Large majorities of both Republicans and Democrats favor strict ethics code, fixed terms for justices; majority of those polled say justices decide cases based more on politics than law
 MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 45% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 55% disapprove. In July, approval was 43% and disapproval was 57%.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: U.S. Supreme Court approval

Among adults

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
10/1-10/24	45	55
7/24-8/1/24	43	57
5/6-15/24	39	61
3/18-28/24	47	53
2/5-15/24	40	60
11/2-7/23	41	59
9/18-25/23	43	57
7/7-12/23	45	55
5/8-18/23	41	59
3/13-22/23	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
11/15-22/22	44	56
9/7-14/22	40	60
7/5-12/22	38	61
5/9-19/22	44	55
3/14-24/22	54	45
1/10-21/22	52	46
11/1-10/21	54	46
9/7-16/21	49	50
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/8-15/20	66	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted Oct. 1-10, 2024. The survey interviewed 1,005 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points.

A very large majority, 90%, favor enforcing a strict ethics code for Supreme Court justices, while 10% oppose this. Unlike other views of the Court, partisan differences on this topic are small, with 88% of Republicans and 93% of Democrats in favor of enforcing an ethics code. There is slightly less support from independents, 81%.

The public is divided on rating the honesty and ethical standards of the justices, with 27% saying that the justices have very high or high standards, 38% rating their ethical standards as average, and 35% saying the justices’ ethical standards are low or very low. While there is division in views of the Court’s ethical standards, support for an ethics code is high regardless of opinion of the Court’s current standards. Of those who say the Court’s standards are very high or high, 89% are in favor of enforcing an ethics code, while 91% of those saying the current standards are low or very low also are in favor of an ethics code.

There are partisan divides in rating the current ethical standards of the Court, with Republicans giving considerably higher ratings than Democrats, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Rating ethical standards of the Supreme Court, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Ethical standards of Court
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
Total	27	38	35
Republican	43	42	16
Independent	16	44	40
Democrat	14	34	52
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?

The survey asked about other proposals concerning the Court, besides enforcing a strict ethics code.

The proposal for justices to serve fixed terms, rather than the current system of appointments for life, is very popular. A fixed term is supported by 83%, with 17% opposed. Support for fixed terms has increased from 72% in November 2021 when the poll last included that question. A majority of Republicans, 70%, favor fixed terms, as do 86% of independents and 94% of Democrats.

Opinion is more closely divided on whether to increase the number of justices on the Court, with 54% in favor of and 46% opposed to increasing the size of the Court. There has been a modest growth in support, from 42% in September 2019, for having more members of the Court. There is a large partisan divide on this, with 35% of Republicans, 56% of independents, and 71% of Democrats in favor of expanding the number of justices on the Court.

The belief that justices’ decisions are motivated mainly by politics has increased since 2019, with 55% now saying this. The other 45% say justices are mainly motivated by the law. In September 2019, 35% said justices were motivated mainly by politics and 64% said they were motivated mainly by the law.

In 2019, there was almost no partisan difference on whether justices were motivated by the law or by politics. At that time, 66% of Republicans and 65% of Democrats said justices’ opinions were based mainly on the law. In the current poll, 62% of Republicans say mainly the law, while only 27% of Democrats say the same.

Among those polled, 83% say that the choice of the next justice of the Supreme Court is very or somewhat important to them, while 17% say it is not too or not at all important to them. Both Republicans, 83%, and Democrats, 86%, say the choice of justice is very or somewhat important, while 72% of independents say so.

As the Court begins its new annual term, the public is at a low point in attention to news about the Court. Only 19% say they have heard a lot about the Court in the last month, while 61% have heard a little and 20% have heard nothing at all. This is similar to attention to the Court in September and November a year ago. Attention rose over the spring and peaked in July, as the Court ended its term issuing several major decisions. The trend in attention over the past year is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Attention to news about the Court

Among adults

Poll dates	How much read or heard about the Court
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
10/1-10/24	19	61	20
7/24-8/1/24	32	54	14
5/6-15/24	27	52	21
3/18-28/24	30	50	19
2/5-15/24	24	56	20
11/2-7/23	15	60	25
9/18-25/23	17	61	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?

Public opinion about recent decisions

The poll asked about six recent prominent decisions. A majority of the public favors four of these and opposes two of them. Table 4 summarizes opinion about these decisions.

Table 4: Favor or oppose the Court’s decision

Among adults

Case	Favor or oppose decision
	Favor	Oppose
Ban use of race in college admissions	79	21
Right to possess a firearm outside the home	70	30
Maintain current access to abortion medication	66	34
Right to same-sex marriage	65	35
Presidents have immunity for official acts	39	61
Overturn Roe v. Wade	37	63
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: (Description of the decision) Do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In July, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that, while there is no immunity for unofficial acts, former presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts as president.
Question: In June, the U.S. Supreme Court maintained access to a widely available abortion pill, mifepristone, rejecting a bid from a group seeking to undo the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the pill.
Question: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage.
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home.
Question: In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit.

Partisans differ in which decisions they favor. Table 5 shows the percentage of each partisan group that favors each of the six decisions above. A majority of Republicans favor five of the six decisions, while a majority of Democrats and independents favor four of the six. A majority of both parties favor three of the six decisions: right to possess a firearm outside the home, a ban on the use of race in college admissions, and maintaining current access to abortion medication. The parties are in greatest disagreement on presidential immunity and overturning Roe v. Wade. They are in least, but still substantial, disagreement on banning race in admissions and maintaining access to abortion medication.

Table 5: Favor the Court’s decisions, by party identification

Among adults

Case	Percent of partisan group in favor of decision
	Republican	Independent	Democrat	Net Rep-Dem
Presidents have immunity for official acts	66	33	15	51
Overturn Roe v. Wade	62	28	14	48
Right to possess a firearm outside the home	93	55	51	42
Ban use of race in college admissions	94	83	63	31
Maintain current access to abortion medication	55	59	78	-23
Right to same-sex marriage	47	64	83	-36
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: (Description of the decision) Do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In July, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that, while there is no immunity for unofficial acts, former presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts as president.
Question: In June, the U.S. Supreme Court maintained access to a widely available abortion pill, mifepristone, rejecting a bid from a group seeking to undo the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the pill.
Question: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage.
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home.
Question: In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit.

Turning from partisan groups to ideology: There are similar differences in which issues conservatives, moderates, and liberals favor, as shown in Table 6. Conservatives and liberals are the most divided on overturning Roe v. Wade, right to same-sex marriage, and presidential immunity. There is least, but still substantial, disagreement on access to abortion medication and banning use of race in admissions. At least 50% of conservatives favor five of the six decisions, and at least 49% of liberals favor four of the six decisions.

Table 6: Favor the Court’s decisions, by ideology

Among adults

Case	Percent of ideological group in favor of decision
	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal	Net Con-Lib
Overturn Roe v. Wade	66	28	9	57
Presidents have immunity for official acts	67	31	12	55
Right to possess a firearm outside the home	93	63	49	44
Ban use of race in college admissions	92	84	55	37
Maintain current access to abortion medication	50	70	84	-34
Right to same-sex marriage	41	68	96	-55
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: (Description of the decision) Do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In July, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that, while there is no immunity for unofficial acts, former presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts as president.
Question: In June, the U.S. Supreme Court maintained access to a widely available abortion pill, mifepristone, rejecting a bid from a group seeking to undo the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the pill.
Question: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage.
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home.
Question: In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit.

The Court has had a majority of justices appointed by Republican presidents for 54 years, since 1970 (with the exception of a 14-month vacancy in 2016-17 which created a 4-4 tie). The current Court has six justices appointed by Republicans and three appointed by Democrats. Nonetheless, 22% of adults believe a majority of justices were definitely or probably appointed by Democratic presidents. Another 43% say a majority were probably appointed by Republican presidents, and 35% say the majority were definitely appointed by Republicans. This opinion has varied modestly since 2019, with a slight increase in the percentage correctly saying that there is definitely a Republican-appointed majority, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents

Among adults

Poll dates	Majority appointed by
	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
10/1-10/24	22	43	35
7/24-8/1/24	24	41	35
5/6-15/24	28	40	33
3/18-28/24	25	43	32
2/5-15/24	29	38	33
11/2-7/23	26	43	30
9/18-25/23	26	42	32
7/7-12/23	22	42	36
5/8-18/23	29	41	30
3/13-22/23	27	41	31
1/9-20/23	23	41	36
11/15-22/22	24	40	35
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Confidence in institutions

Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 8. Despite criticism over recent assassination attempts by individuals on former President Donald Trump, the U.S. Secret Service has the highest percentage of the public expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence, as among five institutions the survey asked about. The U.S. Supreme Court has the second highest level of confidence, followed very closely by the presidency. The national news media and Congress have the lowest confidence ratings.

Table 8: Confidence in institutions

Among adults

Institution	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
The U.S. Secret Service	31	39	30
U.S. Supreme Court	27	34	39
The presidency	26	37	37
National news media	15	32	53
Congress	13	38	49
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

As approval of the Supreme Court has declined, so has confidence in the Court. In 2019, 37% of respondents had a great deal or a lot of confidence in the Court, while 20% had little or no confidence. In this October poll, the balance has reversed, with 27% having a great deal or a lot of confidence, while 39% have little or no confidence. The full trend is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Confidence in the Supreme Court, 2019-2024

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
10/1-10/24	27	34	39
7/24-8/1/24	26	32	42
5/6-15/24	24	37	40
3/18-28/24	30	37	33
2/5-15/24	25	35	40
11/2-7/23	28	36	36
9/18-25/23	28	37	35
7/7-12/23	31	32	37
5/8-18/23	25	36	39
3/13-22/23	28	40	32
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Perceived ideological leaning of the Court

In October, 24% describe the Supreme Court as “very conservative,” 35% describe it as “somewhat conservative,” and 32% call the Court “moderate,” while 7% see the Court as “somewhat liberal” and 2% believe it is “very liberal.”

Views of the Court have shifted to the right since 2019, with fewer members of the public seeing the Court as moderate and more seeing it as conservative or very conservative, as shown in Table 10. The shift in perceptions is most apparent in May and July 2022, around the time of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

Table 10: Perceived ideological leaning of the Court, 2019-2024

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
10/1-10/24	24	35	32	7	2
7/24-8/1/24	28	30	32	7	3
5/6-15/24	25	32	31	10	2
3/18-28/24	25	32	33	8	3
2/5-15/24	21	34	33	7	5
11/2-7/23	21	35	32	7	5
9/18-25/23	20	37	32	7	3
7/7-12/23	27	35	28	7	3
5/8-18/23	24	33	30	10	3
3/13-22/23	23	35	34	6	2
1/9-20/23	22	37	31	8	2
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following… The U.S. Supreme Court

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Oct. 1-10, 2024, interviewing 1,005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey, concerning political topics, were released previously, Oct.  16.

Wording of questions about recent and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about recent decisions includes:

Food and Drug Administration v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine

• In June, the U.S. Supreme Court maintained access to a widely available abortion pill, mifepristone, rejecting a bid from a group seeking to undo the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the pill. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Trump v. United States

• In July, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that, while there is no immunity for unofficial acts, former presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts as president. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

The wording of questions about earlier decisions includes:

Obergefell v. Hodges

• In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen

• In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization

• In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College

• In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that in the race for president, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice of 48% and Republican former President Donald Trump is the choice of 47% among likely voters, with 4% saying they would vote for someone else and 1% who would not vote for president.

When those who would vote for someone else or not vote are asked whom they would support if they had to choose between Harris or Trump, Harris and Trump each receive 50% among likely voters.

When the ballot question explicitly includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West, Harris receives 44% and Trump 41%. Kennedy is supported by 9%, Oliver receives 2%, Stein is the choice of 1%, and West wins 2%, among likely voters. Kennedy, who suspended his campaign, and the other third-party candidates are not on all state ballots.

In voting for Congress, 51% of likely voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 49% will vote for the Republican candidate.

When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 53% say Harris will definitely or probably win, while 47% say Trump will definitely or probably win.

The survey was conducted Oct. 1-10, 2024, interviewing 886 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 699, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Perceptions of presidential and vice-presidential candidates

Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 52% of registered voters, with 2% saying they haven’t heard enough. In July, 47% had a favorable view and 50% an unfavorable view of Harris, while 3% hadn’t heard enough. The full trend of Harris favorability is shown in Table 1. The net favorability rating for Harris in Marquette Law School national polling has been much better for her since she became the candidate for president than during most of her earlier vice presidency.

Table 1: Harris favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
10/1-10/24	-5	47	52	2
7/24-8/1/24	-3	47	50	3
5/6-15/24	-24	35	59	6
3/18-28/24	-25	35	60	5
2/5-15/24	-19	37	56	7
11/2-7/23	-26	34	60	6
9/18-25/23	-20	37	57	6
7/7-12/23	-25	33	58	9
5/8-18/23	-26	32	58	10
3/13-22/23	-21	33	54	13
1/9-20/23	-21	35	56	9
11/15-22/22	-16	36	52	12
9/7-14/22	-15	38	53	9
1/10-21/22	-14	37	51	12
11/1-10/21	-8	39	47	14
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

In October, Trump is seen favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 55%, while 1% are without an opinion. In July, his favorability was 45% and unfavorability 53%, with 1% lacking an opinion. The full trend for Trump favorability since 2021 is shown in Table 2. Trump’s net favorability hit a low point in January 2022 at -37 but has improved steadily in 2023 and 2024.

Table 2: Trump favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
10/1-10/24	-11	44	55	1
7/24-8/1/24	-8	45	53	1
5/6-15/24	-17	41	58	1
3/18-28/24	-13	43	56	1
2/5-15/24	-9	45	54	1
11/2-7/23	-15	42	57	2
9/18-25/23	-15	42	57	1
7/7-12/23	-28	35	63	2
5/8-18/23	-21	38	59	2
3/13-22/23	-29	34	63	2
1/9-20/23	-26	36	62	2
11/15-22/22	-36	31	67	1
9/7-14/22	-30	34	64	2
7/5-12/22	-27	35	62	3
5/9-19/22	-23	37	60	2
3/14-24/22	-22	38	60	2
1/10-21/22	-37	31	68	1
11/1-10/21	-34	32	66	2
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

President Joe Biden remains an unpopular figure, with more negative ratings than either Harris or Trump. His net favorability was only slightly negative at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Since that time, he has received net negative ratings near -20 in most Marquette Law School national polls. In the new poll, 39% have a favorable opinion and 60% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, for a -21 favorability. The full trend for Biden since November 2021 is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Biden favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
10/1-10/24	-21	39	60	1
7/24-8/1/24	-16	42	58	1
5/6-15/24	-21	39	60	1
3/18-28/24	-20	40	60	1
2/5-15/24	-20	40	60	1
11/2-7/23	-19	40	59	1
9/18-25/23	-21	39	60	1
7/7-12/23	-17	41	58	1
5/8-18/23	-23	37	60	3
3/13-22/23	-15	41	56	3
1/9-20/23	-11	43	54	2
11/15-22/22	-6	46	52	3
9/7-14/22	-9	44	53	2
7/5-12/22	-26	35	61	3
5/9-19/22	-17	40	57	3
3/14-24/22	-10	44	54	2
1/10-21/22	-6	46	52	3
11/1-10/21	-5	45	50	5
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

The percentage of voters with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” increased slightly from late July, but remains well below the levels in the spring when Biden was the Democratic candidate and Harris his running mate. For Harris and Trump, 12% are unfavorable to both in October, a slight increase from July’s 10%. By contrast, 21% were unfavorable to both Trump and Harris in May. The trend since November 2023 is shown in Table 4. Since Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate, slightly more people are favorable to her and unfavorable to Trump than those unfavorable to Harris and favorable to Trump. From March 2023 through May 2024, more were favorable to Trump and unfavorable to Harris.

Table 4: Trend in those unfavorable to both Harris and Trump

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Fav Harris, Fav Trump	Fav Harris, Unfav Trump	Unfav Harris, Fav Trump	Unfav Harris, Unfav Trump	DK either
10/1-10/24	3	43	40	12	2
7/24-8/1/24	4	43	39	10	5
5/6-15/24	2	33	38	21	6
3/18-28/24	3	32	38	21	6
2/5-15/24	3	34	39	17	7
11/2-7/23	3	30	37	23	7
9/18-25/23	4	32	35	22	7
7/7-12/23	1	31	32	25	10
5/8-18/23	1	30	33	24	11
3/13-22/23	1	30	31	23	15
1/9-20/23	1	34	33	22	10
11/15-22/22	1	35	28	23	13
9/7-14/22	2	35	31	21	11
1/10-21/22	1	35	28	22	13
11/1-10/21	2	36	28	18	16
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance is seen favorably by 35% and unfavorably by 47%, with 18% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. In July, he was seen favorably by 29% and unfavorably by 45%, with 25% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.

Democratic vice-presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz is seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 39%, while 23% haven’t heard enough about him. This is the first time favorability to Walz has been asked.

Characteristics of Harris and Trump

Respondents are asked how well a number of phrases describe both Harris and Trump. Trump is seen as having a stronger record of accomplishments than Harris and has a slight advantage on being a strong leader. Trump is seen as too old to be president by a majority, while few see Harris that way. Trump is also seen by more than 60% as having behaved corruptly, a phrase 38% say describes Harris.

Harris is described as sharing the respondents’ values by a slightly larger percentage than viewed Trump that way, and, by larger margins, Harris is also seen as intelligent and with the right temperament to be president compared to those who see Trump in these ways. All these perceptions are shown in Table 5.

Table 5: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump

Among registered voters

Candidate	How well phrase describes
	Very/somewhat well	Not too/not at all well
Strong record of accomplishments
Harris	43	57
Trump	53	47
Is a strong leader
Harris	51	49
Trump	54	46
Is too old to be president
Harris	13	87
Trump	59	41
Has behaved corruptly
Harris	38	62
Trump	61	39
Shares your values
Harris	50	50
Trump	45	55
Is intelligent
Harris	62	38
Trump	50	50
Has the right temperament to be president
Harris	59	41
Trump	38	62
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)?

Which candidate is better on issues

Table 6 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and the Israel-Hamas war, and holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris has her largest advantage on abortion policy, followed by health care, Medicare & Social Security, and ensuring fair and accurate elections.

Despite the campaign, the debate, and news coverage of the candidates, between 12% and 26% of registered voters say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.

Table 6: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

Issue	Who better
	Harris	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good
Immigration and border security	36	51	6	6
The economy	36	51	7	5
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza	32	42	12	14
Foreign relations	41	45	7	7
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	45	33	11	10
Medicare & Social Security	46	34	13	7
Health care	48	33	11	8
Abortion policy	53	30	9	8
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Most important issues

Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration, with abortion policy the third most important issue, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Most important issues

Among registered voters

Response	Percent
The economy	40
Immigration and border security	15
Abortion policy	12
Medicare & Social Security	8
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	8
Health care	5
Foreign relations	2
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza	2
Don’t know	7
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Partisans differ on the most important issues, though all rank the economy as most important. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with immigration and abortion policy tied for second most important. Democrats put the economy first, followed by abortion policy, for their top concerns. Ensuring fair elections and Medicare & Social Security tied for third most important among Democrats. Only 3% of Democrats rank immigration as their top issue. The full results are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Most important issues, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Issue
	The economy	Immigration and border security	Health  care	Foreign relations	Abortion policy	Medicare & Social Security	The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	Ensuring fair and accurate elections	Don’t know
Republican	50	29	2	2	4	3	2	3	4
Independent	42	9	8	3	9	6	4	0	18
Democrat	30	3	7	3	20	14	2	14	8
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Economic conditions, direction of the country, and personal financial situation

The public has on balance negative views of the economy, the direction of the country, and their personal financial situation. Views of the economy and financial situations have not changed appreciably over the past year. The economy is seen as excellent by only 4%, as good by 24%, as not so good by 42%, and as poor by 30%. The full trend since November 2023 is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll dates	National economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
10/1-10/24	4	24	42	30
7/24-8/1/24	4	30	33	33
5/6-15/24	3	28	38	31
3/18-28/24	5	28	38	29
2/5-15/24	6	29	40	25
11/2-7/23	3	24	40	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

A substantial majority (79%) say the country is off on the wrong track, while 21% say it is headed in the right direction. Trend data for this question are not available.

Respondents’ family financial situation is virtually the same as it was a year ago: 38% say they are living comfortably, 43% say they are just getting by, and 19% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
10/1-10/24	38	43	19
7/24-8/1/24	38	41	21
5/6-15/24	40	42	18
3/18-28/24	46	38	16
2/5-15/24	42	41	17
11/2-7/23	39	43	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Immigration policy

Immigration and border security has consistently been the second-most important issue for voters in 2024. The details of public opinion on immigrants in the United States illegally depend a great deal on how the question is framed. In the Marquette Law School Poll’s national surveys, the issue has been asked three different ways.

In March and October, one question was worded as follows:

Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? — They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship — They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship — They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.

In the current poll, 53% favor undocumented immigrants being able to stay in jobs and eventually apply for citizenship, with 18% saying they should stay only as guest workers but not be able to apply for citizenship, and 29% saying they should leave their jobs and the country. There was an increase in support for a path to citizenship between the March and October polls, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Undocumented immigrants currently in U.S.

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Policy preference
	They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship	They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship	They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.
10/1-10/24	53	18	29
3/18-28/24	41	25	34
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.?

Since February, respondents were given one of two versions of a question about whether they favor deporting illegal immigrants. Support for deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally, without mention of employment or length of residence, has been substantial throughout the year but has trended downward since first asked in February.

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?

With this wording, 58% favor deportation and 42% are opposed. When first asked in February, 68% favored deportations and 32% were opposed. The full trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Deport immigrants illegally in U.S.

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favor or oppose
	Favor	Oppose
10/1-10/24	58	42
7/24-8/1/24	61	39
5/6-15/24	64	36
3/18-28/24	63	37
2/5-15/24	68	32
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?

An alternative question wording, asked since May of a different half of the respondents from those asked the previous question, includes mention of those who have lengthy residency, jobs, and no criminal record:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?

When worded this way, 40% favor deportations and 60% are opposed. Mention of residence, jobs, and no criminal record thus reduces support for deportations by around 20 percentage points, compared to the wording without additional description. The trend for this question, asked since May, is shown in Table 13. Support for deportations has declined over time with this wording, as well.

Table 13: Deport immigrants illegally in U.S., including long-time residents with jobs etc.

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favor or oppose
	Favor	Oppose
10/1-10/24	40	60
7/24-8/1/24	45	55
5/6-15/24	48	52
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?

Abortion policy

In October, 61% oppose the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, which had made abortion legal in all states, while 39% favor that recent decision. More than 60% have opposed the 2022 decision over the past year, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favor or oppose
	Favor	Oppose
10/1-10/24	39	61
7/24-8/1/24	32	68
2/5-15/24	36	64
11/2-7/23	35	65
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: [In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Ideological perceptions of the candidates

Both presidential candidates are seen as more ideologically extreme than voters see themselves. Among all registered voters, 32% describe themselves as having “moderate” political views, 16% say their views are “very conservative,” and 11% say they are “very liberal.”

Among registered voters, 19% see Harris as moderate, while 13% see Trump as moderate. Equal percentages see Trump as very conservative, 46%, and Harris as very liberal, 46%. These perceptions are shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Ideological perceptions of candidates and self

Among registered voters

Perception of	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
Harris	4	3	19	29	46
Trump	46	34	13	3	5
Self-perception	16	25	32	16	11
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting

Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from May to July, as shown in Table 16. It has changed little since July. In the current survey, 54% say they are very enthusiastic about voting.

Table 16: Enthusiasm to vote in November election

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
10/1-10/24	54	25	14	7
7/24-8/1/24	54	26	14	6
5/6-15/24	43	26	21	10
3/18-28/24	37	28	26	9
2/5-15/24	41	33	19	7
11/2-7/23	42	32	21	5
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Enthusiasm has increased substantially among Democrats, with a small increase among Republicans. Republicans had a consistent enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in polls before July, but that has been erased now, as shown in Table 17. Independents have a quite low level of enthusiasm, and the percent of independents who said they were very enthusiastic fell from 24% in July to 16% in October.

Table 17: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Democrat
10/1-10/24	58	25	13	5
7/24-8/1/24	55	26	15	5
5/6-15/24	34	31	24	11
3/18-28/24	35	27	31	8
2/5-15/24	34	33	25	8
11/2-7/23	36	34	23	7
Independent
10/1-10/24	16	29	31	24
7/24-8/1/24	24	21	29	26
5/6-15/24	20	15	33	32
3/18-28/24	18	30	25	26
2/5-15/24	21	32	27	20
11/2-7/23	20	36	33	10
Republican
10/1-10/24	56	24	13	7
7/24-8/1/24	58	27	11	4
5/6-15/24	55	22	16	6
3/18-28/24	43	29	21	7
2/5-15/24	52	33	12	4
11/2-7/23	54	28	16	2
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

The race is very tight among the very and somewhat enthusiastic, with a slight Harris edge.  Trump has an edge among those who are not too or not at all enthusiastic, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Vote for Harris or Trump, by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Harris	Trump	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
Very enthusiastic	50	48	2	0
Somewhat enthusiastic	49	46	4	0
Not too/Not at all enthusiastic	34	39	15	11
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump]?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Confidence in elections

Looking back at the 2020 presidential election, 60% are very or somewhat confident that votes were accurately cast and counted, while 40% are not too or not at all confident. There has been little change in these opinions since 2021, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Confidence in accuracy of 2020 election

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Confidence
	Very/somewhat confident	Not too/not at all confident
10/1-10/24	60	40
2/5-15/24	58	42
11/2-7/23	56	44
9/18-25/23	60	40
7/7-12/23	64	36
1/9-20/23	61	38
11/15-22/22	68	32
9/7-14/22	64	36
7/5-12/22	61	39
5/9-19/22	58	41
3/14-24/22	63	37
1/10-21/22	66	34
11/1-10/21	64	36
9/7-16/21	61	39
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Republicans remain far less confident in the accuracy of the 2020 election than are independents or Democrats, a fact that has changed little over the past four years. The results in the current poll are shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Confidence in 2020 accuracy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Confidence
	Very/somewhat confident	Not too/not at all confident
Republican	33	67
Independent	57	43
Democrat	89	11
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Looking to this November’s election, 65% are very or somewhat confident that the votes will be accurately cast and counted, with 35% are not too or not at all confident in the accuracy of the voting. This is slightly more confidence than currently expressed in the 2020 election (see Table 19 above). The partisan divide is also quite substantial. Though Republicans remain skeptical, they currently express more confidence in the upcoming election than in the previous one. Table 21 shows the views about the upcoming election.

Table 21: Confidence in 2024 accuracy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Confidence
	Very/somewhat confident	Not too/not at all confident
Republican	44	56
Independent	59	41
Democrat	88	12
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president will be accurately cast and counted in the 2024 election?

Biden and Trump presidential job approval

Biden’s job approval in October stands at 39% with disapproval at 61%, unchanged since July. Table 22 shows the recent trend in job approval.

Table 22: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
10/1-10/24	39	61	14	25	18	43
7/24-8/1/24	39	61	16	23	19	42
5/6-15/24	40	60	13	27	17	44
3/18-28/24	40	60	12	27	14	46
2/5-15/24	38	62	12	26	18	43
11/2-7/23	40	60	13	26	16	45
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In October, 50% approved and 50% disapproved. Trump’s job approval has increased slightly in the poll since May. The recent trend is shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Trump retrospective job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
10/1-10/24	50	50	27	23	12	37
7/24-8/1/24	48	52	29	19	10	42
5/6-15/24	46	54	26	20	13	41
3/18-28/24	47	53	25	22	12	40
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president?

A final look at Biden vs Trump since 2023

The Marquette Law School Poll found a small but consistent Trump advantage over Biden among registered voters since May 2023, while Biden had a consistent edge from November 2021 through November 2022. The race was tied in January and March 2023. The full trend, including those saying they would vote for someone else or not vote, is shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump including someone else, Nov. 2021-July 2024

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Vote
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
7/24-8/1/24	43	47	11	0
5/6-15/24	40	44	14	2
3/18-28/24	42	44	13	2
2/5-15/24	42	45	9	4
11/2-7/23	40	42	15	2
9/18-25/23	39	44	12	4
7/7-12/23	37	38	19	5
5/8-18/23	34	41	19	7
3/13-22/23	38	38	20	4
1/9-20/23	40	40	17	3
11/15-22/22	44	34	19	4
9/7-14/22	42	36	19	3
3/14-24/22	43	38	16	4
1/10-21/22	45	33	18	4
11/1-10/21	43	35	18	4
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options included someone else and wouldn’t vote)

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Oct. 1-10, 2024, interviewing 886 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 699, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) are held for release on Oct. 17. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.