MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin finds slight change in voting preferences or attitudes in the wake of shootings and protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in late August.

In early September, Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden is the choice of 47 percent of likely voters and Republican President Donald Trump is supported by 43 percent. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen is the choice of 4 percent, while 7 percent say they would vote for none of these candidates, didn’t know how they would vote or declined to say.

In August, before the events in Kenosha, Biden was supported by 49 percent and Trump by 44 percent, with 6 percent not choosing either. Jorgensen was not included in the August poll. In June among likely voters, Biden had 50 percent and Trump 44 percent, with 6 percent not choosing either.

Other findings from the new poll include:

• Approval of Black Lives Matter protests barely changed following the Kenosha events.
• Approval of President Trump’s response to protests rose following his visit to Kenosha among Republicans but shifted only slightly among other voters.
• Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval has fallen to pre-coronavirus levels after a period of increased approval.
• Parents of school-age children have grown more uncomfortable with reopening schools.
• While two-thirds of respondents say they would definitely or probably get a vaccine for COVID-19, a third say they would probably or definitely not get vaccinated.

The poll was conducted from Aug. 30 to Sept. 3, 2020. The sample included 802 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. There are 688 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

Table 1 shows the trend in the presidential vote among likely voters from May through September. Table 2 shows the trend in preferences among all registered voters over the same period. Jorgensen was not included before this September poll. (Note: Likely voters are those who say they are certain to vote in November. Registered voters refer to all respondents who are registered to vote or who say they will register by the election. Tables below are based on registered voters unless “likely voters” is indicated in the heading.)

Table 1: Vote among likely voters, May–September 2020

Poll Dates	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Jo Jorgensen	None/other (VOL)	Don’t know	Refused	n
5/3-7/20	49	45	NA	3	2	1	650
6/14-18/20	50	44	NA	3	2	1	686
8/4-9/20	49	44	NA	3	2	1	675
8/30-9/3/20	47	43	4	2	3	2	688

Table 2: Vote among registered voters, May–September 2020

Poll Dates	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Jo Jorgensen	None/other (VOL)	Don’t know	Refused	n
5/3-7/20	46	43	NA	4	4	2	811
6/14-18/20	49	41	NA	5	3	2	805
8/4-9/20	48	42	NA	6	3	1	801
8/30-9/3/20	46	40	5	3	5	2	802

Views of protests, BLM, and police after Kenosha

Approval of protests over police shootings of Black Americans declined among registered voters from June to early August, prior to events in Kenosha, but barely moved following the Kenosha shootings and protests, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Approval of protests against police shootings, June–September 2020

Poll Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	n
6/14-18/20	61	36	2	805
8/4-9/20	48	48	3	801
8/30-9/3/20	47	48	4	802

Favorable views of the Black Lives Matter movement also declined from June to August, but did not change further in September, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Favorable or unfavorable view of Black Lives Matter movement, June–September 2020

Poll Dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
6/14-18/20	59	27	6	5	805
8/4-9/20	49	37	10	5	801
8/30-9/3/20	49	37	8	5	802

There were small changes in favorable and unfavorable views of the police from June to September, shown in Table 5. Favorable views rose slightly, from 72 percent in June to 76 percent in August, falling to 73 percent in September. Unfavorable views of the police were 18 percent in June, 13 percent in August and 18 percent in September.

Table 5: Favorable or unfavorable view of the police, June–September 2020

Poll Dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
6/14-18/20	72	18	3	5	805
8/4-9/20	76	13	5	6	801
8/30-9/3/20	73	18	5	4	802

Approval of Trump’s handling of protests

Approval of Trump’s handling of protests rose in September to 36 percent from 32 percent in August, while disapproval declined from 58 percent in August to 54 percent in September. Table 6 shows the trend in approval since June.

Table 6: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of protests, June–September 2020

Poll Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	n
6/14-18/20	30	58	11	805
8/4-9/20	32	58	9	801
8/30-9/3/20	36	54	8	802

Trump’s visit to Kenosha occurred during the field period of the poll, with 441 respondents interviewed before his visit, on Sunday and Monday, Aug. 30-31, and 361 interviewed on Tuesday-Thursday, Sept. 1-3, following the visit. Tuesday interviews were conducted in the evening after the conclusion of the president’s visit.

Approval of Trump’s handling of protests rose slightly following his visit to Kenosha, although the difference is not statistically significant, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of protests, pre- and post-Trump Kenosha visit, September 2020

Pre-Post Trump visit	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	n
Pre Trump visit	34	54	9	441
Post Trump visit	38	53	7	361

Reactions to Trump’s visit varied by party. Republicans were more approving of Trump’s response to protests after his visit, and to a statistically significant degree. Independents and Democrats, by contrast, barely budged following his visit. These results are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of protests, pre- and post-Trump Kenosha visit by party identification, September 2020

Pre-Post Trump visit	Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	n
Pre Trump visit	Republican	65	20	13	134
Post Trump visit	Republican	87	6	6	104
Pre Trump visit	Independent	28	59	9	186
Post Trump visit	Independent	31	62	6	141
Pre Trump visit	Democrat	5	90	5	111
Post Trump visit	Democrat	4	88	8	113

Views of Trump, Biden, Pence and Harris

Favorable and unfavorable views of the presidential candidates have been stable in recent months. Trump has held a 42 percent favorable rating since June, with 54 or 55 percent unfavorable, while Biden’s favorable rating has varied between 42 and 45 percent since May, with 46-48 percent giving him an unfavorable rating. Trump’s net favorable rating has been lower in the last three months than in the winter and spring, while Biden’s net favorability rating was lower in the winter than it has been since March. The full trends are shown in Tables 9 and 10.

Table 9: Favorable or unfavorable view of Trump, January–September 2020

Poll Dates	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
1/8-12/20	-5	46	51	0	1	800
2/19-23/20	-5	45	50	3	2	1000
3/24-29/20	-5	45	50	2	3	813
5/3-7/20	-7	44	51	2	2	811
6/14-18/20	-12	42	54	2	2	805
8/4-9/20	-13	42	55	2	1	801
8/30-9/3/20	-12	42	54	2	1	802

Table 10: Favorable or unfavorable view of Biden, January–September 2020

Poll Dates	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
1/8-12/20	-5	41	46	8	4	800
2/19-23/20	-19	34	53	8	4	1000
3/24-29/20	-11	39	50	7	4	813
5/3-7/20	-4	42	46	7	4	811
6/14-18/20	-2	44	46	7	2	805
8/4-9/20	-5	43	48	7	2	801
8/30-9/3/20	-2	45	47	6	1	802

The vice-presidential candidates are less familiar to respondents, with 15 percent unable to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Republican Vice President Mike Pence and 24 percent unable to give an opinion of Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris.

Table 11 shows favorable and unfavorable ratings for Pence. The Marquette Law School Poll has asked about Pence only twice since 2017. Table 12 shows favorability ratings for Harris since August 2019, when she was a candidate in the Democratic presidential primaries.

Table 11: Favorable or unfavorable view of Pence, 2017–2020

Poll Dates	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
6/22-25/17	2	37	35	26	3	800
8/30-9/3/20	-7	39	46	12	3	802

Table 12: Favorable or unfavorable view of Harris, August 2019–September 2020

Poll Dates	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
8/25-29/19	-14	20	34	35	10	800
10/13-17/19	-8	24	32	33	11	799
8/30-9/3/20	1	38	37	20	4	802

Trump and Biden: Do they care about people like you?

Tables 13 and 14 show the perception that Trump and Biden “cares about people like me,” measured in June, and again in September. There has been little movement in how either candidate is viewed following the party conventions in August, with a majority saying “cares about people like me” does not describe Trump and a slight plurality saying the phrase does describe Biden.

Table 13: Does “cares about people like me” describe Trump, June–September 2020

Poll Dates	Describes	Does not describe	Don’t know	n
6/14-18/20	39	57	3	805
8/30-9/3/20	41	56	3	802

Table 14: Does “cares about people like me” describe Biden, June–September 2020

Poll Dates	Describes him	Does not describe him	Don’t know	n
6/14-18/20	46	42	10	805
8/30-9/3/20	48	45	5	802

Trump job approval

Approval of how Trump is handling his job as president in polls since May is shown in Table 15. As of September, 44 percent approve and 54 percent disapprove, the same as his approval rating in August.

Table 15: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of his job as president, May–September 2020

Poll Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	n
5/3-7/20	47	49	3	811
6/14-18/20	45	51	3	805
8/4-9/20	44	54	2	801
8/30-9/3/20	44	54	2	802

Trump’s handling of the economy

Handling of the economy remains Trump’s strongest area of approval. The September poll shows a one-point increase in approval and a two-point decline in disapproval, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, May–September 2020

Poll Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	n
5/3-7/20	54	40	4	811
6/14-18/20	50	46	3	805
8/4-9/20	51	46	3	801
8/30-9/3/20	52	44	2	802

Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic

After an initial approval rating in March of over 50 percent for Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, approval has fallen to 41 percent in September. That figure improved one point from August. Disapproval stands at 56 percent in September, two points less than a month earlier. The full trend is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, March–September 2020

Poll Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	n
3/24-29/20	51	46	2	813
5/3-7/20	44	51	3	811
6/14-18/20	44	52	3	805
8/4-9/20	40	58	2	801
8/30-9/3/20	41	56	2	802

Approval of Evers’ job performance and handling of coronavirus

After six months of elevated approval ratings, approval of Gov. Tony Evers’ handling of his job fell in September, back to pre-coronavirus levels. In September, 51 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove of Evers’ job performance. In August, 57 percent approved and 37 percent disapproved. The trend in overall approval of Evers in 2020 is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Evers’ job approval, January–September 2020

Poll Dates	Approve	Disapprove
1/8-12/20	51	40
2/19-23/20	51	38
3/24-29/20	65	29
5/3-7/20	59	33
6/14-18/20	54	38
8/4-9/20	57	37
8/30-9/3/20	51	43

Evaluation of Evers’ handling of the coronavirus issue is 57 percent approve and 38 percent disapprove. In August, 61 percent approved and 35 percent disapproved. The trend in approval is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Approval of Evers’ handling of the coronavirus outbreak, March–September 2020

Poll Dates	Approve	Disapprove
3/24-29/20	76	17
5/3-7/20	64	32
6/14-18/20	58	37
8/4-9/20	61	35
8/30-9/3/20	57	38

Attitudes concerning COVID

Table 20 shows the level of worry about being personally affected by the coronavirus outbreak since March. After the percentage “very worried” rose in August, it declined in September, while those not at all worried did not change.

Table 20: How worried are you about being affected by coronavirus, March–September 2020

Poll Dates	Very worried	Somewhat worried	Not very worried	Not worried at all	Already had COVID-19 (VOL)	Don’t know	n
3/24-29/20	30	40	18	11	0	0	813
5/3-7/20	25	35	20	19	0	0	811
6/14-18/20	19	36	21	24	1	1	805
8/4-9/20	27	36	17	19	1	0	801
8/30-9/3/20	21	39	19	19	1	0	802

Feelings about reopening schools

There has been a decline since June in the percentage comfortable with reopening schools, including a small decline from early August to September. Those uncomfortable with reopening is above 50 percent for the first time, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Comfortable or uncomfortable with reopening schools, June–September 2020

Poll Dates	Comfortable doing this	Uncomfortable doing this	Don’t know	n
6/14-18/20	54	38	8	805
8/4-9/20	45	48	6	801
8/30-9/3/20	43	51	6	802

Those with school-age children have become more uncomfortable with reopening schools. In early August, among those with such children, 53 percent were comfortable and 45 percent uncomfortable. But, by September, 44 percent were comfortable and 54 percent were uncomfortable. Those without school-age children did not change their feelings about reopening schools. These results are shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Comfortable or uncomfortable about reopening schools, by school-age children in home, August–September 2020

School-age children?	Poll Dates	Comfortable doing this	Uncomfortable doing this	Don’t know	n
No school-age children	8/4-9/20	42	50	7	554
No school-age children	8/30-9/3/20	42	49	8	548
Has school-age children	8/4-9/20	53	45	2	242
Has school-age children	8/30-9/3/20	44	54	2	243

Acceptance of a COVID vaccine when available

While the world pharmaceutical companies have raced for a vaccine against COVID, some people say they are not likely to be vaccinated. Thirty-five percent in the September poll say they would definitely get vaccinated and another 29 percent would probably get the vaccine. However, 15 percent say they would probably not get vaccinated, and 18 percent would definitely not get the vaccine.

Table 23 shows likelihood of getting the vaccine by age, and Table 24 shows it by partisanship. Older people are more likely to get the vaccine than those 30 to 59, though those under 30 are also a bit more likely to say they will definitely get vaccinated.

Among partisans, Republicans are about equally divided between definitely or likely to get vaccinated and definitely or likely not to get the vaccine. Democrats and independents are much more receptive to the vaccine.

Table 23: Get COVID vaccine, by age, September 2020

Age	Definitely get	Probably get	Probably not get	Definitely not get	Don’t know	Refused	n
18-29	35	26	19	20	0	0	119
30-44	30	27	16	24	1	1	177
45-59	28	29	19	20	2	2	194
60+	44	31	9	11	4	0	308

Table 24: Get COVID vaccine, by party identification, September 2020

Party ID	Definitely get	Probably get	Probably not get	Definitely not get	Don’t know	Refused	n
Republican	31	23	19	24	2	0	238
Lean Republican	28	27	17	26	1	0	119
Independent	22	34	23	13	5	3	67
Lean Democrat	41	36	12	8	2	1	141
Democrat	45	31	9	13	3	0	224

Choice of ballot type in November

There has been a decline in the percentage of people planning to vote by absentee ballot by mail, together with a rise in those planning to vote in person on Election Day. Table 25 shows the trend since May.

Table 25: Ballot type, May–September 2020

Poll Dates	Election day, in person	Early, in person	Absentee by mail	Probably/might not vote	Don’t know	n
5/3-7/20	39	11	43	2	4	811
8/4-9/20	46	12	35	3	3	801
8/30-9/3/20	50	14	32	2	2	802

A majority of Republicans say they plan to vote in person on election day, as opposed to absentee by mail (or early, in person), while most Democrats are likely to prefer absentee by mail, as opposed to any other particular option, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Ballot type by party identification, September 2020

Party ID	Election day, in person	Early, in person	Absentee by mail	Probably/might not vote	Don’t know	n
Republican	69	11	18	1	1	357
Independent	41	18	29	8	3	67
Democrat	34	16	47	2	1	365

There have been changes in the preferred type of ballot since May, with a smaller percentage in each partisan category choosing absentee by mail, though large partisan differences persist, as shown in Table 27.

May was the high-water mark for people saying they would vote absentee by mail among all partisan categories. Democrats have become less likely to choose absentee by mail in each subsequent poll, and more likely to say they will either vote in person on election day or during early voting, although, as stated, absentee by mail is their single most popular choice. Intentions of Republicans and independents have been relatively stable in August and September.

Table 27: Ballot type by party identification, by poll date

Party ID	Poll Dates	Election day, in person	Early, in person	Absentee by mail	Probably/might not vote	Don’t know	n
Republican	5/3-7/20	59	13	25	1	2	353
Republican	8/4-9/20	67	12	15	3	3	359
Republican	8/30-9/3/20	69	11	18	1	1	357
Independent	5/3-7/20	30	15	43	5	6	74
Independent	8/4-9/20	39	15	27	13	5	71
Independent	8/30-9/3/20	41	18	29	8	3	67
Democrat	5/3-7/20	21	9	62	3	5	367
Democrat	8/4-9/20	27	12	55	2	3	363
Democrat	8/30-9/3/20	34	16	47	2	1	365

The shift in partisan preferences for each ballot type has also reduced, but far from eliminated, expected differences in vote by ballot type, as shown in Table 28 among likely voters. The election day in-person vote still favors Trump, but by less than in May or August. Meanwhile, the early in-person ballots have shifted from favoring Trump in May to favoring Biden in September. The absentee-by-mail ballots are heavily for Biden, but by less than in August, and slightly less than in May.

Table 28: Vote by ballot type by poll date, among likely voters, May–September 2020

Ballot type	Poll Dates	Biden	Trump	Other/DK/Ref	n
Election day, in person	5/3-7/20	26	68	6	256
Election day, in person	8/4-9/20	26	67	7	332
Election day, in person	8/30-9/3/20	33	58	9	356
Early, in person	5/3-7/20	36	53	11	76
Early, in person	8/4-9/20	50	45	5	80
Early, in person	8/30-9/3/20	53	35	12	97
Absentee by mail	5/3-7/20	72	23	5	299
Absentee by mail	8/4-9/20	81	14	5	241
Absentee by mail	8/30-9/3/20	68	22	10	222

Potential sources of change in the vote

Three sources of potential change in the election outlook are (1) undecided voters who might disproportionately favor a candidate later; (2) the possibility that those less likely to vote may in fact decide to vote; and (3) new voters coming into the electorate who might vote differently than those who have been registered before.

We look at these possibilities below.

1. How do the undecided lean?

Among all registered voters interviewed since June, 11 percent have said they would vote for someone other than Trump or Biden, are undecided, or declined to give a choice. Pooling all three polls to include enough cases for analysis, we find that when asked, “Would you say you lean toward Biden or toward Trump?” 26 percent chose Biden and 19 percent chose Trump. In September, when Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate, was included, 4 percent chose her.

Table 29 shows the vote among likely voters by poll wave since June, including those who are undecided, but lean to a candidate. The effect of including the “leaned” vote is small, leaving the September margin between Biden and Trump unchanged.

Table 29: Vote among likely voters including “leaned” vote choice, June–September 2020

Poll Dates	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Jo Jorgensen	None/other (VOL)	Refused	n
6/14-18/20	52	44	NA	2	1	686
8/4-9/20	50	46	NA	2	1	675
8/30-9/3/20	48	44	4	0	2	688

2. What about less likely voters?

There is always the potential for people to vote who have not in the past, either because of greater motivation this election or by new registrations to vote. How do these “less likely” voters compare to their “likely” or previously registered counterparts?

Table 30 compares likely voters (those who say they are certain to vote) with those who are not as likely to vote (those who say they are less than certain to vote). Polls from May through September are combined to provide sufficient sample size for analysis.

A much higher percentage of those less likely to vote (than of likely voters) say they are undecided or prefer someone other than Biden or Trump. Among the less likely to vote, Biden has a 9-point advantage over Trump, compared to a 5-point advantage among likely voters in this pooled May–September sample.

Table 30: Vote comparing likely with less-likely voters, May–September 2020

Likely/Unlikely voter	Biden	Trump	Other/DK/Ref	n
Likely	49	44	7	2699
Less likely	40	31	29	520

Table 31 shows the vote by the full range of certainty of voting as reported by the respondent, again pooling all polls from May through September. The percentage undecided rises as the chance of voting goes down.

Biden maintains a lead over Trump with those who say they are not certain to vote but are very likely to do so. However, the vote is tied simply among those who say they have only a 50-50 chance of voting. Biden’s advantage returns among those who say they will not vote.

Table 31: Vote by certainty of voting, May–September 2020

Certainty of voting	Biden	Trump	Other/DK/Ref	n
Absolutely certain	49	44	7	2699
Very likely	45	35	20	302
50-50	30	30	40	147
Will not vote	38	14	47	57

3. New registrants

The Marquette Law School Poll samples people who say they are currently registered to vote and those who say they are not registered but plan to register by election day, terming them all as “registered voters.” This latter group provides a look at potential “new voters.” Once more, polls from May through September are pooled to provide adequate sample size.

Table 32 shows little difference in vote preferences between those who say they will register and those who are already registered, with Biden leading by 5 points among those who say they will register and by 6 points among those who are already registered.

Table 32: Vote comparing new registrants with previously registered voters, May–September 2020

Registered or will register	Biden	Trump	Other/DK/Ref	n
Registered	48	42	10	2989
Will register	44	39	17	230

Views of the economy, past and future

Views of the direction of the economy have turned sharply down since February with many more people saying the economy has gotten worse over the past year. There was an upturn in September.

Respondents have a strongly positive outlook for the economy over the next 12 months, and a more positive outlook in September than in August. Tables 33 and 34 show the recent trends in these measures.

Table 33: Change in economy over past 12 months, January–September 2020

Poll Dates	Gotten better	Gotten worse	Stayed the same	Don’t know	Net
1/8-12/20	48	17	33	2	31
2/19-23/20	47	15	36	2	32
3/24-29/20	41	31	25	3	10
5/3-7/20	28	46	20	4	-18
6/14-18/20	27	50	19	4	-23
8/4-9/20	22	56	19	3	-34
8/30-9/3/20	25	51	19	3	-26

Table 34: Outlook for the economy over the next 12 months, January–September 2020

Poll Dates	Get better	Get worse	Stay the same	Don’t know	Net
1/8-12/20	33	23	37	6	10
2/19-23/20	36	21	37	7	15
3/24-29/20	44	34	13	8	10
5/3-7/20	45	31	16	7	14
6/14-18/20	50	19	24	6	31
8/4-9/20	45	23	21	11	21
8/30-9/3/20	48	18	21	13	30

Views of state officials

Tables 35-37 present the recent favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

Table 35: Gov. Tony Evers recent favorability trend, January–September 2020

Poll Dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/8-12/20	45	37	14	3
2/19-23/20	43	40	12	4
3/24-29/20	54	28	11	6
5/3-7/20	50	36	7	5
6/14-18/20	54	37	7	2
8/4-9/20	52	35	9	4
8/30-9/3/20	47	41	9	2

Table 36: Sen. Tammy Baldwin recent favorability trend, January–September 2020

Poll Dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/8-12/20	44	40	13	2
2/19-23/20	43	40	13	3
3/24-29/20	40	39	16	4
5/3-7/20	45	37	14	3
6/14-18/20	40	38	19	3
8/4-9/20	43	36	17	3
8/30-9/3/20	42	35	19	3

Table 37: Sen. Ron Johnson recent favorability trend, January-September 2020

Poll Dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/8-12/20	39	29	28	3
2/19-23/20	37	34	24	5
3/24-29/20	35	32	29	4
5/3-7/20	38	34	23	5
6/14-18/20	35	32	29	3
8/4-9/20	33	35	27	4
8/30-9/3/20	32	36	28	5

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from Aug. 30 to Sept. 3, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points for the full sample. There are 688 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 44 percent Republican, 45 percent Democratic and 8 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30 percent Republican, 28 percent Democratic and 41 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent. The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

[Click here to download a pdf file of the press release.]

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden with 49 percent support and Republican incumbent Donald Trump with 41 percent. Ten percent say that they would vote for neither, don’t know how they would vote or declined to say.

In May, Biden was supported by 46 percent of voters and Trump by 43 percent, with 10 percent not choosing either.

The poll was conducted June 14-18, 2020. The sample included 805 registered voters in Wisconsin, who were interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

The trend in the presidential vote since January is shown in Table 1. The June poll is the largest Biden margin in Marquette polls in 2020. The closest matchup was in February, with Biden and Trump tied at 46 percent.

In the new poll, Trump’s overall job approval declined to 45 percent, with 51 percent disapproval, which compares to May when 47 percent approved and 49 percent disapproved. His job approval during 2020 is shown in Table 2. Trump’s approval was last this low in August 2019, when approval was 45 percent and disapproval was 53 percent.

Approval of Trump’s handling of specific issues varies considerably, even though his overall approval has stayed in a narrow 41 to 48 percent range during his presidency.

Approval is lowest for Trump’s handling of protests over the death of George Floyd in police custody. Thirty percent approve of Trump’s handing of the protests, and 58 percent disapprove. Eleven percent say they don’t know.

Approval of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak is 44 percent, and disapproval is 52 percent, with 3 percent who don’t know. In May, 44 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved.

Trump receives the strongest support for his handling of the economy, with 50 percent approval, 46 percent disapproval and 3 percent who don’t know. In May, 54 percent approved and 40 percent disapproved of his economic policies.

Support for Trump declined among Republicans in June, while opposition grew among independents. Support slightly increased among independents who lean Republican, and slightly decreased among independents who lean Democratic and Democrats, as shown in Tables 3 and 4.

In May, Trump led Biden among Republicans 93 percent to 1 percent. In June, his lead over Biden was 83 percent to 8 percent among Republicans.

Independents had preferred Trump over Biden in May by 34 percent to 27 percent. That preference reversed in June, with Biden supported by 38 percent to Trump’s 30 percent.

Similar shifts, since May, in Trump’s job approval by party identification are shown in Tables 5 and 6, where approval slipped among Republicans and reversed among independents. In May, 50 percent of independents said that they approved of Trump’s job performance and 36 percent disapproved. In June, that shifted to 36 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval. Approval among Democrats and independents who lean Democrat, both already very low, declined slightly. Only independents who lean Republican saw slight increases in approval.

Views of the candidates

Thirty-nine percent say “cares about people like me” describes Trump, while 57 percent say this does not describe Trump. Forty-six percent say this phrase describes Biden, and 42 percent say it does not describe him.

Trump is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 54 percent of respondents, while Biden is seen favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent. The trends in favorability for each candidate are shown in Tables 9 and 10.

Views on race and police

The death of George Floyd in police custody in Minneapolis sparked nationwide protests and a renewed debate over police tactics and policy. In Wisconsin, views of these issues vary, and there are substantial differences in perception by race.

Sixty-one percent approve of the mass protests since the death of George Floyd, while 36 percent disapprove. Among Black respondents, 74 percent approve and 24 percent disapprove. Eighty-one percent of Hispanic respondents approve and 13 percent disapprove, while 59 percent of white respondents approve and 38 percent disapprove of the protests.

Police are viewed favorably by 72 percent and unfavorably by 18 percent. The Black Lives Matter movement is seen favorably by 59 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent.

There is a large gap in the perceptions of the police between white and Black Wisconsinites. Among white respondents, 76 percent have a favorable view of the police, and 15 percent have an unfavorable view. In sharp contrast, among Black respondents, the police are viewed favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 49 percent. Among Hispanic respondents, views fall in between those of whites and Blacks, with 50 percent favorable and 38 percent unfavorable.

Views of the Black Lives Matter movement are highly positive among Black and Hispanic respondents, with a smaller majority of white respondents also holding a favorable view. Among Black respondents, 81 percent have a favorable view and 10 percent an unfavorable view. Among Hispanic respondents, 73 percent have favorable and 6 percent have unfavorable views of the Black Lives Matter movement. Among white respondents, 57 percent have a favorable and 29 percent have an unfavorable view.

The experience of encountering police is also strikingly different across racial groups. Overall, 86 percent say the police make them feel mostly safe, while 11 percent say police make them feel mostly anxious. Among Black respondents, 43 percent feel mostly safe and 44 percent feel mostly anxious about the police. White respondents feel little anxiety, with 90 percent feeling mostly safe and 8 percent feeling mostly anxious. Among Hispanic respondents, 72 percent feel mostly safe and 28 percent feel mostly anxious about the police.

Large differences across race emerge in views of the police use of force, both in general and in light of the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer.

Forty-two percent say the police in general are too willing to use deadly force, while 51 percent say they are not. Among Black respondents, 68 percent say the police are too willing to use deadly force and 25 percent say they are not, while among white respondents, 38 percent say police are too willing and 54 percent say they are not. Among Hispanic respondents, 71 percent say police are too willing and 29 percent say they are not too willing to use deadly force.

Recent killings of Black Americans by the police are seen as isolated incidents by 44 percent of respondents and are seen as part of a larger pattern of how police treat Black Americans by 48 percent. Among Black respondents, 8 percent say these killings are isolated, while 86 percent say they represent a broader pattern. Among white respondents, 47 percent say these are isolated incidents, and 44 percent say they are part of a broader issue. Twenty-six percent of Hispanic respondents say these are isolated incidents, and 72 percent see a broader pattern.

Views of what to do about the police depend heavily on how the question is worded. “Calls to defund the police” are supported by 23 percent and opposed by 70 percent. In sharp contrast, when asked about “calls to restructure the role of the police and require greater accountability for police misconduct,” 81 percent support such changes, while 16 percent oppose this.

Among Black respondents, “defund the police” is supported by 45 percent and opposed by 41 percent. Among white respondents, 20 percent support and 73 percent oppose “defund the police.” Support for “defund” is 57 percent among Hispanic respondents and opposition is 36 percent.

There are much smaller differences across racial groups on the calls to “restructure” the police. Eighty-three percent of Black respondents support “restructure,” with 13 percent opposed. Among white respondents, 80 percent support and 17 percent oppose “restructure.” Support for “restructure” among Hispanic respondents is 97 percent, with none opposed.

Among all respondents, racial prejudice against Black people is seen as a very serious problem by 41 percent, as somewhat serious by 37 percent and as not serious or not a problem by 19 percent. Black and Hispanic respondents see a much more serious problem than do white respondents. Eighty-eight percent of Black respondents see prejudice as a very serious problem, as do 66 percent of Hispanic respondents, while 37 percent of white respondents say this is a very serious problem. Five percent of Black respondents say prejudice against Black people is little or no problem, as do 12 percent of Hispanic respondents while 21 percent of white respondents see little or no problem. The full crosstab of views of prejudice by race is shown in Table 11.

Coronavirus epidemic and impact

Worry over personal risk from COVID-19 has declined each month since March. In the June poll, 19 percent say they are very worried about COVID-19 and 36 percent are somewhat worried, while 21 percent are not very worried and 24 percent say they are not at all worried. In May, 25 percent were very worried, 35 percent somewhat worried, 20 percent not very worried and 19 percent not at all worried. The full trend since March is shown in Table 12.

In the June survey, 72 percent say that it was appropriate to close schools and businesses and restrict public gatherings, while 25 percent say this was an overreaction to the pandemic. In May, 69 percent said closures were appropriate and 26 percent said this was an overreaction, while in March, 86 percent said closures were appropriate and 10 percent said this was an overreaction,

Approval of Gov. Tony Evers’ handling of the coronavirus issue has also declined, with 58 percent who approve and 37 percent who disapprove. In May, 64 percent approved and 32 percent disapproved, while in March, 76 percent approved and 17 percent disapproved.

While concern over the virus and support for policies to reduce the spread of the disease have declined over the last three months, Wisconsin voters nonetheless now expect a much longer epidemic than they had once anticipated. Twelve percent say the coronavirus outbreak is now under control, 10 percent say it will be under control by the end of August and 16 percent say it will be under control sometime next fall. Forty percent say it will take about a year and 13 percent say it will take more than a year to control the epidemic. In March, many more, 44 percent, thought the epidemic would be under control by the end of May and 27 percent said by the end of August. At that time, 11 percent said the epidemic would be under control sometime next fall, while 7 percent thought it would take about a year and 2 percent said more than a year.

Views on reopening

There is considerable variation in what activities people say they are comfortable doing now that the Safer at Home order is no longer applicable.

With the new school year on the horizon, 54 percent say they are comfortable with letting students return to school in the fall, while 38 percent are uncomfortable with reopening schools.

A substantial 83 percent say they would be comfortable visiting a friend or family member’s home, while 16 percent would not be comfortable doing this.

Sixty-five percent say they would be comfortable shopping at a mall or large retail store such as Target or Walmart, although 34 percent would not be comfortable shopping.

Eating out at a restaurant is something 49 percent are comfortable with, while 49 percent are not comfortable with that.

Most people are uncomfortable with attending sports events such as baseball, basketball or football, a concert or a play: 33 percent are comfortable and 65 percent are uncomfortable attending large gatherings of this kind.

Looking to the national party conventions in August, including the Democratic convention in Milwaukee, 39 percent say both conventions should meet in-person, while 53 percent say they should not be held as in-person events.

Economic impact

Reported job loss is slightly lower in the June poll than in the May survey, with 13 percent saying they have lost a job. Twenty-seven percent say someone in their family, other than themselves, has suffered a job loss. In May, 15 percent reported having lost a job, with 33 percent saying someone else in their family had lost a job. Table 13 shows the trend in job loss.

Work hours have been reduced for 24 percent of respondents. Forty percent say some other family member has had work hours reduced. These results are little changed since March, as shown in Table 14.

Twelve percent say they have applied for unemployment insurance, and 30 percent say this has happened to some other family member. This question was not asked in earlier surveys.

Views of the direction of the economy have turned sharply down, with many more people saying the economy has gotten worse over the past year, although the outlook for the next 12 months has become substantially more positive since May. Tables 15 and 16 show the recent trends in these measures.

While many respondents have lost jobs or had working hours cut, there has not been a surge in reports of financial distress. However, those who have lost jobs or had family members lose jobs report substantially higher levels of financial insecurity, as shown in Tables 17 and 18.

Those who have had work hours reduced also report less financial security than those who have not had hours reduced. This result is shown in Table 19.

Black respondents have been especially hard hit by the economic consequences of the pandemic. Compiling the March, May, and June polling, 29 percent have lost a job, and 43 percent have had a family member other than themselves lose a job.

These job losses have pushed the financial situation of Black respondents into greater insecurity. In January and February, 41 percent of Black respondents said they were living comfortably, 48 percent said they were just getting by and 10 percent said they were struggling. In the combined March through June data, the percentage living comfortably was only a little lower, 37 percent, but those just getting by fell to 40 percent and those struggling rose to 22 percent.

Black people in Wisconsin have also suffered disproportionately high COVID-19 infection and death rates, compared to other groups, and this is reflected in higher worry about being affected by the disease. Among Black respondents in the combined March through June data, 44 percent are very worried about the consequences of being infected with COVID-19, while among white respondents, 23 percent are very worried. Hispanic respondents fall between the two groups, with 33 percent very worried.

Views of state officials

Job approval for Evers stands at 54 percent, with disapproval at 38 percent. Six percent say they don’t have an opinion. In May, 59 percent approved and 33 percent disapproved.

The recent trend in job approval of the governor is shown in Table 20.

Tables 21-23 present the recent favorability ratings of Evers, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 805 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from June 14-18, 2020. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 44 percent Democratic, and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 31 percent Republican, 29 percent Democratic, and 39 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.