Support for other candidates could make a difference in overall results; outcome of Trump’s current trial could shift vote choices
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied with 50% each in a two-candidate matchup. In a five-way contest including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West, Trump receives 40%, Biden 37%, Kennedy 17% and Stein and West 3% each.
Among likely voters Trump receives 51% and Biden 49% in the two-candidate choice. In the five-candidate race Trump has 44%, Biden 41%, Kennedy 11%, and Stein and West 2% each, among likely voters.
In a March 2024 Marquette Law School Poll national survey, the two-candidate race was also tied at 50% while in the five-candidate measure Trump had 41%, Biden 38%, Kennedy 14%, Stein 2% and West 5%, among registered voters.
The survey was conducted May 6-15, 2024, interviewing 902 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 684, with a margin of error of +/-5.2 percentage points. Overall, the poll surveyed 1,033 adults and has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
Trump New York trial
Trump’s trial in New York on charges he falsified business records to cover up payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels was ongoing during the poll’s field period. Sixty-five percent of those polled said they had heard a lot about the trial, while 28% had heard a little and 7% had heard nothing at all.
While most interviews were conducted during the week of Daniels’ testimony and before that of Michael Cohen, 54% said they think Trump did something illegal, 27% said he did something wrong but not illegal, and 19% said he did nothing wrong.
Prospective jurors in the New York case were asked to complete a questionnaire, including an item asking: “Can you give us your assurance that you will decide this case solely on the evidence you see and hear in this courtroom and the law as the judge gives it?” We asked our national sample of registered voters that same question. Seventy-nine percent said they could decide solely on the evidence and the law, while 11% said they could not and 9% said they didn’t know. Republicans and Democrats were equally likely to say they could decide solely on the evidence, with 80% of each saying that.
To test the possible effect of the outcome of the trial, we asked half the sample:
If it turns out that Donald Trump is found guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?
And for the other half sample we asked:
If it turns out that Donald Trump is found not guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?
For those respondents presented with the guilty scenario, Biden had a 4-percentage point advantage over Trump, 43%-39% with 18% for someone else or not voting. For those presented with the not-guilty scenario, Trump had a 6-point advantage over Biden, 44%-38% with 18% for someone else or not voting.
Trends in vote choice
The trend in vote choice for the two-candidate race is shown in Table 1 since May 2023. The margin has been small in most polls over this time with a tie in the last two polls.
Table 1: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, May 2023-May 2024
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Vote | |
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |
| 5/6-15/24 | 50 | 50 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 50 | 50 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 49 | 51 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 48 | 52 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 48 | 51 |
| 7/7-12/23 | 50 | 50 |
| 5/8-18/23 | 47 | 52 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden? | ||
Table 2 shows the Biden vs. Trump two-candidate results by party identification from February to May. Both candidates have drawn around 90% support among voters identifying with the candidate’s party, while independents have favored Biden in the last two surveys.
Table 2: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | |
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |
| 5/6-15/24 | ||
| Republican | 6 | 94 |
| Independent | 57 | 43 |
| Democrat | 90 | 10 |
| 3/18-28/24 | ||
| Republican | 12 | 88 |
| Independent | 53 | 46 |
| Democrat | 93 | 7 |
| 2/5-15/24 | ||
| Republican | 7 | 93 |
| Independent | 43 | 54 |
| Democrat | 91 | 9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, February 5-15, 2024, March 18-28, 2024, and May 6-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
Five-way race
The trend in the five-way race is shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Five-candidate ballot choice, Feb.-May 2024
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Vote | ||||
| Biden | Trump | Kennedy | Stein | West | |
| 5/6-15/24 | 37 | 40 | 17 | 3 | 3 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 38 | 41 | 14 | 2 | 5 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 39 | 42 | 15 | 2 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | |||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? | |||||
The five-way vote is shown by party in Table 4. The additional candidates draw partisan support away from both Trump and Biden. Kennedy takes 15% from Republicans and 16% from Democrats. Stein and West draw 4% and 5% respectively from Democrats but only 1% each from Republicans.
Table 4: Five-candidate ballot, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | ||||
| Biden | Trump | Kennedy | Stein | West | |
| 5/6-15/24 | |||||
| Republican | 3 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| Independent | 29 | 15 | 39 | 8 | 10 |
| Democrat | 71 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 5 |
| 3/18-28/24 | |||||
| Republican | 7 | 77 | 12 | 0 | 4 |
| Independent | 20 | 20 | 37 | 7 | 15 |
| Democrat | 76 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 3 |
| 2/5-15/24 | |||||
| Republican | 4 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| Independent | 18 | 34 | 29 | 4 | 13 |
| Democrat | 78 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 4 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | |||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? | |||||
Favorability
All the five candidates and Vice President Kamala Harris have net negative favorability ratings, as shown in Table 5, with more unfavorable than favorable ratings. The independent candidates, Kennedy and especially Stein and West, have high rates of “haven’t heard enough.” Harris has the highest net negative rating at -24, with Biden at -21 and Trump at -17.
Among registered voters
| Candidate | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| Kamala Harris | -24 | 35 | 59 | 6 |
| Joe Biden | -21 | 39 | 60 | 1 |
| Donald Trump | -17 | 41 | 58 | 1 |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | -14 | 31 | 45 | 24 |
| Jill Stein | -14 | 12 | 26 | 62 |
| Cornel West | -9 | 11 | 20 | 69 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
Biden’s favorability rating over time is shown in Table 6. His net favorability has fallen from -5 in November 2021 to -21 in the current survey.
Table 6: Biden favorability trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| 5/6-15/24 | -21 | 39 | 60 | 1 |
| 3/18-28/24 | -20 | 40 | 60 | 1 |
| 2/5-15/24 | -20 | 40 | 60 | 1 |
| 11/2-7/23 | -19 | 40 | 59 | 1 |
| 9/18-25/23 | -21 | 39 | 60 | 1 |
| 7/7-12/23 | -17 | 41 | 58 | 1 |
| 5/8-18/23 | -23 | 37 | 60 | 3 |
| 3/13-22/23 | -15 | 41 | 56 | 3 |
| 1/9-20/23 | -11 | 43 | 54 | 2 |
| 11/15-22/22 | -6 | 46 | 52 | 3 |
| 9/7-14/22 | -9 | 44 | 53 | 2 |
| 7/5-12/22 | -26 | 35 | 61 | 3 |
| 5/9-19/22 | -17 | 40 | 57 | 3 |
| 3/14-24/22 | -10 | 44 | 54 | 2 |
| 1/10-21/22 | -6 | 46 | 52 | 3 |
| 11/1-10/21 | -5 | 45 | 50 | 5 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
The favorability trend for Trump is shown in Table 7. His net favorability has improved from -34 in November 2021 to -17 in the current poll.
Table 7: Trump favorability trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| 5/6-15/24 | -17 | 41 | 58 | 1 |
| 3/18-28/24 | -13 | 43 | 56 | 1 |
| 2/5-15/24 | -9 | 45 | 54 | 1 |
| 11/2-7/23 | -15 | 42 | 57 | 2 |
| 9/18-25/23 | -15 | 42 | 57 | 1 |
| 7/7-12/23 | -28 | 35 | 63 | 2 |
| 5/8-18/23 | -21 | 38 | 59 | 2 |
| 3/13-22/23 | -29 | 34 | 63 | 2 |
| 1/9-20/23 | -26 | 36 | 62 | 2 |
| 11/15-22/22 | -36 | 31 | 67 | 1 |
| 9/7-14/22 | -30 | 34 | 64 | 2 |
| 7/5-12/22 | -27 | 35 | 62 | 3 |
| 5/9-19/22 | -23 | 37 | 60 | 2 |
| 3/14-24/22 | -22 | 38 | 60 | 2 |
| 1/10-21/22 | -37 | 31 | 68 | 1 |
| 11/1-10/21 | -34 | 32 | 66 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
Combining views of both candidates, 21% of those in the poll have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. The number of those unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. Trump is seen favorably and Biden unfavorably by 39% while 37% are favorable to Biden and unfavorable to Trump. Just 2% are favorable to both. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Favorability to Biden and Trump, November 2021-May 2024
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability to both | ||||
| Fav Biden, Fav Trump | Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | DK either | |
| 5/6-15/24 | 2 | 37 | 39 | 21 | 1 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 3 | 37 | 40 | 19 | 1 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 2 | 37 | 42 | 17 | 1 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 3 | 36 | 38 | 20 | 2 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 3 | 36 | 39 | 20 | 2 |
| 7/7-12/23 | 1 | 39 | 33 | 23 | 3 |
| 5/8-18/23 | 2 | 35 | 36 | 23 | 5 |
| 3/13-22/23 | 2 | 39 | 32 | 23 | 5 |
| 1/9-20/23 | 1 | 42 | 34 | 19 | 4 |
| 11/15-22/22 | 1 | 44 | 30 | 21 | 4 |
| 9/7-14/22 | 1 | 43 | 32 | 21 | 3 |
| 7/5-12/22 | 0 | 35 | 34 | 26 | 5 |
| 5/9-19/22 | 1 | 39 | 36 | 20 | 4 |
| 3/14-24/22 | 2 | 41 | 35 | 18 | 3 |
| 1/10-21/22 | 2 | 44 | 29 | 22 | 4 |
| 11/1-10/21 | 1 | 43 | 30 | 20 | 6 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | |||||
Those who are unfavorable to both have varied in their vote choices over recent polls, as shown in Table 9. In the current poll, among those unfavorable to both, 57% support Biden and 43% support Trump. In November 2023, Trump had the advantage with those unfavorable to both, 52% to Biden’s 48%, but Biden has held the advantage in each of the 2024 polls. (The sample size of those favorable to both Biden and Trump is too small for meaningful analysis and so is omitted from the table.)
Table 9: Biden vs. Trump vote, by favorability to both
Among registered voters
| Favorability to Biden and Trump | Vote | |
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |
| 5/6-15/24 | ||
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 97 | 3 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 1 | 99 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 57 | 43 |
| 3/18-28/24 | ||
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 100 | 0 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 0 | 100 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 59 | 41 |
| 2/5-15/24 | ||
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 98 | 2 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 0 | 100 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 63 | 36 |
| 11/2-7/23 | ||
| Fav Biden, Unfav Trump | 98 | 2 |
| Unfav Biden, Fav Trump | 1 | 99 |
| Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump | 48 | 52 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||
Presidential approval
Biden’s job approval in May was 40% with 60% disapproving, unchanged since March.
Asked if they approved or disapproved of how Trump handled his job when he was president, 46% approved and 54% disapproved. This is essentially unchanged since March, when 47% approved and 53% disapproved.
A strength of Biden has been his ability, despite his high disapproval rate, to win votes from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president: the poll shows him typically winning a small majority of this group of voters. In this survey, Biden wins 53% from those somewhat disapproving of his job performance, with Trump supported by 47% of that group. Biden’s advantage with those who somewhat disapprove is smaller in May than in other Marquette Law School Poll surveys. Table 10 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval of Biden’s job performance. In addition to his just-noted small lead among the somewhat disapproving group, Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approving, while Trump dominates the strongly disapproving voters.
Table 10: Biden vs Trump vote, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
| Biden job approval | Vote | |
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | |
| 5/6-15/24 | ||
| Strongly approve | 92 | 8 |
| Somewhat approve | 92 | 8 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 53 | 47 |
| Strongly disapprove | 9 | 91 |
| 3/18-28/24 | ||
| Strongly approve | 99 | 1 |
| Somewhat approve | 94 | 6 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 61 | 39 |
| Strongly disapprove | 8 | 92 |
| 2/5-15/24 | ||
| Strongly approve | 98 | 2 |
| Somewhat approve | 91 | 9 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 60 | 40 |
| Strongly disapprove | 4 | 95 |
| 11/2-7/23 | ||
| Strongly approve | 97 | 3 |
| Somewhat approve | 91 | 9 |
| Somewhat disapprove | 55 | 45 |
| Strongly disapprove | 6 | 94 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? | ||
Perceptions of Biden and Trump
Table 11 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on eight issues. The list is presented in declining order for Trump based on the current survey:
- Immigration and border security: Trump 52%, Biden 25%
- The economy: Trump 50%, Biden 29%
- Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza: Trump 42%, Biden 28%
- Foreign relations: Trump 43%, Biden 36%
- Medicare & Social Security: Biden 40%, Trump 35%
- Healthcare: Biden 41%, Trump 32%
- Abortion policy: Biden 43%, Trump 32%
- Ensuring fair and accurate elections: Biden 45%, Trump 31%
These views of the candidates have remained quite stable over the last three polls. (Ensuring fair elections appears in the May poll for the first time.)
The percentage who say neither candidate would be good, or they would both be about the same, ranges from 21% to 30%, an indication that even with two such well-known candidates, there remains considerable doubt over how successfully each would handle these issues.
Table 11: Who would handle issues better
Registered voters
| Who is better on issue | ||||
| Poll dates | Biden | Trump | Both about the same | Neither good |
| Immigration and border security | ||||
| 5/6-15/24 | 25 | 52 | 8 | 14 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 27 | 54 | 7 | 12 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 25 | 53 | 6 | 15 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 27 | 50 | 7 | 16 |
| The economy | ||||
| 5/6-15/24 | 29 | 50 | 10 | 11 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 32 | 51 | 9 | 9 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 32 | 52 | 7 | 10 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 30 | 51 | 7 | 11 |
| Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | ||||
| 5/6-15/24 | 28 | 42 | 9 | 21 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 32 | 42 | 9 | 17 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 28 | 43 | 11 | 18 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 31 | 42 | 11 | 16 |
| Foreign relations | ||||
| 5/6-15/24 | 36 | 43 | 10 | 11 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 39 | 41 | 8 | 12 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 37 | 44 | 7 | 12 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 38 | 44 | 7 | 11 |
| Medicare & Social Security | ||||
| 5/6-15/24 | 40 | 35 | 13 | 12 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 39 | 36 | 14 | 11 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 40 | 36 | 13 | 11 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 38 | 39 | 11 | 12 |
| Health care | ||||
| 5/6-15/24 | 41 | 32 | 15 | 13 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 40 | 34 | 13 | 13 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 42 | 34 | 13 | 11 |
| Abortion policy | ||||
| 5/6-15/24 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 14 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 42 | 33 | 10 | 15 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 42 | 34 | 11 | 12 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 41 | 34 | 10 | 14 |
| Ensuring fair and accurate elections | ||||
| 5/6-15/24 | 45 | 31 | 10 | 14 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues? | ||||
| Health care not asked in November | ||||
Asked which issues will be most important for their vote in November, respondents said the three most important issues were the economy (36%), immigration and border security (20%), and abortion policy (10%). The full set of responses is shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Most important issue, May 2024
Among registered voters
| Percent Most Important | |
| Issue | Percent |
| The economy | 36 |
| Immigration and border security | 20 |
| Abortion policy | 10 |
| Medicare & Social Security | 9 |
| Ensuring fair and accurate elections | 8 |
| Health care | 5 |
| Foreign relations | 3 |
| The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | 3 |
| Don’t know | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 | |
| Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? | |
Partisans differ sharply in which issues they think are most important, as shown in Table 13. Republicans give top priority to the economy and immigration, with all other issues rated much lower. Democrats also rate the economy as most important, followed by abortion policy, with Medicare & Social Security and ensuring fair elections also receiving double-digit ratings. Independents rate the economy first, with immigration a distant second.
Table 13: Most important issue, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Most important issue | Party Identification | ||
| Republican | Independent | Democrat | |
| The economy | 40 | 41 | 31 |
| Immigration and border security | 37 | 14 | 3 |
| Health care | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Foreign relations | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| Abortion policy | 5 | 6 | 15 |
| Medicare & Social Security | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| Ensuring fair and accurate elections | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| Don’t know | 5 | 14 | 10 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? | |||
Candidate characteristics
Table 14 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as too old to be president compared to those who see Trump as too old, with 79% saying this phrase describes Biden very or somewhat well and 54% saying the same of Trump. The other characteristics measured with the percentage who thought this described the candidate very well:
- “Shares your values”: Biden 45%, Trump 44%
- “Has behaved corruptly”: Trump 64%, Biden 44%
- “Strong record of accomplishment as president”: Trump 51%, Biden 41%
- “Has the right temperament to be president”: Biden 52%, Trump 37%.
Table 14: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
| Issue | How well phrase describes | |
| Very/somewhat well | Not too/not at all well | |
| Is too old to be president | ||
| Biden | 79 | 21 |
| Trump | 54 | 46 |
| Shares your values | ||
| Biden | 45 | 55 |
| Trump | 44 | 56 |
| Has behaved corruptly | ||
| Biden | 44 | 56 |
| Trump | 64 | 36 |
| Strong record of accomplishments as president | ||
| Biden | 41 | 59 |
| Trump | 51 | 49 |
| Has the right temperament to be president | ||
| Biden | 52 | 48 |
| Trump | 37 | 63 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)? | ||
Undocumented-immigrant policy
Support for deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally has been quite high in recent polls. In the March national Marquette Law School Poll, a question was worded as
“Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?”
In that March poll, 63% said they favored such deportations, while 37% were opposed.
In the May survey, we conducted a test of how framing of this issue might affect responses. A random half of respondents were asked the same question as in March, while the other half of respondents was asked:
“Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?”
This alternate framing produces substantially different responses. As in March, the prior wording finds 64% in favor of and 36% opposed to deportations. When the question includes such mention of long-term residents with jobs and no criminal record, the majority reverses, with 52% opposed to deportations and 48% in favor. These results are shown in Table 15.
Table 15: Deportation-policy wording experiment
Among registered voters
| Question wording | Favor or op/pose | |
| Favor | Oppose | |
| Deport, with no qualifications | 64 | 36 |
| Deport even if long resident, job, no criminal record | 48 | 52 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||
| Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries? | ||
| Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record? | ||
Attention to topics in the news
Of recent events in the news, respondents paid somewhat more attention to college campus protests against the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza than to Trump’s trial, with 73% hearing a lot about the protests, 21% hearing a little, and 6% hearing nothing at all.
Arguments were heard at the U.S. Supreme Court in Trump v. United States, concerning presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for acts as president. Forty-nine percent said they heard a lot about this, 41% heard a little, and 10% heard nothing.
After months of debate, the House of Representatives passed a foreign aid package that included aid to Ukraine and to Israel. Asked about these separately, 44% said they heard a lot about the passage of Ukraine aid, 42% heard a little, and 14% heard nothing. Asked about aid to Israel and humanitarian aid to Gaza, also part of the legislation, 39% heard a lot, 45% heard a little, and 15% heard nothing.
Respondents are more likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. The survey asks about the latest reports of the Consumer Price Index and of the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey. Table 16 shows attention paid to this news for inflation and for unemployment.
Table 16: How much heard about economic news
Registered voters
| How much heard or read | |||
| Issue | A lot | A little | Nothing at all |
| Inflation rate | 41 | 45 | 14 |
| Unemployment rate | 22 | 47 | 30 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? . . . News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.5% over the past 12 months (as of March) | |||
| Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? . . . News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.9% (as of April) | |||
The attention to news about campus protests against the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is related to views of how the protests should be handled. Among all registered voters, 39% say the protesters should be arrested, while 40% say colleges should allow the protests to continue and 21% say they don’t know.
Table 17 shows the relationship between attention to news concerning the protests and view of how the protests should be handled. Those who have paid the most attention to the protests are considerably more likely to favor arresting protesters than those who have paid little or no attention to news about the protest.
Table 17: How to handle protests, by news heard about protests
Among registered voters
| Amount heard | How to handle protest | ||
| Arrest protesters | Allow protests to continue | Don’t know | |
| A lot | 46 | 35 | 18 |
| A little | 20 | 52 | 28 |
| Nothing at all | 14 | 55 | 32 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? . . . College campus protests against the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza | |||
| Question: Should colleges have police arrest student protesters opposing the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza or should colleges allow the protests to continue as a matter of free speech? | |||
Economic perceptions
Views of the nation’s economy have declined slightly since February. Table 18 shows the trend over the past five polls, with a dip in positive views and rise in negative views in the March and May surveys compared to February.
Table 18: View of the national economy
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | View of the economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| 5/6-15/24 | 3 | 28 | 38 | 31 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 5 | 28 | 38 | 29 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 6 | 29 | 40 | 25 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 3 | 24 | 40 | 33 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 3 | 20 | 45 | 32 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
Asked about the economy in their state, respondents are a little more positive, though a majority say it is not so good or poor. The comparison is shown in Table 19.
Table 19: View of the national and state economy
Among registered voters
| View of the economy | ||||
| Question wording | Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor |
| National economy | 3 | 28 | 38 | 31 |
| State economy | 5 | 34 | 38 | 24 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the economy in your state these days? | ||||
Asked about their personal financial situation, 40% said they are living comfortably, 42% are just getting by, and 18% say they are struggling. This is a dip in the percent living comfortable from the March survey. The full trend since September 2023 is shown in Table 20.
Table 20: Personal finances trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Financial situation | ||
| Living comfortably | Just getting by | Struggling | |
| 5/6-15/24 | 40 | 42 | 18 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 46 | 38 | 16 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 42 | 41 | 17 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 39 | 43 | 19 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 37 | 45 | 17 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? | |||
International issues
Forty-seven percent say Biden has been working to negotiate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, while 25% say he has not and 28% say they don’t know. This is unchanged from March.
Those saying the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel rose slightly, to 42% from 37% in March, while those saying not enough aid is being given barely changed at 25%, up from 24%. The full trend on views of aid to Israel is shown in Table 21.
Table 21: Aid to Israel trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Amount of aid is | ||
| Too much support | Not enough support | About the right amount of support | |
| 5/6-15/24 | 42 | 25 | 33 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 37 | 24 | 39 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 41 | 21 | 38 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Israel, not enough support to Israel, or about the right amount of support to Israel? | |||
The trend in views of aid to Ukraine is shown in Table 22. There has been a general rise in the percent saying the U.S. is giving too much aid and a decline in the percent saying about the right amount of aid.
Table 22: Aid to Ukraine
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Amount of aid is | ||
| Too much support | Not enough support | About the right amount of support | |
| 5/6-15/24 | 41 | 26 | 33 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 36 | 32 | 32 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 37 | 27 | 37 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 38 | 22 | 40 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 38 | 21 | 41 |
| 7/7-12/23 | 35 | 20 | 45 |
| 5/8-18/23 | 35 | 22 | 43 |
| 3/13-22/23 | 34 | 24 | 42 |
| 1/9-20/23 | 29 | 22 | 49 |
| 11/15-22/22 | 31 | 24 | 45 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | |||
| Question: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine? | |||
Abortion
Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 70% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 30% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 23 shows the full trend on these preferences.
Table 23: Abortion policy preference trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Policy preference | |||
| Legal in all cases | Legal in most cases | Illegal in most cases | Illegal in all cases | |
| 5/6-15/24 | 34 | 36 | 24 | 6 |
| 3/18-28/24 | 31 | 39 | 24 | 6 |
| 2/5-15/24 | 30 | 40 | 24 | 6 |
| 11/2-7/23 | 28 | 38 | 25 | 9 |
| 9/18-25/23 | 33 | 36 | 25 | 6 |
| 7/7-12/23 | 29 | 36 | 29 | 6 |
| 5/8-18/23 | 32 | 36 | 26 | 6 |
| 3/13-22/23 | 28 | 36 | 29 | 6 |
| 1/9-20/23 | 26 | 38 | 29 | 7 |
| 11/15-22/22 | 31 | 37 | 24 | 8 |
| 9/7-14/22 | 32 | 35 | 27 | 6 |
| 7/5-12/22 | 29 | 35 | 28 | 8 |
| 5/9-19/22 | 29 | 37 | 25 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? | ||||
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted May 6-15, 2024, interviewing 902 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 684 with a margin of error of +/-5.2 percentage points. For all adults the sample size is 1,033 with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released on May 22, 2024. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at the Marquette Law School Poll website.