MILWAUKEE
— Following the announcement that the federal investigation by special counsel
Robert Mueller has concluded, a new Marquette University Law School Poll finds
a range of reactions to what is known of those conclusions, as well as modest
changes in evaluations of President Donald Trump.
Forty-six
percent of registered voters in Wisconsin approve of the job Trump is doing as
president, while 52 percent disapprove. In January, 44 percent approved and 52
percent disapproved.
Support
for reelecting the president is also little changed since January — 28 percent
say that they would definitely vote to reelect Trump, and 14 percent would
probably vote to reelect him. Another 8 percent say that they would probably
vote for someone else, and 46 percent would definitely vote for someone
else. In January, 27 percent said that they would definitely vote to reelect
Trump, 12 percent said that they would probably vote for him, 8 percent that
they would probably vote for someone else and 49 percent that would definitely
vote for someone else.
Based
on what respondents have heard about Mueller’s report so far, 42 percent say
they have a great deal of confidence that the investigation was fair and
impartial, 25 percent say they have some confidence, 10 percent have only a
little confidence and 14 percent say they have no confidence at all in the
fairness of the investigation. When the question was last asked in early
October 2018, 31 percent said they had a great deal of confidence in the
fairness of the investigation, 19 percent had some confidence, 13 percent had
only a little confidence and 26 percent said they had no confidence at all.
Confidence
in the Mueller investigation rose among Republicans and independents, while it
declined among Democrats. Among Republicans, the percentage expressing a great
deal of confidence rose from 12 percent in October to 43 percent in April,
while those having no confidence at all declined from 38 percent in October to
19 percent in April. Among independents, the proportion of those who said they
had a great deal of confidence increased from 29 percent in October to 41 percent
in April. Independents with no confidence in the investigation declined from 25
percent to 14 percent. Among Democrats, those expressing a great deal of
confidence declined from 58 percent in October to 45 percent in April, but
those Democrats with no confidence also declined from 13 percent to 8 percent,
as more Democrats picked the “some confidence” or “only a little confidence”
options.
While
the full Mueller report had not been released at the time of the April poll,
respondents express a range of conclusions based on what they have heard about
the report.
A
majority, 60 percent, think that Russia interfered with the 2016 presidential
election, while 32 percent think Russia did not interfere.
Thirty-five
percent think the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to influence the 2016
election, while a majority, 53 percent, think the campaign did not collude.
Opinion
is evenly divided on whether Trump tried to obstruct the investigation, with
45 percent saying he did and 45 percent saying he did not.
While
39 percent say the investigation clears Trump of any wrongdoing, 54 percent say
they believe questions still exist concerning the president’s behavior.
Support
for beginning hearings on impeachment stands at 29 percent, down from
33 percent in January. Those saying that there is not enough cause for
impeachment hearings rose to 65 percent in April from 59 percent in January.
Those
who say “honest” describes President Trump rose to 35 percent in this April
poll from 31 percent in January. Fifty-nine percent in the new poll say
“honest” does not describe him, compared to 62 percent in January.
The
poll was conducted April 3-7, 2019. The sample included 800 registered voters
in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of
+/- 4 percentage points. Eight questions were asked of one half of the sample
and seven were asked of the other half. Questions on Form A have a sample size
of 404 and a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points. Questions
on Form B have a sample size of 396 and a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage
points. The half-sample items are listed at the end of this release. The
Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of Democrats and
independents who do not lean to the Republican party. That sample size is 411
with a margin of error of +/-5.6 percentage points.
Democratic
presidential candidates
Among
12 current or potential Democratic presidential candidates, Bernie Sanders and
Joe Biden are top choices among Democrats or independents who do not lean to
the Republican party, with Sanders a top choice of 32 percent and Biden a top
choice of 29 percent. Elizabeth Warren is a top choice of 17 percent. In
January, Sanders was a top choice of 23 percent, Biden a top choice of 32
percent and Warren a top choice of 15 percent.
Support
for all 12 candidates included in the survey is shown in Table 1. Respondents
were asked for each candidate if that person would be a top choice, an
acceptable choice, someone they would not support, or if they haven’t heard
enough about the candidate yet.
Table
1: Support for Democratic candidates, in order of “a top choice”
|
A top
choice
|
An
acceptable choice
|
Would not
support
|
Haven’t
heard enough
|
Sanders
|
32
|
39
|
20
|
7
|
Biden
|
29
|
43
|
19
|
6
|
Warren
|
17
|
35
|
18
|
28
|
Harris
|
11
|
27
|
13
|
45
|
O’Rourke
|
10
|
27
|
14
|
45
|
Booker
|
9
|
29
|
12
|
46
|
Klobuchar
|
8
|
26
|
12
|
50
|
Buttigieg
|
7
|
18
|
8
|
63
|
Castro
|
4
|
18
|
11
|
63
|
Inslee
|
2
|
11
|
8
|
72
|
Gillibrand
|
2
|
21
|
16
|
57
|
Hickenlooper
|
1
|
15
|
10
|
67
|
The
January poll asked about eight of these candidates. Those results are shown in
Table 2.
Table
2: January support for Democratic candidates, in order of “a top choice”
|
A top
choice
|
An
acceptable choice
|
Would not
support
|
Haven’t
heard enough
|
Biden
|
32
|
44
|
16
|
7
|
Sanders
|
23
|
38
|
28
|
9
|
Warren
|
15
|
36
|
17
|
30
|
O’Rourke
|
12
|
21
|
8
|
56
|
Booker
|
8
|
24
|
8
|
56
|
Harris
|
8
|
23
|
11
|
54
|
Klobuchar
|
5
|
20
|
8
|
62
|
Castro
|
4
|
16
|
10
|
65
|
Opinion of
the governor and legislature
After
three months in office, Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 47 percent,
with disapproval at 37 percent. Fifteen percent say they don’t have an opinion.
In January, 39 percent approved, 22 percent disapproved and 38 percent
lacked an opinion.
Fifty
percent say they approve of the job the Wisconsin legislature is doing, while
38 percent say they disapprove and 11 percent say they do not know. In
January, 52 percent approved, 31 percent disapproved and 16 percent lacked
an opinion.
Asked
about cooperation between the governor and legislative leaders, 48 percent say
Evers is trying to cooperate with legislative leaders, while 37 percent say he
really isn’t interested in cooperating. Twenty-five percent say legislative
leaders are trying to cooperate with Evers, while 57 percent say they are not
really interested in cooperating. In January, 47 percent said Evers was trying
to cooperate and 25 percent said he was not, while 22 percent said legislative
leaders were trying to cooperate and 46 percent said they were not interested
in cooperating.
State issues
Fifty-nine
percent of voters say marijuana use should be legal, while 36 percent say it
should not be legal. A substantial majority, 83 percent, say use of marijuana
for medical purposes with a doctor’s prescription should be legal, with 12
percent saying it should not be.
Seventy-four
percent support a major increase in state aid for special education, while
19 percent oppose such an increase.
Forty-one
percent support a freeze on the number of students in voucher schools and a
suspension of new independent charter schools, while 46 percent are opposed.
Seventy
percent say the state should accept federal funds to expand Medicaid coverage,
while 23 percent oppose the expansion.
More
respondents prefer to keep gas taxes and registration fees at the current level
(57 percent) than support increasing the gas tax and fees in order to
increase spending on roads and highways (39 percent).
Support
for an increase in the minimum wage stands at 57 percent, with 38 percent
opposing an increase.
Opinion
has recently fluctuated concerning Foxconn. Forty-one percent say the state
subsidies to Foxconn will be worth the cost, while 47 percent think the project
will cost more than it is worth. When asked in late-October 2018, 41 percent
said support of the project would be worth it and 40 percent said it would not
be worth the cost. In an early-October 2018 poll, 38 percent said it would be
worth the cost and 48 percent said it would not be worth it.
Criminal
justice issues
Forty-nine
percent support raising the age at which defendants are considered adults in
criminal cases from 17 to 18, while 45 percent oppose increasing the age.
Seventy-one
percent favor eliminating mandatory minimum sentences, giving judges the
ability to set sentences on a case-by-case basis, while 20 percent oppose
eliminating mandatory minimum sentences.
Sixty-five
percent support allowing offenders to petition judges to expunge or clear their
record after their sentences are completed in cases of nonviolent, lower-level
offenses. Twenty-six percent oppose this proposal.
Fifty-five
percent agree that after serving two-thirds of a sentence, a prisoner should be
released from prison to less costly supervision if the prisoner can demonstrate
he or she is no longer a threat to society. Thirty-five percent oppose such
early release from prison.
Expanding
job training for prisoners is supported by 88 percent and opposed by 9 percent.
Increased
use of treatment programs and of alternatives to jail for offenders with drug
or alcohol issues is supported by 78 percent and opposed by 16 percent.
Increased
state spending for prosecutors and public defenders is supported by 50 percent,
with 37 percent opposing a spending increase.
State of the
state
Fifty-two
percent of respondents say the state is headed in the right direction, while
40 percent say it is off on the wrong track. In January, 57 percent said
the state was going in the right direction and 33 percent said it was on the
wrong track.
Table
3 presents the favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the
percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.
Table
3: Favorability ratings of elected officials
|
Favorable
|
Unfavorable
|
Haven’t
heard enough
|
Don’t know
|
Tony
Evers
|
48
|
35
|
12
|
5
|
Donald
Trump
|
45
|
51
|
1
|
2
|
Tammy
Baldwin
|
44
|
43
|
10
|
3
|
Ron
Johnson
|
40
|
32
|
24
|
5
|
Scott
Fitzgerald
|
22
|
22
|
46
|
10
|
Robin
Vos
|
14
|
21
|
56
|
10
|
About
the Marquette Law School Poll
The
Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in
Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by
landline or cell phone, April 3-7, 2019. The margin of error is +/-4 percentage
points for the full sample.
The
Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of Democrats and
independents who do not lean to the Republican party. That sample size is 411
with a margin of error of +/-5.6 percentage points.
Eight
issue questions were asked of half the sample (Form A) and seven were asked of
the other half-sample (Form B). Questions on Form A have a sample size of 404
and a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a
sample size of 396 and a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points.
Form
A questions covered legalization of marijuana, Medicaid expansion, opinion of
Foxconn, minimum wage increase, increasing funding for special education,
increasing spending for prosecutors and public defenders, increasing gas taxes,
and a freeze on vouchers. Form B items covered medical marijuana, early release
from prison, mandatory minimum sentences, expungement of criminal records,
treatment alternatives for those with drug and alcohol issues, expanding job
training for prisoners, and raising the age to charge juveniles as adults.
The
partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45
percent Republican, 44 percent Democratic and 10 percent independent. The
partisan makeup of the current sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is
30 percent Republican, 29 percent Democratic and 40 percent independent.
Since
January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party,
in the Marquette poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic,
with 9 percent independent. Partisanship excluding those who lean to a party
has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent
independent.
The
entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by
demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.