Presidential choices in Wisconsin hold steady in new Marquette Law School Poll results, with Harris at 52% and Trump at 48%

Baldwin leads Hovde 53%-46% in Senate race

Also:

  • Enthusiasm among voters is strong among supporters of both parties
  • 46% of those polled say they have stopped talking to someone about politics because of presidential race
  • Satisfaction with public schools and overall concern about property taxes both increase

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 52% and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 48% in head-to-head matchups among both registered voters and among likely voters. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. Both of these results match those of the last poll conducted in early September.

In a multicandidate race, Harris also leads by 4 percentage points with 48% to Trump’s 44%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 3%, the Party for Socialism and Liberation’s Claudia De la Cruz 0%, Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry 1%, and independent Cornel West 0%, among registered voters. Among likely voters it is Harris 49%, Trump 44%, Kennedy 3%, De la Cruz 0%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry 1%, and West 0%.

Kennedy suspended his campaign on Aug. 23 but remains on the Wisconsin ballot. In the most recent previous poll, in early September, after he had ended his campaign, Kennedy received 6%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 53% to Eric Hovde’s 46% among registered voters. Among likely voters, the results are the same. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. Among registered voters, when initially asked, Baldwin receives 48% and Hovde 43%, with 10% saying they are undecided. Among likely voters, 9% are undecided, while Baldwin remains at 48% and Hovde remains at 43%.

When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, Baldwin receives 51%, Hovde 45%, Phil Anderson, the “Disrupt the Corruption Party” candidate, receives 1%, and Thomas Leager, of the “America First” Party, receives 1%, among registered voters. These results are also the same with likely voters.

The survey was conducted Sept. 18-26, 2024, interviewing 882 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, and 798 likely voters, with the same margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points as for registered voters. (All results are stated as percentages.)

When asked who they think is likely to win the presidential election in November, 50% say Harris will definitely or probably win, while 39% say Trump will definitely or probably win and 11% say they don’t know. There has been an increase in the perceived chance of a Harris win since she entered the race in July, along with a decline in the perception of Trump’s chances, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Who is likely to win the November election

Among registered voters

Poll datesWho is likely to win?
HarrisTrumpDon’t know
9/18-26/24503911
8/28-9/5/24484111
7/24-8/1/24385111
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election: [Kamala Harris, the Democrat] or [Donald Trump, the Republican]?

Stopped talking about politics

Poll respondents have been asked since 2016 if they have stopped talking about politics with someone because of disagreements over the election for president. In this poll, 46% say there is someone they’ve stopped talking to about politics, with 54% saying this hasn’t happened. This is higher than the past two cycles: In 2020, 36% said they had stopped talking about politics with someone, and in 2016 34% had stopped talking. A similar question was asked in May 2012 about not talking due to the recall election of Gov. Scott Walker. In that poll, 35% said they had stopped talking to someone about politics.

Enthusiasm

Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from June to July, as shown in Table 2, and has continued to increase modestly. In the current survey, 67% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, similar to 63% in early September. For comparison, in the previous presidential cycle in late September 2020, 64% were very enthusiastic.

Table 2: Enthusiasm to vote in the November election

Among registered voters

Poll datesEnthusiasm
VerySomewhatNot tooNot at all
9/18-26/246718123
8/28-9/5/246320126
7/24-8/1/246121154
6/12-20/2446211914
4/3-10/2447221812
1/24-31/244925179
10/26-11/2/234628196
9/30-10/4/206417710
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Enthusiasm among Democrats is slightly higher than among Republicans in this poll, with 71% of Democrats saying they are very enthusiastic and 67% of Republicans also very enthusiastic. This represents an increase of enthusiasm among Republicans from 63% in early September, with little change for Democrats, who were at 72% in the previous poll.

Independents are considerably more enthusiastic than in early September, with 50% very enthusiastic now, up from 31% in the previous poll. The full trends by party are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Enthusiasm to vote in the November election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Poll datesEnthusiasm
VerySomewhatNot tooNot at all
Democrat
9/18-26/24712082
8/28-9/5/24721982
7/24-8/1/246219154
6/12-20/2440242016
Independent
9/18-26/2450191912
8/28-9/5/2431292414
7/24-8/1/2437202617
6/12-20/2430172329
Republican
9/18-26/246717133
8/28-9/5/246319117
7/24-8/1/246422121
6/12-20/245719168
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Those who are very or somewhat enthusiastic give Harris a lead, while those who are not too or not at all enthusiastic give Trump an advantage, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Vote for Harris or Trump, by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

EnthusiasticVote choice 2024
Kamala HarrisDonald Trump
Very/somewhat5248
Not too/not at all4951
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Favorability to presidential and vice-presidential candidates

Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50% of registered voters, with 3% saying they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. In the prior poll, Harris was seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 51%, with 2% who didn’t have an opinion. The favorability trend for Harris since July is shown in Table 5. Favorability to Harris was not asked earlier in the year.

Table 5: Favorability to Harris

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24-347503
8/28-9/5/24-447512
7/24-8/1/24-1241536
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Favorable ratings of Trump increased by 1 point and unfavorable ratings declined by 1 point from early September to late September. His net favorable ratings have improved from those of late 2023, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Favorability to Trump

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24-1144551
8/28-9/5/24-1343560
7/24-8/1/24-1044542
6/12-20/24-1641572
4/3-10/24-1343561
1/24-31/24-1840581
10/26-11/2/23-2437612
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Favorability toward Democratic President Joe Biden remains low, at 42% favorable with his unfavorable rating at 56%. The trend for Biden since late 2023 is shown in Table 7. Biden’s net favorability has remained slightly worse than Trump’s since April.

Table 7: Favorability to Biden

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24-1442562
8/28-9/5/24-1542571
7/24-8/1/24-1740572
6/12-20/24-1840581
4/3-10/24-1940591
1/24-31/24-1741581
10/26-11/2/23-1442562
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

The percentage of those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” has declined since Harris entered the race in July. For Harris and Trump, 6% now have an unfavorable view of both, declining from 11% in July. In the current poll, 47% have a favorable view of Harris and an unfavorable view to Trump, while 43% have a favorable view of Trump and an unfavorable one of Harris. Less than 0.5% have a favorable view of both. The trend in combined favorability is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Combined favorability to Harris and Trump

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability to both Harris and Trump
KH fav, DT favKH fav, DT unfavKH unfav, DT favKH unfav, DT unfavDK KH or DT
9/18-26/240474363
8/28-9/5/240464283
7/24-8/1/2414041117
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Vice-presidential candidates

Democratic vice-presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz is viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 38%, with 16% saying they haven’t heard enough. Walz has a net positive favorable rating, unlike the other presidential and vice-presidential candidates. His trend is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Favorability to Walz

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
9/18-26/247453816
8/28-9/5/246433719
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance is seen favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 51%, with 11% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Fewer respondents say they haven’t heard enough about Vance than say that of Walz. The trend is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Favorability to Vance

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24-13385111
8/28-9/5/24-10374716
7/24-8/1/24-10314128
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Favorability of all presidential and vice-presidential candidates

Table 11 shows the favorability ratings including third-party candidates for president. Walz is the only candidate with a positive net favorability rating. Kennedy is the best known of the third-party candidates, all of whom are less well known than Harris or Trump.

Table 11: Favorability of all national candidates

Among registered voters

CandidateFavorability
Net favFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Harris-347503
Trump-1144551
Vance-13385111
Walz7453816
Kennedy-15365113
De la Cruz-52788
Oliver-42689
Stein-17102761
Terry-32590
West-1261875
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Characteristics of Harris and Trump

The perceived characteristics of Harris and Trump are shown in Table 12. More people see Trump as having strong accomplishments, while the two are virtually tied on being a strong leader. More see Trump as too old to be president and as having behaved corruptly. More people see Harris than see Trump as intelligent, honest, with the right temperament, and sharing the respondent’s values.

Table 12: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump

Among registered voters

CandidateHow well phrase describes
Very/somewhat wellNot too/not at all well
Is too old to be president
Harris1387
Trump6139
Shares your values
Harris5149
Trump4555
Has behaved corruptly
Harris4159
Trump6337
Strong record of accomplishments
Harris4555
Trump5248
Has the right temperament to be president
Harris5842
Trump4357
Is a strong leader
Harris5248
Trump5347
Is intelligent
Harris6040
Trump5446
Is honest
Harris5049
Trump4258
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)?

Issues in the presidential campaign

Table 13 shows which candidate respondents think would do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen by more respondents as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy, and he holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen by more respondents as doing a better job on abortion policy, ensuring fair and accurate elections, health care, and Medicare & Social Security.

Between 9% and 22% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each specific issue.

Table 13: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

IssueWho better
HarrisTrumpBoth about the sameNeither good
Immigration and border security374986
Israel-Hamas war3345913
The economy425054
Foreign relations454745
Ensuring fair and accurate election493966
Medicare & Social Security503956
Health care493767
Abortion policy533647
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Most important issues

Respondents were asked which of eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue by a large margin, followed by abortion policy and immigration, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Most important issues

Among registered voters

ResponsePercent
The economy37
Immigration and border security15
Abortion policy15
Medicare & Social Security9
Ensuring fair and accurate elections7
Health care7
Foreign relations4
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza2
Don’t know4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 15. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with Medicare & Social Security a distant second. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, with the economy second.

Table 15: Most important issues by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDIssue
The economyImmigration and border securityHealth careForeign relationsAbortion policyMedicare & Social SecurityThe war between Israel and Hamas in GazaEnsuring fair and accurate electionsDon’t know
Republican53311235131
Independent396599124510
Democrat19113531132115
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

More than two-thirds of registered voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and just under one-third say it should be illegal in all or most cases. This has changed little since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Abortion opinion trend

Among registered voters

Poll datesOpinion
Legal in all casesLegal in most casesIllegal in most casesIllegal in all casesDon’t know
9/18-26/2434352750
8/28-9/5/2431352850
7/24-8/1/2433342751
6/12-20/2434322680
4/3-10/2428362691
6/8-13/2332342561
8/10-15/2230352553
6/14-20/22273124115
10/26-31/21233823114
2/19-23/20183722156
10/24-28/18262924144
9/12-16/1826362196
7/11-15/18273618116
10/23-26/14243424153
10/21-24/13263625102
10/25-28/12283223124
10/11-14/12253425123
9/27-30/12253523123
9/13-16/12263423133
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Perceived candidate ideology

Harris is seen as very liberal by 51% of respondents, and Trump is seen as very conservative by 52%. Harris is seen as moderate by 15%, while 10% see Trump that way.

There has been little change in these perceptions since the most recent previous poll in early September.

In contrast to their view of the candidates, voters see themselves as closer to the center, with 34% describing themselves as moderate, 11% as very liberal, and 12% as very conservative. Self-described ideology has also remained stable over the two polls. The full set of results is shown in in Table 17.

Table 17: Perceived candidate ideology

Among registered voters

Poll datesIdeology
Very conservativeSomewhat conservativeModerateSomewhat liberalVery liberal
Harris
9/18-26/2422153051
8/28-9/5/2432162752
Trump
9/18-26/2452341012
8/28-9/5/2453321023
Self-description
9/18-26/241225341811
8/28-9/5/241425341611
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…

Vote by ideology

Presidential vote is closely aligned with the respondent’s self-described ideology, though there is more support for Harris among those somewhat conservative than there is Trump support among those somewhat liberal, as shown in Table 18. A substantial majority of moderates support Harris. Overall, there are more conservatives, 37%, than liberals, 29%, while moderates make up 34% of registered voters.

Table 18: Vote by political ideology

Among registered voters

Self descriptionVote
Kamala HarrisDonald Trump
Very conservative199
Somewhat conservative1189
Moderate6139
Somewhat liberal982
Very liberal964
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [Former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]?

Vote by party ID

Table 19 shows presidential vote by party identification in the polls since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate. Democratic support for Harris is remarkably high in all three polls, at 97% to 100%. Republican support for Trump is high at 94% to 95%, but there is a small 5% to 6% Republican vote for Harris. These results have been consistent in all three polls with slight variation.

Independents, in contrast to partisans, have shifted from July, when they preferred Trump over Harris, 54% to 44%. That balance shifted sharply in early September, with independents supporting Harris 60% to 40% over Trump, and in late September they backed Harris 61% to 39% for Trump. This shift among independents, and the small Republican vote for Harris, are the primary reasons for Harris’ current 4-percentage-point lead among registered voters. Trump had a 1-percentage-point edge in July among registered voters.

Table 19: Vote for Harris or Trump, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Kamala HarrisDonald TrumpHaven’t decided
9/18-26/24
Republican6940
Independent61390
Democrat9910
8/28-9/5/24
Republican5950
Independent60401
Democrat10000
7/24-8/1/24
Republican6940
Independent44541
Democrat9721
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [Former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]?

Third-party vote trends

The trend in vote preference including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 20. The total third-party vote has declined from 22% in January to 6% in late September, with Kennedy falling from 16% to 3% over that time among registered voters. The current level of third-party vote preference is close to the recent high of 5.5% of the actual vote in 2016 and much higher than the 1.5% in 2020. Oliver was not included prior to the June poll, and Terry appeared for the first time in July. De la Cruz appears here for the first time.

Table 20: Vote including third-party candidates

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote choice
HarrisBidenTrumpKennedyDe la CruzOliverSteinTerryWest
9/18-26/2448NA44301110
8/28-9/5/2447NA436NA1101
7/24-8/1/2445NA438NA1100
6/12-20/24NA40438NA22NA4
4/3-10/24NA404113NANA3NA2
1/24-31/24NA374016NANA4NA2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Who would you vote for if the candidates were [Democrat Kamala Harris], [Republican Donald Trump], [independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr], [Libertarian Chase Oliver], [the Green Party’s Jill Stein], [Constitution Party’s Randall Terry], [independent Cornel West] or [the Party for Socialism and Liberation’s Claudia De la Cruz]?

Senate vote by party identification

As shown in Table 21, Baldwin receives 99% among Democratic registered voters and Hovde 1%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 91%, while Baldwin takes 8%. Independents favor Baldwin by 62% to Hovde’s 37%. Baldwin’s support among independents increased in both September polls over the levels in June and July. Partisans have become slightly more loyal to their nominees.

Table 21: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Tammy BaldwinEric HovdeHaven’t decided
9/18-26/24
Republican8911
Independent62370
Democrat9910
8/28-9/5/24
Republican4941
Independent65331
Democrat9910
7/24-8/1/24
Republican11881
Independent52461
Democrat9821
6/12-20/24
Republican12881
Independent52480
Democrat9550
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between (Eric Hovde, the Republican), and (Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat), would you vote for (Eric Hovde) or for (Tammy Baldwin) or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for (Hovde) or for (Baldwin)?

The multicandidate Senate vote by party identification in late September is shown in Table 22. Third-party candidate support is highest among independents with little support from Republicans and Democrats.

Table 22: Multicandidate senate vote

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
BaldwinHovdeAndersonLeagerDon’t know
9/18-26/24
Republican591112
Independent6030641
Democrat980100
8/28-9/5/24
Republican491221
Independent6224571
Democrat991010
7/24-8/1/24
Republican888220
Independent4234978
Democrat962110
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: If the U.S. Senate ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde, Disrupt the Corruption Party’s Phil Anderson, or America First Party’s Thomas Leage?

Senate candidate favorability

In the current survey Baldwin’s favorable rating is 47% and her unfavorable rating 47%, with 6% who don’t know enough about her. Baldwin’s net favorable rating has ranged from -3 to +5 and is currently dead even at 0.

Hovde is seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 45%, with 18% who haven’t heard enough. The number of those without an opinion of Hovde has declined from 82% in January to 18% in September. His net favorable rating has ranged from -2 to -13 from January to September, and is currently -9, unchanged from early September.

These favorability trends are shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Favorability to Senate candidates

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Tammy Baldwin
9/18-26/24047476
8/28-9/5/24147467
7/24-8/1/240444412
6/12-20/241454411
4/3-10/245474211
1/24-31/24-3424513
10/26-11/2/23-2414315
6/8-13/233403722
Eric Hovde
9/18-26/24-9364518
8/28-9/5/24-9344322
7/24-8/1/24-13243738
6/12-20/24-9233244
4/3-10/24-5192456
1/24-31/24-27982
6/8-13/23-44885
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

The third-party candidates for Senate are unfamiliar to the vast majority of registered voters. Phil Anderson is seen favorably by 3%, unfavorably by 4%, and 90% say they haven’t heard enough. Another 3% say they don’t know. Thomas Leager is seen favorably by 2% and unfavorably by 4%, with 90% who haven’t heard enough and 3% who don’t know.

Perceived characteristics of Senate candidates

Baldwin has her largest advantage over Hovde on being seen as committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin, with 60% saying this describes her, while 51% say it describes Hovde.

Baldwin also has a 9-point edge on being seen as someone who cares about people like the respondent, 56% to Hovde’s 47%.

The two are closer to equal in being seen as someone who will work to solve our national problems, with 54% saying this describes Baldwin and 50% saying this describes Hovde. The full results are shown in Table 24.

Table 24: How well does this phrase describe Baldwin or Hovde

Among registered voters

CandidateHow well phrase describes
Very/somewhat wellNot too/not at all well
Is committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin
Baldwin6040
Hovde5148
Is someone who cares about people like me
Baldwin5643
Hovde4752
Will work to solve our national problems
Baldwin5446
Hovde5049
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Tammy Baldwin)(Eric Hovde)?

Perceived Senate candidate ideology

Baldwin is seen as very or somewhat liberal by 79% and Hovde is seen as very or somewhat conservative by 87%. Baldwin is seen as moderate by 16% and Hovde as moderate by 9%. More see Hovde as very conservative, 55%, than see Baldwin as very liberal, 45%. The results, also including the respondent’s self-description, are shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Perceived senate candidate ideology and also respondents’ self-described ideology

Among registered voters

IndividualIdeology
Very conservativeSomewhat conservativeModerateSomewhat liberalVery liberal
Baldwin22163445
Hovde5532912
Self-description1225341811
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…

Senate vote by respondent’s ideological self-description

Table 26 shows conservative voters strongly prefer Hovde, while liberal voters strongly prefer Baldwin. A substantial majority of moderate voters also prefer Baldwin. There are more conservatives for Baldwin than there are liberals for Hovde by a margin of 11% to 6%.

Table 26: Vote for Senate, by political ideology

Among registered voters

Self descriptionVote
Tammy BaldwinEric Hovde
Very conservative198
Somewhat conservative1087
Moderate6535
Somewhat liberal982
Very liberal964
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between [Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat,] and [Eric Hovde, the Republican,] would you vote for [Tammy Baldwin], or for [Eric Hovde or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Baldwin], or for [Hovde]?

Biden and Trump presidential job approval

Biden’s job approval stands at 43% with disapproval at 56%, a 2-percentage point increase in approval and a 2-percentage point decrease in disapproval. Table 27 shows the recent trend in job approval.

Table 27: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll datesJob approval
Total approveTotal disapproveStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
9/18-26/2443561528948
8/28-9/5/24415816251147
7/24-8/1/24425718231245
6/12-20/24405716241047
4/3-10/2440571624849
1/24-31/24415818231048
10/26-11/2/23425717251244
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In this late September poll, 47% approved and 52% disapproved, an increase in approval of 1 percentage point since early September and a decrease in disapproval of 2 percentage points. For comparison, Trump’s approval in the last Marquette Law School Poll before the 2020 election was 47% approve and 52% disapprove. The recent trend is shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Trump retrospective job approval

Among registered voters

Poll datesJob approval
Total approveTotal disapproveStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
9/18-26/2447523512845
8/28-9/5/2446543116846
7/24-8/1/2448513216843
6/12-20/2447523016844
4/3-10/2447522621943
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president?

Direction of the state, economic conditions, and personal financial situation

The percentage saying the state is headed in the right direction dipped 2 points, and the percentage saying the state is off on the wrong track rose by 3 points since the early September poll. The full trend is shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Direction of the state

Among registered voters

Poll datesDirection
Right directionWrong track
9/18-26/244456
8/28-9/5/244653
6/12-20/244555
4/3-10/244159
1/24-31/244257
10/26-11/2/233662
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 5%, as good by 32%, as not so good by 30%, and as poor by 33%. Views of the economy have fluctuated modestly since November 2023, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll datesNational economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
9/18-26/245323033
8/28-9/5/243323530
7/24-8/1/245283333
6/12-20/244303432
4/3-10/245283828
1/24-31/246323428
10/26-11/2/233243637
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 48% say they are living comfortably, while 37% say they are just getting by and 16% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 31. The percentage living comfortably has returned to the level of November 2023 at 48%. The percentages just getting by and struggling have each increased by 1 percentage point since November 2023.

Table 31: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll datesFinancial situation
Living comfortablyJust getting byStruggling
9/18-26/24483716
8/28-9/5/24443817
7/24-8/1/24444015
6/12-20/24463717
4/3-10/24454015
1/24-31/24493813
10/26-11/2/23483615
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Property taxes, school funding, and satisfaction with public schools

Asked which is more important, reducing property taxes or increasing funding for schools, the percentage saying reducing property taxes is more important has increased substantially since 2018, while those saying increasing funding for public schools has declined. In the current survey, 56% say reducing property taxes is more important, while 44% say increasing spending on schools is more important. In early October 2018, by contrast, 37% said reducing property taxes was more important and 57% said school spending was more important. There has been a continued increase in concern about property taxes since 2018, while support for increased spending on public schools has steadily declined. Support for school spending rose from early 2013 to its peak in early 2018 before the trend reversed in the second half of 2018. The full trend is shown in Table 32.

Table 32: Reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools

Among registered voters

Poll datesWhich more important
Reducing property taxesIncreasing spending on public schoolsDon’t know
9/18-26/2456441
10/26-11/2/2352471
6/8-13/2350473
10/24-11/1/2246485
10/3-9/2242525
9/6-11/2241515
8/10-15/2243525
4/19-24/2246504
8/3-8/2142525
2/19-23/2038565
1/8-12/2041554
1/16-20/1939556
10/24-28/1840554
10/3-7/1837576
9/12-16/1838575
8/15-19/1832615
6/13-17/1835595
2/25-3/1/1833633
4/7-10/1540545
5/6-9/1349464
3/11-13/1349464
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools?

Satisfaction with public schools in the respondent’s community increased in September after dropping in the June Marquette poll. Among those with an opinion, 64% are very satisfied or satisfied, and 35% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. In June, 52% were very satisfied or satisfied and 47% were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. The June poll followed news of financial errors in the Milwaukee Public Schools and the resignation of the MPS superintendent. Current satisfaction has returned to the previous level seen in November 2023, although it remains lower overall than in previous years. The full trend in satisfaction with schools is shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Satisfaction with public schools

Among registered voters

Poll datesSatisfaction
Very satisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfiedVery dissatisfied
9/18-26/2412522510
6/12-20/248442720
10/26-11/2/2312522611
6/8-13/231455238
9/6-11/2220472112
4/19-24/2217492014
10/26-31/2128392014
8/3-8/212452177
1/8-12/2016482412
9/12-16/182052199
3/13-16/172752156
4/7-10/152652165
5/6-9/132054188
3/11-13/132560122
5/23-26/122451187
5/9-12/122548207
4/26-29/1225461811
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community?
Note: Among those with an opinion

Satisfaction with schools dipped in all regions of the state in the June poll but returned to the immediate previous levels in September. Table 34 shows satisfaction by region in September and June.

Table 34: Satisfaction with public schools by region

Among registered voters

 Satisfaction
RegionVery satisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfiedVery dissatisfied
9/18-26/24
MKE City2314027
Rest of MKE13492711
MSN965205
GB/Appleton10572111
Rest of state1948257
6/12-20/24
MKE City2204137
Rest of MKE8482419
MSN8433119
GB/Appleton10452916
Rest of state9472419
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community?
Note: Among those with an opinion

Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court

Table 35 shows the job performance ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, whose approval is 48% and disapproval is 46%. This is a 3-percentage point dip in approval since early September, and the first time Evers’s approval has been below 50% since November 2023. His disapproval rose 2 percentage points since early September.

Table 35: Approval of Tony Evers’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll datesApproval
ApproveDisapproveDon’t know
9/18-26/2448465
8/28-9/5/2451445
7/24-8/1/2451445
6/12-20/2451446
4/3-10/2452443
1/24-31/2451445
10/26-11/2/2353462
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

Approval of the legislature is shown in Table 36. Disapproval has remained greater than approval since November 2023, with little change.

Table 36: Approval of the Wisconsin legislature’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll datesApproval
ApproveDisapproveDon’t know
9/18-26/24335512
7/24-8/1/24335412
4/3-10/2434569
1/24-31/2434588
10/26-11/2/2340573
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?

Approval of the way the Wisconsin Supreme Court is handling its job is shown in Table 37. Approval has remained in the mid-40% range since January, down from 51% in November 2023. Disapproval has ranged from 37% to 43%. A relatively high percentage, 15%, say they don’t have an opinion of the Court’s performance.

Table 37: Approval of the state Supreme Court’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll datesApproval
ApproveDisapproveDon’t know
9/18-26/24444015
7/24-8/1/24463717
4/3-10/24463915
1/24-31/24454313
10/26-11/2/2351435
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?

Favorability to Sen. Ron Johnson

Favorability to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is shown in Table 38. Johnson’s net favorability has improved slightly since January, but his overall rating remains more unfavorable than favorable.

Table 38: Ron Johnson favorability

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24-9404911
8/28-9/5/24-10394912
7/24-8/1/24-11364717
6/12-20/24-12385011
4/3-10/24-12395111
1/24-31/24-1438529
10/26-11/2/23-10405010
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted Sept. 18-26, 2024, interviewing 882 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. The sample contains 798 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the same as for registered voters.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 668 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list, and 214 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 768 respondents and with 114 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 34% Republican, 32% Democratic and 34% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin finds 52% of registered voters support Harris, 48% support Trump

Democrats have gained an enthusiasm advantage over Republicans; Baldwin continues to hold lead over Hovde in U.S. Senate race

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 52% of registered voters and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 48% in a head-to-head matchup in the race for president. Among likely voters, it is also Harris as the choice of 52% and Trump of 48%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.

In the Marquette Law School Poll’s July survey of Wisconsin, Harris received 49% and Trump 50% among registered voters, with the numbers reversing to Harris at 50% and Trump’s 49% among likely voters.

In a multicandidate race, Harris is the choice of 47% and Trump 43%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 6%, Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, independent Cornel West 1%, and Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry 0% among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Harris 48%, Trump 43%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry 1%, and West 1%.

Kennedy suspended his campaign on Aug. 23, prior to the poll’s survey entering the field, but remains on the Wisconsin ballot. A large majority, 86%, said they had heard he had ended his campaign, while 14% had not heard.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% to Eric Hovde’s 48% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 52% and Hovde receives 47%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. When initially asked, Baldwin receives 48% and Hovde 44%, while 8% say they are undecided, among registered voters.

When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, Baldwin receives 51%, Hovde 45%, Phil Anderson (the “Disrupt the Corruption” party candidate) receives 2%, and Thomas Leager (of the “America First” party) receives 2% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 51% and Hovde 45%, with 2% for Anderson and 2% for Leager.

The survey was conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024, interviewing 822 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points, The survey included 738 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points. (All results are stated as percentages.)

While the race for president remains very close in Wisconsin, when asked who they think is likely to win in November, 48% say Harris will definitely or probably win, while 41% say Trump will definitely or probably win and 11% say they don’t know. In July, by contrast, 39% said Harris would win, 51% said Trump would win, and 11% didn’t know.

Source of political division

In October 2013 we asked voters:

Which comes closer to your view about political divisions in Washington these days? Growing political divisions among elected officials reflect a more divided American society OR growing political divisions are mostly among elected officials and not American society in general?

In 2013, 38% said political divisions reflect a more divided society and 53% said divisions were mostly among elected officials.

Eleven years later, in September 2024, 65% say divisions are due to a more divided society, and 34% say divisions are mostly among elected officials.

Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting

Enthusiasm about voting this November increased sharply from June to July, as shown in Table 1. The July enthusiasm held in September, as 63% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, similar to 61% in July. For comparison, in the previous presidential cycle in early September 2020, 65% were very enthusiastic.

Table 1: Enthusiasm to vote in November election

Among registered voters

Poll datesEnthusiasm
VerySomewhatNot tooNot at all
8/28-9/5/246320126
7/24-8/1/246121154
6/12-20/2446211914
4/3-10/2447221812
1/24-31/244925179
10/26-11/2/234628196
8/30-9/3/20651996
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?


Democrats now more enthusiastic than Republicans

Enthusiasm has increased among Democrats. In the September survey, 72% say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting. That is substantially higher than in June, when 40% were “very enthusiastic.” The percentage of “very enthusiastic” Republicans rose from 57% in June to 64% in July and declined by 1 percentage point to 63% in September. Republicans held a substantial enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in June, which Democrats have now erased.

Independents are less enthusiastic than supporters of either party. Enthusiasm among independents rose from June to July but declined in September to a single point higher than in June. These results are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Poll datesEnthusiasm
VerySomewhatNot tooNot at all
Democrat
8/28-9/5/24721982
7/24-8/1/246219154
6/12-20/2440242016
Independent
8/28-9/5/2431292414
7/24-8/1/2437202617
6/12-20/2430172329
Republican
8/28-9/5/246319117
7/24-8/1/246422121
6/12-20/245719168
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Harris leads among the very or somewhat enthusiastic

Those who are very or somewhat enthusiastic give Harris a lead, while those who are not too enthusiastic only slightly prefer Harris and those not at all enthusiastic give Trump a large margin, as shown in Table 3. This reverses the pattern when President Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate. Biden trailed Trump among the more enthusiastic voters but held an advantage among with those who were less enthusiastic.

Table 3: Vote for Harris or Trump, by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

EnthusiasmVote choice 2024
Kamala HarrisDonald Trump
Very enthusiastic5347
Somewhat enthusiastic5347
Not too enthusiastic5149
Not at all enthusiastic3564
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Favorability to presidential and vice-presidential candidates

 

Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 51% of registered voters, with 2% saying they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. In July, Harris was seen favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 53%, with 6% who didn’t have an opinion.

In September, favorability toward Trump was virtually unchanged from July, with 43% favorable, 56% unfavorable, and less than 1% without an opinion. In July, his favorability was 44% and unfavorability 54%, with 2% lacking an opinion.

Favorability toward Biden remains low at 42% favorable with his unfavorable rating at 57%. In July, he was seen favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 57%.

Those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” declined from July to September. For Harris and Trump, 11% had an unfavorable view of both in July and 8% in September. In September, 46% have a favorable view of Harris and an unfavorable view to Trump, while 42% have a favorable view of Trump and an unfavorable one of Harris. Less than 0.5% have a favorable view of both. Negative opinions of both Biden and Trump declined by 1 percentage point from July to September, to 13%.

Vice-presidential candidates

 

Democratic vice-presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 37%, with 19% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.

Walz is seen quite favorably by Democrats and quite unfavorably by Republicans. Independents have a more favorable than unfavorable opinion of Walz. A substantial percentage of each group say they haven’t heard enough about Walz; this is especially so among independents, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Walz favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Republican67221
Independent412731
Democrat84313
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Walz is seen as an excellent pick for the vice-president slot by 29%, as a good choice by 18%, as a fair choice by 10%, and as a poor selection by 33%, with 11% who say they don’t know. Among Democrats, 90% rate the choice of Walz as excellent or good, while half of independents say it is excellent or good and most Republicans rate it poor, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Walz as VP pick, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDRate choice of Walz as VP
ExcellentGoodFairPoorDon’t know
Republican34116715
Independent2624132116
Democrat5931704
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: How would you rate Harris’ choice of Walz for vice president? Would you rate this choice as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Republican vice-presidential nominee Ohio Sen. JD Vance is seen favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 47%, with 16% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance is seen much more favorably by Republicans but is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially by Democrats, as shown in Table 6. Substantial percentages of each partisan group, and especially independents, say they have not yet formed an opinion of Vance.

Table 6: Vance favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Republican75817
Independent224829
Democrat1909
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Favorability of all presidential and vice-presidential candidates

 

Table 7 shows the favorability ratings, including those for third-party candidates for president and for Walz and Vance. Walz is the only candidate with a positive net favorability rating. Kennedy is the best known of the third-party candidates, all of whom are less well known than Harris or Trump.

Table 7: Favorability of all national candidates

Among registered voters

CandidateFavorability
Net favFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Harris-447512
Trump-1343560
Vance-10374716
Walz6433719
Kennedy-8384616
Oliver-51690
Stein-1992862
Terry-41591
West-1091970
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Walz and Vance are about equally well known, with 19% saying they haven’t heard enough about Walz and 16% saying the same for Vance. Walz, though, is better known in the western parts of Wisconsin, where some areas are included in media markets for Minneapolis-St. Paul and Duluth-Superior. In addition, the La Crosse-Eau Claire market carries some Minnesota political advertising and news coverage. Among Wisconsin voters in those three media markets, 13% say they haven’t heard enough about Walz, compared to 20% in the rest of the state’s media markets who haven’t heard enough about him. He is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 54% in the western media markets, which are more Republican-leaning than the state as a whole, while in the other markets his favorable rating is 45% and his unfavorable rating is 35%.

Characteristics of Harris and Trump

 

The perceived characteristics of Harris and of Trump are shown in Table 8. More people see Trump as having strong accomplishments, and the two candidates are virtually tied on being a strong leader. More see Trump as too old to be president and as having behaved corruptly.

More people see Harris than Trump as intelligent and honest, as having the right temperament and communications skills, and as sharing the respondent’s values.

Table 8: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump

Among registered voters

CandidateHow well phrase describes
Very/somewhat wellNot too/not at all well
Is too old to be president
Harris1585
Trump5940
Shares your values
Harris5149
Trump4555
Has behaved corruptly
Harris3861
Trump6237
Strong record of accomplishments
Harris4653
Trump5347
Has the right temperament to be president
Harris5743
Trump4257
Is a strong leader
Harris5248
Trump5446
Is intelligent
Harris5842
Trump5347
Is honest
Harris5347
Trump4158
Has communications skills to be president
Harris5446
Trump4852
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)?

Issues in the presidential campaign

 

Table 9 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, the economy, and, with a slight edge, handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, ensuring fair and accurate elections, health care, and Medicare & Social Security.

Between 8% and 18% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.

Table 9: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

IssueWho better
HarrisTrumpBoth about the sameNeither good
Immigration and border security355267
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza3745810
The economy425053
Foreign relations434665
Medicare & Social Security483877
Health care493669
Ensuring fair and accurate elections503767
Abortion policy513658
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Most important issues

 

Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue by a large margin, followed by abortion policy and immigration, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Most important issues

Among registered voters

ResponsePercent
The economy41
Abortion policy15
Immigration and border security12
Medicare & Social Security9
Ensuring fair and accurate elections9
Health care5
Foreign relations3
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza2
Don’t know3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Partisans differ on which issues are the most important, as shown in Table 11. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with Medicare & Social Security a distant second. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, with the economy just one percentage point lower, followed by Medicare & Social Security.

Table 11: Most important issues, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDIssue
The economyImmigration and border securityHealthcareForeign relationsAbortion policyMedicare & Social SecurityThe war between Israel and Hamas in GazaEnsuring fair and accurate electionsDon’t know
Republican55232362151
Independent42773812679
Democrat2609227163134
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Opinion on deporting immigrants

Support for deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally varies depending on the framing of the issue. A random half-sample of the survey was asked:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?

With this wording, 65% favor deportation and 35% are opposed.

The other half-sample was asked:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?

When worded this way, 49% favor deportations and 51% are opposed.

Opinion on abortion

Two-thirds of registered voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and one third say it should be illegal in all or most cases. This has changed little since Roe v. Wade was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Abortion opinion trend

Among registered voters

Poll datesOpinion
Legal in all casesLegal in most casesIllegal in most casesIllegal in all casesDon’t know
8/28-9/5/2431352850
7/24-8/1/2433342751
6/12-20/2434322680
4/3-10/2428362691
6/8-13/2332342561
8/10-15/2230352553
6/14-20/22273124115
10/26-31/21233823114
2/19-23/20183722156
10/24-28/18262924144
9/12-16/1826362196
7/11-15/18273618116
10/23-26/14243424153
10/21-24/13263625102
10/25-28/12283223124
10/11-14/12253425123
9/27-30/12253523123
9/13-16/12263423133
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Perceived candidate ideology

 

Harris is seen as very liberal by 52%, and Trump is seen as very conservative by 53%. Harris is seen as moderate by 16%, while 10% see Trump that way.

For the vice-presidential candidates, 45% see Walz as very liberal, while 61% see Vance as very conservative. Twice the number see Walz as moderate, 21%, as see Vance this way, 10%.

In contrast to their views of the candidates, voters see themselves as closer to the center, with 34% describing themselves as moderate. Eleven percent say of themselves that they are very liberal and 14% say very conservative. The full set of results is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Perceived candidate ideology

Among registered voters

CandidateIdeology
Very conservativeSomewhat conservativeModerateSomewhat liberalVery liberal
Harris32162752
Trump53321023
Walz13212945
Vance61241022
Self-description1425341611
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…

Vote by ideology

 

Presidential vote is closely aligned with the respondent’s self-described ideology, though there is slightly more conservative support for Harris than liberal support for Trump, as shown in Table 14. Moderates provide a substantial majority for Harris. Overall, there are more conservatives, 39%, than liberals, 27%, while moderates make up 34%.

Table 14: Vote by political ideology

Among registered voters

Self-descriptionVote
Kamala HarrisDonald Trump
Very conservative892
Somewhat conservative1288
Moderate6337
Somewhat liberal955
Very liberal1000
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]?

Third-party vote trends

 

The trend in vote preference when including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 15. The total third-party vote has declined from 22% in January to 9% in September, with Kennedy falling from 16% to 6% over that time among registered voters. The current level of total third-party voting in the survey is higher than the recent high in actual votes of 5.5% in 2016 and much higher than the 1.5% in 2020. Oliver was not included prior to the June poll and Terry appeared for the first time in July.

Table 15: Vote including third-party candidates

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote choice
HarrisBidenTrumpKennedyOliverSteinTerryWest
8/28-9/5/2447NA43611<.51
7/24-8/1/2445NA43811<.5<.5
6/12-20/24NA4043822NA4
4/3-10/24NA404113NA3NA2
1/24-31/24NA374016NA4NA2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West?

In the multicandidate ballot test in September, Kennedy receives more votes from Republicans, 8%, than from Democrats, 3%. Kennedy has consistently drawn more votes from Republicans than from Democrats throughout the year.

Independent voters are especially drawn to the third-party candidates. Kennedy receives 13% from independents, Oliver 3%, Stein 3%, Terry 2%, and West 1%. Among independents in the multicandidate race, Trump receives 28% and Harris 50%, a substantial shift from July.

These results are shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Multicandidate ballot by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
HarrisTrumpKennedyOliverSteinTerryWestDon’t know
8/28-9/5/24
Republican386811100
Independent50281333210
Democrat940301020
7/24-8/1/24
Republican4851000000
Independent35382132010
Democrat911422000
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West?

Senate vote by party identification

 

As shown in Table 17, among Democratic registered voters, Baldwin receives 99% and Hovde wins 1%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 94%, while Baldwin takes 4%. Independents favor Baldwin by 65% to Hovde’s 33%.

The vote among likely voters by party is virtually identical to that for registered voters.

Table 17: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde

September 2024

Party IDVote choice
Tammy BaldwinEric HovdeHaven’t decided
Registered voters
Republican4941
Independent65331
Democrat9910
Likely voters
Republican4951
Independent66331
Democrat9910
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between (Eric Hovde, the Republican), and (Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat), would you vote for (Eric Hovde) or for (Tammy Baldwin) or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for (Hovde) or for (Baldwin?)

The multicandidate Senate vote by party identification in September is shown in Table 18. Third-party candidate support is highest among independents and lowest among Democrats.

Table 18: Multicandidate Senate vote

Party IDVote choice
Poll datesDemocrat, Tammy BaldwinRepublican, Eric HovdeDisrupt the Corruption Party’s Phil AndersonAmerica First Party’s Thomas LeagerDon’t know
Registered voters
Republican8/28-9/5/24491221
Republican7/24-8/1/24888220
Independent8/28-9/5/246224571
Independent7/24-8/1/244234978
Democrat8/28-9/5/24991010
Democrat7/24-8/1/24962110
Likely voters
Republican8/28-9/5/24492221
Republican7/24-8/1/24889220
Independent8/28-9/5/246325561
Independent7/24-8/1/244436982
Democrat8/28-9/5/24981010
Democrat7/24-8/1/24980000
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: If the U.S. Senate ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde, Disrupt the Corruption Party’s Phil Anderson, or America First Party’s Thomas Leage?

Senate candidate favorability

 

In the current survey, Baldwin’s favorable rating is 47% and her unfavorable rating 46%, with 7% who don’t know enough about her. During 2024, Baldwin’s net favorable rating has ranged from a low of -3 to a high of +5 and is currently +1.

Hovde is seen favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 43%, with 22% who haven’t heard enough. Those without an opinion of Hovde have declined from 82% in January to 22% in September. His net favorable rating has ranged from -2 in January to a low of -13 in July and is currently -9.

These favorability trends are shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Favorability to Senate candidates

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Tammy Baldwin
8/28-9/5/24147467
7/24-8/1/240444412
6/12-20/241454411
4/3-10/245474211
1/24-31/24-3424513
10/26-11/2/23-2414315
6/8-13/233403722
Eric Hovde
8/28-9/5/24-9344322
7/24-8/1/24-13243738
6/12-20/24-9233244
4/3-10/24-5192456
1/24-31/24-27982
6/8-13/23-44885
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

The third-party candidates for Senate are unfamiliar to the vast majority of registered voters. Phil Anderson is seen favorably by 2%, unfavorably by 4%, 91% say they haven’t heard enough, and another 4% say they don’t know. Thomas Leager is seen favorably by 2%, unfavorably by 4%, with 90% who haven’t heard enough and 3% who don’t know.

Perceived characteristics of Senate candidates

 

Baldwin has her largest advantage over Hovde on being seen as committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin, with 61% saying this describes her, while 51% say it describes Hovde.

Baldwin has a smaller edge on being seen as someone who cares about people like the respondent, 54% to Hovde’s 46%.

The two are close to equal in being viewed as someone who will work to solve our national problems, with 53% saying this describes Baldwin and 50% saying this describes Hovde. The full results are shown in Table 20.

Table 20: How well does this phrase describe Baldwin or Hovde

Among registered voters

CandidateHow well phrase describes
Very/somewhat wellNot too/not at all well
Is committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin
Baldwin6139
Hovde5148
Is someone who cares about people like me
Baldwin5446
Hovde4653
Will work to solve our national problems
Baldwin5346
Hovde5049
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Tammy Baldwin)(Eric Hovde)?

Perceived Senate candidate ideology

 

Baldwin is seen as very or somewhat liberal by 76%, and Hovde is seen as very or somewhat conservative by 81%. Baldwin is seen as moderate by 18% and Hovde as moderate by 14%. More see Hovde as very conservative, 50%, than see Baldwin as very liberal, 43%. The results, with the respondent’s self-description, are shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Perceived Senate candidate ideology

Among registered voters

CandidateIdeology
Very conservativeSomewhat conservativeModerateSomewhat liberalVery liberal
Baldwin24183343
Hovde50311421
Self-description1425341611
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…

Senate vote by respondent’s ideological self-description

 

Table 22 shows conservative voters strongly prefer Hovde, while liberal voters strongly prefer Baldwin. A substantial majority of moderate voters prefer Baldwin. There are slightly more conservatives for Baldwin than there are liberals for Hovde.

Table 22: Vote for senate by political ideology

Among registered voters

Self-descriptionVote
Tammy BaldwinEric Hovde
Very conservative694
Somewhat conservative1189
Moderate6532
Somewhat liberal955
Very liberal964
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between [Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat,] and [Eric Hovde, the Republican,] would you vote for [Tammy Baldwin], or for [Eric Hovde or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Baldwin], or for [Hovde]?

Biden and Trump presidential job approval

 

Biden’s job approval in September stands at 41% with disapproval at 58%, little changed since June. Table 23 shows the recent trend in job approval.

Table 23: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll datesJob approval
Total approveTotal disapproveStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
8/28-9/5/24415816251147
7/24-8/1/24425718231245
6/12-20/24405716241047
4/3-10/2440571624849
1/24-31/24415818231048
10/26-11/2/23425717251244
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Respondents were also asked whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In September, 46% approved and 54% disapproved, a decrease in approval of 2 percentage points since July. For comparison, Trump’s rating in the last Marquette Law School Poll survey before the 2020 election was 47% approve and 52% disapprove. The recent trend is shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Trump retrospective job approval

Among registered voters

Poll datesJob approval
Total approveTotal disapproveStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
8/28-9/5/2446543116846
7/24-8/1/2448513216843
6/12-20/2447523016844
4/3-10/2447522621943
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president?

Direction of the state, economic conditions, and personal financial situation

 

While still somewhat negative, there has been some improvement in perceptions of how things are going in Wisconsin, with 46% saying the state is headed in the right direction as of September, up from 36% last November. Those saying the state is off on the wrong track stands at 53% in September, down from 62% almost a year ago. The full trend is shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Direction of the state

Among registered voters

Poll datesDirection
Right directionWrong track
8/28-9/5/244653
6/12-20/244555
4/3-10/244159
1/24-31/244257
10/26-11/2/233662
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 3% of Wisconsin voters, as good by 32%, as not so good by 35%, and as poor by 30%. Views of the economy have fluctuated modestly since November 2023, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll datesNational economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
8/28-9/5/243323530
7/24-8/1/245283333
6/12-20/244303432
4/3-10/245283828
1/24-31/246323428
10/26-11/2/233243637
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents’ assessments of their family’s financial situation are mixed: 44% say they are living comfortably, with 38% who say they are just getting by and 17% who say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 27. The percentage (assessing themselves) as living comfortably has declined by 4 percentage points since November 2023, while the percentage just getting by has increased by 2 percentage points. The percentage struggling is up 2 percentage points since November 2023.

Table 27: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll datesFinancial situation
Living comfortablyJust getting byStruggling
8/28-9/5/24443817
7/24-8/1/24444015
6/12-20/24463717
4/3-10/24454015
1/24-31/24493813
10/26-11/2/23483615
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Approval of governor’s job performance

 

Table 28 shows the approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers. Evers’s approval is 51% and disapproval is 44%. In July, Evers’s approval was also 51% and disapproval was 44%.

Table 28: Approval of Tony Evers’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll datesApproval
ApproveDisapproveDon’t know
8/28-9/5/2451445
7/24-8/1/2451445
6/12-20/2451446
4/3-10/2452443
1/24-31/2451445
10/26-11/2/2353462
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

Favorability to Sen. Ron Johnson

 

Favorability to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is shown in Table 29. Both favorable and unfavorable ratings of Johnson ticked up from July to September, but overall opinion has been stable over the past year.

Table 29: Ron Johnson favorability

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
8/28-9/5/24394912
7/24-8/1/24364717
6/12-20/24385011
4/3-10/24395111
1/24-31/2438529
10/26-11/2/23405010
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?


About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 2024, interviewing 822 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The sample contains 738 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 605 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration lists and 217 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 691 respondents, and with 131 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 35% Republican, 32% Democratic and 32% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.