Walker Leading in Wisconsin Republican Nomination Race, but His Job Approval Falls

Still in the lead, but with cause for concern on the home front. That was the overall picture for Gov. Scott Walker as the Marquette Law School Poll on Thursday released its first wave of results on political issues since April.

For Hillary Clinton, frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for president, the picture was: Still in the lead, but with some cause for concern on the Wisconsin front.

And for Democratic US Senate candidate Russ Feingold and Republican incumbent Senator Ron Johnson, the picture was of a race that is likely to end up being tight and intensely fought.

Walker remained the presidential candidate of choice for Wisconsin Republicans and independents leaning toward voting Republican. But, according to the poll, he had the support of 40 percent of the state’s Republican voters in April and the support of 25 percent in August. In the intervening time, the field of Republican candidates grew larger, there were a lot of developments in the campaign, and, polls of national opinion and opinion in key primary states indicated Walker had slipped in popularity in recent weeks.

But Walker’s 25 percent support still led the Republican field among Wisconsin voters, with Ben Carson at 13 percent, Donald Trump 9 percent, Ted Cruz 8 percent, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio each 7 percent, and Jeb Bush 6 percent.

But opinion of how Walker is doing his job as governor was decidedly more negative than positive. In 2012, 2013 and 2014, Walker’s approval rate generally was steady around 50 percent or slightly lower. But in the April round of Marquette Law School polling, his approval rate fell to 41%, with 56% disapproving of his job performance. And in the new round, it slipped to 39% approval, with 57% disapproving.

In the race for the Democratic nomination for president, Clinton was the favorite of 44 percent of Wisconsin Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, with Bernie Sanders the choice of 32 percent and Joe Biden the choice of 12 percent. But her support was down from the 58 percent figure in April’s poll. In April, Elizabeth Warren, who is not running, had 14 percent support, and Biden had 12 percent support. Sanders wasn’t included in the April poll.

In match-ups against several leading Republican candidates, Clinton won, but, where there was comparable data, her leads were a bit smaller than in April. In the new poll, Clinton lead 47-42 over Bush, 52-42 over Walker, 50-38 over Cruz, and 51-35 over Trump.

In the April poll, Feingold had an eye-catching 16 point lead, 54-38, over Johnson in a race between a former senator and a current senator. In the August poll, Feingold led 47-42, a sign that a close race lies ahead. Among the interesting details in the results was the continuing high percentage of voters (in the upper 30s) who didn’t express an opinion on whether they had favorable or unfavorable views of Johnson.

In other poll results, the state’s new ban on almost all abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy drew 48 percent support and 44 percent opposition; the US Supreme Court’s decision approving gay marriage was supported by 52 percent of those polled, with 40 percent opposed; and 58 percent of those polled said the $250 million reduction in state aid to the University of Wisconsin system could hurt education quality, while 38 percent thought the system could absorb the cut.

Broad Support for Regional Economic Cooperation Found in New Law School Poll

A substantial majority of people in the Chicago “megacity” – the region stretching from the Milwaukee area, across metropolitan Chicago, and into northwest Indiana – want to see their political leaders make a priority of action that benefits the region as a whole, and not just actions focused on the needs of their own area.

But what does that mean when you get into details? How does that translate into reality?

That main finding of broad support for regional cooperation and those two questions shaped a groundbreaking conference at Marquette Law School on Tuesday. “Public Attitudes in the Chicago Megacity: Who are we and what are the possibilities?” focused on the results of what is believed to be the first extensive poll of residents of the sections of Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana that are part of the “megacity.” The conference was sponsored by the Law School and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Describing the broad conclusions, Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll and the Law School’s professor of law and public policy, said, “What we see is a substantial majority, over 70% in Illinois and Indiana, and 61% in Wisconsin, who say they would rather see cooperation among the governors and the elected officials,” than for political leaders to focus only on their own states’ concerns.

Translating that into specific policy areas, Franklin said, the poll found strong support for regional approaches to licensing of professionals in many occupations and to planning of transportation work. But there was less support for placing regional concerns about local concerns when it comes to efforts to attract businesses or promote tourism.

The conference was a follow-up to a 2012 conference at the Law School that focused on a report from the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD study said the Chicago region was one of the world’s major economic centers, but growth was slower than in many other regions in the world. The report advocated focusing on regional approaches to improving transportation, education, and economic development focused on “green” industries such as water.

At Tuesday’s conference, Franklin described the new poll results in a conversation with Mike Gousha, the Law School’s distinguished fellow in law and public policy. A detailed report by Franklin on the poll results was also released Tuesday.

Franklin said one important finding was that sentiment on a large number of questions didn’t vary much overall from one state to another in the region.

“You might have thought that Illinois and Indiana and Wisconsin would differ from one another on things that realty matter, like the Packers versus Bears,” Franklin said at the conference.

”Of course, there are things that we are deeply divided on between our states. But what you will see throughout this report and throughout this presentation today is how modest those differences really are.”

He added, ”It’s less state-versus-state (when it comes to) dramatic differences. What it really is is the differences within all of the states.” Divisions over issues and whether to work on them regionally all along lines that have definite partisan and economic components.

”Those political divisions are the things that make regional cooperation harder, but it’s not because Illinois and Wisconsin differ dramatically from each other,” Franklin said. “It’s that, within our states, we differ among ourselves on what we think the best courses of policy are.”

Franklin’s report described poll findings related to transportation, education, and other concerns. People gave opinions on how they chose the field of work they were in, how they were trained, how willing they were to consider entrepreneurial or career risks, their satisfaction with their neighborhoods, and other matters.

Franklin focused on findings that showed regional differences in people’s highest level of schooling, including the percentage of adults who have only a high school diploma or did not graduate high school. That figure was 50% in Indiana, 40% in Wisconsin, and 39% in Illinois.

He also pointed to results that showed that about a quarter of adults in Illinois and Indiana and a third in Wisconsin had received technical training beyond high school. That suggested that, when it comes to career development, technical training plays a bigger role than many people think.

Two panel discussions, one involving leaders in the private and non-profit sector and one involving mayors of three cities in the “megacity,” followed Franklin’s presentation.

Karen Freeman-Wilson, mayor of Gary, Indiana, expressed skepticism about the level of support of regional cooperation shown in poll results.

“I thought people were being a little aspirational in their answers,” she said. “It is wholly inconsistent with what I have experienced as mayor.” For example, she said, both among residents of Gary and other parts of northwestern Indiana, she said that she had found resistance to thinking about what was good for the region, rather than just for an individual community, when it came to improving passenger rail services. Freeman-Wilson said she heard from many people who said things such as, “Why are you making decisions that don’t directly benefit Gary citizens?”

She said she saw differences in the poll results between what people said on broader questions and what they said when asked about specific issues, such as recruiting businesses.

John Dickert, mayor of Racine, has been a strong advocate for regional work on economic development and transportation. He said if progress is going to be made in regional cooperation, mayors will play a pivotal role. Why mayors?

“Because the reality is that nobody else is doing it. Washington definitely is not doing it, and our state level governments, we can’t even get three governors who are in the same aisle (politically) to agree,” Dickert said. “So we’re going to have to do it as mayors, because we’re really in essence the only people who are getting anything done.”

Dickert stressed the importance of working together as a region. He said, “I will tell you this. If we don’t start building regionally and if we don’t listen to the OECD, and if we don’t listen to logic, which is if you create a transportation system that is efficient and effective, you save money, cut taxes, and allow for opportunity, if we don’t start doing things like that, there is one thing I can guarantee and I don’t even have to be a mind reader. This region will fail. We will fail the world, we will fail our people, and, here’s my point, we will fail our children, and as a mayor I refuse to do that.”

He asked, “Are people really willing to go to the wall on things that are bigger than them?”

Tom Barrett, mayor of Milwaukee, said he wasn’t surprised and he wasn’t really bothered by the fact that people often put the interests of their own communities first when issues are important.

“They’re rooting for their home team first and foremost, and there’s nothing wrong with that,” Barrett said, He said it’s human nature to feel that, if it’s not hurting me, it’s OK to go ahead with something such as regional planning. He said regional leaders should find areas where they can work together, given that fact, and he pointed to efforts to build economically on the availability of water as a subject with major potential.

The other panel discussion included Ellen Alberding, president of the Chicago-based Joyce Foundation; Todd Battle, president of the Kenosha Area Business Alliance; Michelle Nettles, chief human resources officer for MillerCoors; and Carmel Ruffolo, Wisconsin operational chair for the Alliance for Regional Development and associate vice president for research and innovation at Marquette University.