All posts by Alan Borsuk

New Poll Gives Vivid Look into Polarized Political Perceptions

Once again, a lesson in the two worlds of Wisconsin. That’s one way to describe the new round of results from the Marquette Law School Poll released on Wednesday.

In one world, Donald Trump is doing well as president. In another, he is not. In one, he is keeping his promises. In another he is not. Opinions on Governor Scott Walker or Senators Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin or House Speaker Paul Ryan? Split evenly. In all of these instances, Republicans are firmly on one side, Democrats firmly on the other. And the divisions generally show little change since March, the time of the most recent prior Law School Poll.

How sharp is the divide? A few results:

Overall, 41 percent of the 800 Wisconsin registered voters who were interviewed approved of the way Trump is doing his job, while 51 percent disapproved. But among those identifying themselves as Republican or leaning Republican, Trump’s work was approved by 85 percent, with 8 percent disapproving. Among Democrats, 3 percent approved of how Trump was doing as president while 95 percent disapproved.

The percentage overall who disapproved of Trump was the same as the 41 percent in the poll in March. The disapproval figure in March was 47 percent, compared to 51 percent now, a change that occurred as the percentage with no opinion went down from 11 to 7.

Professor Charles Franklin, director of the poll, said at the “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” program at which results were unveiled that even Democratic President Barack Obama, as polarizing as he was, generally had approval ratings among Republicans of 10 or 12 percent, compared to the 3 percent rating for Trump among Democrats.

The Republican/Democratic schism showed up in other questions.

Do you approve of Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate change accord? Overall, 34 percent approved and 54 disapproved. Among Republicans, 65 percent approved of withdrawing. Among Democrats, it was 2 percent.

Is Trump keeping his promises overall? Republicans, 86% yes, Democrats 84% no. Is Trump someone you would describe as honest? Republicans, 69% yes. Democrats, 95% no.

What should be the outcome of the heated debate about changing national health care laws? Among Republicans, 63 percent favor repealing and replacing the 2010 law often referred to as Obamacare, and 8 percent favored repealing it and not replacing it. Among Democrats, only 2 percent favored repealing and replacing, 2 percent favored repealing and not replacing, and 91 percent either leaving the law alone or keeping it but improving it.

Opinions among those identifying themselves as independents fell overall somewhere in the middle of the Republican and Democratic divide.

When it came to several prominent Wisconsin politicians, opinion was (you guessed it) evenly divided.

For Walker, that was actually good news. Overall, 48 percent approved of how he is doing his job and 48 percent disapproved. But that is the first time since October 2014 that Walker’s approval rating was not lower than his disapproval rating.

For Ryan, disapproval has grown substantially nationwide and it went up (but not as dramatically) in Wisconsin. In this poll, 44 percent had favorable views of him and 44 percent had unfavorable views. Last October, 45 percent had favorable opinions of Ryan and 38 percent unfavorable.

Baldwin the Democratic senator who races a re-election race in 2018, had an approval rate of 38 percent – and a disapproval rate of 38 percent. The work of Republican Johnson, who won re-election in 2016, was approved by 39 percent and disapproved by 32 percent.

Polarization has been a crucial and growing aspect of politics in Wisconsin and nationwide in recent years. It seems often as if people have not only differing opinions but differing views of facts and realities.

Given how politics have unfolded, the intensity of divisions shown in the new poll results is not a surprise. But it makes the new results an important and vivid snapshot of political reality.

The Polling Ends; Now Do Your Duty and Vote, Franklin Says

It was the final release of Marquette Law School Poll results before the Nov. 8 election. That means Wednesday’s “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” program attracted a lot of attention from news organizations and aficionados of understanding politics in Wisconsin and beyond.

That means that the reputation of the Law School poll, which has been built on a great record since 2012 of being very close to the mark in calling elections, is about to be put to the test again. The comparison between the final results and the actual outcome of an election is taken by many (not always fairly) as the measure of a poll.

And that means that Charles Franklin, the director of the Law School Poll and professor of law and public policy, had a few broader thoughts to share at the session in the Appellate Courtroom of Eckstein Hall.

Franklin opened the program with thanks to alumni whose donations have supported the poll for almost five years, and he thanked John Johnson, who works with him on the poll and related research.

“And finally,” Franklin said, “maybe most importantly in some sense, I want to thank the 36,152 people who have taken the time to respond to the poll since 2012. This poll couldn’t exist without people being willing to share their views about public affairs and help us all collectively understand public opinion in the state. For all the flaws that polling can have and its limitations, it’s really an important civic-participation act to take part in sharing opinion. So thank you very much to those 36,000-plus respondents.”

The poll results themselves showed small, but perhaps significant changes in the state of the two major races that Wisconsin voters will decide: Whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will earn the state’s 10 electoral votes and whether the re-match for a US Senate seat will be won by Russ Feingold or Ron Johnson. In 2010, Johnson defeated Feingold, who had held the seat for the prior 18 years.

In brief (very brief – for more, read the summary on the Law School’s web site or any of many news accounts, such as this one and this one from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel), Clinton was leading Trump by six percentage points, 46% to 40%, among likely voters in Wisconsin. Feingold led Johnson by one point, which is effectively a tie. Despite major developments such as the news that the FBI was investigating new material related to Clinton’s e-mail, preferences in the presidential race hadn’t changed much, although there were indications that some Republicans who had been reluctant to vote for Trump are now deciding to do so. Perceptions of the personal traits of Clinton and Trump, as well as Feingold, have changed little in recent rounds of polling, but perceptions of Johnson have improved gradually and perhaps significantly.

At the end of the hour, the moderator, Mike Gousha, the Law School’s distinguished fellow in law and public policy, asked Franklin for final thoughts.

Franklin summarized the state of the two races:

“I think number one is, of course, the presidential race looks relatively stable but maybe a little bit tighter. But the Senate race has clearly been tightening . . . . We end up on the Senate side with a race that clearly is . . . . not just within the margin of error but is right on the knife’s edge and could go either way.”

Franklin said that other polls in recent days have put Feingold ahead by wider margin than the Marquette Law School Poll, while one released on Tuesday had the race as a tie.

“That really shows why it’s important to have more than one poll,” Franklin said. “I appreciate that people think of the Marquette poll as a thing to look at here, but every poll can be wrong and any pollster who polls long enough is going to be wrong in close races. I hope that’s not this time for me, but it could be.

“And the most important thing is that nobody’s vote counts for talking to me. The only votes that get counted are the ones that get put in a ballot box, either early or late. I hope that the function of our poll is to put some context in the election, help illuminate what people are thinking and how things are moving.

“But there’s only one thing to do, whether you like the results or don’t like the results, and that is to go out and make results, come Tuesday. So, go, do your duty.”

Poll Shows State’s Presidential Race Is Tight, So Where’s the Hot Campaigning?

A new round of results from the Marquette Law School Poll, released on Tuesday, provided food for thought about one of the many curious aspects of this year’s presidential election.

The spotlighted finding of the poll was that the contest between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton is tight in Wisconsin, a notch tighter now than three weeks ago and definitely tighter than six weeks ago. Among likely voters, Clinton leads Trump by two percentage points, 44 percent to 42 percent. Among all registered voters, Clinton’s lead is five points, 43 percent to 38 percent. In either case, the race is close and the portion of voters who say they will vote and who are undecided who to vote for is larger than the gap between the candidates.

So where’s the hot campaigning? Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and a handful of other states are seeing a lot of Clinton and Trump in person and far more energized campaigns overall. Neither of the candidates has been in Wisconsin recently and the ground campaigns and television buys have been quiet here, especially compared to some past presidential campaigns. With 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin is neither the biggest nor smallest prize in the race, but those votes could make a big difference to the outcome, as some experts see the national map of the race.

Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Law School Poll and the Law School’s professor law and public policy, was asked about the paradox of a close race and tepid campaigning by a television reporter after the “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” program at which the poll results were released. Franklin offered no simple answer. There has been an intense focus on several other states. And a factor is Trump’s unusual campaign, which is built almost entirely on personal appearances at rallies and news coverage of the campaign rather than ”the ground game” and paid television ads at the heart of conventional campaigns. Franklin also said during the program with Gousha that the presidential debates, which begin on Monday, Sept. 26, could have more impact on the race this year than in many other presidential contests.

The results released Wednesday offered some insights into what voters are thinking in Wisconsin. Among them:

The campaigns of Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are attracting some attention and support, but their poll numbers remain fairly small. And the margin between Clinton and Trump remains almost the same whether voters are asked to choose between only the two major candidates or between all four candidates.

A large majority of Republicans and independents who lean Republican (68 percent) still say they would have liked the party to nominate someone other than Trump. And more Wisconsin Democrats and people leaning Democratic (48 percent) wish Bernie Sanders had been nominated by the party than Hillary Clinton (43 percent). About a third of voters who wish someone other than Trump or Clinton were their party’s nominee indicated they would not vote for either of the major candidates.

There has been some moderation in views about the two presidential candidates, but they each still has high negative numbers. In this poll, Clinton is viewed favorably by 43 percent of all registered voters and unfavorably by 50 percent, compared to figures of 35 percent and 58 percent in late August. Trump is viewed favorably by 31 percent and unfavorably by 61 percent, compared to late August figures of 28 percent and 63 percent.

A majority of voters (51 percent in this poll) continue to say they would be “very uncomfortable” with Trump as president, while 42 percent would be “very uncomfortable” with Clinton as president.

In the US Senate race between Republican incumbent Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger (and former senator) Russ Feingold, Feingold continues to lead. The new results had Feingold over Johnson 47 percent to 41 percent among likely voters and 46 percent to 40 percent among all registered voters. Those margins compared to figures from three weeks ago of a three point Feingold lead among likely voters and a four point lead among all registered voters.

With a bit under seven weeks to go until the election, a campaign season that has brought so many surprises and raised so many questions is likely to have more surprises to spring and questions to consider. For Wisconsin, a key question will be whether the closeness of the presidential race will be matched by the energy of the campaigns themselves and the heat of public interest the race generates.