New Poll Results Illuminate a Year That Goes Beyond “Interesting”

Goodness, those Donald Trump poll numbers – they do take my breath away. And the Hillary Clinton numbers do much the same.

The release Thursday of a new set of Marquette Law School Poll results brought a wave of interesting insights into public opinion in Wisconsin, as it always does.

But the degree to which Trump and Clinton are polarizing figures, the subject of both great support and great opposition, goes beyond the word “interesting.” It’s vivid history being made in front of our eyes, especially with each in good position to win nomination. A Clinton-Trump showdown for the presidency in the fall – it’s an amazing but somewhat likely prospect.

Overall, the new Law School Poll found Trump increasing his lead among Republicans and those leaning Republican who are registered voters in Wisconsin. He was supported by 30%, with Marco Rubio at 20% and Ted Cruz at 19%.

On the Democratic side, the Wisconsin primary on April 5 continues to shape up as a toss-up. In a January round of Law School Poll results, Clinton led Bernie Sanders by two points. This time, Sanders led Clinton by one point.

But the breath-taking results lay behind those numbers. One example was in the “net favorability” ratings of the candidates. Professor Charles Franklin, director of the poll, said that if you subtract a candidate’s negative ratings from the positive ratings, you get a result indicating overall popularity.

For Trump, the net favorability rating was -43, meaning there were far more people who have a negative view of him than a positive one. Even among Republicans, his net favorability was zero, meaning as many don’t like him as like him.

Clinton had a net favorability of -18, which isn’t very good (Ted Cruz also was at -18). But it is striking how high her favorable ratings are among Democrats (+55) but how overwhelmingly negative they are (-89) among Republicans. Trump’s negative rating among Democrats was -76.

In other words, there is a strong prospect of a race in November between two candidates who are each liked by strong but somewhat narrow groups and disliked to an unusual degree, even when it comes to measuring how supporters of one party view the candidate of the other party.

A further measure of this: The poll asked how comfortable or uncomfortable people would be with each of the major candidates as president. John Kasich, Rubio, Sanders, and Cruz would make a lot of people “very uncomfortable” – 20 percent to 35 percent of Wisconsin voters in each instance. But for Clinton, the figure was 41 percent, including 81 percent of Republicans. And for Trump, it was 53 percent, including 82 percent of Democrats and 23 percent of Republicans.

Polarized feelings about Clinton and Trump show up in polling of head-to-head potential November matches. In short, Sanders does much better among independents than Clinton does, which means that he does much better in match-ups against Republicans than she does. For example, Clinton and Cruz were tied at 43 percent each, while Sanders beat Cruz by 18 points, 53 percent to 35 percent.

Clinton was essentially in a tie with Rubio as well as Cruz. But she led Trump by 10 points, 47 percent to 37 percent. On the other hand, Sanders led Trump by 20 points, 54 percent to 34 percent.

What a fall this may be for American politics.

A few other highlights from the poll:

With about six weeks until the April 5 election, the race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court appears close, with a large number of voters yet to learn enough about the candidates and make up their minds. Overall, Rebecca Bradley and JoAnne Kloppenburg each drew support from 30 percent of those polled, with 31 percent saying they didn’t know how they would vote.

There has been little change in results for the US Senate race between Republican incumbent Ron Johnson and Democratic challenge (and former senator) Russ Feingold. Feingold led in this round 49 percent to 37 percent, about the same as in several recent Law School Polls.

Gov. Scott Walker’s approval ratings remain below 40 percent (this time, 39 percent), as they have been in recent polls.

And, in ways that reflect a Democrat-Republican divide, 51 percent favor the US Senate taking up a nomination to the US Supreme Court this year, while 40 percent say action on that should wait until after the presidential election. In the Senate itself, Democrats generally have favored moving on a nomination this year while Republicans have been strongly opposed.

New Law School Poll Results: What Does the Present Say About the Future?

It was baseball great (and quotation legend) Yogi Berra who said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

And as Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, says, a poll is only a snapshot of public opinion at the time the questions were asked.

So let’s not get carried away with assuming what lies ahead, based on the results of the Marquette Law School Poll that was released on Thursday.

But the fresh round of poll results offers some windows for looking toward what is going to happen in Wisconsin politics, not only in 2016 but in following years.

The results involving the Republican and Democratic race for president attracted the most media attention, which is to be expected. Ironically, they might offer the least guidance among the poll subjects on what is going to happen in Wisconsin since so much is going to change between now and the Wisconsin primary in April.

And the Wisconsin presidential picture already has been volatile – two months ago, the Law School Poll found that Ben Carson was the leader among Republican candidates, and he is now well down the list. And who expected that Bernie Sanders would be such a formidable challenger to Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race, both nationally and in Wisconsin? Or that he would do much better than Clinton in head-to-head matches with leading republican candidates, as the polls results found? Where will this all lead?

But results on some other important matters racing Wisconsin have been less volatile in rounds of polling in recent months and, in some cases, going back several years. When we look at the present results, to what degree are we seeing the future? For example:

In Law School polls going back to last spring, Democratic challenger Russ Feingold has maintained a sizeable lead over Republican incumbent Ron Johnson. In the new poll, it was Feingold 50%, Johnson 37%. And favorable/unfavorable ratings of the two candidates continue to be more positive for Feingold. That includes the finding that 41% of those polled lacked any opinion on Johnson, who has been in the Senate that last five years. Is this the way the race is going to shape up? The unofficial physics of politics says the race will tighten. But the persistence of Feingold’s polling advantages could be significant.

What about Gov. Scott Walker’s poll numbers? Asked to rate his job performance, 38% approved and 57% disapproved in the new poll. That was in line with several recent rounds of Law School polls. Walker’s ratings were remarkably steady throughout 2012, 2013, 2014, and much of 2015, with about half of voters expressing approval, while disapproval ran a few points below half. But Walker’s approval slumped when his presidential campaign slumped. Some (including me) guessed his numbers would look a little better by now because he’s been traveling the state extensively. But they haven’t budged. Is he in a long-term weaker position that could shape his political future? The next election for governor isn’t until 2018, but only 36% of those in the new poll said they wanted to see him run, while 61% did not.

A proposal in the legislature to allow people to carry concealed weapons on school grounds looked a few weeks ago like it had considerable momentum, then seemed to stall. The new poll found strong opposition to the idea, even among those living in homes where a gun is kept. Does that suggest the idea won’t move forward?

In his State of the State address recently, Walker spoke positively about giving more state money to public schools. He has previously advocated tight control over state aid to schools, including cuts in some years. Did his position suggest a change in politics around school spending? Perhaps the results of the new poll shed light: Fifty-seven percent of those polled statewide said their local public schools get too little money from the state, while 30% said they get enough and 7% they get more than they need. Does that suggest a longer term change in support for school spending, which could affect work on the state budget in the first half of 2017?

How much are we seeing the future and not just the present in these results? As Franklin says, poll numbers only describe the present. But they do provide food for thought as major elections and big issues unfold, not only in 2016 but beyond.