MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds a wider margin in the U.S. Senate race than a month ago. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate.

The governor’s race has tightened to a tossup: Among likely voters, 47% support Democrat incumbent Gov. Tony Evers, while 46% favor the Republican challenger, Tim Michels. The independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, is chosen by 4%, while 1% don’t know for whom they will vote. Beglinger ended her campaign on Sept. 6 but will remain on the November ballot. In September, among likely voters, Evers received 47%, Michels 44%, and Beglinger 5%.

The survey was conducted Oct. 3-9, 2022, interviewing 801 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The margin of error among the 652 likely voters is +/-4.8 percentage points. The poll completed 596 of these interviews prior to the debate between the U.S. Senate candidates on Oct. 7.

Table 1 shows the vote preference for governor among likely voters, from August to October, and among registered voters since June. Beglinger was not included in the June survey. The results among all registered voters are more favorable to the Democratic candidates in both the governor and senate races, while totals for likely voters are, relatively, favorable for the Republican candidates. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Vote for Governor

(a) Likely voters

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	47	46	4	1	1	1
9/6-11/22	47	44	5	0	3	0
8/10-15/22	48	44	4	0	2	1

(b) Registered voters

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	46	41	7	1	3	1
9/6-11/22	44	43	8	1	4	0
8/10-15/22	45	43	7	0	3	2
6/14-20/22	48	41	N/A	2	8	2

Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates among likely voters from August to October and among registered voters since June.

Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate

(a) Likely voters

Poll dates	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	46	52	1	1	1
9/6-11/22	48	49	1	1	0
8/10-15/22	52	45	0	1	1

(b) Registered voters

Poll dates	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	47	47	4	2	1
9/6-11/22	47	48	3	3	0
8/10-15/22	51	44	1	3	1
6/14-20/22	46	44	1	7	2

Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in Table 3 among likely voters. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly unified behind their respective party’s candidates, with 96% of Democrats supporting Evers and 88% of Republicans supporting Michels, a small decline in GOP support for Michels since September. Forty-three percent of independents back Evers, while 44% prefer Michels, a tightening of preferences among independents since September and August. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 7% from independent voters, 4% from Republicans, and 1% from Democrats.

Table 3: Vote for governor, by party identification, among likely voters

(a) October

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	6	88	4	0	2	1
Independent	43	44	7	1	1	3
Democrat	96	2	1	0	0	0

(b) September

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	3	92	2	0	3	1
Independent	45	39	11	0	5	0
Democrat	95	4	2	0	0	0

(c) August

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	5	92	2	0	1	0
Independent	49	38	7	0	4	2
Democrat	94	2	3	0	0	1

Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4 among likely voters. Partisans are strongly aligned with their party’s candidates, with 93% of Democrats supporting Barnes and 96% of Republicans supporting Johnson. Forty-five percent of independents back Barnes, while 51% prefer Johnson. In September, 46% favored Barnes and 48% backed Johnson, a smaller shift among independents than seen between August and September.

Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate, by party identification, among likely voters

(a) October

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	3	96	0	0	1
Independent	45	51	3	1	1
Democrat	93	5	0	2	0

(b) September

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	2	97	1	0	0
Independent	46	48	2	3	0
Democrat	96	4	0	0	0

(c) August

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	6	94	0	0	0
Independent	55	40	0	3	3
Democrat	99	0	0	0	0

Differences in the likelihood of voting, and in vote preference by certainty of voting, account for the different results between likely voters and all registered voters. Among Republicans, 84% say they are absolutely certain to vote in November’s elections or have already voted, as do 83% of Democrats and 69% of independents. Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5. In September, Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to say they were certain to vote.

Table 5: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2022 general election for governor, Congress, and other offices—are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote? (Certain includes those who have already voted) by party identification

(a) October

Party ID	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote
Republican	84	11	4	1
Independent	69	17	11	3
Democrat	83	10	7	0

(b) September

Party ID	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote
Republican	77	16	3	3
Independent	71	13	12	3
Democrat	80	12	7	0

(c) August

Party ID	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote
Republican	83	11	4	2
Independent	66	16	14	3
Democrat	82	8	5	5

The effect of different levels of turnout on vote for governor is shown in Table 6. The first row shows preference among all registered voters, with the second row showing the results for an electorate composed of those either “absolutely certain” to vote or “very likely” to vote. The third row shows the results among only the most likely voters: those who say they are absolutely certain to vote (a category generally said to constitute “likely voters”).

Table 6: Vote for governor, by certainty of voting

How likely to vote	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know
All registered voters	46	41	7	1	3
Absolutely certain or very likely to vote	47	44	4	1	3
Absolutely certain to vote only	47	46	4	1	1

The vote preferences of those less than certain to vote differ from the preferences among those describing themselves as certain to vote, which also affects the difference in vote margin between likely voters and all registered voters. Table 7 shows vote for governor comparing those absolutely certain to vote and those who say they are not certain to vote.

Table 7: Vote for governor by certain or less than certain to vote

Certainty of voting	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Absolutely certain	47	46	4	1	1	1
Less than certain	45	26	15	3	10	0

Table 8 shows the vote for U.S. Senate by likelihood of voting groupings.

Table 8: Vote for U.S. Senate by certainty of voting

How likely to vote	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know
All registered voters	47	47	4	2
Absolutely certain or very likely to vote	47	49	2	2
Absolutely certain to vote only	46	52	1	1

Table 9 shows vote preference for Senate comparing those absolutely certain to vote and those who say they are not certain to vote. As with the vote for governor, candidate preference differs by certainty of voting.

Table 9: Vote for U.S. Senate, by certain or less than certain to vote

Certainty of voting	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Absolutely certain	46	52	1	1	1
Less than certain	51	31	12	6	1

Perceived candidate ideology

Table 10 shows the perceived ideology of the Senate candidates, from “very liberal” to “very conservative.” For comparison, the self-described ideology of voters is included in the table. Both candidates are perceived as more strongly ideological than voters describe themselves. Voters are much more likely to describe themselves as “moderate” than to describe either candidate that way. Barnes is seen as “very liberal” by 32%, and Johnson is seen as “very conservative” by 37%. By comparison, 6% describe themselves as “very liberal” and 9% say they are “very conservative.”

Table 10: Perceived ideology of Senate candidates (among registered voters)

Perceived ideology:	Very liberal	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative	Very conservative	Don’t know
Mandela Barnes	32	32	17	4	2	13
Ron Johnson	1	2	8	39	37	11
Voter’s self-description	6	18	31	32	9	3

The candidates for governor are also seen as more ideological than the public sees itself, as shown in Table 11. Evers is seen as “very liberal” by 25%, and Michels is seen as “very conservative” by 32%. More see Evers as “moderate,” 23%, than see Michels that way, 8%. Neither matches the percent of self-described moderates in the electorate.

Table 11: Perceived ideology of gubernatorial candidates (among registered voters)

Perceived ideology:	Very liberal	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative	Very conservative	Don’t know
Tony Evers	25	35	23	6	2	8
Tim Michels	2	3	8	36	32	18
Voter’s self-description	6	18	31	32	9	3

Perception of the candidates’ ideology varies with the voters’ self-described ideology. Voters who are very liberal, for example, tend to describe the Republican candidates as “very conservative,” while those who are very conservative tend to describe the Democratic candidates as “very liberal.” Those candidates in the same ideological camp as the voter are generally not seen as being so extreme, although voters who describe themselves as very conservative are somewhat more likely than not to describe Johnson as also very conservative. These relationships are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Perceived candidate ideology, by self-described ideology (among registered voters)

(a) Mandela Barnes

Voter’s self-description	Very liberal	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative	Very conservative
Very liberal	14	66	18	0	0
Liberal	9	54	27	0	2
Moderate	18	33	25	6	1
Conservative	54	21	7	3	2
Very conservative	66	8	5	5	3

(b) Ron Johnson

Voter’s self-description	Very liberal	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative	Very conservative
Very liberal	5	0	1	23	70
Liberal	0	1	4	26	59
Moderate	2	4	11	33	35
Conservative	1	1	9	59	18
Very conservative	1	2	6	41	47

(c) Tony Evers

Voter’s self-description	Very liberal	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative	Very conservative
Very liberal	13	49	35	0	2
Liberal	5	58	30	4	1
Moderate	15	25	38	10	1
Conservative	42	32	11	6	2
Very conservative	52	31	5	3	3

(d) Tim Michels

Voter’s self-description	Very liberal	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative	Very conservative
Very liberal	2	0	7	13	69
Liberal	0	1	6	23	47
Moderate	4	4	8	23	38
Conservative	3	1	9	58	15
Very conservative	0	3	12	49	27

Perceived candidate traits

Table 13 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates since June, along with those respondents who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.

The non-incumbents have become substantially better known following their primary victories on Aug. 9, although they remain less well known than the incumbents.

Table 13: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT NAME] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? (among registered voters)

(a) Evers

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	44	46	6	3	1
9/6-11/22	45	45	7	3	0
8/10-15/22	46	41	6	6	0
6/14-20/22	44	42	11	2	0

(b) Michels

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	36	36	20	7	1
9/6-11/22	34	39	19	8	1
8/10-15/22	33	33	24	10	0
6/14-20/22	22	22	51	5	0

(c) Beglinger

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	1	6	66	26	1
9/6-11/22	3	6	63	28	0

(d) Barnes

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	39	40	15	6	0
9/6-11/22	33	32	25	9	1
8/10-15/22	37	22	30	11	0
6/14-20/22	21	16	57	6	0

(e) Johnson

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	41	45	9	4	1
9/6-11/22	39	47	11	3	1
8/10-15/22	38	47	9	6	0
6/14-20/22	37	46	14	2	0

Table 14 shows the perceptions of which candidates better understand the problems of ordinary people in Wisconsin.

Table 14: Who do you think better understands the problems faced by ordinary people in Wisconsin, …? (among registered voters)

(a) … Tony Evers or Tim Michels?

Poll dates	Tony Evers	Tim Michels	Both	Neither	Don’t know
10/3-9/22	47	39	0	5	7

(b) … Mandela Barnes or Ron Johnson?

Poll dates	Mandela Barnes	Ron Johnson	Both	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	47	40	1	5	8	0

Table 15 shows the perception that candidates “share my values.” The relative lack of familiarity with the non-incumbent candidates, Michels and Barnes, is evident in the higher percentages that say they “don’t know” about them compared to the two incumbents, Evers and Johnson.

Table 15: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who shares your values or don’t they share your values? (among registered voters)

Candidate	Shares values	Doesn’t share values	Don’t know
Evers	48	47	5
Michels	43	45	12
Barnes	44	44	12
Johnson	46	47	7

Evers job approval

Table 16 shows approval of how Evers has handled his job as governor since February 2022.

Table 16: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Net approval	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	-2	46	48	5	1
9/6-11/22	-3	44	47	8	0
8/10-15/22	2	47	45	8	1
6/14-20/22	3	48	45	6	1
4/19-24/22	6	49	43	7	1
2/22-27/22	9	50	41	8	1

Important issues

In each Marquette Law School Poll since August 2021, respondents have been asked to rate how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Table 17 shows the concern with nine issues in the current survey, sorted from highest to lowest percent saying they are “very concerned.”

Table 17: How concerned are you about each of the following? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned with … (among registered voters)

Issue	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Inflation	68	25	5	1
Public Schools	60	29	6	3
Gun violence	60	22	9	5
Abortion policy	56	22	10	8
Crime	56	29	11	3
Accurate vote count	52	23	13	10
Taxes	47	36	12	3
Illegal immigration	40	23	23	13
Coronavirus	13	33	25	28

Inflation ranks as the top issue concern. After peaking in June, concern about inflation has been slightly lower since August, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Concern about inflation, Aug. 2021-Oct. 2022 (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
10/3-9/22	68	25	5	1
9/6-11/22	70	24	5	2
8/10-15/22	67	27	4	0
6/14-20/22	75	20	4	1
4/19-24/22	69	23	6	1
2/22-27/22	68	28	3	1
10/26-31/21	64	28	6	1
8/3-8/21	49	35	11	3

Partisans differ substantially in their concern over particular issues, as shown in Table 19. Panel (a) is sorted by Republican concern, panel (b) is sorted by concern among Democrats and panel (c) is sorted by concern among independents. The entries are the percent of each partisan group who say they are “very concerned” about the issue. Republicans and Democrats have different top concerns, inflation and crime for Republicans, abortion policy and gun violence for Democrats, while independents put public schools as their top concern, followed by inflation.

Table 19: Issue concerns by party identification, percent “very concerned” (among registered voters)

(a) Sorted by concern among Republicans

Issue	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Inflation	81	69	51
Illegal immigration	74	37	12
Crime	74	55	38
Accurate vote count	72	55	30
Taxes	59	53	25
Public schools	54	71	53
Gun violence	43	58	78
Abortion policy	36	53	81
Coronavirus	9	10	23

(b) Sorted by concern among Democrats

Issue	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Abortion policy	36	53	81
Gun violence	43	58	78
Public schools	54	71	53
Inflation	81	69	51
Crime	74	55	38
Accurate vote count	72	55	30
Taxes	59	53	25
Coronavirus	9	10	23
Illegal immigration	74	37	12

(c) Sorted by concern among Independents

Issue	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Public schools	54	71	53
Inflation	81	69	51
Gun violence	43	58	78
Crime	74	55	38
Accurate vote count	72	55	30
Taxes	59	53	25
Abortion policy	36	53	81
Illegal immigration	74	37	12
Coronavirus	9	10	23

Gender differences also appear across issues. Women are notably more concerned with gun violence and abortion policy than are men, while men are substantially more concerned with taxes than are women. Inflation is a substantial and similar level of concern for both men and women. Gender differences in concern on other issues are modest.

Table 20: Issue concerns by gender, percent “very concerned” (among registered voters)

(a) Sorted by concern among women

Issue	Male	Female
Gun violence	46	72
Inflation	71	66
Abortion policy	48	63
Public schools	58	61
Crime	55	57
Accurate vote count	52	52
Taxes	55	41
Illegal immigration	40	40
Coronavirus	9	18

(b) Sorted by concern among men

Issue	Male	Female
Inflation	71	66
Public schools	58	61
Crime	55	57
Taxes	55	41
Accurate vote count	52	52
Abortion policy	48	63
Gun violence	46	72
Illegal immigration	40	40
Coronavirus	9	18

Abortion

The decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is opposed by a majority of Wisconsin registered voters, including majorities of independents and Democrats, while it is favored by a majority of Republicans in the state, as shown in Table 21. There has been little change in opinion on this since August.

Table 21: Do you favor or oppose the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

(a) October

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	33	60	1	4	2
Republican	61	32	1	3	3
Independent	30	60	1	6	2
Democrat	7	89	1	3	0

(b) September

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	30	63	0	5	2
Republican	59	29	0	8	4
Independent	28	66	0	5	1
Democrat	3	95	0	2	0

(c) August

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	33	60	1	4	2
Republican	62	28	0	8	2
Independent	31	62	2	2	3
Democrat	5	92	0	2	1

The survey respondents overwhelmingly support allowing legal abortions in the case of rape or incest. Support within each partisan group is 70% or more, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

(a) October

Party ID	Should allow	Should not allow	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	83	11	4	2
Republican	72	19	7	2
Independent	83	9	5	3
Democrat	95	4	0	1

(b) September

Party ID	Should allow	Should not allow	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	83	10	5	2
Republican	70	20	8	3
Independent	83	9	6	2
Democrat	96	2	2	0

(c) August

Party ID	Should allow	Should not allow	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	88	8	4	1
Republican	79	16	4	2
Independent	87	6	5	2
Democrat	97	1	1	0

Marijuana legalization

About two-thirds of registered voters, 64%, favor legalization of marijuana, with 30% opposed. Table 23 shows the total and partisan views of this issue.

Table 23: Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal or not? (among registered voters)

Party ID	Yes, legal	No, illegal	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	64	30	6	1
Republican	43	50	6	1
Independent	67	25	6	1
Democrat	82	14	4	0

Views of legalization of marijuana have changed significantly since 2013, as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal or not? since 2013 (among registered voters)

Poll date	Legal	Illegal	Don’t know	Refused
10/21-24/13	50	45	5	1
3/20-23/14	42	52	6	0
9/11-14/14	46	51	2	0
7/7-10/16	59	39	1	0
8/15-19/18	61	36	3	0
1/16-20/19	58	35	6	0
4/3-7/19	59	36	4	1
2/22-27/22	61	31	7	0
8/10-15/22	69	23	8	0
10/3-9/22	64	30	6	1

Fear of crime

While 56% say they are very concerned with crime, a large majority, 77%, say they feel safe going about their daily activities. Twenty-one percent of respondents say they worry about their safety. On this item, there are moderate partisan differences, and large majorities of each partisan group say they feel safe, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Feel safe	Worried	Don’t know
Total	77	21	1
Republican	71	26	3
Independent	76	24	0
Democrat	86	12	1

While generally not worried about their personal safety, Republicans express considerably greater concern than Democrats about crime as an issue, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned	Don’t know
Total	56	29	11	3	0
Republican	74	17	7	2	0
Independent	55	32	8	4	1
Democrat	38	39	19	5	0

Worry about personal safety is greater in the City of Milwaukee than in other areas of the state, as shown in Table 27, which combines data from October 2021 and April, September, and October 2022 to provide regional comparisons.

Table 27: Do you feel safe from crime when going about your daily activities or are you worried about your safety? by region, Oct. 2021, April, Sept. & Oct. 2022 (among registered voters)

Region	Feel safe	Worried	Don’t know
City of Milwaukee	51	48	1
Rest of Milwaukee media market	74	24	2
Madison media market	82	17	1
Green Bay media market	86	14	0
Rest of north and west of state	85	15	0

While those in the Milwaukee area outside of the city are much less worried about personal safety than are residents of the city, they express similarly high levels of concern about crime to those in the city. Those in other regions of the state express lower levels of concern. Table 28 combines the August, September, and October polls to increase sample size in each region.

Table 28: How concerned are you about each of the following… Crime? by region, Aug., Sept. & Oct. 2022 (among registered voters)

Region	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned	Don’t know
City of Milwaukee	74	16	8	2	0
Rest of Milwaukee media market	67	25	6	1	0
Madison media market	48	35	14	2	0
Green Bay media market	49	32	12	6	1
Rest of north and west of state	54	31	11	3	1

Schools

If asked to choose between increasing state support for students to attend private schools or increasing funding for public schools, 28% favor more money for private school students, while 64% prefer more state money go to public schools. Views on this issue differ by party identification, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: If you were making the choice for the next Wisconsin state budget between increasing state support for students to attend private schools and increasing state support for public schools, which would you favor, private schools or public schools? total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Private schools	Public schools	Both equally	Neither	Don’t know
Total	28	64	3	2	3
Republican	46	45	1	3	4
Independent	30	59	5	2	4
Democrat	5	93	1	0	1

Forty-two percent of registered voters say it is more important to reduce property taxes, while 52% say it is more important to increase spending on public schools. When asked in September, 41% said reduce property taxes and 51% said increase spending on public schools. Table 30 shows the partisan divide on support for property tax cuts vs. spending on schools in the September survey.

Table 30: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Reducing property taxes	Increasing spending on public schools	Don’t know	Refused
Total	42	52	5	0
Republican	69	25	6	0
Independent	40	52	7	1
Democrat	16	82	1	1

Opinion on the choice between reducing property taxes and increasing funding for public schools has varied substantially over time, with more concern about property taxes prior to 2015, while support for school funding began to surge in 2015, subsiding somewhat beginning in late 2018. The trend is shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Reducing property taxes	Increasing spending on public schools	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	42	52	5	0
9/6-11/22	41	51	5	3
8/10-15/22	43	52	5	0
4/19-24/22	46	50	4	0
8/3-8/21	42	52	5	1
2/19-23/20	38	56	5	1
1/8-12/20	41	55	4	1
1/16-20/19	39	55	6	0
10/24-28/18	40	55	4	1
10/3-7/18	37	57	6	1
9/12-16/18	38	57	5	0
8/15-19/18	32	61	5	1
6/13-17/18	35	59	5	0
2/25-3/1/18	33	63	3	1
4/7-10/15	40	54	5	1
5/6-9/13	49	46	4	1
3/11-13/13	49	46	4	1

State funding for police and sentencing preferences

There is very high support for the state to increase funding for police, with 75% in favor of more state aid for police and 19% opposed. Majorities of each partisan group support an increase in state support for police.

Table 32: Do you favor or oppose increasing state funding for local police in Wisconsin?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	75	19	6	1
Republican	91	7	3	0
Independent	72	20	6	1
Democrat	61	29	9	1

Opinion on harsher sentencing for crimes is evenly divided, with 41% saying sentences should be more severe for all crimes, while 46% oppose making sentences more severe. Opinion was also evenly divided on this question when last asked in July 2016, with 49% supporting more severe sentences and 48% opposed. There is a partisan divide on this issue, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Do you support or oppose making sentences more severe for all crimes?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Support	Oppose	Don’t know	Refused
Total	41	46	12	1
Republican	65	23	11	1
Independent	34	51	14	2
Democrat	27	63	9	1

More people oppose increasing incarceration of juvenile offenders, 49%, than support doing so, 35%. In July 2016, 52% opposed increased incarceration of juvenile offenders and 46% supported it. Overall opinion and the views by party are shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Do you support or oppose locking up more juvenile offenders?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Support	Oppose	Don’t know	Refused
Total	35	49	14	2
Republican	55	28	17	0
Independent	29	53	15	3
Democrat	23	66	10	1

Direction of state and family financial situation

A majority of respondents, 63%, think the state is off on the wrong track, while 31% say it is headed in the right direction. The trend since 2020 is shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	31	63	6	0
9/6-11/22	40	53	7	1
8/10-15/22	35	56	9	0
6/14-20/22	37	56	6	0
4/19-24/22	36	56	7	0
2/22-27/22	39	53	8	1
10/26-31/21	41	51	7	1
8/3-8/21	39	52	9	0
3/24-29/20	61	30	9	1
2/19-23/20	52	39	8	0
1/8-12/20	46	47	6	1

The percentage saying their family is “living comfortably” has declined somewhat since 2020, while those “just getting by” or “struggling” have risen in number, as shown in Table 36. The current numbers are closer to the first time the question was asked, in 2016, than to the numbers in the middle period.

Table 36: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	53	35	11	1	0
9/6-11/22	56	33	11	0	0
8/10-15/22	54	36	10	0	1
8/3-8/21	60	31	7	0	1
10/21-25/20	67	26	6	0	1
9/30-10/4/20	60	30	9	1	1
8/30-9/3/20	60	32	8	0	1
8/4-9/20	63	28	8	1	0
6/14-18/20	61	31	6	1	1
5/3-7/20	61	28	9	0	1
3/24-29/20	59	30	10	0	0
2/19-23/20	62	29	8	0	1
1/8-12/20	63	28	8	0	0
12/3-8/19	62	27	11	1	1
Poll dates	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling	Don’t know	Refused
11/13-17/19	66	25	8	0	1
8/25-29/19	59	30	9	1	0
4/3-7/19	59	31	9	0	0
1/16-20/19	60	30	9	1	0
10/24-28/18	60	30	9	0	1
10/3-7/18	63	29	7	0	0
9/12-16/18	56	32	12	1	0
8/15-19/18	63	28	9	0	0
6/13-17/18	58	30	11	1	1
2/25-3/1/18	54	34	10	1	0
6/22-25/17	53	32	14	1	0
3/13-16/17	54	35	11	1	0
10/26-31/16	50	35	14	0	1
10/6-9/16	47	38	15	0	0
9/15-18/16	53	34	11	1	1
8/25-28/16	53	33	13	0	0
6/9-12/16	50	37	12	0	0
3/24-28/16	51	38	10	1	0

Confidence in 2020 election

Opinion on the accuracy of the results of the 2020 presidential election continues to sharply divide the public, with 63% saying they are very or somewhat confident in the presidential election result and 34% saying they are not too confident or not at all confident in it. These views overall and by party identification are shown in Table 37.

Table 37: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?, total and by party identification (among registered voters)

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know	Refused
Total	48	15	15	19	3	0
Republican	18	16	27	35	4	0
Independent	43	22	14	18	3	1
Democrat	88	6	3	2	1	0

Table 38 shows the trend in 2020 election confidence.

Table 38: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	48	15	15	19	3	0
9/6-11/22	46	19	16	18	1	0
8/10-15/22	48	18	15	17	2	1
6/14-20/22	51	16	11	21	0	0
4/19-24/22	48	16	12	23	1	0
2/22-27/22	48	19	11	19	2	0
10/26-31/21	47	18	12	19	3	0
8/3-8/21	48	19	15	16	1	0

Evaluations of Biden, Baldwin, and Trump

In October, 42% approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 55% disapprove. In September, 40% approved and 55% disapproved. Table 39 shows approval overall and by party identification.

Table 39: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?, total and by party identification, October 2022 (among registered voters)

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Total	42	55	2	1
Republican	6	93	0	0
Independent	37	59	3	1
Democrat	88	9	2	1

The trend in Biden approval since 2021 is shown in Table 40.

Table 40: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	42	55	2	1
9/6-11/22	40	55	4	0
8/10-15/22	40	55	5	1
6/14-20/22	40	57	3	0
4/19-24/22	43	53	3	1
2/22-27/22	43	52	3	2
10/26-31/21	43	53	4	1
8/3-8/21	49	46	4	0

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 36%. The trend in views of Baldwin is shown in Table 41.

Table 41: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you heard enough about her yet? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	36	36	19	7	1
9/6-11/22	37	40	19	4	1
8/10-15/22	39	37	18	6	0
6/14-20/22	39	37	20	3	1
4/19-24/22	43	36	17	3	0
2/22-27/22	42	36	18	3	1
10/26-31/21	38	39	19	3	0
8/3-8/21	40	38	19	3	0

Table 42 shows opinion of former President Donald Trump overall and by party identification in the October survey. A large majority of Republicans hold a favorable view of Trump, while majorities of independents and Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Table 42: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump or haven’t you heard enough about him yet?, total and by party identification, September 2022 (among registered voters)

Party ID	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Total	37	55	2	5	1
Republican	78	15	2	5	0
Independent	29	58	3	7	3
Democrat	4	95	1	0	0

Views of Trump have barely changed since 2021, as shown in Table 43.

Table 43: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/3-9/22	37	55	2	5	1
9/6-11/22	38	58	1	3	0
8/10-15/22	38	57	1	4	0
6/14-20/22	39	56	3	2	0
4/19-24/22	36	58	2	3	1
2/22-27/22	36	57	2	3	2
10/26-31/21	38	57	2	3	0
8/3-8/21	38	55	3	4	1

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 801 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone during Oct. 3-9, 2022. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error among the 652 likely voters is +/-4.8 percentage points. The poll completed 596 interviews prior to the debate between the U.S. Senate candidates on Oct. 7.

Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 402 respondents and have a margin of error of +/-6.2 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 399 and have a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples include on Form A concern about the issues of public schools, inflation, taxes, and gun violence. Form B asked concern about the coronavirus pandemic, illegal immigration, and ensuring an accurate vote count. Form B also included items on property taxes and school spending, and the closing of schools and businesses at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Concern about crime and abortion policy was asked on both Form A and Form B.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 9% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 40% independent.

Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45% Republican and 44% Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship excluding those who lean has been 30% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent. The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School national survey finds that 33% of adults say they do not believe Donald Trump had “top secret and other classified material” at his Mar-a-Lago estate this summer, while 67% believe he did have such documents. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say he did not have such secret documents, while 39% say he did. In contrast, large majorities of independents and Democrats think Trump had classified material at his Florida home, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Do you believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago this summer?

Party ID	Yes	No
Total	67	33
Republican	39	61
Independent	65	34
Democrat	93	7

The survey was conducted Sept 7-14, 2022, interviewing 1,448 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

Most of those who have a favorable view of Trump, regardless of party, do not believe he had secret documents in his possession, while over 80% of those with an unfavorable opinion, regardless of party, say that he did have secret documents. Table 2 shows belief about the documents by party and favorability toward Trump. There are too few Democrats with a favorable opinion of Trump to provide a reliable subsample.

Table 2: Do you believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago this summer? by favorability to Trump and party identification

Favorable to Trump	Party ID	Yes	No
Favorable opinion	Republican	25	75
Favorable opinion	Independent	33	67
Unfavorable opinion	Republican	85	15
Unfavorable opinion	Independent	82	17
Unfavorable opinion	Democrat	94	6

Among all adults, 34% have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 64% have an unfavorable view. This is essentially unchanged since before the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8: In the July national Marquette Law School Poll, 34% had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 62% had an unfavorable view. Trump retains a heavily favorable rating among Republicans, while majorities of independents and Democrats view him unfavorably, as shown in Table 3

Table 3: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? . . . Donald Trump

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	34	64	2
Republican	77	23	0
Independent	30	65	5
Democrat	2	97	1

Within the GOP, a majority (66%) would like to see Trump run for president in 2024,  while 34% would not like him to run. This percentage is down slightly since the July survey but within the range of results in the previous year. The trend for this question among Republicans is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not? (Among Republicans)

Poll dates	Yes	No
11/1-10/21	60	40
1/10-21/22	63	37
3/14-24/22	68	32
5/9-19/22	68	31
7/5-12/22	74	26
9/7-14/22	66	34

In a hypothetical match between President Joe Biden and Trump in a 2024 election, Biden receives 40% and Trump 36%, while 19% say they would vote for someone else and 6% say they would not vote. Biden has held a slim margin in polls over the last year on this question, but the margin has tightened over time, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? [order of the two names in question was randomized in survey]

Poll dates	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21	34	42	18	6
1/10-21/22	33	43	16	6
3/14-24/22	37	41	15	7
9/7-14/22	36	40	19	6

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis fares similarly in a hypothetical 2024 election against Biden, with Biden receiving 40% and DeSantis  35%, with 16% preferring someone else and 9% saying they would not vote. The trend for this matchup is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden? [order of the two names in question was randomized in survey]

Poll dates	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote	Web blank
1/10-21/22	33	41	18	8	1
3/14-24/22	33	38	20	9	0
9/7-14/22	35	40	16	9	0

Among Democrats, 52% would like Biden to run in 2024, while 48% would not like him to run.

Among all adults, majorities would like neither Biden nor Trump to run in 2024. For Biden, 28% want him to run and 72% do not, while for Trump 31% want him to run and 69% do not.

Confidence in institutions

Table 7 shows confidence in six American institutions. For the first time in three years of asking this question, confidence in the presidency was higher than confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court, though only by a slight margin.

Table 7: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Institution	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
Congress	4	12	37	35	12
Your state supreme court	8	27	45	15	6
U.S. Supreme Court	10	20	34	26	10
The Presidency	13	20	29	24	14
The FBI	19	25	30	16	10
The police	21	30	28	14	6

Republicans are substantially more confident in the police than are independents or Democrats, as shown in Table 8 (a). However, Republicans express considerably less confidence in the FBI than do independents and Democrats, shown in Table 8 (b).

Table 8: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . [order randomized in survey question]

(a) The police

Party ID	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
Republican	36	37	21	3	3
Independent	15	30	29	17	9
Democrat	15	25	33	20	7

. . .

(b) The FBI

Party ID	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
Republican	11	19	28	25	16
Independent	16	22	33	17	12
Democrat	29	34	28	7	2

Student loan forgiveness

A majority, 59%, favor the decision to forgive some student loans up to $20,000 while 40% are opposed. There are sharp partisan differences on this policy, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Do you favor or oppose the decision to forgive and cancel up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt?

Party ID	Strongly favor	Somewhat favor	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose
Total	37	22	12	28
Republican	15	10	13	62
Independent	36	23	15	25
Democrat	58	31	7	3

Support for loan forgiveness is high among younger adults and declines with age, while there are only modest differences between college graduates and non-graduates within age categories, as shown in Table 10. Among those under 45, slightly more non-graduates than graduates favor loan forgiveness while the reverse is true among those 45 and older.

Table 10: Do you favor or oppose the decision to forgive and cancel up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt? by age and college graduation status

Age	College status	Favor	Oppose
18-29	Non-college	82	18
18-29	College grad	77	23
30-44	Non-college	69	31
30-44	College grad	61	39
45-59	Non-college	56	44
45-59	College grad	60	40
60+	Non-college	41	59
60+	College grad	50	50

Abortion

A majority, 61%, oppose the decision by the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade, while 30% favor that ruling and 10% say they don’t have an opinion. (Those particular and certain other data about public views of the Court from this September survey were released yesterday, Sept. 21, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website; this release provides further results of the same survey on national topics.) In July, 57% opposed and 31% favored the decision.

There has been little change in preferred policy with respect to abortion in the wake of the Court’s decision, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
5/9-19/22	29	38	24	8
7/5-12/22	28	36	27	8
9/7-14/22	31	37	26	6

Democrats rate the importance of abortion higher than do independents or Republicans, as shown in Table 12.  The importance of abortion has increased since May among Democrats. while rising less among independents or Republicans.

Table 12: How important is the abortion issue to you—would you say it is one of the most important issues, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?

Party ID	zwave	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Republican	5/9-19/22	34	41	15	9
Republican	7/5-12/22	33	43	18	6
Republican	9/7-14/22	40	35	18	7
Independent	5/9-19/22	38	39	17	5
Independent	7/5-12/22	41	38	13	6
Independent	9/7-14/22	42	38	14	6
Democrat	5/9-19/22	48	38	10	3
Democrat	7/5-12/22	51	39	7	3
Democrat	9/7-14/22	61	33	5	1

In a hypothetical choice between a candidate who favors keeping abortion legal and a candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion, 55% support the abortion rights candidate and 30% favor the candidate who would limit abortion, while 15% say the abortion issue would not matter to them. Half of respondents were asked this question.

In an experiment, the other half of the sample were asked the same question but with the candidates identified as a Democrat who favors abortion rights and a Republican who favors strict limits on abortion. Providing this partisan cue made no difference in the results, with 54% favoring the Democrat supporter of abortion rights and 29% favoring the Republican who favors limiting abortion, with 17% saying abortion would not matter for them.

A very large majority, 90%, say their state should allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion in cases of rape or incest, with 10% saying this should not be allowed. Large majorities favor this among each party, as shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Do you think your state should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest?

Party ID	Should allow	Should not allow
Total	90	10
Republican	81	19
Independent	90	10
Democrat	97	3

A majority, 82%, say states should not be able to make it illegal to travel to another state to obtain a legal abortion, while 18% say states should be able to do so. The partisan differences on this issue are shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Should a state be able to make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion by travelling to a different state where abortion is legal?

Party ID	Yes	No
Total	18	82
Republican	26	74
Independent	16	83
Democrat	14	86

A majority, 76%, say states should not be able to make it illegal to order from out-of-state prescription medication that induces an abortion, while 23% say states should be able to do so. The partisan differences on this issue are shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Should a state be able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill a prescription from out-of-state providers for medication that will induce an abortion, sometimes called “medication abortion” or “abortion pills”?

Party ID	Yes	No
Total	23	76
Republican	40	60
Independent	21	79
Democrat	12	87

Biden job approval

Approval of how Biden is handling his job as president increased to 45% in September, with 55% disapproving. In July, 36% approved and 64% disapproved. The trend in Biden approval is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	45	55

The survey finds the enthusiasm advantage Republicans held in the spring has largely vanished among registered voters, with 54% of Republicans and 51% of Democrats saying they are very enthusiastic to vote. Table 17 shows the trend in enthusiasm by party since May.

Table 17: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections this November for congressional and state offices? (Among registered voters)

Party ID	Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Republican	5/9-19/22	55	31	12	1
Republican	7/5-12/22	63	25	10	2
Republican	9/7-14/22	54	29	15	2
Independent	5/9-19/22	34	28	26	12
Independent	7/5-12/22	33	23	33	11
Independent	9/7-14/22	36	32	23	9
Democrat	5/9-19/22	42	37	19	2
Democrat	7/5-12/22	45	31	17	7
Democrat	9/7-14/22	51	33	13	3

In September among registered voters, 75% of Democrats and 73% of Republicans say they are absolutely certain to vote.

Among registered voters, 47% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress and 41% would vote for the Republican candidate. Party loyalty is very high for both parties, with a slight Democratic advantage. Independents are about evenly split, with 30% saying they prefer neither party for Congress. These results are shown in Table 18.

Table 18: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the Republican candidate in your district? (Among registered voters)

Party ID	Democratic candidate	Republican candidate	Neither
Total	47	41	12
Republican	5	93	2
Independent	37	33	30
Democrat	96	2	2

Favorability of public figures

Table 19 shows favorability ratings of several public figures. With the exception of Anthony Fauci, all have net negative favorability ratings.

Table 19: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Person	Net favorable	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Donald Trump	-30	34	64	2
Gavin Newsom	-19	18	37	46
Mike Pence	-17	33	50	17
Ron DeSantis	-12	27	39	34
Joe Biden	-11	43	54	3
Pete Buttigieg	-7	26	33	42
Liz Cheney	-6	30	36	33
Anthony Fauci	2	44	42	13

About the Marquette Law School Poll The survey was conducted Sept 7-14, 2022, interviewing 1,448 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. For the 1,282 registered voters, the margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.