MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice for president of 52% of registered voters and former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris receives 53% and Trump 47%. These results include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. In a May 6-15, 2024, Marquette Law School Poll national survey, Trump was the choice of 50% and President Joe Biden was the pick of 50% Among registered voters, while Trump took 51% of likely voters and Biden 49%. When the ballot question explicitly includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent candidate Cornel West, Harris receives 47% and Trump 41% Among registered voters. Kennedy is supported by 9%, Oliver receives 1%, Stein is the choice of 2%, and West wins 1%, among these voters. Among likely voters, Harris is supported by 50% and Trump 42%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, and West 0%. In a generic question about congressional races, 52% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 48% will vote for the Republican candidate. In May, 50% picked the Democrat and 50% picked the Republican. The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 683 with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points. Reaction to Biden’s withdrawal and to Harris A large majority of Democrats are satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 87% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee, 10% very or somewhat dissatisfied, and 3% who say they don’t know. The poll was completed before Harris secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates. A substantial majority of all registered voters, 80%, say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 13% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 87% say Biden should have withdrawn. Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 43% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 11% say they don’t know. A majority, 56%, say Biden should not resign and should serve out his term as president, while 31% say he should resign and 13% don’t know. When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 58% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 42% say Harris will definitely or probably win. The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than with Harris as the candidate. Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 69% say Trump would definitely or probably win, while 19% say Biden would win and 12% say they don’t know. Perceptions of the candidates Since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, Harris is seen favorably by 47% and…

Poll also finds Baldwin holding 7-point lead over Hovde in U.S. Senate race, third-party candidates for president fading, and overall opinions of Harris improving since pre-candidacy surveys MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds former President Donald Trump with 50% and Vice President Kamala Harris with 49% among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup in the race for president. Among likely voters, Harris is the choice of 50% and Trump the choice of 49%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. In June, before the debate between President Joe Biden and Trump and with Biden as the Democratic candidate, Biden and Trump each received 50% among Wisconsin registered voters, while Biden received 51% and Trump 49% among likely voters. In a multicandidate race, Harris, a Democrat, is the choice of 45% and Trump, a Republican, 43%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 8%, Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry <0.5%, and independent Cornel West <0.5%, among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Harris 46%, Trump 45%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry <0.5%, and West <0.5%. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 53% to Republican Eric Hovde’s 46% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 52% and Hovde receives 47%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. On the initial question, before that “if you had to choose” follow-up, Baldwin receives 47%, Hovde 39%, and 14% say they are undecided, among registered voters. When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, Baldwin receives 50%, Hovde receives 44%, Phil Anderson (the “Disrupt the Corruption” party candidate) receives 2% and Thomas Leager, of the “America First” party, receives 2%, among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 51% and Hovde 45%, with 2% each for Anderson and Leager. The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 877 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The poll included 801 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. (All results are stated as percentages.) While the race for president remains very close in Wisconsin, when asked who they think is likely to win in November, 51% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 39% say Harris will definitely or probably win and 11% say they don’t know. The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than the perceived chances with Harris as the candidate. Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 20% say Biden would definitely or probably win, while 69% say Trump would win. A substantial majority (79%) say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 15% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 91% say Biden should have withdrawn. Asked whom they would have…