Baldwin leads Hovde 53%-46% in Senate race

Also:

• Enthusiasm among voters is strong among supporters of both parties
• 46% of those polled say they have stopped talking to someone about politics because of presidential race
• Satisfaction with public schools and overall concern about property taxes both increase

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 52% and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 48% in head-to-head matchups among both registered voters and among likely voters. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. Both of these results match those of the last poll conducted in early September.

In a multicandidate race, Harris also leads by 4 percentage points with 48% to Trump’s 44%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 3%, the Party for Socialism and Liberation’s Claudia De la Cruz 0%, Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry 1%, and independent Cornel West 0%, among registered voters. Among likely voters it is Harris 49%, Trump 44%, Kennedy 3%, De la Cruz 0%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry 1%, and West 0%.

Kennedy suspended his campaign on Aug. 23 but remains on the Wisconsin ballot. In the most recent previous poll, in early September, after he had ended his campaign, Kennedy received 6%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 53% to Eric Hovde’s 46% among registered voters. Among likely voters, the results are the same. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. Among registered voters, when initially asked, Baldwin receives 48% and Hovde 43%, with 10% saying they are undecided. Among likely voters, 9% are undecided, while Baldwin remains at 48% and Hovde remains at 43%.

When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, Baldwin receives 51%, Hovde 45%, Phil Anderson, the “Disrupt the Corruption Party” candidate, receives 1%, and Thomas Leager, of the “America First” Party, receives 1%, among registered voters. These results are also the same with likely voters.

The survey was conducted Sept. 18-26, 2024, interviewing 882 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, and 798 likely voters, with the same margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points as for registered voters. (All results are stated as percentages.)

When asked who they think is likely to win the presidential election in November, 50% say Harris will definitely or probably win, while 39% say Trump will definitely or probably win and 11% say they don’t know. There has been an increase in the perceived chance of a Harris win since she entered the race in July, along with a decline in the perception of Trump’s chances, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Who is likely to win the November election

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Who is likely to win?
	Harris	Trump	Don’t know
9/18-26/24	50	39	11
8/28-9/5/24	48	41	11
7/24-8/1/24	38	51	11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election: [Kamala Harris, the Democrat] or [Donald Trump, the Republican]?

Stopped talking about politics

Poll respondents have been asked since 2016 if they have stopped talking about politics with someone because of disagreements over the election for president. In this poll, 46% say there is someone they’ve stopped talking to about politics, with 54% saying this hasn’t happened. This is higher than the past two cycles: In 2020, 36% said they had stopped talking about politics with someone, and in 2016 34% had stopped talking. A similar question was asked in May 2012 about not talking due to the recall election of Gov. Scott Walker. In that poll, 35% said they had stopped talking to someone about politics.

Enthusiasm

Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from June to July, as shown in Table 2, and has continued to increase modestly. In the current survey, 67% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, similar to 63% in early September. For comparison, in the previous presidential cycle in late September 2020, 64% were very enthusiastic.

Table 2: Enthusiasm to vote in the November election

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
9/18-26/24	67	18	12	3
8/28-9/5/24	63	20	12	6
7/24-8/1/24	61	21	15	4
6/12-20/24	46	21	19	14
4/3-10/24	47	22	18	12
1/24-31/24	49	25	17	9
10/26-11/2/23	46	28	19	6
9/30-10/4/20	64	17	7	10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Enthusiasm among Democrats is slightly higher than among Republicans in this poll, with 71% of Democrats saying they are very enthusiastic and 67% of Republicans also very enthusiastic. This represents an increase of enthusiasm among Republicans from 63% in early September, with little change for Democrats, who were at 72% in the previous poll.

Independents are considerably more enthusiastic than in early September, with 50% very enthusiastic now, up from 31% in the previous poll. The full trends by party are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Enthusiasm to vote in the November election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiasm
	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Democrat
9/18-26/24	71	20	8	2
8/28-9/5/24	72	19	8	2
7/24-8/1/24	62	19	15	4
6/12-20/24	40	24	20	16
Independent
9/18-26/24	50	19	19	12
8/28-9/5/24	31	29	24	14
7/24-8/1/24	37	20	26	17
6/12-20/24	30	17	23	29
Republican
9/18-26/24	67	17	13	3
8/28-9/5/24	63	19	11	7
7/24-8/1/24	64	22	12	1
6/12-20/24	57	19	16	8
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Those who are very or somewhat enthusiastic give Harris a lead, while those who are not too or not at all enthusiastic give Trump an advantage, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Vote for Harris or Trump, by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

Enthusiastic	Vote choice 2024
	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump
Very/somewhat	52	48
Not too/not at all	49	51
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Favorability to presidential and vice-presidential candidates

Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50% of registered voters, with 3% saying they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. In the prior poll, Harris was seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 51%, with 2% who didn’t have an opinion. The favorability trend for Harris since July is shown in Table 5. Favorability to Harris was not asked earlier in the year.

Table 5: Favorability to Harris

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24	-3	47	50	3
8/28-9/5/24	-4	47	51	2
7/24-8/1/24	-12	41	53	6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Favorable ratings of Trump increased by 1 point and unfavorable ratings declined by 1 point from early September to late September. His net favorable ratings have improved from those of late 2023, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Favorability to Trump

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24	-11	44	55	1
8/28-9/5/24	-13	43	56	0
7/24-8/1/24	-10	44	54	2
6/12-20/24	-16	41	57	2
4/3-10/24	-13	43	56	1
1/24-31/24	-18	40	58	1
10/26-11/2/23	-24	37	61	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Favorability toward Democratic President Joe Biden remains low, at 42% favorable with his unfavorable rating at 56%. The trend for Biden since late 2023 is shown in Table 7. Biden’s net favorability has remained slightly worse than Trump’s since April.

Table 7: Favorability to Biden

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24	-14	42	56	2
8/28-9/5/24	-15	42	57	1
7/24-8/1/24	-17	40	57	2
6/12-20/24	-18	40	58	1
4/3-10/24	-19	40	59	1
1/24-31/24	-17	41	58	1
10/26-11/2/23	-14	42	56	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

The percentage of those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” has declined since Harris entered the race in July. For Harris and Trump, 6% now have an unfavorable view of both, declining from 11% in July. In the current poll, 47% have a favorable view of Harris and an unfavorable view to Trump, while 43% have a favorable view of Trump and an unfavorable one of Harris. Less than 0.5% have a favorable view of both. The trend in combined favorability is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Combined favorability to Harris and Trump

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability to both Harris and Trump
	KH fav, DT fav	KH fav, DT unfav	KH unfav, DT fav	KH unfav, DT unfav	DK KH or DT
9/18-26/24	0	47	43	6	3
8/28-9/5/24	0	46	42	8	3
7/24-8/1/24	1	40	41	11	7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Vice-presidential candidates

Democratic vice-presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz is viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 38%, with 16% saying they haven’t heard enough. Walz has a net positive favorable rating, unlike the other presidential and vice-presidential candidates. His trend is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Favorability to Walz

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24	7	45	38	16
8/28-9/5/24	6	43	37	19
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance is seen favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 51%, with 11% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Fewer respondents say they haven’t heard enough about Vance than say that of Walz. The trend is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Favorability to Vance

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24	-13	38	51	11
8/28-9/5/24	-10	37	47	16
7/24-8/1/24	-10	31	41	28
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Favorability of all presidential and vice-presidential candidates

Table 11 shows the favorability ratings including third-party candidates for president. Walz is the only candidate with a positive net favorability rating. Kennedy is the best known of the third-party candidates, all of whom are less well known than Harris or Trump.

Table 11: Favorability of all national candidates

Among registered voters

Candidate	Favorability
	Net fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Harris	-3	47	50	3
Trump	-11	44	55	1
Vance	-13	38	51	11
Walz	7	45	38	16
Kennedy	-15	36	51	13
De la Cruz	-5	2	7	88
Oliver	-4	2	6	89
Stein	-17	10	27	61
Terry	-3	2	5	90
West	-12	6	18	75
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Characteristics of Harris and Trump

The perceived characteristics of Harris and Trump are shown in Table 12. More people see Trump as having strong accomplishments, while the two are virtually tied on being a strong leader. More see Trump as too old to be president and as having behaved corruptly. More people see Harris than see Trump as intelligent, honest, with the right temperament, and sharing the respondent’s values.

Table 12: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump

Among registered voters

Candidate	How well phrase describes
	Very/somewhat well	Not too/not at all well
Is too old to be president
Harris	13	87
Trump	61	39
Shares your values
Harris	51	49
Trump	45	55
Has behaved corruptly
Harris	41	59
Trump	63	37
Strong record of accomplishments
Harris	45	55
Trump	52	48
Has the right temperament to be president
Harris	58	42
Trump	43	57
Is a strong leader
Harris	52	48
Trump	53	47
Is intelligent
Harris	60	40
Trump	54	46
Is honest
Harris	50	49
Trump	42	58
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)?

Issues in the presidential campaign

Table 13 shows which candidate respondents think would do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen by more respondents as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy, and he holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen by more respondents as doing a better job on abortion policy, ensuring fair and accurate elections, health care, and Medicare & Social Security.

Between 9% and 22% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each specific issue.

Table 13: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

Issue	Who better
	Harris	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good
Immigration and border security	37	49	8	6
Israel-Hamas war	33	45	9	13
The economy	42	50	5	4
Foreign relations	45	47	4	5
Ensuring fair and accurate election	49	39	6	6
Medicare & Social Security	50	39	5	6
Health care	49	37	6	7
Abortion policy	53	36	4	7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Most important issues

Respondents were asked which of eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue by a large margin, followed by abortion policy and immigration, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Most important issues

Among registered voters

Response	Percent
The economy	37
Immigration and border security	15
Abortion policy	15
Medicare & Social Security	9
Ensuring fair and accurate elections	7
Health care	7
Foreign relations	4
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	2
Don’t know	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 15. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with Medicare & Social Security a distant second. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, with the economy second.

Table 15: Most important issues by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Issue
	The economy	Immigration and border security	Health care	Foreign relations	Abortion policy	Medicare & Social Security	The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	Ensuring fair and accurate elections	Don’t know
Republican	53	31	1	2	3	5	1	3	1
Independent	39	6	5	9	9	12	4	5	10
Democrat	19	1	13	5	31	13	2	11	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

More than two-thirds of registered voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and just under one-third say it should be illegal in all or most cases. This has changed little since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Abortion opinion trend

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know
9/18-26/24	34	35	27	5	0
8/28-9/5/24	31	35	28	5	0
7/24-8/1/24	33	34	27	5	1
6/12-20/24	34	32	26	8	0
4/3-10/24	28	36	26	9	1
6/8-13/23	32	34	25	6	1
8/10-15/22	30	35	25	5	3
6/14-20/22	27	31	24	11	5
10/26-31/21	23	38	23	11	4
2/19-23/20	18	37	22	15	6
10/24-28/18	26	29	24	14	4
9/12-16/18	26	36	21	9	6
7/11-15/18	27	36	18	11	6
10/23-26/14	24	34	24	15	3
10/21-24/13	26	36	25	10	2
10/25-28/12	28	32	23	12	4
10/11-14/12	25	34	25	12	3
9/27-30/12	25	35	23	12	3
9/13-16/12	26	34	23	13	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Perceived candidate ideology

Harris is seen as very liberal by 51% of respondents, and Trump is seen as very conservative by 52%. Harris is seen as moderate by 15%, while 10% see Trump that way.

There has been little change in these perceptions since the most recent previous poll in early September.

In contrast to their view of the candidates, voters see themselves as closer to the center, with 34% describing themselves as moderate, 11% as very liberal, and 12% as very conservative. Self-described ideology has also remained stable over the two polls. The full set of results is shown in in Table 17.

Table 17: Perceived candidate ideology

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
Harris
9/18-26/24	2	2	15	30	51
8/28-9/5/24	3	2	16	27	52
Trump
9/18-26/24	52	34	10	1	2
8/28-9/5/24	53	32	10	2	3
Self-description
9/18-26/24	12	25	34	18	11
8/28-9/5/24	14	25	34	16	11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…

Vote by ideology

Presidential vote is closely aligned with the respondent’s self-described ideology, though there is more support for Harris among those somewhat conservative than there is Trump support among those somewhat liberal, as shown in Table 18. A substantial majority of moderates support Harris. Overall, there are more conservatives, 37%, than liberals, 29%, while moderates make up 34% of registered voters.

Table 18: Vote by political ideology

Among registered voters

Self description	Vote
	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump
Very conservative	1	99
Somewhat conservative	11	89
Moderate	61	39
Somewhat liberal	98	2
Very liberal	96	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [Former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]?

Vote by party ID

Table 19 shows presidential vote by party identification in the polls since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate. Democratic support for Harris is remarkably high in all three polls, at 97% to 100%. Republican support for Trump is high at 94% to 95%, but there is a small 5% to 6% Republican vote for Harris. These results have been consistent in all three polls with slight variation.

Independents, in contrast to partisans, have shifted from July, when they preferred Trump over Harris, 54% to 44%. That balance shifted sharply in early September, with independents supporting Harris 60% to 40% over Trump, and in late September they backed Harris 61% to 39% for Trump. This shift among independents, and the small Republican vote for Harris, are the primary reasons for Harris’ current 4-percentage-point lead among registered voters. Trump had a 1-percentage-point edge in July among registered voters.

Table 19: Vote for Harris or Trump, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump	Haven’t decided
9/18-26/24
Republican	6	94	0
Independent	61	39	0
Democrat	99	1	0
8/28-9/5/24
Republican	5	95	0
Independent	60	40	1
Democrat	100	0	0
7/24-8/1/24
Republican	6	94	0
Independent	44	54	1
Democrat	97	2	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [Former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]?

Third-party vote trends

The trend in vote preference including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 20. The total third-party vote has declined from 22% in January to 6% in late September, with Kennedy falling from 16% to 3% over that time among registered voters. The current level of third-party vote preference is close to the recent high of 5.5% of the actual vote in 2016 and much higher than the 1.5% in 2020. Oliver was not included prior to the June poll, and Terry appeared for the first time in July. De la Cruz appears here for the first time.

Table 20: Vote including third-party candidates

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Vote choice
	Harris	Biden	Trump	Kennedy	De la Cruz	Oliver	Stein	Terry	West
9/18-26/24	48	NA	44	3	0	1	1	1	0
8/28-9/5/24	47	NA	43	6	NA	1	1	0	1
7/24-8/1/24	45	NA	43	8	NA	1	1	0	0
6/12-20/24	NA	40	43	8	NA	2	2	NA	4
4/3-10/24	NA	40	41	13	NA	NA	3	NA	2
1/24-31/24	NA	37	40	16	NA	NA	4	NA	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Who would you vote for if the candidates were [Democrat Kamala Harris], [Republican Donald Trump], [independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr], [Libertarian Chase Oliver], [the Green Party’s Jill Stein], [Constitution Party’s Randall Terry], [independent Cornel West] or [the Party for Socialism and Liberation’s Claudia De la Cruz]?

Senate vote by party identification

As shown in Table 21, Baldwin receives 99% among Democratic registered voters and Hovde 1%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 91%, while Baldwin takes 8%. Independents favor Baldwin by 62% to Hovde’s 37%. Baldwin’s support among independents increased in both September polls over the levels in June and July. Partisans have become slightly more loyal to their nominees.

Table 21: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde	Haven’t decided
9/18-26/24
Republican	8	91	1
Independent	62	37	0
Democrat	99	1	0
8/28-9/5/24
Republican	4	94	1
Independent	65	33	1
Democrat	99	1	0
7/24-8/1/24
Republican	11	88	1
Independent	52	46	1
Democrat	98	2	1
6/12-20/24
Republican	12	88	1
Independent	52	48	0
Democrat	95	5	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between (Eric Hovde, the Republican), and (Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat), would you vote for (Eric Hovde) or for (Tammy Baldwin) or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for (Hovde) or for (Baldwin)?

The multicandidate Senate vote by party identification in late September is shown in Table 22. Third-party candidate support is highest among independents with little support from Republicans and Democrats.

Table 22: Multicandidate senate vote

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Baldwin	Hovde	Anderson	Leager	Don’t know
9/18-26/24
Republican	5	91	1	1	2
Independent	60	30	6	4	1
Democrat	98	0	1	0	0
8/28-9/5/24
Republican	4	91	2	2	1
Independent	62	24	5	7	1
Democrat	99	1	0	1	0
7/24-8/1/24
Republican	8	88	2	2	0
Independent	42	34	9	7	8
Democrat	96	2	1	1	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: If the U.S. Senate ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde, Disrupt the Corruption Party’s Phil Anderson, or America First Party’s Thomas Leage?

Senate candidate favorability

In the current survey Baldwin’s favorable rating is 47% and her unfavorable rating 47%, with 6% who don’t know enough about her. Baldwin’s net favorable rating has ranged from -3 to +5 and is currently dead even at 0.

Hovde is seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 45%, with 18% who haven’t heard enough. The number of those without an opinion of Hovde has declined from 82% in January to 18% in September. His net favorable rating has ranged from -2 to -13 from January to September, and is currently -9, unchanged from early September.

These favorability trends are shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Favorability to Senate candidates

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Tammy Baldwin
9/18-26/24	0	47	47	6
8/28-9/5/24	1	47	46	7
7/24-8/1/24	0	44	44	12
6/12-20/24	1	45	44	11
4/3-10/24	5	47	42	11
1/24-31/24	-3	42	45	13
10/26-11/2/23	-2	41	43	15
6/8-13/23	3	40	37	22
Eric Hovde
9/18-26/24	-9	36	45	18
8/28-9/5/24	-9	34	43	22
7/24-8/1/24	-13	24	37	38
6/12-20/24	-9	23	32	44
4/3-10/24	-5	19	24	56
1/24-31/24	-2	7	9	82
6/8-13/23	-4	4	8	85
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

The third-party candidates for Senate are unfamiliar to the vast majority of registered voters. Phil Anderson is seen favorably by 3%, unfavorably by 4%, and 90% say they haven’t heard enough. Another 3% say they don’t know. Thomas Leager is seen favorably by 2% and unfavorably by 4%, with 90% who haven’t heard enough and 3% who don’t know.

Perceived characteristics of Senate candidates

Baldwin has her largest advantage over Hovde on being seen as committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin, with 60% saying this describes her, while 51% say it describes Hovde.

Baldwin also has a 9-point edge on being seen as someone who cares about people like the respondent, 56% to Hovde’s 47%.

The two are closer to equal in being seen as someone who will work to solve our national problems, with 54% saying this describes Baldwin and 50% saying this describes Hovde. The full results are shown in Table 24.

Table 24: How well does this phrase describe Baldwin or Hovde

Among registered voters

Candidate	How well phrase describes
	Very/somewhat well	Not too/not at all well
Is committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin
Baldwin	60	40
Hovde	51	48
Is someone who cares about people like me
Baldwin	56	43
Hovde	47	52
Will work to solve our national problems
Baldwin	54	46
Hovde	50	49
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Tammy Baldwin)(Eric Hovde)?

Perceived Senate candidate ideology

Baldwin is seen as very or somewhat liberal by 79% and Hovde is seen as very or somewhat conservative by 87%. Baldwin is seen as moderate by 16% and Hovde as moderate by 9%. More see Hovde as very conservative, 55%, than see Baldwin as very liberal, 45%. The results, also including the respondent’s self-description, are shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Perceived senate candidate ideology and also respondents’ self-described ideology

Among registered voters

Individual	Ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
Baldwin	2	2	16	34	45
Hovde	55	32	9	1	2
Self-description	12	25	34	18	11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…

Senate vote by respondent’s ideological self-description

Table 26 shows conservative voters strongly prefer Hovde, while liberal voters strongly prefer Baldwin. A substantial majority of moderate voters also prefer Baldwin. There are more conservatives for Baldwin than there are liberals for Hovde by a margin of 11% to 6%.

Table 26: Vote for Senate, by political ideology

Among registered voters

Self description	Vote
	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde
Very conservative	1	98
Somewhat conservative	10	87
Moderate	65	35
Somewhat liberal	98	2
Very liberal	96	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe your political views as…
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between [Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat,] and [Eric Hovde, the Republican,] would you vote for [Tammy Baldwin], or for [Eric Hovde or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Baldwin], or for [Hovde]?

Biden and Trump presidential job approval

Biden’s job approval stands at 43% with disapproval at 56%, a 2-percentage point increase in approval and a 2-percentage point decrease in disapproval. Table 27 shows the recent trend in job approval.

Table 27: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
9/18-26/24	43	56	15	28	9	48
8/28-9/5/24	41	58	16	25	11	47
7/24-8/1/24	42	57	18	23	12	45
6/12-20/24	40	57	16	24	10	47
4/3-10/24	40	57	16	24	8	49
1/24-31/24	41	58	18	23	10	48
10/26-11/2/23	42	57	17	25	12	44
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In this late September poll, 47% approved and 52% disapproved, an increase in approval of 1 percentage point since early September and a decrease in disapproval of 2 percentage points. For comparison, Trump’s approval in the last Marquette Law School Poll before the 2020 election was 47% approve and 52% disapprove. The recent trend is shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Trump retrospective job approval

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
9/18-26/24	47	52	35	12	8	45
8/28-9/5/24	46	54	31	16	8	46
7/24-8/1/24	48	51	32	16	8	43
6/12-20/24	47	52	30	16	8	44
4/3-10/24	47	52	26	21	9	43
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president?

Direction of the state, economic conditions, and personal financial situation

The percentage saying the state is headed in the right direction dipped 2 points, and the percentage saying the state is off on the wrong track rose by 3 points since the early September poll. The full trend is shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Direction of the state

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Direction
	Right direction	Wrong track
9/18-26/24	44	56
8/28-9/5/24	46	53
6/12-20/24	45	55
4/3-10/24	41	59
1/24-31/24	42	57
10/26-11/2/23	36	62
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 5%, as good by 32%, as not so good by 30%, and as poor by 33%. Views of the economy have fluctuated modestly since November 2023, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll dates	National economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
9/18-26/24	5	32	30	33
8/28-9/5/24	3	32	35	30
7/24-8/1/24	5	28	33	33
6/12-20/24	4	30	34	32
4/3-10/24	5	28	38	28
1/24-31/24	6	32	34	28
10/26-11/2/23	3	24	36	37
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 48% say they are living comfortably, while 37% say they are just getting by and 16% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 31. The percentage living comfortably has returned to the level of November 2023 at 48%. The percentages just getting by and struggling have each increased by 1 percentage point since November 2023.

Table 31: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
9/18-26/24	48	37	16
8/28-9/5/24	44	38	17
7/24-8/1/24	44	40	15
6/12-20/24	46	37	17
4/3-10/24	45	40	15
1/24-31/24	49	38	13
10/26-11/2/23	48	36	15
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Property taxes, school funding, and satisfaction with public schools

Asked which is more important, reducing property taxes or increasing funding for schools, the percentage saying reducing property taxes is more important has increased substantially since 2018, while those saying increasing funding for public schools has declined. In the current survey, 56% say reducing property taxes is more important, while 44% say increasing spending on schools is more important. In early October 2018, by contrast, 37% said reducing property taxes was more important and 57% said school spending was more important. There has been a continued increase in concern about property taxes since 2018, while support for increased spending on public schools has steadily declined. Support for school spending rose from early 2013 to its peak in early 2018 before the trend reversed in the second half of 2018. The full trend is shown in Table 32.

Table 32: Reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Which more important
	Reducing property taxes	Increasing spending on public schools	Don’t know
9/18-26/24	56	44	1
10/26-11/2/23	52	47	1
6/8-13/23	50	47	3
10/24-11/1/22	46	48	5
10/3-9/22	42	52	5
9/6-11/22	41	51	5
8/10-15/22	43	52	5
4/19-24/22	46	50	4
8/3-8/21	42	52	5
2/19-23/20	38	56	5
1/8-12/20	41	55	4
1/16-20/19	39	55	6
10/24-28/18	40	55	4
10/3-7/18	37	57	6
9/12-16/18	38	57	5
8/15-19/18	32	61	5
6/13-17/18	35	59	5
2/25-3/1/18	33	63	3
4/7-10/15	40	54	5
5/6-9/13	49	46	4
3/11-13/13	49	46	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools?

Satisfaction with public schools in the respondent’s community increased in September after dropping in the June Marquette poll. Among those with an opinion, 64% are very satisfied or satisfied, and 35% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. In June, 52% were very satisfied or satisfied and 47% were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. The June poll followed news of financial errors in the Milwaukee Public Schools and the resignation of the MPS superintendent. Current satisfaction has returned to the previous level seen in November 2023, although it remains lower overall than in previous years. The full trend in satisfaction with schools is shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Satisfaction with public schools

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Satisfaction
	Very satisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Very dissatisfied
9/18-26/24	12	52	25	10
6/12-20/24	8	44	27	20
10/26-11/2/23	12	52	26	11
6/8-13/23	14	55	23	8
9/6-11/22	20	47	21	12
4/19-24/22	17	49	20	14
10/26-31/21	28	39	20	14
8/3-8/21	24	52	17	7
1/8-12/20	16	48	24	12
9/12-16/18	20	52	19	9
3/13-16/17	27	52	15	6
4/7-10/15	26	52	16	5
5/6-9/13	20	54	18	8
3/11-13/13	25	60	12	2
5/23-26/12	24	51	18	7
5/9-12/12	25	48	20	7
4/26-29/12	25	46	18	11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community?
Note: Among those with an opinion

Satisfaction with schools dipped in all regions of the state in the June poll but returned to the immediate previous levels in September. Table 34 shows satisfaction by region in September and June.

Table 34: Satisfaction with public schools by region

Among registered voters

	Satisfaction
Region	Very satisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Very dissatisfied
9/18-26/24
MKE City	2	31	40	27
Rest of MKE	13	49	27	11
MSN	9	65	20	5
GB/Appleton	10	57	21	11
Rest of state	19	48	25	7
6/12-20/24
MKE City	2	20	41	37
Rest of MKE	8	48	24	19
MSN	8	43	31	19
GB/Appleton	10	45	29	16
Rest of state	9	47	24	19
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community?
Note: Among those with an opinion

Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court

Table 35 shows the job performance ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, whose approval is 48% and disapproval is 46%. This is a 3-percentage point dip in approval since early September, and the first time Evers’s approval has been below 50% since November 2023. His disapproval rose 2 percentage points since early September.

Table 35: Approval of Tony Evers’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
9/18-26/24	48	46	5
8/28-9/5/24	51	44	5
7/24-8/1/24	51	44	5
6/12-20/24	51	44	6
4/3-10/24	52	44	3
1/24-31/24	51	44	5
10/26-11/2/23	53	46	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

Approval of the legislature is shown in Table 36. Disapproval has remained greater than approval since November 2023, with little change.

Table 36: Approval of the Wisconsin legislature’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
9/18-26/24	33	55	12
7/24-8/1/24	33	54	12
4/3-10/24	34	56	9
1/24-31/24	34	58	8
10/26-11/2/23	40	57	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?

Approval of the way the Wisconsin Supreme Court is handling its job is shown in Table 37. Approval has remained in the mid-40% range since January, down from 51% in November 2023. Disapproval has ranged from 37% to 43%. A relatively high percentage, 15%, say they don’t have an opinion of the Court’s performance.

Table 37: Approval of the state Supreme Court’s job performance

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
9/18-26/24	44	40	15
7/24-8/1/24	46	37	17
4/3-10/24	46	39	15
1/24-31/24	45	43	13
10/26-11/2/23	51	43	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?

Favorability to Sen. Ron Johnson

Favorability to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is shown in Table 38. Johnson’s net favorability has improved slightly since January, but his overall rating remains more unfavorable than favorable.

Table 38: Ron Johnson favorability

Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net fav	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
9/18-26/24	-9	40	49	11
8/28-9/5/24	-10	39	49	12
7/24-8/1/24	-11	36	47	17
6/12-20/24	-12	38	50	11
4/3-10/24	-12	39	51	11
1/24-31/24	-14	38	52	9
10/26-11/2/23	-10	40	50	10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: Sept. 18-26, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of INSERT NAME or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted Sept. 18-26, 2024, interviewing 882 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. The sample contains 798 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the same as for registered voters.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 668 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list, and 214 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 768 respondents and with 114 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 34% Republican, 32% Democratic and 34% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.