MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Republican Gov. Scott Walker receiving the support of 47.5 percent of registered voters and Democratic challenger Mary Burke receiving 44.1 percent support. Another 5.5 percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, while fewer than 1 percent say they will vote for someone else.

Among likely voters, defined as those who say they are certain to vote in November’s election, Burke receives 48.6 percent and Walker 46.5 percent, with 2.5 percent undecided and 0.6 percent saying they will vote for someone else.

The results for both registered and likely voters are within the poll’s margin of error. The August poll interviewed 815 registered voters by landline and cell phone August 21-24. The margin of error for the full sample of registered voters is +/- 3.5 percentage points. For the sample of 609 likely voters, the margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

These results are similar to the two most recent Marquette Law School Polls, which also showed the candidates within the margin of error. In July, Walker had 45.8 percent support, with Burke at 44.8 percent, among registered voters, while Burke had 46.8 percent to Walker’s 46.3 percent among likely voters. In May, Walker was supported by 46.1 percent and Burke by 45.7 percent among registered voters; among likely voters, Walker received 47.9 percent to Burke’s 45.2 percent.

The Marquette Law School Poll reports both registered voters and the somewhat smaller subset of likely voters.

“As pollsters, we try to measure both opinions and the likelihood that voters will act on their opinions by voting,” said Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “Some registered voters may cast a ballot who today are not certain that they will; on the other hand, even among people registered who say they are absolutely certain to vote, we know that a portion of them won’t actually do so, for turnout on election day is invariably lower than the percentage who say they won’t miss the chance. Still, the differences in involvement and enthusiasm about voting are enormous between the likely voters, who say they are certain to vote, and those who admit there is at least some chance they will stay home from the polls. The difference in vote between likely voters and all registered voters is a measure of the roles turnout and enthusiasm play in the election and tells us which party, at the moment, is enjoying greater intensity.”

In the race for attorney general, the vast majority of registered voters have yet to form opinions of the candidates. Seventy-three percent say they haven’t heard enough about Democrat Susan Happ to form an opinion, and an additional 9 percent say they don’t know if their opinion of her is favorable or unfavorable. For Republican Brad Schimel, 76 percent say they haven’t heard enough and another 11 percent say they don’t know if their opinion is favorable or not. Happ is seen favorably by 12 percent and unfavorably by 7 percent. Schimel is seen favorably by 8 percent and unfavorably by 5 percent.

When asked if they would vote for “Susan Happ, the Democrat, or Brad Schimel, the Republican,” for attorney general, 40 percent of registered voters would support Happ and 33 percent would support Schimel, with 24 percent saying they are undecided or don’t know how they will vote. Among likely voters, Happ receives the support of 42 percent and Schimel is supported by 32 percent, with 23 percent undecided or saying they don’t know how they will vote.

Jobs and personal finances
Forty-eight percent of registered voters say the state is lagging behind other states in job creation, while 34 percent say Wisconsin is adding jobs at about the same rate and 8 percent say it is adding jobs faster than other states. In July, 43 percent said the state was lagging, 42 percent said the same rate as other states and 9 percent said it was creating jobs faster than other states.

When limited to one of two choices, 73 percent think that outsourcing, “meaning when American businesses move manufacturing to other parts of the world in order to save money,” reduces jobs and wages of American workers, while 20 percent think outsourcing is “necessary for American companies to remain competitive.”

Asked if “Wisconsin government can provide economic incentives that would persuade companies not to outsource work overseas,” 55 percent believe that such incentives can persuade companies not to outsource, while 38 percent say that “business pressures leave companies little choice” but to outsource.

When asked, “All things considered, who as governor do you think would be best at helping the state create jobs?,” 45 percent say Mary Burke and 45 percent say Scott Walker.

Twenty-four percent say the recession had a major effect on their finances and that they have not yet recovered, while 33 percent say they suffered a major impact but have mostly recovered. Forty-two percent say the recession did not have a major effect on their personal finances.

Direction of the state
Among registered voters, 54 percent say the state is headed in the right direction while 42 percent say the state is off on the wrong track. Forty-five percent say the state’s budget is in better shape than a few years ago, with 26 percent saying about the same shape and 22 percent say the budget is in worse shape now. And 51 percent say that, “thinking about all the changes in state government over the past four years,” the state is better off in the long run, while 43 percent say the state is worse off.

Registered voters split in their view of how Walker is handling his job as governor, with 47 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving. Five percent say they don’t have an opinion.

Policy
Sixty-three percent favor requiring photo identification to be shown in order to vote while 32 percent oppose that.

Opinion is more evenly split on Act 10, the legislation that largely eliminated collective bargaining for public sector workers. Forty-four percent would like to see collective bargaining returned to what it was before Act 10 was passed, while 46 percent would keep the law as it is now.

Fifty-eight percent believe Wisconsin should accept federal funds to expand the Medicaid, or Badgercare, program for those whose incomes are as high as 133 percent of the poverty line. Twenty-nine percent say the state should reject the Medicaid expansion.

Forty-nine percent say the governor should approve a proposed new casino in Kenosha, while 35 percent say the governor should reject that proposal. Support is strongest in the Milwaukee media market, which includes Kenosha, with 60 percent support and 24 percent opposition. In the city of Milwaukee, support stands at 60 percent with 29 percent opposition. In the Green Bay media market, 47 percent support that proposal, with 41 percent opposed. Opposition is strongest in the Madison market, with 43 percent opposed and 40 percent in favor. The rest of the state is evenly split, with 40 percent opposed and 40 percent in favor.

Campaign finance disclosure
More than three-quarters of voters think political ads should disclose the source of the money paying for those ads. Voters were asked if they thought groups airing political ads during elections should be required to list their top donors as part of the ad. Seventy-six percent said groups should have to list their top donors while 21 percent said they should not. When the question is phrased to focus on “out of state groups” instead of simply “groups” airing ads, support for including a list of donors rose to 83 percent while opposition declined to 14 percent. These items were asked of random half-samples of respondents and each had a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Trek Bicycle
Wisconsin-based Trek Bicycle, the company founded by Mary Burke’s father, is viewed favorably by 32 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 9 percent. A substantial 46 percent haven’t heard enough and an additional 11 percent lack an opinion of the company. While Democrats, Republicans and independents are about equally aware of the company, 16 percent of Republicans now hold an unfavorable view of Trek, compared to 8 percent of independents and 2 percent of Democrats. Twenty-three percent of Republicans have a positive view, as do 36 percent of independents and 39 percent of Democrats.

Issues
Voters have an unfavorable view of the Affordable Care Act, also called “Obamacare,” by a 53 percent to 36 percent favorable margin. When last asked in March 2014, 50 percent had an unfavorable view and 39 percent had a favorable view of the federal law.

A majority, 57 percent, support increasing the minimum wage, while 36 percent oppose an increase.

Fifty-nine percent say tax cuts do more for the wealthy, 22 percent say they do more for the middle class and 8 percent say tax cuts do more for the poor.

Common core
Despite recent debates about the “common core” standards for schools, 26 percent say they have heard nothing at all about them, and another 14 percent say they have only heard the name. In January, 36 percent had head nothing and 10 percent had heard only the name.

In August, 28 percent say they have heard quite a bit about common core, up from 20 percent in January, and 32 percent say they have heard “some,” compared to 34 percent in January.

Among those who have at least heard of the “common core,” 7 percent have a very favorable and 43 percent a favorable opinion, while 22 percent an unfavorable and 12 percent a very unfavorable opinion. In January, 5 percent were very favorable, 45 percent favorable, 26 percent unfavorable and 8 percent very unfavorable.

Among Republicans, 41 percent have a favorable or very favorable opinion while 41 percent have an unfavorable or very unfavorable view. Among independents, 47 percent come in at favorable or very favorable and 39 percent at unfavorable or very unfavorable. Democrats divide 65 percent favorable and 22 percent unfavorable.

Gender and the vote
Among registered voters, women support Burke over Walker by a 49-42 percent margin, while men favor Walker 54 to 39 percent. Among likely voters, women support Burke by 56 percent to 38 percent for Walker, while men favor Walker 57 percent to 40 percent for Burke.

In the attorney general’s race, among registered voters, women favor Happ by 44 percent to 26 percent for Schimel, with 27 percent undecided or saying they don’t know how they will vote; 40 percent of men favor Schimel and 34 percent favor Happ, with 21 percent saying they are undecided or don’t know. Among likely voters, 48 percent of women support Happ while 25 percent support Schimel, with 25 percent undecided or saying they don’t know how they would vote, while Schimel is supported by 40 percent of men to 36 percent for Happ, with 21 percent undecided or saying they don’t know.

Personal perceptions
Burke has become better known to voters since July, although 35 percent still say they haven’t heard enough about her or don’t know if they have a favorable or unfavorable view of her. In July, that number was 49 percent.

Burke receives ratings in August of 33 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable, compared to July’s 26 percent favorable and 24 percent unfavorable.

Only 4 percent of voters did not give a rating for Walker. He is seen favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 48 percent. In July, 45 percent had a favorable view and 47 percent unfavorable.

Voters were asked if the phrase “cares about people like you” describes Walker and Burke. Forty-five percent say that “cares about people like you” describes Walker, while 50 percent say that that does not describe him and 4 percent say that they do not know. For Burke, 43 percent say that the phrase describes her, while 35 percent say that it does not and 21 percent are not able to say if this describes her. Those results are little different from July, when 45 percent said “cares about you” described Walker and 49 percent said it did not, and 38 percent said it described Burke while 31 percent said it did not.

When asked if “able to get things done” describes Walker, 68 percent say it does, while 28 percent say it does not, with 3 percent unable to say. For Burke, 43 percent say “able to get things done” describes her, while 32 percent say it does not and 24 percent were unable to say. In the July results, Walker was seen as able to get things done by 66 percent, with 29 percent saying “no” for him, while Burke got responses of 36 percent “yes” to 28 percent “no.” In July, 4 percent did not know if this described Walker and 35 percent did not know if it described Burke.

Voter involvement
Seventy-five percent of respondents say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, up from 68 percent in the July poll. Excitement about the election remains unchanged, with 53 percent describing themselves as “very excited” about voting, compared to 54 percent in July.

Seventy-seven percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote this fall, while 68 percent of independents say this. When asked how enthusiastic they are about voting in November, 59 percent of Republicans, 60 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of independents say “very enthusiastic.”

Republicans make up 27 percent of registered voters in the August sample, Democrats 31 percent and independents 38 percent, while among the likely voter sample Republicans are 28 percent, Democrats 34 percent and independents 34 percent. The long-term average for 19,402 registered voters included in 23 Marquette Law School polls since the start of 2012 is 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat and 38 percent independent. For likely voters, the long-term average is 29 percent Republican, 32 percent Democrat and 36 percent independent.

In July, Republicans were 24 percent of registered voters and 25 percent of likely voters. Democrats were 30 percent of registered voters and 32 percent of likely voters. Independents were 41 percent of registered voters and 38 percent of likely voters.

Comparing likely and less-likely voters
Likely voters, those saying they are certain to vote in November, are quite different in their political involvement from voters who say they are less than certain to vote.

Among likely voters, 69 percent say they follow politics “most of the time,” while only 27 percent of less likely voters say the same. A full 66 percent of likely voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting, but only 14 percent of less likely voters say the same. Among likely voters, 26 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mary Burke, while among less likely voters 61 percent did not have an opinion. For Scott Walker, 3 percent of likely voters and 8 percent of less likely voters failed to have an opinion. Among likely voters, 20 percent lacked an opinion of the Tea Party but 46 percent of less likely voters did not know enough about the Tea Party to express an opinion.

Less likely voters are not consistently more liberal or conservative in their views of specific policy issues compared to likely voters. Less likely voters are a bit more unfavorable toward the federal health care law than are likely voters (57 percent to 52 percent), but a bit more in favor of the state’s accepting federal funding to expand Medicaid (61 percent to 57 percent). Less likely voters are more supportive of approving a casino in Kenosha (56 percent to 47 percent). And less likely voters are more supportive of raising the minimum wage (64 percent) than are likely voters (54 percent).

Less likely voters are much more inclined to say the state is headed in the right direction than are likely voters (64 percent to 50 percent), but show no difference in approval of Walker’s handing of his job as governor (47 percent approval for both groups). Less likely voters are more undecided about their choice for governor (14 percent vs. 2 percent among likely voters). But among the less likely, Walker is supported by 50 percent and Burke by 31 percent. Burke holds a 2.1 percentage point advantage among likely voters.

About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive independent statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. Beginning in 2012, the poll has provided highly accurate estimates of election outcomes, in addition to gauging public opinion on a variety of major policy questions.

This poll interviewed 815 registered Wisconsin voters, by both landline and cell phone, August 21-24, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the full sample. The sample included 609 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is +/- 4.1 percentage points. The entire questionnaire, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at http://law.marquette.edu/poll.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds that the Wisconsin governor’s race remains a dead heat, with Republican Gov. Scott Walker receiving the support of 46 percent of registered voters and Democratic challenger Mary Burke receiving 45 percent support. Eight percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they would support. Fewer than 1 percent say they will vote for someone else.

These results closely resemble the most recent Marquette Law School Poll, in May, which showed both candidates receiving the support of 46 percent of registered voters.

Among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain to vote in November’s election, Burke receives 47 percent and Walker 46 percent.

The results for both registered and likely voters are within the poll’s margin of error. The July poll interviewed 804 registered voters by landline and cell phone July 17-20. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. For the sample of 549 likely voters, the margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.

In May, Walker received 48 percent to Burke’s 45 percent among likely voters, which was also within the margin of error of that poll.

Partisans remain solidly behind their candidates, with 93 percent of Republicans supporting Walker and 3 percent backing Burke. Among Democrats, Burke receives 88 percent while Walker receives 9 percent. Independents are evenly divided, with 44 percent supporting Burke and 45 percent supporting Walker. Independents in May split 49 percent for Walker and 40 percent for Burke, while Republicans backed Walker 94-3 and Democrats went for Burke 87-8.

Demographic divisions

Women support Burke over Walker by a 48-41 percent margin, while men favor Walker 51 to 41 percent. That is virtually unchanged from May, when women favored Burke 49-41 and men supported Walker 52-42.

The youngest voters, age 18-29, favor Burke over Walker by 48 to 35 percent. Those age 30-44 split evenly, 46 to 46 percent, while Walker’s strongest support comes among those 45-59 where he leads 51 to 42 percent. Voters over 60 split evenly, 45 percent for Burke and 46 percent for Walker.

Married voters favor Walker by a 54 to 38 percent margin, while those never married favor Burke by 53 to 34 percent. Those who are widowed, divorced, or separated favor Burke 53 to 38.

The gender gap appears within groups by marital status as well. Married men favor Walker 60-34, while married women prefer Walker 49-42. Among never-married men, Burke holds a 48-40 advantage, while never-married women prefer Burke 60-23. Among those widowed, divorced, or separated, men prefer Burke 50-44 and women prefer Burke 55-34.

State’s direction and issues

Approval of Walker’s handing of his job as governor stands at 47 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. In May, approval was 49 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. In March, 47 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved.

Fifty-four percent of voters say that Wisconsin is headed in the right direction, compared to 41 percent who say that it is off on the wrong track. This is virtually unchanged from May’s 52 to 42 percentage point split and March’s 54-42 split.

Forty-five percent say the state’s budget is in better shape now than a few years ago, while 28 percent say it is in about the same shape and 22 percent say the budget is in worse shape. In January, 49 percent said the budget was in better shape, 26 percent said about the same, and 20 percent said it was in worse shape. In May, 48 percent said better, 22 percent said the same, and 25 percent said worse.

Nine percent of voters say Wisconsin is creating jobs faster than other states, 42 percent say the state is creating jobs at about the same rate as other states, and 43 percent say Wisconsin is lagging behind other states. In May, 13 percent said the state was creating jobs faster, 38 percent said about the same, and 43 percent said lagging behind.

Support for increasing the minimum wage claimed 56 percent, as against 39 percent opposition. When last asked in March, 63 percent supported increasing the minimum wage, while 33 percent opposed an increase.

Opinion on same-sex marriage is little changed in the wake of a June federal trial court ruling striking down a Wisconsin constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. Fifty-six percent of voters say they would vote to repeal the ban if they could, while 37 percent would keep it. When asked in March, before the court ruling, 59 percent said they would repeal the amendment while 36 percent would keep it in place.

Personal perceptions

Burke still remains unfamiliar to nearly half of Wisconsin voters, as 49 percent say they either haven’t heard enough about her or don’t know if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. In May, the number was 51 percent. At the launch of her candidacy in October 2013, 70 percent were unable to rate her.

Burke receives ratings of 26 percent favorable and 24 percent unfavorable in July, nearly the same as May’s 27 percent favorable and 22 percent unfavorable result.

Only 8 percent of voters did not give a rating for Walker. He is seen favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent. In May, 47 percent had a favorable view and 48 percent unfavorable.

Voters were asked if the phrase “cares about people like you” describes Walker and Burke. Forty-five percent say that “cares about people like you” describes Walker, while 49 percent say that that does not describe him and 5 percent say that they do not know. For Burke, 38 percent say that the phrase describes her while 31 percent say that it does not. Thirty percent are not able to say if this describes her. Those results are little different from May, when 44 percent said “cares about you” described Walker and 52 percent said it did not, and, for Burke, 39 percent said it described her while 29 percent said it did not.

When asked if “able to get things done” describes Walker, 66 percent say it does, while 29 percent say it does not, with 4 percent unable to say. For Burke, 36 percent say “able to get things done” describes her, while 28 percent say it does not and 35 percent were unable to say. The May results were also quite similar, with Walker seen as able to get things done by 68 percent, with 28 percent saying “no” for him, while Burke got responses of 36 percent “yes” to 26 percent “no.” In May, 4 percent did not know if this described Walker and 38 percent did not know if it described Burke.

John Doe investigation

In the wake of the release of court documents concerning an investigation by prosecutors into possible campaign finance law violations, known as a “John Doe” proceeding, 75 percent of voters say they have heard or read about the investigation while 24 percent say they have not. Of those who have heard, 54 percent say it is “just more politics” while 42 percent say it is “really something serious.” In October 2012, 76 percent had heard of a “John Doe” investigation at that time, with 46 percent saying it was “just more politics” and 45 percent saying it was “really something serious.”

Voter involvement

In the July poll, 68 percent of registered voters say they are absolutely certain to vote in November. In contrast, before the November 2012 election, 88 percent said they were similarly certain to vote. Midterm elections consistently show lower turnout than presidential years. In 2010, 2.1 million voters went to the polls, compared to 3 million in November 2012.

Seventy-two percent of Republicans and 75 percent of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote this fall, while 63 percent of independents say this. When asked how enthusiastic they are about voting in November, 60 percent of Republicans, 56 percent of Democrats, and 50 percent of independents say “very enthusiastic.”

The parties and campaigns have already begun to contact voters. One in three voters, 33 percent, say they have been contacted by phone, in person or by mail in the last month. Of those who have been contacted, 14 percent say they were contacted only by Democrats, 25 percent say only by Republicans and 53 percent say they were reached by both parties.

Republicans were most likely to be contacted by only the Republican party, 35 percent, or by both parties, 49 percent, with only 7 percent of Republicans saying only the Democrats contacted them. Democrats, in contrast, were about equally likely to be contacted by both parties, with 27 percent saying only the Democrats contacted them, 29 percent saying only the Republicans, and 42 percent saying both parties had been in contact.

Independents are much more likely to be contacted by both parties, with 64 percent reporting such contact, while 12 percent said only the Democrats had contacted them and 18 percent saying only the Republicans. Of those who have been contacted, regardless of party, 75 percent say they are certain to vote, while 65 percent of those who have not been contacted say they are certain to vote.

Party affiliations

In the July poll, people who identified themselves as Republicans made up 24 percent of the sample, people saying they are Democrats 30 percent and those labeling themselves independents 41 percent. In May, Republicans were 24 percent, Democrats 32 percent and independents 41 percent. In eight statewide Marquette Law School polls since January 2013, Republicans have averaged 26 percent, Democrats 30 percent and independents 40 percent. Partisanship was slightly higher for both parties in 2012, when, over Marquette Law School’s 14 polls, Republicans averaged 28 percent, Democrats 32 percent and independents 37 percent.

Among likely voters in the July poll, Republicans made up 25 percent, Democrats 32 percent and independents 38 percent. In May, likely voters were composed of 26 percent Republicans, 31 percent Democrats and 39 percent independents.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive independent statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. Beginning in 2012, the poll has provided highly accurate estimates of election outcomes, in addition to gauging public opinion on a variety of major policy questions.

This poll interviewed 804 registered Wisconsin voters, by both landline and cell phone, July 17-20, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the full sample. The sample included 549 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is +/- 4.3 percentage points.