MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds close races for governor and for the U.S. Senate.
Among likely voters, in his race for reelection, Sen. Ron Johnson, a Republican, is supported by 49%, while his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, is the choice of 48%. In August, immediately after the primary election, Johnson trailed Barnes by 7 percentage points, 52% to 45%, among likely voters. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate.
In the governor’s race, 47% of likely voters support Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, while 44% favor Republican Tim Michels. The independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, is chosen by 5%, with 3% who don’t know. Beglinger ended her campaign on Sept. 6 but will remain on the November ballot. In the Marquette Law School Poll’s August survey, Evers received 48%, Michels 44%, and Beglinger 4% among likely voters.
Table 1 shows the vote preference for governor, among likely voters in August and September and among registered voters since June. Beglinger was not included in the June survey. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
The survey was conducted Sept. 6-11, 2022, interviewing 801 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error among likely voters is +/- 4.9 percentage points.
Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in Table 3 among likely voters. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly unified behind their respective party’s candidates, with 95% of Democrats supporting Evers and 92% of Republicans supporting Michels. Forty-five percent of independents back Evers, while 39% prefer Michels. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 11% from independent voters, 2% from Republicans, and 2% from Democrats.
Table 3: Vote for governor among likely voters, by party identification
Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4, among likely voters. As in the governor’s race, partisans are well-aligned with their party’s candidates, with 96% of Democrats supporting Barnes and 97% of Republicans supporting Johnson. Forty-eight percent of independents back Johnson, while 46% prefer Barnes.
Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate among likely voters, by party identification
Voters were asked about the chances they will vote in November—were they “absolutely certain to vote,” “very likely to vote,” were the “chances 50-50,” or “don’t you think you will vote.” Among Republicans, 77% said they are “absolutely certain” to vote in November’s elections, as did 80% of Democrats and 71% of independents. Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Likelihood of voting, by party identification
The effect of different levels of turnout on vote for governor is shown in Table 6 and for Senate in Table 7. The first row shows preference among all registered voters, with the second row showing the results for an electorate composed of those either “absolutely certain” to vote or “very likely” to vote, while the third row shows the results only among likely voters (i.e., those who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote).
Table 6: Vote for governor, by certainty of voting
How likely to vote
Evers
Michels
Beglinger
Other
Don’t know
Among all registered voters
44
43
8
1
4
Those “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote
Those “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote
47
49
1
2
Only those “absolutely certain” to vote
48
49
1
1
Perceived candidate traits
Table 8 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates since June, along with respondents who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. The non-incumbents have become substantially better known following their primary victories on Aug. 9, although they remain much less well-known than the incumbents. More than 90% of respondents lack an opinion of the independent candidate for governor, Joan Beglinger, who has ended her campaign but whose name will remain on the November ballot.
Table 10 shows the perception that candidates “share my values.” The relative lack of familiarity with the non-incumbent candidates, Michels and Barnes, is evident in the higher percentages that say they “don’t know” about them than that say the same about two incumbents, Evers and Johnson.
Table 13 shows approval and disapproval among registered voters of how Evers responded to the protests and violence in Kenosha in August 2020.
Table 13: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers responded to the protests and violence in Kenosha in August 2020? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Don’t know
Refused
9/6-11/22
16
22
10
37
15
0
Evers job approval
Table 14 shows approval among registered voters, since February 2022, of how Evers has handled his job as governor. There has been a steady decline in net approval during this period. The new survey is only the second time more respondents have disapproved than approved of Evers’ handling of his job since taking office.
Table 14: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? (Among registered voters.)
Poll dates
Net approval
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t know
Refused
9/6-11/22
-3
44
47
8
0
8/10-15/22
2
47
45
8
1
6/14-20/22
3
48
45
6
1
4/19-24/22
6
49
43
7
1
2/22-27/22
9
50
41
8
1
Important issues
In each Marquette Law School Poll survey since August 2021, respondents have been asked how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Table 15 shows the concern with 10 issues in the current survey, sorted from highest to lowest percentage saying they are “very concerned.”
Inflation ranks as the top issue concern. After declining as a concern from June to August, the percentage saying they are very concerned about inflation rose slightly in September.
Partisans differ substantially in their concern over particular issues, as shown in Table 17. Panel (a) in the table is sorted by concern among Republicans, panel (b) is sorted by concern among Democrats, and panel (c) is sorted by concern among independents. The entries are the percentage of each partisan group who say they are “very concerned” about the issue.
Table 17: Issue concerns by party identification, percent “very concerned” (Among registered voters.)
The U.S. Supreme Court decision earlier this year to overturn Roe v Wade, the 1973 ruling which had meant that abortion was legal nationwide, is opposed by a majority of Wisconsin registered voters, including majorities of independents and Democrats. It is favored by a majority of Republicans in the state, as shown in Table 18.
The respondents overwhelmingly support allowing legal abortions in the case of rape or incest, with support of 70% or more in each partisan group, as shown in Table 19.
Table 19: Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
The decision by President Biden to forgive certain student loans is approved by 46%, with 50% who disapprove. Table 20 shows the total and partisan views of this issue.
Approval of student loan forgiveness by education and age is shown in Table 21. Younger voters are more approving than older ones, and college graduates are slightly more approving than non-graduates of the same age.
While 61% say they are very concerned with crime, a large majority, 76%, say they feel safe going about their daily activities, while 23% say they worry about their safety. On this item there are only slight partisan differences, as shown in Table 22.
Worry about personal safety is greater in the City of Milwaukee than in other areas of the state, as shown in Table 24, which combines data from October 2021, April 2022, and September 2022 in order to have larger sample sizes supporting regional comparisons.
While those in the Milwaukee area outside of the city are much less worried about personal safety than are residents of the city, they express equally high levels of concern about crime as do those in the city. Those in other regions of the state express lower levels of concern. Table 25 combines the August and September polls to increase sample size in each region.
Opinion concerning the closure of schools and businesses at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in the spring of 2020 has shifted over time, as the initial very high support for closures has declined. In these new results, a majority, 56%, say the closures were an appropriate response, while 41% say they were an overreaction that did more harm than good. The trend since March 2020 is shown in Table 26.
Forty-one percent of registered voters say it is more important to reduce property taxes, while 51% say it is more important to increase spending on public schools. When asked in August, 43% said reduce property taxes and 52% said increase spending on public schools. Table 27 shows the partisan divide on support for property tax cuts versus spending on schools in the September survey.
Table 27: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
Party ID
Reducing property taxes
Increasing spending on public schools
Don’t know
Refused
Total
41
51
5
3
Republican
69
22
5
4
Independent
46
42
8
4
Democrat
12
85
3
0
A majority, 62%, say they are very satisfied or satisfied with the public schools in their community, while 31% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Table 28 shows the total and partisan breakdowns in the September survey.
Direction of state, Biden approval, Baldwin favorability
A majority of respondents, 53%, think the state is off on the wrong track, while 40% say it is headed in the right direction. The trend since February is shown in Table 29.
In September, 40% approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 55% disapprove, unchanged from August. The trend in Biden approval in 2022 is shown in Table 30.
Opinion on the accuracy of the results of the 2020 presidential election continues to sharply divide the public, with 65% saying they are very or somewhat confident and 34% saying they are not too confident or not at all confident in the election result. These views overall and by party identification are shown in Table 32.
Table 32: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election? (Total and by party identification among registered voters.)
Party ID
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don’t know
Refused
Total
46
19
16
18
1
0
Republican
13
22
29
34
1
1
Independent
41
23
17
18
1
0
Democrat
86
10
1
3
1
0
Table 33 shows the trend since 2021 in 2020 election confidence.
Table 34 shows opinion of former President Donald Trump overall and by party identification in the September survey. A substantial majority of Republicans hold a favorable view of Trump, while majorities of independents and Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of him.
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 801 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Sept. 6-11, 2022. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error for likely voters is +/-4.9 percentage points
Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 399 and have a margin of error of +/- 6 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 402 and have a margin of error of +/- 6.1 percentage points.
Items asked of half-samples include on Form A the issues of public schools, inflation, abortion policy, taxes, gun violence, and crime. Form B items concern the coronavirus pandemic, illegal immigration, climate change, and ensuring an accurate vote count. Form B also included items on property taxes and school spending, and the closing of schools and businesses at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.
The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 10% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 41% independent.
Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45% Republican and 44% Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship excluding those who lean has been 30% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.
The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.