Marquette Law School Poll finds Baldwin, Obama gaining in Wisconsin

Baldwin pulls ahead in Senate race, Obama expands lead following conventions Milwaukee, Wis. – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Rep. Tammy Baldwin taking the lead over former Governor Tommy Thompson in the race for an open U.S. Senate seat, by a 50 percent to 41 percent margin among likely voters. In the August 16-19 Marquette poll, the lead was reversed, with Thompson ahead by a 50 percent to 41 percent margin. In the presidential race, President Barack Obama has seen a large post-convention bump, with voters preferring him to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 54 percent to 40 percent. In August Obama led 49 percent to 46 percent. “These are both very large moves in just four weeks,” said Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “National polls and a number of state polls have also found a significant post-convention bounce in favor of Democrats.” Much of the movement in the poll came among independents. In August independents preferred Thompson by 47 percent to 37 percent among likely Wisconsin voters. That reversed in September, with independents supporting Baldwin by 50 percent to 38 percent. Support among partisans changed only modestly for either candidate. Baldwin solidified her support among Democrats, winning 90 percent of their votes, up from 84 percent in August. Thompson maintained his support among Republicans with 93 percent of their votes, unchanged from 94 percent in August. The presidential race saw similar shifts among independents, with Obama increasing his lead of 45 percent to 43 percent in August to 53 percent to 38 percent in September. Partisans continued to support their party nominee by 92 percent among Republicans and 95 percent among Democrats, unchanged from 93 percent and 97 percent in August. Franklin cautioned, however, that there was also movement in the makeup of partisanship in the poll. In September Republicans made up 27 percent of the likely voter sample, down from an average of 30 percent across all eleven Marquette Law School polls conducted since January. Democrats made up 34 percent, up from an average of 32 percent. Independents were 37 percent of the September sample, the same as their average for the year. “Our September poll makeup is about two points more Democratic and three points less Republican than average, which is within the margin of error,” said Franklin. If the sample were adjusted to match the yearlong average partisan makeup, both margins would tighten, with Baldwin leading 48 to 43 percent and Obama leading 51 to 43 percent. The poll of both landline and cell phone users was conducted September 13-16. The November matchups, based on a sample of 601 likely voters, have a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Other results are based on 705 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Senate candidate images The favorability ratings of the Senate candidates also shifted between August and September. In August Thompson was viewed favorably by 42 percent of likely voters and unfavorably…

Marquette Law School Poll finds tighter presidential race after Ryan selection

Thompson has lead in U.S. Senate race following primary win Milwaukee, Wis. – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds the presidential race is tightening in Wisconsin following the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan as the Republican vice-presidential candidate. The poll, conducted August 16-19, finds that 49 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Democratic President Barack Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden, while 46 percent say they will vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate, and Ryan. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted August 2-5 before Ryan’s selection, Obama led 50 to 45 percent. “The two-point shift in Romney's direction is within the margin of error for the poll but suggests Ryan's addition to the ticket may have slightly increased Romney's chances in Wisconsin,” said Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll. In the U.S. Senate race between former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson and Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin, Thompson holds a 50 percent to 41 percent advantage following his victory in the GOP primary Aug. 14. In the early August poll, Thompson led 48 percent to 43 percent. The poll of both landline and cell phone users was conducted August 16-19. The November matchups, based on a sample of 576 likely voters, have a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Other results are based on 706 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Impact of the Paul Ryan selection Asked how they would rate Romney’s selection of Ryan, 31 percent said “excellent,” 27 percent “pretty good,” 16 percent “only fair,” and 19 percent said “poor.” Asked if the selection of Ryan made them more likely to vote for Romney, 29 percent said more likely while 16 percent said less likely and 53 percent said it would not have much effect. Fifty-seven percent of Republicans said Ryan's selection made them more likely to vote for Romney while only 2 percent of Democrats said so. Among independents who said they don't lean towards either party 23 percent said they were more likely now to support Romney while 17 percent said less likely and 54 percent said it made no difference. Ryan’s selection as vice-presidential candidate has raised public awareness of him. In the July 5-8 Marquette Law Poll, Ryan was rated favorably by 36 percent, unfavorably by 29 percent, and 35 percent were unable to rate him. Since his selection, both his favorable and unfavorable ratings have increased by five percentage points, to 41 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable, with 24 percent unable to rate him. Fifty-eight percent said Romney’s choice of Ryan reflects favorably on his ability to make important presidential decisions, while 31 percent said it reflected unfavorably. Ryan is seen as qualified to serve as president, if that should become necessary, by 55 percent, and as not qualified by 37 percent. Senate candidate images Following the Republican primary, Thompson is viewed favorably by 40 percent of registered voters and unfavorably…