New Marquette Law School Poll finds Trump and DeSantis drawing similar support, but each trailing Biden in possible 2024 presidential matchups; election confidence, COVID topics also surveyed

MILWAUKEE —A Marquette Law School Poll survey of adults nationwide finds that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump run equally well against Democratic President Joe Biden in hypothetical 2024 matchups, although Biden leads both Republicans.

In a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis is supported by 33%, while Biden is supported by 41%. A substantial 18% say they would support someone else, and 8% say they would not vote. In a Trump versus Biden rematch, Trump receives 33% to Biden’s 43%, with 16% preferring someone else and 6% saying they would not vote.

The survey was conducted Jan. 10-21, 2022, interviewing 1000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

While the election is substantially into the future, these results show that while Trump remains popular among Republican voters, another GOP candidate performs at least as well against Biden. There are similar patterns of support for both Republicans by party identification, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. In both pairings against Biden, there are significant percentages of all partisan categories saying they prefer someone else, not in the pairing, or wouldn’t vote. This is especially pronounced among independents.

Table 1: DeSantis vs. Biden, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDRon DeSantisJoe BidenSomeone elseWouldn’t vote
Republican814113
Lean Republican732195
Independent19233225
Lean Democrat471205
Democrat182134

Table 2: Trump vs. Biden, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDDonald TrumpJoe BidenSomeone elseWouldn’t vote
Republican776161
Lean Republican754192
Independent28262322
Lean Democrat474193
Democrat184114

A majority of Republicans, 63%, would like to see Trump run for president in 2024, whereas 37% do not want him to run. Among independents who lean Republican, 51% would like Trump to run and 49% would prefer he not run. Very few Democrats wish him to run. Among all adults in the survey, 29% would like Trump to seek the presidency again, while 71% do not want him to attempt a return to office. The full results by party are in Table 3.

Table 3: Like to see Trump run in 2024, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDYesNo
Republican6337
Lean Republican5149
Independent3167
Lean Democrat595
Democrat397

Favorability to DeSantis, Trump and Pence

DeSantis is much less well known than Trump. For DeSantis, 44% of all respondents say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion, while 22% have a favorable view and 34% have an unfavorable opinion. For Trump, only 1% lack an opinion, whereas 32% hold a favorable view and 67% view him unfavorably.

Former Vice President Mike Pence is better known than DeSantis, with just 17% saying they don’t know enough about him, while 28% have a favorable view and 55% have an unfavorable view.

Favorability toward DeSantis, Trump, and Pence differs dramatically by party, as shown in Tables 4, 5, and 6.

Table 4: DeSantis favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican521138
Lean Republican541234
Independent62864
Lean Democrat45046
Democrat45640

Table 5: Trump favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican74251
Lean Republican66340
Independent26684
Lean Democrat2980
Democrat4951

Table 6: Pence favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican593110
Lean Republican453618
Independent174338
Lean Democrat97614
Democrat127712

Republicans remain doubtful of the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican combined, 27% are very or somewhat confident that the votes were accurately cast and counted, while 73% are not too confident or not at all confident in the accuracy of the election vote totals. The divide is sharply partisan, as shown in Table 7, with over 90% of Democrats and of Democratic leaning independents confident in the election and 60% of independents with no partisan leaning expressing confidence in the election result.

Table 7: Confidence in accuracy of the 2020 election, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDConfidentNot confident
Republican2773
Lean Republican2971
Independent6039
Lean Democrat955
Democrat982

Favorability to Trump, Pence, and DeSantis varies among Republicans depending on their confidence in the election. Views of Trump are most strongly associated with election confidence as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Trump favorability, by confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, Jan. 2022

Confident in 2020 electionFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Confident29691
Not confident88111

Favorability toward Pence is not linked to election confidence, unlike Trump. Table 9 shows Pence favorability by confidence in the election among Republicans and those who lean Republican.

Table 9: Pence favorability, by confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, Jan. 2022

Confident in 2020 electionFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Confident543313
Not confident553212

As with Trump but unlike the case with Pence, favorability to DeSantis is strongly associated with confidence in the election, although a high percentage of those Republicans and Republican leaners who are confident in the election say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion of DeSantis. Table 10 shows favorability for DeSantis by election confidence.

Table 10: DeSantis favorability, by confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, Jan. 2022

Confident in 2020 electionFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Confident252748
Not confident62533

Biden approval rating

Biden’s job approval rating has declined since July. In January, 46% approved and 53% disapproved of how he is handling his job as president, down from 58% approval and 42% disapproval in July. The trend in Biden’s approval rating is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Approve or disapprove of Biden’s handling of his job, July 2021-January 2022

Poll datesApproveDisapprove
7/16-26/215842
9/7-16/214852
11/1-10/214951
1/10-21/224653

Biden’s approval has fallen substantially among independents and Democrats, while it has fluctuated below 20% among Republicans. Approval among independents fell from July to September and has remained some 15 points below the July level. Among Democrats, approval declined from July to September, declined again in November, and is unchanged in January. Table 12 shows the trend in approval by party.

Table 12: Approve or disapprove of Biden’s handling of his job, by party identification, July-Nov. 2021

Party IDPoll datesApproveDisapprove
Republican7/16-26/211684
Republican9/7-16/21990
Republican11/1-10/211782
Republican1/10-21/22991
Independent7/16-26/215743
Independent9/7-16/214357
Independent11/1-10/214357
Independent1/10-21/224257
Democrat7/16-26/21963
Democrat9/7-16/218911
Democrat11/1-10/218316
Democrat1/10-21/228317

Biden’s approval has also fallen steadily among Black respondents, from 88% in July to 57% in January. Among Hispanic respondents, over the past six months, approval has remained relatively steady in the mid-50s. His support dropped among white respondents from July to September, but has remained steady since, at about 40%. The full trends for each group are shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Approve or disapprove of Biden’s handling of his job, by race, July-Nov. 2021

RacePoll datesApproveDisapprove
Black7/16-26/218810
Black9/7-16/217426
Black11/1-10/216832
Black1/10-21/225741
Hispanic7/16-26/215644
Hispanic9/7-16/215446
Hispanic11/1-10/215149
Hispanic1/10-21/225643
White7/16-26/215050
White9/7-16/214060
White11/1-10/214158
White1/10-21/224060

Favorability to Biden, Harris and Buttigieg

Biden’s favorability rating stands at 45% favorable and 51% unfavorable, with 4% saying they can’t give a rating. His favorability by party is shown in Table 14. While Biden is seen favorably by a higher percentage of Democrats than Trump is among Republicans, he struggles with independents, who as a group are quite unfavorable to him. He makes few inroads with Republicans, who have an overwhelmingly unfavorable view.

Table 14: Biden favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican7921
Lean Republican6874
Independent25659
Lean Democrat71236
Democrat89111

Vice President Kamala Harris is seen favorably by 37% of respondents and unfavorably by 49%, with 14% saying they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. Favorability to Harris by party identification is shown in Table 15. More respondents in each partisan category say they lack an opinion of Harris than say that of Biden.

Table 15: Harris favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican4905
Lean Republican4879
Independent215128
Lean Democrat482428
Democrat79138

Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg ran unsuccessfully against Biden in the 2020 presidential primaries, as did Harris. Both are considered potential future candidates for the presidency. Buttigieg is less well known than Biden or Harris, with 45% of respondents saying they haven’t heard enough about him, while 28% have a favorable and 27% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Table 16 shows favorability to Buttigieg by party identification.

Table 16: Buttigieg favorability, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican105238
Lean Republican44255
Independent132362
Lean Democrat451343
Democrat511137

Approval of Congress

Approval of how Congress is handling its job is at 28% in January, with disapproval at 71%. Table 17 shows the trend in congressional approval since July.

Table 17: Approve or disapprove of how Congress is handling its job, July 2021-Jan. 2022

Poll datesApproveDisapprove
7/16-26/213366
9/7-16/213070
11/1-10/212772
1/10-21/222871

Approval of Congress has declined among all partisan groups since July, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Approve or disapprove of how Congress is handling its job, by party identification, July 2021-Jan. 2022

Party IDPoll datesApproveDisapprove
Republican7/16-26/212276
Republican9/7-16/211584
Republican11/1-10/211585
Republican1/10-21/221882
Lean Republican7/16-26/212178
Lean Republican9/7-16/211288
Lean Republican11/1-10/211387
Lean Republican1/10-21/221187
Independent7/16-26/214357
Independent9/7-16/212574
Independent11/1-10/212871
Independent1/10-21/223366
Lean Democrat7/16-26/213862
Lean Democrat9/7-16/213960
Lean Democrat11/1-10/212574
Lean Democrat1/10-21/222376
Democrat7/16-26/214355
Democrat9/7-16/214752
Democrat11/1-10/214554
Democrat1/10-21/224058

Coronavirus

As cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to coronavirus have ebbed and flowed since September, the percentage saying coronavirus is a serious problem in the respondent’s state also has ebbed and flowed.

Table 19: Is coronavirus a serious problem in the respondent’s state, Sept. 2021-Jan. 2022

Poll datesSerious problemNot serious problem
9/7-16/216832
11/1-10/215050
1/10-21/226931

The percentage thinking coronavirus is a serious problem in their state varies by party identification, with smaller percentages of Republicans saying it is serious, compared to Democrats. However, the shifts in the percentage saying it is serious move roughly in parallel across partisan groups over time, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Whether coronavirus is a serious problem in the respondent’s state, by party identification, Sept. 2021-Jan. 2022

Party IDPoll datesSerious problemNot serious problem
Republican9/7-16/214951
Republican11/1-10/213070
Republican1/10-21/224555
Lean Republican9/7-16/214258
Lean Republican11/1-10/213268
Lean Republican1/10-21/224357
Independent9/7-16/217030
Independent11/1-10/215445
Independent1/10-21/226436
Lean Democrat9/7-16/217723
Lean Democrat11/1-10/215248
Lean Democrat1/10-21/228515
Democrat9/7-16/219010
Democrat11/1-10/217030
Democrat1/10-21/22919

In this survey, 79% say they have received at least one vaccine dose, 69% say they are fully vaccinated, and 21% say they have not been vaccinated. As of the end of the survey field period, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that 87% of those 18 years old or older received at least one dose and 74% were fully vaccinated.

There are partisan differences in vaccination rates, shown in Table 21. Table 22 shows that vaccination status is also associated with how serious a problem the respondent thinks coronavirus is.

Table 21: Vaccination status, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDVaccinatedNot vaccinated
Republican6931
Lean Republican6436
Independent6633
Lean Democrat9010
Democrat955

Table 22: Vaccination status, by opinion whether coronavirus is a serious problem in the respondent’s state and by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party IDOpinion whether coronavirus is a serious problemVaccinatedNot vaccinated
RepublicanSerious problem8713
RepublicanNot serious problem5545
Lean RepublicanSerious problem7723
Lean RepublicanNot serious problem5446
IndependentSerious problem7921
IndependentNot serious problem4554
Lean DemocratSerious problem9010
Lean DemocratNot serious problem899
DemocratSerious problem964
DemocratNot serious problem8911

Reluctance to be vaccinated in the future remains high among the unvaccinated. Among those not yet vaccinated, 63% say they will definitely not get a shot and 25% say they probably won’t, with only 12% saying they definitely or probably will get vaccinated.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Jan. 10-21, 2022, interviewing 1000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.