New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton, Feingold leading; majorities have negative views of presidential candidates

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Hillary Clinton with 42 percent and Donald Trump with 35 percent support among Wisconsin registered voters in a presidential race matchup. Seventeen percent say they will vote for neither candidate. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, in March, Clinton had 47 percent support and Trump 37 percent. Among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in November, Clinton receives 46 percent to Trump’s 37 percent in the new poll, with 13 percent saying they will support neither candidate. While Clinton is the presumptive Democratic candidate, a head-to-head matchup between Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders and Trump finds Sanders leading 56 percent to 31 percent among registered voters and 57 percent to 33 percent among likely voters. In Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, among registered voters, Democratic candidate Russ Feingold is supported by 45 percent while Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson receives 41 percent. In March, Feingold had 47 percent and Johnson 42 percent. Among likely voters in November’s election, Feingold has the support of 51 percent while Johnson is supported by 42 percent. Two percent say they will support neither and 5 percent say they don’t know whom they will support. Differences between registered and likely voters reflect shifting enthusiasm among Republicans and Democrats. In this new poll, 78 percent of Republicans say they are certain they will vote in November, a drop of 9 percentage points from the 87 percent who said so in March. Meanwhile, Democratic intentions to vote have increased, rising in June to 84 percent certain to vote from 81 percent in March. These shifts in likely-voter intentions account for the stronger support for Democrats in both presidential and senate races among likely voters than among all registered voters. By contrast, in June 2012, 90 percent of Republicans said they were certain to vote in November, as did 80 percent of Democrats. “The likelihood of voting reflects both personal involvement in politics and current campaign events,” said Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “Studies have shown that this likelihood can fluctuate over the course of the campaign, only settling down as we move past Labor Day. However, the current data show the difficulty the Republican Party is currently facing with a sharp drop in enthusiasm for voting this November. After the national conventions in July, as both parties attempt to unify and rally their supporters, we will have a better idea how turnout will affect the election.” The poll was conducted June 9-12, 2016. The full sample includes 800 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 666 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. Party unity and divisions Each party faces divisions left over from the primary season. Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, supporters of Sanders remain reluctant to vote…

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Cruz, Sanders ahead in Wisconsin presidential primaries; Bradley leads state Supreme Court race

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Ted Cruz ahead in the Wisconsin Republican presidential primary race, supported by 40 percent of likely voters to 30 percent for Donald Trump and 21 percent for John Kasich, while 8 percent don’t know whom they will support. Among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton, with 6 percent undecided. In the election for Wisconsin Supreme Court, Rebecca Bradley is supported by 41 percent with JoAnne Kloppenburg at 36 percent and 18 percent undecided. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll released in February, Trump was supported by 30 percent of Republican primary voters, with Cruz at 19 percent and Kasich at 8 percent. Other candidates who have since dropped out had a total of 31 percent. In the Democratic race in February, Sanders received 44 percent and Clinton 43 percent. The Supreme Court election in February found 37 percent support for Bradley and 36 percent support for Kloppenburg among likely voters, with 30 percent each among all registered voters. Among likely voters in this new (March) poll, 54 percent say they will vote in the Republican primary while 46 percent choose the Democratic primary. Ninety-nine percent of Republicans say they will vote in the Republican primary with 1 percent choosing the Democratic contest. Among Democrats, 95 percent say they will vote in that party’s primary, with 5 percent crossing over to the GOP. Independents, including those leaning to either party, choose the Republican primary over the Democratic primary by 60 percent to 40 percent. The poll was conducted March 24-28, 2016. The full sample includes 1,405 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results for the Republican primary are based on 471 likely voters who say they are certain they will vote in the Republican primary in April. That sample has a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points. Results for the Democratic nomination are based on 405 likely voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, with a margin of error of +/- 6.3 percentage points. For the April 5 Wisconsin Supreme Court election there are 957 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. All results reported here are for likely voters except where registered voters are used for November elections. U.S. Senate Race In Wisconsin’s race for U.S. Senate, Russ Feingold is supported by 47 percent of registered voters, with Republican incumbent Ron Johnson receiving 42 percent. In February, Feingold was at 49 percent and Johnson was at 37 percent. Among those likely voters who say they are certain to vote in November’s election, Feingold receives 48 percent and Johnson 45 percent. Johnson is viewed favorably by 32 percent of registered voters, unfavorably by 31 percent and 36 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about him. In February Johnson’s ratings were 29 percent…