All posts by Alan Borsuk

New Poll Shows Consistent Results Amid Changing Political News

With all the tumult in the political picture for the nation in recent months, it seemed to make sense to anticipate interesting changes in public opinion in Wisconsin when the first round of Marquette Law School Polls results in more than four months was released on Monday.

But perhaps the most interesting result of the poll was how much had not changed over time, not in the last few months and in some cases not in recent years.

President Donald Trump’s job ratings? Among 800 registered voters in Wisconsin who were polled from Feb. 25 through March 1, 43 percent approved of Trump’s performance and 50 percent disapproved. In June 2017, the numbers were 41 percent who approved and 51 percent who disapproved.

Gov. Scott Walker? In the new results, 47 percent approved of how he is doing his job, 47 percent disapproved. In June 2017, the numbers were 48 and 48. And the results are in line with the long-term close-to-even split on Walker.

With the large amount of interest in gun-related issues in the aftermath of the Feb. 14 killings at a high school in Florida, has there been change in opinion on gun control proposals? Not very much. The new poll found 81 percent of Wisconsin voters in favor of background checks for gun sales at gun shows and in private settings. The last time the poll asked the question, in June 2016, the figure was 85 percent. A ban on assault-style weapons was supported by 56 percent in the new poll; in March 2013, the support level was 53 percent.

Immigration issues drew similar results in the new poll as in earlier polls. The new results showed 71 percent in favor of a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants currently working in the United States, and 86 percent in favor of a path to citizenship for those who are undocumented but who were brought to the United States as children.

But if the consistency of opinion was one of the main take-aways from the new poll, there were some results that showed change or that shed light on fresh issues. Three examples:

For one, the poll examined sentiment on the state offering more than $3 billion in support for building the Foxconn flat-panel display factory in Racine County. Overall, 38 percent of voters statewide think the plant will provide at least as much benefit as the state’s investment, while 49 percent think the state will pay more in incentives than the plant will be worth. Sentiment on Foxconn was more favorable in the Milwaukee area (outside the city of Milwaukee) than elsewhere in the state. Charles Franklin, director of the Law School Poll and the Law School’s professor of law and public policy, said that result and related results on other Foxconn questions shed light on how people outside the Milwaukee and Madison areas are unhappy with policies they don’t see as benefitting their parts of the state.

A second point: The poll showed a noteworthy shift in sentiment toward funding public schools. In March 2014, voters were asked which was a higher priority for them, holding down property taxes or increasing spending on public schools. Forty-nine percent said reducing property taxes, while 46 percent said increased school spending. But in the new poll, 63 percent favored school spending increases while 33 percent chose reducing property taxes. That shift sheds light on the positions Walker and Republican legislators have taken in the last year that increased school spending.

A third point: There were signs of shifts in the partisan alignment of voters, including fewer voters identifying as Democrats and more identifying as independents who lean Democratic. But the percentage of votes who said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting in this year’s elections was higher among those planning to vote for Democrats than among those planning to vote for Republicans. Franklin said that could prove significant, just as at some past points greater enthusiasm among Republican voters preceded favorable election results for Republicans.

It was clear from the results that large percentages of registered voters have not tuned in yet to the races for governor and a United States Senate seat that will be on the ballot in November. Large majorities of voters had no opinions on the field of Democratic candidates for governor or the two main Republican candidates for the Senate.

Franklin said there is still a long way to go to the fall election and public awareness of the candidates will rise. He pointed out the Tammy Baldwin, who will be running as a Democratic incumbent in this year’s Senate election, had low name recognition at this point in 2012, when she went on to win.

However, the race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court will be decided in a month and fewer than a quarter of voters had an opinion, favorable or unfavorable, on either of the candidates who will be on the ballot, Rebecca Dallet or Michael Screnock.

New Poll Gives Vivid Look into Polarized Political Perceptions

Once again, a lesson in the two worlds of Wisconsin. That’s one way to describe the new round of results from the Marquette Law School Poll released on Wednesday.

In one world, Donald Trump is doing well as president. In another, he is not. In one, he is keeping his promises. In another he is not. Opinions on Governor Scott Walker or Senators Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin or House Speaker Paul Ryan? Split evenly. In all of these instances, Republicans are firmly on one side, Democrats firmly on the other. And the divisions generally show little change since March, the time of the most recent prior Law School Poll.

How sharp is the divide? A few results:

Overall, 41 percent of the 800 Wisconsin registered voters who were interviewed approved of the way Trump is doing his job, while 51 percent disapproved. But among those identifying themselves as Republican or leaning Republican, Trump’s work was approved by 85 percent, with 8 percent disapproving. Among Democrats, 3 percent approved of how Trump was doing as president while 95 percent disapproved.

The percentage overall who disapproved of Trump was the same as the 41 percent in the poll in March. The disapproval figure in March was 47 percent, compared to 51 percent now, a change that occurred as the percentage with no opinion went down from 11 to 7.

Professor Charles Franklin, director of the poll, said at the “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” program at which results were unveiled that even Democratic President Barack Obama, as polarizing as he was, generally had approval ratings among Republicans of 10 or 12 percent, compared to the 3 percent rating for Trump among Democrats.

The Republican/Democratic schism showed up in other questions.

Do you approve of Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate change accord? Overall, 34 percent approved and 54 disapproved. Among Republicans, 65 percent approved of withdrawing. Among Democrats, it was 2 percent.

Is Trump keeping his promises overall? Republicans, 86% yes, Democrats 84% no. Is Trump someone you would describe as honest? Republicans, 69% yes. Democrats, 95% no.

What should be the outcome of the heated debate about changing national health care laws? Among Republicans, 63 percent favor repealing and replacing the 2010 law often referred to as Obamacare, and 8 percent favored repealing it and not replacing it. Among Democrats, only 2 percent favored repealing and replacing, 2 percent favored repealing and not replacing, and 91 percent either leaving the law alone or keeping it but improving it.

Opinions among those identifying themselves as independents fell overall somewhere in the middle of the Republican and Democratic divide.

When it came to several prominent Wisconsin politicians, opinion was (you guessed it) evenly divided.

For Walker, that was actually good news. Overall, 48 percent approved of how he is doing his job and 48 percent disapproved. But that is the first time since October 2014 that Walker’s approval rating was not lower than his disapproval rating.

For Ryan, disapproval has grown substantially nationwide and it went up (but not as dramatically) in Wisconsin. In this poll, 44 percent had favorable views of him and 44 percent had unfavorable views. Last October, 45 percent had favorable opinions of Ryan and 38 percent unfavorable.

Baldwin the Democratic senator who races a re-election race in 2018, had an approval rate of 38 percent – and a disapproval rate of 38 percent. The work of Republican Johnson, who won re-election in 2016, was approved by 39 percent and disapproved by 32 percent.

Polarization has been a crucial and growing aspect of politics in Wisconsin and nationwide in recent years. It seems often as if people have not only differing opinions but differing views of facts and realities.

Given how politics have unfolded, the intensity of divisions shown in the new poll results is not a surprise. But it makes the new results an important and vivid snapshot of political reality.

The Polling Ends; Now Do Your Duty and Vote, Franklin Says

It was the final release of Marquette Law School Poll results before the Nov. 8 election. That means Wednesday’s “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” program attracted a lot of attention from news organizations and aficionados of understanding politics in Wisconsin and beyond.

That means that the reputation of the Law School poll, which has been built on a great record since 2012 of being very close to the mark in calling elections, is about to be put to the test again. The comparison between the final results and the actual outcome of an election is taken by many (not always fairly) as the measure of a poll.

And that means that Charles Franklin, the director of the Law School Poll and professor of law and public policy, had a few broader thoughts to share at the session in the Appellate Courtroom of Eckstein Hall.

Franklin opened the program with thanks to alumni whose donations have supported the poll for almost five years, and he thanked John Johnson, who works with him on the poll and related research.

“And finally,” Franklin said, “maybe most importantly in some sense, I want to thank the 36,152 people who have taken the time to respond to the poll since 2012. This poll couldn’t exist without people being willing to share their views about public affairs and help us all collectively understand public opinion in the state. For all the flaws that polling can have and its limitations, it’s really an important civic-participation act to take part in sharing opinion. So thank you very much to those 36,000-plus respondents.”

The poll results themselves showed small, but perhaps significant changes in the state of the two major races that Wisconsin voters will decide: Whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will earn the state’s 10 electoral votes and whether the re-match for a US Senate seat will be won by Russ Feingold or Ron Johnson. In 2010, Johnson defeated Feingold, who had held the seat for the prior 18 years.

In brief (very brief – for more, read the summary on the Law School’s web site or any of many news accounts, such as this one and this one from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel), Clinton was leading Trump by six percentage points, 46% to 40%, among likely voters in Wisconsin. Feingold led Johnson by one point, which is effectively a tie. Despite major developments such as the news that the FBI was investigating new material related to Clinton’s e-mail, preferences in the presidential race hadn’t changed much, although there were indications that some Republicans who had been reluctant to vote for Trump are now deciding to do so. Perceptions of the personal traits of Clinton and Trump, as well as Feingold, have changed little in recent rounds of polling, but perceptions of Johnson have improved gradually and perhaps significantly.

At the end of the hour, the moderator, Mike Gousha, the Law School’s distinguished fellow in law and public policy, asked Franklin for final thoughts.

Franklin summarized the state of the two races:

“I think number one is, of course, the presidential race looks relatively stable but maybe a little bit tighter. But the Senate race has clearly been tightening . . . . We end up on the Senate side with a race that clearly is . . . . not just within the margin of error but is right on the knife’s edge and could go either way.”

Franklin said that other polls in recent days have put Feingold ahead by wider margin than the Marquette Law School Poll, while one released on Tuesday had the race as a tie.

“That really shows why it’s important to have more than one poll,” Franklin said. “I appreciate that people think of the Marquette poll as a thing to look at here, but every poll can be wrong and any pollster who polls long enough is going to be wrong in close races. I hope that’s not this time for me, but it could be.

“And the most important thing is that nobody’s vote counts for talking to me. The only votes that get counted are the ones that get put in a ballot box, either early or late. I hope that the function of our poll is to put some context in the election, help illuminate what people are thinking and how things are moving.

“But there’s only one thing to do, whether you like the results or don’t like the results, and that is to go out and make results, come Tuesday. So, go, do your duty.”