MILWAUKEE —A Marquette Law School Poll survey of adults nationwide finds that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump run equally well against Democratic President Joe Biden in hypothetical 2024 matchups, although Biden leads both Republicans.
In a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis is supported by 33%, while Biden is supported by 41%. A substantial 18% say they would support someone else, and 8% say they would not vote. In a Trump versus Biden rematch, Trump receives 33% to Biden’s 43%, with 16% preferring someone else and 6% saying they would not vote.
The survey was conducted Jan. 10-21, 2022, interviewing 1000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.
While the election is substantially into the future, these results show that while Trump remains popular among Republican voters, another GOP candidate performs at least as well against Biden. There are similar patterns of support for both Republicans by party identification, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. In both pairings against Biden, there are significant percentages of all partisan categories saying they prefer someone else, not in the pairing, or wouldn’t vote. This is especially pronounced among independents.
Table 1: DeSantis vs. Biden, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Ron DeSantis
Joe Biden
Someone else
Wouldn’t vote
Republican
81
4
11
3
Lean Republican
73
2
19
5
Independent
19
23
32
25
Lean Democrat
4
71
20
5
Democrat
1
82
13
4
Table 2: Trump vs. Biden, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Someone else
Wouldn’t vote
Republican
77
6
16
1
Lean Republican
75
4
19
2
Independent
28
26
23
22
Lean Democrat
4
74
19
3
Democrat
1
84
11
4
A majority of Republicans, 63%, would like to see Trump run for president in 2024, whereas 37% do not want him to run. Among independents who lean Republican, 51% would like Trump to run and 49% would prefer he not run. Very few Democrats wish him to run. Among all adults in the survey, 29% would like Trump to seek the presidency again, while 71% do not want him to attempt a return to office. The full results by party are in Table 3.
Table 3: Like to see Trump run in 2024, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Yes
No
Republican
63
37
Lean Republican
51
49
Independent
31
67
Lean Democrat
5
95
Democrat
3
97
Favorability to DeSantis, Trump and Pence
DeSantis is much less well known than Trump. For DeSantis, 44% of all respondents say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion, while 22% have a favorable view and 34% have an unfavorable opinion. For Trump, only 1% lack an opinion, whereas 32% hold a favorable view and 67% view him unfavorably.
Former Vice President Mike Pence is better known than DeSantis, with just 17% saying they don’t know enough about him, while 28% have a favorable view and 55% have an unfavorable view.
Favorability toward DeSantis, Trump, and Pence differs dramatically by party, as shown in Tables 4, 5, and 6.
Table 4: DeSantis favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Republican
52
11
38
Lean Republican
54
12
34
Independent
6
28
64
Lean Democrat
4
50
46
Democrat
4
56
40
Table 5: Trump favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Republican
74
25
1
Lean Republican
66
34
0
Independent
26
68
4
Lean Democrat
2
98
0
Democrat
4
95
1
Table 6: Pence favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Republican
59
31
10
Lean Republican
45
36
18
Independent
17
43
38
Lean Democrat
9
76
14
Democrat
12
77
12
Republicans remain doubtful of the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican combined, 27% are very or somewhat confident that the votes were accurately cast and counted, while 73% are not too confident or not at all confident in the accuracy of the election vote totals. The divide is sharply partisan, as shown in Table 7, with over 90% of Democrats and of Democratic leaning independents confident in the election and 60% of independents with no partisan leaning expressing confidence in the election result.
Table 7: Confidence in accuracy of the 2020 election, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Confident
Not confident
Republican
27
73
Lean Republican
29
71
Independent
60
39
Lean Democrat
95
5
Democrat
98
2
Favorability to Trump, Pence, and DeSantis varies among Republicans depending on their confidence in the election. Views of Trump are most strongly associated with election confidence as shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Trump favorability, by confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, Jan. 2022
Confident in 2020 election
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Confident
29
69
1
Not confident
88
11
1
Favorability toward Pence is not linked to election confidence, unlike Trump. Table 9 shows Pence favorability by confidence in the election among Republicans and those who lean Republican.
Table 9: Pence favorability, by confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, Jan. 2022
Confident in 2020 election
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Confident
54
33
13
Not confident
55
32
12
As with Trump but unlike the case with Pence, favorability to DeSantis is strongly associated with confidence in the election, although a high percentage of those Republicans and Republican leaners who are confident in the election say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion of DeSantis. Table 10 shows favorability for DeSantis by election confidence.
Table 10: DeSantis favorability, by confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, Jan. 2022
Biden’s job approval rating has declined since July. In January, 46% approved and 53% disapproved of how he is handling his job as president, down from 58% approval and 42% disapproval in July. The trend in Biden’s approval rating is shown in Table 11.
Table 11: Approve or disapprove of Biden’s handling of his job, July 2021-January 2022
Poll dates
Approve
Disapprove
7/16-26/21
58
42
9/7-16/21
48
52
11/1-10/21
49
51
1/10-21/22
46
53
Biden’s approval has fallen substantially among independents and Democrats, while it has fluctuated below 20% among Republicans. Approval among independents fell from July to September and has remained some 15 points below the July level. Among Democrats, approval declined from July to September, declined again in November, and is unchanged in January. Table 12 shows the trend in approval by party.
Table 12: Approve or disapprove of Biden’s handling of his job, by party identification, July-Nov. 2021
Party ID
Poll dates
Approve
Disapprove
Republican
7/16-26/21
16
84
Republican
9/7-16/21
9
90
Republican
11/1-10/21
17
82
Republican
1/10-21/22
9
91
Independent
7/16-26/21
57
43
Independent
9/7-16/21
43
57
Independent
11/1-10/21
43
57
Independent
1/10-21/22
42
57
Democrat
7/16-26/21
96
3
Democrat
9/7-16/21
89
11
Democrat
11/1-10/21
83
16
Democrat
1/10-21/22
83
17
Biden’s approval has also fallen steadily among Black respondents, from 88% in July to 57% in January. Among Hispanic respondents, over the past six months, approval has remained relatively steady in the mid-50s. His support dropped among white respondents from July to September, but has remained steady since, at about 40%. The full trends for each group are shown in Table 13.
Table 13: Approve or disapprove of Biden’s handling of his job, by race, July-Nov. 2021
Race
Poll dates
Approve
Disapprove
Black
7/16-26/21
88
10
Black
9/7-16/21
74
26
Black
11/1-10/21
68
32
Black
1/10-21/22
57
41
Hispanic
7/16-26/21
56
44
Hispanic
9/7-16/21
54
46
Hispanic
11/1-10/21
51
49
Hispanic
1/10-21/22
56
43
White
7/16-26/21
50
50
White
9/7-16/21
40
60
White
11/1-10/21
41
58
White
1/10-21/22
40
60
Favorability to Biden, Harris and Buttigieg
Biden’s favorability rating stands at 45% favorable and 51% unfavorable, with 4% saying they can’t give a rating. His favorability by party is shown in Table 14. While Biden is seen favorably by a higher percentage of Democrats than Trump is among Republicans, he struggles with independents, who as a group are quite unfavorable to him. He makes few inroads with Republicans, who have an overwhelmingly unfavorable view.
Table 14: Biden favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Republican
7
92
1
Lean Republican
6
87
4
Independent
25
65
9
Lean Democrat
71
23
6
Democrat
89
11
1
Vice President Kamala Harris is seen favorably by 37% of respondents and unfavorably by 49%, with 14% saying they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. Favorability to Harris by party identification is shown in Table 15. More respondents in each partisan category say they lack an opinion of Harris than say that of Biden.
Table 15: Harris favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Republican
4
90
5
Lean Republican
4
87
9
Independent
21
51
28
Lean Democrat
48
24
28
Democrat
79
13
8
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg ran unsuccessfully against Biden in the 2020 presidential primaries, as did Harris. Both are considered potential future candidates for the presidency. Buttigieg is less well known than Biden or Harris, with 45% of respondents saying they haven’t heard enough about him, while 28% have a favorable and 27% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Table 16 shows favorability to Buttigieg by party identification.
Table 16: Buttigieg favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Approval of how Congress is handling its job is at 28% in January, with disapproval at 71%. Table 17 shows the trend in congressional approval since July.
Table 17: Approve or disapprove of how Congress is handling its job, July 2021-Jan. 2022
Poll dates
Approve
Disapprove
7/16-26/21
33
66
9/7-16/21
30
70
11/1-10/21
27
72
1/10-21/22
28
71
Approval of Congress has declined among all partisan groups since July, as shown in Table 18.
Table 18: Approve or disapprove of how Congress is handling its job, by party identification, July 2021-Jan. 2022
As cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to coronavirus have ebbed and flowed since September, the percentage saying coronavirus is a serious problem in the respondent’s state also has ebbed and flowed.
Table 19: Is coronavirus a serious problem in the respondent’s state, Sept. 2021-Jan. 2022
Poll dates
Serious problem
Not serious problem
9/7-16/21
68
32
11/1-10/21
50
50
1/10-21/22
69
31
The percentage thinking coronavirus is a serious problem in their state varies by party identification, with smaller percentages of Republicans saying it is serious, compared to Democrats. However, the shifts in the percentage saying it is serious move roughly in parallel across partisan groups over time, as shown in Table 20.
Table 20: Whether coronavirus is a serious problem in the respondent’s state, by party identification, Sept. 2021-Jan. 2022
Party ID
Poll dates
Serious problem
Not serious problem
Republican
9/7-16/21
49
51
Republican
11/1-10/21
30
70
Republican
1/10-21/22
45
55
Lean Republican
9/7-16/21
42
58
Lean Republican
11/1-10/21
32
68
Lean Republican
1/10-21/22
43
57
Independent
9/7-16/21
70
30
Independent
11/1-10/21
54
45
Independent
1/10-21/22
64
36
Lean Democrat
9/7-16/21
77
23
Lean Democrat
11/1-10/21
52
48
Lean Democrat
1/10-21/22
85
15
Democrat
9/7-16/21
90
10
Democrat
11/1-10/21
70
30
Democrat
1/10-21/22
91
9
In this survey, 79% say they have received at least one vaccine dose, 69% say they are fully vaccinated, and 21% say they have not been vaccinated. As of the end of the survey field period, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that 87% of those 18 years old or older received at least one dose and 74% were fully vaccinated.
There are partisan differences in vaccination rates, shown in Table 21. Table 22 shows that vaccination status is also associated with how serious a problem the respondent thinks coronavirus is.
Table 21: Vaccination status, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Vaccinated
Not vaccinated
Republican
69
31
Lean Republican
64
36
Independent
66
33
Lean Democrat
90
10
Democrat
95
5
Table 22: Vaccination status, by opinion whether coronavirus is a serious problem in the respondent’s state and by party identification, Jan. 2022
Party ID
Opinion whether coronavirus isa serious problem
Vaccinated
Not vaccinated
Republican
Serious problem
87
13
Republican
Not serious problem
55
45
Lean Republican
Serious problem
77
23
Lean Republican
Not serious problem
54
46
Independent
Serious problem
79
21
Independent
Not serious problem
45
54
Lean Democrat
Serious problem
90
10
Lean Democrat
Not serious problem
89
9
Democrat
Serious problem
96
4
Democrat
Not serious problem
89
11
Reluctance to be vaccinated in the future remains high among the unvaccinated. Among those not yet vaccinated, 63% say they will definitely not get a shot and 25% say they probably won’t, with only 12% saying they definitely or probably will get vaccinated.
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted Jan. 10-21, 2022, interviewing 1000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.
