Majorities support the Court’s decision that states cannot remove Trump from the ballot and oppose a possible Court ruling that would restrict abortion medication drug mifepristone

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 47% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 53% disapprove. This is the highest approval of the Court since January 2023, when it was also 47% with 53% disapproving. The last time approval was greater than 50% was March 2022, when it was 54%.

In the most recent previous survey, in February 2024, 40% approved and 60% disapproved.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: U.S. Supreme Court approval

Among adults

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
3/18-28/24	47	53
2/5-15/24	40	60
11/2-7/23	41	59
9/18-25/23	43	57
7/7-12/23	45	55
5/8-18/23	41	59
3/13-22/23	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
11/15-22/22	44	56
9/7-14/22	40	60
7/5-12/22	38	61
5/9-19/22	44	55
3/14-24/22	54	45
1/10-21/22	52	46
11/1-10/21	54	46
9/7-16/21	49	50
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/8-15/20	66	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest March 18-28, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

In the latest poll, approval rose by 10 percentage points among independents, by 7 points among Republicans, and by 4 points among Democrats. Approval by party is shown in Table 2. (Party identification here and subsequently includes independents who lean to a party as partisans.)

Table 2: Approval of the U.S. Supreme Court, by party identification, February and March 2024

Among adults

Poll dates	Court approval
	Approve	Disapprove
3/18-28/24
Republican	64	36
Independent	38	62
Democrat	31	69
2/5-15/24
Republican	57	43
Independent	28	72
Democrat	27	73
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Feb. 5-15, 2024, and March 18-28, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

The latest Marquette Law School Poll national Supreme Court survey was conducted March 18-28, 2024. The survey interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

Cases before the Court

On March 4, the Court ruled that states cannot remove or ban former President Donald Trump from the ballot based on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. The Court was unanimous in the judgment, though divided on the reasoning. A majority of respondents, 56%, favored the Court’s decision, while 39% opposed it and 5% did not know.

To test if unanimity influenced public reaction, a random half of the respondents were asked a question that included “ruled unanimously” and half asked a version that omitted “unanimously.” The wording was:

“On March 4, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled (unanimously) that states cannot bar Donald Trump from election ballots based on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?”

The version with “unanimously” had a slightly higher percentage favoring the Court’s decision (3% more), but also saw a higher level of those opposed (6% more), as the percentage saying “don’t know” was 0%, as opposed to 9% in the other version, as shown in Table 3. A majority favored the Court’s ruling, whether the word “unanimously” was included in the question or not.

Table 3: States cannot ban Trump from ballot, by “unanimously” mentioned or not

Among adults

	Favor or oppose decision
Unanimously mentioned or not	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Unanimously mentioned	58	42	0
Unanimously not mentioned	55	36	9
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: On March 4, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously that states cannot bar Donald Trump from election ballots based on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: On March 4, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states cannot bar Donald Trump from election ballots based on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Because the differences are small, we combine the two wordings for an overall measure of approval of this decision. A large majority of Republicans favored the decision, as did a bare majority of independents. Just more than two-thirds of Democrats opposed the decision, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: States cannot ban Trump from ballot, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Favor or oppose Court’s decision
	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Total	56	39	5
Republican	87	11	2
Independent	50	41	9
Democrat	26	69	6
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: On March 4, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled (unanimously) that states cannot bar Donald Trump from election ballots based on the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Combined percentage from questions mentioning ‘unanimously’ and not mentioning it.

On March 26, the Court heard oral arguments on a lower court decision which would restrict access to mifepristone, a drug used in medication abortions. Sixty percent of people in this survey preferred that the Court keep the current access to the drug by overturning the lower court ruling, while 25% preferred that the Court uphold the lower court ruling and 15% said they don’t know. Views on this issue differed by party, as shown in Table 5. Republicans were nearly evenly divided, while more independents and many more Democrats favored maintaining current access to the drug. Substantial percentages in each partisan group, especially independents, said they did not know.

Table 5: Restrict access to mifepristone, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Preference
	The Court should rule to keep the current access to the medication abortion drug, thus overturning the lower court decision	The Court should rule that the lower court was correct in its decision, thus restricting access to the medication abortion drug	Don’t know
Total	60	25	15
Republican	43	41	16
Independent	49	18	33
Democrat	81	9	10
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing a lower court decision that would significantly restrict (but not eliminate altogether) access to a drug used in medication abortions, mifepristone. Which comes closer to your view?
Response option: The Court should rule to keep the current access to the medication abortion drug, thus overturning the lower court decision
Response option: The Court should rule that the lower court was correct in its decision, thus restricting access to the medication abortion drug

The Court has set April 25 for oral arguments on whether former presidents enjoy immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during their tenure in office, a case arising from prosecutions of Trump involving the 2020 election and Jan. 6, 2021, events at the U.S. Capitol.

Our national survey asked about presidential immunity in a randomized experiment. Half of respondents were asked if “former presidents” should have immunity, and half were asked if “former President Donald Trump” should have immunity. Of those asked about “former presidents,” 20% said former presidents should have immunity, while 62% said they should not. Of those asked about “former President Donald Trump,” 28% said he should have immunity, while 56% said he should not. Eighteen percent of those asked the “former presidents” question said they “don’t know,” as did 17% of those asked the “former President Donald Trump” question. Those are notably high rates of “don’t know” responses given the volume of news coverage of the former president’s court cases. These results are shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Presidential immunity, by question wording

Among adults

Question wording	Immunity opinion
	Should be immune from criminal prosecution for their official acts	Should not have immunity from criminal prosecution for their official acts	Don’t know
“Former presidents” wording	20	62	18
“Former President Donald Trump” wording	28	56	17
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while in office. Which comes closer to your view?
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former President Donald Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while president. Which comes closer to your view?

The difference in responses is largely due to Republicans who, on balance, oppose immunity for “former presidents” but shift to over half supporting immunity for Trump. The results by question wording and party identification are shown in Table 7. Republican support for immunity goes from 32% for “former presidents” to 55% for “former President Donald Trump,” while the number of those Republicans opposed to immunity moves from 49% for ”former presidents” to 27% for “former President Donald Trump.” The percent saying “don’t know” remains substantial in both wording half-samples, at nearly one-in-five. Shifts among independents and Democrats are quite small between the two question wordings, with support for immunity decreasing by 3 percentage points among independents and by 5 percentage points among Democrats when Trump is named.

Table 7: Presidential immunity, by question wording and party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Immunity opinion
	Should be immune from criminal prosecution for their official acts	Should not have immunity from criminal prosecution for their official acts	Don’t know
Former presidents wording
Republican	32	49	19
Independent	14	46	40
Democrat	9	81	10
Former President Donald Trump wording
Republican	55	27	18
Independent	11	44	45
Democrat	4	89	7
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while in office. Which comes closer to your view?
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former President Donald Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while president. Which comes closer to your view?

On Feb. 26, the Court heard arguments in two cases dealing with how much social media companies can control the content that users posting on the companies’ sites as well as the extent to which governments can regulate those decisions. We asked this question:

“The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning laws that regulate how large social media companies like Facebook and YouTube control content posted on their sites. Which comes closer to your view? 1. The Court should rule that the companies have a First Amendment right to make decisions about what content may be presented on their sites. 2. The Court should rule that the companies cannot decide what views users may express on the sites.”

A plurality, 46%, say social media companies have a right to make decisions regarding content on their sites, while 38% say they should not be able to restrict content and 16% say they don’t know.

Opinion on social media restrictions varies by political ideology, with conservatives more opposed to social media company control over content and liberals more in favor of such control by social media companies, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Social media restrictions, by political ideology

Among adults

	Preference
Political ideology	Companies can control content	Companies cannot control content	Don’t know
Total	46	38	16
Conservative	35	51	13
Moderate	49	36	16
Liberal	59	22	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning laws that regulate how large social media companies like Facebook and YouTube control content posted on their sites. Which comes closer to your view?
Response option: The Court should rule that the companies have a First Amendment right to make decisions about what content may be presented on their sites
Response option: The Court should rule that the companies cannot decide what views users may express on the sites

Those who are the heaviest users of the internet, saying they are “almost constantly” online, are more supportive of restrictions by social media companies and less likely to say they don’t know. Those who use the internet less often are less in favor of restrictions by social media companies but are much more likely to lack an opinion. Opposition to social media restrictions varies little by frequency of use of the internet, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Restrictions by social media companies, by internet use

Among adults

Internet use	Preference
	Companies can control content	Companies cannot control content	Don’t know
Total	46	38	16
Almost constantly	51	38	11
Several times a day	44	39	18
Once a day or less	37	35	28
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning laws that regulate how large social media companies like Facebook and YouTube control content posted on their sites. Which comes closer to your view?
Response option: The Court should rule that the companies have a First Amendment right to make decisions about what content may be presented on their sites
Response option: The Court should rule that the companies cannot decide what views users may express on the sites

On Nov. 7, the Court heard arguments as to whether a federal law that prohibits the possession of a firearm by persons subject to a domestic violence restraining order violates the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.

We asked:

“The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning the constitutionality of a federal law that prohibits people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from possessing firearms. Which comes closer to your view? 1. The Court should uphold the law prohibiting gun possession by those subject to restraining orders. 2. The Court should strike down the law as a violation of the Second Amendment right to bear arms.”

A substantial majority, 72%, say the Court should uphold the federal law, while 17% say the Court should strike down the law in favor of the right to bear arms and 11% say they don’t know.

On this issue, more than 60% of Republicans and independents say the Court should uphold the law, as do 83% of Democrats, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Law prohibiting firearm possession, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Preference
	Uphold law prohibiting firearm possession	Strike down law prohibiting firearm possession	Don’t know
Total	72	17	11
Republican	63	25	12
Independent	67	11	22
Democrat	83	9	8
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning the constitutionality of a federal law that prohibits people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from possessing firearms. Which comes closer to your view?
Response option: The Court should uphold the law prohibiting gun possession by those subject to restraining orders
Response option: The Court should strike down the law as a violation of the Second Amendment right to bear arms

Attention to news about the Court

Table 11 shows the trend in attention to news about the Court from September 2023 to March 2024. Few respondents had heard a lot about the Court in the past month in either September or November, but attention increased in 2024 as the Court heard arguments in some major cases. Still, in each survey, half or more said they have heard “just a little.”

Table 11: Attention to news about the Court

Among adults

Poll dates	How much heard or read
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
3/18-28/24	30	50	19
2/5-15/24	24	56	20
11/2-7/23	15	60	25
9/18-25/23	17	61	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: March 18-28, 2024
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?

Confidence in institutions

Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 12. Juries in criminal cases enjoy the highest confidence among the five institutions and the lowest percentage of those expressing little or no confidence. Each of the other institutions has more respondents expressing little or no confidence than a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. The U.S. Supreme Court has the second highest level of confidence, followed closely by the presidency and the U.S. Department of Justice, with small differences in those saying little or no confidence. Congress suffers the lowest confidence rating, with 13% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence and 51% saying they have little or no confidence in Congress.

Table 12: Confidence in institutions

Among adults

Institution	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Juries that decide criminal cases	39	44	17
U.S. Supreme Court	30	37	33
The Presidency	28	31	40
The U.S. Department of Justice	27	37	36
Congress	13	36	51
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Those expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence in the Court increased to 30% in March from 25% in February, while those saying they have little or no confidence decreased to 33% in March from 40% in February. While there has not been a great deal of variation in confidence, this is the first time high confidence has reached 30% since July 2023, and it is the smallest level of low confidence since March 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
3/18-28/24	30	37	33
2/5-15/24	25	35	40
11/2-7/23	28	36	36
9/18-25/23	28	37	35
7/7-12/23	31	32	37
5/8-18/23	25	36	39
3/13-22/23	28	40	32
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: March 18-28, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Those who say that the justices’ decisions are based mainly on politics dipped slightly in March to 50% from 54% in February. The percentage saying decisions are based mainly on the law rose to 50% in March from 46% the previous month. The full trend is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics?

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived motivation
	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
3/18-28/24	50	50
2/5-15/24	54	46
11/2-7/23	55	45
9/18-25/23	52	48
7/7-12/23	58	42
1/9-20/23	49	51
7/5-12/22	52	48
1/10-21/22	47	53
11/1-10/21	30	70
9/7-16/21	39	61
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/8-15/20	37	62
9/3-13/19	35	64
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: March 18-28, 2024
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?

Perceived ideological leaning of the Court

In March, 25% say they would describe the Supreme Court as “very conservative,” 32% would describe it as “somewhat conservative,” and 33% would call the Court “moderate,” while 8% see the Court as “somewhat liberal” and 3% believe it is “very liberal.”

Perceptions of the Court’s ideological leaning have shifted to the right since 2019, with far fewer seeing the Court as moderate, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Perceived ideological leaning of the Court, 2019-2024

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
3/18-28/24	25	32	33	8	3
2/5-15/24	21	34	33	7	5
11/2-7/23	21	35	32	7	5
9/18-25/23	20	37	32	7	3
7/7-12/23	27	35	28	7	3
5/8-18/23	24	33	30	10	3
3/13-22/23	23	35	34	6	2
1/9-20/23	22	37	31	8	2
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: March 18-28, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following… The U.S. Supreme Court

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted March 18-28, 2024, interviewing 1,000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample, with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Biden’s favorability more net negative, -20, than Trump’s, -9; two-thirds of respondents critical of Biden administration’s border policies; views of the economy have improved since September

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds former President Donald Trump is the choice of 51% of registered voters and President Joe Biden is the choice of 49%. Among likely voters, Trump receives 52% and Biden 48%.

These results include voters who initially said they would vote for someone else or would not vote but were then asked their preference if they had to choose one of the two candidates. In the initial question, 13% said “someone else” or that they would not vote. Trump received initial support from 45%, and Biden was the initial choice of 42%.

The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 706, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.

The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May 2023, when it began asking about a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential election, with the trend show in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, May 2023-Feb. 2024

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Vote
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden
2/5-15/24	51	49
11/2-7/23	52	48
9/18-25/23	51	48
7/7-12/23	50	50
5/8-18/23	52	47
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?

Table 2 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Trump receives a higher share of Republican votes than does Biden among Democrats, while independents favor Trump.

Table 2: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden
Total	51	49
Republican	93	7
Independent	54	43
Democrat	9	91
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Among likely voters, the trend is shown in Table 3. The likely-voter measure was not included prior to September.

Table 3: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, Sept. 2023-Feb. 2024

Among likely voters

Poll dates	Vote
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden
2/5-15/24	52	48
11/2-7/23	51	49
9/18-25/23	49	51
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?

Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, holds a larger lead over Biden than does Trump, with 58% of registered voters supporting her and 42% supporting Biden.

Haley holds Republican support against Biden as well as Trump does, while attracting a substantial cross-over vote from Democrats. Independents support Haley by a substantial margin, as shown in Table 4. Her strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic and independent voters than does Trump accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden than Trump’s.

Table 4: Vote for Biden or Haley, by party identification
Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote
	Nikki Haley	Joe Biden
Total	58	42
Republican	94	6
Independent	60	37
Democrat	21	79
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for Haley?

Five-way race

When the ballot question is expanded to include independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump receives 42% and Biden 39%. Kennedy is supported by 15%, West wins 3%, and Stein is the choice of 2%.

The five-way vote by party is shown in Table 5. The additional candidates draw partisan support away from both Trump and Biden. Trump holds 80% support from Republicans and Biden 78% support from Democrats. Kennedy wins slightly more of the vote from Republicans than he does from Democrats, while West and Stein draw more Democratic than Republican support. Independents are widely spread across the candidates, with the independent and third-party candidates doing much better than they do with partisans. Trump wins 34% of the vote of independents to Biden’s 18% when independent and third-party candidates are included.

Table 5: Five-candidate ballot, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	West	Stein	Refused
Total	39	42	15	3	2	0
Republican	4	80	15	0	1	0
Independent	18	34	29	13	4	3
Democrat	78	5	12	4	2	0
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein?

GOP primary and Democratic primary

Trump receives 73% to Haley’s 15% in a matchup among Republican registered voters. In the November national survey, Trump was the choice of 54% and Haley the choice of 12%.

The full trend of GOP primary polling since March 2023 is shown in Table 6. The decline of Ron DeSantis’ support over the primary season and Trump’s rise are notable. Haley has had rising support but has not become competitive with Trump at any point in the last 11 months of polling. Trump has seen a substantial rise in support as the primary process has developed.

Table 6: Support for Republican 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Candidate	Poll dates
	2/5-15/24	11/2-7/23	9/18-25/23	7/7-12/23	5/8-18/23	3/13-22/23
Donald Trump	73	54	56	46	46	40
Nikki Haley	15	12	6	6	4	5
Ron DeSantis	–	12	12	22	25	35
Vivek Ramaswamy	–	4	4	1	3	–
Tim Scott	–	2	2	4	1	0
Chris Christie	–	1	1	1	1	0
Doug Burgum	–	–	0	1	–	–
Asa Hutchinson	–	0	0	1	0	0
Mike Pence	–	–	4	7	2	5
Larry Elder	–	–	0	0	1	–
Will Hurd	–	–	0	0	–	–
Undecided/Other	12	16	15	12	16	12
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the Republican presidential primary were today, whom would you vote for?

In the Democratic primary, Biden is the choice of 66%, with 6% supporting Marianne Williamson (who suspended her campaign during the field period of this poll) and 2% for Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips. A quarter of Democrats (27%) said they were undecided.

Last year, Kennedy was considering entering the Democratic primaries, and so was included in the primary ballot in previous surveys. The full trend for the Democratic primary vote is shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Support for Democratic 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

Candidate	Poll dates
	2/5-15/24	9/18-25/23	7/7-12/23	5/8-18/23
Joe Biden	66	53	54	51
Marianne Williamson	6	3	6	6
Dean Phillips	2	–	–	–
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.	–	12	14	13
Undecided	27	31	27	30
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the Democratic presidential primary were today, whom would you vote for?

Favorability

Each of the candidates except Kennedy has a net negative favorability rating, as shown in Table 8. The independent candidates, Kennedy and West, have high rates of “haven’t heard enough,” as does Haley. Biden has the highest net negative favorability rating at -20, while Trump has a net -9 rating. The rating of Vice President Kamala Harris, who was included in this question, closely mirrors Biden’s.

Table 8: Favorability ratings

Among registered voters

Candidate	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Joe Biden	-20	40	60	1
Kamala Harris	-19	37	56	7
Nikki Haley	-13	34	47	19
Cornel West	-9	12	21	67
Donald Trump	-9	45	54	1
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.	8	40	32	28
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Biden’s favorability rating over time is shown in Table 9. Biden’s net favorability has fallen from -5 in November 2021 to -20 in the current survey.

Table 9: Biden favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
2/5-15/24	-20	40	60	1
11/2-7/23	-19	40	59	1
9/18-25/23	-21	39	60	1
7/7-12/23	-17	41	58	1
5/8-18/23	-23	37	60	3
3/13-22/23	-15	41	56	3
1/9-20/23	-11	43	54	2
11/15-22/22	-6	46	52	3
9/7-14/22	-9	44	53	2
7/5-12/22	-26	35	61	3
5/9-19/22	-17	40	57	3
3/14-24/22	-10	44	54	2
1/10-21/22	-6	46	52	3
11/1-10/21	-5	45	50	5
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

The favorability trend for Trump is shown in Table 10. Trump’s net favorability has improved from -34 in November 2021 to -9 in the current poll.

Table 10: Trump favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
2/5-15/24	-9	45	54	1
11/2-7/23	-15	42	57	2
9/18-25/23	-15	42	57	1
7/7-12/23	-28	35	63	2
5/8-18/23	-21	38	59	2
3/13-22/23	-29	34	63	2
1/9-20/23	-26	36	62	2
11/15-22/22	-36	31	67	1
9/7-14/22	-30	34	64	2
7/5-12/22	-27	35	62	3
5/9-19/22	-23	37	60	2
3/14-24/22	-22	38	60	2
1/10-21/22	-37	31	68	1
11/1-10/21	-34	32	66	2
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

For Biden and Trump, 17% of respondents are unfavorable to both candidates. The number of those unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 11. Biden had an advantage in favorability over Trump in most of the early polling, but Trump has held the advantage over the last three polls.

Table 11: Favorability to Biden and Trump, Nov. 2021-Feb. 2024

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability to both
	Fav Biden, Fav Trump	Fav Biden, Unfav Trump	Unfav Biden, Fav Trump	Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump	Don’t know
2/5-15/24	2	37	42	17	1
11/2-7/23	3	36	38	20	2
9/18-25/23	3	36	39	20	2
7/7-12/23	1	39	33	23	3
5/8-18/23	2	35	36	23	5
3/13-22/23	2	39	32	23	5
1/9-20/23	1	42	34	19	4
11/15-22/22	1	44	30	21	4
9/7-14/22	1	43	32	21	3
7/5-12/22	0	35	34	26	5
5/9-19/22	1	39	36	20	4
3/14-24/22	2	41	35	18	3
1/10-21/22	2	44	29	22	4
11/1-10/21	1	43	30	20	6
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

For a matter not shown in the table: Those favorable to Biden and unfavorable to Trump give Biden 98% of their votes in the current survey, while those favorable to Trump and unfavorable to Biden give Trump 100%. Those who are unfavorable to both have varied in their vote choices over recent polls. In the current poll, those unfavorable to both support Biden with 63% and Trump with 36%, while in November 2023 they supported Trump 52% to 48% for Biden, and in September it was 54% for Biden and 45% for Trump. (The sample size of those favorable to both Biden and Trump is too small for meaningful analysis.)

Vote by Biden approval

Biden’s job approval in February was 38% with 62% disapproving, down two points from November’s 40% approval and 60% disapproval.

A strength of Biden, despite his high disapproval, has been his ability to win votes from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president, typically splitting or winning a small majority of this group of voters. Table 12 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval. Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approval, while Trump dominates the strongly disapproving voters. Biden wins 60% for those somewhat disapproving of his job performance, against Trump’s 40%. In November, Biden took 55% to Trump’s 45% among the somewhat disapproving.

Table 12: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approval	Vote
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden
Total	51	49
Strongly approve	2	98
Somewhat approve	9	91
Somewhat disapprove	40	60
Strongly disapprove	95	4
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Perceptions of Biden and Trump

Table 13 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, the economy, and, to a lesser degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen as better on abortion policy, health care, and handling Medicare and Social Security.

The combined percentage who say that neither candidate would be good on an issue or that each would both be about the same ranges from 17% to 29%, an indication that, even with two such well-known candidates, there remains considerable uncertainty over how successfully each would handle these issues.

Table 13: Who would handle issues better

Registered voters

Issue	Who better on issue
	Biden	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good
Immigration and border security	25	53	6	15
Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	28	43	11	18
The economy	32	52	7	10
Foreign relations	37	44	7	12
Medicare & Social Security	40	36	13	11
Health care	42	34	13	11
Abortion policy	42	34	11	12
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues?

On the issue of illegal immigration and border control, 46% strongly agree with the statement, “The Biden administration’s border policies have created a crisis of uncontrolled illegal migration into the country,” and an additional 20% somewhat agree. Fifteen percent strongly disagree with the statement, and 19% somewhat disagree.

Thirty-nine percent strongly favor “deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries,” while 29% somewhat agree. Eleven percent strongly oppose deportations and 21% somewhat oppose deportations.

Table 14 shows how well various phrases, in the opinion of respondents, describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as too old to be president, compared to those who see Trump as too old. Fifty-five percent say the phrase describes Biden very well, and 25% say the same of Trump.

On “shares your values,” more say this describes Trump very well than say this of Biden, but more also say this describes Trump not at all well than say the same of Biden.

Corruption assertions have been leveled against both candidates, with 30% saying “has behaved corruptly” describes Biden very well and 47% saying the same for Trump.

On having a strong record of accomplishment as president, 17% say this describes Biden very well, while 35% say this describes Trump very well.

Table 14: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

Issue	How well phrase describes
	Very well	Somewhat well	Not too well	Not at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden	55	23	11	11
Trump	25	28	23	24
Shares your values
Biden	13	30	18	39
Trump	21	24	9	45
Has behaved corruptly
Biden	30	18	18	34
Trump	47	15	19	19
Has a strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden	17	24	21	38
Trump	35	16	15	34
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?

Small changes in public opinion after Special Counsel Hur’s report

Special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents was released on Feb. 8, during the field period of this survey.

Of those respondents interviewed before the report was released, 71% said they believed Biden had possessed classified documents at his home in Delaware. Of those interviewed after the report became public, 76% thought he had had classified documents. Comparing the full samples, in November, 71% believed Biden to have had classified documents and 74% believed this in February.

The report also raised public questions concerning Biden’s memory. For those interviewed before the report was released, 51% said “is too old to be president” describes Biden very well. For those interviewed after the report was released, 59% said it described him very well. Yet there was no overall increase from late last year, comparing the full samples: In November, 57% said “to old to be president” describes Biden very well and 55% said this in February.

Attention to topics in the news

Of recent events in the news, 56% said they had heard a lot about a jury ordering Trump to pay $83.3 million for defaming writer E. Jean Caroll, 29% had heard a little, and 15% had heard nothing at all.

Fifty-two percent had heard a lot about U.S. military strikes on Iranian-backed militia sites in Syria and Iraq, while 35% heard a little and 13% heard nothing at all.

After the start of the party primary season, 42% heard a lot about the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, 31% heard a little, and 27% heard nothing at all.

Respondents are more likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. The survey asks about the latest estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey—December for inflation and January for unemployment in this case. Table 15 shows that 40% report paying a lot of attention to news about inflation and 30% a lot of attention to news about unemployment. In November, 49% said they had heard a lot about inflation and 23% said they had heard a lot about unemployment.

Table 15: How much heard about economic news

Registered voters

	How much heard or read
Issue	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Inflation rate	40	44	16
Unemployment rate	30	48	23
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.4% over the past 12 months (as of December)
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.7% (as of January)

Economic perceptions

Views of the nation’s economy have improved somewhat since September, though more say it is “not so good” or “poor” than say it is “excellent” or “good.” Table 16 shows the trend over the past three polls.

Table 16: View of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll dates	View of the economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
2/5-15/24	6	29	40	25
11/2-7/23	3	24	40	33
9/18-25/23	3	20	45	32
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Republicans and independents are quite negative and Democrats somewhat more positive about the state of the economy. Table 17 shows opinion of the economy overall and by party identification.

Table 17: View of the national economy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	View of the economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
Total	6	29	40	25
Republican	2	12	46	41
Independent	3	19	48	30
Democrat	11	49	32	9
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Asked about their personal financial situation, in February 42% say they are living comfortably, 41% are just getting by, and 17% say they are struggling. That is little changed from November when 39% said they were living comfortably, 43% were just getting by, and 19% said they were struggling.

Partisanship also strongly affects views of the economy, regardless of respondents’ personal financial situations. Table 18 shows views of the economy by family financial situation and by party. Those with a better personal financial situation tend to see the economy as better than those with worse finances, but partisanship is strongly correlated with views of the economy in each category of personal finances.

Table 18: View of the economy by financial situation and by party identification

Among registered voters

Financial situaion	View of the economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
Living comfortably
Republican	4	20	53	22
Independent	6	35	56	3
Democrat	17	54	26	3
Just getting by
Republican	0	9	47	44
Independent	3	19	52	26
Democrat	4	44	43	9
Struggling
Republican	0	3	31	65
Independent	0	2	34	63
Democrat	2	41	18	38
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

International issues

Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, 45% say the U.S. should support Israel, 7% say the U.S. should support Hamas, and 48% say the U.S. should not take a position on the conflict. In November 52% said the U.S. should support Israel, 5% said support Hamas, and 43% said the U.S. should not take a position.

Views of whom to support differ by party, with Republicans most supportive of Israel and the majorities of Democrats and, especially, independents saying the U.S. should not take a position, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Support Israel or Hamas
	Support Israel	Support Hamas	Not take a position
Total	45	7	48
Republican	64	1	35
Independent	23	3	73
Democrat	31	13	56
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?

Table 20 shows opinion by party from the November survey. While there has been little change among Republicans and independents, Democrats have become substantially more likely to say the U.S. should not take a position and less likely to say the U.S. should support Israel. Democrats saying the U.S. should support Hamas increased from 8% in November to 13% in February.

Table 20: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position by party identification

Among registered voters, November 2023

Party ID	Support Israel or Hamas
	Support Israel	Support Hamas	Not take a position
Total	52	5	43
Republican	65	1	34
Independent	21	4	75
Democrat	47	8	45
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?

There are also sharp ideological differences, shown in Table 21, with conservatives much more in favor of supporting Israel, while a majority of somewhat liberal and very liberal registered voters say the U.S. should not take a position. One in five who consider themselves very liberal say the U.S. should support Hamas, as do 14% of those who are somewhat liberal.

Table 21: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by ideology

Among registered voters

	Support Israel or Hamas
Ideology ID	Support Israel	Support Hamas	Not take a position
Total	45	7	48
Very conservative	72	0	27
Somewhat conservative	63	1	36
Moderate	35	5	60
Somewhat liberal	34	14	52
Very liberal	18	21	61
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

Those in the youngest age group, 18-29, show the same levels of support for Israel and for Hamas, though 56% say the U.S. should not take a position. Support for Israel increases steadily with age, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas or not take a position by age

Among registered voters

Age	Support Israel or Hamas
	Support Israel	Support Hamas	Not take a position
Total	45	7	48
18-29	23	22	56
30-44	33	7	60
45-59	46	3	51
60+	65	1	34
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?

Abortion

Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 70% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 30% saying it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 23 shows the full trend on these preferences.

Table 23: Abortion policy preference trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Policy preference
	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
2/5-15/24	30	40	24	6
11/2-7/23	28	38	25	9
9/18-25/23	33	36	25	6
7/7-12/23	29	36	29	6
5/8-18/23	32	36	26	6
3/13-22/23	28	36	29	6
1/9-20/23	26	38	29	7
11/15-22/22	31	37	24	8
9/7-14/22	32	35	27	6
7/5-12/22	29	35	28	8
5/9-19/22	29	37	25	8
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 706 with a margin of error is +/-5 percentage points. For registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican, the sample size in 409 and the margin of error is +/-6.6 percentage points. For registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, the sample size in 382 and the margin of error is +/-6.8 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on Feb. 21. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.