MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 41% of adults approve of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is doing its job, while 59% disapprove. This is a 6-percentage-point decline from January when 47% approved and 53% disapproved.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Table 1. Approval has oscillated since 2020 but, in each cycle, has reached a lower peak than the previous cycle, before again turning down. The peak in September 2020 was 66%, followed by peaks of 54% in November 2021 and March 2022, with the most recent peak of 47% in January 2023. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted May 8-18, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,010 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.

Table 1: Overall, how much do youapprove or disapprove of the way theU.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
9/8-15/20	66	33
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/7-16/21	49	50
11/1-10/21	54	46
1/10-21/22	52	46
3/14-24/22	54	45
5/9-19/22	44	55
7/5-12/22	38	61
9/7-14/22	40	60
11/15-22/22	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
3/13-22/23	44	56
5/8-18/23	41	59

Table 2 shows approval by partisanship in each Marquette poll taken in 2023. There are sharp partisan divides, but approval has declined among both Republicans and Democrats. Approval is little changed among independents. (Unless otherwise stated, independents who say they are closer to one party are included with partisans of that party.)

Table 2: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?, by party identification

Party ID	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	1/9-20/23	69	31
Republican	3/13-22/23	66	34
Republican	5/8-18/23	60	40
Independent	1/9-20/23	35	63
Independent	3/13-22/23	32	67
Independent	5/8-18/23	34	65
Democrat	1/9-20/23	31	69
Democrat	3/13-22/23	26	74
Democrat	5/8-18/23	24	76

Justice Thomas financial disclosure reports

The May survey was conducted after a series of news stories concerning Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure statements, which did not report a real estate sale or certain travel expenses paid by others. Thirty-three percent said they had heard a lot about this, while 32% had heard a little and 35% had heard nothing at all.

Those who follow politics most of the time were more likely to have heard of the financial disclosure reports than those who pay less attention to politics generally, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: News stories about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports. (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?) By attention to politics.

Attention to politics	Heard a lot	A little	Nothing at all
Most of the time	60	28	12
Less often	18	34	48

Similarly, those with more information about the U.S. Supreme Court, measured by knowledge of which party’s presidents have nominated a majority of justices on the Court, are more likely to have heard a lot about the disclosure reports, shown in Table 4.

Table 4: News stories about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports. (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?) By knowledge of majority of Court appointments.

Court majority	Heard a lot	A little	Nothing at all
Definitely/Probably majority appointed by Dems	13	35	52
Probably majority appointed by Reps	27	34	39
Definitely majority appointed by Reps	62	25	12

Democrats are more likely to say they have heard a lot about the disclosure reports than are Republicans or independents, as shown in Table 5. Independents are especially more likely to say they have heard nothing at all about this.

Table 5: News stories about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports. (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?) By party identification.

Party identification	Heard a lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	26	42	31
Independent	14	26	60
Democrat	49	24	27

The partisan differences persist within levels of general attention to politics and specific knowledge about the Court, as shown in Table 6 (a) and Table 6 (b).

Table 6: News stories about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports. (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?) By party identification.

(a) By attention and party identification

Party identification	Attention to politics	Heard a lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	Most of the time	43	46	11
Republican	Less often	15	40	45
Independent	Most of the time	46	26	28
Independent	Less often	8	26	66
Democrat	Most of the time	77	13	10
Democrat	Less often	29	33	39

(b) By knowledge of majority of Court appointments

Party identification	Court majority	Heard a lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	16	42	43
Republican	Probably Rep majority	25	43	32
Republican	Definitely Rep majority	44	43	13
Independent	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	7	21	72
Independent	Probably Rep majority	11	32	57
Independent	Definitely Rep majority	40	21	39
Democrat	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	14	35	50
Democrat	Probably Rep majority	36	28	36
Democrat	Definitely Rep majority	76	16	8

Perception of ethical standards of legal and media actors

Respondents rated the “honesty and ethical standards” of U.S. Supreme Court justices, state judges, lawyers,  journalists, and cable TV news, as shown in Table 7. In all five groups, more respondents rate honesty and ethical standards as low or very low than rate them as high or very high. The extent of negativity varies considerably, with ratings of state judges and Supreme Court justices slightly negative, journalists and lawyers substantially negative, and cable TV news extremely negative.

Table 7: Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields.

Group	Net	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
Judges in your state	-1	24	51	25
Supreme Court justices	-9	26	39	35
Journalists	-26	19	35	45
Lawyers	-29	14	43	43
Cable TV news	-49	8	35	57

Those who have heard a lot about Justice Thomas’ financial disclosure reports are especially likely to rate the ethical standards of the Supreme Court justices as low or very low, as shown in Table 8 (a). However, partisanship affects these ratings as well, as shown in Table 8 (b). Republicans who have heard a lot about the disclosure reports rate the ethical standards of justices as high or very high, while Democrats who have heard a lot are more likely to rate the ethical standards as low or very low. Independents who have heard a lot are more likely to rate the ethical standards as low or very low.

Table 8: U.S. Supreme Court Justices. (Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields.) By heard about financial disclosure reports

(a) By heard about financial disclosure reports

Heard of disclosure reports	Rate standards as very high/high	Average	Low/very low
A lot	28	25	46
A little	28	45	26
Nothing at all	20	48	32

(b) By heard about financial disclosure reports and party identification

Party ID	Heard of disclosure reports	Very high/high	Average	Low/very low
Republican	A lot	56	32	11
Republican	A little	34	51	15
Republican	Nothing at all	28	49	23
Independent	A lot	21	25	53
Independent	A little	11	43	46
Independent	Nothing at all	13	49	37
Democrat	A lot	15	21	64
Democrat	A little	28	37	35
Democrat	Nothing at all	19	43	38

Views of the justices

The justices are generally not well known, with a majority of the public saying they don’t know enough to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion about most justices. Justice Clarence Thomas is the most widely known and Justice Elena Kagan the least well known, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Some justices of the Supreme Court are better known than others. For each of these names, have you never heard of them, heard of them but don’t know enough to have an opinion of them, have a favorable opinion or have an unfavorable opinion?

(a) May 2023

Justice	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unable to rate
Samuel Alito	16	18	66
Amy Coney Barrett	19	27	55
Neil Gorsuch	19	16	65
Ketanji Brown Jackson	22	14	64
Elena Kagan	18	11	72
Brett Kavanaugh	22	32	46
John Roberts	22	18	60
Sonia Sotomayor	29	15	56
Clarence Thomas	25	36	40

(b) March 2023

Justice	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unable to rate
Samuel Alito	15	16	69
Amy Coney Barrett	22	27	51
Neil Gorsuch	18	15	67
Ketanji Brown Jackson	26	15	59
Elena Kagan	17	10	73
Brett Kavanaugh	25	34	41
John Roberts	25	15	60
Sonia Sotomayor	34	15	52
Clarence Thomas	29	32	38

Favorable ratings of most of the justices declined slightly from March to May, with similarly small increases in unfavorable ratings. The changes in ratings do not appear to be related to the justice’s judicial philosophy or party of the appointing president. Changes in ratings are shown in Table 10. Justice Thomas’ ratings became more negative, though the change is not substantially different from the changes of other justices.

Table 10: Changes in favorable and unfavorable ratings of justices from March to May, 2023

Justice	Favorable change	Unfavorable change
Samuel Alito	1	2
Amy Coney Barrett	-3	0
Neil Gorsuch	1	1
Ketanji Brown Jackson	-4	-1
Elena Kagan	1	1
Brett Kavanaugh	-3	-2
John Roberts	-3	3
Sonia Sotomayor	-5	0
Clarence Thomas	-4	4

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has declined since 2019, when 37% had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. In May 2023, similar confidence was expressed by 25%. Those with very little or no confidence increased from 20% in Sept. 2019 to 39% in May 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 11. As with approval of the Court, confidence has declined recently from January to May 2023.

Table 11: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The U.S. Supreme Court.

Poll dates	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
3/13-22/23	28	40	32
5/8-18/23	25	36	39

There generally is low confidence in American institutions, at least as with respect to the five institutions about which the survey inquired. Confidence in these government and media institutions is shown in Table 12. The Supreme Court has the least negative net confidence, followed by the presidency and local news media, with Congress and national news media being the most negatively viewed.

Table 12: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Institution	Net	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
The U.S. Supreme Court	-14	25	36	39
The Presidency	-20	25	30	45
Your local news media	-20	20	40	40
Congress	-38	11	41	49
The national news media	-41	16	27	57

Awareness of cases

The Supreme Court is not constantly in the news, unlike Congress or the president. Rather, coverage is concentrated around the announcement of decisions and, to some extent, the argument of cases or the appointment of justices. This fluctuating pattern of news means that much of the public may not hear about cases before they are ultimately decided and that there may be fluctuating awareness even of cases that are relatively high-profile (for example, a decreasing awareness from when a case is argued until it is decided, months later).

A majority of the public said they were aware the Court’s consideration of a Texas court ruling concerning a drug used in medication-induced abortions, mifepristone. Thirty-six percent said they had heard a lot about this, 36% heard a little, and 29% had heard nothing at all.

A smaller percentage, 16%, said they had heard or read a lot about “a Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions,” 44% had heard a little, and 40% had heard nothing at all. The cases, Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina, were argued Oct. 31, 2022. In the November Marquette poll, conducted shortly after oral argument in the case, 20% had heard a lot, 45% had heard a little, and 34% had heard nothing about this case.

Pending cases

The survey finds that the public is skeptical of the use of race in admissions, with 34% in favor of a decision that would ban the use of race and 12% opposed. The case is not yet on the top of the mind of most respondents, however, with 55% saying they haven’t heard anything about such a case or haven’t heard enough to have an opinion.

Polling on this topic since September 2021 has seen consistent opposition to the use of race in admissions. Table 13 (a) shows views including among those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 13 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 13: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	33	53	13
3/14-24/22	33	49	17
9/7-14/22	50	37	13
11/15-22/22	42	41	16
1/9-20/23	49	35	16
3/13-22/23	50	33	17
5/8-18/23	55	34	12

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	81	19
3/14-24/22	75	25
9/7-14/22	74	26
11/15-22/22	72	28
1/9-20/23	68	32
3/13-22/23	66	34
5/8-18/23	74	26

There are substantial partisan differences on this issue, as shown in Table 14. Among those with an opinion about the case, substantial majorities of Republicans and independents favor banning the use of race while Democrats are more evenly divided. Half or more of each partisan group have not heard enough about this case to have an opinion.

Table 14: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party ID	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
Republican	50	46	5
Independent	64	28	7
Democrat	55	25	21

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	91	9
Independent	80	20
Democrat	54	46

Another case, 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, argued Dec. 5, poses the question whether the religious beliefs or free speech rights of business owners can justify refusing to provide some services to LGBTQ customers. A plurality, 31%, oppose a decision allowing such a business to refuse services, while 23% favor such a ruling. As with college admissions, a substantial 46% have not heard of this case or have not heard enough to have an opinion. The trend in opinion on this question is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
3/14-24/22	29	28	43
9/7-14/22	44	21	35
11/15-22/22	35	25	40
1/9-20/23	43	24	33
3/13-22/23	42	25	33
5/8-18/23	46	23	31

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Heard of and favor such a ruling	Heard of and oppose such a ruling
3/14-24/22	39	61
9/7-14/22	37	63
11/15-22/22	39	61
1/9-20/23	43	57
3/13-22/23	43	57
5/8-18/23	43	57

Partisans differ on this case as well, with large and opposite majorities among Republicans and Democrats, while independents are closely divided, as shown in Table 16. Awareness of this case is slightly higher than for the use of race in college admissions, but more than 40% of each partisan group regard themselves as lacking enough information to have an opinion.

Table 16: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party ID	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
Republican	43	43	14
Independent	63	17	19
Democrat	41	6	53

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party ID	Heard of and favor such a ruling	Heard of and oppose such a ruling
Republican	76	24
Independent	48	52
Democrat	11	89

Prior decisions

In the current survey, 35% favor the June 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision, while 65% oppose the ruling in Dobbs. The trend in responses since November 2022 is shown in Table 17. Opinion has remained stable over this period.

Table 17: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. (How much do you favor or oppose this decision?)

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	33	66
1/9-20/23	35	64
3/13-22/23	33	67
5/8-18/23	35	65

Partisan differences are very large concerning the Dobbs decision, as shown in Table 18 for the May survey, with a majority of Republicans favoring the Dobbs decision and majorities of independents and Democrats opposed.

Table 18: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. (How much do you favor or oppose this decision?) By party identification, May 2023

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	58	42
Independent	37	63
Democrat	11	89

Looking back to earlier decisions, a substantial majority favor the Court’s 2015 ruling establishing a right to same-sex marriage, 67%, while 33% are opposed. The trend is shown in Table 19. Opinion on this has remained stable.

Table 19: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	69	31
7/5-12/22	66	34
9/7-14/22	71	29
11/15-22/22	72	28
1/9-20/23	67	33
3/13-22/23	65	35
5/8-18/23	67	33

Partisan differences on the same-sex marriage decision are shown in Table 20. Republicans are evenly divided, while independents and Democrats substantially favor the same-sex marriage decision.

Table 20: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? By party identification, May 2023

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	52	48
Independent	65	35
Democrat	82	18

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted May 8-18, 2023, interviewing 1,010 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available online. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

Here is the basic wording of the questions about cases before the Court in the October 2022 Term.:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

These are the wording of the questions about decisions of the Court prior to the current October 2022 Term.

Opinion of Dobbs decisions, striking down Roe v. Wade

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds very close races between President Joe Biden and either former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in hypothetical 2024 presidential elections. Among registered voters, Biden and Trump each receive 38% of the vote, with 20% saying that they would vote for someone else and 4% that they would not vote.

In a matchup between Biden and DeSantis, DeSantis receives 42% and Biden is the choice of 41%, with 13% saying they would vote for someone else and 4% saying they would not vote.

Table 1: Biden vs. Trump trend, among registered voters
Poll dates	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21	35	43	18	4
1/10-21/22	33	45	18	4
3/14-24/22	38	43	16	4
9/7-14/22	36	42	19	3
11/15-22/22	34	44	19	4
1/9-20/23	40	40	17	3
3/13-22/23	38	38	20	4

 The trend in the Biden vs. Trump matchup is shown in Table 1 and the Biden vs DeSantis trend is shown in Table 2. While Biden led Trump through 2022, the two have been tied in the first two 2023 polls. DeSantis has also moved into a very close race with Biden, leading Biden in January by 7 points but holding just a 1-point edge in March. In both matchups, the relatively high percentages saying they would vote for “someone else” or would not vote indicates the potential for volatility in coming months as candidate choices become clarified. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

 

Table 2: Biden vs. DeSantis trend, among registered voters

Poll dates	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote	Web blank
1/10-21/22	34	43	17	5	0
3/14-24/22	35	39	19	5	0
9/7-14/22	38	43	15	5	0
11/15-22/22	42	42	11	4	0
1/9-20/23	45	38	13	4	0
3/13-22/23	42	41	13	4	0

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Republican primary choices

Trump leads in the presidential nomination race, with 40% among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican, while DeSantis is the choice of 35%. Former Vice President Mike Pence is supported by 5% and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by 5%. No other potential candidate received more than 1% support, while 12% said they were undecided or did not support any of the 11 names offered in the question. Table 3 shows the full results.

Table 3: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, who would you vote for? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican. *=less than 0.5%

Candidate	Percent
Donald Trump	40
Ron DeSantis	35
Mike Pence	5
Nikki Haley	5
Mike Pompeo	1
Chris Sununu	1
Kristi Noem	*
Chris Christie	*
Tim Scott	*
Asa Hutchinson	*
Glenn Youngkin	*
Undecided	10
None of these	2

When asked to choose if the choice were between only Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 54% and Trump is the choice of 46%. That represents a sharp tightening of the race since January, when DeSantis received 64% to Trump’s 36%. The trend is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: If it were a choice between just the two of them, who would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
11/15-22/22	40	60
1/9-20/23	36	64
3/13-22/23	46	54

Among those who choose a candidate other than DeSantis or Trump in the multi-candidate question, DeSantis picks up almost three-quarters of the support when they are asked to decide between DeSantis and Trump. A handful of respondents shift away from their first choice of Trump or DeSantis in the subsequent two-candidate question. Those initially undecided or not choosing any named candidate split close to evenly when offered only Trump or DeSantis.

Table 5: Choice between Trump or DeSantis only, by first choice in multi-candidate question, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Respondent’s multi-candidate choice	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Trump	91	9
DeSantis	3	97
Other candidate	26	74
Undecided/None	43	56

DeSantis holds a slight lead among those who call themselves “Republicans,” but sees a larger advantage among independents who say they lean Republican, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by strength of Republican identification among registered voters

Strength of Republican identification	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Republican	48	52
Lean Republican	40	60

DeSantis has more support than Trump among those Republicans and Republican leaners who describe themselves as very or somewhat conservative, while Trump does better among those who consider themselves moderate or liberal.

Table 7: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by ideology among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Ideology	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Very conservative	46	54
Somewhat conservative	41	59
Moderate or liberal	53	46

Trump has greater support among Republicans without a college degree while DeSantis does better among those with at least a bachelor’s degree.

Table 8: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by education among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

College grad	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Non-college grad	51	49
College grad	37	63

DeSantis is well-liked among Republicans who also hold a favorable view of Trump, making him a competitor to Trump from inside Trump’s coalition. DeSantis is less well-liked among Republicans unfavorable to Trump. Table 9 shows favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump.

Table 9: DeSantis favorability, by Trump favorability among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Trump favorability	Favorable opinion of DeSantis	Unfavorable opinion of DeSantis	Haven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion	80	8	12
Unfavorable opinion	51	32	17

Despite leading Trump among those who prefer a candidate other than Trump or DeSantis, DeSantis has negative favorability among those respondents, and it is notably less favorable than among those who make Trump their top pick in the multi-candidate choice question. DeSantis has a quite favorable rating among those for whom Trump is their first choice for the presidential nomination.

Table 10: DeSantis favorability, by multi-candidate first choice among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Multi-candidate 1st choice	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Trump	71	10	19
DeSantis	93	5	2
Other candidate	36	42	23
Undecided/None	30	35	35

Favorability toward potential GOP candidates

For Republican voters, Trump is nearly universally known and Pence and DeSantis are fairly well-known. Most other potential Republican candidates are far less familiar to Republican voters. Table 11 shows the favorable, unfavorable, and haven’t-heard-enough responses to eight potential candidates.

 

Table 11: Favorability ratings of potential Republican candidates, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Trump	66	31	2
Pence	48	41	11
DeSantis	69	15	15
Pompeo	31	24	45
Haley	40	13	47
Scott	30	7	63
Noem	26	9	64
Youngkin	23	11	66

Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans and independents who lean Republican has declined since July 2022, when he peaked in the Marquette survey at 76%, to 66%, despite a 70% favorable rating in January. The full trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Trump favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	70	29	1
1/10-21/22	71	28	1
3/14-24/22	75	23	1
5/9-19/22	75	22	2
7/5-12/22	76	22	2
9/7-14/22	74	25	1
11/15-22/22	67	32	1
1/9-20/23	70	28	2
3/13-22/23	66	31	2

DeSantis’s favorable ratings also dipped slightly in March after steadily rising in the previous year of polling, as shown in Table 13.

 

Table 13: DeSantis favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	57	9	34
3/14-24/22	57	7	35
5/9-19/22	58	15	27
7/5-12/22	62	9	29
9/7-14/22	65	10	25
11/15-22/22	68	10	22
1/9-20/23	71	10	19
3/13-22/23	69	15	15

Favorability to governors

For comparison with widely mentioned possible presidential candidates, the survey also asked about five Republican and five Democratic governors. These figures are all prominent in their own states but are not well-known nationally. For these ratings, each was identified as a governor and the state was mentioned, but not the governor’s party. The potential presidential candidates, discussed above, were not identified by current or past office. (Youngkin was included in both lists. Identifying him as governor of Virginia in the governors’ list only slightly reduced the percentage saying they hadn’t heard enough about him.)

Table 14 shows the favorability ratings for five Republican governors among Republicans and independents who lean Republican.

Table 14: Favorability ratings of Republican governors, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Greg Abbott, Texas	59	9	32
Brian Kemp, Georgia	28	12	60
Glenn Youngkin, Virginia	30	9	61
Mike DeWine, Ohio	20	10	69
Chris Sununu, New Hampshire	13	12	75

Favorability ratings for five Democratic governors, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, are shown in Table 15.

 

Table 15: Favorability ratings of Democratic governors, among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Gavin Newsom, California	48	16	35
Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan	43	5	52
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania	22	7	72
Wes Moore, Maryland	12	6	82
Jared Polis, Colorado	13	5	83

Presidential approval

Approval of Biden’s handling of his job as president declined in March to 39%, with 61% disapproving. In January, 43% approved and 56% disapproved. Biden’s approval in March is the second-lowest of his presidency in the Marquette Law School Poll. The full trend for Biden approval in Marquette Law School Poll national surveys is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Biden job approval, among all adults

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	45	55
11/15-22/22	45	55
1/9-20/23	43	56
3/13-22/23	39	61

Biden’s favorability ratings among all adults also closely mirrors his approval rating and also declined in March, as shown in Table 17.

 

Table 17: Biden favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	45	49	6
1/10-21/22	45	51	4
3/14-24/22	44	53	3
5/9-19/22	40	55	4
7/5-12/22	34	62	4
9/7-14/22	43	54	3
11/15-22/22	43	53	3
1/9-20/23	41	54	4
3/13-22/23	37	59	4

As shown in Table 18, Vice President Kamala Harris’s favorability is a bit below that of Biden, which is common for vice presidents, as is her higher “haven’t heard enough” percentage.

Table 18: Harris favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	38	46	16
1/10-21/22	37	49	14
9/7-14/22	36	52	13
11/15-22/22	34	50	16
1/9-20/23	32	54	13
3/13-22/23	31	54	16

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was mentioned frequently in recent coverage of a train derailment and chemical spill in Ohio. His favorable rating has barely changed since September, although his unfavorable ratings have increased since November and fewer people say they lack an opinion of him, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Buttigieg favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	28	27	45
9/7-14/22	26	33	42
11/15-22/22	26	29	45
1/9-20/23	25	32	43
3/13-22/23	26	36	38

The freight train derailment and hazardous chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio, were widely known, with 62% saying they had heard a lot about this, 25% saying they had heard a little, and 13% having heard nothing at all.

Those who heard a lot were more unfavorable to Buttigieg than those who heard less, although there was no difference on the favorable side of the ratings by amount heard concerning the derailment, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Buttigieg favorability rating by amount heard about train derailment, among all adults

Heard about derailment	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
A lot	29	41	30
A little	28	32	40
Nothing at all	7	25	69

Abortion issues

As stated in a release yesterday concerning the same national survey but focusing on public opinion about the Supreme Court, a majority, 67%, of all those polled oppose the Court’s 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned abortion rights established in Roe v. Wade in 1973, while 33% favor the Dobbs decision. Opposition to the Dobbs decision has remained stable since November 2022, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? among all adults

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	33	66
1/9-20/23	35	64
3/13-22/23	33	67

That is the only table repeated from yesterday’s release, given the relationship of its topic with the topics of the next two tables.

Opinion about abortion policy has fluctuated only slightly since May 2022, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? among all adults

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
5/9-19/22	29	38	24	8
7/5-12/22	28	36	27	8
9/7-14/22	31	37	26	6
11/15-22/22	29	36	26	9
1/9-20/23	26	38	28	8
3/13-22/23	28	39	27	6

As states have adopted widely varying laws concerning abortion following the Dobbs ruling, public opinion has strongly favored allowing abortion in cases of rape or incest, with 88% in favor and 11% saying abortion should not be allowed in these circumstances. In September 2022, 90% said abortion should be allowed and 10% said it should not be in this circumstance.

A large majority, 74%, oppose states being able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill prescriptions for medication to induce an abortion from out of state providers, while 26% favor states having that ability.

The public is substantially opposed to restrictions on travel to another state to obtain a legal abortion, with 81% saying states should not be able to make such travel illegal and 19% saying states should be able to ban out-of-state travel for abortions.

Opinion is evenly divided on a proposal to pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Table 23 shows opinion on this, with partisan differences. Republicans and Democrats are virtual mirror images on this question, while independents are more evenly divided.

Table 23: Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, among all adults

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Total	49	51
Republican	74	26
Independent	46	53
Democrat	25	75

Vouchers for private schools

Several states recently have passed or are considering proposals to provide state funding for vouchers to pay for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools. Opinion is closely divided on this among adults nationally, with substantial partisan differences as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, among all adults

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Total	53	47
Republican	62	38
Independent	60	37
Democrat	42	58

Support for such vouchers is stronger among those with school-age children in the home than those without children, shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, by school-age children in home, among all adults

School-age children?	Favor funding	Oppose
Kids at home	63	37
No kids at home	49	51

Those who say they are born-again Protestants or are Roman Catholics are more supportive of school vouchers than are those of other faiths or those without a religious identification, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools by religious identification, among all adults

Religion	Favor	Oppose
Born-again Protestant	67	33
Mainline Protestant	49	51
Roman Catholic	67	33
No religion	36	63
Other religion	48	51

Views of the police

Forty-four percent of respondents in this national poll say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police, 33% have some confidence, and 23% have little or no confidence. Confidence is higher among white respondents and lower among Hispanic and mixed-race people and is especially low among Black respondents, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: The police: here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicity	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
White	52	31	17
Black	17	39	44
Hispanic	33	38	28
Other/Multiple	37	33	29

A majority, 57%, say that recent killings of Black Americans by the police is part of a larger pattern of police treatment of Black people, while 43% say these are isolated incidents. Table 28 shows how these views differ by race and ethnicity of respondents.

Table 28: Do you think recent killings of Black Americans by police are isolated incidents or part of a larger pattern in the police’s treatment of Black Americans? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicity	Isolated incidents	Part of a larger pattern
White	54	46
Black	8	90
Hispanic	35	65
Other/Multiple	21	79

Aid to Ukraine

Opinion on U.S. military aid to Ukraine has shown partisan divisions in recent months. In this March poll, 34% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 41% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. The percentage saying “too much support” increased by 5 percentage points from January, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults

Poll dates	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
11/15-22/22	32	23	45
1/9-20/23	29	24	46
3/13-22/23	34	24	41

Table 30 shows partisan differences on aid to Ukraine in the March poll. Just over half of Republicans, 52%, say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 36% of Independents and 16% of Democrats agree with that view.

Table 30: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults

Party ID	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
Total	34	24	41
Republican	52	15	33
Independent	36	18	45
Democrat	16	36	48

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 55% say it is better for the country to take an active part, while 45% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out and a minority, 41%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are evenly split on international involvement, and Democrats are substantially in favor of a U.S. role in the world, as shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?, among all adults

Party ID	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs
Total	55	45
Republican	48	52
Independent	41	56
Democrat	67	33

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, March 29, 2023, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.