MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds close races shaping up in both Republican and Democratic gubernatorial and U.S. Senate primaries in August, as well as in the November U.S. Senate race. The poll also finds that incumbent Gov. Tony Evers has an early advantage in the general election for governor.

In the first Marquette Law School Poll conducted since he entered the race in April, Tim Michels is the choice of 27% of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) and independents who say they will vote in the GOP primary for governor. Rebecca Kleefisch is supported by 26%, Kevin Nicholson is supported by 10%, Tim Ramthun is the choice of 3%, and Adam Fischer is supported by less than 0.5%. A substantial 32% of Republican primary voters remain undecided, down from 46% who were undecided in the Marquette Law School Poll conducted in April.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Mandela Barnes receives support of 25% and Alex Lasry is supported by 21% among Democrats (including independents who lean Democratic) and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary. Sarah Godlewski is the choice of 9%, and Tom Nelson holds 7%. The other seven candidates received 1% or less support.

Many Democratic primary voters remain undecided, with 36% saying they don’t know how they will vote, which is less than the 48% who were undecided in the April survey.

The survey was conducted June 14-20, 2022, interviewing 803 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The margin of error for Democratic primary voters is 6.2 percentage points and for Republican primary voters is 6.3 percentage points.

Table 1 shows the trends in support for the Republican primary for governor since February. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted at the top.)

Table 1: Republican primary preferences, U.S. Senate, February-June 2022

Primary choice	June	April	February
Michels	27	NA	NA
Kleefisch	26	32	30
Nicholson	10	10	8
Ramthun	3	4	5
Other	2	3	1
Fischer	*	NA	NA
Will not vote	0	3	1
Don’t know	32	46	54
Refused	0	1	2
* indicates less than .5% but more than 0

Table 2 shows the trends in support for the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate since February.

Table 2: Democratic primary preferences, U.S. Senate, February-June 2022

Primary choice	June	April	February
Barnes	25	19	23
Lasry	21	16	13
Godlewski	9	7	3
Nelson	7	5	5
Peckarsky	1	1	0
Olikara	*	0	0
Lewis	*	1	2
Murphy	*	*	2
Lee	0	0	0
Rumbaugh	0	0	0
Williams	0	*	*
Battino	NA	NA	1
Will not vote	0	3	3
Don’t know	36	48	48
Refused	0	1	1
* indicates less than .5% but more than 0

General election for governor

For the first time in the 2022 election cycle, this poll asked about possible November general election pairings for governor, matching incumbent Gov. Tony Evers against each of the top four Republican primary candidates. These results are shown in Table 3 (a) through Table 3 (d). Evers is supported by 47% to Kleefisch’s 43%, and Evers gets 48% to Michels’ 41%. Against Nicholson, Evers receives 48% to 40%. Evers holds a 51% to 34% margin over Ramthun. Here, and in subsequent tables, candidates are listed in alphabetical order.

Table 3: November general election for governor

(a) Evers vs. Kleefisch

Poll dates	Evers	Kleefisch	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	47	43	1	2	7	1

(b) Evers vs. Michels

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	48	41	2	1	8	1

(c) Evers vs. Nicholson

Poll dates	Evers	Nicholson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	48	40	1	1	8	1

(d) Evers vs. Ramthun

Poll dates	Evers	Ramthun	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	51	34	2	1	11	1

General election for U.S. Senate

The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. This is the first such matchup in the Marquette Law School Poll this cycle. These results are shown in Table 4 (a) through Table 4 (b). Johnson slightly trails three of the four Democrat candidates polled, including 46%-44% against Barnes, 45%-43% against Godlewski, and 44%-43% against Nelson. Previewing a possible matchup with Lasry, Johnson slightly leads in support, 45%-42%.

Table 4: November general election for U.S. Senate

(a) Johnson vs. Barnes

Poll dates	Johnson	Barnes	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	44	46	1	1	7	1

(b) Johnson vs. Godlewski

Poll dates	Johnson	Godlewski	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	43	45	2	1	9	1

(c) Johnson vs. Lasry

Poll dates	Johnson	Lasry	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	45	42	2	1	10	1

(d) Johnson vs. Nelson

Poll dates	Johnson	Nelson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	43	44	2	1	10	1

Favorability of the primary candidates

Table 5 shows the favorability ratings of the top four Republican candidates for governor and the percentage with no opinion (i.e., those saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about the candidate). Michels and Kleefisch have essentially equally positive net favorable ratings from GOP primary voters, with Nicholson about half as net favorable. Ramthun has a net negative favorability rating. Among these candidates, 46% or more of Republican voters say they don’t have an opinion of each, less than two months before the primary on Aug. 9.

Table 5: Favorability of Republican primary candidates, among Republican primary voters

Candidate	Net	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable	No opinion
Kleefisch	34	44	10	46
Michels	35	42	7	51
Nicholson	19	27	8	65
Ramthun	-3	7	10	84

Favorability of the Democratic primary candidates for governor among Democratic primary voters is shown in Table 6. Barnes has the highest net favorability, followed by Lasry, Godlewski, and Nelson. In each instance, over 50% of Democratic primary voters say they don’t have an opinion of the candidates

Table 6: Favorability to Democratic primary candidates, among Democratic primary voters

Candidate	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion
Barnes	38	41	3	56
Godlewski	17	24	7	69
Lasry	22	31	9	60
Nelson	4	12	8	79

Partisanship and vote choice in the November general elections

The tables below — 7(a) through 7 (d) — show the votes for governor overall and by party identification. Vote choice is strongly structured by partisanship in these matchups, with 90% or more of Democrats supporting Evers and between 70% and 83% of Republicans supporting the GOP candidate. Independents favor Evers in each of these pairings, although a substantial percentage of independents say they don’t know how they will vote. In these currently hypothetical matchups, Republicans are a bit more likely not to express a vote choice than are Democrats.

Table 7: November general election for governor

(a) Evers vs. Kleefisch

Group	Evers	Kleefisch	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	47	43	1	2	7
Republican	7	80	2	2	9
Independent	39	30	6	8	15
Democrat	90	7	0	0	3

(b) Evers vs. Michels

Group	Evers	Michels	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	48	41	2	1	8
Republican	7	83	1	1	8
Independent	36	18	9	5	28
Democrat	94	3	0	0	3

(c) Evers vs. Nicholson

Group	Evers	Nicholson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	48	40	1	1	8
Republican	9	80	1	0	9
Independent	30	23	6	11	28
Democrat	93	3	0	0	3

(d) Evers vs. Ramthun

Group	Evers	Ramthun	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	51	34	2	1	11
Republican	13	70	2	1	13
Independent	43	12	8	4	30
Democrat	93	2	0	1	4

Turning to the U.S. Senate race, the next set of tables — 8 (a) through 8 (d) — shows the votes for U.S. Senate, overall and by party identification. In these pairings, Republicans give Johnson 83% to 87% support, while Democrats back their party’s candidates at 86% to 91% rates. Independents vary in support, preferring Barnes by 1 percentage point and Johnson by from 2 to 8 percentage points in the other pairings. As in the race for governor, many more independents are undecided in their vote for U.S. Senate than are Republicans or Democrats.

Table 8: November general election for U.S. Senate

(a) Johnson vs. Barnes

Group	Johnson	Barnes	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	44	46	1	1	7
Republican	86	6	0	0	7
Independent	28	29	11	5	24
Democrat	5	91	0	0	4

(b) Johnson vs. Godlewski

Group	Johnson	Godlewski	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	43	45	2	1	9
Republican	83	7	0	0	8
Independent	30	23	14	4	26
Democrat	5	89	0	0	5

(c) Johnson vs. Lasry

Group	Johnson	Lasry	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	45	42	2	1	10
Republican	87	4	1	0	8
Independent	30	22	12	5	28
Democrat	6	86	1	0	6

(d) Johnson vs. Nelson

Group	Johnson	Nelson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	43	44	2	1	10
Republican	85	6	1	0	8
Independent	24	22	11	7	34
Democrat	5	89	1	0	5

Enthusiasm to vote

The poll finds that in June there is a significant difference by party in enthusiasm to vote, with 67% of Republicans saying they are very enthusiastic and 58% of Democrats saying the same. Independents are considerably less enthusiastic, with 35% very enthusiastic. In past surveys, enthusiasm was closely linked to being a “likely voter,” as shown also in Table 9.

Table 9: Likely voters (i.e., those saying they are certain to vote), by enthusiasm, 2014-2020

Enthusiastic	Likely Voter	Not Likely
Very	93	7
Somewhat	64	36
Not too	43	55
Not at all	39	60

Enthusiasm has varied by party, with modest Republican advantages in October 2021 and February 2022, but no difference by party in April 2022. Table 10 shows the trend in enthusiasm over the last four Marquette Law School Poll surveys of Wisconsin.

Table 10: Enthusiasm to vote in November, by party identification, October 2021-June 2022

(a) June 2022

Party ID	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Republican	67	20	7	6
Independent	35	35	8	20
Democrat	58	26	9	5

(b) April 2022

Party ID	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Republican	57	24	9	9
Independent	35	32	15	14
Democrat	57	27	6	8

(c) February 2022

Party ID	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Republican	58	22	11	7
Independent	43	30	10	14
Democrat	56	25	12	5

(d) October 2021

Party ID	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Republican	63	21	9	6
Independent	43	22	10	23
Democrat	59	25	9	5

This enthusiasm gap is large enough to shift the vote margins significantly in hypothetical November general elections. Table 11 shows the effect of enthusiasm on the margins in the race for governor. By definition, the results for all registered voters reflect a very high turnout, those for both “very” and “somewhat” enthusiastic voters reflect an intermediate turnout, and the results for only those who are “very enthusiastic” reflect a lower turnout.

Table 11: Vote for governor, by potential turnout in November

(a) Evers vs. Kleefisch

Group	Evers	Kleefisch	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	47	43	1	2	7
Intermediate Turnout	47	44	1	1	5
Low Turnout	45	47	1	1	5

(b) Evers vs. Michels

Group	Evers	Michels	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	48	41	2	1	8
Intermediate Turnout	48	43	1	1	6
Low Turnout	46	47	1	1	5

(c) Evers vs. Nicholson

Group	Evers	Nicholson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	48	40	1	1	8
Intermediate Turnout	47	43	1	0	7
Low Turnout	45	46	0	1	6

(d) Evers vs. Ramthun

Group	Evers	Ramthun	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	51	34	2	1	11
Intermediate Turnout	51	36	1	1	10
Low Turnout	48	40	1	1	9

Table 12 shows the effect of potential turnout on the margins in the race for U.S. Senate.

Table 12: Vote for U.S. Senate, by potential turnout in November

(a) Johnson vs. Barnes

Group	Johnson	Barnes	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	44	46	1	1	7
Intermediate Turnout	46	47	1	0	6
Low Turnout	48	45	1	0	4

(b) Johnson vs. Godlewski

Group	Johnson	Godlewski	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	43	45	2	1	9
Intermediate Turnout	44	46	1	0	7
Low Turnout	47	44	1	1	6

(c) Johnson vs. Lasry

Group	Johnson	Lasry	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	45	42	2	1	10
Intermediate Turnout	45	44	1	0	8
Low Turnout	48	43	1	0	7

(d) Johnson vs. Nelson

Group	Johnson	Nelson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	43	44	2	1	10
Intermediate Turnout	44	45	1	1	8
Low Turnout	47	44	1	1	6

Enthusiasm is strongly related to age, making for an older electorate in November if the current enthusiasm gap by age remains unchanged. Table 13 shows enthusiasm to vote by age in the June survey.

Table 13: Enthusiasm to vote, by age, June 2022

Age	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
18-29	27	35	22	17
30-39	43	35	8	14
40-49	58	29	6	7
50-59	70	16	8	4
60-69	79	14	4	1
70+	70	22	4	3

Direction of the state, job approval, and favorability

The percentage saying Wisconsin is headed in the right direction barely changed from April to June. In the new poll, 37% say the state is heading in the right direction and 56% say it is off on the wrong track. In April, 36% said the state was going in the right direction and 56% said it was on the wrong track. The trend in right direction or wrong track is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Wisconsin headed in right direction or wrong track, 2019-22

Poll dates	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know	Refused
1/16-20/19	57	33	10	0
4/3-7/19	52	40	8	0
8/25-29/19	55	37	8	0
10/13-17/19	53	39	7	1
1/8-12/20	46	47	6	1
2/19-23/20	52	39	8	0
3/24-29/20	61	30	9	1
8/3-8/21	39	52	9	0
10/26-31/21	41	51	7	1
2/22-27/22	39	53	8	1
4/19-24/22	36	56	7	0
6/14-20/22	37	56	6	0

Approval of Evers’ handling of his job as governor stands at 48% in June, with disapproval at 45%, little changed from the result of 49% approval to 43% disapproval in April. The full trend for Evers’ approval is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Evers job approval, 2019-22

Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused	Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
1/16-20/19	39	22	38	1	6/14-18/20	54	38	6	1
4/3-7/19	47	37	15	0	8/4-9/20	57	37	6	0
8/25-29/19	54	34	10	1	8/30-9/3/20	51	43	5	2
10/13-17/19	52	34	13	1	9/30-10/4/20	52	42	5	1
11/13-17/19	47	42	10	1	10/21-25/20	50	43	7	0
12/3-8/19	50	38	11	1	8/3-8/21	50	43	7	0
1/8-12/20	51	40	9	0	10/26-31/21	45	46	8	1
2/19-23/20	51	38	10	1	2/22-27/22	50	41	8	1
3/24-29/20	65	29	6	1	4/19-24/22	49	43	7	1
5/3-7/20	59	33	7	1	6/14-20/22	48	45	6	1

In this June poll, President Joe Biden’s approval falls to 40%, with 57% disapproval, his lowest approval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll since taking office. In April 2022, 43% approved and 53% disapproved of Biden’s job performance. Biden’s approval among Wisconsin voters in Marquette Law School Poll surveys during his presidency is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Biden job approval, 2021-22

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
8/3-8/21	49	46	4	0
10/26-31/21	43	53	4	1
2/22-27/22	43	52	3	2
4/19-24/22	43	53	3	1
6/14-20/22	40	57	3	0

Sen. Johnson’s favorability rating changed little in June, with 37% viewing him favorably, 46% viewing him unfavorably, and 16% saying they haven’t heard enough about him or don’t know how they felt. In April, 36% were favorable, 46% were unfavorable, and 18% lacked an opinion of Johnson. The trend in Johnson’s favorability since 2013 is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Johnson favorability, 2013-22

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
3/11-13/13	30	25	40	4	0
5/6-9/13	33	25	37	4	0
10/21-24/13	29	33	35	3	0
1/20-23/14	31	25	38	5	0
3/20-23/14	29	27	40	4	0
7/17-20/14	29	29	40	2	0
8/21-24/14	39	25	31	4	1
10/23-26/14	33	30	31	5	1
4/7-10/15	32	29	34	5	0
8/13-16/15	30	31	35	3	0
9/24-28/15	27	36	33	4	0
11/12-15/15	27	38	33	2	0
1/21-24/16	26	33	37	4	1
2/18-21/16	29	33	35	3	0
3/24-28/16	32	31	34	2	0
6/9-12/16	33	31	33	2	0
7/7-10/16	34	35	30	2	0
8/4-7/16	34	32	31	2	0
8/25-28/16	33	34	30	2	1
9/15-18/16	34	36	28	2	0
10/6-9/16	41	33	23	2	0
Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/26-31/16	41	38	17	4	0
3/13-16/17	39	34	23	3	1
6/22-25/17	39	32	26	3	0
2/25-3/1/18	40	30	25	4	0
6/13-17/18	39	34	21	5	0
7/11-15/18	40	36	16	7	1
8/15-19/18	40	30	25	4	1
9/12-16/18	38	32	24	6	0
10/3-7/18	41	32	21	5	1
10/24-28/18	39	30	24	6	1
1/16-20/19	44	28	23	5	0
4/3-7/19	40	32	24	5	0
8/25-29/19	40	29	25	6	0
10/13-17/19	40	29	24	6	0
11/13-17/19	39	29	24	7	0
12/3-8/19	36	34	26	4	1
1/8-12/20	39	29	28	3	0
2/19-23/20	37	34	24	5	1
3/24-29/20	35	32	29	4	0
5/3-7/20	38	34	23	5	1
6/14-18/20	35	32	29	3	0
8/4-9/20	33	35	27	4	0
8/30-9/3/20	32	36	28	5	0
9/30-10/4/20	35	31	27	7	0
10/21-25/20	38	36	23	3	1
8/3-8/21	35	42	20	3	0
10/26-31/21	36	42	18	4	0
2/22-27/22	33	45	17	4	1
4/19-24/22	36	46	14	4	0
6/14-20/22	37	46	14	2	0

Concern about issues

Inflation remained the issue voters say they are most concerned about, with 75% saying they are very concerned. In April, 69% were very concerned about inflation.

Fifty-eight percent say they are very concerned about abortion policy, while 56% are very concerned about gun violence. Concern about healthcare is rated somewhat lower, with 47% very concerned, while concern about coronavirus has fallen to its low point of the year, with 18% very concerned. The full set of responses is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Issue concerns, June 2022

Issue	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Inflation	75	20	4	1
Abortion policy	58	24	8	9
Gun violence	56	26	8	9
Healthcare	47	36	12	5
Coronavirus	18	27	23	31

There has been little change among preferences in abortion policy in recent years, with 27% in this survey saying abortion should be legal in all cases and 31% saying it should be legal in most cases. Meanwhile, 11% say it should be illegal in all cases and 24% say it should be illegal in most cases. That represents a small increase in the percent favoring the legality of abortion in all cases and a similar decline in the percent say abortion should be legal in most cases, while the other categories changed little. The full trend on this question is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Abortion policy preference, 2012-2022

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know	Refused
9/13-16/12	26	34	23	13	3	1
9/27-30/12	25	35	23	12	3	1
10/11-14/12	25	34	25	12	3	1
10/25-28/12	28	32	23	12	4	1
10/21-24/13	26	36	25	10	2	1
10/23-26/14	24	34	24	15	3	1
7/11-15/18	27	36	18	11	6	2
9/12-16/18	26	36	21	9	6	2
10/24-28/18	26	29	24	14	4	2
2/19-23/20	18	37	22	15	6	3
10/26-31/21	23	38	23	11	4	1
6/14-20/22	27	31	24	11	5	2

Gun policy

Eighty-one percent support “red-flag laws,” which allow police to take guns away from people found by a judge to be a danger to themselves or others, while 13% oppose such laws. Support is unchanged since August 2019, when this question was last asked and 12% were opposed.

Mandatory background checks on people making gun purchases at gun shows or through private sales are supported by 79%, with 16% opposed. In August 2019, 80% supported such background checks and 16% were opposed.

A smaller majority, 56%, support raising the minimum age for gun purchases to 21, while 38% would keep the minimum age at 18. This is the first time this question has been asked in the Marquette Law School Poll.

Transgender issues

A little less than half of the respondents, 44%, say they know someone who identifies as transgender, while 55% do not. This percentage varies strongly by age, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Know someone who is transgender, by age

Age	Yes, know someone	No, do not know anyone	Don’t know
18-29	64	36	0
30-44	56	44	0
45-59	41	57	1
60+	31	67	3

Forty-six percent say they favor laws that ban discrimination based on whether a person is transgender, while 39% oppose such laws and 13% say they don’t know.

Participation on sports teams that match an athlete’s current gender identity is supported by 22% of respondents, while 62% say athletes should only be allowed to compete on teams that match their birth gender and 14% don’t know.

Water safety issues

Asked about their level of concern over the safety of the water supply in their community,  20% say they are very concerned, 23% somewhat concerned, 27% not too concerned, and 30% not at all concerned. Concern was higher among residents of the City of Milwaukee, where 33% are very concerned, compared to 18% in all other regions of the state.

Concern about water contamination from the long-lasting chemical PFAS was somewhat higher than concern over the water supply in general. Thirty-one percent are very concerned about PFAS contamination, and 30% are somewhat concerned, while 16% are not too concerned and 18% are not at all concerned over PFAS.

A majority of respondents, 66%, see water quality issues as a statewide concern, while 24% see it as an issue in only isolated parts of the state.

Confidence in the accuracy the 2020 presidential election result

There has been little change in confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 presidential election result in recent months, with 67% saying they are very or somewhat confident that votes were accurately cast and counted in Wisconsin and 32% not too confident or not at all confident. The full trend since August 2021 is shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 presidential election in Wisconsin, August 2021-June 2022

Poll dates	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know
8/3-8/21	48	19	15	16	1
10/26-31/21	47	18	12	19	3
2/22-27/22	48	19	11	19	2
4/19-24/22	48	16	12	23	1
6/14-20/22	51	16	11	21	0

A majority of Republicans doubt the results, while a majority of independents and Democrats have confidence in the election results. Confidence by party is shown in Table 22. There is some difference in confidence between Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican party.

Table 22: Confidence in the 2020 election by party identification

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know
Republican	13	21	21	44	0
Lean Republican	19	26	25	28	1
Independent	51	19	3	26	1
Lean Democrat	83	13	1	4	0
Democrat	90	5	3	1	0

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 803 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from June 14-20, 2022. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error for 369 Democratic primary voters is 6.2 percentage points and for 372 Republican primary voters is 6.3 percentage points.

Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 401 and have a margin of error of +/-6.2 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 402 and have a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples include on Form A whether Wisconsin is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, concern for inflation, abortion policy, the coronavirus pandemic, gun violence, and healthcare. Form B items included background checks for gun purchases, minimum age to purchase a gun, and red flag laws. Form B also included knowing someone who is transgender, favor or oppose a ban on discrimination against transgender people, and whether transgender athletes should be allowed to compete on teams that match their current gender identity.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 10% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 41% independent.

Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45% Republican and 44% Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean has been 29% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting, and about half of Republicans say they are more likely to support a candidate Trump has endorsed, though 40% say it makes no difference

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 40% of adults nationwide say abortion is one of the most important issues to them, while 39% say it is somewhat important, and 21% say it is not very or not at all important.

Table 1 shows the full set of responses on the importance of abortion as an issue.

Table 1: Importance of abortion issue, May 2022

Poll dates	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
5/9-19/22	40	39	15	6

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s Supreme Court survey was conducted May 9-19, 2022, a week after a draft opinion that would overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion-rights precedent was leaked to the Politico news organization. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points.

A previous Marquette Law School Poll release yesterday, May 25, described other results of the new national survey; that release primarily focused on public opinion of the Supreme Court and of cases concerning abortion and other issues. This release provides further results of the same survey on national topics.

Table 2 shows the importance of abortion as an issue, by party identification. Democrats rank the issue as more important than do independents or Republicans. A quarter of Republicans and independents say abortion is not very or not at all important to them, while 14% of Democrats say this.

Table 2: Importance of abortion issue, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Republican	31	44	17	8
Independent	38	36	15	10
Democrat	48	37	12	2

Asked what public policy on abortion should be, 29% say abortion should be legal in all cases, 38% say legal in most cases, 24% say it should be illegal in most cases, and 8% say illegal in all cases.

Those who say abortion should be illegal in all cases are the most likely to say it is one of the most important issues to them, followed by those who say it should be legal in all cases. The middle categories, involving those who say abortion should be mostly legal or mostly illegal, have about half as many (or fewer) people who say the abortion issue is one of their most important issues as those in the other categories just described. The relationship between policy preference and opinion on importance of the issue is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Opinion on importance of abortion issue, by policy preference on abortion, May 2022

Policy preference on abortion	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Legal in all cases	60	30	5	4
Legal in most cases	24	46	25	5
Illegal in most cases	32	47	14	7
Illegal in all cases	67	20	5	7

While abortion policy is a highly polarizing issue among elected members of Congress and state legislatures, opinion is not as strongly divided by party among the public. Table 4 shows that, while substantial majorities of Democrats and independents say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a substantial minority of Republicans also say it should be legal always or mostly. A majority of Republicans say it should always or mostly be illegal.

Table 4: Policy preference on abortion, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
Republican	10	31	44	14
Independent	35	40	16	7
Democrat	44	43	10	3

Policy preferences are sensitive to the specific limitations proposed on abortion. With the potential for Roe to be overturned, several state legislatures have enacted or debated laws that would ban abortions (in most cases, with some exceptions) at various stages of pregnancy. This survey asked a series of questions about support for or opposition to bans based on these state proposals. Each question included an exception for “medical emergencies.”

The question asked:

Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?

The results for the five alternative policies are shown in Table 5. There is majority opposition to bans that would apply at any time or after 6 weeks, and an even divide on bans after 15 weeks. A majority favor bans after six months, and a majority oppose there being no restrictions on when a woman can obtain an abortion.

Table 5: Favor or oppose abortion bans, by when ban would take effect, May 2022

Ban when	Favor	Oppose
Ban at any time during pregnancy	27	72
Ban after 6 weeks	34	65
Ban after 15 weeks	50	49
Ban after 6 months	65	35
No restrictions at any point	39	60

Some states have considered legislation that would make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion by traveling to a different state where abortion is legal. This policy is favored by 22% of respondents nationwide and is opposed by 78%.

Opinion on making out-of-state travel for abortions illegal is shown by party identification in Table 6.

Table 6: Should states be able to make out-of-state travel for abortion illegal, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Yes	No
Republican	32	68
Independent	19	81
Democrat	14	86

Enthusiasm to vote

Looking ahead to the November elections, 37% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, 31% are somewhat enthusiastic, 22% are not too enthusiastic, and 10% are not at all enthusiastic to vote this fall.

Enthusiasm to vote varies by party, with Republicans most likely to say they are very enthusiastic, trailed by Democrats. Independents are much less enthusiastic. Enthusiasm is shown in Table 7 (a) for all adults and in Table 7 (b) for registered voters only.

Table 7: Enthusiasm to vote, by party identification, May 2022

(a) All adults

Party ID	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Republican	50	28	19	3
Independent	17	23	28	31
Democrat	34	37	22	7

(b) Registered voters only

Party ID	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Republican	53	29	16	2
Independent	25	25	25	25
Democrat	39	37	21	2

Enthusiasm measured by opinion on the importance of the abortion issue is shown in Table 8 for all adults and for registered voters. There are too few respondents who say the abortion issue is not important at all to reliably estimate results for that group, so they have been combined with those who say abortion is not very important in this table.

Table 8: Enthusiasm to vote, by opinion on importance of abortion issue, May 2022

(a) All adults

Importance of abortion issue	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
One of the most important issues	44	27	20	8
Somewhat important	30	36	23	11
Not very or not at all important	35	28	24	13

(b) Registered voters only

Importance of abortion issue	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
One of the most important issues	51	27	17	5
Somewhat important	35	37	22	6
Not very or not at all important	43	31	19	7

Enthusiasm to vote is shown by abortion policy preference in Table 9. Enthusiasm to vote is higher among those opposed to abortion than among those who favor legal abortions.

Table 9: Enthusiasm to vote, by abortion policy preference, May 2022

(a) All adults

Abortion policy preference	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Legal in all cases	33	30	21	15
Legal in most cases	33	32	27	9
Illegal in most cases	44	32	16	8
Illegal in all cases	50	25	19	6

(b) Registered voters only

Abortion policy preference	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Legal in all cases	40	30	22	8
Legal in most cases	39	33	23	5
Illegal in most cases	48	33	13	5
Illegal in all cases	58	26	15	1

Confidence in 2020 election and enthusiasm to vote

The matter of confidence and doubt in the accuracy of the 2020 election results continues to divide Americans. Among all adults, 57% are very or somewhat confident that the results of the 2020 election were accurate, while 43% are not too or not at all confident of this. The trend in election confidence is shown in Table 10, showing that confidence dropped by 6 percentage points from March to May.

Table 10: Confidence and doubt in 2020 election accuracy, trend, Sept. 2021-May 2022

Poll dates	Confident	Not confident
9/7-16/21	60	40
11/1-10/21	65	35
1/10-21/22	66	34
3/14-24/22	63	37
5/9-19/22	57	43

There are very large differences by partisanship, as shown in Table 11, with almost three-quarters of Republicans doubting the election result, nearly 90% of Democrats confident in the election accuracy, and independents evenly divided.

Table 11: Confidence in 2020 election accuracy, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Confident	Not confident
Republican	27	73
Independent	47	52
Democrat	89	11

Doubt about the accuracy of the 2020 election results is associated with higher enthusiasm to vote among Republicans, but with lower enthusiasm to vote among Democrats and independents (who are combined here to provide sufficient observations for the comparison). Table 12 (a) shows the relationship between doubt in the election and enthusiasm among Republicans, and Table 12 (b) shows the relationship among Democrats and independents.

Table 12: Enthusiasm to vote, by confidence or doubt in 2020 election, May 2022

(a) Republicans

Confidence or doubt	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Confident	36	35	23	5
Not confident	55	25	17	2

(b) Democrats and independents

Confidence or doubt	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Confident	34	35	21	10
Not confident	12	27	32	29

Vote choice and abortion policy

Respondents were asked:

Thinking about this year’s (2022) elections, if one candidate favors keeping abortion legal and widely available, and the other candidate favors strictly limiting abortion except to protect the mother’s life, which candidate would you support?

Among all respondents, 54% say they would support the candidate who favors keeping abortion legal, while 31% would support the candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion, The remaining 14% say the abortion issue would not matter to them.

The choice of candidates connected to positions on abortion is shown by party identification in Table 13. A majority of Republicans favor the candidate who would strictly limit abortions, while a similar majoriity of independents would favor the candidate who favors keeping abortion legal, as is also the case with a substantially larger majority of Democrats. There is broader salience of the issue among Democrats: Fewer Democrats say the abortion position of candidates would not matter to them than is the case for Republicans and independents.

Table 13: Candidate choice by party identification, May 2022

(a) All adults

Party ID	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
Republican	25	58	17
Independent	56	21	22
Democrat	81	12	7

(b) Registered voters only

Party ID	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
Republican	26	57	17
Independent	53	26	22
Democrat	83	9	7

Biden job approval

In the new Marquette Law School Poll nationwide survey, President Joe Biden’s job approval stands at 42% with disapproval at 57%. In March, approval was 44% and disapproval was 55%. The trend in Biden approval since July 2021, when the question was first asked, is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Biden job approval trend, July 2021-May 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57

Favorability ratings

Favorability ratings of Biden, former President Donald Trump, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a likely candidate for president in 2024, are shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Favorability trends, 2021-2022

(a) Joe Biden

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	45	49	6
1/10-21/22	45	51	4
3/14-24/22	44	53	3
5/9-19/22	40	55	4

(b) Donald Trump

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	32	65	3
1/10-21/22	32	67	1
3/14-24/22	36	61	3
5/9-19/22	35	61	3

(c) Mike Pence

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	29	51	20
1/10-21/22	28	55	17
3/14-24/22	31	53	16
5/9-19/22	25	54	21

(d) Ron DeSantis

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	22	34	44
3/14-24/22	25	36	39
5/9-19/22	24	37	38

Favorability in May for each political figure, by party identification, is shown in Table 16, showing large differences by party. Independents are more likely to say they haven’t heard enough about Pence or DeSantis than are partisans of either party.

Table 16: Favorability by party identification, May 2022

(a) Joe Biden

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	7	91	2
Independent	33	58	7
Democrat	72	22	5

(b) Donald Trump

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	75	22	2
Independent	21	71	7
Democrat	6	91	3

(c) Mike Pence

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	49	33	18
Independent	11	48	41
Democrat	9	75	15

(d) Ron DeSantis

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	56	14	30
Independent	11	29	59
Democrat	2	61	37

Trump endorsements

Trump has endorsed candidates in state primaries across the country. Among Republicans, 49% say they are more likely to support a candidate whom Trump has endorsed, although almost as many, 40%, say his endorsement would make no difference in their vote. Another 11% say they would be less likely to vote for a Trump-backed candidate.

Almost half of independents, 46%, say a Trump endorsement would make no difference to them, and 41% say it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, with just 12% saying they would be more likely. Almost all Democrats, 87%, say they are less likely to support a candidate Trump endorses. These results are shown in Table 17.

Table 17: More or less likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	More likely	Less likely	No difference
Republican	49	11	40
Independent	12	41	46
Democrat	5	87	8

Over 70% of each partisan category say they don’t know if Trump has endorsed a candidate in their state. Republicans and Democrats are almost equally likely to say Trump has endorsed a candidate, and independents are less likely to know of an endorsement.

Table 18: Think Trump has endorsed a state candidate, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Yes, has endorsed	No, has not endorsed	Don’t know if he has endorsed
Republican	22	6	71
Independent	13	7	80
Democrat	21	9	70

Based on data reported by Ballotpedia.org as of May 19, Trump has not endorsed a candidate in 13 states plus the District of Columbia, endorsed one candidate in 11 states, endorsed two candidates in 13 states, and endorsed three or more candidates in 13 states. Endorsements for governor, senator, U.S. House of Representative, and other state offices are counted in this total.

Combining the endorsement data with the survey responses shows that where Trump has given more endorsements, respondents are more likely to be aware he has endorsed candidates in the state, and in states he has not endorsed, they are least likely to think he has endorsed someone. Table 19 shows the percent of respondents who think Trump has made an endorsement, by the number of endorsements reported by Ballotpedia.org.

Table 19: Think Trump has endorsed a state candidate, by number of endorsements in the state (including D.C.), May 2022

Number of endorsements	Yes, has endorsed	No, has not endorsed	Don’t know if he has endorsed
None	4	11	84
One	9	10	81
Two	16	10	74
Three or more	34	3	62

Among Republicans, about half say they are more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump, but this percentage does not vary significantly by the number of candidates that Trump has endorsed in the state, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: More or less likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate, by number of endorsements in the state, among Republicans only, May 2022

Number of endorsements	More likely	Less likely	No difference
None	55	6	38
One	53	10	37
Two	47	8	45
Three or more	46	14	40

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted May 9-19, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey that were focused on the Supreme Court were released one day ago (i.e., on May 24, 2022). That release is also available at the above link.