MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 44% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 56% disapprove. In September, 40% approved and 60% disapproved. Approval declined sharply between July and September 2021, then fell further in May 2022 following the leaked draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, the decision in June overturning Roe v. Wade, which had permitted abortion nationwide. The trend in approval of the Court since 2020 is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Skipped/Ref
9/8-15/20	66	33	1
7/16-26/21	60	39	1
9/7-16/21	49	50	1
11/1-10/21	54	46	1
1/10-21/22	52	46	2
3/14-24/22	54	45	1
5/9-19/22	44	55	1
7/5-12/22	38	61	1
9/7-14/22	40	60	0
11/15-22/22	44	56	0

Approval of the Court is quite high among Republicans, among whom 70% approve and 30% disapprove. Among independents, however, 40% approve and 60% disapprove. Among Democrats, 28% approve and 72% disapprove.

The latest Marquette Law School Supreme Court Survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.

In the current term, the Court will hear cases on whether race may be considered in college admissions, whether religious beliefs and free speech rights entitle businesses to deny some services to LGTBQ customers, and how states can set the rules for federal elections, among other cases.

The Marquette survey finds that the public is skeptical of the use of race in college admissions, with 41% in favor of a decision that would find a legal ban on the use of race and 16% opposed. The case is not yet on the top of mind for most respondents, however, with 42% saying they haven’t heard anything about such a case or haven’t heard not enough to have an opinion.

Marquette polling since September 2021 has shown a consistent opposition among the public to the use of race in admissions, as shown in Table 2. Those saying they haven’t heard or haven’t heard enough increased over the summer, from 33% in March to 50% in September. Table 2 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 2 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 2: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	33	53	13
3/14-24/22	33	49	17
9/7-14/22	50	37	13
11/15-22/22	42	41	16

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	81	19
3/14-24/22	75	25
9/7-14/22	74	26
11/15-22/22	72	28

While large percentages say they haven’t heard enough about the college admissions case, more respondents within each race and ethnic group favor banning use of race as a factor in admissions than think consideration of race should continue to be permitted. Table 3 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 3 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 3: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By race of the respondent.

• (a)   Among all respondents

Race & ethnicity	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
White	38	45	16
Black	52	27	21
Hispanic	49	37	13
Other/Multiple	43	48	9

(b) Among those with an opinion

Race & ethnicity	Favor	Oppose
White	73	27
Black	56	44
Hispanic	74	26
Other/Multiple	84	16

The margins favoring an end to allowing race as a factor in admissions are larger among those who see racism as less of a problem in the country today than among those who see racism as a bigger problem. Yet even those who say racism is a very big problem more favor ending the consideration of race in admissions than continuing its use. Among those with an opinion on this case, majorities in each group also favor ending the consideration of race in admissions, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By view of how big a problem is racism.

• (b)   Among all respondents

How big a problem is racism	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
A very big problem	49	27	23
A moderately big problem	43	41	15
A small problem/not a problem at all	32	60	8

How big a problem is racism	Favor	Oppose
A very big problem	54	46
A moderately big problem	73	27
A small problem/not a problem at all	88	12

There are substantial partisan differences on this issue, but, within every partisan group, more favor ending the consideration of race than support its continued use, as shown in Table 5

Table 5: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party ID	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
Republican	37	54	9
Lean Republican	27	61	11
Independent	52	34	14
Lean Democrat	48	36	16
Democrat	46	29	25

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	86	14
Lean Republican	85	15
Independent	70	30
Lean Democrat	69	31
Democrat	53	47

Another case set for argument on Dec. 5, 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, poses the question whether the religious beliefs or free speech rights of business owners can justify refusing to provide some services to LGBTQ customers. Among those surveyed in this national Marquette poll, a plurality, 40%, oppose allowing a business to refuse services, while 25% favor a ruling that would permit a business to do this. As with college admissions, a substantial group, 35% in this instance, has not heard of this case or has not heard enough to have an opinion. The trend in opinion on this question is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
3/14-24/22	29	28	43
9/7-14/22	44	21	35
11/15-22/22	35	25	40

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Heard of and favor	Heard of and oppose
3/14-24/22	39	61
9/7-14/22	37	63
11/15-22/22	39	61

Those who favor the Court’s 2015 decision finding a constitutional right to same-sex marriage are strongly opposed to allowing businesses to refuse services, while those who oppose same-sex marriage favor allowing businesses to choose not to provide services, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By opinion of same-sex marriage ruling.

(a) Among all respondents

Opinion on same sex marriage ruling	Heard nothing/not heard enough	Favor	Oppose
Favor	35	15	50
Oppose	34	53	13

(b) Among those with an opinion

Favor/oppose same sex marriage ruling	Favor the possible decision	Oppose the possible decision
Favor	23	77
Oppose	80	20

Those who identify as born-again Protestants are strongly in favor of allowing businesses to deny services, but mainline Protestants, Roman Catholics, members of other religions, and those with no religion are opposed to allowing businesses to choose not to serve gay or lesbian customers, shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By religion.

(a) Among all respondents

Religion	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
Born-again Protestant	40	44	16
Mainline Protestant	34	25	41
Roman Catholic	39	22	39
No religion	28	17	55
Other religion	35	24	40

(b) Among those with an opinion

Religion	Favor the possible decision	Oppose the possible decision
Born-again Protestant	73	27
Mainline Protestant	38	62
Roman Catholic	35	65
No religion	23	77
Other religion	38	62

On Dec. 7, 2022, the Court will hear arguments in Moore v. Harper, addressing the “independent state legislature” theory, which holds that, under the Constitution, only the state legislature has the power to regulate congressional elections in a state, and that state courts cannot overturn or revise the legislature’s decisions.

Most respondents (70%) have not heard anything or have not heard enough to have an opinion about this case, while 7% favor a ruling that state legislatures have sole authority and 22% oppose holding state courts to be without authority to alter the legislatures’ decisions.

Among those who do have an opinion on this case, 25% favor the independent power of legislatures, while 75% are opposed to this view of legislative authority.

These results are shown in Table 9. This is the first time this question has been asked.

Table 9: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that under the Constitution, the state legislatures have the power to regulate federal elections and are not subject to review by state courts.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	70	7	22

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Favor the possible decision	Oppose the possible decision
11/15-22/22	25	75

The independent state legislature theory is not well known, as the fact of 70% saying they’ve not heard enough to have an opinion attests. Of those with an opinion, Republicans are closely divided, with 55% in favor of and 45% opposed to this view of legislative authority. Among independents with an opinion, 9% favor and 91% oppose ruling for expansive legislative authority, while among Democrats with an opinion 22% favor and 78% oppose such a ruling.

Prior decisions

In the current survey, 33% favor the June decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning the Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision, while 66% oppose that ruling.

Previous Marquette polls have also found a majority opposed to overturning Roe among those who had heard enough to have an opinion. This trend is shown in Table 10. The question wording in the November poll does not invite respondents to say if they haven’t heard enough, while previous polls included that invitation. Among those who had heard enough, the responses were quite similar to the results with the current wording.

 

Table 10: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade in past surveys. Among those with an opinion.

Poll dates	Heard of and favor the decision	Heard of and oppose the decision
9/7-16/21	28	72
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	28	72
3/14-24/22	32	68
5/9-19/22	31	69
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	33	67

A majority of the public favors the June 2022 ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, which established a right to possess a gun outside the home, with 64% in favor of that decision and 35% opposed.

Support for this ruling, among those with an opinion, was consistently high prior to the decision in June, as shown in Table 11. As with the abortion decision above, the question wording in the November poll does not invite respondents to say if they haven’t heard enough, while previous polls included that invitation.

Table 11: Favor or oppose ruling that Second Amendment protects right to possess a gun outside the home. Among those with an opinion.

Poll dates	Heard of and favor the decision	Heard of and oppose the decision
9/7-16/21	63	37
11/1-10/21	65	35
1/10-21/22	67	33
3/14-24/22	63	37
5/9-19/22	66	34
7/5-12/22	56	44
9/7-14/22	57	43

Looking back to earlier decisions, a substantial majority favor the Court’s 2015 ruling establishing a right to same-sex marriage, 72%, while 28% are opposed. This trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	69	31
7/5-12/22	66	34
9/7-14/22	71	29
11/15-22/22	72	28

The public also strongly favors the Court’s 2020 ruling the federal law protects LGBTQ workers from employment discrimination, with 83% in favor of that decision and 17% opposed. The trend on this is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	83	16
7/5-12/22	84	16
9/7-14/22	87	12
11/15-22/22	83	17

The public is evenly divided on the Court’s 2019 decision that federal courts have no role in adjudicating challenges to partisan gerrymandering. That ruling is favored by 52% and is opposed by 47%.

Perceptions of the ideology of the Court

The perceived ideology of the Court has moved in the conservative direction since 2019, with 61% in November 2022 saying the Court is very conservative or conservative, compared to 38% in September 2019. The percentage seeing the Court as moderate has decreased from 50% in 2019 to 32% in November 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: In general, would you describe each of the following as very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal or very liberal? The Supreme Court

Poll dates	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2

Knowledge of the Court

The public varies widely in awareness of the Court and of its decisions. One measure of this is knowledge of which party’s president appointed the majority of the Court. Table 15 shows how this awareness of the makeup of the Court has varied since 2019. Given the prominence of appointments and debates about the Court, it is notable that only a bit more than a third are certain that the majority of justices were appointed by Republicans. On the other hand, nearly three-quarters think that Republican appointees are probably or definitely the majority. The remaining quarter are incorrect as to the majority.

Table 15: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Poll dates	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
11/15-22/22	24	40	35

Partisans differ somewhat in their awareness of the Court’s majority, with Republicans more likely than Democrats or independents to think that Democratic appointees form the majority and less certain that their own party appointed the majority. In contrast, Democrats are the most likely to correctly identify the Court majority as Republican appointees.

Table 16: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents? By party identification

(a) In all surveys since 2019

Party ID	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Republican	30	47	22
Lean Republican	28	49	23
Independent	34	46	19
Lean Democrat	16	47	36
Democrat	20	40	39

(b) In November 2022 survey only

Party ID	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Republican	27	43	30
Lean Republican	26	43	31
Independent	35	43	20
Lean Democrat	18	43	39
Democrat	18	34	48

Knowledge of the party of the presidents appointing a majority is also related to knowledge of and ability to give a favorable or unfavorable rating for each justice. Table 17 shows the relationship.

Table 17: Number of justices known well enough for respondent to give favorability rating, by knowledge of the Court majority (pooling 2019-2022 surveys)

Know party of the presidents appointing a majority	Median	Mean	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Definitely/Probably Dem majority	1	2.4	42	15	10	7	6	6	4	4	2	5
Probably Rep majority	3	3.7	22	11	11	11	9	8	8	6	5	8
Definitely Rep majority	7	5.9	10	5	6	6	7	10	9	11	11	24

While there are partisan differences in knowledge of the Court majority (i.e., of the party of the presidents who appointed a majority), there are only small differences in knowledge of the justices, with the exception of independents who do not lean (to either party), a group that is also less involved in politics generally.

Table 18: Number of justices known well enough for respondent to give favorability rating, by party identification (pooling 2019-2022 surveys)

Party ID	Median	Mean	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Republican	4	4.0	23	11	9	8	8	10	7	7	6	11
Lean Republican	4	4.1	27	10	10	9	8	8	7	7	5	10
Independent	1	2.8	42	13	7	8	5	5	5	3	4	8
Lean Democrat	4	4.2	23	8	9	10	8	9	9	6	7	11
Democrat	4	4.5	17	11	10	9	9	8	8	9	7	13

Author of Dobbs

Few cases in recent decades have received the attention given to the Dobbs decision. One would not imagine that the general public is often aware of which justice authors individual opinions, but given the prominence of this decision, the question seemed worth asking.

Among all respondents, 25% correctly identified Justice Samuel Alito as the author of the opinion for the Court, with 25% incorrectly saying Justice Clarence Thomas was the author. Thomas wrote a concurring opinion. The full set of responses is shown in Table 19. Respondents were asked to “just give your best guess” if they weren’t sure. Note that if respondents simply guessed randomly, we would expect about 11% to pick each justice. Only Chief Justice John Roberts exceeds this “guessing rate,” and by only a single percentage point. The three dissenting justices are all chosen by 6% or less.

Table 19: Which justice wrote the Supreme Court’s opinion in the Dobbs case, this past June, overturning the 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade that had made abortion legal in all 50 states?

Response	Percent
Samuel Alito	25
Amy Coney Barrett	9
Stephen Breyer	6
Neil Gorsuch	5
Elena Kagan	2
Brett Kavanaugh	11
John Roberts	12
Sonia Sotomayor	5
Clarence Thomas	25

Here, knowledge of the Court majority appointment clearly plays a role in awareness of the author. Table 20 shows presumed author by this knowledge. Among those who erroneously believe the Court majority were appointed by Democratic presidents, or who think a majority were appointed by Republicans but aren’t sure, more think Thomas was the author than think Alito. But among those who are (correctly) sure there is a Republican-appointed majority, 43% say Alito, and 23% say Thomas. While this is not a majority, there is a clear progression of knowledge of the Dobbs authorship in line with general knowledge of the Court.

Table 20: Which justice wrote the Supreme Court’s opinion in the Dobbs case, this past June, overturning the 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade that had made abortion legal in all 50 states? By knowledge of which party’s presidents appointed a Court majority

Knowledge of majority	Samuel Alito	Amy Coney Barrett	Stephen Breyer	Neil Gorsuch	Elena Kagan	Brett Kavanaugh	John Roberts	Sonia Sotomayor	Clarence Thomas
Definitely/Probably Dem majority	13	14	8	4	2	12	15	13	19
Probably Rep majority	17	8	7	7	2	14	11	4	31
Definitely Rep majority	43	6	3	3	1	8	11	1	23

A large share of the public says it has “heard a lot” about the Court’s Dobbs decision, and this has remained at high levels since July, as shown in Table 21.

 

Table 21: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court decision on abortion.

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/5-12/22	81	15	3
9/7-14/22	84	13	3
11/15-22/22	76	20	3

In contrast with the abortion ruling, the amount of news that respondents have heard concerning the Second Amendment ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen has decreased substantially since July, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court decision on the right to possess a gun outside the home.

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/5-12/22	47	36	16
9/7-14/22	31	48	21
11/15-22/22	25	47	28

Much of the public says it has heard little or nothing about the pending cases concerning consideration of race in college admissions. Arguments were heard on Oct. 31.

Table 23: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions.

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
11/15-22/22	20	45	34

Awareness of issues before the Court, or recently decided cases, thus varies considerably depending on the topic. For further comparison, awareness of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is shown in Table 24 (a), and awareness of the Jan. 6th committee hearings is shown in Table 24 (b).

Table 24: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hearings of the House Select Committee on January 6th.

(a) Russian invasion of Ukraine

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
11/15-22/22	70	23	7

(b) January 6th committee hearings

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/5-12/22	43	38	19
9/7-14/22	52	31	18
11/15-22/22	43	37	19

The public has come to think that the Court should pay more attention to public opinion in reaching its decisions than was the case in September 2020, when 44% said the Court should consider public opinion and 55% said it should not. In the current survey, two years later, 61% say public opinion should be considered and 39% say it should not be considered. The trend is shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Should justices of the Supreme Court consider public opinion about a case when making decisions or should they ignore public opinion?

Poll dates	Should consider public opinion	Should ignore public opinion
9/8-15/20	44	55
9/7-16/21	41	59
7/5-12/22	54	46
9/7-14/22	61	39
11/15-22/22	61	39

Support for increasing the size of the Supreme Court has been narrowly divided for some time. In September, a slight majority favored adding justices, but in November, the slight majority favors keeping the current number of justices.

Table 26: How much do you favor or oppose a proposal to increase the number of justices on the U.S. Supreme Court?

Poll dates	Strongly favor	Somewhat favor	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose
9/3-13/19	8	35	39	17
9/8-15/20	10	36	39	14
7/16-26/21	12	36	28	23
9/7-16/21	16	32	20	31
11/1-10/21	15	33	23	29
7/5-12/22	17	32	22	29
9/7-14/22	18	33	20	29
11/15-22/22	13	34	25	28

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has declined since 2019, when 37% had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. That declined to 30% who have similar confidence in November 2022. Those with very little or no confidence increased from 20% in September 2019 to 33% in November 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 27.

 

Table 27: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The U.S. Supreme Court.

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/3-13/19	8	29	42	16	4
9/8-15/20	12	28	45	13	3
7/5-12/22	9	19	28	28	16
9/7-14/22	10	20	34	26	10
11/15-22/22	8	22	36	23	10

Respondents were also surveyed on confidence in the state supreme court where they live (or the highest court in the state). Results for confidence in their state’s highest court are not much different than for confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court, although more people pick the middle category of “some confidence.” Views of state courts have not changed much since 2019, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Your state Supreme Court or highest court in your state

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/3-13/19	5	27	46	17	5
9/8-15/20	8	27	47	14	4
9/7-14/22	8	27	45	15	6
11/15-22/22	9	27	40	17	7

The most common view of Congress is “some” confidence, at 43%. Few respondents express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress, a combined 17%. While this is a long-running finding, there has been a small decline in those with “very little” or no confidence at all, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Congress

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/3-13/19	2	8	39	38	13
9/8-15/20	3	10	42	35	10
7/5-12/22	3	7	35	40	16
9/7-14/22	4	12	37	35	12
11/15-22/22	3	14	43	29	11

Confidence in state legislatures is slightly better than for Congress. Twenty-eight percent say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in their legislature, compared to just 17% saying the same of Congress. Thirty percent say they have little or no confidence in their legislatures versus 40% who say the same of Congress. As with Congress, the most common response to legislatures is “some” confidence, at 42%, shown in Table 30.

 

Table 30: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Your state legislature

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
11/15-22/22	4	24	42	23	7

Confidence in the presidency is shown in Table 31. The percentage with no confidence has declined since 2020, with some increase in the “some confidence” category, and modest fluctuations in the other categories.

Table 31: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The Presidency

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/3-13/19	13	15	25	22	24
9/8-15/20	15	16	23	20	25
7/5-12/22	6	14	31	30	18
9/7-14/22	13	20	29	24	14
11/15-22/22	12	18	33	23	14

Views of two law enforcement institutions, the police and the FBI, are similar, but partisan differences are pronounced. Table 32 shows confidence in the police and Table 33 reflects confidence in the FBI, which is not as high as for the police.

Table 32: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The police

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/8-15/20	20	29	32	12	6
9/7-14/22	21	30	28	14	6
11/15-22/22	18	31	30	15	7

Table 33: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The FBI

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/7-14/22	19	25	30	16	10
11/15-22/22	13	27	34	17	11

Partisan views are distinct concerning the police and the FBI. Republicans are more positive to the police and less so to the FBI, while Democrats are more positive to the FBI and less positive to the police, as shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The police, the FBI by party identification

(a) The police, by party identification

Party ID	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
Republican	35	37	20	7	1
Independent	9	28	33	18	11
Democrat	14	28	36	16	6

(b) The FBI, by party identification

Party ID	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
Republican	9	19	30	25	16
Independent	9	23	37	18	12
Democrat	21	37	32	7	3

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey (more generally about political topics) are held for a separate release tomorrow (Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022).

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about cases before the Court in the October 2022 Term include:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of Dobbs decisions, striking down Roe v. Wade

Opinion of ruling that the Second Amendment protects the right to possess a gun outside the home

Opinion on ruling the federal courts have no role in adjudicating challenges to gerrymandering

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

Opinion of decision that anti-discrimination laws protect LGBTQ people:

In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds the races for both U.S. Senate and governor are tossups one week before election day.

Among likely voters in the election for U.S. Senate, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 50% and Mandela Barnes by 48%. In the Marquette Law Poll’s previous survey, Oct. 3-9, among likely voters Johnson received 52% and Barnes 46%.

Among registered voters in the current poll, 48% support Johnson and 45% support Barnes. “Likely voters” are those who say they are certain to vote or who say they have already voted. “Registered voters” include those already registered and those who say they will register by election day. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate.

The governor’s race remains a tossup: Among likely voters 48% support Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers, while 48% favor Republican Tim Michels. The independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, is chosen by 2%, while 1% don’t know. Beglinger ended her campaign on September 6 but will remain on the November ballot. In the Oct. 3-9 poll, among likely voters, Evers received 47%, Michels 46% and Beglinger 4%. In the new poll, among registered voters, 44% support Evers, 45% support Michels and 5% support Beglinger.

The survey was conducted Oct. 24-Nov. 1, 2022, interviewing 802 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The margin of error among 679 likely voters is +/-4.8 percentage points.

Table 1 shows the vote preference for governor since August among likely voters and among all registered voters. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Vote for Governor

(a) Likely voters

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	48	48	2	0	1	0
10/3-9/22	47	46	4	1	1	1
9/6-11/22	47	44	5	0	3	0
8/10-15/22	48	44	4	0	2	1

(b) Registered voters

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	44	45	5	0	3	3
10/3-9/22	46	41	7	1	3	1
9/6-11/22	44	43	8	1	4	0
8/10-15/22	45	43	7	0	3	2

Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates among likely voters and among registered voters since August.

Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate

(a) Likely voters

Poll dates	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	48	50	0	1	1
10/3-9/22	46	52	1	1	1
9/6-11/22	48	49	1	1	0
8/10-15/22	52	45	0	1	1

(b) Registered voters

Poll dates	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	45	48	2	1	3
10/3-9/22	47	47	4	2	1
9/6-11/22	47	48	3	3	0
8/10-15/22	51	44	1	3	1

Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in Table 3 among likely voters. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly unified behind their respective party’s candidates, with 95% of Democrats supporting Evers and 97% of Republicans supporting Michels. Forty-seven percent of independents back Evers, while 46% prefer Michels. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 5% from independent voters and 1% from Republicans and 1% from Democrats.

Table 3: Vote for Governor by party identification (among likely voters)

(a) Oct. 24-Nov. 1

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	2	97	1	0	0
Independent	47	46	5	1	0
Democrat	95	2	1	1	0

(b) Oct. 3-9

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	6	88	4	0	2	1
Independent	43	44	7	1	1	3
Democrat	96	2	1	0	0	0

(c) Sept. 6-11

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	3	92	2	0	3	1
Independent	45	39	11	0	5	0
Democrat	95	4	2	0	0	0

(d) Aug. 10-15

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	5	92	2	0	1	0
Independent	49	38	7	0	4	2
Democrat	94	2	3	0	0	1

Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4 among likely voters. Partisans are strongly aligned with their party’s candidates, with 98% of Democrats supporting Barnes and 97% of Republicans supporting Johnson. Forty-six percent of independents back Barnes, while 53% prefer Johnson. In early October 45% favored Barnes and 51% backed Johnson.

Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate by party identification (among likely voters)

(a) Oct. 24-Nov. 1

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	3	97	0	0	0
Independent	46	53	1	0	0
Democrat	98	0	0	2	0

(b) Oct. 3-9

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	3	96	0	0	1
Independent	45	51	3	1	1
Democrat	93	5	0	2	0

(c) Sept. 6-11

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	2	97	1	0	0
Independent	46	48	2	3	0
Democrat	96	4	0	0	0

(d) Aug. 10-15

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	6	94	0	0	0
Independent	55	40	0	3	3
Democrat	99	0	0	0	0

Among Republicans, 83% are “likely voters”: that is, they say they are absolutely certain to vote in November’s elections or have already voted. The same is true of 89% of Democrats and 72% of independents. Early voting accounts for some of the Democratic advantage in those percentages, with 10% of Democrats saying they have already voted compared to 3% of Republicans. Those who have already voted are included in the percentages who are certain to vote. Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5; those who have already voted are included in the percentages who are “absolutely certain” to vote. In early October, Republicans were slightly more likely than Democrats to say they were certain to vote.

Table 5: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2022 general election for governor, Congress, and other offices – are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote? (“Absolutely certain” includes those who have already voted) by party identification

(a) Oct. 24-Nov. 1

Party ID	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote	Refused
Republican	83	10	5	2	0
Independent	72	13	9	6	1
Democrat	89	5	2	3	0

(b) Oct. 3-9

Party ID	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote
Republican	84	11	4	1
Independent	69	17	11	3
Democrat	83	10	7	0

(c) Sept. 6-11

Party ID	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote
Republican	77	16	3	3
Independent	71	13	12	3
Democrat	80	12	7	0

(d) Aug. 10-15

Party ID	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote
Republican	83	11	4	2
Independent	66	16	14	3
Democrat	82	8	5	5

The effect of different levels of turnout on the vote for governor is shown in Table 6. The first row shows preference among all registered voters, while the second row shows the results for an electorate composed of those either “absolutely certain” to vote or “very likely” to vote. The third row shows the results among only the most likely voters: those who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote. (As explained above and consistently with past practice, this last group constitutes “likely voters” in this release.)

Table 6: Vote for Governor by certainty of voting

How likely to vote	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know
All registered voters	44	45	5	0	3
Absolutely certain or very likely to vote	47	47	4	0	2
Absolutely certain to vote only	48	48	2	0	1

The vote preferences of those less than certain to vote differ from the preferences among those certain to vote, which also affects the difference in vote margin between “likely voters” and all registered voters. Table 7 shows vote for governor comparing those absolutely certain to vote (“likely voters”) and those who say they are not certain to vote. Those less than certain to vote support Michels over Evers but are also much more likely to choose the independent candidate, to say they don’t know or to refuse to say.

Table 7: Vote for governor by whether people are certain or less than certain to vote

Certainty of voting	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Absolutely certain	48	48	2	0	1	0
Less than certain	31	34	16	0	11	9

Table 8 shows the vote for U.S. Senate by certainty of voting.

Table 8: Vote for U.S. Senate by certainty of voting

How likely to vote	e	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know
All registered voters	45	48	2	1
Absolutely certain or very likely to vote	48	49	1	1
Absolutely certain to vote only	48	50	0	1

Table 9 shows vote preference for Senate comparing those who say they are absolutely certain to vote and those who say they are not. As with the vote for governor, the less likely give an edge to the Republican, Johnson, although those less likely to vote are also far more likely to not favor either candidate than are those absolutely certain to vote.

Table 9: Vote for U.S. Senate by whether people are certain or less than certain to vote

Certainty of voting	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Absolutely certain	48	50	0	1	1
Less than certain	33	43	8	4	11

Those who are not certain to vote are much less enthusiastic about voting and pay less attention to politics than are those certain to vote, as shown in Table 10 (a) and Table 10 (b).

Table 10: Enthusiasm and attention to politics by certainty of voting

(a) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections this November for governor, senator, and other offices?

Certainty of voting	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all	Don’t know	Refused
Absolutely certain	79	13	3	4	1	0
Less than certain	11	41	13	33	2	0

(b) Some people seem to follow what’s going on in politics most of the time, whether there’s an election going on or not. Others aren’t that interested. Would you say you follow what’s going on in politics …?

Certainty of voting	Most of the time	Some of the time	Only now and then	Hardly at all	Refused
Absolutely certain	77	19	3	1	0
Less than certain	36	17	24	23	0

Perceived candidate traits

Table 11 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates among all registered voters since June, along with those who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.

The non-incumbents have become substantially better known following their primary victories on Aug. 9, although they remain less well known than the incumbents.

Table 11: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT NAME] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? (among registered voters)

(a) Evers

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	44	46	6	3	1
10/3-9/22	44	46	6	3	1
9/6-11/22	45	45	7	3	0
8/10-15/22	46	41	6	6	0
6/14-20/22	44	42	11	2	0

(b) Michels

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	39	39	16	5	1
10/3-9/22	36	36	20	7	1
9/6-11/22	34	39	19	8	1
8/10-15/22	33	33	24	10	0
6/14-20/22	22	22	51	5	0

(c) Beglinger

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	1	3	63	31	1
10/3-9/22	1	6	66	26	1
9/6-11/22	3	6	63	28	0

(d) Barnes

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	40	44	11	4	1
10/3-9/22	39	40	15	6	0
9/6-11/22	33	32	25	9	1
8/10-15/22	37	22	30	11	0
6/14-20/22	21	16	57	6	0

(e) Johnson

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	43	46	7	3	1
10/3-9/22	41	45	9	4	1
9/6-11/22	39	47	11	3	1
8/10-15/22	38	47	9	6	0
6/14-20/22	37	46	14	2	0

Table 12 shows the perceptions of which candidates better understand the problems of ordinary people in Wisconsin over the course of the fall campaign.

Table 12: Who do you think better understands the problems faced by ordinary people in Wisconsin, …? (among registered voters)

(a) … Tony Evers or Tim Michels?

Poll dates	Tony Evers	Tim Michels	Both	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	48	44	0	2	5	1
10/3-9/22	47	39	0	5	7	0
9/6-11/22	47	41	0	4	7	0

(b) … Mandela Barnes or Ron Johnson?

Poll dates	Mandela Barnes	Ron Johnson	Both	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	44	45	0	2	7	1
10/3-9/22	47	40	1	5	8	0
9/6-11/22	44	40	1	6	9	0

Table 13 shows the perception that candidates “share my values.” There has been some increase in the percentage of those polled who say the candidates “don’t share my values,” with less change in the percentage perceiving shared values. These shifts are somewhat larger for the non-incumbent candidates, Michels and Barnes, who were less well known at the beginning of the fall campaign.

Table 13: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who shares your values or don’t they share your values? (among registered voters)

Candidate	Poll dates	Shares values	Doesn’t share values	Don’t know
Evers	10/24-11/1/22	48	46	6
Evers	10/3-9/22	48	47	5
Evers	9/6-11/22	47	48	5
Evers	8/10-15/22	50	41	9
Michels	10/24-11/1/22	41	47	11
Michels	10/3-9/22	43	45	12
Michels	9/6-11/22	41	47	11
Michels	8/10-15/22	38	38	23
Barnes	10/24-11/1/22	44	46	9
Barnes	10/3-9/22	44	44	12
Barnes	9/6-11/22	44	41	15
Barnes	8/10-15/22	45	31	24
Johnson	10/24-11/1/22	44	49	7
Johnson	10/3-9/22	46	47	7
Johnson	9/6-11/22	42	51	7
Johnson	8/10-15/22	40	50	10

Table 14 shows the perception that candidates “care about people like you.” The images of the challengers, Michels and Barnes, have seen shifts with fewer saying they don’t know enough and increases in the percent saying a candidate “doesn’t care,” while the percent saying “cares” has changed little. The images of the two incumbents, Evers and Johnson, have barely shifted since August.

Table 14: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who cares about people like you, or don’t they care about people like you? (among registered voters)

Candidate	Poll dates	Cares	Doesn’t care	Don’t know
Evers	10/24-11/1/22	52	40	8
Evers	8/10-15/22	54	38	9
Michels	10/24-11/1/22	43	46	11
Michels	8/10-15/22	38	38	23
Barnes	10/24-11/1/22	49	42	8
Barnes	8/10-15/22	50	27	23
Johnson	10/24-11/1/22	43	49	7
Johnson	8/10-15/22	41	49	10

Evers job approval

Table 15 shows approval since Feb. 2022 of how Evers has handled his job as governor. After declining net approval for much of the year, there have been slight upturns in the last two polls, with approval at 46% and disapproval at 47% in the latest survey.

Table 15: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Net approval	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	-1	46	47	6	2
10/3-9/22	-2	46	48	5	1
9/6-11/22	-3	44	47	8	0
8/10-15/22	2	47	45	8	1
6/14-20/22	3	48	45	6	1
4/19-24/22	6	49	43	7	1
2/22-27/22	9	50	41	8	1

Important issues

In each Marquette Law School poll since August 2021, respondents have been asked to rate how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Table 16 shows the concern with nine issues in the current survey, sorted from highest to lowest percent saying they are “very concerned.”

Table 16: How concerned are you about each of the following? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned with … (among registered voters)

Issue	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Inflation	68	24	6	2
Public Schools	62	28	5	5
Crime	57	28	11	3
Gun violence	56	25	10	7
Accurate vote count	56	17	13	13
Abortion policy	52	26	9	9
Taxes	48	36	12	3
Illegal immigration	40	29	16	15
Coronavirus	16	36	22	26

Inflation ranks as the top issue concern in this poll. After peaking in June, concern about inflation has been slightly lower since then but remains atop the list.

Table 17: Concern about inflation, Aug. 2021-Oct. 2022 (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
10/24-11/1/22	68	24	6	2
10/3-9/22	68	25	5	1
9/6-11/22	70	24	5	2
8/10-15/22	67	27	4	0
6/14-20/22	75	20	4	1
4/19-24/22	69	23	6	1
2/22-27/22	68	28	3	1
10/26-31/21	64	28	6	1
8/3-8/21	49	35	11	3

Partisans differ substantially in their concern over particular issues, as shown in Table 18. Panel (a) is sorted by Republican concern. Panel (b) is sorted by concern among Democrats. Panel (c) is sorted by concern among independents. The entries are the percent of each partisan group who say they are “very concerned” about the issue. Republicans and Democrats have different top concerns—an accurate vote count and inflation for Republicans, and abortion policy and gun violence for Democrats—while independents put inflation and public schools as their top concerns.

Table 18: Issue concerns by party identification, percent “very concerned” (among registered voters)

(a) Sorted by concern among Republicans

Issue	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Accurate vote count	81	50	38
Inflation	80	78	38
Crime	79	55	37
Illegal immigration	71	38	9
Taxes	62	54	21
Public schools	58	64	62
Gun violence	44	53	76
Abortion policy	33	47	81
Coronavirus	8	14	21

(b) Sorted by concern among Democrats

Issue	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Abortion policy	33	47	81
Gun violence	44	53	76
Public schools	58	64	62
Accurate vote count	81	50	38
Inflation	80	78	38
Crime	79	55	37
Coronavirus	8	14	21
Taxes	62	54	21
Illegal immigration	71	38	9

(c) Sorted by concern among Independents

Issue	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Inflation	80	78	38
Public schools	58	64	62
Crime	79	55	37
Taxes	62	54	21
Gun violence	44	53	76
Accurate vote count	81	50	38
Abortion policy	33	47	81
Illegal immigration	71	38	9
Coronavirus	8	14	21

Abortion

Awareness of the Supreme Court’s decision in June that overturned Roe v. Wade remains quite high. Seventy-eight percent say they have heard a lot about the decision, 19% have heard a little and 2% have heard nothing at all. Awareness has changed little since August, when 79% had heard a lot, 17% had heard a little and 3% had heard nothing at all. Table 19 shows attention to the decision by party identification in the current poll.

Table 19: How much have you heard or read about a recent United States Supreme Court decision on abortion? total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all	Don’t know
Total	78	19	2	0
Republican	75	22	3	0
Independent	77	20	2	0
Democrat	85	14	1	0

The decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is opposed by a majority of Wisconsin registered voters, including majorities of independents and Democrats, while it is favored by a majority of Republicans in the state, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Do you favor or oppose the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states? Total and by party identification (among registered voters)

(a) Oct. 24-Nov. 1

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	37	55	0	6	2
Republican	72	22	0	5	1
Independent	35	52	1	9	3
Democrat	4	92	0	2	1

(b) Oct. 3-9

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	33	60	1	4	2
Republican	61	32	1	3	3
Independent	30	60	1	6	2
Democrat	7	89	1	3	0

(c) Sept. 6-11

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	30	63	0	5	2
Republican	59	29	0	8	4
Independent	28	66	0	5	1
Democrat	3	95	0	2	0

(d) Aug. 10-15

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	33	60	1	4	2
Republican	62	28	0	8	2
Independent	31	62	2	2	3
Democrat	5	92	0	2	1

The respondents overwhelmingly support allowing legal abortions in the case of rape or incest. Support within each partisan group is 70% or more, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest? Total and by party identification (among registered voters)

(a) Oct. 24-Nov. 1

Party ID	Should allow	Should not allow	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	84	10	4	2
Republican	73	21	4	2
Independent	83	8	5	4
Democrat	97	3	1	0

(b) Oct. 3-9

Party ID	Should allow	Should not allow	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	83	11	4	2
Republican	72	19	7	2
Independent	83	9	5	3
Democrat	95	4	0	1

(c) Sept. 6-11

Party ID	Should allow	Should not allow	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	83	10	5	2
Republican	70	20	8	3
Independent	83	9	6	2
Democrat	96	2	2	0

Schools

If asked to choose between increasing state support for students to attend private schools or increasing funding for public schools, 29% favor more money for private school students while 63% prefer more state money go to public schools. Views on this issue differ by party identification, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: If you were making the choice for the next Wisconsin state budget between increasing state support for students to attend private schools or increasing state support for public schools, which would you favor, private schools or public schools? total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Private schools	Public schools	Both equally (VOL)	Neither (VOL)	Don’t know
Total	29	63	3	1	3
Republican	49	40	1	2	6
Independent	30	62	3	1	3
Democrat	7	90	2	0	1

Forty-six percent of registered voters say it is more important to reduce property taxes when compared to increasing spending on public schools, while 48% say it is more important to increase spending on public schools. When asked in early October, 42% said reduce property taxes and 52% said increase spending on public schools. Table 23 shows the partisan divide on support for property tax cuts vs. spending on schools in the current survey.

Table 23: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? Total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Reducing property taxes	Increasing spending on public schools	Don’t know	Refused
Total	46	48	5	1
Republican	72	20	8	1
Independent	47	48	3	1
Democrat	16	80	4	0

Opinion on the choice between reducing property taxes and increasing funding for public schools has varied substantially over time. There had been more concern about property taxes prior to 2015, when support for school funding surged. The gap between the two options has narrowed since 2020, as shown in Table 24

Table 24: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Reducing property taxes	Increasing spending on public schools	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	46	48	5	1
10/3-9/22	42	52	5	0
9/6-11/22	41	51	5	3
8/10-15/22	43	52	5	0
4/19-24/22	46	50	4	0
8/3-8/21	42	52	5	1
2/19-23/20	38	56	5	1
1/8-12/20	41	55	4	1
1/16-20/19	39	55	6	0
10/24-28/18	40	55	4	1
10/3-7/18	37	57	6	1
9/12-16/18	38	57	5	0
8/15-19/18	32	61	5	1
6/13-17/18	35	59	5	0
2/25-3/1/18	33	63	3	1
4/7-10/15	40	54	5	1
5/6-9/13	49	46	4	1
3/11-13/13	49	46	4	1

State funding for police

There is very high support for the state to increase funding for police, with 78% in favor of more state aid for police while 15% are opposed. Majorities of each partisan group support an increase in state support for police.

Table 25: Do you favor or oppose increasing state funding for local police in Wisconsin? Total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	78	15	6	2
Republican	95	2	3	1
Independent	80	12	7	1
Democrat	58	32	7	3

Parental leave

A majority, 73%, favor requiring businesses to provide paid leave for new parents, while 18% are opposed. In August, 78% favored this and 17% were opposed. Majorities of each partisan group favor a parental leave policy, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Do you favor or oppose a proposal that would require businesses to provide paid family leave for mothers and fathers of new babies? Total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	73	18	8	2
Republican	62	26	10	2
Independent	65	23	10	2
Democrat	95	3	2	0

Direction of state and family financial situation

A majority of respondents, 58%, think the state is off on the wrong track, while 34% say it is headed in the right direction. The trend since 2020 is shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	34	58	8	1
10/3-9/22	31	63	6	0
9/6-11/22	40	53	7	1
8/10-15/22	35	56	9	0
6/14-20/22	37	56	6	0
4/19-24/22	36	56	7	0
2/22-27/22	39	53	8	1
10/26-31/21	41	51	7	1
8/3-8/21	39	52	9	0
3/24-29/20	61	30	9	1
2/19-23/20	52	39	8	0
1/8-12/20	46	47	6	1

The percentage saying their family is “living comfortably” has declined since 2020, while percentages of those “just getting by” and “struggling” have risen, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	50	38	10	0	1
10/3-9/22	53	35	11	1	0
9/6-11/22	56	33	11	0	0
8/10-15/22	54	36	10	0	1
8/3-8/21	60	31	7	0	1
10/21-25/20	67	26	6	0	1
9/30-10/4/20	60	30	9	1	1
8/30-9/3/20	60	32	8	0	1
8/4-9/20	63	28	8	1	0
6/14-18/20	61	31	6	1	1
5/3-7/20	61	28	9	0	1
3/24-29/20	59	30	10	0	0
2/19-23/20	62	29	8	0	1
1/8-12/20	63	28	8	0	0
12/3-8/19	62	27	11	1	1
Poll dates	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling	Don’t know	Refused
11/13-17/19	66	25	8	0	1
8/25-29/19	59	30	9	1	0
4/3-7/19	59	31	9	0	0
1/16-20/19	60	30	9	1	0
10/24-28/18	60	30	9	0	1
10/3-7/18	63	29	7	0	0
9/12-16/18	56	32	12	1	0
8/15-19/18	63	28	9	0	0
6/13-17/18	58	30	11	1	1
2/25-3/1/18	54	34	10	1	0
6/22-25/17	53	32	14	1	0
3/13-16/17	54	35	11	1	0
10/26-31/16	50	35	14	0	1
10/6-9/16	47	38	15	0	0
9/15-18/16	53	34	11	1	1
8/25-28/16	53	33	13	0	0
6/9-12/16	50	37	12	0	0
3/24-28/16	51	38	10	1	0

Confidence in the 2022 and 2020 elections

Voters express more confidence that votes in this November’s election will be accurately cast and counted than they do, looking back, for the 2020 presidential election. Among registered voters 77% say they are very or somewhat confident and 20% say they are not too confident or not at all confident the upcoming election results will be accurate. The breakdown by party is shown in Table 29.

Table 29: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes in this November’s election will be accurately cast and counted? Total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know	Refused
Total	45	32	12	8	2	2
Republican	20	43	23	10	3	1
Independent	42	32	11	12	1	1
Democrat	76	21	1	0	0	2

Opinion on the accuracy of the results of the 2020 presidential election continues to sharply divide the public, with 65% saying they are very or somewhat confident and 33% saying they are not too confident or not at all confident in the election result. These views overall and by party identification are shown in Table 30.

Table 30: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? Total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know	Refused
Total	46	19	14	19	3	1
Republican	12	26	27	33	0	1
Independent	45	16	13	21	6	0
Democrat	85	13	0	0	1	0

Table 31 shows the trend in 2020 election confidence.

Table 31: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	46	19	14	19	3	1
10/3-9/22	48	15	15	19	3	0
9/6-11/22	46	19	16	18	1	0
8/10-15/22	48	18	15	17	2	1
6/14-20/22	51	16	11	21	0	0
4/19-24/22	48	16	12	23	1	0
2/22-27/22	48	19	11	19	2	0
10/26-31/21	47	18	12	19	3	0
8/3-8/21	48	19	15	16	1	0

Jan. 6 hearings and documents at Mar-a-Lago

Among registered voters, 55% say they have heard a lot about the hearings of the House Select Committee on Jan. 6, while 31% have heard a little and 13% have heard nothing at all. These results are hardly different from the results in August, as shown in Table 32.

Table 32: How much have you heard or read about the hearings of the House Select Committee on Jan. 6th? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all	Don’t know
10/24-11/1/22	55	31	13	0
8/10-15/22	57	27	15	1

There has also been virtually no change in opinion of the extent to which former President Donald Trump was responsible for the violence at the Capitol on Jan. 6th, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: How much responsibility, if any, should Donald Trump bear for the violence of some of his supporters in the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	48	17	32	1	1
8/10-15/22	47	19	31	2	2

A majority of registered voters, 55%, believe that Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago this past summer, while 27% say they do not believe he had such documents. Table 34 shows the beliefs about these documents by party identification.

Table 34: Do you believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago this past summer? Total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Yes	No	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	55	27	16	1
Republican	27	52	21	0
Independent	55	26	18	1
Democrat	88	4	8	0

Evaluations of Biden, Baldwin and Trump

In the current survey, 41% approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job as president, while 54% disapprove. In early October 42% approved and 55% disapproved. Table 35 shows approval overall and by party identification.

Table 35: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? Total and by party identification, October 2022 (among registered voters)

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Total	41	54	4	1
Republican	3	96	2	0
Independent	36	56	7	2
Democrat	90	9	1	0

The trend in Biden approval since 2021 is shown in Table 36.

Table 36: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	41	54	4	1
10/3-9/22	42	55	2	1
9/6-11/22	40	55	4	0
8/10-15/22	40	55	5	1
6/14-20/22	40	57	3	0
4/19-24/22	43	53	3	1
2/22-27/22	43	52	3	2
10/26-31/21	43	53	4	1
8/3-8/21	49	46	4	0

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seen favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 37%. The recent trend in views of Baldwin is shown in Table 37.

Table 37: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you heard enough about her yet? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	37	37	17	8	1
10/3-9/22	36	36	19	7	1
9/6-11/22	37	40	19	4	1
8/10-15/22	39	37	18	6	0
6/14-20/22	39	37	20	3	1
4/19-24/22	43	36	17	3	0
2/22-27/22	42	36	18	3	1
10/26-31/21	38	39	19	3	0
8/3-8/21	40	38	19	3	0

Table 38 shows opinion of Trump overall and by party identification in the current survey. A large majority of Republicans hold a favorable view of Trump, while majorities of independents and Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Table 38: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? Total and by party identification, September 2022 (among registered voters)

Party ID	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Total	39	53	2	4	2
Republican	78	12	3	5	2
Independent	35	53	4	6	2
Democrat	4	96	0	0	0

Views of Trump have barely changed since 2021, as shown in Table 39.

Table 39: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/24-11/1/22	39	53	2	4	2
10/3-9/22	37	55	2	5	1
9/6-11/22	38	58	1	3	0
8/10-15/22	38	57	1	4	0
6/14-20/22	39	56	3	2	0
4/19-24/22	36	58	2	3	1
2/22-27/22	36	57	2	3	2
10/26-31/21	38	57	2	3	0
8/3-8/21	38	55	3	4	1

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from Oct. 24-Nov. 1, 2022. The margin of error is +/-4.6 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error among 679 likely voters is +/-4.8 percentage points.

Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 399 and have a margin of error of +/-6.5 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 403 and have a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples on Form A include concern about the issues of public schools, inflation, taxes, and gun violence. Form B asked concern about the coronavirus pandemic, illegal immigration, and ensuring an accurate vote count. Form B also included an item on property taxes and school spending. Concern about crime and about abortion policy were asked on both Form A and Form B.

The partisan makeup of the sample in this poll, including those who lean to a party, is 46% Republican, 44% Democratic and 9% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 28% Democratic and 41% independent.

Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law Poll has been 45% Republican and 44 % Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship excluding those who lean has been 30% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.