New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds approval of President Trump almost unchanged at 45%, support among Republicans and his base remains strong

Also:

  • Opinion divided on Trump’s stands on deportations, negative on tariffs and inflation
  • Majority think deportations mostly involve people without criminal records; partisan divides on just about every issue remain very large
  • The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is seen negatively; airstrikes on Iran nuclear facilities are seen positively

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds President Donald Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 45%, with 55% disapproval. In May, approval was 46% and disapproval was 54%. Republicans and Trump voters continue to express strong approval, while Democrats are almost uniformly negative. Independents are substantially more negative than positive, although approval rose in July with this group. Table 1 shows approval by party since January. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Trump approval, by party ID

Among national adults

Poll datesApproval
ApproveDisapprove
Republican
7/7-16/258614
5/5-15/258713
3/17-27/258713
1/27-2/6/258911
Independent
7/7-16/253862
5/5-15/253169
3/17-27/253267
1/27-2/6/253763
Democrat
7/7-16/25793
5/5-15/25892
3/17-27/251090
1/27-2/6/25991
Marquette Law School Poll,  national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

The survey was conducted July 7-16, 2025, interviewing 1,005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

There is no evidence that Trump voters are rethinking their support. Among those who voted for Trump in November, 91% approve of the job he is doing and 9% disapprove. Among those who voted for the Democratic candidate, former Vice President Kamala Harris, 4% approve of Trump’s performance and 96% disapprove. Table 2 shows approval since January by 2024 presidential vote.

Table 2: Trump approval, by 2024 vote

Among national adults

Poll datesApproval
ApproveDisapprove
Voted for Donald Trump
7/7-16/25919
5/5-15/258812
3/17-27/25928
1/27-2/6/25946
Voted for Kamala Harris
7/7-16/25496
5/5-15/25595
3/17-27/25496
1/27-2/6/25396
Marquette Law School Poll,  national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

On Trump’s signature issue of deporting immigrants in the United States illegally, 57% favor and 43% oppose such deportations. That is lower than in May, when 66% were in favor and 34% were opposed. Support peaked in March at 68%.

Republicans remain overwhelmingly in favor of deportations, while a majority of independents are now opposed, after a notable decline in their support from May to July. Support among independents fell by 20 percentage points from May to July. The disapproval rate among Democrats, which has been high throughout 2025, rose 17 percentage points higher from May to July. Table 3 shows these data.

Table 3: Deportations, by party ID

Among national adults

Poll datesFavor or oppose deportations
FavorOppose
Republican
7/7-16/25937
5/5-15/25919
3/17-27/25955
1/27-2/6/25937
Independent
7/7-16/254159
5/5-15/256139
3/17-27/256238
1/27-2/6/255149
Democrat
7/7-16/252278
5/5-15/253961
3/17-27/254159
1/27-2/6/252971
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?

Support for deporting immigrants who are long-time residents, with jobs and no criminal record, has been consistently lower, with majorities opposed to deportation of this category of immigrants. In July, 62% are opposed to deporting these immigrants, with 38% in favor. This is a small decline in support since May, when 42% were in favor. It is the lowest level of support since Trump took office in January. A majority of Republicans favor deporting those with jobs and no criminal record, while majorities of independents and Democrats oppose these deportations. Support declined slightly in each partisan group from May to July, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Deportations including those with jobs and no criminal record, by party ID

Among national adults

Poll datesFavor or oppose deportations
FavorOppose
Republican
7/7-16/256931
5/5-15/257426
3/17-27/256436
1/27-2/6/256733
Independent
7/7-16/253367
5/5-15/253664
3/17-27/253466
1/27-2/6/253169
Democrat
7/7-16/251288
5/5-15/251486
3/17-27/252278
1/27-2/6/252278
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?

During the campaign, Trump emphasized deporting immigrants with criminal records. In July, 55% of respondents believe that the United States is mostly deporting immigrants who have no criminal record, while 45% believe most of those deported do have criminal records. There is a partisan split in this perception, with a majority of Republicans believing deportations are focused on those with criminal records, while majorities of independents and Democrats think deportations mostly involve those without criminal records, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Believe U.S. is mostly deporting criminals, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDMostly criminals or mostly non-criminals
Mostly deporting immigrants with criminal recordsMostly deporting immigrants who have no criminal records
Among all adults4555
Republican7822
Independent4159
Democrat1387
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Do you think the U.S. is [mostly deporting immigrants with criminal records] or [mostly deporting immigrants who have no criminal records]?

Trump has continued to focus on raising tariffs throughout his first six months of this term in office, but the public remains skeptical that tariffs will help the economy. In July, 28% think tariffs will help the economy, while 59% think they will hurt it and 12% think tariffs will not make much difference. This is a small decline in the percentage saying tariffs help the economy, from 32% in May, and is the same percentage as in March. While most Americans think tariffs hurt the economy, a majority of Republicans believe they help. A majority of independents think they hurt, as do almost all Democrats, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Tariffs help or hurt the economy, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDTariffs help or hurt the economy
Helps U.S. economyHurts U.S. economyDoesn’t make much difference
Among all adults285912
Republican582814
Independent126028
Democrat4915
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: In general, do you think imposing tariffs or fees on products imported from other countries helps the U.S. economy, hurts the economy, or doesn’t make much of a difference either way?

Inflation is cited as the most important issue facing the country by 34% of respondents, followed by the economy at 16% in July. The public remains skeptical that Trump’s policies will bring down inflation, with 28% saying his policies will decrease inflation, 60% saying they will increase inflation, and 12% saying they will have no effect. A majority of Republicans believe Trump will decrease inflation, while majorities of independents and Democrats think his policies will increase inflation, as shown in Table 7. Confidence in reducing inflation has fallen among all partisan groups since December, dropping by 21 percentage points among Republicans and by 11 points among independents.

Table 7: Will Trump policies reduce inflation, by party ID

Among national adults

Poll datesPolicies decrease or increase inflation
Decrease inflationIncrease inflationHave no effect on inflation
Republican
7/7-16/25552619
5/5-15/25553114
3/17-27/25622315
1/27-2/6/25701613
12/2-11/24761114
Independent
7/7-16/25177013
5/5-15/25186814
3/17-27/25166024
1/27-2/6/25264726
12/2-11/24284328
Democrat
7/7-16/254915
5/5-15/255914
3/17-27/254924
1/27-2/6/2558510
12/2-11/2488210
Marquette Law School Poll,  national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Do you think Trump’s policy proposals will decrease inflation, increase inflation, or have no effect on inflation?

Looking ahead, 65% think inflation will increase over the next 12 months, with 18% thinking it will decrease and 18% expecting it to remain about the same. While Republicans are more optimistic than the public at large, slightly more Republicans think inflation will increase (36%) than think it will decrease (35%). Inflation expectations by party are shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Inflation expectations, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDInflation over next 12 months
IncreaseDecreaseStay about the same
Among all adults651818
Republican363529
Independent72919
Democrat9146
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Over the next 12 months do you think inflation and the cost of living will increase, decrease or stay about the same?

Trump’s major policy and budget bill, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” was passed by Congress on July 3 and signed into law by the president on July 4. In this poll, 41% support the law and 59% oppose it. A substantial majority of Republicans support the law while most independents and Democrats oppose it, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: One Big Beautiful Bill Act, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDOne Big Beautiful Bill
SupportOppose
Among all adults4159
Republican7921
Independent3465
Democrat694
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: From what you know about it, how much do you support or oppose President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”?

Following the debate during the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill, more people (68%) think the federal budget deficit will increase than thought so in May (52%). This growth in expectation of an increase in the deficit holds across partisan categories, with an especially notable doubling among Republicans from 22% in May to 44% in July, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Will budget reduce or increase federal deficit, by party ID

Among national adults

Poll datesReduce or increase federal deficit
Reduce the deficitIncrease the deficit
Republican
7/7-16/255644
5/5-15/257822
Independent
7/7-16/252773
5/5-15/254455
Democrat
7/7-16/251189
5/5-15/251882
Marquette Law School Poll,  national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: In the upcoming federal budget, do you think Congress and President Trump will end up reducing or increasing the federal budget deficit?

On June 21, the United States conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. This action is supported by 52% and opposed by 48%. A large majority of Republicans (85%) support this action, while majorities of independents (57%) and Democrats (78%) oppose it. While there was some division regarding U.S. action among Trump’s supporters in media commentary, among Republicans who are favorable to the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, more support the airstrikes, 90%, than among Republicans who are unfavorable to MAGA, 64%.

Trump’s approval varies substantially across seven specific issues, from a high of 54% on border security to a low of 35% on both tariffs and inflation. Net approval, the percent approving minus the percent disapproving, ranges from +8 percentage points to -30 percentage points.

Approval across issues and overall is shown in Table 11. After border security, the second highest approval is for Trump’s handling of immigration, with a net approval of -6 with 47% approval and 53% disapproval. That is down from an even 50%-50% split in May. Overall approval is net negative at -10, followed by handling the Israel-Iran war, foreign policy, and the economy. Net approval of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living is -30, which is tied with tariffs.

Table 11: Trump job approval across issues

Among adults

 Approval
IssueNetApproveDisapprove
Border security85446
Immigration-64753
Overall-104555
Israel-Iran war-124456
The economy-144357
Foreign policy-144357
Inflation/cost of living-303565
Tariffs-303565
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues?

Approval and issues by partisanship

The strength of Trump’s appeal to his base is clear among Republicans, with more than two-thirds approving of his handling of each issue. Nonetheless, even among Republicans, there is variation across issues, with border security as the highest net approval and inflation and cost of living as the lowest net approval.

A majority of independents disapprove of Trump’s handing of each issue, with border security as the best net approval and inflation worst.

Democrats are extremely negative across all issues. Approval across issues by party identification is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Trump job approval across issues, by party identification

Among adults

 Approval
IssueRep NetRep ApproveRep DisapproveInd NetInd ApproveInd DisapproveDem NetDem ApproveDem Disapprove
Border security88946-44852-681684
Immigration788911-283664-82991
Overall728614-243862-86793
Israel-Iran war587921-363268-741387
The economy628119-343367-84892
Foreign policy668317-482674-801090
Inflation/cost of living407030-641882-90595
Tariffs407030-582179-90595
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues?

While presidents can be judged on individual issues, they are also looked on as trustworthy or not. To assess this, the poll asked, “Regardless of specific policies, how much do you trust Donald Trump to make the right decisions for the country?” Here, 18% say they completely trust Trump, 27% mostly trust him, 14% mostly do not trust him, and 41% completely do not trust him. There are sharp differences across parties. A majority of Republicans completely or mostly trust the president, while majorities of independents and Democrats mostly or completely do not trust him. These results are shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Trust Trump, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDTrust Trump
Completely trustMostly trustMostly do not trustCompletely do not trust
Among all adults18271441
Republican404884
Independent1302741
Democrat161677
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Regardless of specific policies, how much do you trust Donald Trump to make the right decisions for the country?

Inflation and the cost of living is rated as the most important issue by 34%, followed by the economy at 16%. Medicare and Social Security is rated the third most important issue at 14%, followed by immigration and border security at 13%. Other issues are seen as most important by fewer than 10% of respondents, with health care at 7%, the federal budget deficit at 5%, the Israel-Iran war at 3%, and abortion policy and foreign policy each at 2%. The full set of issue ratings is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Most important issue

Among adults

Issue 
Percent most important
Inflation and the cost of living34
The economy16
Medicare & Social Security14
Immigration and border security13
Health care7
The size of the federal deficit5
The war between Israel and Iran3
Abortion policy2
Foreign policy2
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

Inflation is the most important issue for each partisan group. There is relatively little variation in ratings of issues across partisan camps, something not seen in approval or policy questions. While Democrats rate Medicare and Social Security a bit more important than do Republicans, and Republicans rate immigration as more important than Democrats, these differences are modest.

The full ratings of most important issues by party is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Most important issue, by party identification

Among adults

Issue 
Rep most importantInd most importantDem most important
Inflation and the cost of living364030
The economy181515
Medicare & Social Security101019
Immigration and border security151410
Health care3712
The size of the federal deficit923
Don’t know374
The war between Israel and Iran442
Abortion policy203
Foreign policy112
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

Attention to topics in the news

The public in this month’s poll had paid the most attention to news about the Israel-Iran war and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with 65% and 63% saying they read or heard a lot about these topics, respectively. The congressional debate over the “One Big Beautiful Bill” garnered almost as much attention, with 60% hearing a lot about it. The deployment of National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles received a bit less attention, while news about the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from El Salvador and about the U.S. Supreme Court received much less notice, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Attention to topics in the news

Among adults

TopicRead or heard about
A lotA littleNothing at all
The war between Israel and Iran65323
The U.S. airstrikes on nuclear facilities in Iran63335
Congressional debate over “One Big Beautiful Bill” which addresses taxes, Medicaid and other budget matters60329
The deployment of U.S. Marines and National Guard troops in Los Angeles in June553114
The return to the U.S. of a man who was erroneously deported to El Salvador374122
The U.S. Supreme Court345115
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Views of the parties

Approval of the way Republicans in Congress are handing their job stands at 42%, with disapproval at 58%. This is virtually unchanged from May, when 43% approved and 57% disapproved.

Approval of how Democrats in Congress are doing their job is substantially lower at 34%, with disapproval at 66%. This is an increase in approval of Democrats from 29% in May.

Republican approval of Republican job performance in Congress is 80%, while approval among Democrats of the way congressional Democrats are handling their job is much lower, 56%. Approval of the Republicans in Congress by party identification since March is shown in Table 17 and for the Democrats in Congress in Table 18.

Table 17: Approval of Republicans in Congress, by party ID

Among national adults

Poll datesApproval of Republicans in Congress
ApproveDisapprove
Republican
7/7-16/258020
5/5-15/258119
3/17-27/258713
Independent
7/7-16/253466
5/5-15/252773
3/17-27/252871
Democrat
7/7-16/25694
5/5-15/25991
3/17-27/251090
Marquette Law School Poll,  national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job?

Table 18: Approval of Democrats in Congress, by party ID

Among national adults

Poll datesApproval of Democrats in Congress
ApproveDisapprove
Republican
7/7-16/251486
5/5-15/25793
3/17-27/251288
Independent
7/7-16/253070
5/5-15/253367
3/17-27/251584
Democrat
7/7-16/255644
5/5-15/254951
3/17-27/255050
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Democrats in Congress are handling their job?

Six percent of those polled have favorable views of both parties, 27% are favorable to the Democrats and unfavorable to Republicans, 34% are unfavorable to the Democrats and favorable to Republicans, and 28% are unfavorable to both parties.

Elon Musk has said he will support the creation of a new third party, the America Party. With more than a quarter of the public viewing both parties unfavorably, this might be an opportunity for a third party. However, when asked how likely they would be to support the America Party in a state or congressional race, 7% say very likely, 31% somewhat likely, and 62% say not likely. Among those who have unfavorable feelings to both the Democratic and Republican parties, support for the America Party hardly differs from overall support, with 8% very likely, 32% somewhat likely, and 60% not likely.

Ideological perception of the parties

The public sees substantial differences in the parties’ ideological locations, with the Republican party seen as very conservative by 47%, somewhat conservative by 33%, and moderate by  11%. For the Democratic party, 43% see it as very liberal, 26% as somewhat liberal, and 21% as moderate. The full responses are shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Ideological perception of the parties

Among adults

Party Perceived ideology
Very conservativeSomewhat conservativeModerateSomewhat liberalVery liberal
Republican party47331154
Democratic party28212643
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: [The Republican Party] In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: [The Democratic Party] In general, would you describe each of the following as…?

Partisans see their own party as less extreme than does the general public and see the opposite party as far more extreme than they do their own party. Among Republicans, 32% see their party as very conservative, while 69% of Democrats view the GOP as very conservative. Likewise, among Democrats, 16% see the Democratic party as very liberal, while 76% of Republicans see it as very liberal. Independents tend to not see such extreme ideology for either party. Table 20 shows how each partisan group views the parties.

Table 20: Ideological perception of the parties, by party ID

Among adults

Party IDPerceived ideology
Very conservativeSomewhat conservativeModerateSomewhat liberalVery liberal
Republican party
Republican32511231
Independent282527128
Democrat6917436
Democratic party
Republican2441476
Independent210412126
Democrat312303916
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: [The Republican Party] In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: [The Democratic Party] In general, would you describe each of the following as…?

Favorability ratings

Opinions on Pope Leo XIV is 36% favorable and 9% unfavorable, with 55% saying they  haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. A majority of Catholics have formed an opinion of Pope Leo, while a majority of all other religious groups have not yet. The Pope is seen very favorably among Catholics, with 57% favorable and 5% unfavorable. The full results are shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Favorability to Pope Leo XIV, by religious group

Among adults

Religious groupFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Born-again Protestant231562
Mainline Protestant37558
Roman Catholic57538
No religion32959
Other religion37657
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-16, 2025
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Pope Leo XIV, or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Favorability to Donald Trump has varied only slightly since his return to office in January. In July, 43% have a favorable opinion and 56% have an unfavorable opinion. The full trend is shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Trump favorability

Among adults

Poll datesFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
7/7-16/2543561
5/5-15/2543561
3/17-27/2546531
1/27-2/6/2544542
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: [Donald Trump] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Vice President JD Vance’s favorability rating has remained stable since January, with a small increase in unfavorable views since January and fewer without an opinion. In July, 38% view him favorably and 49% unfavorably, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Vance favorability

Among adults

Poll datesFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
7/7-16/25384912
5/5-15/25385012
3/17-27/25375012
1/27-2/6/25394417
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: [JD Vance] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Since leaving his role at the White House in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), favorability to Elon Musk has declined in July, with 32% favorable and 64% unfavorable, down from 38% favorable in May. These results are shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Musk favorability

Among adults

Poll datesFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
7/7-16/2532643
5/5-15/2538593
3/17-27/2538602
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: [Elon Musk] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Direction of the country

The percentage saying the country is headed in the right direction ticked down in July to 40%, with 60% who say it is off on the wrong track. In May, 42% said right direction and 58% said wrong track. The recent trend is shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Direction of the country

Among adults

Poll datesDirection of country
Right directionWrong track
7/7-16/254060
5/5-15/254258
3/17-27/254258
1/27-2/6/253862
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Family finances

Family financial situations have remained stable since January with only slight month-to-month changes. In July, 35% say they are living comfortably, 47% are just getting by, and 18% say they are struggling. The trend since January is shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Family financial situation

Among adults

Poll datesFamily financial situation
Living comfortablyJust getting byStruggling
7/7-16/25354718
5/5-15/25354817
3/17-27/25384715
1/27-2/6/25364817
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 7-16, 2025
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 7-16, 2025, interviewing 1,005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on public views of the Supreme Court) are held for release on July 24. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.