MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds that, just over a year from the election, the 2014 Wisconsin governor’s race is shaping up to be very competitive. Gov. Scott Walker polls at 47 percent of the vote to Democratic challenger Mary Burke’s 45 percent, a difference that is within the margin of error of the poll. Burke officially entered the race Oct. 7. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, who has said she will decide whether to enter the race in early 2014, receives 44 percent support to Walker’s 47 percent, also inside the margin of error. State Assembly Democratic Minority Leader Peter Barca receives 42 percent support to Walker’s 48 percent. The poll surveyed 800 Wisconsin registered voters Oct. 21-24 by both cell phone and landline. The survey has a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points. The public has yet to form strong impressions of Burke, a Madison school board member, former state commerce secretary and Trek Bicycle executive. Seventy percent of registered voters in the poll say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of Burke, while 17 percent have a favorable impression of her and 14 percent an unfavorable one. In contrast, only 4 percent are unable to give a rating to Walker, with 50 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable. Vinehout is seen favorably by 10 percent and unfavorably by 10 percent, with 79 percent unable to rate her, while Barca is viewed favorably by 9 percent and unfavorably by 9 percent, with 82 percent unable to give a rating. Walker and Burke both receive strong support within their party, with Walker getting 94 percent of the vote among Republicans and Burke supported by 88 percent of Democrats. Independents split 48 percent for Walker to 41 percent for Burke, with the remainder undecided or not planning to vote. Walker leads among those calling themselves “conservative” or “very conservative,” 72 percent to 21 percent, while Burke leads among self-described “moderates,” 46 percent to 42 percent. Among those who consider themselves “liberal” or “very liberal,” Burke leads 88 percent to 9 percent. Women prefer Burke by 49 percent to 42 percent for Walker, while men prefer Walker by 52 percent to 40 percent for Burke. This gender gap is slightly smaller for Vinehout, whom women prefer by 47-43, while men go for Walker 51-42. When Barca is the Democratic candidate, women prefer him by 46-43, with men preferring Walker 54-38. Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said, “The gender gap is due in part to the fact that women are more likely to identify themselves as Democrats, rather than purely a response to the candidates.” While 28 percent of both men and women call themselves Republicans, 35 percent of women consider themselves Democrats, with 29 percent of men doing so. Thirty-three percent of women call themselves independent versus 41 percent among men. Among all registered voters, 49 percent say they approve of Walker’s handling of his…

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds that job approval ratings for Gov. Scott Walker and President Barack Obama both have slipped below 50 percent in Wisconsin, with sharp differences evident among blocks of swing voters and across various regions in the state. Walker's job approval in July stands at 48 percent, with 46 percent disapproval. In May, approval was 51 percent with disapproval at 45 percent. In March, approval was 50 percent with 44 percent disapproval. The three-point shift from May to July is within the 3.7 percentage-point margin of error for the poll. Walker’s approval has hovered between 50 and 51 percent since the recall election in June 2012, falling below 50 percent in three of eleven polls, including this latest one. Obama's job approval in July is 47 percent with 46 percent disapproval. In May, it was 50-45 and in March 48-45. Despite their similar overall approval ratings, the public is sharply divided between the two: 34 percent approve of Obama and disapprove of Walker; 36 percent disapprove of Obama and approve of Walker. Eleven percent approve of both while 9 percent disapprove of both. The remaining 10 percent lack an opinion about one or both. Partisanship sharply divides views of Obama and Walker, but there is slightly more polarization of opinion of the president than of the governor. Democrats approve of Obama by a 90-8 margin, while Republicans approve of Walker by 81-12. Republicans disapprove of Obama by 10-86 while Democrats disapprove of Walker by 12-82. For the president that is a net polarization of 79 percentage points out of a possible 100, while for the governor the net polarization is 69.5 percentage points. Differing views for independents, moderates Two categories of swing voters provide different views of both Obama and Walker. Independents have a net negative evaluation of Obama’s handling of his job: 40 percent approve while 52 percent disapprove. In contrast, the same voters give a net positive rating to Walker, as 54 percent approve while 41 percent disapprove. People who call themselves political “moderates,” however, reverse this pattern. Moderates give Obama a net positive rating: 54 percent approval to 35 percent disapproval. Moderates are net negative toward Walker, with 40 percent approval to 50 percent disapproval. Independents make up 39 percent of registered voters in the July poll, while moderates account for 33 percent. Independents lean about equally toward one party or the other, with 39 percent of independents leaning Democratic and 35 percent leaning Republican in the July polling data. Twenty-one percent of independents say they don’t lean toward either party. Liberals and conservatives divide as expected, with 80 percent of liberals approving of Obama and 77 percent of conservatives disapproving of Obama. For Walker, conservatives register a 76 percent approval rating while liberals give Walker an 80 percent disapproval rating. Regional differences highlighted Regional differences in views of the president and governor are substantial. Respondents in the city of Milwaukee give Obama a 71 percent approval rating, with the…