Also:

• Trump’s overall approval continues decline, down to 38%
• His approval on handling the economy sinks to 30%, and to 22% on inflation and the cost of living
• 95% say gas prices are up, with 19% approving of how Trump is handling them
• 18% say the U.S. has achieved its goals in Iran and 28% say the war has been worth the cost
• Public now says Democrats are better able to handle the economy and inflation than Republicans
• Democratic lead shrinks on generic congressional ballot

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that President Donald Trump retains strong influence with voters in Republican primary elections, as seen in recent primaries in Indiana, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Texas, where Trump-backed candidates defeated Republican incumbents opposed by Trump. Among all Republicans, 71% said they would vote for a primary candidate Trump endorsed, while 20% would vote for an incumbent Republican Trump opposed.

But the poll finds that Trump’s overall support continues to decline, as does support of his positions on some major issues.

Trump’s influence is greatest with Republicans who are favorable to the MAGA movement, 87% of whom would vote for a Trump endorsed primary candidate, while just 9% would vote for a Republican incumbent Trump opposed. In contrast, among the 28% of Republicans who are not favorable to MAGA, 30% would vote for the Trump-supported primary candidate and 48% would vote for the Republican incumbent opposed by Trump. An additional 22% say they would not vote in such a GOP primary, thus further enhancing Trump’s electoral impact.

Trump’s influence within the Republican electorate is also seen in his job approval. Among the 72% of Republicans favorable to MAGA, 93% approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while among the 28% of Republicans not favorable to MAGA, Trump’s approval falls to 36%.

The survey was conducted May 20-26, 2026, interviewing 1,001 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. For Republicans, the sample size is 413, with a margin of error of +/-5.3. For Democrats, the sample size is 435, with a margin of error of +/-5.2. For registered voters, the sample size is 857, with a margin of error of +/-3.6. For likely voters, the sample size is 576, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points.

Attention to news about recent GOP primaries with Trump-endorsed challengers to Republican incumbents is not notably high, with 29% saying they heard or read a lot about these primaries. Among all Republicans, 29% heard a lot, 34% heard a little, and 38% heard nothing at all. Attention was slightly higher among MAGA Republicans, 31% of whom heard a lot, compared to 23% among non-MAGA Republicans. Democrats were more likely to say they heard a lot about these primaries than were Republicans, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Attention to GOP primary outcomes, by party identification & MAGA

Among adults

Party & MAGA	Attention to GOP primaries
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Among all adults	29	34	37
Republican, MAGA	31	35	34
Republican, Non-MAGA	23	29	47
Independent	15	34	51
Democrat	35	34	31
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey May 20-26, 2026
Question: [Republican incumbents who Trump opposed were defeated in Republican primaries in Indiana, Louisiana and Kentucky by candidates Trump endorsed] Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Trump’s strength within the Republican electorate contrasts with his declining approval among all adults. In this May poll, 38% approve of how he is handling his job as president, while 62% disapprove, a net approval of -24 percentage points. At the start of his second term as president in February 2025, 48% approved and 52% disapproved, for a net approval of -4 percentage points. The decline in approval has been small from month-to-month but has been steady over the past 16 months. This has led to a cumulative decline in net approval of 20 points, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Trump job approval in second term

Among adults

Poll dates	Net approve minus disapprove	Approve	Disapprove
5/20-26/26	-24	38	62
4/8-16/26	-21	39	60
1/21-28/26	-16	42	58
11/5-12/25	-14	43	57
9/15-24/25	-14	43	57
7/7-16/25	-10	45	55
5/5-15/25	-8	46	54
3/17-27/25	-8	46	54
1/27-2/6/25	-4	48	52
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Approval of Trump’s handling of specific issues illustrates both relative strength and relative weakness, with net approval ranging from -4 for handling of border security to -62 for handling of gasoline prices. The best issues for Trump are border security and immigration, though both are now net negative in approval. This May survey is the first time border security has been in negative territory in the second term, down from a net +5 in April, while net approval on immigration was unchanged since April.

Approval of handling the economy slipped to 30% in May, down from 32% in April, and approval of Trump’s handling of inflation slipped to 22% from 24% in April. Approval on handling gasoline prices is 19% in May, with 81% disapproving. This is the first time the poll asked specifically about gasoline prices. Handling of the war with Iran receives a 33% approval rating and handling of tariffs 32% approval, both lower than Trump’s overall approval rating of 38%. Approval across all issues is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Trump job approval across issues

Among adults

Issue	Net approve minus disapprove	Approve	Disapprove
Border security	-4	48	52
Immigration	-12	44	56
Overall	-24	38	62
Foreign policy	-24	38	62
The war with Iran	-34	33	67
Tariffs	-35	32	67
The economy	-40	30	70
Inflation/cost of living	-56	22	78
Gasoline prices	-62	19	81
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 20-26, 2026
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues?

Trump’s approval within partisan categories also varies considerably across issues. Among Republicans, approval ranges from 87% for his handling of border security to 45% for inflation and 38% for gasoline prices. Among independents, approval on border security reaches 40% and 33% on immigration, while all other issues have approval ranging from 22% for foreign policy down to 7% for inflation and 6% for gasoline prices. Democratic approval is in single digits for all issues except border security at 13%. The full results are shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Trump job approval across issues, by party identification

Among adults

Issue	All adults approve	Rep approve	Ind approve	Dem Approve
Border security	48	87	40	13
Immigration	44	85	33	9
Overall	38	77	16	7
Foreign policy	38	74	22	8
The war with Iran	33	67	16	6
Tariffs	32	69	12	5
The economy	30	60	16	5
Inflation/cost of living	22	45	7	4
Gasoline prices	19	38	6	4
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 20-26, 2026
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues?

In the 12 months since May 2025, approval of Trump has declined on every issue and in every partisan category. Among Republicans, there have been declines of 5 percentage points or less on border security, immigration, and tariffs. Larger declines in approval among Republicans include 9 points on foreign policy and 10 points on overall Trump job approval. The largest Republican drops in approval are 20 points on the economy and 23 points on handling inflation and the cost of living.

Among independents during the past year, moderate decline in approval is seen for immigration (down 5 points), border security (down 7), and foreign policy (also down 7). Two issues have declined by 14 points each, tariffs and the economy, with overall approval down 15 points. The largest drop in approval is for handling inflation, which is down 16 points.

Among Democrats, no issue has declined by much because Democrats have given mostly single digit approvals throughout the year, leaving little room for decline. The one exception is border security, where approval fell 10 points. The comparison of approval from May 2025 to May 2026 by party is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Trump job approval across issues, by party identification, May 2025-May 2026

Among adults

Poll dates	Rep approve	Ind approve	Dem Approve
Border security
5/5-15/25	92	47	23
5/20-26/26	87	40	13
Immigration
5/5-15/25	90	38	13
5/20-26/26	85	33	9
Overall
5/5-15/25	87	31	8
5/20-26/26	77	16	7
Foreign policy
5/5-15/25	83	29	8
5/20-26/26	74	22	8
Tariffs
5/5-15/25	71	26	5
5/20-26/26	69	12	5
The economy
5/5-15/25	80	30	8
5/20-26/26	60	16	5
Inflation/cost of living
5/5-15/25	68	23	4
5/20-26/26	45	7	4
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues?

Most important issues

As has been the case in all seven Marquette national polls since March 2025, inflation and the cost of living is the issue that matters most to the public, with 37% citing it as most important. But concern has increased since April, when 30% listed inflation as most important, and is back to the higher level seen in January (38%). Concern over the war with Iran declined from April, when it was the top issue for 24%, to May, when 16% named it as the top issue. The percentage saying “immigration and border security” is most important declined from 14% in January to 6% in May. Other issues have remained in single digits since January. Table 6 shows the full set of issue concerns from January through May.

Table 6: Most important issue

Among adults

Issue
	May	April	January
Inflation and the cost of living	37	30	38
The economy	19	15	17
The war between Iran, Israel, and the United States	16	24	NA
Medicare & Social Security	7	6	9
Immigration and border security	6	7	14
Health care	5	5	8
Crime	2	3	2
The size of the federal deficit	2	3	3
Abortion policy	2	2	3
The war between Russia and Ukraine	NA	NA	1
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

War with Iran

Among the public, 18% say the United States has achieved its goals in the war with Iran, while 81% say it has not achieved those goals. In April, 21% said the goals had been achieved.

The reasons for the war remain unclear to the public, with 38% who say there was sufficient reason to launch the war and 61% who say there was not sufficient reason. In April, 36% thought there was sufficient reason for the war and 63% did not think so.

The ceasefire, which has now stretched on for more than 7 weeks, remains popular, with 70% approving and 29% disapproving. In April, 75% approved.

During the ceasefire, Trump has sometimes threatened to resume the bombing of Iran. This is not a popular option, with 77% saying the bombing should not resume and 23% favoring a resumption of attacks.

There are considerable partisan differences concerning resuming air attacks. Among Republicans, 44% favor resumption of bombing, while 15% of independents and 5% of Democrats favor renewing attacks. There is more support among MAGA Republicans for new bombing, 52%, while among non-MAGA Republicans, only 25% support new bombing. As for the cost of the war, 28% say the war has been worth the cost, and 72% say it has not been worth it. Fifty-seven percent of Republicans say the war has been worth the cost, while 43% say it has not been worth it. Only 11% of independents and 5% of Democrats say the war has been worth the cost.

Gas and grocery prices and the economy

The public is well aware of increasing gas prices since the Iran war began, with 95% saying gas prices have increased over the last six months, 3% saying they have held steady, and just 2% saying prices have declined. In April, 93% said gas prices had increased over the previous six months. This is in sharp contrast with the view of gas prices in January, when 50% said the price of gas had gone down over the previous half year, with 21% saying the price had gone up.

There is very little partisan difference in the perception of gas prices, with 93% of Republicans, 95% of independents, and 96% of Democrats saying prices have increased.

In addition to rising gasoline prices, 85% say the cost of groceries has gone up over the last six months, an increase from 70% in January. Grocery prices are said to be stable by 11%, and 4% say they have declined. In January, 11% thought their grocery bill was down.

Seventy-three percent of Republicans say grocery prices are up, compared to 90% of independents and 95% of Democrats

Opinion about the state of the economy also worsened since January. In May, 26% say the economy is excellent or good, down from 35% in January. Thirty percent say it is poor, up from 25% in January. The economy is seen as not so good by 45% in May, up from 40% in January.

The outlook for inflation over the next year has also worsened. In May, 71% think inflation will increase, up from 61% in January. Sixteen percent think inflation will stay about the same, and 13% think it will decrease.

The percentage of people who say they personally are better off than a year ago fell to 19% in May. It was 28% in January. Those saying they are worse off rose to 41% from 34%, and those saying things are about the same for them was 39% in May, close to the number in January, 37%.

Trump handling of inflation

Confidence that Trump’s policies will decrease inflation has fallen by nearly half since December 2024, the month after he was reelected. At that time, 41% thought his policies would lower inflation, but in May 2026, only 22% think this. At the end of 2024, 45% thought his policies would increase inflation, while in the current poll 61% think his policies are driving inflation up. Another 18% say his policies don’t affect inflation, slightly more than the 14% in December 2024.

This decline of confidence in Trump’s inflation policies has been especially pronounced among Republicans and independents. In December 2024, 76% of Republicans expected him to reduce inflation, but in this poll just 44% of Republicans still think so. Independents were not nearly so optimistic at the end of 2024, when 28% thought Trump would lower inflation; only 9% think so now. Democrats never much believed he would cut inflation. Just 8% said that in the month after he was reelected and 4% now.

Which party is better on issues

Among nine issues, the Republicans are seen as considerably better able to handle three issues than Democrats and slightly better on two issues. Democrats are seen as slightly better on two issues and substantially better on two issues. Republicans have substantial advantages on crime, immigration and border security, and national defense, and a have a slight advantage on the federal deficit and taxes. Democrats have slight advantages on the economy and on inflation, and have large advantages on the topic of Medicare and Social Security and on health care. These issue strengths have been common images of the parties for some time.

However, since January, the Republican advantage on taxes has declined from 9 points to 2 points. The slight GOP edge on the economy has flipped from a 3-point advantage to a 3-point Democratic advantage, and the Democratic lead on inflation has increased from 1 point in January to 7 points in May.

At the same time, substantial percentages, generally involving about a third or more of all people, say the parties are about the same when it comes to handling major issues or that neither would be good, a sign of disenchantment with both parties. The full results are shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Which party is better, across issues

Among adults

Issue	Net Rep minus Dem	Republican party	Democratic party	Both about the same	Neither would be good
Crime	22	41	19	28	12
Immigration and border security	19	46	27	15	13
National defense	15	42	27	20	11
The size of the federal deficit	4	27	23	26	24
Taxes	2	33	31	19	17
The economy	-3	32	35	19	14
Inflation and the cost of living	-7	28	35	20	16
Medicare and Social Security	-16	27	43	17	13
Health care	-20	24	44	16	15
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 20-26, 2026
Question: Do you think the (Republican party) or the (Democratic party) would do a better job handling each of the following issues?

Opinion of the parties and vote for Congress in November

Both political parties are seen negatively, with the Republican party in Congress faring better than the Democrats. Thirty-seven percent approve of how Republicans in Congress are doing their job, while 30% approve of the job congressional Democrats are doing theirs.

Democrats are less positive about the job Democrats in Congress are doing than are Republicans about the congressional GOP. Among Democrats, 52% approve of Democrats in Congress, while among Republicans, 74% approve of their party in Congress. This asymmetry between partisans accounts in part for the lower rating of Democrats in Congress. Both partisan camps very strongly disapprove of the other party: 92% of Democrats disapprove of Republican job performance in Congress and 91% of Republicans disapprove of the job performance of congressional Democrats.

The Republican and Democratic parties are more nearly equal in favorability in May than a year ago. In the current poll, 38% have a favorable opinion of the Republican party, and 36% are favorable to the Democratic party. A year ago, in May 2025, 41% were favorable to the Republican party and 32% to the Democratic party. Republicans are more positive to their party, 80%, than Democrats are to their party, 69%. This gap has narrowed since May 2025, when 88% of Republicans were favorable to the GOP and 64% of Democrats had a favorable view of their party.

Looking ahead to the November congressional elections, among registered voters, 46% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 45% would vote for the Republican, with 7% saying they would vote for neither and 1% who say they would not vote. The slight Democratic advantage is also seen among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote, with 49% saying they would vote for a Democratic candidate and 48% for a Republican candidate.

The congressional vote has tightened substantially from April when, among registered voters, 48% backed Democratic candidates and 44% supported Republicans, and there was a large Democratic advantage among likely voters, 53% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans.

Some of this shift is due to an increase in likelihood of voting among Republicans and a decline among Democrats. In April, 56% of Republicans said they were certain to vote in November, which rose to 59% in May. Among Democrats, those certain to vote declined from 67% in April to 58% in May.

The percentage of partisans who expect to vote for a candidate of their own party in the fall elections shifted only slightly from April to May, though independents became more supportive of each party, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: 2026 congressional vote by party identification

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Congressional vote choice
	Democratic candidate	Republican candidate	Neither	Would not vote
Republican
5/20-26/26	3	92	4	1
4/8-16/26	5	92	2	1
1/21-28/26	6	92	2	0
11/5-12/25	4	91	5	0
Independent
5/20-26/26	33	21	38	9
4/8-16/26	24	15	52	9
1/21-28/26	36	10	51	4
11/5-12/25	38	17	39	6
Democrat
5/20-26/26	94	4	2	0
4/8-16/26	96	2	1	0
1/21-28/26	95	1	3	1
11/5-12/25	96	2	1	1
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the (Democratic) candidate in your district or the (Republican) candidate in your district?

Favorability of Democratic and Republican political figures

Sen. Bernie Sanders has the highest net favorability among six prominent Democrats, followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Sen. Chuck Schumer. All have net negative favorability, with the exception of Sanders, whose net favorability is zero. Jeffries is the least well known. Harris is the best known of the Democrats, followed by Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom, and Schumer and then by Jeffries. The ratings are shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Favorability of Democratic political figures

Among adults

Political figure	Favorability
	Net favorability	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Bernie Sanders	0	45	45	10
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	-12	31	43	26
Hakeem Jeffries	-16	22	38	41
Gavin Newsom	-17	28	45	27
Kamala Harris	-21	37	58	5
Chuck Schumer	-31	19	50	31
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

The favorability of these Democrats is much higher among Democratic partisans. All have positive net favorability, with Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez remaining the top two and with Harris moving up to third-most favorable. The congressional leaders, Jeffries and Schumer, rank the lowest, though both also remain the least well known, even among Democrats. These results are shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Favorability of Democratic political figures, among Democrats

Among Democrats

Political figure	Favorability
	Net favorability	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Bernie Sanders	66	80	14	7
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	45	60	15	24
Kamala Harris	40	69	29	2
Gavin Newsom	35	54	19	26
Hakeem Jeffries	24	42	18	40
Chuck Schumer	3	35	32	32
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Among all adults, favorability of Republican figures also finds each holding a net negative favorability rating; Secretary of State Marco Rubio has the least negative rating, followed by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, with Trump having the most negative favorability rating, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Favorability of Republican political figures

Among adults

Political figure	Favorability
	Net favorability	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Marco Rubio	-11	34	45	21
JD Vance	-15	39	54	8
Pete Hegseth	-19	27	46	27
Donald Trump	-25	37	62	1
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Among Republicans, each of these figures has a net positive favorability rating, with Vance the most positively viewed, followed by Trump and Rubio. Hegseth is viewed the least positively, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Favorability of Republican political figures, among Republicans

Among Republicans

Political figure	Favorability
	Net favorability	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
JD Vance	59	77	18	5
Donald Trump	53	76	23	0
Marco Rubio	50	66	16	18
Pete Hegseth	36	55	19	26
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Favorability of Pope Leo XIV

Pope Leo XIV is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 19%, with 35% saying they haven’t heard enough.

The Pope is seen most favorably by Roman Catholics, 66%, and has net positive ratings among all religious affiliations. He is also best known among Catholics. Favorability by religious affiliation is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Favorability of Pope Leo XIV, by religious affiliation

Among adults

Religious affiliation	Net favorability	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Born-again Protestant	8	36	28	36
Mainline Protestant	40	50	10	40
Roman Catholic	50	66	16	18
No religion	30	46	16	37
Other religion	19	39	20	41
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Pope Leo the XIV, or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

News attention

The war with Iran was the most closely followed news event in this poll, with 72% saying they read or heard a lot about the war. That is down from 76% in April.

A gunman’s attempt to enter the White House Correspondents’ Dinner was the second-most followed story, with 54% hearing a lot.

Attention drops off for other events this past month, with Trump’s trip to China (38%) being closely followed by states redrawing congressional districts (37%). Still less attention was given to the defeat of Republican incumbents in primaries who were opposed by Trump-endorsed challengers. The least attention was given to news that the federal debt now exceeds the gross national product. The full results are shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Attention to events in the news

Among adults

Item	Heard or read
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
The U.S. war with Iran	72	22	6
A gunman who attempted to enter the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, D.C.	54	34	12
Donald Trump’s trip to China and meetings with Xi Jinping	38	42	20
States including Texas, California, and Florida redrawing their congressional districts for the 2026 elections	37	34	29
Republican incumbents who Trump opposed were defeated in Republican primaries in Indiana, Louisiana and Kentucky by candidates Trump endorsed	29	34	37
The U.S. federal debt is now greater than the nation’s total gross domestic product per year	28	42	30
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey: May 20-26, 2026
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Political violence

In the aftermath of a gunman’s attempt to enter the White House Correspondents’ dinner, 29% say the threat of violence against political leaders is a very big problem, and 40% say it is a moderately big problem. In September 2025, following the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk, 38% said the threat of violence was a very big problem and 38% said it was a moderately big problem.

Eighteen percent say that it can sometimes be justified for Americans today to resort to violence in order to achieve political goals, while 82% say violence is never justified. In September, 11% said violence can sometimes be justified.

White House ballroom, data centers, and ACA tax credits

• 38% say tearing down the East Wing of the White House to build a ballroom is an appropriate modernization, while 61% say the East Wing should have been preserved. In November, 41% said it was an appropriate modernization.

• Opposition to the construction of data centers edged up slightly in May, with 71% saying the costs outweigh the benefits of data centers. In January, 62% said the costs were greater than benefits, rising in April to 69%.
• The public continues to say Congress should have extended tax credits that reduced the cost of insurance under the Affordable Care Act, rather than letting the credits expire at the end of 2025. Support for extending the credits has barely changed since November, with 71% in May saying the credits should have been extended and 70% in November.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted May 20-26, 2026, interviewing 1,001 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. For registered voters, the sample size is 857, with a margin of error of +/-3.6. For likely voters, the sample size is 576 with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. For Republicans, the sample size is 413, with a margin of error of +/-5.3, and for Democrats, the sample size is 435, with a margin of error of +/-5.2. The sample of independents is 152, with a margin of error of +/-8.8.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) are held for release on June 4. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School website.

Also:

• Strong majority support for bill among Republicans, independents, and Democrats
• 69% say bill should have been passed now, as opposed to waiting until next year for further information on budget surplus or deficit
• Fewer than 20% say political figures who opposed the bill did the right thing
• 65% say Evers did the right thing in supporting the bill

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll finds 80% of Wisconsin adults say the legislature should have passed a proposed bill using the projected state budget surplus to reduce property taxes, increase special education funding, and provide rebates to taxpayers. Eleven percent say the legislature should have defeated the bill, and 9% don’t know whether the bill should have passed or not.

The bill, proposed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republicans Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and Senate Majority leader Devin LeMahieu, passed the Assembly with bipartisan support but was defeated in the Senate on May 13. In the Senate, 3 Republicans joined all 15 Democrats in voting no, while 15 Republicans voted for the bill.

In a rare level of agreement across party lines, 77% of Republicans, 81% of independents, and 82% of Democrats in the poll say the legislature should have passed the surplus bill, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Pass or defeat budget surplus bill

Among adults

Party ID	Pass or defeat
	Should have passed the bill	Should have defeated the bill	Don’t know
Among all adults	80	11	9
Republican	77	16	8
Independent	81	8	11
Democrat	82	10	8
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, May 20-21, 2026
Question: On May 11, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican legislative leaders announced an agreement on a bill that would have used $1.8 billion of the projected $2.5 billion state budget surplus to increase funding for special education, reduce school property taxes by about 5%, and send rebate checks of $300 to individuals, $600 to married couples, who paid state income taxes. It would also have eliminated taxes on tips and overtime. Do you think the state legislature (should have passed the bill), or (should it have defeated the bill)?

The survey was conducted May 20-21, 2026, interviewing 454 Wisconsin adults, with a margin of error of +/-5.5 percentage points.

There was similarly broad and strong support for the bill across ideological lines, with more than three-quarters of conservatives, moderates, and liberals in favor of the bill, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Pass or defeat budget surplus bill

Among adults

Ideology	Pass or defeat
	Should have passed the bill	Should have defeated the bill	Don’t know
Among all adults	80	11	9
Conservative	78	12	10
Moderate	86	10	5
Liberal	78	12	10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, May 20-21, 2026
Question: On May 11, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican legislative leaders announced an agreement on a bill that would have used $1.8 billion of the projected $2.5 billion state budget surplus to increase funding for special education, reduce school property taxes by about 5%, and send rebate checks of $300 to individuals, $600 to married couples, who paid state income taxes. It would also have eliminated taxes on tips and overtime. Do you think the state legislature (should have passed the bill), or (should it have defeated the bill)?

Support for the bill was also strongly positive across all geographic regions of the state, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Pass or defeat budget surplus bill

Among adults

Region	Pass or defeat
	Should have passed the bill	Should have defeated the bill	Don’t know
Among all adults	80	11	9
Milwaukee city	88	9	2
Rest of Milwaukee media market	77	11	12
Madison media market	78	13	8
Green Bay/Appleton media market	81	15	4
North and west media markets	80	8	12
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, May 20-21, 2026
Question: On May 11, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican legislative leaders announced an agreement on a bill that would have used $1.8 billion of the projected $2.5 billion state budget surplus to increase funding for special education, reduce school property taxes by about 5%, and send rebate checks of $300 to individuals, $600 to married couples, who paid state income taxes. It would also have eliminated taxes on tips and overtime. Do you think the state legislature (should have passed the bill), or (should it have defeated the bill)?

Fiscal issues

Opponents of the surplus bill during the legislative process pointed to the potential fiscal consequences of spending a projected surplus now, when the state’s financial situation remains uncertain for next year’s budget. A second question in the Marquette poll included this fiscal concern and asked whether the respondent thought the bill should be delayed until next year or if it would be better to pass the bill now. With this concern mentioned, 69% say it would be better to provide the spending, rebates, and school aid now, while 21% say it would be better to delay this until next year and 9% say they don’t know.

Partisan differences are slight with this question, with more than two-thirds each of Republicans, independents, and Democrats in favor of passing the surplus bill now rather than waiting, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Pass budget surplus bill now or wait until next year, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Pass now or wait
	Better to delay special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks until next year	Better to provide special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks now	Don’t know
Among all adults	21	69	9
Republican	24	68	8
Independent	22	67	11
Democrat	18	74	9
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, May 20-21, 2026
Question: Some have argued that the bill was fiscally irresponsible for spending a projected surplus now that might lead to a deficit in future budgets. Would it be better to delay providing special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks until next year, or would it be better to provide them now, even if it might affect the budget next year?

Moderates are most in favor of passage of the surplus bill now, 78%, with smaller majorities of conservatives, 63%, and liberals, 71%, in favor of this also, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Pass budget surplus bill now or wait until next year, by ideology

Among adults

Ideology	Pass now or wait
	Better to delay special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks until next year	Better to provide special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks now	Don’t know
Among all adults	21	69	9
Conservative	27	63	9
Moderate	15	78	8
Liberal	19	71	10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, May 20-21, 2026
Question: Some have argued that the bill was fiscally irresponsible for spending a projected surplus now that might lead to a deficit in future budgets. Would it be better to delay providing special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks until next year, or would it be better to provide them now, even if it might affect the budget next year?

Respondents favor action on the surplus bill this year across all regions, including both the Madison media market, a heavily Democratic part of the state, and the north and west of the state, a solidly Republican area. These results are shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Pass budget surplus bill now or wait until next year, by region

Among adults

Region	Pass now or wait
	Better to delay special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks until next year	Better to provide special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks now	Don’t know
Among all adults	21	69	9
Milwaukee city	12	78	9
Rest of Milwaukee media market	20	69	11
Madison media market	27	64	9
Green Bay/Appleton media market	21	67	11
North and west media markets	21	73	6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, May 20-21, 2026
Question: Some have argued that the bill was fiscally irresponsible for spending a projected surplus now that might lead to a deficit in future budgets. Would it be better to delay providing special education funding, property tax reductions, and rebate checks until next year, or would it be better to provide them now, even if it might affect the budget next year?

Reaction to candidate positions on the surplus bill

Respondents were given a reminder of the positions the legislative parties, gubernatorial candidates, and Evers took on the surplus bill, including this statement:

The bill was defeated in the state Senate on May 13, with all 15 Democratic senators and 3 Republicans voting against the bill, versus 15 Republicans voting for it. The bill was also opposed by Republican candidate for governor Tom Tiffany and most of the Democratic candidates for governor.

Respondents were then asked about the positions of the Democratic candidates, Tiffany, and Evers on the surplus bill.

Fewer than 20% say the opposition from the gubernatorial candidates was the right thing for them to do, with a slight majority saying it was the wrong thing to do, while just under 30% say they don’t know if these positions were right or wrong. In contrast, 65% say Evers’ support for the bill was the right thing to do, with 15% saying it was the wrong thing and 20% saying they don’t know. The results for each of these political figures are shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Right or wrong position on the budget surplus bill

Among adults

Political figure	Right or wrong position
	It was the right thing for (them/him) to do	It was the wrong thing for (them/him) to do	Don’t know
Democratic candidates for governor opposing	19	54	27
Republican candidate for governor Tom Tiffany opposing	18	53	29
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers supporting	65	15	20
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, May 20-21, 2026
Question: How do you feel about (Democratic candidates for governor opposing) (Republican candidate for governor Tom Tiffany opposing) (Democratic Gov. Tony Evers supporting) the bill?

Despite ordinary partisan affinity, knowing the positions of political leaders for or against the bill did not bring rank-and-file partisans into alignment with any of their party’s leaders who opposed the bill. Rather, for example, regardless of party, 59% or more of each group said Evers did the right thing in supporting the bill.

The substantial “don’t know” rate suggests discomfort among respondents when the positions of their own party’s  political figures conflict with the respondents’ policy preferences.  At the same time, the impact of partisanship is rather limited. Fewer than 30% of any partisan group says the opposition from Democratic gubernatorial candidates or from Tiffany was the right thing for them or him to do, while 48% to 59% of each partisan camp say opposition was the wrong position for both Democratic candidates and for Tiffany. “Don’t know” rates range from 20% to 32% across partisan groups.

In the case of Evers’ support for the bill, 59% of Republicans, 60% of independents, and 76% of Democrats say Evers did the right thing.

These comparisons are shown in Table 8. 

Table 8: Political figures’ positions on budget surplus bill, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Right or wrong position
	It was the right thing for (them/him) to do	It was the wrong thing for (them/him) to do	Don’t know
Democratic candidates for governor opposing
Republican	21	59	20
Independent	19	52	29
Democrat	17	51	32
Republican candidate for governor Tom Tiffany opposing
Republican	28	48	25
Independent	15	55	30
Democrat	12	57	31
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers supporting
Republican	59	21	20
Independent	60	13	28
Democrat	76	11	12
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: May 20-21, 2026
Question: How do you feel about (Democratic candidates for governor opposing) (Republican candidate for governor Tom Tiffany opposing) (Democratic Gov. Tony Evers supporting) the bill?

Will positions on the bill matter in November’s election?

Twenty-five percent of adults say candidate positions on the surplus bill will be very important for their vote in November for governor and the legislature. Another 48% say it will be somewhat important, while 21% say it is not too important and 6% say not at all important.

Those who favored passage of the surplus bill are slightly more likely to say the bill will be very important for their vote, 28%, compared to those who opposed the bill, 20%. There is little partisan gap in importance of positions on the bill for the upcoming elections, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Importance of budget surplus bill for November vote, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Importance for Nov. vote
	Very important	Somewhat important	Not too important	Not at all important
Among all adults	25	48	21	6
Republican	23	50	17	10
Independent	27	46	21	6
Democrat	25	47	26	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, May 20-21, 2026
Question: How important are the positions taken by candidates on this bill for your vote in November for governor and for state legislature?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted May 20-21, 2026, interviewing 454 Wisconsin adults, with a margin of error of +/-5.5 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a sample selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a probability sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with all respondents. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 33% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 36% independent. In all polls conducted in 2025 and 2026, the combined samples were 36% Republican, 32% Democratic, and 32% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law School website.