MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered by the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which had established a right to an abortion. There has been much speculation that this June decision, in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, would change the November outlook.

Yet a comparison of the Marquette Law School Poll’s May and July national survey data finds few elements of change in motivation to vote or in vote choice, despite a substantial drop in public approval of the Court’s handling of its job and a majority of the public opposed to the Court’s decision in Dobbs.

Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance fell to 38% in July, down from 44% in May and 54% in March. In July, 36% favored the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and 64% opposed that decision, among those with an opinion. (Those particular and certain other data about public views of the Court from this July survey were released yesterday, July 20, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website; this release provides further results of the same survey on national topics.)

However, whether measured by enthusiasm about voting in November or the certainty of voting, there has been only a slight overall change in motivation among registered voters, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
5/9-19/22	43	32	19	6
7/5-12/22	45	26	22	7

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
5/9-19/22	63	18	16	2
7/5-12/22	65	16	12	7

The latest Marquette Law School Poll Supreme Court survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, shortly after the last decisions of the October 2021 Supreme Court term were released. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample includes 853 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.

The July results show that Republicans have slightly increased their advantage over Democrats in enthusiasm and projected turnout, compared to May, as shown in Table 2. In July, the percentage of Republicans very enthusiastic to vote rose 8 percentage points, while enthusiasm rose 3 percentage points among Democrats. Similarly, the percentage saying they are certain to vote in November rose 5 percentage points among Republicans but 2 percentage points among Democrats.

The enthusiasm gap between the parties is a substantial 18-percentage-point Republican advantage, while the certainty of voting shows a smaller 5-point Republican edge.

Table 2: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Party ID	Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Republican	5/9-19/22	55	31	12	1
Republican	7/5-12/22	63	25	10	2
Independent	5/9-19/22	34	28	26	12
Independent	7/5-12/22	33	23	33	11
Democrat	5/9-19/22	42	37	19	2
Democrat	7/5-12/22	45	31	17	7

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Party ID	Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
Republican	5/9-19/22	72	18	9	1
Republican	7/5-12/22	77	11	9	3
Independent	5/9-19/22	51	20	24	4
Independent	7/5-12/22	50	21	16	13
Democrat	5/9-19/22	70	15	14	1
Democrat	7/5-12/22	72	14	10	2

There is also little change in enthusiasm or certainty of voting based on whether the respondent favors or opposes the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, as shown in Table 3. Among either those in favor or those opposed to overturning Roe, there was no change between May and July in the percentage who are very enthusiastic about voting. There were a very small increase in certainty of voting for those in favor of overturning Roe and a slight decline in certainty to vote for those opposed to overturning Roe.

Leaving aside the change: By either measure, enthusiasm or certainty of voting, those who favor the decision to overturn Roe are more motivated to vote in the fall elections.

Table 3: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, by favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Overturn Roe	Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Favor overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	60	28	10	2
Favor overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	60	19	18	3
Oppose overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	40	32	22	5
Oppose overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	40	28	23	9

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Overturn Roe	Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
Favor overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	74	14	11	0
Favor overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	76	13	6	4
Oppose overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	66	20	11	2
Oppose overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	63	16	13	8

Those saying abortion is one of the most important issues increased by only 3 percentage points from May to July, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Importance of the abortion issue, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Poll dates	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
5/9-19/22	41	39	15	5
7/5-12/22	44	38	13	5

There were similarly small changes by partisanship, as shown in Table 5. Democrats are much more likely to rate abortion as one of the most important issues than are Republicans and independents, but there has been little change in opinion on importance of the issue since May.

Table 5: Importance of the abortion issue, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Republican	5/9-19/22	35	40	16	9
Republican	7/5-12/22	37	41	17	6
Independent	5/9-19/22	38	39	18	4
Independent	7/5-12/22	40	38	16	5
Democrat	5/9-19/22	50	39	9	2
Democrat	7/5-12/22	54	35	8	3

A bare majority, statistically rounded to 50%, say they would vote for a candidate who favors keeping abortion legal, while 33% would vote for a candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion and 17% say the abortion issue would not matter to them. Table 6 shows little change in vote choice based on the abortion issue from May to July.

Table 6: Vote based on candidate abortion position, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Poll dates	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
5/9-19/22	54	32	14
7/5-12/22	50	33	17

Table 7 shows that vote preference has remained divided but stable, among partisan groups, while independents have become somewhat less supportive of candidates who support abortion rights, from May to July.

Table 7: Vote based on candidate abortion position, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
Republican	5/9-19/22	20	61	19
Republican	7/5-12/22	18	62	21
Independent	5/9-19/22	59	26	15
Independent	7/5-12/22	44	35	21
Democrat	5/9-19/22	83	11	5
Democrat	7/5-12/22	84	8	8

Preferences on abortion policy

Asked their preference for policy on abortion, 28% say abortion should be legal in all cases, 36% say legal in most cases, 27% say it should be illegal in most cases, and 8% say illegal in all cases. Here and in subsequent tables, the results are for all adults, rather than for only registered voters as above in discussing motivation to vote and vote choice.

Those who say abortion should be legal in all cases or who say it should be illegal in all cases are the most likely to say it is one of the most important issues to them, while those saying legal in most or illegal in most cases are both half as likely (as the “all” groups) to say it is one of the most important issues. The relationship between policy preference and importance of the issue is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Importance of abortion issue, by policy preference on abortion, among adults, July 2022

Policy on abortion	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Legal in all cases	63	30	4	3
Legal in most cases	31	46	17	5
Illegal in most cases	30	44	18	7
Illegal in all cases	64	27	3	3

There has been little change in preference for abortion policy by party identification since Roe was overturned on June 24. Table 9 shows policy preference, by partisan groups, in May and July. A majority of Republicans say it should be illegal in all or most cases, while majorities of independents and Democrats say it should be legal in all or most cases, with an especially large majority among Democrats. Support for legal abortion declined by 10 percentage points among independents from May to July.

Table 9: Policy preference on abortion, by party identification, among adults, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
Republican	5/9-19/22	12	27	46	15
Republican	7/5-12/22	11	23	47	18
Independent	5/9-19/22	30	42	20	7
Independent	7/5-12/22	24	38	30	7
Democrat	5/9-19/22	45	42	9	4
Democrat	7/5-12/22	48	44	7	1

Policy preferences are sensitive to the specific limitations proposed on abortion. Several state legislatures have enacted or debated laws that would ban abortions (with some exceptions) at various stages of pregnancy. The survey asked a series of questions about support for or opposition to bans along the lines of these state proposals. Each question included an exception for “medical emergencies.”

The question asked:

Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?

The results for the five alternative policies presented are shown in Table 10. There is majority opposition to a ban at all times (“any time during pregnancy” in table) or a ban after 6 weeks, and an even divide on a ban after 15 weeks. A majority favor a ban after six months, and a majority oppose abortions being legal at all times (“No restrictions at any point” in table). None of the differences between May and July are statistically significant.

Table 10: Favor or oppose abortion bans, by when ban would take effect, among adults, May-July 2022

Ban when	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Ban at any time during pregnancy	5/9-19/22	27	72
Ban at any time during pregnancy	7/5-12/22	30	69
Ban after 6 weeks	5/9-19/22	34	65
Ban after 6 weeks	7/5-12/22	40	59
Ban after 15 weeks	5/9-19/22	50	49
Ban after 15 weeks	7/5-12/22	53	46
Ban after 6 months	5/9-19/22	65	35
Ban after 6 months	7/5-12/22	66	33
No restrictions at any point	5/9-19/22	39	60
No restrictions at any point	7/5-12/22	41	58

Some states have considered legislation that would make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion by traveling to a different state where abortion is legal. This policy is favored by 21% of respondents and is opposed by 78%. There has been little change on this, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Should states be able to make out-of-state travel for abortion illegal, responses among adults, May-July 2022

Poll dates	Yes	No
5/9-19/22	22	78
7/5-12/22	21	78

Majorities of all partisan groups say states should not be able to restrict out-of-state travel to obtain abortions. There has been little change in opinion on this issue among partisan groups from May to July, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Should states be able to make out-of-state travel for abortion illegal, by party identification, among adults, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Yes	No
Republican	5/9-19/22	34	66
Republican	7/5-12/22	31	69
Independent	5/9-19/22	18	81
Independent	7/5-12/22	20	80
Democrat	5/9-19/22	15	85
Democrat	7/5-12/22	16	84

The potential for states to make it illegal to get and fill prescriptions from out-of-state providers for medication that induces an abortion is favored by 26% and opposed by 73%. This question was not asked previously.

As with out-of-state travel for abortions, this possible legal restriction shows a sharp divide by party, as seen in Table 13, though a majority of each partisan group oppose such restrictions.

Table 13: Should a state be able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill a prescription from out-of-state providers for medication that will induce an abortion, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Yes	No
Republican	41	58
Independent	27	73
Democrat	13	87

January 6 Committee hearings

Among adults, 43% say they have heard a lot about the January 6 Committee hearings, 38% have heard a little, and 19% have heard nothing at all. For comparison, 81% have heard a lot about the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and 47% have heard a lot about the Court’s ruling that the Second Amendment includes the right to possess a firearm outside the home.

Table 14 shows that Democrats have been more attentive to the January 6 Committee hearings than have Republicans or independents, though a large majority of each group has heard at least “a little.”

Table 14: Heard about January 6 Committee hearings, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	35	48	17
Independent	37	38	25
Democrat	56	32	12

Fifty-two percent say that former President Donald Trump bears “a lot” of responsibility for the violence on January 6, while 18% say “a little” and 30% say he has no responsibility at all for the violence. Those who have heard a lot about the January 6 Committee hearings say Trump is more responsible than do those who have heard little or nothing about the hearings, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Trump responsibility for January 6 violence, by amount heard about the January 6 Committee hearings, among adults, July 2022

Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	A lot of responsibility	A little responsibility	None at all
A lot	68	9	22
A little or none	40	25	35

While partisans differ in their attention to the hearings, and in their views of Trump, those who have heard a lot about the hearings assign greater responsibility for violence to Trump than do those who have heard less, though the partisan gap remains very large, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Trump responsibility for January 6 violence, by amount heard about the January 6 Committee hearings and by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	A lot of responsibility	A little responsibility	None at all
Republican	A lot	17	26	57
Republican	A little or none	6	26	68
Independent	A lot	66	7	27
Independent	A little or none	39	32	30
Democrat	A lot	95	3	0
Democrat	A little or none	81	10	10

The public is evenly divided on the evidence presented by the January 6 Committee, with 52% saying it has been convincing and 48% saying it has not been convincing. Partisan differences are quite large in this case, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Has evidence presented in January 6 Committee hearings been convincing, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Has been convincing	Has not been convincing
Republican	15	85
Independent	49	50
Democrat	83	16

As with views of Trump’s responsibility, those who have heard a lot about the hearings are more likely to say the evidence is convincing, in every partisan group, though the partisan differences remain large, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Has evidence presented in January 6 Committee hearings been convincing, by party identification and by how much heard about hearings, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	Has been convincing	Has not been convincing
Republican	A lot	21	79
Republican	A little or none	12	88
Independent	A lot	65	35
Independent	A little or none	40	60
Democrat	A lot	95	4
Democrat	A little or none	68	32

There has been little net change in favorability ratings of Trump since the hearings began. In July, 34% had a favorable view of Trump, compared to 35% who were favorable in May. There is little difference in favorability among partisans based on how much they have heard of the hearings, though independents who have heard a lot are somewhat less favorable to Trump as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Favorable or unfavorable opinions of Donald Trump, by party identification and by how much heard about January 6 Committee hearings, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	A lot	80	20	1
Republican	A little or none	81	15	4
Independent	A lot	23	76	1
Independent	A little or none	31	60	9
Democrat	A lot	3	95	1
Democrat	A little or none	9	88	2

Thirty-four percent in July say they would like Trump to run again for president, little changed from 33% in May.

Biden job approval

Approval of how President Joe Biden is handling his job as president has declined in July to 36%, down from 42% in May. This is the lowest approval for Biden in the Marquette Law School Poll national surveys. The full trend of Biden approval is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Approval of Biden job performance, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64

Biden has seen approval ratings decline among Democrats and especially among independents, while Republicans have maintained high levels of disapproval.

Table 21: Approval of Biden job performance, by party identification, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	7/16-26/21	16	84
Republican	9/7-16/21	9	90
Republican	11/1-10/21	17	82
Republican	1/10-21/22	9	91
Republican	3/14-24/22	8	92
Republican	5/9-19/22	7	92
Republican	7/5-12/22	3	96
Independent	7/16-26/21	57	43
Independent	9/7-16/21	43	57
Independent	11/1-10/21	43	57
Independent	1/10-21/22	42	57
Independent	3/14-24/22	37	63
Independent	5/9-19/22	40	59
Independent	7/5-12/22	25	74
Democrat	7/16-26/21	96	3
Democrat	9/7-16/21	89	11
Democrat	11/1-10/21	83	16
Democrat	1/10-21/22	83	17
Democrat	3/14-24/22	86	13
Democrat	5/9-19/22	78	21
Democrat	7/5-12/22	75	25

Biden’s approval rating has also declined among white, Black, and Hispanic respondents, as shown in Table 22. The table demonstrates a steady decline among white and Black respondents since July 2021. Among Hispanic respondents, approval remained relatively stable until this survey, dropping sharply in July 2022, to 37%.

Table 22: Approval of Biden job performance, by race and Hispanic origin, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Race and Hispanic origin	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
White	7/16-26/21	50	50
White	9/7-16/21	40	60
White	11/1-10/21	41	58
White	1/10-21/22	40	60
White	3/14-24/22	40	60
White	5/9-19/22	34	65
White	7/5-12/22	31	68
Black	7/16-26/21	88	10
Black	9/7-16/21	74	26
Black	11/1-10/21	68	32
Black	1/10-21/22	57	41
Black	3/14-24/22	56	43
Black	5/9-19/22	59	41
Black	7/5-12/22	51	49
Hispanic	7/16-26/21	56	44
Hispanic	9/7-16/21	54	46
Hispanic	11/1-10/21	51	49
Hispanic	1/10-21/22	56	43
Hispanic	3/14-24/22	51	48
Hispanic	5/9-19/22	56	41
Hispanic	7/5-12/22	37	63

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, interviewing 1,003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds approval of the U.S. Supreme Court has fallen to 38%, while 61% disapprove of how the Court is handling its job. In May, 44% approved and 55% disapproved, and in March, 54% approved and 45% disapproved.

By contrast, approval of the Court stood at 66% in September 2020, with 33% disapproval then. As recently as July 2021, the Court had a 60% approval rating. Table 1 shows the trend in approval since September 2020. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Supreme Court job-approval trend, Sept. 2020-July 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
9/8-15/20	66	33
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/7-16/21	49	50
11/1-10/21	54	46
1/10-21/22	52	46
3/14-24/22	54	45
5/9-19/22	44	55
7/5-12/22	38	61

The latest Marquette Law Poll Supreme Court survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, shortly after the final decisions from the October 2021 Supreme Court term were released. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

The sharp decline in approval in July follows the Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, overruling the 1973 Roe v Wade decision, which announced a federal constitutional right to abortion in all 50 states. In March, prior to the leak of the draft opinion overturning Roe, 65% of those who favored striking down Roe approved of how the Court was handling its job, while 45% of those opposed to overturning Roe approved. Following the leaked opinion in May, approval rose sharply among those who favored overturning Roe, to 84%, and fell among those opposed, to 25%. In July, approval remained at 83% for those in favor of the Dobbs decision but fell even further among those opposed to striking down Roe, to 11%. Table 2 shows the full trend in approval of the Court’s job performance, by position on Roe.

Table 2: Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance, by favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade

Position on Roe	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Favor overturn Roe	3/14-24/22	65	34
Favor overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	84	16
Favor overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	83	17
Oppose overturn Roe	3/14-24/22	45	54
Oppose overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	25	74
Oppose overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	11	89

Approval of the Court is more sharply polarized along party lines than it was in March. In March, partisan differences were modest, with a majority of both Republicans (64%) and Democrats (52%) approving of the Court’s handling of its job. This changed after the leaked draft opinion in May, with approval among Republicans rising to 71% and approval among Democrats falling to 28%. This divide widened further after the Court ruling was handed down on June 24, with approval among Republicans remaining high at 67% and virtually collapsing among Democrats to 15%. Approval among independents also declined from March to May, but did not change further after the June decision. Table 3 shows approval by party identification in the March, May, and July surveys.

Table 3: Court approval, by party identification, March, May, and July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	3/14-24/22	64	36
Republican	5/9-19/22	71	29
Republican	7/5-12/22	67	32
Independent	3/14-24/22	51	48
Independent	5/9-19/22	38	61
Independent	7/5-12/22	39	60
Democrat	3/14-24/22	52	48
Democrat	5/9-19/22	28	70
Democrat	7/5-12/22	15	85

Self-described ideology is strongly associated with approval of the Court, which also increased in polarization from March to July, as shown in Table 4. Approval of the Court’s job performance increased among those who describe themselves as “very conservative” or “conservative,” while it decreased among those who consider themselves “moderate,” “liberal,” or “very liberal.” The difference in approval rate between the most conservative and most liberal respondents is now 75 percentage points, up from 36 percentage points in March.

Table 4: Court approval by ideology, March, May, and July 2022

Ideology	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Very conservative	3/14-24/22	65	35
Very conservative	5/9-19/22	75	25
Very conservative	7/5-12/22	79	19
Somewhat conservative	3/14-24/22	68	31
Somewhat conservative	5/9-19/22	72	27
Somewhat conservative	7/5-12/22	71	28
Moderate	3/14-24/22	58	40
Moderate	5/9-19/22	36	63
Moderate	7/5-12/22	29	71
Somewhat liberal	3/14-24/22	40	60
Somewhat liberal	5/9-19/22	28	72
Somewhat liberal	7/5-12/22	9	90
Very liberal	3/14-24/22	29	71
Very liberal	5/9-19/22	9	88
Very liberal	7/5-12/22	4	96

Support for and opposition to overturning Roe

Opinion on overturning Roe v. Wade has only slightly changed in the wake of the Court’s decision in June. Among those with an opinion on the issue, 36% favor the overturning of Roe, while 64% oppose striking it down. That is a 5-percentage-point increase among those who favor overturning Roe and a 5-percentage-point decrease among those opposed to striking down Roe, compared to opinion in May, when 31% were in favor of such a ruling and 69% were opposed. Table 5 shows the trend on this question since September 2019.

Table 5: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, trend among those with an opinion, 2019-2022

Poll dates	Favor overturn Roe	Oppose overturn Roe
9/3-13/19	32	68
9/8-15/20	37	63
9/7-16/21	28	72
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	28	72
3/14-24/22	32	68
5/9-19/22	31	69
7/5-12/22	36	64

Substantial partisan divides on Roe have changed little from March through July. Table 6 shows views on overturning Roe by party. Opinion among independents fluctuated modestly, while totals for Republicans and Democrats hardly changed across the three surveys.

Table 6: Opinion on overturning Roe, by party identification, March, May and July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor overturn Roe	Oppose overturn Roe
Republican	3/14-24/22	68	32
Republican	5/9-19/22	69	31
Republican	7/5-12/22	71	29
Independent	3/14-24/22	31	69
Independent	5/9-19/22	24	76
Independent	7/5-12/22	36	64
Democrat	3/14-24/22	8	92
Democrat	5/9-19/22	5	95
Democrat	7/5-12/22	9	91

A large majority, 81%, said they had read or heard a lot about the decision to overturn Roe, while 15% said they had read a little and 3% said they had read nothing at all.

In May, following the leaked draft opinion, 40% said they had heard a lot about that, 36% had heard a little, and 24% said they had read or heard nothing at all.

More than three-quarters of each partisan group say they have read or heard a lot about the decision overturning Roe. This is considerably larger in each partisan group than those who heard a lot about the leaked draft opinion in May, when half or less of each partisan group had heard a lot about the draft opinion. The amount read or heard about the leaked draft and the final decision by party is shown in Table 7.

Table 7: How much read or heard about the leaked draft opinion, by party identification, May and July 2022

(a) May, heard about leaked draft opinion on Roe

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	43	39	17
Independent	31	37	32
Democrat	51	32	17

(b) July, heard about Court ruling overturning Roe

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	81	17	0
Independent	76	18	5
Democrat	89	9	2

Perceptions of Court ideology

Over the past three years, perceptions of the Court in ideological terms have shifted substantially in the conservative direction. In this most recent poll, less than half as many see the Court as “moderate” compared to perceptions in September 2019, and almost seven times as many say it is “very conservative” as was the case in September 2019. Specifically, Table 8 shows the trend in perceived ideology of the Court: Over this time, the percentage saying the Court is “moderate” has fallen from 50% in September 2019 to 21% in July 2022, while the percentage saying the Court is “very conservative” has increased from 5% to 34%. While these shifts continued in July, the trend was well established prior to the Court’s decisions this summer.

Table 8: Perceived ideology of the Supreme Court, Sept. 2019-July 2022

Poll dates	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3

Second Amendment

The Court ruled in June, in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, that the Second Amendment protects the right to possess a gun outside the home. A majority of respondents, 56%, favor this ruling, while 44% oppose this expansion of gun rights, among those with an opinion. Compared to the May survey, this was a 10-percentage-point decrease in those favoring the ruling and a 10-point increase in those opposed. The trend in opinion of this issue, which had been quite stable since September 2021, is shown in Table 9.

 

Table 9: Favor Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home, among those with an opinion, Sept. 2021-July 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	63	37
11/1-10/21	65	35
1/10-21/22	67	33
3/14-24/22	63	37
5/9-19/22	66	34
7/5-12/22	56	44

Substantial majorities of both Republicans and independents favor this ruling, while a large majority of Democrats oppose it, as shown in Table 10. Democrats became substantially more opposed to this ruling in July, after the decision, while independent support remained a majority but declined by 10 percentage points. Republican support rose to a near-unanimous 95%.

Table 10: Favor ruling that there is a Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home by party identification, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	5/9-19/22	89	11
Republican	7/5-12/22	95	5
Independent	5/9-19/22	71	29
Independent	7/5-12/22	61	39
Democrat	5/9-19/22	31	69
Democrat	7/5-12/22	18	82

In this July poll, awareness of the decision in Bruen was substantially lower than awareness of the Dobbs decision, with 47% saying they had read or heard a lot about the Second Amendment ruling, 36% saying they read or heard a little, and 16% saying they heard nothing at all.

Partisan differences in awareness of the decision were modest, as shown in Table 11, with Democrats 11 percentage points more likely than Republicans to have heard a lot and independents only slightly less likely to have heard a lot than Republicans.

Table 11: How much have you read or heard about the Second Amendment decision, by party identification, July 2022

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	46	37	17
Independent	41	39	20
Democrat	57	32	11

Support for possession of a gun outside the home by gun ownership is shown in Table 12, with a large majority of gun households in favor of expanded Second Amendment rights, and a small majority of those without a gun in the home opposed.

Table 12: Favor Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home, by gun ownership, May 2022

Gun ownership	Favor	Oppose
Gun household	72	28
Not gun household	46	54

Public funding for attendance at religious schools

In the latest of a series of recent cases in which the Court has expanded ways that public funding for religious schools could increase, the Court ruled in Carson v. Makin that Maine cannot exclude tuition support to students attending religious schools that is otherwise available to students attending non-religious private schools. Unlike the decisions on abortion and gun rights, a majority of respondents say they have heard nothing about this case (36%) or have heard of it but do not know enough to give an opinion (23%). Of those who do have an opinion, 59% favor the decision and 41% oppose it. When asked about this possible decision in September 2021, 69% favored a ruling in favor of providing tuition for attendance at religious schools in the circumstances described and 31% were opposed, among those with an opinion.

While the salience of this decision is much less than for others, increased partisan polarization is also apparent. Table 13 shows how the partisan divide has increased from September 2021 to July 2022.

Table 13: Favor or oppose public tuition support for religious schools, by party identification, among those with an opinion, Sept. 2021 & July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	9/7-16/21	91	9
Republican	7/5-12/22	87	13
Independent	9/7-16/21	70	30
Independent	7/5-12/22	64	36
Democrat	9/7-16/21	44	56
Democrat	7/5-12/22	28	72

In July, support for this ruling is highest among born-again Protestants, followed by Roman Catholics and mainline Protestants. A bare majority of those with other religious affiliations favor this ruling, while those without a religious attachment are the only group with a majority opposed to the decision, as shown in Table 14. Compared to September 2021, the percentage favoring this decision rose among born-again Protestants, while declining among other religious groups.

 

Table 14: Favor or oppose public tuition support for students attending religious schools, by religion, among those with an opinion, July 2022

Religion	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Born-again Protestant	9/7-16/21	86	14
Born-again Protestant	7/5-12/22	92	8
Mainline Protestant	9/7-16/21	70	30
Mainline Protestant	7/5-12/22	61	39
Roman Catholic	9/7-16/21	84	16
Roman Catholic	7/5-12/22	79	21
No religion	9/7-16/21	47	53
No religion	7/5-12/22	32	68
Other religion	9/7-16/21	63	37
Other religion	7/5-12/22	51	49

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has decreased since 2019, although the public continues to express more confidence in it than in Congress or the presidency. Table 15 shows the trend in confidence in the three branches of the federal government since September 2019. The percentage saying they have little or no confidence in the Court has more than doubled since 2019, while confidence in the other institutions (lower to begin with) has fluctuated but not changed so substantially.

Table 15: Confidence in branches of the federal government, 2019-2022

(a) Supreme Court

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
9/3-13/19	37	42	20	1
9/8-15/20	39	45	16	0
7/5-12/22	28	28	44	0

(b) Congress

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
9/3-13/19	10	39	51	0
9/8-15/20	13	42	44	1
7/5-12/22	10	35	56	0

(c) The Presidency

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
9/3-13/19	28	25	47	0
9/8-15/20	31	23	45	0
7/5-12/22	21	31	48	0

As with approval of the Court’s job performance, confidence in the Court has become much more polarized by party. Confidence in the presidency has shifted by party sharply with partisan control of that office, while views of Congress have fluctuated but not trended as much. Table 16 shows the relationship of party and confidence for each institution.

Table 16: Confidence in branches of the federal government, by party identification, 2019-2022

(a) Supreme Court

Party ID	Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
Republican	9/3-13/19	53	32	14	2
Republican	9/8-15/20	50	42	8	0
Republican	7/5-12/22	51	30	19	0
Independent	9/3-13/19	28	47	24	0
Independent	9/8-15/20	34	46	19	0
Independent	7/5-12/22	28	29	43	0
Democrat	9/3-13/19	34	44	21	0
Democrat	9/8-15/20	36	45	19	0
Democrat	7/5-12/22	10	24	66	0

(b) Congress

Party ID	Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
Republican	9/3-13/19	9	37	54	0
Republican	9/8-15/20	17	40	43	0
Republican	7/5-12/22	11	36	52	0
Independent	9/3-13/19	7	34	59	0
Independent	9/8-15/20	6	39	53	2
Independent	7/5-12/22	7	29	63	1
Democrat	9/3-13/19	13	48	39	0
Democrat	9/8-15/20	16	46	38	0
Democrat	7/5-12/22	11	41	48	0

(c) The Presidency

Party ID	Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
Republican	9/3-13/19	69	20	12	0
Republican	9/8-15/20	70	21	8	0
Republican	7/5-12/22	14	19	67	0
Independent	9/3-13/19	19	33	47	0
Independent	9/8-15/20	21	29	50	0
Independent	7/5-12/22	16	29	55	0
Democrat	9/3-13/19	7	19	73	1
Democrat	9/8-15/20	9	20	71	0
Democrat	7/5-12/22	32	44	23	0

The percentage of those who say that the justices are making decisions based mainly on the law has declined from 64% in September 2019 to 48% in July 2022, while those saying that justices’ decisions are based mainly on politics has increased from 35% to 52% over the same time. The full trend is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: What most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions: mainly the law or mainly politics? 2019-2022

Poll dates	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
9/3-13/19	35	64
9/8-15/20	37	62
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/7-16/21	39	61
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	47	53
7/5-12/22	52	48

While views of the basis of the justices’ decisions have turned toward politics, people view the decisions of “the Court” as an institution as even more politically motivated. When asked, “In general, do you think that the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics or mainly motivated by the law?”—rather than “In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?” (with the options being “Mainly politics” and “Mainly the law”)—a higher percentage, by some 10 percentage points, say the Court is motivated by politics. This is shown in Table 18 (as compared with Table 17).

Table 18: Do you think that the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics or mainly motivated by the law?, 2022

Poll dates	Mainly politics	Mainly the law	Web blank
1/10-21/22	57	43	0
7/5-12/22	61	39	0

In striking down Roe v. Wade, the Court overturned a longstanding precedent. The extent to which precedent should be followed has been the subject of questions during confirmation hearings for Court nominees for some time, including specifically with respect to Roe. For the public, however, following precedent has been less important than overturning a ruling the majority of the Court believes to have been wrongly decided. In the wake of the overturning of Roe, the public now gives more weight than previously to precedent, but a still solid two-to-one majority thinks the Court should be free to strike down precedents. Table 19 shows this trend.

Table 19: Should justices of the Supreme Court follow previous decisions whenever possible or should the Court overturn previous decisions if a majority of the Court believes the case was wrongly decided?, 2020-2022

Poll dates	Follow previous decisions	Overturn if a majority think it was wrongly decided
9/8-15/20	18	81
9/7-16/21	26	74
7/5-12/22	33	66

While approval of the Court’s job performance and confidence in the Court have declined, as set forth earlier in this release, there has not been any change in support for expanding the size of the Court over the past year, and only a small increase since 2019. Opinion is evenly divided on increasing the number of justices, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Support for increasing the number of justices, 2019-2022

Poll dates	Expand Court	Do not expand
9/3-13/19	42	56
9/8-15/20	46	53
7/16-26/21	48	51
9/7-16/21	48	51
11/1-10/21	48	52
7/5-12/22	49	51

There has been a modest increase in support for the Court’s considering public opinion when making decisions: from a small majority in 2020 saying public opinion should be ignored to a similar small majority in 2022 saying the Court should consider public opinion, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Should Court consider public opinion when deciding cases, 2020-2022

Poll dates	Should consider public opinion	Should ignore public opinion
9/8-15/20	44	55
9/7-16/21	41	59
7/5-12/22	54	46

Opinion of same-sex marriage and LGBTQ discrimination decisions

A large majority (66%) of respondents favor the 2015 Supreme Court decision that ruled the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage, while 34% oppose that ruling.

An even larger majority (84%) favor the 2020 Supreme Court ruling that federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination, while 16% oppose that decision. Table 22 shows these opinions by party identification.

Table 22: Favor same-sex marriage and LGBTQ anti-discrimination rulings, by party identification, July 2022

a) Same-sex marriage decision

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	45	55
Independent	64	36
Democrat	84	16

(b) LGBTQ anti-discrimination decision

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	68	32
Independent	85	15
Democrat	93	7

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, interviewing 1,003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about recent Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms. (Prior to the decisions, these were asked as possible future decisions with descriptions identical to those here.)

Do you favor or oppose the following recent Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

Opinion of decision that anti-discrimination laws protect LGBTQ people:

In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?