown in Table 9. (Strength of support was not measured in October, so only support and opposition are shown in the table for comparability.)

Trump Job Approval

Forty-eight percent of Wisconsin voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, with 49 percent disapproving. That is little changed from February, when 48 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved.

Trump’s recent job approval trend is shown in Table 10.

Trump’s job approval is high among Republicans and low among Democrats, with a majority of independents approving, as shown in Table 11.

Fifty-four percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 41 percent disapprove. In February, 56 percent approved and 41 percent disapproved.

The trend in approval of Trump’s handling of the economy is shown in Table 12.

The trend in foreign policy approval is shown in Table 13.

Economic outlook

Despite the coronavirus-induced economic downturn, Wisconsin registered voters hold a positive view of the performance of the economy over the past 12 months, with 41 percent saying the economy has improved over the past year, 31 percent saying it has worsened, and 25 percent saying it has stayed the same. The net (the “better” total minus the “worse” total) turned sharply down in March, however. The trend in economic evaluations since the start of 2019 is shown in Table 14.

Voters remain optimistic about the economy over the next year. Forty-four percent say the economy will improve, while 34 percent think it will get worse and 13 percent say the economy will remain the same. Both positive and negative expectations rose in March, leaving a net positive outlook. The trend in economic outlook is shown in Table 15.

The overall picture for family financial situations has slightly worsened in March, with a small decline in the percent living comfortably and a small increase in those who say they are struggling. In light of the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak measured above, it is very likely that the full impact of this economic shock has not yet been fully felt by respondents. The trend in this measure is shown in Table 16.

State of the state

In the new poll, 61 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 30 percent say it has gotten off on the wrong track. This is a notable rise in the right-direction percentage, perhaps reflecting the positive reaction, seen above, to measures taken to confront the coronavirus pandemic.

The trend in opinion is shown in Table 17.

Evers job approval

Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 65 percent, with disapproval at 29 percent. Six percent say they don’t have an opinion. This is a sharp rise. In February, 51 percent approved and 38 percent disapproved.

The trend in job approval of the governor is shown in Table 18.

Table 19 presents the favorability ratings of three elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 813 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, March 24-29, 2020. The margin of error is +/-4.2 percentage points for the full sample.

The Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary. That sample size is 394, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points. The margin of error for those Democratic primary voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote or have already voted is +/-6.6 percentage points based on 315 cases.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 46 percent Republican, 46 percent Democratic and 7 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 29 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 39 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship excluding those who lean has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Sanders’ support rising among Democrats and tight races between Trump and each Democratic candidate for president

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds that Sen. Bernie Sanders leads in the Democratic primary with support from 29 percent of those saying they will take part in the April 7 voting. Of the six Marquette polls conducted since August 2019, this is the first in which Sanders has held the top spot.

Mayor Mike Bloomberg is supported by 17 percent, and Vice President Joe Biden is the first choice of 15 percent. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 13 percent, Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at 11 percent, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren is at 9 percent.

In January, Sanders was the choice of 19 percent, Bloomberg held 6 percent and Biden held first place with 23 percent.

The complete results for first and second choices in the Democratic primary are shown in Table 1.

Table 1: First and second choice in the Democratic primary (among Democratic primary voters)

Table 2 shows how support for each candidate has changed each month since November 2019. Support for Sanders has increased while support for Biden has declined. After entering the race in the late fall, Bloomberg rose to second place in February. Klobuchar’s support has more than doubled her support from January, while Warren has declined over the past four months.

Table 2: First choice in the Democratic primary, Nov.-Feb. (among Democratic primary voters)

Fifty-six percent of Democratic primary voters say they might change their minds about their primary choice, while 42 percent say their mind is made up. Table 3 shows that Democratic primary voters have become more certain of their primary preferences since November.

Table 3: Have voters made up their mind for president? (among Democratic primary voters)

The poll was conducted Feb. 19-23, 2020. The sample included 1000 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Democratic presidential primary preference items were asked of those who said they will vote in the Democratic primary in April. That sample size is 490, with a margin of error of +/-5.1 percentage points.

Among the Democratic primary sample, the percentage of those saying they have favorable or unfavorable opinions of each candidate is shown in Table 4. Bloomberg, despite his second place standing in vote preference, is the only primary candidate with more unfavorable than favorable ratings among Democratic primary voters. Elizabeth Warren holds the third-highest favorable rating, despite her sixth place standing in vote preference.

Table 4: Favorability ratings of six candidates among Democratic primary sample

Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as liberal or very liberal are more likely to support Sanders or Warren than those who describe themselves as moderate or conservative, as seen in Table 5. The reverse pattern holds for Bloomberg and Biden, each of whom does better with moderate or conservative primary voters than with more liberal ones. Buttigieg and Klobuchar draw support more evenly across ideological identities.

In this sample, 56 percent of Democratic primary voters described themselves as moderate or conservative while 41 percent considered themselves liberal or very liberal.

Table 5: Primary choice by voter ideology among Democratic primary voters.

Sanders has consistently received more support from younger voters than from older ones. That pattern continues to hold in the February data, but he has increased support across all age groups since the January poll, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Sanders support by age

Table 7 shows that Sanders, Bloomberg, Klobuchar and Warren each do a little better among those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in the Democratic primary than among those who are not so certain they will vote. Biden does substantially less well among those certain to vote than with those less likely to do so. Buttigieg is also slightly weaker among the most likely to vote.

Table 7: Primary choice by likelihood of voting in primary among Democratic primary voters

Respondents were asked how likely they were “to vote in the April 7 election for state Supreme Court, presidential primaries, and other offices” and were asked in a separate question in which presidential primary they would participate.

The likelihood of voting on April 7 is shown by party identification in Table 8. Democrats are a little more likely than Republicans to say they are certain to vote, with independents least certain of participating.

Table 8: Likelihood of voting April 7 by party identification

Of those who say they are certain to vote, a majority say they will vote in the Democratic primary, while just over a third say they will vote in the Republican primary, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Vote in which primary by likelihood of voting April 7

While most partisans say they will participate in their own party’s primary, about 10 percent of Republicans say they will vote in the Democratic presidential primary, while no Democrats say they will cross over to the Republican primary, as in Table 10 (President Donald J. Trump is the only candidate listed on the Republican primary ballot. Crossover voting is permitted in Wisconsin.). About a third of independents say they will vote in the Democratic primary, though more say either they won’t vote or don’t know which primary they might vote in.

Table 10: Vote in which primary April 7 by party identification

“Electability” has been a topic of discussion for primary voters. We asked respondents, “Regardless of who you think would win, which of the current Democratic candidates do you think would run the strongest race against Donald Trump in November’s presidential election?” Responses by party identification are shown in Table 11.

Among Democrats, Sanders is seen as the strongest against Trump, with Bloomberg and Biden a distant second and third. Republicans see Bloomberg as the strongest, closely followed by Sanders with Biden a distant third. Independents give similar responses to Republicans, although they rate Biden as a weaker candidate than do Republicans.

Table 11: Who would be the strongest Democrat against Trump in the general election?

General-election matchups

General-election matchups between Trump and six Democratic candidates all indicate very close races. Sanders holds a two-percentage point edge over Trump while Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar tie with Trump. Bloomberg trails Trump by one point and Warren trails by three points. Each of these margins is well within the margin of error for this poll. Table 12 presents the matchups.

Table 12: General-election matchups

Trends in the matchups since August are shown in Tables 13-18. The matchup with Buttigieg was not asked in August. Klobuchar was asked only in November (half-sample) and February. The matchup with Bloomberg was first asked in February.

Table 13: Biden vs. Trump trend
Table 14: Bloomberg vs. Trump
Table 15: Buttigieg vs. Trump trend
Table 16: Klobuchar vs. Trump trend
Table 17: Sanders vs. Trump trend
Table 18: Warren vs Trump trend

Favorability of Trump and six Democrats among all registered voters is shown in Table 19. The Democratic candidates are all less favorably perceived than is Trump. With the exception of Klobuchar, all candidates have more unfavorable than favorable evaluations among all registered voters.

Table 19: Favorability ratings of Trump and six Democratic candidates among all registered voters

Favorability varies strongly by party identification, with partisans holding sharply negative views of candidates of the other party. Democrats are more divided over some of their potential nominees and some Democrat candidates remain less well known even among Democratic partisans. Tables 20-26 show favorability by party identification for each candidate. (Democrats in these tables includes all those who identify as Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, while favorability among Democratic primary voters above includes independents and Republicans planning to vote in the Democratic primary and excludes those who do not intend to vote in the primary.)

Table 20: Trump favorable or unfavorable views by party ID
Table 21: Sanders favorable or unfavorable views by party ID
Table 22: Biden favorable or unfavorable views by party ID
Table 23: Warren favorable or unfavorable views by party ID
Table 24: Buttigieg favorable or unfavorable views by party ID
Table 25: Klobuchar favorable or unfavorable views by party ID
Table 26: Bloomberg favorable or unfavorable views by party ID

Trump job approval

Forty-eight percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president, with 48 percent also disapproving. This is the first Marquette Law School Poll since Trump took office in which Trump’s disapproval is not higher than his approval. In January, 48 percent approved and 49 percent disapproved.

Trump’s job approval trend is shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Trump job approval trend
Table 27: Trump job approval trend
(continued)

Trump’s job approval is extremely high among Republicans, extremely low among Democrats and split among independents and those who lean to a party, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Trump job approval by party identification

Fifty-six percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 41 percent disapprove. In December, 55 percent approved and 42 percent disapproved.

 The trend in approval of Trump’s handling of the economy is shown in table 29.

Table 29: Approval of Trump’s handling of the economy trend

The trend in foreign policy approval is shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Approval of Trump’s handling of foreign policy

Opinions about impeachment

Views about Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine changed very little following the U.S. Senate vote not to convict Trump based on impeachment counts approved by the U.S. House of Representatives. In the new results, forty-one percent say that Trump did something seriously wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, 13 percent say he did something wrong but not seriously so and 36 percent say Trump did nothing wrong. Nine percent say they don’t know. In January, 40 percent said he did something seriously wrong, 14 percent said it was wrong but not serious and 37 percent said he did nothing wrong.

The trend in views of Trump’s dealing with Ukraine is shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Did Trump do something wrong in his dealing with Ukraine

Following the Senate vote to acquit Trump, 42 percent say the Senate should have convicted Trump and removed him from office, while 52 percent say the Senate should have acquitted him of the charges. Five percent say they don’t know. These views are little changed from the January poll which asked, before the Senate proceedings, what the Senate should do. Tables 32 and 33 show the results for January and February respectively.

Table 32: Should Senate vote to remove
Table 33: Should Senate have voted to remove

National policy issues

With the presidential election on the horizon, we asked about two social issues that divide the parties and are often subject of campaign debate.

Opinions about abortion have been a longstanding issue in elections and legislation. In the current February poll, 18 percent say abortions should be legal in all circumstances, with 37 percent saying it should be legal in most circumstances. Twenty-two percent say it should be illegal in most circumstances, while 15 percent say it should be illegal in all circumstances. The full trend for this question is shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Abortion position

Views of same-sex marriage have changed considerably over time. The recent trend in Wisconsin, shown in Table 35, shows over two-thirds support for the legal status of same-sex marriage, with about a quarter continuing to oppose it.

Table 35: View of same-sex marriage

What United States policy should be regarding undocumented immigrants already in the country is another long-running issue. Table 36 shows the trend in opinion on this issue. Over time, there has been majority support for a policy allowing a path to citizenship and this majority has grown in recent years.

The number of those who believe that undocumented immigrants should be required to leave the United States has modestly declined over time.

Table 36: What to do with undocumented

Free-trade agreements have been a focus of recent policy, with the recent adoption of the United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement to replace NAFTA. The percentage who see free-trade agreements as good for the United States has grown in recent years, as shown in Table 37.

Table 37: Free trade agreements

Views of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, have remained about evenly divided since 2017, as shown in Table 38.

Table 38: Opinion of ACA/Obamacare

A proposed “Medicare for all” program in which all Americans would receive health coverage through a single government-run Medicare program divides the public, with 46 percent strongly or somewhat in favor of such a program and 51 percent strongly or somewhat opposed. Opposition has risen from 41 percent in October 2018, as shown in Table 39.

Table 39: Medicare for all by poll dates

An alternative to Medicare for all is the so-called “public option” in which government medical coverage would compete with private insurance and be available for any who chose to sign up for the government alternative. Sixty-one percent support a public option, with 32 percent opposed. The trend is shown in Table 40.

Table 40: Public option

State issues

Voters see the state budget as stable, with 48 percent saying the budget is in about the same shape as in recent years, as shown in Table 41. Eighteen percent say it is in better shape, and 20 percent say it is in worse shape, than in recent years.

Table 41: State budget better, same, or worse

More than half, 56 percent, say it is more important to increase spending on public schools than it is to reduce property taxes, while 38 percent say reducing property taxes is more important. Support for increased school spending peaked in early 2018, while support for cutting property taxes was at its highest in 2013, as shown in Table 42.

Table 42: Cut property taxes or provide more funding for public schools

A majority of respondents, 57 percent, say that they would be inclined to vote for a local referendum that raised taxes to support public schools, while 34 percent would be inclined to vote against it. This is little changed since the question was last asked in 2016, as shown in Table 43. These results are statewide and are not connected to any specific referendum.

Table 43: Support or oppose referendum to raise taxes for public schools

Voters favor a non-partisan approach to redistricting over the current process in which the legislature and governor are responsible for drawing legislative and congressional districts. This item was also asked in January 2019, as shown in Table 44.

Table 44: Redistricting by governor and legislature or by non-partisan commission

Economic outlook and issues

Wisconsin registered voters hold a positive view of the performance of the economy over the past 12 months, with 47 percent saying the economy has improved over the past year, 15 percent saying it has worsened and 36 percent saying it has stayed the same. The trend in economic evaluations is shown in Table 45.

Table 45: Economic evaluation of past year

Looking ahead to the next year, 36 percent say the economy will improve, while 21 percent think it will get worse and 37 percent say the economy will remain the same. The trend in economic outlook is shown in Table 46.

Table 46: Economic outlook for next year
Table 46: Economic outlook for next year (continued)

Respondents are asked each survey about their family’s financial situation. In February, 62 percent said they are “living comfortably,” while 29 percent said they are “just getting by,” and 8 percent said they are “struggling.” This trend is shown in Table 47.

Table 47: Family financial situation by poll date

State of the state

In February, 52 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 39 percent say it has gotten off on the wrong track. The trend in opinion is shown in Table 48.

Table 48: Right direction or on wrong track trend

Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 51 percent, with disapproval at 38 percent. Ten percent say they don’t have an opinion. The trend in job approval of Evers is shown in Table 49.

Table 49: Evers’ job approval trend

Approval of the state legislature’s handling of its job stands at 46 percent with disapproval at 40 percent. Thirteen percent say they don’t have an opinion.

Table 50: Approval of legislature trend

Table 51 presents the favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

Table 51: Favorability ratings of governor and senators

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from Feb. 19-23, 2020. The margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points for the full sample.

The Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary. That sample size is 464, with a margin of error of +/-5.1 percentage points.

Three questions were asked of half the sample (Form A), and three were asked of the other half-sample (Form B). Questions on Form A have a sample size of 500 and a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a sample size of 500 and a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points.

Form A questions were approval of the state legislature, condition of the state budget and how to conduct redistricting. Form B questions concerned abortion, undocumented immigrants, and same-sex marriage.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 44 percent Democratic and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 31 percent Republican, 29 percent Democratic and 39 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45 percent Republican and 44 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship, excluding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 28 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

New Marquette Law School Poll finds majorities of Wisconsin voters disapprove of Trump foreign policy and killing of Iranian general

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds 61 percent saying Iran and the United States are likely to avoid a major military conflict following the U.S. drone attack that killed an Iranian general and an Iranian missile attack on bases in Iraq where U.S. troops are stationed. Thirty percent believe that a major military conflict is likely and 8 percent say they don’t know.

Forty-three percent agree with the statement, “It’s about time that the U.S. struck back against Iran,” while 51 percent disagree and 5 percent say they don’t know.

In the wake of the military exchange between the United States and Iran, 44 percent approve of President Donald J. Trump’s handling of foreign policy and 53 percent disapprove, with 2 percent saying they don’t know. In December, 43 percent approved and 54 percent disapproved.

The trend in opinion of Trump’s foreign policy is shown in Table 1.

The poll was conducted Jan. 8-12, 2020. The sample included 800 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Democratic presidential primary preference items were asked of those who said they will vote in the Democratic primary in April. That sample size is 358, with a margin of error of +/- 6.3 percentage points.

Democratic presidential primary candidates

With less than a month remaining until the Iowa caucuses, the top four Democratic primary candidates in Wisconsin remain former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Among those who say they will vote in the Democratic presidential primary in April, Biden is the first choice of 23 percent, followed by Sanders at 19 percent, Buttigieg at 15 percent, and Warren at 14 percent. Michael Bloomberg and Andrew Yang are the first choice of 6 percent each.

The complete results for the Democratic primary are shown in Table 2.

Three-fifths of Democratic primary voters, 60 percent, say they might change their minds about their primary choice, while 38 percent say their minds are made up.

Among the Democratic primary sample, favorability of candidates is shown in Table 3.

General election matchups

General election matchups between Trump and four Democratic candidates all indicate very close races.

A summary of the general election results for January is shown in Table 4. For comparison, the December results are shown in Table 5 and the November results in Table 6.

Trump Job Approval

Forty-eight percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president, with 49 percent disapproving. That is little changed from December, when 47 percent approved and 50 percent disapproved. This is the first time Trump’s disapproval has fallen below 50 percent in the Marquette Law School Poll since March 2017 when 47 percent disapproved.

Trump’s job approval trend is shown in Table 7.

Trump’s job approval is high among Republicans, is low among Democrats, and is split among independents as shown in Table 8.

Fifty-five percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 42 percent disapprove. In December, 53 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved.

The trend in approval or disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy is shown in table 9.

Opinions about impeachment

Views about Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine also changed very little following public testimony and the vote by the U.S. House of Representatives in favor of impeachment.

Forty percent say that Trump did something seriously wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, 14 percent say he did something wrong but not seriously so, and 37 percent say Trump did nothing wrong. Nine percent say they don’t know. In December, 42 percent said he did something seriously wrong, 9 percent said it was wrong but not serious, and 37 percent said he did nothing wrong.

The trend in views of Trump’s dealing with Ukraine is shown in Table 10.

Forty-seven percent approve of the House of Representatives’ vote to impeach Trump, while 49 percent disapprove and 3 percent say they don’t know.

Asked about the upcoming Senate trial, 44 percent say the Senate should convict Trump and remove him from office, while 49 percent say the Senate should acquit him of the charges. Six percent say they don’t know.

In December, prior to the House impeachment vote, a different question asked if Trump should be impeached and removed from office or not. Forty percent said he should be impeached and removed, 52 percent said he should not be, and 6 percent said they did not know.

National policy issues

Just over four in 10 respondents, 41 percent, say that global warming will cause a great deal of harm to people in the United States, with 21 percent saying it will cause a moderate amount of harm. Sixteen percent say it will cause only a little harm and 19 percent say it will cause no harm at all, while 2 percent say they don’t know.

Thirty-five percent say that the number of legal immigrants into the United States should be increased, 41 percent say it should remain the same and 20 percent say it should be reduced. Four percent say they don’t know.

Over one-third of respondents, 37 percent, say that tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, while 32 percent say tariffs help the economy, 24 percent say they don’t make any difference, and 7 percent say they don’t know. The trend in views of tariffs is shown in Table 11.

Twenty-six percent believe the U.S. and North Korea will reach an agreement on reducing nuclear weapons in the next year or two, with 65 percent saying they don’t think an agreement will be reached and 9 percent saying they don’t know. In October, 24 percent thought an agreement would be reached and 66 percent thought it would not.

Cynicism about government

Almost half, 48 percent, strongly agree that the government is run by a few big interests and 32 percent say they somewhat agree. Thirteen percent somewhat disagree and 6 strongly disagree. The trend in this view of the government is shown in Table 12.

About two-thirds, 64 percent, strongly agree that the government wastes a lot of money collected in taxes, with 24 percent somewhat agreeing, 8 percent somewhat disagreeing, and 2 percent strongly disagreeing. The trend in this question is shown in Table 13.

More than half of respondents say you can’t trust the government to do what is right, with 26 percent saying they strongly agree and 38 percent saying they somewhat agree. Twenty-three percent say they somewhat disagree and 9 percent strongly disagree. The trend for this question is shown in Table 14.

Asked about the FBI, 33 percent say they have a great deal of confidence in the FBI, 39 percent have some confidence, 18 percent have only a little, and 8 percent say they have no confidence at all. This trend is shown in Table 15.

Racial prejudice

One-third of respondents, 34 percent, say that racial prejudice against black people is a very serious problem, with 38 percent saying it is somewhat serious. Seventeen percent say it is a not so serious problem and 9 percent say it is not a problem at all.

Prejudice against Hispanic or Latino people is seen as a very serious problem by 29 percent, as a somewhat serious problem by 36 percent, as a not so serious problem by 19 percent, and as not a problem at all by 12 percent.

State issues

Thirty-five percent say that Foxconn will be worth the money the state provides in incentives to the company, while 46 percent say the state is paying more than the plant is worth and 19 percent say they don’t know. There have been only modest shifts in views of Foxconn since the project was announced, as shown in Table 16.

A majority of respondents are very satisfied (15 percent) or satisfied (44 percent) with the public schools in their community, while 22 percent say they are dissatisfied and 11 percent are very dissatisfied. The percentage of those very satisfied has declined from 23 percent in 2012, while those dissatisfied have increased from 17 percent, as shown in Table 17.

More than half, 55 percent, say it is more important to increase spending on public schools than it is to reduce property taxes, while 41 percent say reducing property taxes is more important. Since 2013, support for increased school spending peaked in early 2018, while support for cutting property taxes was at its height in early 2013, as shown in Table 18.

Over two-thirds of respondents, 70 percent, favor “Wisconsin’s current law allowing residents to obtain a license to carry concealed handguns,” while 25 percent oppose it. When previously asked in January 2016, 63 percent favored and 31 percent opposed the law.

In 2012, shortly after the state’s current law went into effect in late 2011, a question with a different wording showed a much more narrow division. That question asked, “Do you favor or oppose legalizing possession of concealed weapons?” Responses to that question are shown in Table 19.

Economic outlook and issues

Wisconsin registered voters hold a positive view of the performance of the economy over the past 12 months, with 48 percent saying the economy has improved over the past year, 17 percent saying it has worsened, and 33 percent saying it has stayed the same. The trend in economic evaluations of the past year is shown in Table 20.

Looking ahead to the next year, 33 percent say the economy will improve, while 23 percent think it will get worse and 37 percent say the economy will remain the same. The trend in economic outlook is shown in Table 21.

Evaluation of state elected officials

Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 51 percent, with disapproval at 40 percent. Nine percent say they don’t have an opinion. In December, 50 percent approved, while 38 percent disapproved. The trend in job approval of the governor is shown in Table 22.

In January, 46 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 47 percent say it has gotten off on the wrong track. This is a shift from 2019 when a majority said the state was headed in the right direction, as shown in Table 23.

Table 24 presents the favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone Jan. 8-12, 2020. The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points for the full sample.

The Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of Democrats, independents who lean Democratic, and independents who do not lean to either party. That sample size is 358 with a margin of error of +/- 6.3 percentage points.

Four questions were asked of half the sample (Form A) and four were asked of the other half-sample (Form B). Questions on Form A have a sample size of 400 and a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a sample size of 400 and a margin of error of +/- 5.8 percentage points.

Form A questions were right direction or wrong track for the state, satisfaction with public schools, concealed carry, and Foxconn. Form B questions were the effect of global warming, legal immigration, the effect of tariffs on the economy, and whether the United States and North Korea will agree to limits on nuclear arms.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 47 percent Republican, 43 percent Democratic and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 28 percent Republican, 26 percent Democratic, and 44 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45 percent Republican and 44 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship, excluding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 28 percent Democratic, with 41 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.