New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 54% think jury was correct in finding Trump guilty in New York state trial

39% say Trump should receive jail sentence, while 46% say probation, fine, or no penalty at all

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds 54% think that former President Donald Trump was guilty of the charges in his New York criminal trial, as the jury found on May 30, while 30% believe he was not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling. A sizable 16% say they don’t know.

In a May Marquette national poll, conducted during the trial but before its conclusion, a similar 54% said that Trump had done something illegal, while 27% said he had done something wrong but not illegal and 19% said he had done nothing wrong.

Also notable in the new poll:

  • 67% think that the New York prosecution of Trump will lead to Republican prosecutors charging Democratic politicians
  • Confidence in juries rises in aftermath of Trump trial
  • Trump favorability unchanged

Asked if Trump should have been prosecuted, 50% say prosecuting him was the right judgment call, 33% say he should not have been prosecuted, and 17% say they don’t know.

As for what penalty Trump should receive at his July 11 sentencing, 20% say no penalty at all, 14% say a fine, 12% say probation without jail, 39% say some time in jail, and 14% say they don’t know.

Just more than half think Trump’s conviction will definitely (16%) or probably (35%) be overturned on appeal. Twenty-one percent think the conviction will probably not be overturned, and 10% think it definitely will not be overturned. The other 18% say they don’t know.

The majority of respondents think that in the future, because of the Trump prosecution in New York, we are likely to see Republican prosecutors charge Democratic politicians with crimes. Almost a quarter, 24%, say there definitely will be such prosecutions, 43% say there probably will be, 16% say there probably won’t be, 3% say there definitely won’t be prosecutions, and 15% say they don’t know.

In the aftermath of the New York case, there has been a 7-point percentage increase in the confidence people say they have in juries in criminal cases. In the June poll, 42% said that they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in juries, 42% have some confidence, and 17% have little or no confidence in juries. In the preceding Marquette Law School national poll in May, conducted before the end of the Trump trial, 35% had a great deal or a lot of confidence in juries, 41% had some confidence, and 24% had little or no confidence.

Despite the majority saying Trump was guilty, his favorability rating hardly changed from May to June, with 41% favorable in both May and June and 57% unfavorable in May and 56% unfavorable in June. The survey was conducted June 21-24, 2024, interviewing 1,005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel Omnibus, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.