MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice for president of 52% of registered voters and former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris receives 53% and Trump 47%. These results include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.

In a May 6-15, 2024, Marquette Law School Poll national survey, Trump was the choice of 50% and President Joe Biden was the pick of 50% Among registered voters, while Trump took 51% of likely voters and Biden 49%.

When the ballot question explicitly includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent candidate Cornel West, Harris receives 47% and Trump 41% Among registered voters. Kennedy is supported by 9%, Oliver receives 1%, Stein is the choice of 2%, and West wins 1%, among these voters. Among likely voters, Harris is supported by 50% and Trump 42%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, and West 0%.

In a generic question about congressional races, 52% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 48% will vote for the Republican candidate. In May, 50% picked the Democrat and 50% picked the Republican.

The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.

Reaction to Biden’s withdrawal and to Harris

A large majority of Democrats are satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 87% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee, 10% very or somewhat dissatisfied, and 3% who say they don’t know. The poll was completed before Harris secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates.

A substantial majority of all registered voters, 80%, say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 13% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 87% say Biden should have withdrawn.

Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 43% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 11% say they don’t know.

A majority, 56%, say Biden should not resign and should serve out his term as president, while 31% say he should resign and 13% don’t know.

When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 58% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 42% say Harris will definitely or probably win.

The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than with Harris as the candidate. Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 69% say Trump would definitely or probably win, while 19% say Biden would win and 12% say they don’t know.

Perceptions of the candidates

Since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50% of registered voters, while 3% say they haven’t heard enough. In May, 35% had a favorable opinion of Harris and 59% had an unfavorable view of her, and 6% hadn’t heard enough. The full trend of Harris favorability is shown in Table 1. This July poll is the best net favorability rating in Marquette polling for Harris since she became vice president.

Table 1: Harris favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/24-8/1/24	-3	47	50	3
5/6-15/24	-24	35	59	6
3/18-28/24	-25	35	60	5
2/5-15/24	-19	37	56	7
11/2-7/23	-26	34	60	6
9/18-25/23	-20	37	57	6
7/7-12/23	-25	33	58	9
5/8-18/23	-26	32	58	10
3/13-22/23	-21	33	54	13
1/9-20/23	-21	35	56	9
11/15-22/22	-16	36	52	12
9/7-14/22	-15	38	53	9
1/10-21/22	-14	37	51	12
11/1-10/21	-8	39	47	14
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was chosen as the Democratic nominee for vice president after the poll was completed.

Opinions of Trump and Vance

Following the July 13 assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee July 15-18, favorability toward Trump rose to 45%, with 53% unfavorable and 1% without an opinion. In May, 41% viewed Trump favorably and 58% unfavorably, with 1% lacking an opinion. The full trend for Trump favorability since 2021 is shown in Table 2. Trump’s net favorability hit a low point in January 2022 but has improved notably in 2023 and 2024. His July net favorability is his best rating since November 2021.

Table 2: Trump favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/24-8/1/24	-8	45	53	1
5/6-15/24	-17	41	58	1
3/18-28/24	-13	43	56	1
2/5-15/24	-9	45	54	1
11/2-7/23	-15	42	57	2
9/18-25/23	-15	42	57	1
7/7-12/23	-28	35	63	2
5/8-18/23	-21	38	59	2
3/13-22/23	-29	34	63	2
1/9-20/23	-26	36	62	2
11/15-22/22	-36	31	67	1
9/7-14/22	-30	34	64	2
7/5-12/22	-27	35	62	3
5/9-19/22	-23	37	60	2
3/14-24/22	-22	38	60	2
1/10-21/22	-37	31	68	1
11/1-10/21	-34	32	66	2
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance is seen favorably by 29% and unfavorably by 45%, with 25% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance is seen much more favorably by Republicans and is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially Democrats, as shown in Table 3. Substantial percentages of each partisan group, and particularly independents, say they have not yet formed an opinion of Vance.

Table 3: Vance favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	58	16	26
Independent	22	35	43
Democrat	4	74	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (name) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Vance is seen as an excellent pick for the vice-presidential slot by 12%, as a good choice by 21%, as a fair choice by 14%, and as a poor selection by 36%, with 17% who say they don’t know. Almost two-thirds of Republicans rate the choice of Vance as excellent or good, while just under half of independents say fair or poor, and almost two-thirds of Democrats rate it poor, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Vance as VP, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Rate choice of Vance as VP
	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Don’t know
Republican	25	40	17	9	9
Independent	6	13	29	20	31
Democrat	1	4	10	63	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How would you rate Trump’s choice of Vance for vice president? Would you rate this choice as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Biden and the “double haters”

Favorability toward Biden improved slightly following his withdrawal from the presidential race to 42% favorable and 58% unfavorable, a 3-point improvement in favorability ratings. The full trend for Biden since November 2021 is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Biden favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/24-8/1/24	-16	42	58	1
5/6-15/24	-21	39	60	1
3/18-28/24	-20	40	60	1
2/5-15/24	-20	40	60	1
11/2-7/23	-19	40	59	1
9/18-25/23	-21	39	60	1
7/7-12/23	-17	41	58	1
5/8-18/23	-23	37	60	3
3/13-22/23	-15	41	56	3
1/9-20/23	-11	43	54	2
11/15-22/22	-6	46	52	3
9/7-14/22	-9	44	53	2
7/5-12/22	-26	35	61	3
5/9-19/22	-17	40	57	3
3/14-24/22	-10	44	54	2
1/10-21/22	-6	46	52	3
11/1-10/21	-5	45	50	5
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” declined slightly in July. For Biden and Trump, 21% were unfavorable to both in May, a group which group shrank to 14% in July. For Harris and Trump, 10% have an unfavorable view of both in July, a decrease from May when 21% were unfavorable to both Harris and Trump.

Characteristics of Harris, Trump and Biden

The replacement of Biden by Harris has changed the relative perceptions of the candidates, with Harris having different perceived traits from Biden. Table 6 shows which phrases describe Harris, Trump, and Biden. The Biden numbers are from the May poll, while Harris and Trump perceptions are from July.

Unlike Biden, few respondents (13%) see Harris as too old to be president; the number was 79% for Biden. Trump is seen as too old by 57%.

Harris performs slightly better than Biden or Trump on “shares my values,” and is less likely to be seen as having behaved corruptly than is Biden and much less so than is Trump.

Trump maintains an advantage on having strong accomplishments, where Harris is seen as only slightly more accomplished than Biden.

Harris has a substantial advantage over Trump on having the right temperament to be president and does a bit better than Biden on this.

Trump is seen as a strong leader by more voters than is Harris, although the margin is modest.

Table 6: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump or Biden

Among registered voters

Candidate	How well phrase describes
	Very/somewhat well	Not too/not at all well
Is too old to be president
Harris	13	87
Trump	57	43
Biden	79	21
Shares your values
Harris	51	49
Trump	45	55
Biden	45	55
Has behaved corruptly
Harris	35	65
Trump	61	39
Biden	44	56
Strong record of accomplishments
Harris	44	56
Trump	53	47
Biden	41	59
Has the right temperament to be president
Harris	58	42
Trump	41	59
Biden	52	48
Is a strong leader
Harris	50	50
Trump	56	44
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)(Joe Biden)?
Note: Biden items asked in May. Strong leader was not asked in May.

Respondents were also asked if Harris and Trump have the communication skills to succeed as president. For Harris, 50% say she does have the skills needed and 38% say she does not, while 12% say they don’t know. For Trump, 48% say he has the communication skills to succeed as president, while 47% say he does not and 5% say they don’t know. This has not been asked about Biden.

Following Trump’s New York criminal trial in May, 56% say Trump is guilty as the jury found, while 33% say he is not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling, and 11% don’t know.

Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in September. Twenty-six percent say he should be given no penalty at all, 13% say a fine only, 10% say probation without jail, 38% say he should be sentenced to jail, and 13% don’t know.

On July 15, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon in Florida dismissed the classified-documents case against Trump, ruling that the appointment of the special prosecutor violated the Constitution. In the survey, 39% favor that decision, while 44% oppose the ruling and 17% say they don’t know. A majority, 75%, believe Trump had top secret and other classified documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago in Florida in 2022, while 24% believe he did not.

Ideological perceptions of the candidates

Both candidates are seen as more ideologically extreme than voters see themselves. Among all registered voters, 36% describe themselves as having “moderate” political views, 13% say their views are “very conservative,” and 12% say they are “very liberal.”

Among registered voters, 19% see Harris as moderate, while 41% see her as very liberal. Ten percent of voters see Trump as moderate and 48% see him as very conservative. These perceptions, along with those of Biden, are shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Ideological perceptions of candidates and self

Among registered voters

Perception of	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
Harris	3	7	19	30	41
Trump	48	31	10	4	6
Biden	3	9	25	25	39
Self	13	24	36	15	12
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views? Note: Biden measured in May survey

Which candidate is better on issues

Table 8 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy. He also holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, ensuring fair and accurate elections, Medicare and Social Security, and health care.

Between 14% and 22% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.

Table 8: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

Issue	Who better
	Harris	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good
Immigration and border security	35	53	5	7
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza	32	46	10	12
The economy	37	49	10	4
Foreign relations	41	44	9	6
Health care	47	35	11	7
Medicare & Social Security	49	36	10	6
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	48	33	11	8
Abortion policy	54	31	8	6
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Most important issue

Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration. Three issues are tied for next most important—abortion policy, Medicare and Social Security, and ensuring fair elections—as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Most important issue

Among registered voters

	Most important
Response	Percent
The economy	38
Immigration and border security	15
Abortion policy	10
Medicare & Social Security	10
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	10
Health care	5
Foreign relations	3
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza	2
Don’t know	7
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 10. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important and immigration a distant second, with no other issue reaching double digits. Democrats put the economy first, followed by abortion policy, ensuring fair elections, and Medicare and Social Security. Only 4% of Democrats rank immigration as their top concern.

Table 10: Most important issue, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Issue
	The economy	Immigration and border security	Health care	Foreign relations	Abortion policy	Medicare & Social Security	The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	Ensuring fair and accurate elections	Don’t know
Republican	48	28	2	3	2	7	1	5	4
Independent	34	11	3	1	2	9	3	9	27
Democrat	29	4	9	3	18	13	3	15	7
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Support for deporting illegal immigrants

Support for deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally varies depending on the framing of the issue. A random half-sample of the survey was asked:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?

With this wording, 61% favor deportation and 39% are opposed.

The other half-sample was asked:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs, and no criminal record?

When worded this way, 45% favor deportations and 55% are opposed.

Multicandidate vote trends

The trend in vote preference including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 11. Oliver, the Libertarian, was not included prior to this July poll. The total third-party vote has declined from 20% in February to 13% now, with Kennedy falling from 15% to 9% over that time Among registered voters.

Table 11: Vote including third-party candidates

Poll dates	Vote choice
	Biden/Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oliver	Stein	West
Registered voters
7/24-8/1/24	47	41	9	1	2	1
5/6-15/24	37	40	17	n/a	3	3
3/18-28/24	38	41	14	n/a	2	5
2/5-15/24	39	42	15	n/a	2	3
Likely voters
7/24-8/1/24	50	42	6	1	1	<.5
5/6-15/24	41	44	11	n/a	2	2
3/18-28/24	41	41	13	n/a	2	4
2/5-15/24	40	43	14	n/a	1	1
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West?

Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting

Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from May to July, as shown in Table 12. In the current survey, 54% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, a substantial increase from 43% in May. This was the first substantial movement in enthusiasm in 2024, with less than 50% saying they were very enthusiastic in all previous 2024 polls until July.

Table 12: Enthusiasm to vote in November election

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
7/24-8/1/24	54	26	14	6
5/6-15/24	43	26	21	10
3/18-28/24	37	28	26	9
2/5-15/24	41	33	19	7
11/2-7/23	42	32	21	5
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Enthusiasm has increased substantially among Democrats, with a small increase among Republicans. Republicans had a consistent enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls, but this has been mostly erased now, as shown in Table 13. Independents have a quite low level of enthusiasm, which increased only slightly in the latest poll.

Table 13: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Democrat
7/24-8/1/24	55	26	15	5
5/6-15/24	34	31	24	11
3/18-28/24	35	27	31	8
2/5-15/24	34	33	25	8
11/2-7/23	36	34	23	7
Independent
7/24-8/1/24	24	21	29	26
5/6-15/24	20	15	33	32
3/18-28/24	18	30	25	26
2/5-15/24	21	32	27	20
11/2-7/23	20	36	33	10
Republican
7/24-8/1/24	58	27	11	4
5/6-15/24	55	22	16	6
3/18-28/24	43	29	21	7
2/5-15/24	52	33	12	4
11/2-7/23	54	28	16	2
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

The race is very tight among the very and somewhat enthusiastic, with a slight Harris edge among the very enthusiastic and a slight Trump advantage among the somewhat enthusiastic. Those who are not too enthusiastic and those not at all enthusiastic give Harris larger margins, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Vote for Harris or Trump by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Harris	Trump	Someone else
Very enthusiastic	52	48	0
Somewhat enthusiastic	49	50	1
Not too enthusiastic	55	45	0
Not at all enthusiastic	62	38	0
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump]?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

In May, with Biden as the Democratic candidate, this enthusiasm gap was much more pronounced, as shown in Table 15. Trump held a larger margin then with the very enthusiastic than Harris now has and Biden had larger margins than either candidate now has with all less enthusiastic groups.

Table 15: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm, May 2024

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump
Very enthusiastic	38	62
Somewhat enthusiastic	57	43
Not too enthusiastic	55	45
Not at all enthusiastic	69	31
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between President Joe Biden, the Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Biden and Trump presidential job approval

Biden’s job approval in July stands at 39%, with disapproval at 61%, little changed since May. Table 16 shows the recent trend in job approval.

Table 16: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
7/24-8/1/24	39	61	16	23	19	42
5/6-15/24	40	60	13	27	17	44
3/18-28/24	40	60	12	27	14	46
2/5-15/24	38	62	12	26	18	43
11/2-7/23	40	60	13	26	16	45
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In July, 48% approved and 52% disapproved. The recent trend is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Trump retrospective job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
7/24-8/1/24	48	52	29	19	10	42
5/6-15/24	46	54	26	20	13	41
3/18-28/24	47	53	25	22	12	40
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president?

Economic conditions and personal financial situation

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 4%, as good by 30%, as not so good by 33%, and as poor by 33%. Views of the economy have seen an increasing percentage saying the economy is “poor” since February, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll dates	National economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
7/24-8/1/24	4	30	33	33
5/6-15/24	3	28	38	31
3/18-28/24	5	28	38	29
2/5-15/24	6	29	40	25
11/2-7/23	3	24	40	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 38% say they are living comfortably, 41% say they are just getting by, and 21% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 19. The percentage who say they are struggling has risen slightly since February, while the percentage living comfortably has declined slightly.

Table 19: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
7/24-8/1/24	38	41	21
5/6-15/24	40	42	18
3/18-28/24	46	38	16
2/5-15/24	42	41	17
11/2-7/23	39	43	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

A final look at Biden vs. Trump since 2021

 

The Marquette Law School Poll has found a small but consistent Trump advantage over Biden Among registered voters since May 2023. This was a change from the earlier 2023 Marquette Law School Poll surveys, which saw Biden and Trump drawing equal support, and from the 2022 and 2021 polls, which showed Biden with sizeable leads over Trump. The trend, including those saying they would vote for someone else or not vote, is shown in Table 20

Table 20: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, including someone else, November 2021-July 2024

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Vote
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
7/24-8/1/24	43	47	11	0
5/6-15/24	40	44	14	2
3/18-28/24	42	44	13	2
2/5-15/24	42	45	9	4
11/2-7/23	40	42	15	2
9/18-25/23	39	44	12	4
7/7-12/23	37	38	19	5
5/8-18/23	34	41	19	7
3/13-22/23	38	38	20	4
1/9-20/23	40	40	17	3
11/15-22/22	44	34	19	4
9/7-14/22	42	36	19	3
3/14-24/22	43	38	16	4
1/10-21/22	45	33	18	4
11/1-10/21	43	35	18	4
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options included someone else and wouldn’t vote)
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options included someone else and wouldn’t vote)

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court are held for release on Aug. 9. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.

Poll also finds Baldwin holding 7-point lead over Hovde in U.S. Senate race, third-party candidates for president fading, and overall opinions of Harris improving since pre-candidacy surveys

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds former President Donald Trump with 50% and Vice President Kamala Harris with 49% among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup in the race for president. Among likely voters, Harris is the choice of 50% and Trump the choice of 49%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.

In June, before the debate between President Joe Biden and Trump and with Biden as the Democratic candidate, Biden and Trump each received 50% among Wisconsin registered voters, while Biden received 51% and Trump 49% among likely voters.

In a multicandidate race, Harris, a Democrat, is the choice of 45% and Trump, a Republican, 43%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 8%, Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry <0.5%, and independent Cornel West <0.5%, among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Harris 46%, Trump 45%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry <0.5%, and West <0.5%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 53% to Republican Eric Hovde’s 46% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 52% and Hovde receives 47%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. On the initial question, before that “if you had to choose” follow-up, Baldwin receives 47%, Hovde 39%, and 14% say they are undecided, among registered voters.

When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, Baldwin receives 50%, Hovde receives 44%, Phil Anderson (the “Disrupt the Corruption” party candidate) receives 2% and Thomas Leager, of the “America First” party, receives 2%, among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 51% and Hovde 45%, with 2% each for Anderson and Leager.

The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 877 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The poll included 801 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. (All results are stated as percentages.)

While the race for president remains very close in Wisconsin, when asked who they think is likely to win in November, 51% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 39% say Harris will definitely or probably win and 11% say they don’t know.

The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than the perceived chances with Harris as the candidate. Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 20% say Biden would definitely or probably win, while 69% say Trump would win.

A substantial majority (79%) say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 15% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 91% say Biden should have withdrawn.

Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 42% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 10% say they don’t know.

A majority (58%) say Biden should not resign but should serve out his term as president, while 33% say he should resign and 9% say they don’t know.

Democrats are overwhelmingly satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 92% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee and 7% very or somewhat dissatisfied.

The poll was completed before she secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates on Aug. 2. A majority (54%) of Democrats think the party should settle on a nominee before the convention, while almost a third (32%) say there should be an open convention and 13% don’t know.

Favorability to candidates

 

Harris is seen in this survey favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 53% of registered voters, with 6% saying they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. When this question was last asked about Harris in June 2022, 36% had a favorable opinion and 49% had an unfavorable view, with 15% who did not have an opinion of her.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was chosen as the Democratic nominee for vice president after the poll was completed.

In this survey, following the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee July 15-18, favorability toward Trump in Wisconsin rose to 44%, with 54% unfavorable and 2% without an opinion. In June, his favorability was 41%, with 57% unfavorable and 2% lacking an opinion.

Favorability toward Biden was unchanged from June, following his withdrawal from the presidential race, remaining at 40% favorable, while his unfavorable rating declined one percentage point to 57%.

Those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates—the so-called “double haters”—declined slightly in July. For Biden and Trump, 17% were unfavorable to both in June. That group declined to 14% in July. For Harris and Trump, 11% have an unfavorable view of both in July.

Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance is seen favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 41%, with 29% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance is seen much more favorably by Republicans, but is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially Democrats, as shown in Table 1. Substantial percentages of each partisan group, and especially independents, say they have not yet formed an opinion of Vance.

Table 1: Vance favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Republican	63	8	28	1
Independent	13	31	55	0
Democrat	1	78	20	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [name] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Vance is seen as an excellent pick for the vice-presidential slot by 17%, as a good choice by 25%, as a fair choice by 10%, and as a poor selection by 35%, with 14% who say they don’t know. More than three-quarters of Republicans rate the choice of Vance as excellent or good, while independents are more divided and more than two-thirds of Democrats rate it poor, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Vance as VP, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Rate choice of Vance as VP
	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	Don’t know
Republican	32	45	7	8	8
Independent	8	23	23	17	28
Democrat	3	4	9	68	16
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How would you rate Trump’s choice of Vance for vice president? Would you rate this choice as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting

 

Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from June to July, as shown in Table 4. In the current survey, 61% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, a substantial increase from 46% in June. This was the first substantial movement in enthusiasm in 2024, with fewer than 50% in all prior Marquette Law School Poll surveys of Wisconsin voters in 2024 saying they were very enthusiastic. For comparison, in the previous presidential cycle in early August 2020, 62% were very enthusiastic, basically the same level as now matched for the first time in 2024, but such enthusiasm was also seen in earlier Marquette Law School Poll surveys in 2020, unlike this year.

Table 4: Enthusiasm to vote in November election

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
7/24-8/1/24	61	21	15	4
6/12-20/24	46	21	19	14
4/3-10/24	47	22	18	12
1/24-31/24	49	25	17	9
10/26-11/2/23	46	28	19	6
8/4-9/20	62	20	8	9
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Enthusiasm has increased primarily among Democrats and, to a lesser degree, among independents and Republicans. Republicans had a substantial enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls in 2024, but that has been mostly erased now, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Democrat
7/24-8/1/24	62	19	15	4
6/12-20/24	40	24	20	16
Independent
7/24-8/1/24	37	20	26	17
6/12-20/24	30	17	23	29
Republican
7/24-8/1/24	64	22	12	1
6/12-20/24	57	19	16	8
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Those who are very enthusiastic give Trump a slight edge over Harris, while those somewhat enthusiastic give Harris an even slighter edge. Those who are not too enthusiastic and those not at all enthusiastic give Harris larger margins, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Vote for Harris or Trump, by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump	Haven’t decided	Refused
Very enthusiastic	47	52	0	0
Somewhat enthusiastic	50	49	2	0
Not too enthusiastic	55	43	2	0
Not at all enthusiastic	60	36	4	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

In June, with Biden as the Democratic candidate, this enthusiasm gap was much more pronounced, as shown in Table 7. At that time, Trump held a larger margin with the very enthusiastic than he now holds over Harris among that group, and Biden had larger margins over Trump with all other enthusiasm groups than Harris now holds.

Table 7: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm, June 2024

Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Haven’t decided/Neither
Very enthusiastic	39	61	0
Somewhat enthusiastic	57	43	0
Not too enthusiastic	58	41	1
Not at all enthusiastic	65	33	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between President Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Characteristics of Harris, Trump, and Biden

The replacement of Biden by Harris has changed the relative perceptions of the candidates, with Harris having different perceived traits from Biden. Table 8 shows which phrases describe Harris, Trump, and Biden. The Biden numbers are from the June poll while Harris and Trump perceptions are from July, the new survey.

Table 8: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump or Biden

Among registered voters

Candidate	How well phrase describes
	Very/somewhat well	Not too/not at all well
Is too old to be president
Harris	12	87
Trump	59	40
Biden	76	24
Shares your values
Harris	51	49
Trump	46	54
Biden	43	57
Has behaved corruptly
Harris	37	62
Trump	62	37
Biden	46	53
Strong record of accomplishments
Harris	44	55
Trump	54	46
Biden	43	57
Has the right temperament to be president
Harris	56	43
Trump	42	58
Biden	52	48
Is a strong leader
Harris	50	50
Trump	58	42
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 (Note: Biden items asked in June. Strong leader was not asked in June.)
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)(Joe Biden)?

Respondents were also asked if Harris and Trump have the communication skills to succeed as president. For Harris, 52% say she does have the skills needed and 39% say she does not, while 9% say they don’t know. For Trump, 49% say he has the communication skills to succeed as president, while 49% say he does not and 1% say they don’t know. This has not been asked about Biden.

With respect to his New York criminal trial in May, 52% say Trump was guilty as the jury found, while 36% say he is not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling. Eleven percent don’t know.

Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in September. In July, 28% say he should be given no penalty at all, 11% say a fine only, 11% say probation without jail, 38% say he should be sentenced to jail, and 12% don’t know.

Issues in the presidential campaign

 

Table 9 shows which candidate it is thought would do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy, and holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, health care, ensuring fair and accurate elections, and on Medicare and Social Security.

Between 8% and 20% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.

Table 9: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

Issue	Who better
	Harris	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good
Immigration and border security	36	52	6	5
Israel-Hamas war	33	47	7	13
The economy	39	51	6	3
Foreign relations	44	47	4	4
Medicare & Social Security	48	39	9	4
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	47	36	9	7
Health care	49	36	10	5
Abortion policy	53	34	6	6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Most important issues

Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by abortion policy, and immigration, with Medicare and Social Security as fourth most important, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Most important issue

Among registered voters

	Most important issue
Response	Percent
The economy	38
Abortion policy	14
Immigration and border security	13
Medicare & Social Security	9
Health care	7
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	6
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	3
Foreign relations	2
Don’t know	7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 11. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with no other issue reaching double digits. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, followed by Medicare and Social Security with the economy third. Only 1% of Democrats rank immigration as their top issue concern, as do 7% of independents.

Table 11: Most important issue, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Issue
	The economy	Immigration and border security	Health care	Foreign relations	Abortion policy	Medicare & Social Security	The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	Ensuring fair and accurate elections	Don’t know
Republican	55	26	2	2	5	2	0	3	5
Independent	45	7	9	3	7	7	6	2	14
Democrat	17	1	13	1	26	18	5	11	8
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Support for deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally varies depending on the framing of the issue. A random half-sample of the survey was asked:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?

With this wording, 64% favor deportation and 34% are opposed, with 2% who say they don’t know.

The other half-sample was asked:

Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs, and no criminal record?

When worded this way, 44% favor deportations and 55% are opposed, with a half-percent who don’t know.

Two-thirds of registered voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. and one third say it should be illegal in all or most cases. This has changed little since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Abortion opinion trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know
7/24-8/1/24	33	34	27	5	1
6/12-20/24	34	32	26	8	0
4/3-10/24	28	36	26	9	1
6/8-13/23	32	34	25	6	1
8/10-15/22	30	35	25	5	3
6/14-20/22	27	31	24	11	5
10/26-31/21	23	38	23	11	4
2/19-23/20	18	37	22	15	6
10/24-28/18	26	29	24	14	4
9/12-16/18	26	36	21	9	6
7/11-15/18	27	36	18	11	6
10/23-26/14	24	34	24	15	3
10/21-24/13	26	36	25	10	2
10/25-28/12	28	32	23	12	4
10/11-14/12	25	34	25	12	3
9/27-30/12	25	35	23	12	3
9/13-16/12	26	34	23	13	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Multicandidate vote trends

The trend in vote preference including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 13. Oliver was not included prior to the June poll and Terry appears for the first time in July. The total third-party vote has declined in the poll’s surveys, from 22% in January to 10% now, with Kennedy falling from 16% to 8% over that time among registered voters.

Table 13: Vote including third-party candidates

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Vote choice
	Biden/Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oliver	Stein	Terry	West	Don’t know
Registered voters
7/24-8/1/24	45	43	8	1	1	<.5	<.5	0
6/12-20/24	40	43	8	2	2	n/a	4	1
4/3-10/24	40	41	13	n/a	3	n/a	2	1
1/24-31/24	37	40	16	n/a	4	n/a	2	1
Likely voters
7/24-8/1/24	46	45	6	1	1	<.5	<.5	0
6/12-20/24	42	44	7	1	2	n/a	3	1
4/3-10/24	41	42	12	n/a	3	n/a	1	1
1/24-31/24	39	41	13	n/a	4	n/a	2	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West? Note: Prior to July the vote choice asked about Joe Biden.

In the multicandidate ballot test in July, Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans (10%) than from Democrats (4%).

Independent voters are more drawn to the third-party candidates than are Republican or Democratic voters. Kennedy receives 21% from independents, Oliver 3%, Stein 2%, Terry <0.5%, and West 1%. This remains a minority of independent voters; among independents in the multicandidate race, Trump receives 38% and Harris 35%.

These results are shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Multicandidate ballot, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Biden/Harris	Trump	Kennedy	Oliver	Stein	Terry	West	Don’t know
7/24-8/1/24
Republican	4	85	10	<.5	<.5	<.5	<.5	0
Independent	35	38	21	3	2	<.5	1	0
Democrat	91	1	4	2	2	<.5	<.5	0
6/12-20/24
Republican	2	86	6	2	1	n/a	2	1
Independent	21	32	26	4	9	n/a	8	1
Democrat	85	2	6	1	2	n/a	4	0
4/3-10/24
Republican	4	79	13	n/a	3	n/a	<.5	1
Independent	23	32	32	n/a	5	n/a	4	5
Democrat	85	1	8	n/a	4	n/a	2	0
1/24-31/24
Republican	5	76	16	n/a	1	n/a	1	0
Independent	33	27	28	n/a	3	n/a	4	2
Democrat	73	5	12	n/a	8	n/a	2	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West? Note: Prior to July the vote choice asked about Joe Biden.

Senate vote by party identification

As shown in Table 15, among registered voters who identify as Democrats (or who lean), Baldwin receives 98% and Hovde 2%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 88%, while Baldwin takes 11%. Independents favor Baldwin by 52% to Hovde’s 46%.

With likely voters, partisan loyalty is slightly higher for both parties, but independents favor Hovde with 50% and 48% for Baldwin

Table 15: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde	Haven’t decided
Registered voters
Republican	11	88	1
Independent	52	46	1
Democrat	98	2	1
Likely voters
Republican	9	91	0
Independent	48	50	2
Democrat	99	1	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between (Eric Hovde, the Republican), and (Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat), would you vote for (Eric Hovde) or for (Tammy Baldwin) or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for (Hovde) or for (Baldwin?)

The multicandidate Senate vote by party identification in July is shown in Table 16. Third-party candidate support is highest among independents and lowest among Democrats.

Table 16: Multicandidate Senate vote

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Baldwin	Hovde	Anderson	Leager	Don’t know
Registered voters
Republican	8	88	2	2	0
Independent	42	34	9	7	8
Democrat	96	2	1	1	0
Likely voters
Republican	8	89	2	2	0
Independent	44	36	9	8	2
Democrat	98	<.5	<.5	<.5	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the U.S. Senate ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde, Disrupt the Corruption Party’s Phil Anderson, or America First Party’s Thomas Leage?

Senate candidate favorability

In the current survey, Baldwin’s favorable rating is 44% and her unfavorable rating is also 44%, with 12% saying they don’t know enough about her. Since January, Baldwin’s favorable rating has increased two points and her unfavorable has decreased by one percentage point.

Hovde is seen favorably by 24% and unfavorably by 37%, with 38% who haven’t heard enough. The number of those without an opinion of Hovde has declined from 82% in January to 38% in July. In that time, his favorable rating has increased by 17 percentage points and his unfavorable by 28 percentage points.

These favorability trends are shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Favorability to Senate candidates

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Tammy Baldwin
7/24-8/1/24	0	44	44	12
6/12-20/24	1	45	44	11
4/3-10/24	5	47	42	11
1/24-31/24	-3	42	45	13
10/26-11/2/23	-2	41	43	15
6/8-13/23	3	40	37	22
Eric Hovde
7/24-8/1/24	-13	24	37	38
6/12-20/24	-9	23	32	44
4/3-10/24	-5	19	24	56
1/24-31/24	-2	7	9	82
6/8-13/23	-4	4	8	85
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Biden and Trump presidential job approval

 

Biden’s job approval in July stands at 42%, with disapproval at 57%­—­­little changed since June. Table 18 shows the recent trend in job approval.

Table 18: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
7/24-8/1/24	42	57	18	23	12	45
6/12-20/24	40	57	16	24	10	47
4/3-10/24	40	57	16	24	8	49
1/24-31/24	41	58	18	23	10	48
10/26-11/2/23	42	57	17	25	12	44
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In July, 48% approved and 51% disapproved, an increase in approval of one percentage point since June. For comparison, Trump’s approval in the last Marquette Law School poll before the 2020 election was 47% approve and 52% disapprove. The recent trend is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Trump retrospective job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
7/24-8/1/24	48	51	32	16	8	43
6/12-20/24	47	52	30	16	8	44
4/3-10/24	47	52	26	21	9	43
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president?

Economic conditions and personal financial situation

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 5%, as good by 28%, as not so good by 33%, and as poor by 33%. Views of the economy have fluctuated modestly since November 2023, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll dates	National economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
7/24-8/1/24	5	28	33	33
6/12-20/24	4	30	34	32
4/3-10/24	5	28	38	28
1/24-31/24	6	32	34	28
10/26-11/2/23	3	24	36	37
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 44% say they are living comfortably, 40% say they are just getting by, and 15% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 21. The percentage living comfortably has declined by 4 percentage points since November 2023, while the percentage just getting by has increased by 4 percentage points. The percentage struggling is the same as in November 2023.

Table 21: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
7/24-8/1/24	44	40	15
6/12-20/24	46	37	17
4/3-10/24	45	40	15
1/24-31/24	49	38	13
10/26-11/2/23	48	36	15
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court

 

Table 22 shows the approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers. Evers’s approval is 51% and disapproval is 44%. In June, Evers’s approval was 51% and disapproval was 44%.

Table 22: Approval of Tony Evers’ job performance

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
7/24-8/1/24	51	44	5
6/12-20/24	51	44	6
4/3-10/24	52	44	3
1/24-31/24	51	44	5
10/26-11/2/23	53	46	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

Thirty-three percent approve of the way the state legislature is handling its job, while 54% disapprove and 12% don’t know. This trend is shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Approval of Wisconsin legislature’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
7/24-8/1/24	33	54	12
4/3-10/24	34	56	9
1/24-31/24	34	58+	8
10/26-11/2/23	40	57	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?

Table 24 shows the recent trend in approval of the way the Wisconsin Supreme Court is handling its job. In July, 46% approve and 37% disapprove, with 17% who don’t know.

Table 24: Approval of Wisconsin Supreme Court’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
7/24-8/1/24	46	37	17
4/3-10/24	46	39	15
1/24-31/24	45	43	13
10/26-11/2/23	51	43	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 877 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The sample contains 801 likely voters, those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 653 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 224 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 737 respondents and with 140 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 31% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 40% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.