New Marquette Law School Poll finds tight presidential race, Feingold with edge in Wisconsin

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds 44 percent of Wisconsin likely voters supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for president and 42 percent supporting Republican Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup. Twelve percent do not express a preference, saying they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote, or don’t know how they will vote.

Among all registered voters in the new poll, Clinton is supported by 43 percent and Trump by 38 percent, with 15 percent not expressing a preference.

In the most recent Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Aug. 25-28, Clinton was supported by 45 percent and Trump by 42 percent among likely voters, with 10 percent not having a preference. Among registered voters in that poll, Clinton held 42 percent to Trump’s 37 percent, with 19 percent lacking a preference.

In a four-way matchup including Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton is supported by 41 percent of likely voters in the new poll, with Trump at 38 percent, Johnson at 11 and Stein at 2. A total of 7 percent in that matchup do not give a preference. Among all registered voters, Clinton receives 39 percent, Trump 35 percent, Johnson 12 percent and Stein 3 percent, with 10 percent lacking a preference.

In the previous four-candidate matchup Aug. 25-28, Clinton received 41 percent among likely voters, with Trump at 38 percent, Johnson at 10 and Stein at 4, while another 7 percent did not pick a candidate. Among registered voters in the previous poll, Clinton received 37 percent, Trump 32, Johnson 11 and Stein 7, with 13 percent expressing no preference.

In a head-to-head matchup for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, among likely voters, 47 percent support Democrat Russ Feingold and 41 percent support Republican Ron Johnson, with 8 percent lacking a preference. Among all registered voters, Feingold receives 46 percent, Johnson 40 percent and 11 percent lack a preference.

In late August, Feingold had 48 percent and Johnson had 45 percent among likely voters.  Among all registered voters in that poll, Feingold had 46 percent support and Johnson 42 percent.

When Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson is included in the Senate contest, Feingold receives 44 percent among likely voters in the new poll, Johnson 39 percent and Anderson 7 percent, with 10 percent not expressing a preference. Among all registered voters, Feingold is supported by 44 percent, Johnson 37 percent and Anderson 8 percent, with 10 percent not holding a preference.

In late August, among likely voters, Feingold held 45 percent, Johnson 42 percent and Anderson 6 percent. Among all registered voters in the previous poll, Feingold received 42 percent, Johnson 38 percent and Anderson 8 percent.

The new poll was conducted Sept. 15-18, 2016. The full sample includes 802 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 677 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

Views of Senate candidates

Among all registered voters, 34 percent have a favorable view of Johnson, 36 percent hold an unfavorable view and 30 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they view him. Feingold is viewed favorably by 46 percent, unfavorably by 29 percent and 25 percent say they lack an opinion of him. Favorability to Anderson was not asked in this poll. In the Aug. 25‑28 poll, Anderson was viewed favorably by 4 percent, unfavorably by 4 percent and 92 percent lacked an opinion of him.

Thirty-six percent describe Johnson as someone who “cares about people like me,” while 43 percent say this did not describe him and 20 percent say they do not know. Fifty percent describe Feingold as caring about people like them while 32 percent do not and 18 percent say they don’t know.

Asked how effective Johnson, who was elected in 2010, is as a senator, 13 percent say very effective, 36 percent somewhat effective, 16 percent not very effective and 17 percent not at all effective. Sixteen percent say they don’t know how effective he is. Twenty-two percent say Feingold, who was in the Senate from 1993 to 2011, was very effective as a senator, 37 percent somewhat effective, 16 percent not very effective and 12 percent not at all effective, with 13 percent lacking an opinion.

 Among all registered voters, Johnson is supported by 80 percent of Republicans in a head-to-head matchup against Feingold, who receives 84 percent support from Democrats. Ten percent of Republicans cross over to vote for Feingold, while 6 percent of Democrats support Johnson. Independents divide 43 percent for Feingold and 36 percent for Johnson.

When Libertarian candidate Anderson is added to the choices among registered voters, Johnson holds 76 percent of Republicans, with 9 percent crossing over to Feingold and 6 percent to Anderson. Feingold wins 82 percent of Democrats, while 6 percent cross over to Johnson and 3 percent support Anderson. Independents give Feingold 40 percent, Johnson 32 percent and Anderson 15 percent.

Among likely voters in the head-to-head matchup, Johnson holds 80 percent of Republicans, with 9 percent supporting Feingold. Feingold wins 85 percent of Democrats, with 5 percent going to Johnson. Independents divide 47 percent for Feingold and 42 percent for Johnson.

In the three-way Senate matchup among likely voters, Republicans give Johnson 78 percent support, 7 percent choose Feingold and 5 percent vote for Anderson. Among Democrats, 83 percent back Feingold, 6 percent Johnson and 2 percent Anderson. Independents divide 40 percent for Feingold, 35 percent for Johnson and 15 percent for Anderson.

Discontent with the presidential nominees

Unhappiness with their presidential nominee is prevalent among registered voters in both parties. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, 68 percent say they would have liked their party to nominate someone other than Trump, while 29 percent say they prefer Trump as the nominee. Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, 48 percent would prefer Bernie Sanders as the nominee while 43 percent prefer Clinton.

Even with a high percentage of voters preferring a different nominee, sixty-one percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican hold a favorable view of Trump, with 28 percent unfavorable. Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, 78 percent have a favorable view of Clinton, with 15 percent unfavorable.

Among registered voters who say they are Republicans or independents who lean Republican, and who wish the party had a different nominee, Trump receives 65 percent of the vote, with 10 percent supporting Clinton and 22 percent lacking a preference in the head-to-head matchup. Among Republicans and Republican leaners who like Trump as the nominee, he receives 96 percent of the vote, with 1 percent for Clinton and 1 percent undecided.

For those Democrats and independents leaning Democratic who wish Sanders were the nominee, Clinton receives 72 percent of the vote, with 11 percent going to Trump and 9 percent lacking a preference. Among those who like to see Clinton as the nominee, she receives 94 percent, with Trump getting 2 percent and 3 percent lacking a preference.

When Libertarian candidate Johnson and Green party candidate Stein are added to the list of candidates, Trump receives 60 percent among those Republicans and leaners who would have preferred some other nominee, Clinton 9 percent, Johnson 17 percent and Stein 2 percent. Among those who like Trump as the nominee, he receives 90 percent to less than a half percent for Clinton, 8 percent for Johnson and 1 percent for Stein.

Among Democrats and those leaning Democratic who would have preferred Sanders as the nominee, Clinton holds 55 percent to Trump’s 9 percent, Johnson’s 15 percent and Stein’s 9 percent. Among those who like her nomination, Clinton wins 93 percent, Trump 2 percent, Johnson 2 percent and Stein zero percent.

Unified or divided government and ticket splitting

Fifty-three percent of registered voters say they prefer that Congress and the president be of the same party in order to get things done, while 39 percent prefer different parties because they can balance each other. Sixty-one percent of both Republicans and Democrats prefer one-party control, with 34 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of Democrats preferring divided government. Independents prefer divided government by a 48 percent to 43 percent margin over unified control.

Despite a majority preference for unified government, 51 percent of registered voters say they typically split their votes between parties, with 45 percent voting a straight ticket. Sixty-four percent of Democrats vote a straight ticket, as do 54 percent of Republicans, but just 21 percent of independents. Thirty-three percent of Democrats, 43 percent of Republicans and 75 percent of independents say they vote a split ticket.

Sixty-seven percent of straight-ticket voters prefer unified party control of Congress and the presidency, with 29 percent preferring divided control. Among ticket-splitters, 43 percent prefer unified control and 48 percent prefer divided government.

Vote fraud and voter disenfranchisement

Vote fraud and voter disenfranchisement have been important issues in policymaking and legal challenges over the past several years. Respondents were asked how many illegally cast votes by people not legally eligible they expected in November’s election and how many legal voters might be prevented from voting because of lack of proper identification. Respondents were offered a wide range of options for each item.

Answer option Illegally cast votes Legal voters prevented from voting
Less than 10 people 27% 15%
10-100 18% 15%
100-1,000 18% 23%
1,000-10,000 14% 17%
10,000-100,000 6% 12%
More than 100,000 3% 5%
Don’t know 12% 11%

Comparing each individual’s responses to the two items: 18 percent think more illegal votes are cast than legal votes are prevented, 26 percent think the two are equal and 37 percent think more legal votes are prevented than illegal votes cast. Nineteen percent don’t know on either or both questions.

Among Republicans, 27 percent think there are more illegal votes than legal voters prevented from voting, 30 percent think the two are equal and 24 percent think more legal voters are prevented from voting. Among Democrats, 7 percent think there are more illegal votes, 23 percent think the two are equal and 55 percent say there are more legal voters who are prevented from voting. Twenty-one percent of independents think there are more illegal votes, 26 percent think they are equal and 36 percent think more legal voters are denied their ability to vote.

International issues

The approach the United States should take toward the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) has emerged as an issue in the presidential campaign. Thirty percent of registered voters favor limiting military action against ISIS to air strikes alone, 42 percent support committing combat troops on the ground as well, while 15 percent oppose any military action and 11 percent don’t have an opinion.

Among Trump voters, 61 percent favor committing both air and ground forces, 20 percent prefer air only and 9 percent oppose any military action. Among Clinton supporters, 27 percent favor both air and ground commitments, 40 percent favor air only and 18 percent oppose any military action.

Among those who have served, or who have a close family member who has served, in the armed forces since 2001, 46 percent support both air and ground action, 26 percent support air action only and 14 percent oppose any military action. Among those who have not served nor have any family who has served in the armed forces, 39 percent favor air and ground action, 33 percent support air action only and 15 percent oppose any military action.

While 72 percent support some form of military action against ISIS, a majority, 57 percent, say the war in Iraq was not worth the cost, while 37 percent say it was worth fighting. Views of those who served or who had family who served differ little from those who did not, with 55 percent of those who served (or who had family who served) saying the Iraq war was not worth the cost and 40 percent saying it was worth it, while among those who did not serve 58 percent say it was not worth it and 35 percent saying it was.

Among Trump voters, 50 percent say the Iraq war was worth fighting, while 45 percent say it was not. Among Clinton voters, 24 percent say it was worth fighting and 70 percent say it was not.

Views of military action against ISIS also reflect views of the Iraq war. Among those saying the Iraq war was worth fighting, 64 percent support committing both air and ground forces against ISIS, 23 percent support an air campaign only and 4 percent oppose any military action. Among those who think the Iraq war was not worth fighting, 28 percent support air and ground action, 37 percent support air action only and 23 percent oppose any military action.

Asked which is the best way to reduce international threats to the United States, 58 percent say diplomatic negotiations are best, while 24 percent say the use of military force is best, with 12 percent saying both.

Among Trump supporters, 43 percent say military force is the best way to reduce international threats, 36 percent choose diplomatic negotiations and 16 percent say both. Among Clinton voters, 79 percent favor diplomatic negotiations, 8 percent say use of force is best and 7 percent say both.

Views of presidential candidates

Trump is viewed favorably by 31 percent and unfavorably by 61 percent of registered voters. Seven percent say they either haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about him. In late August, Trump’s rating was 28 percent favorable and 63 percent unfavorable.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 50 percent of registered voters. Six percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about her. In late August, 35 percent rated Clinton favorably and 58 percent unfavorably.

Johnson, the Libertarian presidential candidate, is seen favorably by 17 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 21 percent, with 62 percent lacking an opinion of him. Three weeks ago, 14 percent had a favorable view of Johnson, 14 percent an unfavorable view and 72 percent lacked an opinion.

Stein, the Green Party candidate, is viewed favorably by 8 percent and unfavorably by 12, with 79 percent saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about her. This is the first time the Marquette Law School Poll has measured feeling toward Stein.

Comparison of candidate traits

Asked if “honest” describes Clinton, 31 percent of registered voters say it does while 63 percent say it does not. For Trump, 34 percent say “honest” describes him while 63 percent say it does not. In late August, 26 percent described Clinton as honest and 68 percent did not. Thirty-one percent described Trump as honest in that poll, while 64 percent did not.

Forty-six percent describe Clinton as someone who “cares about people like me” and 51 percent do not. Thirty-four percent say Trump cares about people like them while 63 percent do not see him this way. In late August, 40 percent described Clinton as caring while 54 percent did not. In that poll, 31 percent said Trump cares while 65 percent did not see him that way.

Asked if a candidate has the qualifications to be president, 60 percent say Clinton does, while 38 percent say she does not. Thirty-five percent say Trump has the qualifications to be president, while 62 percent say he does not. In late August, 54 percent described Clinton as qualified and 44 percent said she was not, while 32 percent described Trump as qualified and 65 percent said he was not.

Respondents were asked how comfortable they were with the idea of each candidate as president. Forty-six percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton as president, with 54 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 42 percent saying they are “very uncomfortable.” For Trump, 33 percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with him as president, while 65 percent say they are very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 51 percent saying “very uncomfortable.”

In late August, 41 percent were comfortable with Clinton and 57 percent were uncomfortable, with 45 percent very uncomfortable. For Trump, 32 percent were comfortable and 67 percent uncomfortable, with 52 percent very uncomfortable.

Minimum wage increase

Asked if they favor or oppose increasing the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 per hour, 51 percent favor the increase while 47 percent oppose it.

Seventy-five percent of Republicans oppose this increase in the minimum wage while 23 percent support the hike. Seventy-six percent of Democrats favor the increase while 23 percent oppose it. Among independents, 53 percent support and 44 percent oppose the increase.

Opinions of major political leaders

Approval of how Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is handling his job stands at 43 percent, with disapproval at 52 percent. In late August, approval was 43 percent and disapproval was 49 percent.

President Obama’s job approval stands at 54 percent, with 41 percent disapproval. In early August, 49 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved.

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin receives a 38 percent favorable rating and a 32 percent unfavorable rating, with 30 percent saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t have an opinion. When last measured in June of this year, 37 percent were favorable, 33 percent unfavorable and 31 percent lacked an opinion.

U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan receives a 47 percent favorable rating and a 32 percent unfavorable rating, with 21 percent unable to provide a rating. When last measured Aug. 4-7, 2016, his favorable rating was 54 percent, unfavorable 33, and 18 percent were unable to rate him.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, September 15-18, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the full sample. For likely voters, the unweighted sample size is 677 and weighted sample size is 642, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the full registered-voter sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 47 percent Democratic and 7 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 38 statewide Marquette polls, with 32,949 respondents, is 42 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 31 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 34 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 38 percent independent.

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton edge over Trump narrowing to pre-convention levels among Wisconsin voters

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with support from 42 percent of Wisconsin registered voters and Republican candidate Donald Trump with support from 37 percent in a head-to-head presidential matchup. Nineteen percent do not express a preference, saying they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote, or don’t know how they will vote.

In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Aug. 4-7, Clinton was supported by 46 percent of registered voters and Trump by 36 percent, with 16 percent not having a preference. In the July Marquette poll, Clinton received 43 percent support and Trump 37 percent, while 18 percent did not give a preference.

Among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in November, Clinton is supported by 45 percent and Trump by 42 percent in the new poll, with 10 percent saying they will support neither candidate. In the early August poll, 52 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while Trump was backed by 37 percent and 10 percent said they had no preference. In July, likely voters gave Clinton 45 percent support and Trump 41 percent, while 14 percent said they lacked a preference.

“After a strong bump in Clinton’s favor following the national party conventions, the electorate in Wisconsin has returned to about where the vote stood in July, prior to the conventions,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll and Professor of Law and Public Policy.

In a four-way matchup including Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton is supported by 37 percent of registered voters, with Trump at 32 percent, Johnson at 11 and Stein at 7. A total of 13 percent in that matchup do not give a preference. In the four-candidate matchup in early August, Clinton received 42 percent, with Trump at 33 percent, Johnson at 10 and Stein at 4, while another 11 percent did not pick a candidate. In July’s four-candidate question among registered voters, Clinton received 40 percent, Trump 33, Johnson 10 and Stein 4.

Among likely voters, Clinton receives 41 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 10 and Stein 4 with 7 percent lacking a preference. In early August, Clinton received 47 percent of likely voters, with Trump at 34 percent, Johnson at 9 and Stein at 3, while 6 percent lacked a preference. In July, among likely voters, Clinton received 43 percent, Trump 37, Johnson 8 and Stein 2..

In a head-to-head matchup for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race among registered voters, Russ Feingold receives 46 percent to Ron Johnson’s 42 percent, with 9 percent lacking a preference. In early August, Feingold had 49 percent and Johnson had 43 percent. In July, Feingold had 48 percent support and Johnson 41 percent.

Among likely voters in November’s election, Feingold has the support of 48 percent while Johnson is supported by 45 percent. In early August, among likely voters Feingold had 53 percent while Johnson held 42 percent. In July, Feingold was supported by 49 percent of likely voters and Johnson by 44 percent.

When Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson is included in the Senate contest, among registered voters, Feingold receives 42 percent, Johnson 38 percent and Anderson 8 percent, with 12 percent not expressing a preference. In early August, Feingold held 47 percent, Johnson 38 percent and Anderson 7 percent. In July, Feingold received 45 percent, Johnson 38 percent and Anderson 8 percent.

Among likely voters in the new poll, Feingold is supported by 45 percent, Johnson by 42 percent and Anderson by 6 percent, with 7 percent not giving a preference. Three weeks ago, Feingold received 50 percent, Johnson 39 percent and Anderson 7 percent among likely voters. In July, Feingold received 46 percent, Johnson 40 percent and Anderson 7 percent.

Likely turnout has fluctuated over the past several polls. In the new poll, 84 percent of Republicans say they are certain to vote, compared to 81 percent of Democrats and 74 percent of independents. In early August, Democrats enjoyed higher likely turnout at 82 percent, compared to 79 percent among Republicans and 69 percent among independents. In July, 86 percent of Republicans and 85 percent of Democrats were certain they would vote, as were 71 percent of independents.

The poll was conducted Aug. 25-28, 2016. The full sample includes 803 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 650 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points.

Favorable and unfavorable views of candidates

Trump is viewed favorably by 28 percent and unfavorably by 63 percent of registered voters. Eight percent say they either haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about him. In early August, Trump’s rating was 27 percent favorable and 65 percent unfavorable.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 35 percent and unfavorably by 58 percent of registered voters. Seven percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about her. In early August, 43 percent rated Clinton favorably and 53 percent unfavorably.

Johnson, the Libertarian presidential candidate, is seen favorably by 14 percent and unfavorably by 14 percent, with 72 percent lacking an opinion of him. Three weeks ago, 13 percent had a favorable view of Johnson, 15 percent an unfavorable view and 72 percent lacked an opinion.

In the U.S. Senate race, Feingold is seen favorably by 40 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 35 percent, with 25 percent lacking an opinion. Johnson has a 33 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable rating, with 32 percent without an opinion. Libertarian candidate Anderson is viewed favorably by 4 percent and unfavorably by 4 percent, with 92 percent lacking an opinion of him. In early August, Feingold had a 44 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable rating, while Johnson’s was 34 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable. In the previous poll, Anderson was at 4 percent favorable and 5 percent unfavorable, with 92 percent having no opinion of him.

Comparison of candidate traits

Among registered voters, 46 percent describe Feingold as someone who “cares about people like me,” while 36 percent say this does not describe him and 17 percent say they don’t know. Thirty-eight percent describe Johnson as someone who cares, with 38 percent saying this does not describe him and 23 percent saying they don’t know. This question about the Senate candidates has not been asked in previous polls.

Asked if “honest” describes Clinton, 26 percent of registered voters say it does while 68 percent say it does not. For Trump, 31 percent of respondents say “honest” describes him while 64 percent say it does not. In early August, 32 percent described Clinton as honest and 64 percent did not. Thirty-three percent described Trump as honest in that poll, while 64 percent did not. In July, 28 percent described Clinton as honest and 68 percent did not, while 33 percent described Trump as honest and 62 percent said this did not describe him.

Forty percent describe Clinton as someone who “cares about people like me” and 54 percent do not. Thirty-one percent say Trump cares about people like them while 65 percent do not see him this way. In early August, 47 percent described Clinton as caring while 51 percent did not. In that poll, 31 percent said Trump cares while 67 percent did not see him that way. This question was not asked in July.

Asked if a candidate has the qualifications to be president, 54 percent say Clinton does, while 44 percent say she does not. Thirty-two percent say Trump has the qualifications to be president while 65 percent say he does not. In early August, 58 percent described Clinton as qualified and 41 percent said she was not, while 29 percent described Trump as qualified and 68 percent said he was not. In July, 56 percent described Clinton as qualified while 42 percent did not, and 32 percent said Trump had the qualifications to be president and 67 percent said that he did not.

Respondents were asked how comfortable they were with the idea of each candidate as president. Forty-one percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton as president, with 57 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 45 percent saying they are “very uncomfortable.” For Trump, 32 percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with him as president while 67 percent say they are very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 52 percent saying “very uncomfortable.”

In early August, 43 percent were comfortable with Clinton and 55 percent were uncomfortable, with 41 percent very uncomfortable. For Trump, 31 percent were comfortable and 68 percent uncomfortable, with 53 percent very uncomfortable. In July, 40 percent were very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton, with 60 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 43 percent “very uncomfortable.” Thirty percent were very or somewhat comfortable with Trump while 68 percent were very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 53 percent very uncomfortable.

Policy toward undocumented immigrants

Sixty-two percent of registered voters say that undocumented immigrants currently working in the United States should be allowed to stay and eventually apply for citizenship. Nineteen percent say they should be allowed to stay but only as temporary guest workers and not allowed to apply for citizenship, and 15 percent say they should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.

In the fall of 2012, combining the results of four polls, 52 percent favored a citizenship path, 20 percent a guest worker status and 21 percent favored requiring undocumented immigrants to leave the country. Combining the results of five polls taken in 2016, 60 percent favor a citizenship option, 20 percent a guest worker option and 17 percent favor requiring undocumented immigrants to leave.

In the current poll, among Republicans, 43 percent favor a citizenship option, 26 percent favor a guest worker policy and 28 percent favor requiring undocumented workers to leave the U.S. Among Democrats, 81 percent favor a citizenship path, 13 percent prefer a guest worker option and 4 percent support requiring the undocumented to leave. Independents favor eventual citizenship by 64 percent, with 17 percent supporting a guest worker program and 15 percent in favor of required exit from the country.

Among those saying they will vote for Trump, 39 percent favor a path to citizenship, 29 percent prefer a guest worker status and 31 percent favor requiring undocumented workers to leave the U.S. Among Clinton voters, 82 percent favor a path to citizenship, 14 percent support a guest status and 3 percent say undocumented immigrants should leave the country.

Among registered voters, 68 percent say Trump favors requiring undocumented immigrants to leave the U.S., 14 percent say he favors a guest worker option and 9 percent say he supports a path to citizenship, with 8 percent saying they don’t know his position. In contrast, 70 percent say Clinton favors a path to citizenship, 15 percent say she favors a guest worker program and 2 percent say she favors requiring undocumented immigrants to leave, while 13 percent say they do not know her position on this issue.

Asked if Trump has changed his position on undocumented immigrants recently, 47 percent say he has changed, 39 percent say he has held his position all along and 13 percent don’t know. For Clinton, 19 percent say she has changed her position while 54 percent say she has held the same position and 26 percent don’t know if she has changed.

Among those who support Trump in the head-to-head matchup, 49 percent say he has changed his position while 37 percent say he has not changed. Among those Trump supporters who think he has not changed, 72 percent say he would require undocumented immigrants to leave the U.S., 15 percent say he would support a guest worker policy and 12 percent think he favors a path to citizenship. Among those Trump supporters who think he has recently changed positions, 36 percent say he now favors requiring the undocumented to leave, while 36 percent say he favors a guest worker option and 21 percent say he now supports a path to citizenship.

Personal situation and vote

Fifty-three percent of registered voters say they are living comfortably, 33 percent say they are just getting by and 13 percent say they are struggling. Among those living comfortably, Trump receives 43 percent to Clinton’s 38 percent in the head-to-head matchup. Among those just getting by or struggling, Trump is supported by 31 percent to Clinton’s 47 percent. When limited to only non-Hispanic white voters, Trump receives 45 percent to Clinton’s 35 percent among those living comfortably while those just getting by or struggling support Clinton 39 percent to Trump’s 36 percent.

Among registered voters with incomes over $75,000, Trump receives 49 percent to Clinton’s 35 percent. Among those with incomes between $40,000 and $75,000, Trump is supported by 41 percent and Clinton by 40 percent. Among those earning less than $40,000, Trump receives 26 percent support to Clinton’s 54 percent. A similar pattern holds among non-Hispanic white voters, with Trump getting 50 percent to Clinton’s 35 percent among those earning over $75,000. Trump is supported by 45 percent to Clinton’s 35 percent of non-Hispanic white voters earning between $40,000 and $75,000. Among non-Hispanic white voters earning less than $40,000, Trump receives 31 percent support to Clinton’s 43 percent.

Nearly half (49 percent) of registered voters think the next generation will have a worse life than today, while 20 percent think it will be better and 25 percent say the next generation will live in about the same circumstances as today. Those who see a worse future support Trump 49 percent to 30 percent for Clinton. Those who think the future will be better support Clinton 62 percent to 24 percent for Trump, and those who think the future will be about the same support Clinton 53 percent and Trump 24 percent.

Civil unrest in Milwaukee

More than half of registered voters, 51 percent, say they have read or heard “a lot” about the recent civil unrest in Milwaukee after a police officer shot and killed an armed man. Twenty-nine percent say they have read or heard “some” and 15 percent “only a little,” while 4 percent have heard nothing at all.

Asked about their feelings about the police in their community, 86 percent say the police make them feel mostly safe while 12 percent said they feel mostly anxious. Among non-Hispanic white respondents, 90 percent say police make them feel mostly safe and 9 percent say mostly anxious. Among black and Hispanic respondents, 57 percent say police make them feel mostly safe and 37 percent say mostly anxious.

Statewide, 37 percent said the unrest was mostly due to anger at decades of disadvantage for black communities while 48 percent said it was mostly due to lack of respect for law and order.

The state of the state

Approval of how Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is handling his job stands at 43 percent, with disapproval at 49 percent. In early August, approval was 38 percent and disapproval was 59 percent. Walker’s approval matches his recent high mark of 43 percent in March, while this is the first time disapproval has been under 50 percent since October 2014.

President Obama’s job approval stands at 49 percent, with 45 percent disapproval. In early August, 53 percent approved and 41 percent disapproved.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 803 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Aug. 25‑28, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points for the full sample. For likely voters, the unweighted sample size is 650 and weighted sample size is 615, with a margin of error of +/-5.0 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the full registered-voter sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 46 percent Democratic and 7 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 36 statewide Marquette polls, with 32,146 respondents, is 42 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 27 percent Republican, 30 percent Democratic and 38 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 38 percent independent.

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton widening lead over Trump in Wisconsin

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with support from 46 percent of Wisconsin registered voters and Republican candidate Donald Trump with support from 36 percent in a head-to-head presidential matchup. Sixteen percent say they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote, or don’t know how they will vote.

In the most recent Marquette Law School Poll, in July, Clinton had 43 percent support and Trump 37 percent, with 18 percent saying they would vote for neither, would not vote or didn’t know.

Among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in November, Clinton is supported by 52 percent and Trump by 37 percent in the new poll, with 10 percent saying they will support neither candidate. In July, likely voters gave Clinton 45 percent support, Trump 41 percent and 14 percent said they would vote for neither.

In a four-way matchup including Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton is supported by 42 percent of registered voters, with Trump at 33 percent, Johnson at 10 and Stein at 4. A total of 11 percent in that matchup say they will vote for none of the candidates, won’t vote or don’t know how they will vote. Among likely voters, Clinton receives 47 percent, Trump 34, Johnson 9 and Stein 3. In July’s four-candidate question among registered voters, Clinton received 40 percent, Trump 33, Johnson 10 and Stein 4. Among likely voters in that poll, Clinton received 43 percent, Trump 37, Johnson 8 and Stein 2 percent.

In a head-to-head matchup for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, among registered voters, Democratic candidate Russ Feingold is supported by 49 percent while Republican incumbent Ron Johnson receives 43 percent. In July, Feingold had 48 percent support and Johnson 41 percent.

Among likely voters in November’s election, Feingold has the support of 53 percent while Johnson is supported by 42 percent. Among likely voters in July, Feingold was supported by 49 percent and Johnson by 44 percent.

When Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson is included in the Senate contest, among registered voters, Feingold receives 47 percent, Johnson 38 percent and Anderson 7 percent. Among likely voters, it is Feingold 50 percent, Johnson 39 percent and Anderson 7 percent.

For registered voters in the July poll, Feingold received 45 percent, Johnson 38 percent and Anderson 8 percent. Among likely voters, Feingold received 46 percent, Johnson 40 percent and Anderson 7 percent.

Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, 78 percent say they are absolutely certain they will vote in November compared to 80 percent in the July poll. Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, certainty of voting rose from 78 percent in July to 81 percent in August.

The poll was conducted August 4-7, 2016. The full sample includes 805 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 683 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points.

Favorable and unfavorable views of candidates

Trump is viewed favorably by 27 percent and unfavorably by 65 percent of registered voters. Seven percent say they either haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about him. In July, Trump’s rating was 29 percent favorable and 63 percent unfavorable.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 53 percent of registered voters. Four percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about her. In July, 36 percent rated Clinton favorably and 58 percent unfavorably.

Johnson, the Libertarian presidential candidate, is seen favorably by 13 percent and unfavorably by 15 percent, with 72 percent lacking an opinion of him. In July, 11 percent had a favorable view of Johnson, 10 percent an unfavorable view and 79 percent lacked an opinion.

In the U.S. Senate race, Feingold is seen favorably by 44 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 36 percent, with 20 percent lacking an opinion. Johnson has a 34 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable rating, with 33 percent without an opinion. Libertarian candidate Anderson is viewed favorably by 4 percent and unfavorably by 5 percent, with 92 percent lacking an opinion of him. In July, Feingold had a 40 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable rating while Johnson’s was 34 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable. In July Anderson was 2 percent favorable, 4 percent unfavorable and 94 percent had no opinion of him.

Comparison of candidate traits

Asked if “honest” describes Clinton, in the August poll, 32 percent of registered voters say it does, while 64 percent say it does not. For Trump, 33 percent of August respondents say “honest” describes him, while 64 percent say it does not. In July, 28 percent described Clinton as honest and 68 percent did not, while 33 percent described Trump as honest and 62 percent said this did not describe him.

Forty-seven percent describe Clinton as someone who “cares about people like me” and 51 percent do not. Thirty-one percent say Trump cares about people like them while 67 percent do not see him this way. In the June Marquette Law School Poll, when this question was most recently asked, 42 percent described Clinton as caring and 55 percent did not, compared to 27 percent who described Trump as caring while 70 percent did not.

Asked if a candidate has the qualifications to be president, 58 percent say Clinton does, while 41 percent say she does not. Twenty-nine percent say Trump has the qualifications to be president, while 68 percent say he does not. In July, 56 percent described Clinton as qualified while 42 percent did not and 32 percent said Trump had the qualifications to be president and 67 percent said that he did not.

Respondents were asked how comfortable they were with the idea of each candidate as president. In August, 43 percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton as president, with 55 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 41 percent saying they are “very uncomfortable.” For Trump, 31 percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with him as president while 68 percent say they are very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 53 percent saying “very uncomfortable.” In July, 40 percent were very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton, with 60 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 43 percent “very uncomfortable.” Thirty percent were very or somewhat comfortable with Trump while 68 percent were very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 53 percent very uncomfortable.

Party unity and division

In the head-to-head matchup of Clinton and Trump, 79 percent of Republicans support Trump, 6 percent vote for Clinton and 14 percent say they would vote for neither, would not vote or don’t know. Among Democrats, 90 percent support Clinton and 2 percent Trump, with 6 percent saying they would vote for neither, would not vote or don’t know. Independents split 36 percent for Clinton, 34 percent for Trump and 29 percent saying they would vote for neither, they wouldn’t vote or they don’t know.

In July, Trump received 80 percent support from Republicans, Clinton was backed by 93 percent of Democrats, and independents divided 35 percent for Clinton and 36 percent for Trump, with 27 percent saying they would vote for neither, they wouldn’t vote or they don’t know.

When third-party candidates are included in the vote question, 75 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Trump, 6 percent for Clinton, 8 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein, with 10 percent saying they would vote for none of these candidates, would not vote or don’t know. Among Democrats, 85 percent back Clinton, 2 percent Trump, 5 percent Johnson, and 4 percent Stein, while 4 percent support none, wouldn’t vote or don’t know.

With the third-party candidates specifically mentioned in the question, independents divide 28 percent for Clinton, 28 percent for Trump, 19 percent for Johnson and 6 percent for Stein, with 19 percent saying they would vote for none of these candidates, would not vote or don’t know.

Republicans and independents who lean Republican see their party as divided, with 47 percent saying it is divided now and will still be divided in November, 42 percent saying it is divided now but will unite before the election and 5 percent saying the party is united now. Those numbers have barely moved from July, prior to the convention, when 46 percent said the GOP would remain divided, 45 percent said it was divided but would unite and 5 percent said it was already united.

Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, 16 percent say the party is divided and will remain so, 35 percent say it is divided but will unite before the election and 47 percent say the party is united now. In July, 19 percent thought the party would remain divided, 40 percent said it was divided but would unite and 39 percent said the party was already united.

Party unity and the Senate vote

Among Republicans, 87 percent say they will vote for Johnson, 6 percent for Feingold and 7 percent don’t support either candidate. When Libertarian candidate Anderson is included in the question, 81 percent of Republicans support Johnson, 6 percent Feingold, 5 percent Anderson and 9 percent do not support any of the three.

Among Democrats, 92 percent support Feingold, 5 percent Johnson and 4 percent lack a preference. When Anderson is included in the list of candidates, 88 percent of Democrats choose Feingold, 4 percent Johnson and 4 percent Anderson, with 4 percent choosing none of the three.

Independents divide 42 percent for Feingold and 44 percent for Johnson, with 14 percent supporting neither. When Anderson is added, the division is 41 percent for Feingold, 36 percent for Johnson, 12 percent for Anderson and 12 percent choosing none of the three.

The state of the state

In August, 45 percent of registered voters say the state in headed in the right direction, while 51 percent say it is off on the wrong track. When last asked in June, 46 percent said right direction and 50 percent said wrong track.

Thirty percent of August respondents say the state’s budget is in better shape than a few years ago while 36 percent say it is in worse shape now, with 28 percent saying it is about the same. In June, 31 percent said the budget was better, 37 percent said worse and 25 percent said it was the same.

How to fund the transportation budget has become a topic of discussion among lawmakers, including the governor, in recent weeks. Respondents in the August poll were asked how the state should deal with a projected $939 million shortfall in next year’s transportation budget. Forty-three percent say they would increase gas taxes or registration fees to maintain current road projects, 33 percent say they would cut most or all of the spending on road projects to avoid any tax increase and 12 percent say they would support borrowing most or all of the $939 million needed to maintain current taxes and projects. Fifty-five percent of Republicans said they would cut projects, while 25 percent would raise taxes and 8 percent would borrow, Among Democrats, 59 percent would raise revenue, 18 percent would cut projects and 12 would borrow. Forty-five percent of independents support tax increases, 27 percent favor project cuts and 15 percent would rather borrow.

Approval of how Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is handling his job stands at 38 percent, with disapproval at 59 percent. In July, approval was 38 percent and disapproval was 58 percent.

In this statewide poll, House Speaker Paul Ryan is viewed favorably by 54 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 31 percent. Fourteen percent do not have an opinion of him. In July, 48 percent had a favorable opinion, 33 percent unfavorable and 18 percent were unable to say. Among Republicans statewide, Ryan’s approval is 80 percent favorable, 12 percent unfavorable and 7 percent have no opinion.

President Obama’s job approval stands at 53 percent, with 41 percent disapproval. In July, 51 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 805 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, August 4‑7, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points for the full sample. For likely voters, the unweighted sample size is 683 and weighted sample size is 619, with a margin of error of +/-5.0 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the full registered-voter sample, including those who lean to a party, is 44 percent Republican, 47 percent Democratic and 8 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 36 statewide Marquette polls, with 31,341 respondents, is 42 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic and 32 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 39 percent independent.