New Marquette Law School Poll finds Trump approval rating at 41 percent in Wisconsin; concerns about health care changes

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds that President Donald Trump receives a 41 percent approval rating among registered voters in Wisconsin, while 47 percent disapprove and 11 percent say they don’t know whether they approve or not.

Among Republicans, 86 percent approve, 7 percent disapprove and 6 percent lack an opinion. Among Democrats, 5 percent approve, 89 percent disapprove and 6 percent are without an opinion. Thirty-eight percent of independents approve of how Trump is handling his job while 44 percent disapprove and 16 percent have not formed an opinion.

Trump receives his strongest support in the Milwaukee media market, excluding the city of Milwaukee, with 48 percent approval and 42 percent disapproval, followed by the Green Bay media market where 46 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. In the media markets covering the north and western parts of the state, approval is at 45 percent and disapproval at 43 percent. Respondents in the Madison media market report 32 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval. The city of Milwaukee shows the lowest approval, 19 percent, with 63 percent disapproval.

While job approval can only be measured once an official is in office, favorability towards candidates can be measured at any time by asking “do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of  …” This question allows comparison before and after an election. Trump’s favorability rating has improved since his election as president. In the new poll, conducted from March 13 to 16, 42 percent view him favorably and 48 percent unfavorably. That compares to 33 percent favorable and 62 percent unfavorable ratings in the Marquette Law School Poll conducted Oct. 26-31, 2016. Favorability increased sharply among Republicans, 67 percent of whom had a favorable impression of Trump in October compared to 90 percent in the current poll. In October, 27 percent of Republicans had an unfavorable view, with 7 percent doing so now. Among independents, 33 percent had a favorable view and 60 percent an unfavorable one in October, compared to 39 percent with a favorable view and 45 percent with an unfavorable view in the March survey. Democratic opinion has not shifted, with 4 percent favorable and 94 percent unfavorable in October and 5 percent favorable and 91 percent unfavorable now.

Thirty-three percent of respondents say Trump shows good judgment while 62 percent say he does not. In October, 26 percent said he showed good judgment with 71 percent saying he didn’t. Republicans shifted from 54 percent saying that Trump showed good judgment in October to 70 percent in the current poll. In October, 44 percent of Republicans said he did not show good judgment while 26 percent of Republicans say that now. Shifts among independents are more modest, from 26 percent saying Trump showed good judgment in October to 29 percent now. In October, 71 percent said he did not show good judgment, compared to 65 percent in March. Only four percent of Democrats in October said he showed good judgment and five percent say so now, with 95 percent in October and 92 percent in March saying Trump lacks good judgment.

Forty percent of registered voters say the phrase “cares about people like me” describes Trump while 55 percent say it does not describe him. In the October poll, 35 percent said that this describes Trump, with 62 percent saying it did not describe him. As with other opinions of Trump, Republicans show considerable increases, from 71 percent saying Trump cares in October to 81 percent in March, and declines, from 28 percent to 14 percent of Republicans saying he does not care. Independents shifted less, from 35 percent (in October) to 39 percent (now) saying Trump cares, and from 61 percent to 56 percent saying he doesn’t care. Democrats barely changed, with 6 percent saying Trump cares in October and 5 percent saying so in March and with 93 percent saying he did not care in October and 91 percent saying so now.

Russian effort to influence 2016 election

In the poll, taken before public congressional hearings on March 20, voters split evenly on whether they were concerned that the Russian government may have attempted to influence the 2016 election. Thirty percent say they are very concerned about this, 20 percent are somewhat concerned, 18 percent are not too concerned and 30 percent are not at all concerned. Partisan divisions are sharp on this question, with 83 percent of Republicans not at all or not too concerned while 85 percent of Democrats are very or somewhat concerned. Forty-seven percent of independents are very or somewhat concerned while 50 percent of independents are not at all or not too concerned about the issue.

Health care law

Asked what they would like to see Congress do about the 2010 health care reform law, 6 percent favor keeping the law as it is, 54 percent would keep and improve it, 28 percent favor repealing and replacing the law and 8 percent would repeal and not replace the law.

Sixty-one percent of Republicans favor repeal and replace, with 13 percent favoring repeal and not replace. Twenty-four percent of Republicans would keep the law but improve it and less than a half-percent would keep the law as it is. Sixty percent of independents would keep the law and improve it, with 4 percent saying they would keep it as it is. Twenty-three percent of independents would repeal and replace the law, and 9 percent would repeal it and not replace it. Seventy-five percent of Democrats would keep and improve the law, and 15 percent would keep it as it is, while 4 percent would repeal and replace it and 3 percent would simply repeal it.

Opinion of the 2010 health reform law varies depending on whether it is described as “the Affordable Care Act” or as “Obamacare.” A random half of the sample was asked “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010, often called the Affordable Care Act. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” while the other random half of the sample was asked, “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010, often called Obamacare. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?”

When it was described as “the Affordable Care Act,” 51 percent said they have a favorable view of the law while 40 percent have an unfavorable view and 9 percent said they don’t know. When the law was described as “Obamacare,” 40 percent reported a favorable view, with 53 percent unfavorable and 6 percent lacking an opinion.

Sex of the respondent affects both overall opinion of the health law and the effect of what it is called. Among men overall, 35 percent have a favorable and 59 percent an unfavorable view of the law. Among men, when the law was described as the “Affordable Care Act,” 40 percent are favorable to it and 50 percent are unfavorable, but when described as “Obamacare,” 31 percent are favorable and 66 percent are unfavorable. In contrast, among women overall, 55 percent have a favorable view of the law, with 35 percent unfavorable. When it is described as the “Affordable Care Act,” women are 58 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable. When it is labeled “Obamacare,” women are 51 percent favorable and 38 percent unfavorable.

Education also plays a role in the effect of how the law is labeled. Among those without a college degree, 52 percent are favorable and 36 percent unfavorable when the law is called the “Affordable Care Act,” a split that reverses when it is called “Obamacare” to 36 percent favorable and 56 percent unfavorable. Among those with a college degree, 47 percent are favorable and 49 percent unfavorable toward the “Affordable Care Act,” and 50 percent are favorable to 45 percent unfavorable toward “Obamacare”.

While details of a replacement for the 2010 health care reform law are currently being debated, 49 percent of respondents think a replacement law will decrease the number of people who have health insurance, 25 percent think the number of insured will not change and 18 percent think a replacement law will increase the number of insured people.

Forty-five percent think a health care replacement bill will increase the cost of health insurance, 21 percent think the cost will not change and 28 percent think costs will decrease under a replacement bill.

Immigration policy

Sixty-six percent of respondents say undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the United States should be allowed to stay and eventually apply for citizenship. Seventeen percent say these immigrants should be able to stay as guest workers but not apply for citizenship and 14 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S. In October, 62 percent supported eventual citizenship, 19 percent favored a guest worker status and 16 percent thought undocumented immigrants should be required to leave the county.

Asked about the administration’s steps to accelerate the deportation of people in the country illegally, including those who may not have committed a serious crime, 43 percent support deportations while 50 percent do not. Support for deportations is 85 percent among those who think undocumented immigrants should be required to leave the country, 60 percent among those favoring a guest worker program and 30 percent among those who think there should be a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Asked about building a wall along the entire border with Mexico, 37 percent support constructing a wall while 59 percent oppose doing so. Among those who approve of the job Trump is doing as president, 75 percent support the wall while 20 percent oppose it. Among those disapproving of Trump’s handling of his job, 8 percent support the wall and 91 percent oppose it. Opinion follows party lines as well, with 74 percent of Republicans, 7 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of independents favoring the wall, while 23 percent of Republicans, 90 percent of Democrats and 60 percent of independents oppose it.

Supreme Court appointments

To assess how people view appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court, respondents were asked if they would be willing for their senator to vote for a nominee “who was highly qualified but with whom you disagree on a number of policies” or “would you want your senator to vote against any nominee you disagree with no matter how well-qualified.” Sixty-two percent of respondents say they would be willing for the senator to vote for a highly qualified candidate with whom they disagreed while 27 percent said they would want the senator to vote against such a candidate.

In February 2016, following the death of Justice Antonin Scalia but before the nomination of Judge Merrick Garland to succeed him, 57 percent of registered voters said they would want their senator to support a highly qualified nominee despite their disagreements and 30 percent would want the senator to vote against the candidate. While the overall positions on the question have changed only slightly, the partisan structure of opinion has changed. In February 2016, 34 percent of Republicans said their senator should vote for a well-qualified nominee while 50 percent said the senator should vote against. In March 2017, 63 percent of Republicans say they would be willing for their senator to vote for the well-qualified candidate they disagree with, and 32 percent say they would not.

Democrats also shifted in a little over a year, from 70 percent saying their senator should vote for a well-qualified candidate and 19 percent saying they should not, to 57 percent support for a well-qualified candidate and 28 percent preferring their senator to vote against such a candidate.

Independents show relatively little change over this time. Sixty-two percent in 2016 and 66 percent in 2017 say they are willing for their senator to support a well-qualified candidate they disagree with, and 26 percent in 2016 and 21 percent in 2017 say they would be unwilling.

State issues and conditions

Voters are evenly divided on the direction of the state, with 49 percent saying Wisconsin is headed in the right direction and 47 percent saying it is off on the wrong track. When last asked in August 2016, 45 percent said right direction and 51 percent said the wrong track.

Ten percent of registered voters say the state is adding jobs faster than most other states, 39 percent say about the same as other states and 39 percent say Wisconsin is lagging behind most other states, while 11 percent say they don’t know. When last asked in November 2015, 57 percent said the state was lagging behind, 31 percent about the same and 6 percent said Wisconsin was creating jobs faster than other states, with 6 percent saying they didn’t know.

Twenty-nine percent of respondents say the state budget is in better shape than a few years ago, 28 percent say it is about the same and 33 percent say it is in worse shape, with 9 percent saying they don’t know. When asked in April 2015, during the last consideration of a state budget, perceptions were similar, with 33 percent saying the budget was better, 25 percent saying about the same and 38 percent saying it was in worse shape, while 4 percent didn’t know. The outlook was more positive in January 2014 when this question was first asked. At that time 49 percent said the budget was in better shape, 26 percent said it was the same and 20 percent said it was in worse shape.

Voters were reminded that the state borrowed more than $1.5 billion to pay for transportation and road building over the last two state budgets. Asked how the state should pay for transportation, 35 percent would increase taxes and fees, 3 percent would continue to borrow, 9 percent would reduce construction and maintenance and 44 percent would take money from others areas of the budget. Respondents were not asked which areas they would reduce in order to fund transportation.

Respondents were split on whether to reduce University of Wisconsin tuition by five percent for all in-state students (48 percent support) or  to use the equivalent amount of money to increase scholarships for low and middle-income students who qualify (45 percent support).  Those with household incomes under $40,000 prefer increased financial aid by a 55 percent to 36 percent majority, while those with household incomes over $75,000 prefer a 5 percent across the board tuition reduction by 54 percent to 44 percent. Those in between, earning $40,000 to $75,000, prefer tuition reductions by 50 percent to 43 percent.

Seventy-nine percent say they support requiring able-bodied parents of school-age children to meet minimum work or job training requirements as a condition of receiving state welfare benefits. Seventeen percent oppose such a requirement.

Eighty percent support increasing state aid to K-12 schools in the state, with 17 percent opposed.

Twenty-five percent say they are very satisfied with the public schools in their community, 49 percent are satisfied, 14 percent are dissatisfied and 6 percent are very dissatisfied. Those results are little changed from April 2015 when the question was last asked. At that time 25 percent were very satisfied, 50 percent satisfied, 16 percent dissatisfied and 5 percent very dissatisfied.

Satisfaction with public schools is lowest in the city of Milwaukee, where 7 percent say they are very satisfied, 40 percent satisfied, 36 percent dissatisfied and 11 percent very dissatisfied. That is little changed from previous waves of the poll.

In the rest of the Milwaukee media market, 23 percent are very satisfied, 49 percent satisfied, 15 percent dissatisfied and 7 percent very dissatisfied. In the Madison media market, 29 percent are very satisfied, 48 percent satisfied, 14 percent dissatisfied and 4 percent very dissatisfied. Thirty-one percent of respondents in the Green Bay media market say they are very satisfied with their public schools, with 52 percent satisfied, 5 percent dissatisfied and 5 percent very dissatisfied. In the northern and western parts of the state, 29 percent are very satisfied, 50 percent satisfied, 10 percent dissatisfied and 3 percent very dissatisfied with their public schools.

Whose facts do you trust?

Respondents were asked, “would you be more likely to believe the facts presented by newspaper and television media or would you be more likely to believe the facts presented by elected politicians?” Fifty-seven percent say they would believe the media, 22 percent would believe politicians and 18 percent say they would believe neither.

Evaluation of Wisconsin officials

Gov. Scott Walker receives a 45 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval rating in this poll. In October 2016, his approval rating was 42 percent with 51 percent disapproving.

Voters give similar approval ratings to Republicans and Democrats in the state legislature. Thirty-eight percent approve of the job Republican legislators are doing while 49 percent disapprove and 13 percent say they don’t know. When last asked in November 2015, 31 percent approved and 60 percent disapproved, with 9 percent saying they didn’t know. For Democratic legislators, 36 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove with 14 percent lacking an opinion. In November 2015, 39 percent approved, 49 percent disapproved and 12 percent had no opinion.

Sen. Ron Johnson is viewed favorably by 39 percent of respondents with, 34 percent holding an unfavorable view of him. Twenty-six percent say they didn’t know enough to have an opinion or they didn’t know. In October, 41 percent had a favorable view, 38 percent were unfavorable and 21 percent lacked an opinion.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 35 percent, with 24 percent lacking an opinion. In October, Baldwin was seen favorably by 37 percent and unfavorably by 37 percent, with 26 percent not giving an opinion.

Speaker Paul Ryan holds a 45 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable rating, with 17 percent unable to rate him. In October, 47 percent were favorable, 36 percent unfavorable and 17 percent gave no opinion.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, March 13-16, 2017. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points for the full sample.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 43 percent Republican, 48 percent Democratic and 8 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 41 statewide Marquette polls, with 36,152 respondents, is 43 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 27 percent Republican, 29 percent Democratic and 42 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 41 percent independent.

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump by 6 percentage points in Wisconsin; Senate race is virtually tied

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds 46 percent of Wisconsin likely voters supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and 40 percent supporting Republican Donald Trump in the race for president. Libertarian Gary Johnson is supported by 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein by 3 percent. Six percent do not express a preference, saying that they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote or don’t know how they will vote.

In the most recent Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Oct. 6-9, Clinton received 44 percent, Trump 37 percent, Johnson 9 percent and Stein 3 percent, with 6 percent not expressing a preference.

The new survey, the final Marquette Law School Poll to be conducted before the Nov. 8 election, additionally finds a very close U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin, with 45 percent of likely voters supporting Democrat Russ Feingold and 44 percent supporting Republican Ron Johnson. Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson has 3 percent support, while 5 percent do not express a candidate preference, saying that they will vote for none of the candidates, will not vote or don’t know how they will vote. In the poll conducted Oct. 6-9, Feingold held 46 percent to Johnson’s 44 percent, with Anderson at 4 percent and 5 percent without a preference.

In the presidential race, undecided and third-party voters are evenly divided along partisan lines. Among those not choosing a major-party presidential candidate, 42 percent are Republicans and 43 percent are Democrats, with 15 percent saying that they are independent or identify with other parties. Among those not choosing a major-party Senate candidate, 39 percent are Republicans and 38 percent are Democrats, with 23 percent saying that they are independent or identify with some other party.

Early voters make up 16 percent of the sample consisting of those likely to vote or who have already voted. Among early voters, Clinton receives 64 percent to 25 percent for Trump, 1 percent for Johnson and no votes for Stein. Six percent of early voters declined to say how they voted, and 3 percent said they voted for someone else. Among early voters for the Senate, Feingold receives 58 percent, Johnson 29 percent and Anderson 2 percent. Eight percent declined to say how they voted, and 3 percent said they voted for someone else. One percent said they did not vote for the Senate. The Wisconsin Elections Commission reported Tuesday that 518,600 early ballots had been cast, which would have been 16.9 percent of the 2012 presidential turnout of 3.071 million voters.

The full sample of the Oct. 26-31 survey comprises 1,401 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 1,255 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Shifts following news of FBI investigation of Clinton emails

The poll began interviewing voters on Wednesday, Oct. 26, and continued through Monday, Oct. 31. News of the FBI’s informing Congress that it is investigating recently discovered emails related to Clinton’s private email server was released during this period: specifically, on Friday, Oct. 28. The sample can be divided by day of interview before or after that news, and comparing voter responses by the day of the interviews allows an estimate of how voters responded to this news. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

Combining all interviews, 50 percent say they are bothered a lot by Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, 23 percent say they are bothered a little and 26 percent say this doesn’t bother them at all.

In interviews conducted Wednesday and Thursday, before the news of the FBI investigation, the responses were 50 percent bothered a lot, 23 percent bothered a little and 26 percent not bothered at all, the same as the overall results. In Friday interviews, mostly conducted after the news was released, 60 percent said they were bothered a lot, 18 percent bothered a little and 22 percent not bothered. In interviews completed Saturday, Sunday or Monday, 48 percent said the use of the private email server bothered them a lot, 24 percent said they were bothered a little and 28 percent said they were not bothered at all.

In Wednesday and Thursday interviews, 47 percent favored Clinton and 36 percent favored Trump. In Friday interviews, Trump was supported by 48 percent and Clinton by 40 percent. Interviews completed Saturday through Monday found Clinton with a 46 percent to 40 percent advantage over Trump.

When results are broken down by party identification, there is little change among Democrats, who supported Clinton by 88 percent on Wednesday and Thursday, 88 percent on Friday and 90 percent Saturday through Monday. Among Democrats, Trump received 6 percent, 2 percent and 3 percent on those days respectively.

Among Republicans, Trump received 73 percent support on Wednesday and Thursday, 87 percent on Friday and 86 percent on Saturday through Monday, with Clinton receiving 8 percent, 9 percent and 4 percent among Republicans on those days.

Independents shifted from a 41 percent to 34 percent Clinton advantage over Trump on Wednesday and Thursday, to a 44 percent to 34 percent Trump advantage over Clinton on Friday and a 43 percent to 35 percent Trump advantage in Saturday through Monday interviews.

For comparison, the Senate vote shifted little over those days, with a 45 to 45 tie in Wednesday and Thursday interviews, a 47-40 Johnson advantage on Friday and a 46-42 Feingold advantage in Saturday through Monday interviews.

“Concern about Clinton’s use of a private email system does not appear to have shifted much in the wake of the FBI news. The vote margin overall shows a little tightening, from an 11-point Clinton lead before the news to a 6-point lead after the news,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll and professor of law and public policy. “Within partisan identifiers, there is evidence that some undecided Republicans moved to support of Trump over the survey period and that independents shifted from a Clinton advantage to a Trump advantage, though all the shifts are inside the margin of error.”

Gender and education gaps

Among likely voters, 46 percent of men support Trump and 41 percent support Clinton. Among women, Clinton is supported by 50 percent and Trump by 34 percent. Johnson receives 4 percent among each gender and Stein is supported by 2 percent of men and 3 percent of women.

Within the parties, the gender gap persists among Republicans, with 86 percent of men supporting Trump compared to 76 percent of women, and Clinton getting 6 percent of the vote from men and 7 percent from women. Differences among Democrats are small, with 88 percent of Democratic men and 90 percent of Democratic women supporting Clinton, while 3 percent of Democratic men and 5 percent of women say they will vote for Trump. There is a larger gender gap among independents, with Trump leading 45 percent to 37 percent among men and Clinton leading 39 percent to 32 percent among women.

An education gap among non-Hispanic whites has developed in this year’s polling. The new poll finds that 45 percent of non-Hispanic whites without a college degree support Trump while 41 percent support Clinton. Among non-Hispanic whites with a college degree, Clinton is supported by 46 percent and Trump by 39 percent.

Comparison of candidate traits

Asked if “honest” describes Clinton, 28 percent of likely voters say that it does, while 68 percent say that it does not. For Trump, 36 percent say “honest” describes him, while 61 percent say it does not. In the Oct. 6-9 poll, 29 percent of likely voters described Clinton as honest and 66 percent did not. Thirty-three percent described Trump as honest in that poll, while 64 percent did not.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters describe Clinton as someone who “cares about people like me” and 51 percent do not. Thirty-seven percent say Trump cares about people like them while 61 percent do not see him this way. In the previous poll, 47 percent described Clinton as caring while 50 percent did not. In that poll, 35 percent said Trump cares while 61 percent did not see him that way.

Asked if a candidate has the qualifications to be president, 59 percent say Clinton does, while 39 percent say she does not. Thirty-five percent say Trump has the qualifications to be president, while 61 percent say he does not. In early October, 58 percent described Clinton as qualified and 40 percent said she was not, while 33 percent described Trump as qualified and 65 percent said he was not.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters say “shows good judgment” describes Clinton, while 51 percent say it does not. For Trump, 28 percent say “shows good judgment” describes him, with 70 percent saying it does not. In the Oct. 6-9 poll, 48 percent said Clinton shows good judgment while 50 percent did not. For Trump in the previous poll, 28 percent said he shows good judgment and 70 percent did not.

Respondents were asked how comfortable they were with the idea of each candidate as president. Forty-seven percent of likely voters say they are very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton as president, with 52 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 42 percent saying they are “very uncomfortable.” For Trump, 39 percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with him as president, while 62 percent say they are very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 51 percent saying “very uncomfortable.” In the previous poll, 46 percent were very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton and 53 percent were very or somewhat uncomfortable. For Trump in early October, 35 percent were very or somewhat comfortable and 63 percent were very or somewhat uncomfortable.

Views of Senate candidates

Partisans remain strongly aligned with their Senate nominees, with 86 percent of Republicans backing Johnson and 85 percent of Democrats supporting Feingold. In the Oct. 6-9 poll, 89 percent of Republicans favored Johnson and 90 percent of Democrats supported Feingold. In the new poll, six percent of Republicans said they would vote for Feingold while 8 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Johnson. In the previous poll, Feingold received 7 percent of the Republican vote and Johnson got 5 percent of the Democratic vote.

Independents give Johnson a 46 percent edge to Feingold’s 40 percent, a reversal of the previous poll in which independents leaned to Feingold by 44 percent to 37 percent for Johnson.

Forty-five percent describe Johnson as someone who “cares about people like me,” while 41 percent say this does not describe him, unchanged from the previous poll. Forty-nine percent describe Feingold as caring about people like them, while 39 percent say that this does not describe him. Three weeks ago, 52 percent said Feingold cares and 36 percent said he did not.

Fifty percent say “honest” describes Johnson and 33 percent say it does not. Fifty percent say “honest” describes Feingold and 39 percent say it does not. In the previous poll, 49 percent said “honest” described Johnson and 33 percent said it did not. For Feingold, 52 percent described him as honest while 36 percent did not in the previous poll.

Among all likely voters, 43 percent have a favorable view of Johnson, 40 percent hold an unfavorable view and 18 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they view him. Feingold is viewed favorably by 46 percent, unfavorably by 42 percent, and 12 percent say they lack an opinion of him. Anderson is viewed favorably by 3 percent, unfavorably by 6 percent, and 90 percent lack an opinion of him. In September, Johnson was seen favorably by 43 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 37 percent, with 20 percent lacking an opinion. Feingold was viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent, with 15 percent lacking an opinion of him. In the previous poll, 4 percent had a favorable view of Anderson, 7 percent an unfavorable view and 89 percent did not have an opinion of him.

Concerns about presidential candidates

Fifty-two percent of registered voters say that the video of Trump talking about his treatment of women “bothers them a lot,” while 23 percent say it bothers them a little and 23 percent say this doesn’t bother them. This is similar to the 50 percent who say they are bothered a lot by Clinton’s use of a private email server, with 23 percent bothered a little and 26 percent who say they are not bothered by it.

Asked about a leaked email quoting Clinton as saying politicians must have a public agenda and a private one, 41 percent say this bothers them a lot, 27 percent say it bothers them a little and 29 percent say it does not bother them.

Forty-two percent say they are bothered a lot by Trump’s decision not to release his tax returns, while 20 percent are bothered a little and 38 percent are not bothered about this.

Seventy-five percent of registered voters say Trump has the physical capacity to meet the demands of the presidency, while 21 percent say he does not. Sixty-seven percent say Clinton has the physical capacity for the presidency while 28 percent say she does not.

Issues regarding the election

Thirty-eight percent of registered voters say that they are very confident the votes for president will be accurately counted, with 30 percent somewhat confident, 18 percent not very confident and 12 percent not at all confident. Among Republicans, 22 percent are very confident the vote will be accurately counted, 36 percent somewhat confident, 28 percent not very confident and 13 percent not at all confident. Among Democrats, 57 percent are very confident of an accurate vote count, with 25 percent somewhat, 11 percent not very and 6 percent not at all confident in the vote count. Thirty-six percent of independents are very confident of an accurate count, with 30 percent somewhat, 18 percent not very and 16 percent not at all confident in the accuracy of the vote count.

Among registered voters, 25 percent are very concerned that the Russians may attempt to influence the election, 31 percent are somewhat concerned, 18 percent not very concerned and 23 percent not at all concerned. Among Democrats, 38 percent are very concerned, with 34 percent somewhat, 16 percent not very and 12 percent not at all concerned about Russian influence. Among Republicans, 15 percent are very concerned about Russian influence in the election, with 29 percent somewhat, 23 percent not very and 32 percent not at all concerned about Russian influence. Twenty-three percent of independents are very concerned, 31 percent somewhat concerned, 18 percent not very concerned and 26 percent not at all concerned about Russian influence in the American election.

New voters

Among all registered voters, 10 percent say this will be the first time they vote in a presidential election. Among Republicans, 8 percent say this will be their first presidential vote, among Democrats 9 percent are new voters, and among independents 14 percent are new voters.

Among new voters who are registered to vote, Clinton and Trump each receive 31 percent, with Johnson getting 14 percent, Stein 11 percent and 14 percent not expressing a preference. Among new likely voters Trump receives 41 percent to Clinton’s 34 percent, Johnson’s 5 percent and Stein’s 8 percent. However, the new-voter samples are too small to be considered reliable estimates. The margin of error is +/-14 percentage points for new likely voters. Among all new voters, the margin of error is +/- 12 percentage points.

Outlook for Congress and party leadership

Asked if it is appropriate for an opposition party in Congress to adopt the attitude that their greatest priority is to ensure that the president is not reelected in 2020, 72 percent of registered voters say that this is not appropriate while 16 percent say it is appropriate. Majorities of each partisan group say such an approach is not appropriate, with 67 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of Democrats and 77 percent of independents saying such an approach is not appropriate. Twenty percent of Republicans, 17 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of independents say such an approach is appropriate.

Asked whom they would rather see lead the Republican party in 2017, 20 percent of registered voters say Trump, 13 percent Sen. Ted Cruz and 51 percent Rep. Paul Ryan. Among Republicans, 36 percent prefer Trump, 16 percent Cruz and 42 percent Ryan. Democrats prefer Ryan by 58 percent to 12 for Cruz and 8 for Trump. Independents prefer Ryan by 53 percent to 13 percent for Cruz and 19 percent for Trump.

Talk about politics

Far more people talk about politics frequently with family and friends than they do at work. Seventy-two percent of registered voters talk at least weekly about politics with family and friends, with 13 percent doing so once or twice a month and 8 percent a few times a year. Six percent never discuss politics. With co-workers, 44 percent talk politics at least weekly, 10 percent once or twice a month and 8 percent a few times a year. Thirty-eight percent never discuss politics with co-workers.

Among all registered voters, 34 percent say they have stopped talking about politics with someone due to disagreements about the election. In 2012, the last polls before the recall election for governor of Wisconsin that June and before the November general election found that 35 percent and 33 percent respectively had stopped talking to someone about politics. Before the November 2014 election, 27 percent said they had stopped talking to someone because of politics.

Views of the vice-presidential candidates

Republican vice-presidential candidate Mike Pence is viewed favorably by 37 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 30 percent, with 33 percent lacking an opinion about him. In the Aug. 4-7 poll following the national party conventions, Pence was viewed favorably by 24 percent and unfavorably by 21 percent, with 55 percent lacking an opinion.

Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Kaine is viewed favorably by 27 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 31 percent, with 42 percent lacking an opinion about him. In the Aug. 4-7 poll, Kaine was viewed favorably by 20 percent and unfavorably by 20 percent, with 60 percent lacking an opinion.

Job approval of Walker and Obama

Approval of how Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is handling his job stands at 42 percent, with disapproval at 51 percent among all registered voters. In the Oct. 6-9 poll, approval was 44 percent and disapproval was 51 percent.

President Barack Obama’s job approval stands at 52 percent, with 44 percent disapproval. In the previous poll, 52 percent approved and 43 percent disapproved.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 1,401 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Oct. 26-31, 2016. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points for the full sample. For likely voters, the unweighted sample size is 1,255 and weighted sample size is 1,190, with a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points. When broken down by day of interview, the margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

The partisan makeup of the full registered-voter sample, including those who lean to a party, is 42 percent Republican, 48 percent Democratic and 8 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 40 statewide Marquette polls, with 34,751 respondents, is 43 percent Republican and 47 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 27 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic and 37 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 38 percent independent.

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Wisconsin voters shifting support to Clinton after Trump video release

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds 44 percent of Wisconsin likely voters supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for president and 37 percent supporting Republican Donald Trump, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3 percent. Six percent do not express a preference, saying that they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote or don’t know how they will vote.

The poll was conducted Oct. 6-9 and was completed before the second presidential debate. The poll began interviewing voters the day before the Washington Post published a story and a 2005 recording in which Trump described, in graphic detail, his treatment of women.

“The publication appears to have caused a significant shift in Wisconsin voters’ attitudes, across several different demographics,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll.

In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Sept. 15-18, Clinton was supported by 41 percent and Trump by 38 percent among likely voters, with Johnson at 11 percent, Stein at 2 percent and 7 percent not having a preference.

In the new poll’s head-to-head matchup (as opposed to the four-way race), Clinton receives 46 percent to Trump’s 42 percent of likely voters, with 9 not giving a preference. In the September head-to-head matchup, among likely voters, Clinton had the support of 44 percent and Trump was supported by 42 percent, with 12 percent not expressing a preference.

In Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, 46 percent of likely voters support Russ Feingold, 44 percent back Sen. Ron Johnson and 4 percent choose Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson. Five percent do not express a preference. In September, Feingold was supported by 44 percent, Johnson by 39 percent and Anderson by 7 percent, with 10 percent not giving a preference.

In a head-to-head matchup, among likely voters, 48 percent support Feingold and 46 percent support Johnson, with 6 percent lacking a preference. In September, Feingold was the choice of 47 percent to Johnson’s 41 percent, with 11 percent not stating a preference.

The full sample of the Oct. 6-9 survey comprises 1,000 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 878 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. When broken down by day of interview, the margin of error for Thursday‘s sample is +/-5.9 percentage points and +/-7.8 percentage points for the Friday and combined Saturday and Sunday samples.

Shifts following release of Trump 2005 video

The October poll began interviewing voters on Thursday, one day before the Washington Post report on the 2005 Trump video. Comparing voter responses by the day interviews took place allows an estimate of how vote preferences shifted after the release.

Among all likely voters interviewed on Thursday, Trump led Clinton by 1 percentage point. Among those interviewed on Friday, Clinton led Trump by 6 percentage points. On Saturday and Sunday combined, Clinton led Trump by 19 percentage points.

All Likely Voters Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 40 44 49
Trump 41 38 30
Johnson 9 8 9
Stein 3 2 5
Clinton minus Trump margin -1 +6 +19

Shifts are also present across several demographic and political groups. Among men, Trump’s 12-point lead on Thursday expanded to a 16-point advantage Friday but reversed to a 1-point Clinton advantage Saturday and Sunday.

Among Men Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 35 28 40
Trump 47 44 39
Johnson 10 11 11
Stein 4 5 4
Clinton minus Trump margin -12 -16 +1

Among women, the shift was larger. A Thursday 9-point advantage for Clinton shifted to a 27‑point advantage on Friday and to a 33-point advantage on Saturday and Sunday.

Among Women Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 45 60 56
Trump 36 33 23
Johnson 8 4 8
Stein 2 0 5
Clinton minus Trump margin +9 +27 +33

Among evangelical or born-again Protestants, one of Trump’s stronger supporting groups, Thursday saw Trump leading Clinton by 40 percentage points. That advantage shrank to 23 percentage points on Friday and to 16 percentage points on Saturday and Sunday.

Among Protestant Evangelicals Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 24 32 31
Trump 64 55 47
Johnson 7 2 7
Stein 0 0 3
Clinton minus Trump margin -40 -23 -16

Non-Hispanic white voters without a college degree have been a strong supporting group for Trump. On Thursday, Trump held a 15-point advantage over Clinton with these voters. On Friday his advantage was 3 points, and on Saturday and Sunday this group of non-Hispanic whites without a degree favored Clinton by 7 points over Trump.

Non-college,

non-Hispanic whites

Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 33 38 42
Trump 48 41 35
Johnson 9 9 10
Stein 2 4 4
Clinton minus Trump margin -15 -3 +7

Among non-Hispanic whites with a college degree, Clinton led by 16 percentage points on Thursday, a margin that reversed to a 4-percentage-point Trump advantage on Friday before reversing again to a 26-percentage-point Clinton lead on Saturday and Sunday.

College,

non-Hispanic whites

Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 48 40 54
Trump 32 44 28
Johnson 11 10 6
Stein 5 0 6
Clinton minus Trump margin +16 -4 +26

The few Democrats supporting Trump on Thursday, 7 percent, fell to 2 percent on Friday and rose to 3 percent on Saturday and Sunday, while party loyalty to Clinton rose from 88 percent on Thursday to 95 percent on Friday and settled back to 89 percent on Saturday and Sunday.

Democrats Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 88 95 89
Trump 7 2 3
Johnson 2 0 3
Stein 2 0 4
Clinton minus Trump margin +81 +93 +86

Republicans maintained substantial party loyalty for Trump over the four days, though not as high as Democrats showed for Clinton. On Thursday, Trump received 80 percent support from Republicans, which slipped to 70 percent on Friday before rising to 78 percent on Saturday and Sunday. Clinton received 5 percent of Republicans’ support on Thursday, 9 percent on Friday and 3 percent on Saturday and Sunday. Support for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson rose from 8 percent of the Republican response on Thursday to 12 percent on Friday and 11 percent on Saturday and Sunday.

Republicans Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 5 9 3
Trump 80 70 78
Johnson 8 12 11
Stein 2 6 1
Clinton minus Trump margin -75 -61 -75

Among independents, Clinton led by 1 point on Thursday, by 4 points on Friday and by 15 points on Saturday and Sunday.

Independents Thursday Friday Sat/Sunday
Clinton 33 38 40
Trump 32 34 25
Johnson 18 11 15
Stein 5 0 7
Clinton minus Trump margin +1 +4 +15

 Comparison of candidate traits

Asked if “honest” describes Clinton, 29 percent of likely voters say that it does, while 66 percent say that it does not. For Trump, 33 percent say “honest” describes him, while 64 percent say it does not. In September, 32 percent of likely voters described Clinton as honest and 64 percent did not. Thirty-four percent described Trump as honest in that poll, while 63 percent did not.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters describe Clinton as someone who “cares about people like me” and 50 percent do not. Thirty-five percent say Trump cares about people like them while 61 percent do not see him this way. In September, 46 percent described Clinton as caring while 52 percent did not. In that poll, 36 percent said Trump cares while 61 percent did not see him that way.

Asked if a candidate has the qualifications to be president, 58 percent say Clinton does, while 40 percent say she does not. Thirty-three percent say Trump has the qualifications to be president, while 65 percent say he does not. In September, 60 percent described Clinton as qualified and 39 percent said she was not, while 37 percent described Trump as qualified and 61 percent said he was not.

The October poll asked for the first time if “shows good judgment” describes each candidate. For Clinton, 48 percent of likely voters said this describes her while 50 say it does not. For Trump, 28 percent say “shows good judgment” describes him with 70 percent saying it does not.

Respondents were asked how comfortable they were with the idea of each candidate as president. Forty-six percent of likely voters say they are very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton as president, with 53 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 44 percent saying they are “very uncomfortable.” For Trump, 35 percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with him as president, while 63 percent say they are very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 53 percent saying “very uncomfortable.” In September, 47 percent were very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton and 53 percent were very or somewhat uncomfortable. For Trump in September, 36 percent were very or somewhat comfortable and 64 percent were very or somewhat uncomfortable.

Views of Senate candidates

Each party has strongly aligned behind its candidate for the U.S. Senate. Johnson receives 89 percent of Republicans’ support, Feingold 7 percent and Anderson 2 percent. Among Democrats, Feingold receives 90 percent to 5 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Anderson. Independents give 44 percent to Feingold, 37 percent to Johnson and 9 percent to Anderson. For comparison, among likely voters, Trump receives 77 percent of the Republican vote and Clinton 90 percent of the Democratic vote, while independents divide 37 percent for Clinton to 30 percent for Trump.

Forty-five percent describe Johnson as someone who “cares about people like me,” while 41 percent say this does not describe him. Fifty-two percent describe Feingold as caring about people like them, while 36 percent say that this does not describe him. In September, 37 percent described Johnson as caring while 43 percent said this did not describe him. At that time, 50 percent said Feingold cares and 33 percent said he did not.

Forty-nine percent in the October poll say “honest” describes Johnson and 33 percent say it does not. Fifty-two percent say “honest” describes Feingold and 36 percent say it does not. This question had not been asked before.

Among all likely voters, 43 percent have a favorable view of Johnson, 37 percent hold an unfavorable view and 20 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they view him. Feingold is viewed favorably by 45 percent, unfavorably by 40 percent, and 15 percent say they lack an opinion of him. Anderson is viewed favorably by 4 percent, unfavorably by 7 percent, and 89 percent lack an opinion of him. In September, Johnson was seen favorably by 35 percent of likely voters, unfavorably by 39 percent and 26 percent lacked an opinion. Feingold was viewed favorably by 48 percent, unfavorably by 32 percent, and 19 percent lacked an opinion of him. When last asked in August, 3 percent had a favorable view of Anderson, 4 percent an unfavorable view and 92 percent did not have an opinion of him.

Job approval of Walker and Obama

Approval of how Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is handling his job stands at 44 percent, with disapproval at 51 percent among all registered voters. In September, approval was 43 percent and disapproval was 52 percent.

President Obama’s job approval stands at 52 percent, with 43 percent disapproval. In September, 54 percent approved and 41 percent disapproved.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Oct. 6‑9, 2016. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points for the full sample. For likely voters, the unweighted sample size is 878 and weighted sample size is 839, with a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. When broken down by day of interview, the margin of error for Thursday‘s sample is +/-5.9 percentage points and +/-7.8 percentage points for the Friday and combined Saturday and Sunday samples.

The partisan makeup of the full registered-voter sample, including those who lean to a party, is 44 percent Republican, 47 percent Democratic and 8 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 39 statewide Marquette polls, with 33,751 respondents, is 42 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 35 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 38 percent independent.