MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds approval of the U.S. Supreme Court has taken a sharp turn down, falling to 44%, with 55% disapproving of how the Court is handling its job. In March, 54% approved and 45% disapproved. Approval of the Court stood at 66% in September 2020, when 33% disapproved. As recently as July 2021, the Court had a 60% approval rating. Table 1 shows the trend in approval since September 2020.

Table 1: Court approval trend, Sept. 2020-May 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
9/8-15/20	66	33
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/7-16/21	49	50
11/1-10/21	54	46
1/10-21/22	52	46
3/14-24/22	54	45
5/9-19/22	44	55

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s Supreme Court survey was conducted May 9-19, 2022, a week after a draft opinion that would overturn the Roe v. Wade abortion rights precedent was leaked to the Politico news organization. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points.

Approval dropped sharply in September 2021 after the Court earlier that month rejected a request to block enforcement of a Texas law, known as S.B. 8, which bans most abortions after cardiac activity can be detected, at around six weeks of pregnancy. Since September, approval had recovered about five percentage points, prior to this May decline.

The sharp decline in approval in May reflects a drop of 23 percentage points among Democrats and a 6-point fall among independents, while approval rose by 4 percentage points among Republicans. Compared to the results in March, approval of the Court is more sharply polarized along party lines than it was two months ago. There was a 42-percentage point gap in approval between Republicans and Democrats in May, compared to a gap of 15 points in March. Table 2 shows approval by party identification in the March and May surveys.

Table 2: Court approval by party identification, March and May 2022

(a) March 2022

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	64	35
Independent	44	53
Democrat	49	51

(b) May 2022

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	68	32
Independent	38	59
Democrat	26	73

Self-described ideology is strongly correlated with approval of the Court, and the correlation increased in polarization from March to May, as shown in Table 3. Approval of the Court’s handling of its job increased among those who describe themselves as very conservative or conservative, while it was reduced among those who consider themselves moderate, liberal, or very liberal. The difference in approval rate between the most conservative and most liberal respondents is now 66 percentage points, up from 36 percentage points in March.

Table 3: Court approval, by ideology, March and May 2022

(a) March 2022

Ideology	Approve	Disapprove
Very conservative	65	35
Somewhat conservative	68	31
Moderate	58	40
Somewhat liberal	40	60
Very liberal	29	71

(b) May 2022

Ideology	Approve	Disapprove
Very conservative	75	25
Somewhat conservative	72	27
Moderate	36	63
Somewhat liberal	28	72
Very liberal	9	88

Public opinion on abortion issues

Opinion on overturning Roe v. Wade has not changed in the wake of the leaked draft opinion. Among those with an opinion on the issue, 31% favor overturning Roe, while 69% oppose striking it down, hardly changed since March when 32% were in favor and 68% were opposed. Table 4 shows the trend on this question since September 2019.

Table 4: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, trend among those with an opinion, 2019-2022

Poll dates	Favor overturning	Oppose overturning
9/3-13/19	32	68
9/8-15/20	37	63
9/7-16/21	28	72
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	28	72
3/14-24/22	32	68
5/9-19/22	31	69

Opinion is evenly divided on a ban on most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy under a Mississippi law that is before the Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, with 51% in favor of upholding the law and 49% opposed, among those with an opinion. Since September 2021, views on this limitation on abortion have remained stable, as shown in Table 5, since the question was first asked.

Table 5: Favor or oppose upholding 15-week ban on abortion, trend among those with an opinion, Sept. 2021-May 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	54	46
11/1-10/21	53	47
1/10-21/22	49	51
5/9-19/22	51	49

A large majority, 70%, oppose the Texas S.B. 8 law, which bans abortions after approximately six weeks of pregnancy and allows private citizens to sue those who assist someone seeking an abortion, while 30% favor the law. The Supreme Court has considered requests to block or strike down this law since August 2021 but has returned the case for consideration by lower courts, allowing it to remain in effect. There has been little change since November in views of this law, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Favor or oppose Texas S.B. 8 six-week ban on abortion, trend among those with an opinion, Sept. 2021-May 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	39	61
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	28	72
5/9-19/22	30	70

Substantial partisan divides on each of the three abortion issues have changed little, the results of the new poll show. Table 7 shows views on overturning Roe, by party, in March and May 2022. While independents in May are 16 percentage points more opposed to overturning Roe than they were in March, the views of Republicans shifted by only 1 percentage point and Democrats did not shift at all.

Table 7: Favor overturning Roe, by party identification, March and May 2022

(a) March 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	64	36
Independent	35	65
Democrat	6	94

(b) May 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	65	35
Independent	19	81
Democrat	6	94

Opinions on the Mississippi 15-week ban have changed only slightly among any of the three partisan groups since January, with Republicans becoming 3 percentage points more favorable to the law and Democrats 3 percentage points more opposed. Independents have become 1 percentage point more opposed. Table 8 shows opinion by party for January and May 2022.

Table 8: Favor upholding 15-week ban in Dobbs, by party identification, Jan. and May 2022

(a) January 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	81	19
Independent	46	54
Democrat	25	75

(b) May 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	84	16
Independent	45	55
Democrat	22	78

Republican support of Texas S.B. 8 increased five percentage points from January, when the question was previously asked, to May. Meanwhile, opposition among independents increased 6 points and Democrats became 1 point less opposed. Table 9 shows opinion on this law by party identification.

Table 9: Favor 6-week ban in Texas SB-8, by party identification, Jan. and May 2022

(a) January 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	55	45
Independent	28	72
Democrat	9	91

(b) May 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	60	40
Independent	22	78
Democrat	10	90

Approval of the Court, by opinion on abortion issues

While, on balance, opinion on abortion laws has not changed substantially, those preferences have increased divisions in approval of the Court. Table 10 shows the relationship between opinion on overturning Roe v. Wade and approval of the Court’s performance in March and in May. Approval of the Court increased by 19 percentage points among those in favor of overturning Roe, while such approval decreased by 20 percentage points among those opposed to overturning Roe. Approval also declined by 13 percentage points among those who said they didn’t have an opinion about overturning Roe.

Table 10: Court performance approval, by view on overturning Roe, March and May 2022

(a) March 2022

Overturn Roe	Approve	Disapprove
No opinion	60	38
Favor	65	34
Oppose	45	54

(b) May 2022

Overturn Roe	Approve	Disapprove
No opinion	47	51
Favor	84	16
Oppose	25	74

Approval of the Court’s performance also became more sharply divided by opinion on upholding the 15-week ban in Dobbs, as shown in Table 11. This question was previously asked in January 2022 but not in March. Approval of the Court declined by 18 percentage points among those who oppose the 15-week ban in Dobbs and by 9 percentage points among those without an opinion, but it increased 1 percentage point among those who favor the Mississippi law.

Table 11: Court performance approval, by view on upholding 15-week ban in Dobbs, Jan. and May 2022

(a) January 2022

Uphold Dobbs	Approve	Disapprove
No opinion	55	44
Favor	65	33
Oppose	38	61

(b) May 2022

Uphold Dobbs	Approve	Disapprove
No opinion	46	52
Favor	66	34
Oppose	20	80

Approval of the Court’s performance also rose by 5 percentage points among those who favor the Texas S.B. 8 law and fell by 17 points among those opposed to S.B. 8. Approval also fell by 4 points among those with no opinion on S.B. 8.

Table 12: Court performance approval, by view on 6-week ban in Texas SB-8, Jan. and May 2022

(a) January 2022

View of SB-8	Approve	Disapprove
No opinion	61	38
Favor	63	37
Oppose	46	53

(b) May 2022

View of SB-8	Approve	Disapprove
No opinion	57	41
Favor	68	31
Oppose	29	70

Awareness of leaked decision

Following the publication of the leaked draft opinion in Dobbs, 40% said they had read or heard a lot about the draft opinion, 36% said they had read a little, and 24% said they had read nothing at all.

Democrats and Republicans were almost equally likely to say they had read or heard nothing at all about the draft opinion, but Democrats were more likely to say they had read a lot. Independents were twice as likely as partisans to say they have read nothing at all. The amount read or heard about the leaked draft is shown by party in Table 13.

Table 13: How much have you read or heard about the leaked draft opinion, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	40	39	20
Independent	18	41	40
Democrat	49	32	19

Those who favor overturning Roe are slightly more likely to have read or heard about the leaked draft than those who oppose overturning it, while those without an opinion are much less likely to have heard of the draft opinion, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: How much have you read or heard about the leaked draft opinion, by favor or oppose overturning Roe, May 2022

Favor overturning Roe	Read or heard: A lot	A little	Nothing at all
No opinion	13	43	44
Favor	50	36	14
Oppose	46	34	20

Perceptions of Court ideology

In the wake of the leaked draft opinion, the Court is perceived in ideological terms as a bit more conservative than in previous surveys. Table 15 shows the trend in perceived ideology of the Court since September 2019. Over this time, the percentage saying the Court is “moderate” has fallen from 50% in September 2019 to 34% in May 2022, while the percentage saying the Court is “very conservative” has increased from 5% to 23%, with an 8-percentage point increase from March to May 2022.

Table 15: Perceived ideology of the Supreme Court, Sept. 2019-May 2022

Poll dates	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2

Opinion of same-sex marriage and LGBTQ non-discrimination decisions

A large majority, 69%, of respondents favor the 2015 Supreme Court decision that ruled the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage, while 31% oppose that ruling, among those with an opinion.

An even larger majority, 84%, favor the 2020 Supreme Court ruling that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination, while 16% oppose that decision, among those with an opinion. Table 16 shows these opinions by party identification.

Table 16: Favor same-sex marriage or LGBTQ anti-discrimination rulings, by party identification, May 2022

(a) Same-sex marriage decision

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	49	51
Independent	76	24
Democrat	85	15

(b) LGBTQ anti-discrimination decision

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	72	28
Independent	83	17
Democrat	94	6

Second Amendment

In another case expected to be decided this term, New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, the Court is considering whether the Second Amendment protects the right to possess a gun outside the home. Among those with an opinion, a substantial majority, 66%, favor such a ruling, while 34% oppose this expansion of gun rights. The trend in opinion of this issue has been quite stable and is shown in Table 17. (On May 14, a shooting at a Buffalo NY supermarket killed 10 people, all of whom were Black. In our survey we found no difference in opinion on this question between those interviewed before or after the shooting.)

Table 17: Favor Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home, among those with an opinion, Sept. 2021-May 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	63	37
11/1-10/21	65	35
1/10-21/22	67	33
3/14-24/22	63	37
5/9-19/22	66	34

Among those with an opinion, substantial majorities of both Republicans and independents favor a right to possess a gun outside the home, while a majority of Democrats oppose such a ruling, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Favor Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home, by party identification, May 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	89	11
Independent	75	25
Democrat	37	63

Support for possession of a gun outside the home, according to gun ownership, is shown in Table 19, with a large majority of gun households in favor of expanded Second Amendment rights and a bare majority of those without a gun in the home also in favor.

Table 19: Favor Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home, by gun ownership, May 2022

Gun ownership	Favor	Oppose
Gun household	83	17
Not gun household	54	46

Asked about laws that regulate concealed-carry licenses, 62% favor laws that allow someone to carry a concealed weapon if the person has a license to do that, while 38% oppose such laws.

A substantial majority, 81%, are opposed to laws that allow most people to carry concealed handguns without needing to obtain a license, while 19% favor such laws.

Views on these two types of concealed-carry laws are shown by party identification in Table 20.

Table 20: Concealed-carry laws, by party identification, May 2022

(a) Concealed carry with a license

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	85	15
Independent	61	39
Democrat	42	58

(b) Concealed carry without a license requirement

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	32	68
Independent	21	79
Democrat	7	93

Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson favorability

Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson has been confirmed to a seat on the Supreme Court, pending the retirement of Justice Stephen Breyer. In May, 39%, said they had a favorable view of Jackson, and 23% had an unfavorable view, with 38% saying they hadn’t heard enough about her. In March, prior to the confirmation, 44% had a favorable and 18% an unfavorable view, with 38% lacking an opinion.

Partisan divisions in views of Jackson are shown in Table 21. Judge Jackson is viewed unfavorably by a plurality of Republicans and favorably by a majority of Democrats and by a plurality of independents. Close to half of Republicans and independents say they don’t know enough to have an opinion of her. Only about a quarter of Democrats lack an opinion. Following her confirmation process, unfavorable views rose by 7 percentage points among Republicans and by 4 percentage points among independents, while unfavorable opinion rose by 4 percentage points among Democrats. There was little change in familiarity with Jackson across party groups following her confirmation.

Table 21: Favorability to Ketanji Brown Jackson, by party identification, March-May 2022

(a) March 2022

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	17	35	47
Independent	35	15	50
Democrat	72	3	24

(b) May 2022

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	13	42	45
Independent	32	19	48
Democrat	65	7	28

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted May 9-19, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for release one day from now (i.e., on May 25, 2022).

A note concerning wording of questions about possible past and future Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

Favor or oppose possible decisions:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? …

• Overturn Roe versus Wade, thus strike down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.
• Rule that the 2nd Amendment right to “keep and bear arms” protects the right to carry a gun outside the home.
• Rule to uphold a state law that (except in cases of medical emergencies or fetal abnormalities) bans abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy.

Opinion of Texas S.B. 8 law:

• A new Texas law bans abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy, once cardiac activity can be detected, and it allows any private citizen to sue anyone who performs an abortion or assists someone in obtaining an abortion. Do you favor or oppose this law, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

• In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision

Opinion of decision that anti-discrimination laws protect LGBTQ people:

• In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds a tighter Democratic primary for U.S. Senate than in February. In the primary contest, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is supported by 19% of Democrats (including independents who lean Democratic) and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, while Alex Lasry is supported by 16%. Sarah Godlewski is the choice of 7%, and Tom Nelson holds 5%. The other seven candidates received 1% or less support.

Many primary voters remain undecided, with 48% saying they don’t know how they will vote, the same as in the February 2022 survey of the Marquette Law School Poll. There remain more than three months until the primary on Aug. 9.

In the February poll, Barnes was the choice of 23%, while Lasry was favored by 13%. Nelson was the choice of 5% and Godlewski of 3%, with others receiving 2% or less.

Table 1 shows the full results of the April and February polls for the Democratic primary. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Preferences of Democratic primary voters, Feb. and April 2022

Primary choice	April	February
Mandela Barnes	19	23
Alex Lasry	16	13
Sarah Godlewski	7	3
Tom Nelson	5	5
Peter Peckarsky	1	*
Chantia Lewis	1	2
Adam Murphy	*	2
Darrell Williams	*	*
Kou Lee	0	0
Steven Olikara	0	0
Jeff Rumbaugh	0	0
Won’t vote in this primary	3	3
Don’t know	48	48
Refused	1	1
* indicates less than .5% but more than 0

The survey was conducted April 19-24, 2022, interviewing 805 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. The margin of error for 363 likely Democratic primary voters is 6.6 points and for 375 Republican likely primary voters is 5.6 points.

This poll was begun before Tim Michels announced his entry into the Republican gubernatorial primary, and so respondents were not asked about him. Rebecca Kleefisch had the support of 32%, Kevin Nicholson 10%, and Tim Ramthun 4%, while 46% said they did not know whom they would support. Table 2 shows the GOP primary preferences in April and in February.

Table 2: Preferences of Republican primary voters, Feb. and April 2022

Primary choice	April	February
Rebecca Kleefisch	32	30
Kevin Nicholson	10	8
Tim Ramthun	4	5
Someone else	3	1
Will not vote in Republican primary	3	1
Don’t know	46	54
Refused	1	2

Confidence in election accuracy

Doubt about the accuracy of the 2020 election results has been a major issue for Republicans since former President Donald Trump questioned the outcome after that election. In Wisconsin, about two-thirds of Republicans have expressed little or no confidence in that election result.

The April 2022 elections provide an opportunity to measure election confidence outside the 2020 presidential race. Respondents were asked, “On April 5, Wisconsin held elections for school boards, judges, local and county positions, and other offices. How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, these votes were accurately cast and counted in the April election?” Among all registered voters, 52% say they are very confident and 32% say they are somewhat confident in the accuracy of the April election, while 7% are not too confident and 7% are not at all confident in the result.

Table 3 shows confidence in the April 2022 election by party identification. In the analysis here and below, each party includes those independents who lean to the party, while independents are those who do not identify with or lean to either party. Democrats are much more likely to say they are very confident than either independents or Republicans, but no more than a quarter of any party group say they are not too confident or not at all confident in the spring election. More than three-quarters of Republicans, 76%, report themselves as very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of this election.

Table 3: Confidence in accuracy of April 2022 election, by party, April 2022

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know
Republican	32	44	10	11	3
Independent	34	33	10	15	7
Democrat	77	19	2	1	1

In contrast, doubts about the 2020 election remain higher, especially among Republicans. Respondents were asked, “How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?” Looking back at 2020, 48% of all respondents say they are very confident in the results and 16% are somewhat confident, while 12% are not too confident and 23% are not at all confident. The partisan divide is especially sharp, and much greater than for the April 2022 election, as shown in Table 4. Almost three times as many Republicans have low confidence in the 2020 result as doubt the April 2022 outcome: 62% compared to 21%, respectively.

Table 4: Confidence in accuracy of November 2020 election, by party, April 2022

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know
Republican	15	21	21	41	1
Independent	36	23	11	27	2
Democrat	85	9	3	3	1

Gableman election investigation

Thirteen percent of Wisconsin voters approve of how former state supreme court justice Michael Gableman has handled a review of the 2020 election, while 27% disapprove. More than half, 57%, say they haven’t heard enough about the review to have an opinion, and another 2% say they don’t know. Table 5 shows approval of the Gableman investigation since Oct. 2021.

Table 5: Approval of Gableman election review, by survey, Oct. 2021 & April 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
10/26-31/21	11	22	65	2
4/19-24/22	13	27	57	2

Given the much higher level of doubt about the 2020 election among Republicans, it is striking that most Republicans are unlikely to have an opinion of the investigation by Gableman. Table 6 shows opinion of the election review, by party. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans, 64%, say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion, while just over half of Democrats, 50%, haven’t heard enough.

Table 6: Approval of Gableman election review, by party identification, April 2022

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Republican	21	13	64	2
Independent	14	23	58	2
Democrat	4	43	50	2

Decertifying the 2020 election

When asked if the legislature should vote to “decertify” the results of the 2020 presidential election, 25% say it should vote to do that, while 62% say it should not and 12% say they do not know. Opinion about decertifying the election, by party identification, is shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Decertify 2020 presidential election, by party, April 2022

Party ID	Should decertify	Should not act to decertify	Don’t know
Republican	36	50	12
Independent	27	51	21
Democrat	13	78	8

Enthusiasm to vote

Republicans and Democrats are about equally enthusiastic about voting in the November elections, with 57% of Republicans and 57% of Democrats saying they are very enthusiastic.

This close balance in enthusiasm was also present in 2020, though with greater enthusiasm in both parties. Across all 2020 Marquette Law School Poll surveys, 67% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats said they were very enthusiastic.

The recent trend in enthusiasm by party is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Enthusiasm to vote in 2022 election, Oct. 2021-April 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic	Don’t know
Republican	10/26-31/21	63	21	9	6	2
Republican	2/22-27/22	58	22	11	7	1
Republican	4/19-24/22	57	24	9	9	1
Independent	10/26-31/21	43	22	10	23	2
Independent	2/22-27/22	43	30	10	14	4
Independent	4/19-24/22	35	32	15	14	5
Democrat	10/26-31/21	59	25	9	5	1
Democrat	2/22-27/22	56	25	12	5	2
Democrat	4/19-24/22	57	27	6	8	1

Among Republicans, those who are least confident in the accuracy of the 2020 are more enthusiastic to vote in 2022, while those most confident in the election result are less enthusiastic to vote. Table 9 shows the relationship, combining the three polls since Oct. 2021.

Table 9: Enthusiasm to vote in 2022 election, by confidence in 2020 election, among Republicans, Oct. 2021-April 2022

Confidence in 2020	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic	Don’t know
Very confident	46	25	17	12	0
Somewhat confident	52	26	15	5	2
Not too confident	61	28	7	3	1
Not at all confident	69	16	5	9	1

Opinions of Gov. Tony Evers

Approval of how Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is handling his job as governor stands at 49% in April, with 43% disapproval and 7% saying they don’t know. Table 10 shows the trend in Evers’ job approval since 2020.

Table 10: Evers job approval, 2019-2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
1/16-20/19	39	22	38
4/3-7/19	47	37	15
8/25-29/19	54	34	10
10/13-17/19	52	34	13
11/13-17/19	47	42	10
12/3-8/19	50	38	11
1/8-12/20	51	40	9
2/19-23/20	51	38	10
3/24-29/20	65	29	6
5/3-7/20	59	33	7
6/14-18/20	54	38	6
8/4-9/20	57	37	6
8/30-9/3/20	51	43	5
9/30-10/4/20	52	42	5
10/21-25/20	50	43	7
8/3-8/21	50	43	7
10/26-31/21	45	46	8
2/22-27/22	50	41	8
4/19-24/22	49	43	7

Sixty percent approve of the way Evers has handled the coronavirus outbreak, while 38% disapprove and 2% say they don’t know. The trend since the outbreak of the pandemic is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Evers handling of coronavirus approval, 2020-2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
3/24-29/20	76	17	7
5/3-7/20	64	32	4
6/14-18/20	58	37	4
8/4-9/20	61	35	4
8/30-9/3/20	57	38	4
9/30-10/4/20	56	38	5
10/21-25/20	52	45	3
8/3-8/21	54	39	7
10/26-31/21	53	40	7
4/19-24/22	60	38	2

On Evers’ handling of education issues, 51% approve, 38% disapprove, and 11% say they don’t know. This question has not been asked before.

Evers is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 42%, while 7% say they haven’t heard enough and 3% say they don’t know. The trend in Evers’ favorability rating is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Evers favorability trend, 2019-2022

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/16-20/19	41	24	28	6
4/3-7/19	48	35	12	5
8/25-29/19	49	35	11	5
10/13-17/19	47	35	13	5
11/13-17/19	43	41	12	3
12/3-8/19	45	37	12	5
1/8-12/20	45	37	14	3
2/19-23/20	43	40	12	4
3/24-29/20	54	28	11	6
5/3-7/20	50	36	7	5
6/14-18/20	54	37	7	2
8/4-9/20	52	35	9	4
8/30-9/3/20	47	41	9	2
9/30-10/4/20	47	40	9	3
10/21-25/20	47	43	8	2
8/3-8/21	46	42	8	3
10/26-31/21	42	45	9	4
2/22-27/22	47	41	7	4
4/19-24/22	47	42	7	3

Asked if “cares about people like me” describes Evers, 54% say this describes him, while 40% say it does not describe him and 6% say they don’t know. This question has not been asked about Evers before.

Opinions of Sen. Ron Johnson

Thirty-nine percent say “cares about people like me” describes Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, 50% say it does not describe him, and 11% say they don’t know. This question was last asked during the 2016 campaign. The trend is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Johnson cares about people like me, trend, 2016-2022

Poll dates	Describes	Does not describe	Don’t know
8/25-28/16	38	38	23
9/15-18/16	36	43	20
10/6-9/16	44	38	18
10/26-31/16	43	39	17
4/19-24/22	39	50	11

Johnson is seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 46%, while 14% say they haven’t heard enough and 4% say they don’t know. The trend in Johnson’s favorability ratings since 2019 is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Johnson favorability, trend, 2019-2022

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/16-20/19	44	28	23	5
4/3-7/19	40	32	24	5
8/25-29/19	40	29	25	6
10/13-17/19	40	29	24	6
11/13-17/19	39	29	24	7
12/3-8/19	36	34	26	4
1/8-12/20	39	29	28	3
2/19-23/20	37	34	24	5
3/24-29/20	35	32	29	4
5/3-7/20	38	34	23	5
6/14-18/20	35	32	29	3
8/4-9/20	33	35	27	4
8/30-9/3/20	32	36	28	5
9/30-10/4/20	35	31	27	7
10/21-25/20	38	36	23	3
8/3-8/21	35	42	20	3
10/26-31/21	36	42	18	4
2/22-27/22	33	45	17	4
4/19-24/22	36	46	14	4

Issues facing Wisconsin

Respondents remain unhappy with the direction of the state, with 36% saying the state is headed in the right direction and 56% saying the state is off on the wrong track. Views of the direction of the state turned sharply downward during 2020, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Right direction or wrong track, trend, 2020-2022

Poll dates	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know
1/8-12/20	46	47	6
2/19-23/20	52	39	8
3/24-29/20	61	30	9
8/3-8/21	39	52	9
10/26-31/21	41	51	7
2/22-27/22	39	53	8
4/19-24/22	36	56	7

Voters remain very concerned about inflation, while concern about coronavirus has fallen to a new low. Concerns over education, illegal immigration, and crime fall between these extremes. These issue concerns for April 2022 are shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Issue concerns, April 2022

Issue	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned	Don’t know
Inflation	69	23	6	1	0
Public education	50	37	9	3	0
Illegal immigration	38	18	22	21	1
Crime in your community	27	25	28	18	1
Coronavirus pandemic	22	30	21	26	1

A substantial majority of respondents, 82%, say they feel safe from crime when going about their daily activities, while 17% say they worry about crime in their daily life.

Worry about crime is highest among residents of the City of Milwaukee, followed by those in the rest of the Milwaukee media market and in the Madison media market. Those in the Green Bay media market or in the rest of the north and west of the state are least worried by crime, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Feel safe or worry about crime in daily life, by region, April 2022

Region	Feel safe	Worried	Don’t know
City of Milwaukee	63	37	0
Rest of Milwaukee media market	80	19	1
Madison media market	82	17	1
Green Bay media market	90	10	1
Rest of north and west of state	86	14	0

Education issues

A substantial majority of respondents are satisfied or very satisfied with the public schools in their community. Sixteen percent say they are very satisfied, and 47% say they are satisfied, while 19% are dissatisfied and 13% are very dissatisfied, with 4% saying they don’t know. The trend in satisfaction with public schools is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Satisfaction with public schools in your community, trend, 2012-2022

Poll dates	Very satisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Very dissatisfied	Mixed feelings (VOL)	Don’t know
4/26-29/12	23	43	17	10	2	4
5/9-12/12	23	44	18	7	1	5
5/23-26/12	23	48	17	7	2	4
4/7-10/15	25	50	16	5	1	2
3/13-16/17	25	49	14	6	2	4
9/12-16/18	18	46	17	8	5	6
1/8-12/20	15	44	22	11	2	6
8/3-8/21	22	47	15	6	2	7
10/26-31/21	25	35	18	13	2	8
4/19-24/22	16	47	19	13	1	4

Given two options, a slight majority, 50%, of those with an opinion say it is more important to increase spending on public schools, while a large minority, 46%, say it is more important to reduce property taxes and 4% say they don’t know. This is one of the longest-running issues surveyed by the Marquette Law School Poll, and over time it has shown substantial changes in the balance between property taxes and school spending. Table 19 shows the trend for all surveys that have included this question. Preference for school spending reached its peak in 2018 and has declined since, while preference for reducing property taxes was highest in 2013 before falling in 2018 and then relatively rising since.

Table 19: Which is more important: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools, 2013-2022

Poll dates	Reducing property taxes	Increasing spending on public schools	Don’t know
3/11-13/13	49	46	4
5/6-9/13	49	46	4
4/7-10/15	40	54	5
2/25-3/1/18	33	63	3
6/13-17/18	35	59	5
8/15-19/18	32	61	5
9/12-16/18	38	57	5
10/3-7/18	37	57	6
10/24-28/18	40	55	4
1/16-20/19	39	55	6
1/8-12/20	41	55	4
2/19-23/20	38	56	5
8/3-8/21	42	52	5
4/19-24/22	46	50	4

Extending vouchers for students to attend private or religious schools statewide and without family income limits is supported by 58%. It is opposed by 33%, while 8% say they don’t know. Support for vouchers is related to satisfaction with public schools, although a majority of those satisfied with schools are also in favor of vouchers, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Support for vouchers, by satisfaction with public schools, April 2022

Satisfaction with schools	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Satisfied or very satisfied	55	38	7
Dissatisfied or very dissatisfied	69	25	7

Parental influence over public school curricula has emerged as a national issue recently. In this poll, 31% say parents should play the biggest role in curriculum choice, while 35% say teachers should, 18% say school boards, and 7% say superintendents and principals. Four percent say the state legislature should set curriculum.

Other issues

A substantial majority, 69%, favor the state’s current law allowing a license for concealed carry of handguns, with 26% opposed and 5% who don’t know. In contrast, a proposal to allow concealed handguns without the need for a license is supported by only 16% and opposed by 82%, with 2% saying they don’t know.

Support for same-sex marriage remains strong in Wisconsin, and has gained support over time. Seventy-two percent support marriage for gay and lesbian couples, while 19% oppose and 8% say they don’t know. The trend of this over time is shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Support for same-sex marriage, trend, 2014-2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know	Refused
5/15-18/14	55	37	6	2
10/9-12/14	64	30	5	2
10/23-26/14	56	34	7	3
6/9-12/16	64	28	4	4
2/19-23/20	68	25	6	1
4/19-24/22	72	19	8	1

Support for gay and lesbian marriages has increased in each partisan group, with majorities in each party now in favor. Table 22(a) and Table 22(b) compare support by party in May 2014 to April 2022.

Table 22: Support for same sex marriage, by party, 2014 and 2022

(a) May 2014

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	30	63	5	2
Independent	43	29	26	2
Democrat	77	19	3	1

(b) April 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	58	31	9	2
Independent	82	9	9	0
Democrat	84	8	8	0

A majority, 64%, say that undocumented immigrants who are currently in the United States should be allowed to stay and eventually apply for citizenship, while 16% say they should be able to stay but only as guest workers and 16% say they should be required to leave the United States.

Opinion concerning what should be done about undocumented immigrants is sharply different among those who are “very concerned” about illegal immigration and those with any lesser level of concern, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Options for undocumented immigrants, by concern over illegal immigration, April 2022

Concern over illegal immigration	Stay and apply for citizenship	Stay as temporary guest workers	Required to leave jobs and U.S.	Don’t know
Very concerned	34	23	38	5
Somewhat concerned	74	23	4	0
Not too concerned	81	14	1	4
Not at all concerned	82	9	5	3

Partisan differences on immigration are substantial, although almost half of Republicans favor a policy of eventual application for citizenship for undocumented immigrants currently in the United States, as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Options for undocumented immigrants, by party identification, April 2022

Party identification	Stay and apply for citizenship	Stay as temporary guest workers	Required to leave jobs and U.S.	Don’t know
Republican	47	20	28	4
Independent	62	11	19	6
Democrat	83	12	2	2

Opinion of other elected officials

Approval of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job as president is 43%, while disapproval is 53%. The trend in Biden approval, since the question was first asked during his presidency, is shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Biden job approval, August 2021-April 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
8/3-8/21	49	46	4
10/26-31/21	43	53	4
2/22-27/22	43	52	3
4/19-24/22	43	53	3

Thirty-eight percent approve of the way the state legislature has been handing its job, while 47% disapprove. This trend is shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Wisconsin legislature job approval, January 2019-April 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
1/16-20/19	52	31	16
4/3-7/19	50	38	11
8/25-29/19	52	38	8
11/13-17/19	48	39	13
2/19-23/20	46	40	13
5/3-7/20	46	40	13
10/21-25/20	36	50	13
8/3-8/21	39	48	13
10/26-31/21	38	48	14
2/22-27/22	37	46	16
4/19-24/22	38	47	14

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seen favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 36%, with 17% who say they haven’t heard enough and 3% who don’t know. The recent trend in favorability of Baldwin is shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Tammy Baldwin favorability, January 2019-April 2022

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/16-20/19	45	41	11	3
4/3-7/19	44	43	10	3
8/25-29/19	44	40	13	3
10/13-17/19	46	39	11	3
11/13-17/19	39	43	12	5
12/3-8/19	42	39	14	3
1/8-12/20	44	40	13	2
2/19-23/20	43	40	13	3
3/24-29/20	40	39	16	4
5/3-7/20	45	37	14	3
6/14-18/20	40	38	19	3
8/4-9/20	43	36	17	3
8/30-9/3/20	42	35	19	3
9/30-10/4/20	41	35	20	3
10/21-25/20	44	36	15	4
8/3-8/21	40	38	19	3
10/26-31/21	38	39	19	3
2/22-27/22	42	36	18	3
4/19-24/22	43	36	17	3

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is seen favorably by 12% and unfavorably by 29%, with 49% who haven’t heard enough about him and 9% who say they don’t know. The trend in favorability to Vos is shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Robin Vos favorability, January 2019-April 2022

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/16-20/19	13	17	59	11
4/3-7/19	14	21	56	10
8/25-29/19	15	20	52	13
2/22-27/22	13	28	50	9
4/19-24/22	12	29	49	9

Vice-president Kamala Harris is viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 50%, with 9% who haven’t heard enough and 2% who say they don’t know.

Former President Donald Trump is seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 58%, with 2% who haven’t heard enough and 3% who say they don’t know. In February he was seen favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 57%.

The Black Lives Matter movement is seen favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 43%, with 9% who haven’t heard enough and 5% who say they don’t know. In February it was seen favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 35%.

Favorability ratings of Senate and governor primary candidates

The favorability ratings of the leading candidates in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary and the Republican gubernatorial primary are shown below. The high percentages who haven’t heard enough show that many voters have not yet tuned into these primaries. Table 29(a) shows opinions among all registered voters, and Table 29 (b) shows opinion among Democratic primary voters.

Table 29: Favorability toward top four Democratic Senate primary candidates, April 2022

(a) Among all registered voters

Candidate	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Mandela Barnes	19	16	57	7
Alex Lasry	16	11	62	10
Sarah Godlewski	12	8	71	9
Tom Nelson	8	5	77	10

(b) Among Democratic primary voters

Candidate	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Mandela Barnes	37	4	51	8
Alex Lasry	24	5	60	11
Sarah Godlewski	18	4	70	9
Tom Nelson	11	3	74	11

Favorability toward the Republican gubernatorial candidates is shown in Table 30(a) for all registered voters and in Table 30 (b) for Republican primary voters. Tim Michels entered the race after this poll had begun and thus was not included.

Table 30: Favorability toward top three Republican gubernatorial primary candidates, April 2022

(a) Among all registered voters

Candidate	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Rebecca Kleefisch	27	25	42	7
Kevin Nicholson	13	7	69	11
Tim Ramthun	5	7	77	10

(b) Among Republican primary voters

Candidate	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Rebecca Kleefisch	45	13	38	5
Kevin Nicholson	21	4	65	9
Tim Ramthun	7	6	78	8

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 805 Wisconsin registered voters by landline or cell phone from April 19-24, 2022. The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error for 363 Democratic primary voters is 6.6 points and for 375 Republican primary voters is 5.6 points. The unweighted sample sizes are 311 for the Democratic and 413 for the Republican primary samples. All tables and analyses are based on the weighted sample.

Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 400 respondents and have a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 405 respondents and have a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples included on Form A whether Wisconsin is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, concern for inflation, public education, the coronavirus pandemic, illegal immigration, and crime in the community. Form B items included school curriculum, vouchers, importance of property tax reduction or increased spending on public schools, licensed and unlicensed concealed handgun carry, and support for same sex marriage.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 9% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 40% independent.

Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45% Republican and 44 % Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean has been 29% Republican and 28 % Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.